the civil beat poll — june 2012 democratic senate primary

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1 --If the Democratic Senate primary were held today, would you vote for Congresswoman Mazie Hirono, or former Congressman Ed Case? [NOTE: Order of presentation of candidate names was randomized] QDemMatchup Hirono 46% Case 46% Unsure 8% Total 100% Civil Beat Poll, June 5-7, 2012 731 Likely Democratic Senate Primary Voters – Margin of Error +/- 3.6%

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Hawaii Democrats Ed Case and Mazie Hirono both sit at 46 percent in a new survey of likely primary voters.

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Page 1: The Civil Beat Poll — June 2012 Democratic Senate Primary

1

--If the Democratic Senate primary were held today, would you vote for Congresswoman Mazie Hirono, or former Congressman Ed Case?[NOTE: Order of presentation of candidate names was randomized]

QDemMatchupQDemMatchupQDemMatchup

Hirono 46% Case 46%

Unsure 8%

Total 100%

Civil Beat Poll, June 5-7, 2012731 Likely Democratic Senate Primary Voters – Margin of Error +/- 3.6%

Page 2: The Civil Beat Poll — June 2012 Democratic Senate Primary

2

DemMatchup * US CrosstabulationDemMatchup * US CrosstabulationDemMatchup * US CrosstabulationDemMatchup * US CrosstabulationDemMatchup * US CrosstabulationDemMatchup * US Crosstabulation% within US% within US% within US% within US% within US% within US

USUSUS Right Wrong Unsure

DemMatchup Hirono 54% 27% 61%DemMatchupCase 39% 63% 23%

DemMatchup

Unsure 7% 10% 16%TotalTotal 100% 100% 100%

US * DemMatchup CrosstabulationUS * DemMatchup CrosstabulationUS * DemMatchup CrosstabulationUS * DemMatchup CrosstabulationUS * DemMatchup CrosstabulationUS * DemMatchup Crosstabulation% within DemMatchup% within DemMatchup% within DemMatchup% within DemMatchup% within DemMatchup% within DemMatchup

DemMatchupDemMatchupDemMatchup Hirono Case Unsure

US Right 69% 50% 45%USWrong 20% 46% 39%

US

Unsure 12% 5% 16%TotalTotal 100% 100% 100%

Civil Beat Poll, June 5-7, 2012731 Likely Democratic Senate Primary Voters – Margin of Error +/- 3.6%

Page 3: The Civil Beat Poll — June 2012 Democratic Senate Primary

3

DemMatchup * Hawaii CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Hawaii CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Hawaii CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Hawaii CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Hawaii CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Hawaii Crosstabulation% within Hawaii% within Hawaii% within Hawaii% within Hawaii% within Hawaii% within Hawaii

HawaiiHawaiiHawaii Right Wrong Unsure

DemMatchup Hirono 60% 26% 58%DemMatchupCase 33% 64% 31%

DemMatchup

Unsure 7% 10% 11%TotalTotal 100% 100% 100%

Hawaii * DemMatchup CrosstabulationHawaii * DemMatchup CrosstabulationHawaii * DemMatchup CrosstabulationHawaii * DemMatchup CrosstabulationHawaii * DemMatchup CrosstabulationHawaii * DemMatchup Crosstabulation% within DemMatchup% within DemMatchup% within DemMatchup% within DemMatchup% within DemMatchup% within DemMatchup

DemMatchupDemMatchupDemMatchup Hirono Case Unsure

Hawaii Right 68% 37% 44%HawaiiWrong 24% 58% 48%

Hawaii

Unsure 8% 4% 8%TotalTotal 100% 100% 100%

Civil Beat Poll, June 5-7, 2012731 Likely Democratic Senate Primary Voters – Margin of Error +/- 3.6%

Page 4: The Civil Beat Poll — June 2012 Democratic Senate Primary

4

Oahu Only:DemMatchup * Rail CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Rail CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Rail CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Rail CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Rail CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Rail Crosstabulation

% within Rail% within Rail% within Rail% within Rail% within Rail% within Rail

RailRailRail Support Oppose Unsure

DemMatchup Hirono 55% 35% 48%DemMatchupCase 38% 58% 27%

DemMatchup

Unsure 7% 6% 25%TotalTotal 100% 100% 100%

Oahu Only:Rail * DemMatchup CrosstabulationRail * DemMatchup CrosstabulationRail * DemMatchup CrosstabulationRail * DemMatchup CrosstabulationRail * DemMatchup CrosstabulationRail * DemMatchup Crosstabulation

% within DemMatchup% within DemMatchup% within DemMatchup% within DemMatchup% within DemMatchup% within DemMatchup

DemMatchupDemMatchupDemMatchup Hirono Case Unsure

Rail Support 58% 41% 40%RailOppose 33% 54% 32%

Rail

Unsure 10% 5% 27%TotalTotal 100% 100% 100%

Civil Beat Poll, June 5-7, 2012731 Likely Democratic Senate Primary Voters – Margin of Error +/- 3.6%

Page 5: The Civil Beat Poll — June 2012 Democratic Senate Primary

5

DemMatchup * Marriage CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Marriage CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Marriage CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Marriage CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Marriage CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Marriage Crosstabulation% within Marriage% within Marriage% within Marriage% within Marriage% within Marriage% within Marriage

MarriageMarriageMarriage Yes No Unsure

DemMatchup Hirono 56% 32% 36%DemMatchupCase 37% 58% 49%

DemMatchup

Unsure 7% 10% 15%TotalTotal 100% 100% 100%

Marriage * DemMatchup CrosstabulationMarriage * DemMatchup CrosstabulationMarriage * DemMatchup CrosstabulationMarriage * DemMatchup CrosstabulationMarriage * DemMatchup CrosstabulationMarriage * DemMatchup Crosstabulation% within DemMatchup% within DemMatchup% within DemMatchup% within DemMatchup% within DemMatchup% within DemMatchup

DemMatchupDemMatchupDemMatchup Hirono Case Unsure

Marriage Yes 67% 44% 41%MarriageNo 25% 46% 41%

Marriage

Unsure 8% 11% 17%TotalTotal 100% 100% 100%

Civil Beat Poll, June 5-7, 2012731 Likely Democratic Senate Primary Voters – Margin of Error +/- 3.6%

Page 6: The Civil Beat Poll — June 2012 Democratic Senate Primary

6

DemMatchup * Economy CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Economy CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Economy CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Economy CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Economy CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Economy Crosstabulation% within Economy% within Economy% within Economy% within Economy% within Economy% within Economy

EconomyEconomyEconomy

Jobs/Economy Debt/SS/Medi Unsure

DemMatchup Hirono 53% 41% 44%DemMatchupCase 37% 52% 43%

DemMatchup

Unsure 9% 7% 13%TotalTotal 100% 100% 100%

Economy * DemMatchup CrosstabulationEconomy * DemMatchup CrosstabulationEconomy * DemMatchup CrosstabulationEconomy * DemMatchup CrosstabulationEconomy * DemMatchup CrosstabulationEconomy * DemMatchup Crosstabulation% within DemMatchup% within DemMatchup% within DemMatchup% within DemMatchup% within DemMatchup% within DemMatchup

DemMatchupDemMatchupDemMatchup Hirono Case Unsure

Economy Jobs/Economy 42% 30% 40%EconomyDebt/SS/Medi 45% 58% 40%

Economy

Unsure 13% 12% 19%TotalTotal 100% 100% 100%

Civil Beat Poll, June 5-7, 2012731 Likely Democratic Senate Primary Voters – Margin of Error +/- 3.6%

Page 7: The Civil Beat Poll — June 2012 Democratic Senate Primary

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DemMatchup * Obama CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Obama CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Obama CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Obama CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Obama CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Obama CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Obama CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Obama Crosstabulation% within Obama% within Obama% within Obama% within Obama% within Obama% within Obama% within Obama% within Obama

ObamaObamaObamaObamaObama

Approve strongly

Approve somewhat

Disapprove somewhat

Disapprove strongly Unsure

DemMatchup Hirono 58% 44% 29% 3% 36%DemMatchupCase 35% 41% 61% 92% 36%

DemMatchup

Unsure 7% 15% 11% 6% 27%TotalTotal 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Obama * DemMatchup CrosstabulationObama * DemMatchup CrosstabulationObama * DemMatchup CrosstabulationObama * DemMatchup CrosstabulationObama * DemMatchup CrosstabulationObama * DemMatchup Crosstabulation% within DemMatchup% within DemMatchup% within DemMatchup% within DemMatchup% within DemMatchup% within DemMatchup

DemMatchupDemMatchupDemMatchup Hirono Case Unsure

Obama Approve strongly 78% 48% 48%ObamaApprove somewhat 16% 15% 31%

Obama

Disapprove somewhat 3% 7% 6%

Obama

Disapprove strongly 1% 29% 10%

Obama

Unsure 1% 1% 5%TotalTotal 100% 100% 100%

Civil Beat Poll, June 5-7, 2012731 Likely Democratic Senate Primary Voters – Margin of Error +/- 3.6%

Page 8: The Civil Beat Poll — June 2012 Democratic Senate Primary

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DemMatchup * Obama_Condensed CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Obama_Condensed CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Obama_Condensed CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Obama_Condensed CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Obama_Condensed CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Obama_Condensed Crosstabulation% within Obama_Condensed% within Obama_Condensed% within Obama_Condensed% within Obama_Condensed% within Obama_Condensed% within Obama_Condensed

Obama_CondensedObama_CondensedObama_Condensed

Approve Disapprove Unsure

DemMatchup Hirono 55% 10% 36%DemMatchupCase 37% 84% 36%

DemMatchup

Unsure 8% 6% 27%TotalTotal 100% 100% 100%

Obama_Condensed * DemMatchup CrosstabulationObama_Condensed * DemMatchup CrosstabulationObama_Condensed * DemMatchup CrosstabulationObama_Condensed * DemMatchup CrosstabulationObama_Condensed * DemMatchup CrosstabulationObama_Condensed * DemMatchup Crosstabulation% within DemMatchup% within DemMatchup% within DemMatchup% within DemMatchup% within DemMatchup% within DemMatchup

DemMatchupDemMatchupDemMatchup Hirono Case Unsure

Obama_Condensed Approve 95% 63% 80%Obama_CondensedDisapprove 4% 36% 15%

Obama_Condensed

Unsure 1% 1% 5%TotalTotal 100% 100% 100%

Civil Beat Poll, June 5-7, 2012731 Likely Democratic Senate Primary Voters – Margin of Error +/- 3.6%

Page 9: The Civil Beat Poll — June 2012 Democratic Senate Primary

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DemMatchup * Congressional_District CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Congressional_District CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Congressional_District CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Congressional_District CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Congressional_District Crosstabulation% within Congressional_District% within Congressional_District% within Congressional_District% within Congressional_District% within Congressional_District

Congressional_DistrictCongressional_District 1 2

DemMatchup Hirono 44% 48%DemMatchupCase 46% 45%

DemMatchup

Unsure 10% 7%TotalTotal 100% 100%

DemMatchup * County CrosstabulationDemMatchup * County CrosstabulationDemMatchup * County CrosstabulationDemMatchup * County CrosstabulationDemMatchup * County CrosstabulationDemMatchup * County CrosstabulationDemMatchup * County Crosstabulation% within County% within County% within County% within County% within County% within County% within County

CountyCountyCountyCounty Oahu Hawaii Maui Kauai

DemMatchup Hirono 42% 57% 55% 48%DemMatchupCase 49% 39% 32% 46%

DemMatchup

Unsure 9% 3% 12% 6%TotalTotal 100% 100% 100% 100%

DemMatchup * County_CD CrosstabulationDemMatchup * County_CD CrosstabulationDemMatchup * County_CD CrosstabulationDemMatchup * County_CD CrosstabulationDemMatchup * County_CD CrosstabulationDemMatchup * County_CD CrosstabulationDemMatchup * County_CD CrosstabulationDemMatchup * County_CD Crosstabulation% within County_CD% within County_CD% within County_CD% within County_CD% within County_CD% within County_CD% within County_CD% within County_CD

County_CDCounty_CDCounty_CDCounty_CDCounty_CD Oahu 1 Oahu 2 Hawaii Maui Kauai

DemMatchup Hirono 44% 39% 57% 55% 48%DemMatchupCase 46% 55% 39% 32% 46%

DemMatchup

Unsure 10% 6% 3% 12% 6%TotalTotal 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Civil Beat Poll, June 5-7, 2012731 Likely Democratic Senate Primary Voters – Margin of Error +/- 3.6%

Page 10: The Civil Beat Poll — June 2012 Democratic Senate Primary

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DemMatchup * Gender CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Gender CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Gender CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Gender CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Gender Crosstabulation% within Gender% within Gender% within Gender% within Gender% within Gender

GenderGender Male Female

DemMatchup Hirono 48% 45%DemMatchupCase 45% 47%

DemMatchup

Unsure 7% 9%TotalTotal 100% 100%

DemMatchup * Age CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Age CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Age CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Age CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Age CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Age CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Age CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Age Crosstabulation% within Age% within Age% within Age% within Age% within Age% within Age% within Age% within Age

AgeAgeAgeAgeAge 18-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 65+

DemMatchup Hirono 19% 36% 40% 51% 49%DemMatchupCase 73% 52% 53% 39% 44%

DemMatchup

Unsure 8% 12% 8% 9% 7%TotalTotal 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Civil Beat Poll, June 5-7, 2012731 Likely Democratic Senate Primary Voters – Margin of Error +/- 3.6%

Page 11: The Civil Beat Poll — June 2012 Democratic Senate Primary

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DemMatchup * Politics CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Politics CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Politics CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Politics CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Politics CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Politics CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Politics Crosstabulation% within Politics% within Politics% within Politics% within Politics% within Politics% within Politics% within Politics

PoliticsPoliticsPoliticsPolitics

Liberal/Progressive Moderate Conservative Unsure

DemMatchup Hirono 58% 38% 33% 54%DemMatchupCase 36% 53% 61% 33%

DemMatchup

Unsure 7% 9% 6% 13%TotalTotal 100% 100% 100% 100%

DemMatchup * PartyID CrosstabulationDemMatchup * PartyID CrosstabulationDemMatchup * PartyID CrosstabulationDemMatchup * PartyID CrosstabulationDemMatchup * PartyID CrosstabulationDemMatchup * PartyID CrosstabulationDemMatchup * PartyID Crosstabulation% within PartyID% within PartyID% within PartyID% within PartyID% within PartyID% within PartyID% within PartyID

PartyIDPartyIDPartyIDPartyID

Democrat Republican Independent Unsure

DemMatchup Hirono 58% 20% 27% 34%DemMatchupCase 35% 73% 62% 55%

DemMatchup

Unsure 7% 6% 11% 10%TotalTotal 100% 100% 100% 100%

Civil Beat Poll, June 5-7, 2012731 Likely Democratic Senate Primary Voters – Margin of Error +/- 3.6%

Page 12: The Civil Beat Poll — June 2012 Democratic Senate Primary

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DemMatchup * Race_Ethnicity CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Race_Ethnicity CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Race_Ethnicity CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Race_Ethnicity CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Race_Ethnicity CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Race_Ethnicity CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Race_Ethnicity CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Race_Ethnicity CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Race_Ethnicity CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Race_Ethnicity Crosstabulation% within Race_Ethnicity% within Race_Ethnicity% within Race_Ethnicity% within Race_Ethnicity% within Race_Ethnicity% within Race_Ethnicity% within Race_Ethnicity% within Race_Ethnicity% within Race_Ethnicity% within Race_Ethnicity

Race_EthnicityRace_EthnicityRace_EthnicityRace_EthnicityRace_EthnicityRace_EthnicityRace_Ethnicity

Caucasian Japanese Filipino Hawaiian Chinese Hispanic Other/Mixed

DemMatchup

Hirono 44% 47% 44% 62% 37% 38% 49%DemMatchup Case 50% 42% 43% 29% 57% 63% 44%DemMatchup

Unsure 6% 11% 13% 9% 6% 8%TotalTotal 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

DemMatchup * Education CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Education CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Education CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Education CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Education CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Education CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Education Crosstabulation% within Education% within Education% within Education% within Education% within Education% within Education% within Education

EducationEducationEducationEducation

No Degree

High School Degree

College Degree

Graduate Degree

DemMatchup Hirono 42% 50% 45% 45%DemMatchupCase 45% 40% 47% 47%

DemMatchup

Unsure 13% 10% 8% 7%TotalTotal 100% 100% 100% 100%

DemMatchup * Religion CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Religion CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Religion CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Religion CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Religion CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Religion CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Religion CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Religion CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Religion CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Religion CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Religion CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Religion Crosstabulation% within Religion% within Religion% within Religion% within Religion% within Religion% within Religion% within Religion% within Religion% within Religion% within Religion% within Religion% within Religion

ReligionReligionReligionReligionReligionReligionReligionReligionReligion

Catholic

Evangelical Mormon

Other Christia

nBuddhis

t Shinto Jewish Other NoneDemMatchup

Hirono 46% 30% 42% 43% 62% 80% 60% 35% 48%DemMatchup Case 47% 58% 42% 47% 28% 20% 40% 62% 45%DemMatchup

Unsure 7% 12% 15% 10% 10% 3% 6%TotalTotal 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Civil Beat Poll, June 5-7, 2012731 Likely Democratic Senate Primary Voters – Margin of Error +/- 3.6%

Page 13: The Civil Beat Poll — June 2012 Democratic Senate Primary

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DemMatchup * Military_Family CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Military_Family CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Military_Family CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Military_Family CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Military_Family Crosstabulation% within Military_Family% within Military_Family% within Military_Family% within Military_Family% within Military_Family

Military_FamilyMilitary_Family Yes No

DemMatchup Hirono 40% 47%DemMatchupCase 50% 45%

DemMatchup

Unsure 10% 8%TotalTotal 100% 100%

DemMatchup * Annual Household Income CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Annual Household Income CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Annual Household Income CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Annual Household Income CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Annual Household Income CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Annual Household Income Crosstabulation% within Annual Household Income% within Annual Household Income% within Annual Household Income% within Annual Household Income% within Annual Household Income% within Annual Household Income

Annual Household IncomeAnnual Household IncomeAnnual Household Income

$50,000 or less

$50,000-$100,000

$100,000 or More

DemMatchup Hirono 53% 45% 38%DemMatchupCase 38% 48% 54%

DemMatchup

Unsure 9% 7% 8%TotalTotal 100% 100% 100%

Civil Beat Poll, June 5-7, 2012731 Likely Democratic Senate Primary Voters – Margin of Error +/- 3.6%

Page 14: The Civil Beat Poll — June 2012 Democratic Senate Primary

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Second Congressional District Only:DemMatchup * Congress CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Congress CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Congress CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Congress CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Congress CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Congress CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Congress CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Congress Crosstabulation

% within Congress% within Congress% within Congress% within Congress% within Congress% within Congress% within Congress% within Congress

CongressCongressCongressCongressCongress

Marx Gabbard Hanneman Kiaaina Unsure

DemMatchup Hirono 58% 46% 49% 56% 38%DemMatchupCase 39% 48% 46% 44% 40%

DemMatchup

Unsure 3% 7% 5% 23%TotalTotal 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Oahu Only:DemMatchup * Mayor CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Mayor CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Mayor CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Mayor CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Mayor CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Mayor CrosstabulationDemMatchup * Mayor Crosstabulation

% within Mayor% within Mayor% within Mayor% within Mayor% within Mayor% within Mayor% within Mayor

MayorMayorMayorMayor Cayetano Carlisle Caldwell Unsure

DemMatchup Hirono 32% 50% 54% 33%DemMatchupCase 61% 39% 41% 41%

DemMatchup

Unsure 7% 11% 5% 25%TotalTotal 100% 100% 100% 100%

Civil Beat Poll, June 5-7, 2012731 Likely Democratic Senate Primary Voters – Margin of Error +/- 3.6%

Page 15: The Civil Beat Poll — June 2012 Democratic Senate Primary

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--In a [General Election] contest between Mazie Hirono and Linda Lingle, who would you vote for? [NOTE: Democratic Primary Voters only]

QHironoLingleQHironoLingleQHironoLingle

Hirono 65% Lingle 28%

Unsure 7%

Total 100%

HironoLingle * DemMatchup CrosstabulationHironoLingle * DemMatchup CrosstabulationHironoLingle * DemMatchup CrosstabulationHironoLingle * DemMatchup CrosstabulationHironoLingle * DemMatchup CrosstabulationHironoLingle * DemMatchup Crosstabulation% within DemMatchup% within DemMatchup% within DemMatchup% within DemMatchup% within DemMatchup% within DemMatchup

DemMatchupDemMatchupDemMatchup Hirono Case Unsure

HironoLingle Hirono 94% 38% 50%HironoLingleLingle 4% 55% 19%

HironoLingle

Unsure 2% 7% 31%TotalTotal 100% 100% 100%

--In a [General Election] contest between Ed Case and Linda Lingle, who would you vote for? [NOTE: Democratic Primary Voters only]

QCaseLingleQCaseLingleQCaseLingle

Case 68% Lingle 18%

Unsure 14%

Total 100%

CaseLingle * DemMatchup CrosstabulationCaseLingle * DemMatchup CrosstabulationCaseLingle * DemMatchup CrosstabulationCaseLingle * DemMatchup CrosstabulationCaseLingle * DemMatchup CrosstabulationCaseLingle * DemMatchup Crosstabulation% within DemMatchup% within DemMatchup% within DemMatchup% within DemMatchup% within DemMatchup% within DemMatchup

DemMatchupDemMatchupDemMatchup Hirono Case Unsure

CaseLingle Case 68% 70% 52%CaseLingleLingle 12% 25% 15%

CaseLingle

Unsure 20% 5% 33%TotalTotal 100% 100% 100%

Civil Beat Poll, June 5-7, 2012731 Likely Democratic Senate Primary Voters – Margin of Error +/- 3.6%