public opinion poll bosnia and herzegovina (bih) august … · q bps – bosnian-herzegovinian...

Public Opinion Poll Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH)

August 2010

Public opinion poll in Bosnia and Herzegovina

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Methodology

22

qq Quantitative research using faceQuantitative research using face--toto--face method within face method within householdhousehold

qq Sample size n=2000 respodents aged 18+Sample size n=2000 respodents aged 18+

qq TwoTwo--stage stratified random sample (stratification by region and setstage stratified random sample (stratification by region and settlement type)tlement type)

qq RandomizationRandomization

qq Random selection of the type of settlementRandom selection of the type of settlement

qq Random selection of the HH usingRandom selection of the HH using thethe ““random routrandom routee”” techniquetechnique

qq Random selection of the respondeRandom selection of the respondennt within HH using Kish tablest within HH using Kish tables

qq Data collection timing: August Data collection timing: August 22--11, 11, 2010.2010.

qq Sampling error for the full sample is +/Sampling error for the full sample is +/--2.2%; findings that pertain to subgroups are subject to a higher2.2%; findings that pertain to subgroups are subject to a highermargin of error. margin of error.

qq Ballot tests and pBallot tests and party ratings were arty ratings were conducted conducted usingusing thethe ““secret ballotsecret ballot”” methodmethod..

q Note: Due to a technical problem with the ballot for question 34, (“If the election for RS President were being held next weekend, for whom would you vote?”) this question was re-asked he using the CATI (computer-assisted telephone interviewing) method. On August 19, 2010, 747 supplemental interviews were conducted, the results of which were used for the analysis of this question.

q Polling results do not and are not intended to predict future election results.


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GLOSSARY PRINCIPAL POLITICAL PARTIES

q BPS – Bosnian-Herzegovinian Patriotic Partyq DP – Democratic Partyq HDZ 1990 – Croatian Democratic Union 1990q HDZ BiH – Croatian Democratic Union of Bosnia and Herzegovinaq Nasa Stranka (or NS) – Our Partyq NSP – New Socialist Partyq NSRZB – People’s Party of Work for Progressq PDP – Party for Democratic Progressq SBB BiH – Alliance for a Better Future for Bosnia and Herzegovinaq SBiH (or Stranka za BiH) – Party for Bosnia and Herzegovinaq SDA – Party of Democratic Actionq SDP – Social Democratic Partyq SDS – Serb Democratic Partyq SNSD – Alliance of Independent Social Democratsq SP – Socialist Party of the Republika Srpska


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üü General General AttitudesAttitudes

üü Campaign InformationCampaign Information

üü Government Government PerformancePerformance

üü VoterVoter PPreferencesreferences

üü EU / NATO EU / NATO IIntegrationntegration

üü Territorial ArrangementTerritorial Arrangement


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GENERAL GENERAL ATTITUDESATTITUDES

q An overwhelming majority feel that BiH is moving in the wrong direction.q Almost nine-in-ten citizens (87%) say that things in BiH are moving in the wrong

direction, a slightly higher percentage than observed in earlier waves of research conducted in October 2009 and April 2010.

q The percentage of the population thinking things are moving in the right direction is much higher in the northern Republika Srpska (RS) and Brcko District (26%) than in other regions of the country.

q Only one citizen in 10 (12%) report that their lives have improved over the last 4 years. q More than one half of citizens (54%) think that their lives have deteriorated; one-

third say that their lives have not changed (34%). q The percentage of those who say their lives have improved is slightly higher in

northern RS (20%), whereas the residents of central Bosnia overwhelmingly think that their living conditions are worse then before (75%).

q Expectations for the year ahead are split, but are not optimistic: q 23% expect life to improve for themselves and their families, 39% think that it will

stay the same, and 37% think that their lives will further deteriorate.


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GENERAL GENERAL ATTITUDESATTITUDES

q The above assessments are deeply connected to individual and family finances. q Only 14% of respondents report improvement in their household financial situation

over the last 12 months. q More than eight in 10 say that their household financial position has either

stagnated (43%) or deteriorated (41%). qq By an overwhelming margin, survey respondents think that the major problem in BiH is

unemployment. q In an open ended question, 41% cite unemployment first when asked the top three

problems faced by BiH, while the next two problems – corruption and crime are mentioned first by 13% and 6%, respectively.

q In addition to unemployment, other economic issues – poverty, living standards, salaries, pensions etc. are mentioned by many respondents, making it very clear that the stagnant economy and household finances are driving public attitudes and framing this election in the minds of voters.

q A subsequent closed question reiterates this point – out of seven choices, 51% cite economic development and employment as most important for improving the lives of BiH citizens.

q


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Generally speaking, do you think that things in BiH are moving in the right or wrong direction?

7

Base: Total Target Population By Region

8%

10%

5%

1%

3%

26%

13%

91%

88%

93%

98%

97%

72%

83%

1%

2%

2%

1%

0%

2%

4%

Sarajevo

Tuzla

Bihac

MiddleBosnia

Herzegovina

North RS &Brcko

East RS

The right direction

Wrong direction

Do not know / No answ er

Things are moving in the “wrong direction”:

August 2010 87%April 2010 82%October 2009 83%


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…Do you think that your own life and the life of your family members has improved, worsened, or is about the same, in the last 4 years?

8


Better12%

Worse54%

Same34%

Do not know / No answer

0%

10%

12%

13%

4%

9%

20%

9%

62%

43%

49%

72%

57%

37%

65%

26%

44%

38%

24%

35%

43%

26%

3%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

Sarajevo

Tuzla

Bihac

MiddleBosnia

Herzegovina

North RS &Brcko

East RS

Better

Worse

Same

Do not know / No answer


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What three problems would you name as the biggest problems facing BiH today? (Top responses)

9


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In your opinion, what is most important for improving the lives of citizens in BiH, out of the following?

10

Base: Total Target Population


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What issues, topics or problems do you think that BiH politicians talk too much and too little about?

11

TALK TOO MUCH

TALK TOO LITTLE

* Multiple answers accepted


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üü Government Government Performance Performance

üü VoterVoter PPreferencesreferences




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CAMPAIGN INFORMATION

q Two thirds (67%) of respondents consider themselves at least somewhat informed about the coming general elections – the candidates, party platforms, policy plans, etc.q Overall, 24% say they are “very well informed” and 43% “somewhat informed”,

compared to just one in ten who say that they are “not informed at all” and 22% who are “not very well informed” about the campaign.

q Television is, by far, the main source of information about the campaign (86%).q However, newspapers, radio and person-to-person contact are also important

conduits for election-related information, and may be more effective.

q More than two thirds (69%) of survey respondents would like to see televised debates where candidates and party officials would address public problems and offer their plans and solutions. Voters in Herzegovina (86%) and central Bosnia (76%) are most enthusiastic about debates.

q Most important, almost six in 10 (58%) say that these debates would be important in helping them decide whom to vote for in the coming elections. The more likely a person is to vote, the more important the debates will be for him/her.


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How well informed do you consider yourself to be about the upcoming general elections - the candidates and party platforms, policy plans etc?

14


73%

54%

73%

72%

62%

70%

63%

23%

45%

26%

27%

38%

30%

35%

Sarajevo

Tuzla

Bihac

MiddleBosnia

Herzegovina

North RS &Brcko

East RS

Sum +

Sum -


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Would you like to see televised debates among candidates and parties, where they address BiH problems and offer solutions if elected?

15


Yes69%

No26%

Do not know 5%

66%

62%

67%

76%

86%

64%

65%

25%

28%

33%

20%

13%

32%

31%

10%

10%

0%

4%

1%

4%

5%

Sarajevo

Tuzla

Bihac

MiddleBosnia

Herzegovina

North RS &Brcko

East RS

Yes

No

Do not know


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Would you like to see televised debates among candidates and parties, where they address BiH problems and offer solutions if elected?

16

Base: Total Target Population by Party Support

75%

70%67% 67%

88%

78% 78%

62%

78%

70%

53%

21%

26% 26%29%

12%

19% 19%

34%

14%

25%

37%

4% 3%7%

4%0%

3% 3%5%

8%5%

10%

SDP BIH SNSD SDA SDS HDZ BIH SzaBIH SBB BIH PDP NS-NSP Other DK / Refuse

Yes

No

I do not know /Refuse


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How important would such debates be to you in deciding what candidates and parties or coalitions to vote for?

17

Base: Total Target Population By Likelihood of Voting

69%

56%

42%

28%

37%

28%

40%

53%

55%

51%

Certainly

Probably

Probably not

Certainly not

Do not know /No answer

Sum +

Sum -


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How important would such debates be to you in deciding what candidates and parties or coalitions to vote for?

18

Base: Total Target Population by Party Support

59% 59%64%

59%

72% 70%75%

40%

65%

57%

48%

17%13%

9%14%

10%15%

6%

25%

16% 16%

22%

SDP BIH SNSD SDA SDS HDZ BIH SzaBIH SBB BIH PDP NS-NSP Other DK/Refuse

Sum +

Sum -


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üü Voter PVoter Preferencesreferences




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GOVERNMENT GOVERNMENT PERFORMANCEPERFORMANCE

q When asked to list the top 5 priorities to be addressed by the government, 70% of respondents included reducing unemployment and confronting corruption and crime,while improving citizens’ standard of living was close behind at 55%.

q As for government performance in dealing with the country’s problems, dissatisfaction is palpable. Roughly nine in 10 respondents describe themselves as dissatisfied with government attempts to address the three major problems mentioned above.

q Citizens are most satisified with the government’s work in protecting their ethnic group (28% satisfied), development of tourism (25%), and reform of the educational system (24%). But even on these issues, large majorities find government performance lacking.


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How satisfied are you with the current government’s way of solving the following issues?

21

Base: Total target population


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VOTERVOTER PREFERENCESPREFERENCES

q 8 out of 10 citizens interviewed say they would vote if general elections were held “next weekend.”q Those most likely to vote have the following characteristics:

q Between 45 and 59 years of age;q Better educated, professionals (managers, experts);q Citizens of the Sarajevo Canton.

q Among survey respondents, the most common motivations to vote for a particular party are: q This party deals with the most important problems (27%);q I always vote for this party (26%) and q This party stands for the same values as I do (21%).

q SDS, HDZ BiH and SNSD have the most loyal voters who “always vote for their party.”

q SDP is the first choice for the Parliament of FBiH with 29% of the vote, followed by SDA with 9% and HDZ BiH with 7%.

q SNSD is the leading party in RS (38%), with the biggest number of votes for the National Assembly of RS, followed by SDS with 17% and PDP with 6%.

q Most respondents who declare a first choice do not declare a second choice (64%), suggesting a relatively static electorate.

q One voter in 10 says that they might change their vote to their second choice if that party’s leader and program are sufficiently compelling.


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If general elections were held next weekend, how likely is it that you would vote?

24

46%

34%

80%

18%

8%

10%

2%

I wouldcertanly vote

I wouldprobably vote

Sum +

Sum -

I probablywould not

vote

I wouldcertanly not

vote

DK / NA

46%

47%

18%

35%

32%

55%

10%

10%

6%

10%

10%

6%

2%

2%

5%

FBiH

RS

DistrictBrcko

I would certanly vote

I would probably vote

I probably would notvoteI would certanly notvote

DK / NA

Base: Total Target Population By Entity


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25

If the election for (the Serb member of the) BiH Presidency were being held next week, for whom would you vote?

25

39%

24%

1%

36%

1%

0 20 40 60

NebojsaRadmanovic

Mladen Ivanic

Rajko Popovic

DK / NA

Other

Base: Certain voters, RS

45%

24%

29%

2%

Nebojsa Radmanovic

Mladen Ivanic

DK / NA

Other

Base: Total Target Population/RS


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26

If the election for (the Bosniak and Croat members of the) BiH Presidency were being held next week, for whom would you vote?

26

40%10%

5%4%4%

3%2%1%

30%2%

Zeljko KomsicHaris Silajdzic

Fahrudin RadoncicBorjana Kristo

Bakir IzetbegovicMartin Raguz

Jerko Ivankovic LijanovicIbrahim Ðedovic

DK/ NAOther

Base: Certain Voters, FBiH

39%

9%

6%

5%

3%

3%

2%

1%

30%

2%

Zeljko Komsic

Haris Silajdzic

Fahrudin Radoncic

Bakir Izetbegovic

Borjana Kristo

Martin Raguz

Jerko Ivankovi Lijanovic

Ibrahim Ðedovic

DK / NA

Other

Base: Total Target Population, FBiH


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20.3%

13.5%

7.1%

6.2%

5.3%

3.8%

3.5%

2.2%

1.9%

1.8%

1.7%

1.5%

1.4%

1.2%

1.1%

1.0%

20.6%

SDP - SOCIJALDEMOKRATSKA PARTIJA BIH

SNSD - SAVEZ NEZAVISNIH SOCIJALDEMOKRATA

SDA - STRANKA DEMOKRATSKE AKCIJE

SDS - SRPSKA DEMOKRATSKA STRANKA

HDZ - HRVATSKA DEMOKRATSKA ZAJEDNICA BIH

STRANKA ZA BIH - STRANKA ZA BOSNU I HERCEGOVINU

SAVEZ ZA BOLJU BUDUCNOST BiH - FAHRUDIN RADONCIC

PDP - PARTIJA DEMOKRATSKOG PROGRESA

HRVATSKA KOALICIJA HDZ 1990 - HSP BIH

BOSS - BOSANSKA STRANKA - MIRNES AJANOVIC

BPS - BOSANSKOHERCEGOVCKA PATRIOTSKA STRANKA

NARODNA STRANKA RADOM ZA BOLJITAK

DNS - DEMOKRATSKI NARODNI SAVEZ

NASA STRANKA - NOVA SOCIJALISTICKA PARTIJA

STRANKA KOKUZA - SKOK

SP - SOCIJALISTICKA PARTIJA

DK/ NA

27

Parliamentary Assembly of BiHBase: Total target population


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Parliamentary Assembly of BiH

28

Base: Certain Voters / Comparison with previous waves

19.6

15.7

9.3

6.9

6.2

4.5

3.7

2.3

1.7

1.7

22

14.5

12.1

6.7

5.1

4

4.4

2

3.1

2

17.3

16.7

16

5.8

6.3

2.2

5.5

3.7

1.9

2.5

SDP -SOCIJALDEMOKRATSKA

PARTIJA BIH SNSD - SAVEZ NEZAVISNIH

SOCIJALDEMOKRATA

SDA - STRANKADEMOKRATSKE AKCIJE

HDZ - HRVATSKADEMOKRATSKA ZAJEDNICA

BIHSDS - SRPSKA

DEMOKRATSKA STRANKASAVEZ ZA BOLJU

BUDUCNOST BiH - FAHRUDINRADONCIC

STRANKA ZA BIH - STRANKAZA BOSNU I HERCEGOVINU

BPS -BOSANSKOHERCEGOVACKA

PATRIOTSKA STRANKAPDP - PARTIJA

DEMOKRATSKOG PROGRESA

HRVATSKA KOALICIJA HDZ1990 - HSP BIH

August 2010

April 2010

October 2009


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If the election for RS President were being held next week, for whom would you vote?

50.724.0

1.20.90.60.60.60.40.30.20.20.10.10.10.1

19.9

Milorad DodikOgnjen Tadic

Emil VlajkiDragan Kalinic

Sevket HafizovicDubravka Lipovac

Ivan KrndeljGoran Matic

Agan DelibajricMuharem

Dragan MrganBesim Hamidovic

Dragan DJurdjevicSlavko DragicevicEnes Suljkanovic

DK / NA

29

56.521.9

1.11.00.90.40.40.30.20.20.20.20.20.2

16.3

Milorad DodikOgnjen Tadic

Dragan KalinicEmil Vlajki

Ivan KrndeljDubravka Lipovac

Sevket HafizovicDragan Mrgan

Besim HamidovicGoran Matic

Muharem MurselovicAgan Delibajric

Slavko DragicevicEnes Suljkanovic

DK / NA

Base: Total Target Population, RS

Base: Certain Voters, RS


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38.2%

16.9%

5.9%

3.9%

2.4%

2.1%

1.9%

1.8%

1.8%

1.2%

21.1%

SNSD - SAVEZ NEZAVISNIH SOCIJALDEMOKRATA

SDS - SRPSKA DEMOKRATSKA STRANKA

PDP - PARTIJA DEMOKRATSKOG PROGRESA

DNS - DEMOKRATSKI NARODNI SAVEZ

SRS - SRPSKA RADIKALNA STRANKA REPUBLIKE

DEMOKRATSKA PARTIJA (Dragan Cavic)

SOCIJALISTICKA PARTIJA I PARTIJA UJEDINJENIH PENZIONERA


SRPSKA RADIKALNA STRANKA - dr. Vojislav Seselj


DK / NA30

Parliament of the Republika SrpskaBase: Total target population RS


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Parliament of the Republika Srpska

31

46%

17%

5%

48.7

21.8

10.6

51.6

21

5.5

SNSD - SAVEZNEZAVISNIH

SOCIJALDEMOKRATA

SDS - SRPSKADEMOKRATSKA

STRANKA

PDP - PARTIJADEMOKRATSKOG

PROGRESA

August 2010

April 2010

October 2009

Base: Certain Voters RS / Comparison with previous waves


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28.9%

9.3%

7.3%

6.1%

5.3%

2.8%

2.6%

2.4%

2.2%

2.0%

1.8%

1.3%

1.2%

24.2%


SDA - STRANKA DEMOKRATSKE AKCIJE

HDZ - HRVATSKA DEMOKRATSKA ZAJEDNICA BIH

STRANKA ZA BIH - STRANKA ZA BOSNU I HERCEGOVINU

SAVEZ ZA BOLJU BUDUCNOST BiH - FAHRUDIN RADONCIC

HRVATSKA KOALICIJA ZDZ 1990 - HSP BIH

BPS - BOSANSKOHERCEGOVACKA PATRIOTSKA STRANKA

BOSS - BOSANSKA STRANKA - MIRNES AJANOVIC

STRANKA KOKUZA - SKOK

NARODNA STRANKA RADOM ZA BOLJITAK

DNZ - DEMOKRATSKA NARODNA ZAJEDNICA BIH

STRANKA DEMOKRATSKE AKTIVNOSTI - ASDA


DK / NA

32

Parliament of the Federation BiHBase: Total target population FBiH


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Parliament of the Federation BiH

33

28%

11%

9%

7%

5%

2%

33.7

18.1

9.4

5.7

7.4

3.1

27.5

25.1

9

3.5

9.5

3.1

SDP -SOCIJALDEMOKRATSKA

PARTIJA BIH

SDA - STRANKADEMOKRATSKE AKCIJE

HDZ - HRVATSKADEMOKRATSKAZAJEDNICA BIH

SAVEZ ZA BOLJUBUDUCNOST BiH -

FAHRUDIN RADONCIC

STRANKA ZA BIH -STRANKA ZA BOSNU I

HERCEGOVINU

HRVATSKA KOALICIJAHDZ 1990 - HSP BIH

August 2010

April 2010

October 2009

Base: Certain Voters FBiH / Comparison with previous waves


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EU/NATO INTEGRATION

3535

q Consistent with findings from earlier surveys, almost nine in 10 citizens (86%) support the accession of BiH to the EU. q Citizens of FBiH are more in favor of EU accession than the citizens of RS.

q More than two thirds (70%) support the accession of BiH to NATO.q On joining NATO, the split between attitudes in FBiH and RS is pronounced, as

only 33% of respondents in the RS are for this option, compared to 90% in FBiH.

q Almost two thirds (62%) of citizens support the presence of the Office of the High Representative (OHR) in BiH.q Again, significantly fewer people in the RS (22%) react favorably to the OHR, than

in FBiH (84%).


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Do you personally support or oppose BiH accession to EU?

36


64%

22%

86%

13%

7%

5%

2%

Completelysupport

Somewhatsupport

Sum +

Sum -

Somewhat donot support

Completely donot support

Do not know /no opinion

91%

95%

94%

99%

89%

76%

59%

7%

4%

5%

0%

11%

22%

35%

Sarajevo

Tuzla

Bihac

MiddleBosnia

Herzegovina

North RS &Brcko

East RS

Sum +

Sum -


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Do you personally support or oppose joining of BiH to NATO?

37

90%

33%

51%

8%

63%

48%

FBiH

RS

DistrictBrcko

Sum +

Sum -



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79%73%

18%

47%

9%19%

17%

32%

3%

23%

17%10%

38%

4% 2%2%4% 2%

OtherBosniakSerbCroat

Completely support Somewhat support Somewhat do not support

Completely do not support Do not know / no opinion

Do you personally support or oppose joining of BiH to NATO?

38

Base: Total Target Population by Ethnicity


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84%

22%

15%

14%

73%

81%

FBiH

RS

DistrictBrcko

Sum +

Sum -

Do you personally support or oppose the OHR’s presence in BiH?

39

37%

25%

62%

36%

16%

20%

3%

Completelysupport

Somewhatsupport

Sum +

Sum -

Somewhat donot support

Completely donot support

Do not know /no opinion



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41

Which of the following best describes your attitude about the territorial arrangement of BiH?

41

69%

9%

4%

7%

46%

43%

1%

27%

36%

12%

4%

14%

9%

6%

0%

3%

8%

3%

FBiH

RS

DistrictBrcko

Entities,level of governmentshould be abolished

Regulation of the state shouldremain unchanged

Bosnia and Herzegovina tobe divided into more than 5 or6 economic regions, whichshould have a level ofautonomyIt is necessary to form a third,Croat entity

Bosnia and Herzegovinashould be divided into threeindependent states

Do not know/Refusal



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42

Which of the following best describes your attitude about the territorial arrangement of BiH?

42

78%

9%

26%

77%

8%

46%

8%

7%

1%

27%

2%

7%

5%

53%

9%

6%

10%

3%

3%

8%

1%

6%

1%Bosniak

Serb

Croat

Other

Entities, as level of government should be abolishedRegulation of the state should remain unchangedBosnia and Herzegovina to be divided into more than 5 or 6 economic regions, which should have a level of autonomyIt is necessary to form a third, Croat entityBosnia and Herzegovina should be divided into three independent statesDo not know/Refusal

Base: Total Target Population by Ethnicity


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public opinion poll bosnia and herzegovina (bih) august … · q bps – bosnian-herzegovinian...

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