the changing southern forest landscape what might it mean for forest owners & service...
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The Changing Southern Forest Landscape What Might It Mean for Forest Owners & Service Providers?. John G. Greis U.S. Forest Service. The South and Southern Forests are Changing…. Population Areal Extent Location Ownership & Objectives Forest Health Manageability Markets. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Southern Forest Futures ProjectSouthern Forest Futures Project
The Changing Southern The Changing Southern Forest Landscape Forest Landscape
What Might It Mean for Forest What Might It Mean for Forest
Owners & Service Providers?Owners & Service Providers?
John G. GreisU.S. Forest Service
Southern Forest Futures ProjectSouthern Forest Futures Project
The South and Southern The South and Southern Forests are Changing…Forests are Changing…
• Population• Areal Extent• Location• Ownership & Objectives• Forest Health• Manageability• Markets
Southern Forest Futures ProjectSouthern Forest Futures Project
Forest area and Forest area and ownershipownership
Southern Forest Futures ProjectSouthern Forest Futures Project
Forest Area and Ownership - Forest Area and Ownership - SouthSouth
Forest industry
20%
NI private69%
Other public
5%
Nationalforest
6%
200 million acres
Source: SFRA, 2002
Southern Forest Futures ProjectSouthern Forest Futures Project
Ownership DistributionOwnership Distribution
North South
West
Federal State Local
Family Business
U.S.
Source: N.W.O. Survey
Southern Forest Futures ProjectSouthern Forest Futures Project
Forest Area by Ownership Forest Area by Ownership Group - SouthGroup - South
0
60
120
180
National forest Other public Forestindustry
Nonindustrialprivate
Ownership class
Mill
ion
acr
es
1953 1963 1982 1989 1999
Source: SFRA
Southern Forest Futures ProjectSouthern Forest Futures Project
Forest Type Changes - Forest Type Changes - SouthSouth
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
m a
cre
s
plantedpine
naturalpine
oak pine
uplandhardwood
lowlandhardwood
Reflects an ongoing set of dynamics: natural succession, management, land use changes… future indicates loss of natural area, increase in plantations.Source: SFRA
Southern Forest Futures ProjectSouthern Forest Futures Project
Population—U.S. and Population—U.S. and SouthSouth
0.00
50,000,000.00
100,000,000.00
150,000,000.00
200,000,000.00
250,000,000.00
300,000,000.00
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
South
USA
Source: SFRA, 2002
Southern Forest Futures ProjectSouthern Forest Futures Project
Southern Residents Are:Southern Residents Are:
• Wealthier• Better educated• More non-white• Less rural• Less blue-collar
•…….Than in 1980……• Very similar to rest of USA
Source: SFRA; So. WUI Assessment
Southern Forest Futures ProjectSouthern Forest Futures Project
Private Forest Land and Private Forest Land and OwnersOwners
1953 - 20031953 - 2003
0
100
200
300
400
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year
Are
a (M
M a
cres
)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Ow
ner
s (M
M)
Southern Forest Futures ProjectSouthern Forest Futures Project
Why do they own Why do they own forestland?forestland?
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Firewood
Timber
Land investment
Recreation
Family legacy
Aesthetics
Home/farm
Percent of Family Forestland
Source: N.W.O. Survey
Southern Forest Futures ProjectSouthern Forest Futures Project
Relationships between Relationships between Landholding Size and Landholding Size and Ownership ObjectivesOwnership Objectives
0
25
50
75
100
0 250 500 750 1000
Parcel Size (ac)
Rela
tive I
mport
ance
Aestethics Land investment Home or farm Timber
Source: N.W.O. Survey
Southern Forest Futures ProjectSouthern Forest Futures Project
Relationship between Relationship between Landholding Size and Landholding Size and Management PlansManagement Plans
0
25
50
75
100
0 250 500 750 1000
Pro
babilit
y
Source: N.W.O. Survey
Southern Forest Futures ProjectSouthern Forest Futures Project
Southern Forest Owners: Southern Forest Owners: • 5 million • Increasingly absentee• 29% white collar; 20% retirees• 6% farmers (down from 67% 50 yrs ago)• Diverse management objectives• Mostly do not seek management advice• Small % control more than 1/3 of all
timberland• Vary in how they prefer to receive
information
Source: SFRA
Southern Forest Futures ProjectSouthern Forest Futures Project
Southern Family Forest Southern Family Forest Landowner ObjectivesLandowner Objectives (2006 Focus Groups) (2006 Focus Groups)
• Family Legacy and Inheritance• Investment and Income
Generation• Pride of Ownership• Recreation (Family &Friends)• Wildlife Watching/Hunting
Southern Forest Futures ProjectSouthern Forest Futures Project
What About the Future?What About the Future?
Southern Forest Futures ProjectSouthern Forest Futures Project
Percent-20.1 - 00 - 12.712.7 - 27.327.3 - 49.749.7 - 114.9
Projected change in South’s population 2000 – 2020Source: So. WUI Assessment
Southern Forest Futures ProjectSouthern Forest Futures Project
2020 Forecast ….2020 Forecast ….Southern Residents Will Be:Southern Residents Will Be:
• Increased by 24 million• More urban• Older• More Hispanic and African-
American• Just more than 50% White
Source: So. WUI Assessment
Southern Forest Futures ProjectSouthern Forest Futures Project
Potential forest loss by 2030
-4000
-3500
-3000
-2500
-2000
-1500
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
1500
Alabam
a
Arkansas
Florida
Georgia
Kentucky
Louisiana
Mississippi
North
Carolina
Oklahoma
South
Carolina
Tennessee
Texas
Virginia
1000 a
cre
sRange of Forecast Changes Range of Forecast Changes
U.S. SouthU.S. SouthWear, 2006 (in Draft)Wear, 2006 (in Draft)
Southern Forest Futures ProjectSouthern Forest Futures Project
Urbanization OutcomesUrbanization Outcomes
• Smaller parcel sizes• More difficult management (e.g. smoke)• More recreational pressure• Conversion to non-forest• Economic disincentives to own and
manage• More biocentric ownerships and citizenry• More public resistance to harvests • More local regulations and ordinances
(346 in 2000 vs. 141 in 1992 in South)
Source: SFRA; So. WUI Assessment
Southern Forest Futures ProjectSouthern Forest Futures Project
David Wear Southern Research
Station—USFS Research Triangle Park,
North Carolina
John Greis Southern Region—USFS
Tallahassee, Florida
Southern Forest Futures ProjectSouthern Forest Futures Project
What is the SFFP?What is the SFFP?
A two-year project that will use technical forecasts and expert analysis to examine the potential futures of southern forests and their services…
Southern Forest Futures ProjectSouthern Forest Futures Project
Who?Who?
• US Forest Service• Southern Group of State
Foresters• Other resource agencies• Universities• NGO’s/Associations• Anyone who is interested…
Southern Forest Futures ProjectSouthern Forest Futures Project
Regional Meta IssuesRegional Meta Issues
• Bioenergy• Invasive species• Ownership
Changes• Climate Change
• Fire• Taxes• Water• Wildlife/Forest
Communities• Socio-economics
Southern Forest Futures ProjectSouthern Forest Futures Project
Anticipated SFFP OutputsAnticipated SFFP Outputs
• Final sub-regional reports• Regional meta-issue reports• Forecast and Analysis report• Regional summary report• Data sets and models
Southern Forest Futures ProjectSouthern Forest Futures Project
The Great Challenge: The Great Challenge:
• Assist landowners having diverse, multiple and often non-commodity objectives
• Influence public opinion on forests and forest management
• Engage local governments, planners, engineers and policymakers
• Contribute relevant and professionally prepared information to all of the above
Southern Forest Futures ProjectSouthern Forest Futures Project
Thank You…..Thank You…..
John GreisU.S. Forest Service