THE CHANGING FACE OF TEXAS: Tracking the Economic and Demographic Trans-formations Through 28 Years of Houston Surveys

STEPHEN L. KLINEBERGConference on Megaregions & MetroProsperity:

Regional and Megaregional EquitySeptember 24, 2009

Supported by local foundations, corporations, and individuals, the annual surveys have interviewed 28 scientifically selected successive representative samples of Harris County residents.

In May 1982, just two months after the first Houston Area Sur- vey was completed, the 80-year oil boom suddenly collapsed.

The region recovered from the deep and prolonged recession of the mid 1980s to find itself squarely in the midst of . . .

• a restructured economy and • a demographic revolution.

These are the same transformations that have refashioned American society itself in the past quarter-century. For 28 years, the Houston surveys have tracked area residents’ changing perspectives on these remarkable trends.

THE HOUSTON AREA SURVEY (1982-2009)

THE RESTRUCTURED ECONOMY

The “resource economy” of the industrial era, for which this city was so favorably positioned, has been replaced by a new high-tech, knowledge-based, fully worldwide marketplace.

The traditional “blue collar path” to financial security has now

largely disappeared. Almost all the good-paying jobs today re- quire high levels of technical skills and educational credentials.

In 2008, 74% of the survey respondents disagreed that, “A high school education is enough to get a good job.” In the 2007 survey, 61% agreed that, “There are very few good jobs in today’s economy for people without a college education.”

In this increasingly unequal, hourglass economy, “What you earn,” as the saying goes, “depends on what you’ve learned.”

FIGURE 1: TWO CONTRASTING QUARTER-CENTURIES SINCE WORLD WAR II

116

4

100

9

111

13

114

22

99

46

86

68

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

The Postwar Quarter-Century (1949-1979) The Millennial Quarter-Century (1979-2003)

Perc

en

t In

cre

ase i

n B

efo

re-T

ax I

nco

mes Bottom 20% Second 20% Middle 20% Fourth 20% Top 20% Top 5%

Percent Increases in Before-Tax Household IncomesSource: U.S. Census; Robert H. Frank. 2007. Falling Behind. Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, pp. 10-11.

FIGURE 2: STATES RANKED BY PERCENT AGED 25+ WITH HIGH SCHOOL DIPLOMAS, IN 2004*

*Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Current Population Survey (CPS), 2004 Annual Social and Economic Supplement

92.3

91.9

91.9

91.3

91.0

90.8

90.8

90.2

89.8

89.7

78.3

85.2

Minnesota (1)

Montana (2)

Wyoming (2)

Nebraska (4)

Utah (5)

New Hampshire (6)

Vermont (6)

Alaska (8)

Iowa (9)

Washington (10)

Texas ( 50)

United States

0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0

Percent

FIGURE 3: STATES RANKED BY PERCENT AGED 25+ WHO ARE COLLEGE GRADUATES, IN 2004*

* Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Current Population Survey (CPS), 2004 Annual Social and Economic Supplement

36.7

35.5

35.4

35.2

34.6

34.5

34.2

33.1

32.5

31.7

24.5

27.7

Massachusetts (1)

Colorado (2)

New Hampshire (3)

Maryland (4)

New Jersey (5)

Connecticut (6)

Vermont (7)

Virginia (8)

Minnesota (9)

California (10)

Texas (35)

United States

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0

Percent

THE DEMOGRAPHIC REVOLUTION

Along with the major immigration capitals of L.A. and N.Y.C., and closely following upon Miami, San Francisco, and Chi- cago, Houston is at the forefront of the new diversity that is refashioning the socio-political landscape of urban America. Throughout all of its history . . .

• this was essentially a bi-racial Southern city,

• dominated and controlled, in an automatic, taken- for-granted way, by white men.

Today . . .

• Houston is one of the most culturally diverse metro-politan areas in the country, and

• all of its ethnic communities are now “minorities.”

FIGURE 4: THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSFOR-MATIONS OF HARRIS COUNTY (1960-2007)

Source: U.S. Census (www.census.gov); classifications based on Texas State Data Center conventions; total populations are given in parentheses; *from the 2007 Official Population Estimates.

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

1960(1,243,258)

1970(1,741,912)

1980(2,409,547)

1990(2,818,199)

2000(3,400,578)

2007, est.*(3,935,855)

Po

pu

latio

n, i

n M

illio

ns

Anglos Blacks Hispanics Asians/Others

6.0% 19.8%

9.9%

20.1%

69.2%

15.5%

19.7%

62.7%

22.7%

19.1%

54.0%

6.3%

32.9%

18.3%

42.5%

6.6%

38.6%

18.2%

36.5%

73.9%

0.3%

0.8%

2.1%

4.1%

INTERACTIONS OF ETHNICITY AND AGE

The other demographic revolution: the remarkable “aging,” or “graying,” of the American population.

Today’s seniors are primarily Anglos, as are the 76 million Americans born between 1946 and 1964, now aged 44 to 62. In the next 30 years, the numbers over age 65 will double.

The younger cohorts, who will replace the “Baby Boomers,” are disproportionately non-Anglo and far less privileged.

The “aging of America” is thus a division not only by genera- tion, but also by socioeconomic status and ethnic background.

Nowhere is this ongoing transformation more clearly seen than in the age distributions of the Harris County population.

FIGURE 5: THE PROPORTIONS IN FOUR AGE GROUPS WHO ARE ANGLO, BLACK, LATINO, AND ASIAN OR OTHER (2004-2009, COMBINED)

59.6

42.3

23.5

16.718.4

21.123.5

16.5

31.7

46.0

2.95.6 5.0

6.9

68.5

12.0

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

Ages 60-93 (N=701) Ages 45-59 (N=990) Ages 30-44 (N=826) Ages 18-29 (N=620)

Percen

t o

f R

esp

on

den

ts

Anglos Blacks Hispanics Asians/Others

FIGURE 6: PERCENT OF TEXAS POPULATION BY AGE GROUP AND ETHNICITY, IN 2000

39.541.6

45.0 45.043.1 44.4

47.8

53.0

57.260.2

63.566.4 67.1

72.6

44.041.3

38.0 38.440.5

38.635.3

30.5

26.724.2

22.420.6 20.3

16.7

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0Percent

Anglo Hispanic

FIGURE 7: PERCENT OF TEXAS POPULATION BY AGE GROUP AND ETHNICITY, IN 2040*

* Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario

17.719.3 19.9 20.3 19.8 19.3 19.4 20.5 20.6 21.9

25.3 26.5 27.2

39.8

69.967.8 66.5 65.5 66.0 66.8 66.4

64.362.6

60.6

56.7 55.252.3

37.1

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0Percent

Anglo Hispanic

CONCLUSIONS: THE CHALLENGE AND PROMISE OF THE NEW DIVERSITY

This state’s burgeoning diversity constitutes a tremendous potential asset. If the educational differentials can be sub- stantially reduced, Texas will be able to capitalize fully on the advantages of having a young, multicultural and multilingual workforce, positioned for success in the global economy.

Yet if most Texans continue to live and work in segregated enclaves and remain divided by mutual misperceptions, re- inforced by widening differences in educational attainment, the new diversity will instead inevitably diminish the state’s competitiveness and set the stage for serious social conflict.

If it is to flourish in the new era, Texas will need to grow into a far more unified and inclusive multiethnic society, committed to ensuring full participation and equal rights for all its residents.

The “Urban Research Center” at Rice UniversityProfessor Stephen L. Klineberg, Director713-348-3484 or slk@rice.edu

Contact Rice University (at: corrul@rice.edu; or call713-348-4225) for copies of the following publications: * the report on 24 years of Houston surveys (Public Perceptions in Remarkable Times, 2005) * the report on surveys in the six major sectors of thegreater Houston area (Regional Perspectives, 2007)

For further information, please visit the center’s web sites, at: www.houstonareasurvey.org or www.urc.rice.edu

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