the civil beat poll — june 2012 democratic senate primary
DESCRIPTION
Hawaii Democrats Ed Case and Mazie Hirono both sit at 46 percent in a new survey of likely primary voters.TRANSCRIPT
1
--If the Democratic Senate primary were held today, would you vote for Congresswoman Mazie Hirono, or former Congressman Ed Case?[NOTE: Order of presentation of candidate names was randomized]
QDemMatchupQDemMatchupQDemMatchup
Hirono 46% Case 46%
Unsure 8%
Total 100%
Civil Beat Poll, June 5-7, 2012731 Likely Democratic Senate Primary Voters – Margin of Error +/- 3.6%
2
DemMatchup * US CrosstabulationDemMatchup * US CrosstabulationDemMatchup * US CrosstabulationDemMatchup * US CrosstabulationDemMatchup * US CrosstabulationDemMatchup * US Crosstabulation% within US% within US% within US% within US% within US% within US
USUSUS Right Wrong Unsure
DemMatchup Hirono 54% 27% 61%DemMatchupCase 39% 63% 23%
DemMatchup
Unsure 7% 10% 16%TotalTotal 100% 100% 100%
US * DemMatchup CrosstabulationUS * DemMatchup CrosstabulationUS * DemMatchup CrosstabulationUS * DemMatchup CrosstabulationUS * DemMatchup CrosstabulationUS * DemMatchup Crosstabulation% within DemMatchup% within DemMatchup% within DemMatchup% within DemMatchup% within DemMatchup% within DemMatchup
DemMatchupDemMatchupDemMatchup Hirono Case Unsure
US Right 69% 50% 45%USWrong 20% 46% 39%
US
Unsure 12% 5% 16%TotalTotal 100% 100% 100%
Civil Beat Poll, June 5-7, 2012731 Likely Democratic Senate Primary Voters – Margin of Error +/- 3.6%
3
DemMatchup * Hawaii CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Hawaii CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Hawaii CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Hawaii CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Hawaii CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Hawaii Crosstabulation% within Hawaii% within Hawaii% within Hawaii% within Hawaii% within Hawaii% within Hawaii
HawaiiHawaiiHawaii Right Wrong Unsure
DemMatchup Hirono 60% 26% 58%DemMatchupCase 33% 64% 31%
DemMatchup
Unsure 7% 10% 11%TotalTotal 100% 100% 100%
Hawaii * DemMatchup CrosstabulationHawaii * DemMatchup CrosstabulationHawaii * DemMatchup CrosstabulationHawaii * DemMatchup CrosstabulationHawaii * DemMatchup CrosstabulationHawaii * DemMatchup Crosstabulation% within DemMatchup% within DemMatchup% within DemMatchup% within DemMatchup% within DemMatchup% within DemMatchup
DemMatchupDemMatchupDemMatchup Hirono Case Unsure
Hawaii Right 68% 37% 44%HawaiiWrong 24% 58% 48%
Hawaii
Unsure 8% 4% 8%TotalTotal 100% 100% 100%
Civil Beat Poll, June 5-7, 2012731 Likely Democratic Senate Primary Voters – Margin of Error +/- 3.6%
4
Oahu Only:DemMatchup * Rail CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Rail CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Rail CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Rail CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Rail CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Rail Crosstabulation
% within Rail% within Rail% within Rail% within Rail% within Rail% within Rail
RailRailRail Support Oppose Unsure
DemMatchup Hirono 55% 35% 48%DemMatchupCase 38% 58% 27%
DemMatchup
Unsure 7% 6% 25%TotalTotal 100% 100% 100%
Oahu Only:Rail * DemMatchup CrosstabulationRail * DemMatchup CrosstabulationRail * DemMatchup CrosstabulationRail * DemMatchup CrosstabulationRail * DemMatchup CrosstabulationRail * DemMatchup Crosstabulation
% within DemMatchup% within DemMatchup% within DemMatchup% within DemMatchup% within DemMatchup% within DemMatchup
DemMatchupDemMatchupDemMatchup Hirono Case Unsure
Rail Support 58% 41% 40%RailOppose 33% 54% 32%
Rail
Unsure 10% 5% 27%TotalTotal 100% 100% 100%
Civil Beat Poll, June 5-7, 2012731 Likely Democratic Senate Primary Voters – Margin of Error +/- 3.6%
5
DemMatchup * Marriage CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Marriage CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Marriage CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Marriage CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Marriage CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Marriage Crosstabulation% within Marriage% within Marriage% within Marriage% within Marriage% within Marriage% within Marriage
MarriageMarriageMarriage Yes No Unsure
DemMatchup Hirono 56% 32% 36%DemMatchupCase 37% 58% 49%
DemMatchup
Unsure 7% 10% 15%TotalTotal 100% 100% 100%
Marriage * DemMatchup CrosstabulationMarriage * DemMatchup CrosstabulationMarriage * DemMatchup CrosstabulationMarriage * DemMatchup CrosstabulationMarriage * DemMatchup CrosstabulationMarriage * DemMatchup Crosstabulation% within DemMatchup% within DemMatchup% within DemMatchup% within DemMatchup% within DemMatchup% within DemMatchup
DemMatchupDemMatchupDemMatchup Hirono Case Unsure
Marriage Yes 67% 44% 41%MarriageNo 25% 46% 41%
Marriage
Unsure 8% 11% 17%TotalTotal 100% 100% 100%
Civil Beat Poll, June 5-7, 2012731 Likely Democratic Senate Primary Voters – Margin of Error +/- 3.6%
6
DemMatchup * Economy CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Economy CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Economy CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Economy CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Economy CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Economy Crosstabulation% within Economy% within Economy% within Economy% within Economy% within Economy% within Economy
EconomyEconomyEconomy
Jobs/Economy Debt/SS/Medi Unsure
DemMatchup Hirono 53% 41% 44%DemMatchupCase 37% 52% 43%
DemMatchup
Unsure 9% 7% 13%TotalTotal 100% 100% 100%
Economy * DemMatchup CrosstabulationEconomy * DemMatchup CrosstabulationEconomy * DemMatchup CrosstabulationEconomy * DemMatchup CrosstabulationEconomy * DemMatchup CrosstabulationEconomy * DemMatchup Crosstabulation% within DemMatchup% within DemMatchup% within DemMatchup% within DemMatchup% within DemMatchup% within DemMatchup
DemMatchupDemMatchupDemMatchup Hirono Case Unsure
Economy Jobs/Economy 42% 30% 40%EconomyDebt/SS/Medi 45% 58% 40%
Economy
Unsure 13% 12% 19%TotalTotal 100% 100% 100%
Civil Beat Poll, June 5-7, 2012731 Likely Democratic Senate Primary Voters – Margin of Error +/- 3.6%
7
DemMatchup * Obama CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Obama CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Obama CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Obama CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Obama CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Obama CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Obama CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Obama Crosstabulation% within Obama% within Obama% within Obama% within Obama% within Obama% within Obama% within Obama% within Obama
ObamaObamaObamaObamaObama
Approve strongly
Approve somewhat
Disapprove somewhat
Disapprove strongly Unsure
DemMatchup Hirono 58% 44% 29% 3% 36%DemMatchupCase 35% 41% 61% 92% 36%
DemMatchup
Unsure 7% 15% 11% 6% 27%TotalTotal 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Obama * DemMatchup CrosstabulationObama * DemMatchup CrosstabulationObama * DemMatchup CrosstabulationObama * DemMatchup CrosstabulationObama * DemMatchup CrosstabulationObama * DemMatchup Crosstabulation% within DemMatchup% within DemMatchup% within DemMatchup% within DemMatchup% within DemMatchup% within DemMatchup
DemMatchupDemMatchupDemMatchup Hirono Case Unsure
Obama Approve strongly 78% 48% 48%ObamaApprove somewhat 16% 15% 31%
Obama
Disapprove somewhat 3% 7% 6%
Obama
Disapprove strongly 1% 29% 10%
Obama
Unsure 1% 1% 5%TotalTotal 100% 100% 100%
Civil Beat Poll, June 5-7, 2012731 Likely Democratic Senate Primary Voters – Margin of Error +/- 3.6%
8
DemMatchup * Obama_Condensed CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Obama_Condensed CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Obama_Condensed CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Obama_Condensed CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Obama_Condensed CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Obama_Condensed Crosstabulation% within Obama_Condensed% within Obama_Condensed% within Obama_Condensed% within Obama_Condensed% within Obama_Condensed% within Obama_Condensed
Obama_CondensedObama_CondensedObama_Condensed
Approve Disapprove Unsure
DemMatchup Hirono 55% 10% 36%DemMatchupCase 37% 84% 36%
DemMatchup
Unsure 8% 6% 27%TotalTotal 100% 100% 100%
Obama_Condensed * DemMatchup CrosstabulationObama_Condensed * DemMatchup CrosstabulationObama_Condensed * DemMatchup CrosstabulationObama_Condensed * DemMatchup CrosstabulationObama_Condensed * DemMatchup CrosstabulationObama_Condensed * DemMatchup Crosstabulation% within DemMatchup% within DemMatchup% within DemMatchup% within DemMatchup% within DemMatchup% within DemMatchup
DemMatchupDemMatchupDemMatchup Hirono Case Unsure
Obama_Condensed Approve 95% 63% 80%Obama_CondensedDisapprove 4% 36% 15%
Obama_Condensed
Unsure 1% 1% 5%TotalTotal 100% 100% 100%
Civil Beat Poll, June 5-7, 2012731 Likely Democratic Senate Primary Voters – Margin of Error +/- 3.6%
9
DemMatchup * Congressional_District CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Congressional_District CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Congressional_District CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Congressional_District CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Congressional_District Crosstabulation% within Congressional_District% within Congressional_District% within Congressional_District% within Congressional_District% within Congressional_District
Congressional_DistrictCongressional_District 1 2
DemMatchup Hirono 44% 48%DemMatchupCase 46% 45%
DemMatchup
Unsure 10% 7%TotalTotal 100% 100%
DemMatchup * County CrosstabulationDemMatchup * County CrosstabulationDemMatchup * County CrosstabulationDemMatchup * County CrosstabulationDemMatchup * County CrosstabulationDemMatchup * County CrosstabulationDemMatchup * County Crosstabulation% within County% within County% within County% within County% within County% within County% within County
CountyCountyCountyCounty Oahu Hawaii Maui Kauai
DemMatchup Hirono 42% 57% 55% 48%DemMatchupCase 49% 39% 32% 46%
DemMatchup
Unsure 9% 3% 12% 6%TotalTotal 100% 100% 100% 100%
DemMatchup * County_CD CrosstabulationDemMatchup * County_CD CrosstabulationDemMatchup * County_CD CrosstabulationDemMatchup * County_CD CrosstabulationDemMatchup * County_CD CrosstabulationDemMatchup * County_CD CrosstabulationDemMatchup * County_CD CrosstabulationDemMatchup * County_CD Crosstabulation% within County_CD% within County_CD% within County_CD% within County_CD% within County_CD% within County_CD% within County_CD% within County_CD
County_CDCounty_CDCounty_CDCounty_CDCounty_CD Oahu 1 Oahu 2 Hawaii Maui Kauai
DemMatchup Hirono 44% 39% 57% 55% 48%DemMatchupCase 46% 55% 39% 32% 46%
DemMatchup
Unsure 10% 6% 3% 12% 6%TotalTotal 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Civil Beat Poll, June 5-7, 2012731 Likely Democratic Senate Primary Voters – Margin of Error +/- 3.6%
10
DemMatchup * Gender CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Gender CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Gender CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Gender CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Gender Crosstabulation% within Gender% within Gender% within Gender% within Gender% within Gender
GenderGender Male Female
DemMatchup Hirono 48% 45%DemMatchupCase 45% 47%
DemMatchup
Unsure 7% 9%TotalTotal 100% 100%
DemMatchup * Age CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Age CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Age CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Age CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Age CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Age CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Age CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Age Crosstabulation% within Age% within Age% within Age% within Age% within Age% within Age% within Age% within Age
AgeAgeAgeAgeAge 18-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 65+
DemMatchup Hirono 19% 36% 40% 51% 49%DemMatchupCase 73% 52% 53% 39% 44%
DemMatchup
Unsure 8% 12% 8% 9% 7%TotalTotal 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Civil Beat Poll, June 5-7, 2012731 Likely Democratic Senate Primary Voters – Margin of Error +/- 3.6%
11
DemMatchup * Politics CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Politics CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Politics CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Politics CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Politics CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Politics CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Politics Crosstabulation% within Politics% within Politics% within Politics% within Politics% within Politics% within Politics% within Politics
PoliticsPoliticsPoliticsPolitics
Liberal/Progressive Moderate Conservative Unsure
DemMatchup Hirono 58% 38% 33% 54%DemMatchupCase 36% 53% 61% 33%
DemMatchup
Unsure 7% 9% 6% 13%TotalTotal 100% 100% 100% 100%
DemMatchup * PartyID CrosstabulationDemMatchup * PartyID CrosstabulationDemMatchup * PartyID CrosstabulationDemMatchup * PartyID CrosstabulationDemMatchup * PartyID CrosstabulationDemMatchup * PartyID CrosstabulationDemMatchup * PartyID Crosstabulation% within PartyID% within PartyID% within PartyID% within PartyID% within PartyID% within PartyID% within PartyID
PartyIDPartyIDPartyIDPartyID
Democrat Republican Independent Unsure
DemMatchup Hirono 58% 20% 27% 34%DemMatchupCase 35% 73% 62% 55%
DemMatchup
Unsure 7% 6% 11% 10%TotalTotal 100% 100% 100% 100%
Civil Beat Poll, June 5-7, 2012731 Likely Democratic Senate Primary Voters – Margin of Error +/- 3.6%
12
DemMatchup * Race_Ethnicity CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Race_Ethnicity CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Race_Ethnicity CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Race_Ethnicity CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Race_Ethnicity CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Race_Ethnicity CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Race_Ethnicity CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Race_Ethnicity CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Race_Ethnicity CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Race_Ethnicity Crosstabulation% within Race_Ethnicity% within Race_Ethnicity% within Race_Ethnicity% within Race_Ethnicity% within Race_Ethnicity% within Race_Ethnicity% within Race_Ethnicity% within Race_Ethnicity% within Race_Ethnicity% within Race_Ethnicity
Race_EthnicityRace_EthnicityRace_EthnicityRace_EthnicityRace_EthnicityRace_EthnicityRace_Ethnicity
Caucasian Japanese Filipino Hawaiian Chinese Hispanic Other/Mixed
DemMatchup
Hirono 44% 47% 44% 62% 37% 38% 49%DemMatchup Case 50% 42% 43% 29% 57% 63% 44%DemMatchup
Unsure 6% 11% 13% 9% 6% 8%TotalTotal 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
DemMatchup * Education CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Education CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Education CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Education CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Education CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Education CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Education Crosstabulation% within Education% within Education% within Education% within Education% within Education% within Education% within Education
EducationEducationEducationEducation
No Degree
High School Degree
College Degree
Graduate Degree
DemMatchup Hirono 42% 50% 45% 45%DemMatchupCase 45% 40% 47% 47%
DemMatchup
Unsure 13% 10% 8% 7%TotalTotal 100% 100% 100% 100%
DemMatchup * Religion CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Religion CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Religion CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Religion CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Religion CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Religion CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Religion CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Religion CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Religion CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Religion CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Religion CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Religion Crosstabulation% within Religion% within Religion% within Religion% within Religion% within Religion% within Religion% within Religion% within Religion% within Religion% within Religion% within Religion% within Religion
ReligionReligionReligionReligionReligionReligionReligionReligionReligion
Catholic
Evangelical Mormon
Other Christia
nBuddhis
t Shinto Jewish Other NoneDemMatchup
Hirono 46% 30% 42% 43% 62% 80% 60% 35% 48%DemMatchup Case 47% 58% 42% 47% 28% 20% 40% 62% 45%DemMatchup
Unsure 7% 12% 15% 10% 10% 3% 6%TotalTotal 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Civil Beat Poll, June 5-7, 2012731 Likely Democratic Senate Primary Voters – Margin of Error +/- 3.6%
13
DemMatchup * Military_Family CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Military_Family CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Military_Family CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Military_Family CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Military_Family Crosstabulation% within Military_Family% within Military_Family% within Military_Family% within Military_Family% within Military_Family
Military_FamilyMilitary_Family Yes No
DemMatchup Hirono 40% 47%DemMatchupCase 50% 45%
DemMatchup
Unsure 10% 8%TotalTotal 100% 100%
DemMatchup * Annual Household Income CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Annual Household Income CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Annual Household Income CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Annual Household Income CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Annual Household Income CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Annual Household Income Crosstabulation% within Annual Household Income% within Annual Household Income% within Annual Household Income% within Annual Household Income% within Annual Household Income% within Annual Household Income
Annual Household IncomeAnnual Household IncomeAnnual Household Income
$50,000 or less
$50,000-$100,000
$100,000 or More
DemMatchup Hirono 53% 45% 38%DemMatchupCase 38% 48% 54%
DemMatchup
Unsure 9% 7% 8%TotalTotal 100% 100% 100%
Civil Beat Poll, June 5-7, 2012731 Likely Democratic Senate Primary Voters – Margin of Error +/- 3.6%
14
Second Congressional District Only:DemMatchup * Congress CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Congress CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Congress CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Congress CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Congress CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Congress CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Congress CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Congress Crosstabulation
% within Congress% within Congress% within Congress% within Congress% within Congress% within Congress% within Congress% within Congress
CongressCongressCongressCongressCongress
Marx Gabbard Hanneman Kiaaina Unsure
DemMatchup Hirono 58% 46% 49% 56% 38%DemMatchupCase 39% 48% 46% 44% 40%
DemMatchup
Unsure 3% 7% 5% 23%TotalTotal 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Oahu Only:DemMatchup * Mayor CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Mayor CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Mayor CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Mayor CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Mayor CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Mayor CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Mayor Crosstabulation
% within Mayor% within Mayor% within Mayor% within Mayor% within Mayor% within Mayor% within Mayor
MayorMayorMayorMayor Cayetano Carlisle Caldwell Unsure
DemMatchup Hirono 32% 50% 54% 33%DemMatchupCase 61% 39% 41% 41%
DemMatchup
Unsure 7% 11% 5% 25%TotalTotal 100% 100% 100% 100%
Civil Beat Poll, June 5-7, 2012731 Likely Democratic Senate Primary Voters – Margin of Error +/- 3.6%
15
--In a [General Election] contest between Mazie Hirono and Linda Lingle, who would you vote for? [NOTE: Democratic Primary Voters only]
QHironoLingleQHironoLingleQHironoLingle
Hirono 65% Lingle 28%
Unsure 7%
Total 100%
HironoLingle * DemMatchup CrosstabulationHironoLingle * DemMatchup CrosstabulationHironoLingle * DemMatchup CrosstabulationHironoLingle * DemMatchup CrosstabulationHironoLingle * DemMatchup CrosstabulationHironoLingle * DemMatchup Crosstabulation% within DemMatchup% within DemMatchup% within DemMatchup% within DemMatchup% within DemMatchup% within DemMatchup
DemMatchupDemMatchupDemMatchup Hirono Case Unsure
HironoLingle Hirono 94% 38% 50%HironoLingleLingle 4% 55% 19%
HironoLingle
Unsure 2% 7% 31%TotalTotal 100% 100% 100%
--In a [General Election] contest between Ed Case and Linda Lingle, who would you vote for? [NOTE: Democratic Primary Voters only]
QCaseLingleQCaseLingleQCaseLingle
Case 68% Lingle 18%
Unsure 14%
Total 100%
CaseLingle * DemMatchup CrosstabulationCaseLingle * DemMatchup CrosstabulationCaseLingle * DemMatchup CrosstabulationCaseLingle * DemMatchup CrosstabulationCaseLingle * DemMatchup CrosstabulationCaseLingle * DemMatchup Crosstabulation% within DemMatchup% within DemMatchup% within DemMatchup% within DemMatchup% within DemMatchup% within DemMatchup
DemMatchupDemMatchupDemMatchup Hirono Case Unsure
CaseLingle Case 68% 70% 52%CaseLingleLingle 12% 25% 15%
CaseLingle
Unsure 20% 5% 33%TotalTotal 100% 100% 100%
Civil Beat Poll, June 5-7, 2012731 Likely Democratic Senate Primary Voters – Margin of Error +/- 3.6%