El Niño

Buruhani S. NyenziChief, World Climate Applications

and CLIPS Division, WMOThe Hague, Netherlands 26 - 29 July 2002

El Niño/ La Niña as extremes of Climate Variability

• Some facts about El Niño/La Niña

• Signals a major departure from normal Climate Patterns

• Have a recurring pattern

• No two events are identical

• Generally detected around May-June in the year

• El Niño/La Niña is just one of the extremes of climate variability

• Associated with heavy rains or severe dry conditions

El Niño/ La Niña as extremes of Climate Variability (Cont’d)

Source: NOAA

El Niño/ La Niña as extremes of Climate Variability (Cont’d)

Source: NOAA

El Niño/ La Niña as extremes of Climate Variability (Cont’d)

Source: NOAA

El Niño/ La Niña as extremes of Climate Variability (Cont’d)

Source: NOAA

ENSO RELATED IMPACTS

Source: NOAA

ENSO RELATED IMPACTS (Cont ’d)

Source: NOAA

ENSO RELATED IMPACTS(Cont ’d)

Source: NOAA

ENSO RELATED IMPACTS(Cont ’d)

Source: NOAA

El Niño of 97/98• Last major event in 1997/98 was at least

equal if not stronger than the 1982/83 event• Caused havoc in many countries

• loss of lives, infrastructure, food shortages etc

• The onset of the event led to the establishment of an Interagency Task force on El Niño under theInternational Strategy for Disaster Reduction.

• The Task Force resulted in significantly enhanced information exchange between agencies of the UN System during the course of the event, e.g. through the WMO sponsored El Niño Outlook

El Niño of 97/98• A major international Conference to assess

the scientific aspects of the event and also to make a preliminary assessment of the social and economic effects was convened in Guayaquil, Ecuador in November 1998.

• Subsequently, a scientific and technical assessment on the event was prepared by WMO, UNEP and other agencies and was presented to the UNGA in December 1999.

• A more in-depth social and economic assessment of the event (Once Bitten Twice Shy) followed in 2001.

Spin-off from this El Nino• A proposal to develop an El Niño

Research Centre in Guayaquil has been taken up by the Government of Ecuador in collaboration between WMO and the IDNDR ( currently ISDR).

• Another spin-off from the 1997/98 event has been the establishment of a series of Regional Climate Outlook Forums supported by WMO:

• AFRICA (West, Eastern, Southern, northern and central)• SOUTH AND CENTRAL AMERICA• PACIFIC Region• These outlooks help in the socio-economic planning

Spin - off (Cont.)• With the establishment of the ISDR as a

successor to the IDNDR, the work of the Interagency Task Force on El Niño has been taken up by the ISDR WG on Climate variability and Disasters (WG-1).

• This year, with the appearance of an incipient El Niño event, WMO as the WG-1 Lead Agency, has co-ordinated the preparation of three El Niño Outlooks:

• February, March and the latest on 17 June 2002.• Copies available ( Summary on page 2 of the report)

Spin-off from Mozambique floods of 2000 and 2001

• The Mozambique floods from other climate extremes (Tropical Cyclones) have made more involvement of WMO, through the NMHSs, and other UN Agencies on disaster preparedness and management in various regions for example SADC

• Regional bodies are preparing strategies to prepare, manage and mitigate natural disasters especially floods and droughts

Linking Climate and Disaster Databases

• For the most part, there appears to have been little systematic work done in making effective linkages between climate databases and the increasing number of national, regional and global databases on disaster statistics.

Proposals (WG-1 and WG-3)

• Rapid survey of what has been done in this area

• Convene an International Workshop under ISDR Sponsorship

• Conduct some pilot studies on existing, well structured climate and disaster data bases where they are known to exist

Cont.

• A need for development of a set of guidelines for linking and correlating climate and disaster databases

• These can be used to produce risk assessments and outlooks for various sectors.

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SUMMARY

• Meteorological information, especially seasonal prediction, if packaged well and provided to users in good time can help to plan for the various sectors in accordance to the given outlook.

Thank you