the changing california population census 2000 and projections dowell myers usc school of policy,...
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THE CHANGINGTHE CHANGINGCALIFORNIA POPULATIONCALIFORNIA POPULATIONCENSUS 2000 AND PROJECTIONS
Dowell Myers
USC School of Policy, Planning, and Development
http://www.usc.edu/sppd/census2000
http://www.usc.edu/schools/sppd/futures/
TopicsTopics
When are the Census 2000 Results?
Racial and Ethnic Change
Demographic Futures for California
Immigration and Settlement
Schedule of Census 2000 Data ReleaseSchedule of Census 2000 Data Release
Spring 2001 -- Race & Hispanic totals
Summer 2001-- Basic variables of population and housing
Fall 2001 -- Basic variables repeated for each race
Spring 2002 -- Economic and other detailed variables
Questions Answered from Census DataQuestions Answered from Census Data
Totals-- how many people did we grow, and where?
Composition -- how much did the population make-up change?
Dynamics -- what are the dynamics of change over time?
Future -- what can we learn about the future of the residents?
Making Sense from the DataMaking Sense from the Data
SELECTIVE CHOICE
ANALYSIS
the
SEA
of
RAW
DATA
Interpretation
Some General Lessons for Policy ActionSome General Lessons for Policy Action
UNDERSTAND YOUR CONTEXT
GROUNDS FOR OPTIMISM
the static picture is depressing
BUT
the dynamic picture shows strong upward mobility
LEVERAGING THE DYNAMICS OF CHANGE
population change creates a moving target small actions face relentless & immovable forces
za
accelerating immigrant integration
investing in children has the big payoff, but not for 20 years
mitigating short-term frictions of ethnic change
fostering intergenerational and interethnic sense of community and a shared future
Some General Lessons for Policy ActionSome General Lessons for Policy Action
LEVERAGING THE DYNAMICS OF CHANGE
Racial and Ethnic ChangesRacial and Ethnic Changes
CENSUS OF 2000CENSUS OF 2000(Asked of Everyone)(Asked of Everyone)
RACIAL AND HISPANIC CHANGE
Percent of Persons with a Given Racial Identification Who Share Additional Racial Identifications
United States, 2000
RACIAL AND HISPANIC CHANGE
Percent of Persons with a Given Racial Identification Who Share Additional Racial Identifications
United States, 2000
RACIAL AND HISPANIC CHANGE
Percent Multiracial Blacks by Size of Black Population in Each State, 2000
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 3,500,000
Total Number of Blacks in State
% o
f B
lac
ks
wh
o a
re M
ult
ira
cia
l
Source: Dow ell Myers, Race Contours 2000http://w w w .usc.edu/sppd/census2000
MississippiNew York
Texas
Florida
Georgia
Illinois
California
RACIAL AND HISPANIC CHANGE
The Multiracial BeltPercent Multiracial of County Population, California 2000
RACIAL AND HISPANIC CHANGE
AmericanIndian
The Overlap ProblemThe Overlap ProblemThe Overlap ProblemThe Overlap Problem
Black
Hispanicor
Latino
Overlap of Racial Categories and Hispanic Origin An Illustrative Example Using Only Three Categories
RACIAL AND HISPANIC CHANGE
Hispanicor
Latino
The Hispanic Overlap with Each Racial or Multiracial CategoryThe Hispanic Overlap with Each Racial or Multiracial CategoryThe Hispanic Overlap with Each Racial or Multiracial CategoryThe Hispanic Overlap with Each Racial or Multiracial Category
RACIAL AND HISPANIC CHANGE
% Hispanic of Each Race Category in California, 2000
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
All Multi-Race
Other
NHOPI
Asian
AIAN
Black
White
The Hispanic Overlap with Each Racial or Multiracial CategoryThe Hispanic Overlap with Each Racial or Multiracial CategoryThe Hispanic Overlap with Each Racial or Multiracial CategoryThe Hispanic Overlap with Each Racial or Multiracial Category
RACIAL AND HISPANIC CHANGE
% Hispanic of Multirace Categories in California, 2000
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Three or more Races
NHOPI & Other
Asian & Other
AIAN & Other
Black & Other
White & Other
Black & AIAN
White & Asian
White & AIAN
White & Black
Two Races
Policy Implications of Policy Implications of
Diversity in CitiesDiversity in Cities Racial Diversity
-- becoming the norm for local governments
Relative Size of Groups is Unstable -- rapid changes in many cities
Mismatch of Voters and….-- total population-- school children
Diverse Standards for Diverse Residents?
RACIAL AND HISPANIC CHANGE
2-way cities have at least 30% population intwo different race groups
3-way cities have at least 15% population inthree different race groups
4-way cities have at least 10% population infour different race groups
Defining Multiethnic Cities:Defining Multiethnic Cities:
RACIAL AND HISPANIC CHANGE
Los Angeles County
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1980 1990 2000
4-way
3-way
2-way
Orange County
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1980 1990 2000
4-way
3-way
2-way
RACIAL AND HISPANIC CHANGE
The Number of Balanced Multiethnic CitiesThe Number of Balanced Multiethnic CitiesIn Counties of Southern CaliforniaIn Counties of Southern California
1980-2000
RACIAL AND HISPANIC CHANGE
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
1980
1990
2000
NH White
NH Black
Asian PI
Latino
CarsonCarson
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
1980
1990
2000
NH White
NH Black
Asian PI
Latino
Monterey ParkMonterey Park
RACIAL AND HISPANIC CHANGE
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
1980
1990
2000
NH White
NH Black
Asian PI
Latino
AzusaAzusa
RACIAL AND HISPANIC CHANGE
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
1980
1990
2000
NH White
NH Black
Asian PI
Latino
Los Angeles CityLos Angeles City
RACIAL AND HISPANIC CHANGE
Racial Composition of Total Population and of Each Age GroupRacial Composition of Total Population and of Each Age GroupRacial Composition of Total Population and of Each Age GroupRacial Composition of Total Population and of Each Age Group
Compton, CA, 1960-1990Compton, CA, 1960-1990
Total
0
20
40
60
80
100
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70Total0
20
40
60
80
100
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70Total
Total
Latino
Black
White/ Other
1960 1970
19901980
0
20
40
60
80
100
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 700
20
40
60
80
100
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
RACIAL AND HISPANIC CHANGE
Composition of Likely Voters in CaliforniaWhy White Voters Continue to DominateWhy White Voters Continue to DominateWhy White Voters Continue to DominateWhy White Voters Continue to Dominate
TotalPopulationa Age 18+b 18+ Citizenb
Likely voters in Nov. 2000c
Non-Hispanic White 50.3%
All Others 49.7%
TOTAL 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
54.6%
45.4%
65.0%
35.0%
71.0%
29.0%
Source:
a2000 California Department of Finance projection
b1990 Census Rates applied to 2000 population projection
cBased on voting rates in "Voting and Registration in the Election of November 1998,"
Current Population Report P20-523, Table 3, Pacific Division of West Region.
U.S. Census Bureau.
RACIAL AND HISPANIC CHANGE
DILEMMAS OF POPULATION CHANGEDILEMMAS OF POPULATION CHANGEDILEMMAS OF POPULATION CHANGEDILEMMAS OF POPULATION CHANGE
Today’s residents versus tomorrow’s
Which residents today can speak about needs for tomorrow?
RACIAL AND HISPANIC CHANGE
Change in composition Different average characteristics
Change in membership Turnover of residents