the big five it mega trends
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The Big Five IT Mega Trends - talk @ Filene Research Institute at Kansas City for executives and technology leaders of US and CA Federal Credit Unions and keynote @MEDES 1) Mobile 2) Big data - data doubles every 18 month - the information age economy will create value by sense making form data 3) Social Media 4) Cloud 5) ConsumerizationTRANSCRIPT
CONFIDENTIAL
MEDES November 2011
Paul Hofmann, PhD (@paul_hofmann)Vice President Research at SAP Labs, Palo Alto
The Big Five IT Mega Trends
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About SAPWe Help Organisations Do What They Do...Better
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EVERY 2ND DOLLAR OF WORLD TRADE RUNS ON SAP
Suppliers andCustomers
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CUSTOMS/REGULATORY AGENCY
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Truly GlobalQuick Facts
175,000customers
1,200+partners
53,000employees
$ 17 BRevenue
120countries
25industries
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© SAP 2008 / Page 5
What Does SAP Do?
Sales Order Management
Production Planning Talent Management
Financial Management Accounting
Business Intelligence
The Big Five Mega Trends
Mobile – Pervasive Connectivity Empowers The World
5.5 B cell phones worldwide (78%) - 1.4 B sold in 2010 vs.15 B shoes
Big Data – Data Growth Follows Moore’s Law
2020 all data will be 35 Zetabyte 1) (1021 Byte) Stack of DVDs halfway to Mars
Social Media – Capturing the Social Fabric
98% of US online adults between 18 and 24 use social media 2)
Cloud Computing – The Oil of the Information Age
Consumerization – IT for the People
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Mobile Phone – Empowering The World
85% of world’s population has wireless coverage vs. 80% electrical grid
Smartphones Surpassed Feature Phone Shipments Europe (Q2:10) USA (Q1:11)
Smartphones + Tablets outshipped PCs in Q4:10
In 3 Years, China added more Internet users than exist in USA
MISR Image of Central Amazon
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No More Marketing Without Mobile
If your plans don’t include mobile, then your plans are not finishedWendy Clark, SVP, Integrated Marketing, Coca-ColaIAB Annual Leadership Meeting 2011
Mobile ad revenues are projected to be $6.6 B by 2016 4)
$20 B opportunity for mobile and internet advertising 5)
assuming internet and mobile ad spend become equal to time spent
~90 M US people own smartphones Smart Advertising
Almost every day users of mobile social media +70% growing faster than category
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Mobile Phone
No More Brick And Mortar Banks Mobile banking in SA has almost doubled to 44% up from 27% in 1 year 12% are sending money from phone to phone M-PESA (mobile pesa=money)* branchless banking service in Kenya Over 10 M people or 50% of the adult population use M-PESA 200 M+ farmers in India receive government payments via mobile
Mobile minutes are currency in Africa and Asia Facebook moves ~ $2 B of virtual game money
*M-PESA is a joint venture between Vodafone and Safaricom
Big Data
Data Growth Follows Moore’s Law – Doubles Every 18 Month 1.2 million Petabyte in data have been created 2010 up from 160 Exabyte in 2007 1) 40% growth in global data generated per year vs. 5% growth in global IT spending 2) 30 billion pieces of content shared on Facebook every month 2)
The Information Age Economy Creates Value From Data Old economy – BASF, Dow, DuPont, Ford, GM, GE 100k to 200k employees New economy – EMC, HP, MSFT, Oracle, SAP 50k to 100k employees Information age economy - Facebook, Twitter, Groupon 5k to 20k employees
Big Data
Software Will Eat The WorldMachines will talk to each other – Internet of ThingsAutomation of Information Gathering and Processing
AI Could Replace 50 M Professional Jobs ~ 40% of employmentMartin Ford in The Lights in the Tunnel: Automation, Accelerating Technology and the Economy of the Future
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Social Media
3rd LargestIf Facebook were a country it would be the 3rd largest
72% of internet users are active on
at least 1 networking site
Social > InternetSocial Networkers (11/2011) exceed
Internet Users (12/2006)
http://socialmediatoday.com/soravjain/237864/fascinating-social-media-facts-year-2010
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What Does This Mean For BusinessViral Impact Brings Risk & Opportunity
Message Control To Message Transparency
From ”Talking At” To ”Talking With”
From ”Controlled Distribution” To ”Viral Distribution”
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Consumer Innovation 3)
Instead of asking them to watch, to listen, to play, to passively consume, the race is on to get them to create, to produce and
to participate trendwatching.com
Our kids will have to create their own jobs instead of finding one
START UP OF YOU
For Example - http://quid.com/ maps the world’s technologiesIt will help us to find our START-UP
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Peer Production - Yochai Benkler Harvard
Linux, Wikipedia
Slashdot, a news and announcements website
Distributed Proofreaders, which proof reads public domain texts for publication on Project Gutenberg
Kuro5hin, a discussion site for technology and culture
Clickworkers, a citizen science program
Sourceforge, a software development organization
RepRap Project, a project to create an open-source self-copying 3D printer.
Pirate Bay, a shared index of bittorrents
OpenStreetMap, a free map of the world
SENSORICA.co, an open, decentralized, and self-organizing network dedicated to high tech open innovation
Shanzhai
Free Spirits in the MountainsGrassroots creativity or a violation of intellectual property ?
Shanzhai Nokia N9 7 operating systems interfaces
Meego, iOS 5.0, HTC Sense, Windows Phone 7, BlackBerry, Smasung’s TouchWiz and Symbian Anna
Looks like a smartphone with games and basic features
It is a semi-smartphone that looks like a smartphone but doesn’t have the full features
Some things have to be believed to be seen
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References
1) 2011 IDC Digital Universe Study
2) McKinsey Big Data Report
AI could replace as many as 50 million professional jobs Martin Ford 2011
3) The Age of the Consumer InnovatorEric von Hippel et al.MIT Sloan Management Review, Fall 2011, Vol 53, No 1, 27 – 35
4) comScore, mobile advertising spend is projected to hit $2.5 billion by 2014, with $2.7 billion projected in mobile ad revenues for this year and $6.6 billion by 2016.
5) $20B opportunity calculated assuming Internet $ Mobile ad spend equal to time spent & share equals their respective time spent share eMarketer 3/11
Electronic valet start up, VenmoMerchant payment start up, SquareZipppay startup, a combination of Venmo and Square
Have a look my blog; The Future of Analytics
Thank You
Twitter: @paul_hofmannEmail: [email protected] Homepage: www.paulhofmann.net Blog: www.paulhofmann.net/blogSlide Share: www.slideshare.com/paulhofmannLinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/in/hofmannpaul
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