The Climate Information & Prediction Services (CLIPS) Project (of WMO) – The Tool Box

concept

A. MokssitDirector Met Service Morocco

Chair of OPAG3 (CLIPS)IPCC WG1 vice chair

Outline

Introduction-Generalities-Examples of succes stories

GFCS Objectives CLIPS project: the status Moroccan experience with CLIPS From CLIPS to GFCS: CLIPS ToolBox Conclusion

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فيضانات مترددةفيضانات مترددة

20052005اوريكا اوريكا

20002000تطوان تطوان

20062006مرزوكا مرزوكا

20082008دار الدريوش دار الدريوش

20022002المحمدية المحمدية

20092009الرباط الرباط

Some succes stories

Dam managmnt Forest plainting Agricultural campagne Extreme event

Flood (Ourika 95=300 deaths, Ourika 2OO7= 1 deaths but same infrastructure damage

Build user confidence4

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Climate Services The term “climate services” refers to the delivery of

climate information and predictions from the scientific sources to end-users

A service is a service only when it is used; our goal is to make people use climate services in real-world context

Climate information is just one of the elements in the decision making matrix

Databases of information gathered over many years; NMHSs have great potential to exploit these resources to provide “effective” climate services

Predictions of climate variability over the next season (or seasonal to interannual forecasts) are of immediate relevance of the ability of users to act on the basis of climate information

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Climate Prediction Framework

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Forecast Forecast UncertaintyUncertaintyForecast Forecast UncertaintyUncertainty

Initial Conditions

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Scenarios

Anthropogenic Forcing

Climate Change.

Adapted from: NOAA

Decades

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Global Framework Climate Services Objective

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and its partner organizations co-sponsoring WCC-3 propose the establishment of a new Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) to:

“enable climate adaptation and climate risk management through the incorporation of science-based climate information and prediction into policy and practice at all levels.”

GFCS will have four major components: Observation and Monitoring; Research and Modeling; a Climate Services Information System; and a Climate Services Application Programme.

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CLIPS project: the status

Since 1999

 Congress-XIII (1999) agreed to the following four slightly refined objectives for the continuing implementation of the CLIPS project, which are still valid:

(a) To demonstrate the value and eventual socio-economic benefits of climate information and prediction services;

(b) To provide an international framework to enhance and promote climate information and prediction, including the establishment of criteria to measure forecast quality and to permit model intercomparison;

(c) To encourage the development of operational climate prediction;

(d) To facilitate the definition, the development and the strengthening of a global network of regional/national climate centres 9

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CLIPS (1/2) The CLIPS project builds on:

The past decades of successful atmospheric and oceanographic research (e.g., Climate/ENSO predictability; Coupled atmosphere-ocean modelling, …);

Improved climate monitoring (e.g., TAO buoys) and data management capabilities;

A developing capability to predict climate on monthly, seasonal and interannual time scales, and regional space scales;

Effective networking of climate providers as well as users, and the development of consensus approach to climate outlooks (RCOFs, El Niño/La Niña update);

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CLIPS (2/2) Mechanisms to provide climate services

involving global (GPCs: Global Producing Centres) and regional climate centres (e.g., DMCs, ACMAD, CIIFEN, RCCs), as well as the NMHSs;

Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs) Training of experts from NMHSs (CLIPS

National Focal Points) and end-users (RCOFs, CLIPS Curriculum).

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CLIPS Infrastructure and Forecasting

Access to Global Producing Centres; Regional Climate Centres; Examination of forecast presentation methods; Best practices; Downscaling and Regional Climate Models; Development of Regional Climate Outlook

Forums; Joint activities with research programmes such

as WCRP to bring in state-of-art science into climate services.

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CLIPSApplications Coordination of demonstration and pilot

projects; Involvement of Focal Points in

demonstration and pilot projects; Partnership with application sectors at

national, regional and global levels Examination of improved project design; Examination of impacts of climate

services on applications; Examination of data requirements.

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Capacity Building

Establish and network CLIPS Focal Points A global network of climate scientists/service providers

specially trained in climate science, statistical modelling and prediction, applications and project management.

These CLIPS Focal Points ensure national and regional coordination of climate information and prediction products.

Reporting of CLIPS activities by CLIPS Focal Points, and sharing the experiences through WMO.

Development of CLIPS Training Curriculum Regional/sub-regional CLIPS Training Workshops User-awareness development through workshops,

projects and Climate Outlook Forums

The CLIPS Curriculum is structured into 5 groups, which, all in all, brings together more than 70 individual modules/presentations as of 2009:

 

Background and Science

Climate and Climatology

Forecast, Models and Verfications

Tools

Applications

 

(cf. http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/wcasp/clips/modules/clips_modules.html)

 

Short evaluation: The CLIPS Curriculum evolution experienced an enthusiastic start. Within a relatively short period during 1999 to 2001, many high-quality modules were provided by well-known specialists. It turned out, however, that further expanding and updating the modules and developing them into standard training modules and courses have been a challenge. Currently, conceptual considerations are under way to update the Curriculum considering support to climate change adaptation and climate risk management as priorities and to ensure its sustainability.

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Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs)

A component of CLIPS First established in 1996: Meeting in Victoria Falls, Zimbabwe. Regional mechanism for the formulation and dissemination of

climate forecasts and outlooks Bring together providers of and users of SIPs. RCOFs, initiated just prior to the major 1997–1998 El Niño

event, constitute an important vehicle in developing regions for providing advance information on the likely climate features of the upcoming season, and for developing a consensus product from amongst the multiple available individual predictions.

RCOFs stimulate the development of climate capacity in the NMHSs of the area, and do much to generate decisions and activities that mitigate adverse impacts of climate and help communities adapt to climate variability.

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CLIPS - RCOFs

• Regular Forums in some regions where NMHSs meet to develop regional consensus on SIPs.

• Several forums held throughout the world, notably in Africa, South America, Central America, Pacific Islands and Asia.

Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum

(GHACOF)

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GHACOF covers the countries Burundi, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Sudan, Somalia, Tanzania and Uganda. GHACOF is being coordinated by the IGAD (Inter-Governmental Authority on Development) Climate Prediction and Application Centre (ICPAC), Nairobi, Kenya. The latest GHACOF statement as well as previous statements are available at: GHACOF Statements

Southern African Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF)

SARCOF is a regional climate outlook prediction and application process adopted by the fourteen countries comprising the Southern African Development Community (SADC) Member States: Angola, Botswana, Democratic Republic of Congo, Lesotho, Malawi, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, Seychelles, South Africa, Swaziland, Tanzania, Zambia and Zimbabwe in conjunction with other partners. SARCOF is coordinated by the SADC Drought Monitoring Centre (SADC-DMC), Gaborone, Botswana. The latest SARCOF statement as well as previous statements are available at:SARCOF Statements

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RCOF for West Africa (PRESAO : PRÉvisions Saisonnières en Afrique de l'Ouest)

PRESAO, a Regional Climate Outlook Forum (RCOF) activity dedicated to West Africa, is coordinated by the African Centre of Meteorological Application for Development (ACMAD), Niamey, Niger. The latest PRESAO statement as well as previous statements and other related climate outlook products are available at: PRESAO statements 20

FOCRAII : Forum on Regional Climate Monitoring, Assessment and Prediction for Regional Association II

(Asia)

FOCRAII covers all the countries in Asia, most of them part of the WMO Regional Association II. Beijing Climate Center (BCC) of China Meteorological Administration (CMA) has been coordinating FOCRAII activities. The latest seasonal outlook produced by FOCRAII and other related information is available at:

FOCRAII Statement

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Western Coast of South America Climate Outlook Forum (WCSACOF)

WCSACOF is coordinated by Centro Internacional para la Investigación del Fenómeno de El Niño (CIIFEN, International Research Centre on El Niño), Guayaquil, Ecuador. The countries participating in this RCOF are: Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Perú and Venezuela. The latest seasonal outlook produced by WCSACOF, other forecast products of CIIFEN for the region and related information, in Spanish, is available at: WCSACOF Statements

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Southeast of South America Climate Outlook Forum (SSACOF)

The countries participating in this SSACOF are: Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay. The RCOF is coordinated by each of the participant countries by rotation, and the latest seasonal outlook and related products may be obtained from the web sites of the respectiveNMHSs:

Argentina: http://www.smn.gov.ar/ Brazil: http://www.inmet.gov.br/ Paraguay:

http://www.meteorologia.gov.py/ Uruguay:

http://www.meteorologia.com.uy/ 23

The Pacific Islands: The Island Climate Update

The Island Climate Update (ICU) is a multi-national and multi-organisational monthly climate bulletin with a primary goal of assisting Pacific Island Countries (PICs) in making informed planning and management decisions relating to climate sensitive sectors through the provision of timely and accurate seasonal climate forecasts. It is published monthly both in print and online by the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) in New Zealand and is funded by the New Zealand Agency for International Development (NZAID). The participating countries/islands are: American Samoa, Australia, Cook Islands, Fiji, French Polynesia, Kiribati, New Caledonia, New Zealand, Niue, Papua New Guinea, Pitcairn Island, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tokelau, Tonga, Tuvalu, Vanuatu, Wallis and Futuna. The latest ICU is available at:

http://www.niwascience.co.nz/ncc/icu/ 24

Pacific Islands online Climate Outlook Forum (PICOF)

PICOF is coordinated by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology as part of the Pacific Islands - Climate Prediction Project (PI-CPP) funded by the Australian Agency for International Development (AusAID). The countries participating in this monthly forum are: Cook Islands, Fiji, Kiribati, Niue, Papua New Guinea, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tonga, Tuvalu and Vanuatu. Participants use a statistical-based model developed under the Project, called SCOPIC, to run the seasonal climate outlooks for the upcoming three-month period. The latest PICOF summary and individual country seasonal climate forecasts are available at:

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/pi-cpp/clim_forecasts.shtml

PI-CPP link:http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/pi-cpp/25

Climate Outlook Forum for Central America

The Climate Forum of Central America reviews and discusses the oceanic and atmospheric conditions latest forecasts of global models and their implications in the patterns of rainfall and temperature in Central America, as well as national-level analysis provided by each of Meteorological and Hydrological Services in the Region and develops a consensus seasonal climate outlook. The countries participating in this forum are: Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panamá. The latest climate outlook for this region is available at:

http://www.aguayclima.com/clima/inicio.htm26

Southeastern Europe Climate Outlook Forum (SEECOF)

The Southeastern Europe Climate Outlook Forum (SEECOF) is the very first regional climate outlook forum in Europe. The inaugural session of SEECOF was held in Zagreb, Croatia, during 11-12 June 2008. The countries participating in SEECOF are: Hungary, Slovenia, Croatia, Serbia, Bosnia, Montenegro, Albania, the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Greece, Turkey, Bulgaria, Rumania, Moldova, Armenia, Georgia and Azerbaijan. Further details on SEECOF are available at:

http://meteo.hr/SEECOF08/27

Climate Outlook for Cricket in the Caribbean: The Outfield

There is no doubt as to how influential the rain can be in cricket. We just need to look back at the past cricket series around the world to find several tests and one-day games simply ‘washed out’ due to rain. "The Outfield" is an innovative product of the Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH), dedicated to weather and climate information relevant to the game of cricket, including outlooks for the upcoming cricket events in the Caribbean. The latest issue as well as the previous issues of "The Outfield" are available at:

http://www.cimh.edu.bb/28

RCOFs are in operation in many parts of the world, mainly serving developing countries:

 

- CCOF Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum

- FCCA Foro Regional del Clima de América Central- FOCRAII Forum On regional Climate monitoring, assessment and prediction

for Regional Association II (Asia)

- GHACOF Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum

- PICOF Pacific Islands Climate Outlook Forum

- PRESAC Prévision Saisonnière en Afrique Centrale

- PRESAO Prévision Saisonnière en Afrique de l’Ouest

- SARCOF Southern Africa Climate Outlook Forum

- SEECOF SouthEastern Europe Climate Outlook Forum

- SSACOF Southeast of South America Climate Outlook Forum

- WCSACOF Western Coast of South America Climate Outlook Forum

 

In some of the regions, RCOF products have been expanded from rainfall and temperature outlooks in the early years to river discharge, food security and malaria outlooks.

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Regional Climate Centres (RCCs) RCCs will be Centres of Excellence, designated by CBS and

CCl, to perform regional-scale climate functions, including: Operational LRF and Climate Monitoring Coordination between RCCs, GPCs and NMHSs in the

region Data services Climate Applications Training and capacity building Research and Development

RCCs will be complementary to and supportive of NMHSs, who will deliver all Warnings and national-scale products

Establishment of RCCs will be initiated by Regional Associations, based on regional needs and priorities

RAs will ensure guidance for and coordination between RCCs

ET 3.1 worked on the development of a guidance document on best practices in downscaling, the preliminary draft of which is available. The focus of the guidance document is seasonal prediction, although the concepts are also relevant to downscaling of climate change scenariosConsidering that downscaling is a crucial activity for both domains whatever the method used (statistical, dynamical or hybrid),

ET 3.1developed a draft statement on the Multi-Model Ensemble (MME approach).

ET 3.1 has developed a guidance document on consensus methods for seasonal forecasts. The relevant aspects of the RCOF Review 2008 outcomes have also been integrated into this document.

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Expert Team on Research Needs for Intraseasonal, Seasonal and Interannual Prediction, including the

Applications of these Predictions) ET 3.1 with the involvement of ET 3.2 developed a

new design for RCOF operations for Western Africa in collaboration with ACMAD, IRI and Météo-France. This has been endorsed by PRESAO-12.

ET 3.1 noted that decadal prediction will fill the gap between seasonal prediction and climate change: Seasonal to interannual prediction may be considered as the first step to implement adaptation to climate change.

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ET 3.1 has actively contributed to: capacity building in CLIPS training activities, and also in facilitating the use of Climate Predictability Tool (CPT)

developed by the IRI. The ET agreed that CPT is a very useful and practical tool

for operational seasonal prediction, and that a critical review along with other similar packages can help in its wider usage.

The ET has worked towards creating a resource base for sustained CPT training and development.

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The IRI Climate Predictability Tool:Example of Calibrating (“Correcting”)the Precipitation Forecast of an AGCM

Procedure to access to CPT: Downloading CPT from the IRI Web Site Go to the IRI’s home page: http://iri.columbia.edu/ Click on “Outreach Education” Click on “Climate Predictability Tool” Click where it says: download the self-installation

file (size: ~5.0MB) Note that you need more than 5 megabytes of

storage, and preferably at least five times this much because some of the data sets may be large.

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CLIPS Operations, Verification and User Liaison

- A draft updated version of Technical Note 145, with a revised title of “Socio-economic Benefits of Climate Services” was compiled by ET 3.2 consisting of a collection of sector-specific papers written by a wide range of experts.

- The papers were edited by Dr Mickey Glantz, and the final version is being processed for publication as a technical document.

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- ET 3.2 developed a Draft guidance on best practices for verification of seasonal forecasts to complement CBS guidelines on standardized verification systems (SVS).

- The draft has been peer reviewed, and the revised final draft is under preparation.

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- ACMAD and IRI have prepared a comprehensive verification of RCOF products in Africa. It was also presented at the recent RCOF Review held in 2008.

- ET 3.2 played a key role in this verification project, and recommends that training materials on verification be developed based on these new documents.

- The RCOFs concept is being extended to northern latitudes, and was discussed with a broad audience at the recent Polar CLIPS workshop in St. Petersburg, Russian Federation.

- The concept of a Polar Climate Outlook Forum (PCOF) has received considerable encouragement, and is recognized as a WMO contribution to the IPY Legacy.

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El Niño and La Niña WMO has been successfully issuing consensus-based El

Niño/La Niña Updates, which are well-received worldwide. ET 3.3 actively participated in the development of these El

Niño/La Niña updates, and also provided guidance on their structure and development process.

ET 3.3 discussed the development of an Atlas on impacts of El Niño/La Niña, and developed an outline and some demonstrative examples.

The ET recommends that the initial version of the atlas may be in the form of web-based products, which can gradually pave the way for a stable hard copy version. Through informal consultations,

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Moroccan experience with CLIPSUtilization of CLIPS Tool Box:LRF concept, verification and operationis tailored coherence with guidelines of ET 1, ET2 activities . User liason is inspired from the RCOF concept (to be compared with the guidlines of user-liason)As a corelation is istablished between El Nino pattern and late rainy season a Close monitoring of El Nino conditions is performed

Climate Service Existing solutions at international level

Capacity to implement this solution at national level

Resources to be provided and Actions to be taken to implement the solution at national level

Acompagining mesures to ensure sustainability

Water resource planing

Yes: reservoir 3 layer modelling

Partly Atmospheric model OK

International, sectoral, political support and partnership

Operational chaine maintenance and upgrading, communication and end user dialogue, Qmformalism,,,

CLIPS TOOL BOX involvement

Guidlines, statments, research founding, succes stories (CLIPS ET1 area and rapporteurs)

Benchhmark of similar countriesExisting transferable applications and toolsCLIPS focal pointsCLIPS ET2 area and rapporteurs)

Existing permanent product as EL Nino statement,

CLIPS Curriculum CLIPS all Expert Team areas and rapporteurs

End user liason, verification tools

Continuous training and invitations of new comers.RCOFs, NCOFs,

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Seasonal forecasts

Climate monitoring

Climate research and applications

Drought monitoring and early warning of drought

END-USERS

Climate change

Moroccan Experience .... and CLIPS

DEVELOPPEMENT

Implementation of a seasonal forecast Implementation of a seasonal forecast systemsystem

Seasonal forecast of two meteorological parameters :

precipitation and temperature

In order to : Help decision makers to plan economic activities in

advance, Reduce the harmful effects of droughts, Manage water resources and agricultural activities…

Implementation of a seasonal forecast Implementation of a seasonal forecast systemsystem

- Prospecting different ways: statistical, dynamical, statistico-dynamical

- Evaluation of the relationship between Moroccan precipitation and large scale fields (SST, NAO, NHTP, ENSO, …..)

- Installation, adaptation and evaluation of Climate model

- Bulletins for seasonal forecasts

Evaluating the link between Moroccan climate Evaluating the link between Moroccan climate and large scale fieldsand large scale fields

Relationship betwwen NAO and Moroccan precipitation: winter season

Evaluating the link between Moroccan climate Evaluating the link between Moroccan climate and large scale fieldsand large scale fields

Correlation between SST and Moroccan precipitation.

Different types of forecasts:Different types of forecasts:- Ensemble forecasts (9 to 18 members)- Ensemble forecasts (9 to 18 members)-Deterministic forecasts: anomalies, by classes (terciles, Deterministic forecasts: anomalies, by classes (terciles, quintiles, …)quintiles, …)-Probabilistic forecasts (Probabilistic forecasts (in the near futurein the near future with the new computer)

Methods of evaluation:Methods of evaluation:- Evaluation comparing predicted classes to observed ones- Evaluation comparing predicted classes to observed ones- Evaluation comparing observed and predicted anomalies - Evaluation comparing observed and predicted anomalies (CCA, …)(CCA, …)

Elaboration process of seasonal forecastElaboration process of seasonal forecast

Dynamical model

Initial conditions

Boundaryconditions

Raw outputs

Post processingStatistical adaptaion

Elaboration of the

bulletin

Atmosoheric General Circulation Model

Dynamical modelRegular grid 300kmOperational since 98 : version 1, version 2,

version 3,version 4 Currently ARPEGE-climat is turned each

month in version 3(forced mode) and version 4 (coupled mode)

operational since 01/2010

ARPEGE-Climate model (French model)ARPEGE-Climate model (French model)

Version 4 of ARPEGE-climat in coupled mode

OPA8.2 Ocean general circulation

model (ORCA2)

Coupled model ORCA2 - ARPEGE-climat

Oceanic forcing

ARPEGE-climat Atmospheric general circulation

model (Météo-Franca model)

Atmospheric forcing

Atmospheric Initial conditionsIssued from ECMWF analysis

Initial oceanic conditions issued fromMERCATOR-OCEAN

Example of seasonal forecast bulletinExample of seasonal forecast bulletin

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BULLETIN DE PRÉVISION SAISONNIÈRE  Précipitations et Températures

Issu le: 20/10/2007 Echéance : Novembre-Décembre-Janvier 2007-2008 (NDJ 07-08)

Nous présentons ci-après la prévision saisonnière issue du modèle dynamique global ARPEGE-Climat opérationnel à la Direction de la Météorologie Nationale et tourné chaque mois pour produire des prévisions d'ensemble de 9 membres. A l’instar de ce qui se fait à l’échelle internationale et pour plus de comparaisons, nous joignons à notre prévision un ensemble de prévisions saisonnières de centres météorologiques mondiaux de bonne renommée, toutes élaborées à titre expérimental. Les évaluations faites sur nos régions sont encourageantes. Cependant, elles ne donnent pas à ce jour des scores comparables à ceux des régions pacifiques tropicales où le signal de prévisibilité est relativement important comme c’est le cas pour le phénomène EL NINO.

Remarque : Les termes températures / précipitations « normales », « froides / humides » ou « chaudes / sèches » sont liés aux valeurs du paramètre durant le trimestre considéré. Ainsi :Températures / précipitations froides / sèches valeurs inférieures aux normales saisonnières.Températures / précipitations normales valeurs équivalentes aux normales saisonnières.Températures / précipitations chaudes / humides valeurs supérieures aux normales saisonnières

SynthèsePrévision saisonnière des températures et précipitations sur le

royaume:

L’analyse globale de l’ensemble des prévisions de précipitations et de températures issues des différents modèles pour la saison de Novembre-Décembre-Janvier 2007 donne un signal normal à légèrement sec en précipitations et normal à légèrement chaud en températures sur le royaume.

Drought monitoring Bulletin Drought monitoring Bulletin

Le SPI est un indice utilisé pour quantifier le déficit de précipitation à différentes échelles temporelles. Ces échelles reflètent l'impact de la sécheresse sur la disponibilité des ressources hydriques. Le calcul du SPI pour une période donnée et une localité donnée est basé sur les données historiques des précipitations. La série historique des données est ajustée à une distribution des probabilités, de sorte que les valeurs de SPI suivent une loi normale centrée réduite avec une moyenne de 0 et un écart type de 1.

Le SPI est un indice utilisé pour quantifier le déficit de précipitation à différentes échelles temporelles. Ces échelles reflètent l'impact de la sécheresse sur la disponibilité des ressources hydriques. Le calcul du SPI pour une période donnée et une localité donnée est basé sur les données historiques des précipitations. La série historique des données est ajustée à une distribution des probabilités, de sorte que les valeurs de SPI suivent une loi normale centrée réduite avec une moyenne de 0 et un écart type de 1.

L’analyse de l’indice SPI montre que le mois de novembre 2008 a été normal à humide pour l’ensemble du pays. Certaines zones comme Taza et Errachidia ont connu un état humide à très humide.P.S: Les qualificatifs ‘normal’,’sec’,’humide’ …, sont relatifs à la normale de la zone et le mois considérés.

Le même indice peut être utilisé pour l’alerte en terme de prévision.

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End-user DialogueToward a National Climate Outlook

Forum (NCOF)DMN has established a periodic evaluation and guidance council in order to validate and listen to end-users.This event helps DMN to understand the needs of theend-users and provides a platform for the users to learn how to use the information DMN provides. The council is attended by users from all sectors including agriculture, water, energy, air and marine navigation, and scientific research.

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End-User DialogueToward a National Climate Outlook Forum (NCOF)

In addition to this, as recommended by the council, an annual sector council is organized. The main objective of this council is to stimulate the use of sector-specific information in an ongoing, iterative process of dialogue between the producers of climatic information and the multitude of users in Morocco.

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End-User DialogueToward a National Climate Outlook Forum (NCOF)

Collaboration with end-users focuses on the following objectives:

• Evaluate user needs• Develop and demonstrate applications whichaddress practical user needs• Establish interactive dialogue with primary users• Develop data/information delivery systems.• Consensus forecast

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The recommendations that result from the council are translated to budgetary actions for developing application tools based on monthly and seasonal products, as well as hydrological and environment tools for deliveringuseful products and services.

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Agriculture

As a direct result of establishing a dialogue with users, DMN has created two agro-meteorological centres in Beni Mellal and Taroudant, and developed a tool to aid decision-making in the agriculture domain.

The purpose of this application is to make users aware of the potential benefits that farmers can gain from improving efficiency and ensuring the sustainability of farm management(health of crops, livestock, and the environment to increase their yield and themarket value of their crops, as well as to solve operational problems).

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Comparison between observed and forecasted yield 1989-1998

61 Sowing Date

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Très FaibleTrès Faible 14 201 ha14 201 ha

FaibleFaible 14 268 ha 14 268 ha

MoyenMoyen 9 040 ha 9 040 ha

ÉlevéÉlevé 9 972 ha 9 972 ha

Très ÉlevéTrès Élevé 30 218 ha 30 218 ha

Pistes ForestièresPistes Forestières

Tranchées Pare-feuTranchées Pare-feu

Points d’eauPoints d’eau

Postes VigiesPostes Vigies

Service Provincial des Eaux et Forêts de TétouanService Provincial des Eaux et Forêts de Tétouan

Probabilité d’éclosionProbabilité d’éclosion

18%18%

18%18%

12%12%

13%13%

39%39%

Cartes de risque des incendies de forêts

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Prévisions de probabilité

d’éclosion du 5/8/2008

Prévisions de probabilité

d’éclosion du 5/8/2008

Nord-OuestNord-Ouest

RifRif

Nord-EstNord-Est

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Risque d’éclosionfaible (1x1 km)

Risque d’éclosionMoyen (1x1 km)

Climate change programClimate change program

Observation and climate monitoring

Detection

Climate change scenarios : Using dynamical downscaling Using statistical downscaling

Assisting users:- Providing climate information for present and futur- Documents and bulletins- Accompanying climate impact studies- Animation of workshops ….- National and international projects

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From CLIPS to GFCS: CLIPS ToolBox

The Proposed Framework Global Framework for Climate (Prediction and Information)

Services’ (GFCS)

Will improve and coordinate : climate services and observations; (CLIPS concerns )

sector and user targeted services; (CLIPS-RCOF-NCOF) capacity building (CLIPS Training Workshop)

collaborative research (CLIPS ET 3.1) user interface with climate products and information

providers (RCOF-NCOF) Development of policies to support application of

climate services for societal benefit (RCOF-NCOF)

World Climate Conference-3Better climate information for a better future

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Sustainability (lessons learned) CLIPS: A solid basis for further development of User-targeted

Climate Services (GFCS ToolBox vers 0)

Training: Build global curriculum on seasonal prediction for use by specialized training

centres and NMHSs Train the trainers

Costs: Engage the user sectors – if the value of the climate information is

demonstrated to business and policy users, they are more likely to support the process

Explore cost-efficient methods for collaboration where possible (email, teleconference, etc.)

Succession planning: Keep bringing new people on board Foster an atmosphere of continual learning – keep up with research Institutionalize the process within the regions creating sustained networking

of relevant climate/user agencies; Regional Drought Monitoring/Management Centres can play a pivotal role to nurture and sustain RCOFs

Local ownership Local ownership of the RCOF process and minimal dependence on external

sources are critical to the sustainability of RCOFs

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CLIPS Recent Deliverables(ToolBox) Catalogue of Indices and

Definitions of El Niño and La Niña in Operational Use by WMO Members. (Horsfall et al.), June 2006. Evolutive web doc

The Aral Sea: Water, Climate and Environmental Change in Central Asia. (Glantz and Zonn), 2005

Glossary of verification terms published in Forecast Verification: A Practitioner’ s Guide in Atmospheric Science, (Jolliffe and Stephenson, Eds.), Wiley.

Living with Climate Variability and Change (Espoo Conference Report) 

Guides/Guidelines CLIPS Guides to Best Practices (ET

3.2) RCOF Operations (Tibaijuka et al.) Forecast Verification (Mason et

al.) User Liaison (Helminen et al.)

CLIPS Guideline Documents (ET3.1) Downscaling Multi-model ensembles

Atlas Atlas of El Niño/La Niña Impacts

Updating of Technical Note TN 145: The socio-economic benefit

of Climatological services. (Helminen et al.)

Under FinalizationCOMPLETED

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CLIPS Recent activities

ENSO Communication workshop (April 2008) SEECOF (Zagreb, 11-12 June 2008) WMO/WCRP/IPY Workshop on CLIPS in Polar

Regions (St. Petersburg, 8-11 September 2008) ET 3.1 Meeting and Open Seminar on SIP (Silver

Spring, 23-26 September 2008) Global RCOF Review (Arusha, October 2008)

FUTURE EVOLUTION

The CLIPS project’s vision, objectives and achievements are expected to be integrated into the upcoming Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS). For the remaining time, a special focus will be given to further develop the national level by improving the user liaison as well as end user services within, e.g., National Climate Outlook Forums on the basis of global and regional centres and mechanisms, like GPCs, RCCs and RCOFs.

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The future evolution of CLIPS is being built on the foundation provided by the achievements and assessments presented above. Elements of future CLIPS activities may include:

a holistic capacity building effort on existing institutions and infrastructure development, training extended to all stakeholders including users in natural resource management as well as policy making positions, networking and partnerships;

demonstration projects on the application of the latest advances in climate science, review and update of climate products to improve climate services;

expansion and/or integration of global, regional and national climate outlooks;

expansion of RCCs and National Climate Centres; support to the development of more iterative provider-user

interfaces at global, regional and national levels.73

Thank You