mega & micro technology trends
DESCRIPTION
Technologies just around the corner that will change everythingTRANSCRIPT
Peter Cochrane
COCHRANE a s s o c i a t e s
www.ca-global.org
Futurology… …Mega & micro trends!
What do futurologists do?Extrapolate trendsInterpolate between technologiesProject into the future……..Read and travel a lotVisit R&D labs and UniversitiesWork with leading companies……..Read SciFi & watch moviesTalk to each other……..
Guess……..And this one is a business angel & was a VC for over 6 years
For sure a crystal ball is not enough… …we can’t predict the future
…but we can build it!
5 year future - all of the technology is in the lab now - we just have to look for it
10 year future - a lot of the technology is in the lab right now - but some isn’t
20 year future - we are more or less blind!
What we know…
• Technology• Connectivity• Complexity• Networking• Non-linearity & Chaos
Megatrends?An acceleration of:
Leading to far more:
• Creativity• Content• Decentralization
• Instrumentation• Control• Machines• People
Microtrends?Chips get into everything:
People, machine and things get:
• Connected• Collaborative• Creative• Ultra-productive
• Things we cannot make
• Things we cannot see
• Things we cannot touch
• They do things we cannot, or do not wish, to do!
Machines build more machines:
Biggest Megatrend?
Disruptive forces impacting people… …companies & countries
Digitization of everything
Explosion of networked connectivity
Devices are getting much smarter
Disruptive forces impacting people… …companies & countries
Digitization of everything
Explosion of networked connectivity
Devices are getting much smarter
Positioning systems >> Communications
SensorNets >> All Nets
PodCasting >> TV & Radio
HomeCare >> Hospital Care
Home Creativity >> Office Creativity
Robots >> People
Machine Decisions >> People Decisions
We will become a part of the network….
BIG predictions…
-Decoding the genome-Decoding the protein stack-Emulating the human body
-Modelling the environment-Modelling society
-Nuclear fusion control-Room temperature fission
We now face/have problems that only massive computing power can solve!
Moore’s Wall
ThermionicTube
Transistor
IC1
IC2
IC3
IC4
IC5
ICn
1915 46 59 2010 2025
3D ICsMolecularQuantumGeneticBiologicalOptical Computing
NewSensorsNetworksSoftwareLifeformsIntelligences
Log Scale
A future of man, woman & machine...
1940 20101950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
0.111010101010
101010101010
10101010
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
10
9
11
12
13
15
17
1000xVacuum tubes Transistors
Integrated circuitsMicro-processors
Relays
UNIVAC ScalarENIAC
IBM 704
Stretch
LARC
CDC1604
CDC 6600
CDC 7600
ILLIAC IVCray -2
Cray C-90
Cray-1Cray X-MP
Cray Y-MP
CM-2Delta
CM-5
TeraflopHuman Brain
zone
100,000Teraflopdesktop
SUPERCOMPUTERS
Vector
Multiprocessors
Massively parallel
FLOPS
Human Zone?
Internet (Web 2.0/3.0) Zone?
Social networking for machines will promote a rapid rise in cloud computing...
What waspossible What is
likely
BOINCSETI et al
Internet ~ Human Brain Today!
> 109 Nodes & > 104 Links/Node
2006 Internet ~ 1 Human Brain
2012 Internet ~ 1,000 Human Brains
2018 Internet ~ 1,000,000 Human Brains
2024 Internet ~ 1,000,000,000 Human Brains
2034 Internet ~ 1,000,000,000,000, Human Brains
But exponential growth takes over…
So is it game over around 2030??
How smart are our machine right now?
How smart are our machine right now?
Big opportunities…
Energy generationis not an issue – weare spoilt for choice
…but going totally green is another matter!
There are a lot ofpotential long shots
…but if they workthey will transformthe planet!
Energy transmissionis not an issue ….
there are super cooled conductor studies & programs but I wouldn’t bother…
…any move from AC to DC will be very interesting!
Energy storage is a big deal & a very big opportunity
…there are no really good solutions out there right now…
Electrolysis and hydrogen generation for transport seems obvious…but single issue thinking has taken over!
Smart appliances, in homes and offices
…this is all about coping with peak-to-mean demand by dynamically adjusting demand
…flattening the curve!
Where does theenergy go…
…and where does the pollution come from?
CO2 isn’t the biggest deal – methane is!
Any significant advance in personal transport will require…
…a raft of technologies based on advanced materials!
Food Production
Current State-of-the-Art Agricultural Food Factory
High value/quality greenhouse tomato $170M annual sales 200M lbs tomatoes per year 600,000 lbs per day [every day!] 320 acres 1200 employees
Glass covered structures = natural ventilation - evaporative cooling, and heating - CO2 enrichment with natural gas - computerized environmental control. (40acre, below)
Food Factory
Computer controlIntensive plant monitoringReal-Time Data for decision supportEnergy conservationAlternative energyLabor managementMarket developmentResource recyclingOptimizing plant environment
The final frontier goes commercial
And comes within the reach of the many?
And there are a lot of things we would like to get into or manufacture in space!
The space elevator…
…looks morefeasible year-on-year!
Much of our future depends on advances in nano-materials & structures!
Everything we have done before in the macro and micro we are attempting in the nano!
And process control has improved to the point models and designs are being realized!
Commercial products are on the market!
Ceramic +fibre mix
Fibre only
Filters of a quality& performance
never seen before
Nano-machines are getting real!
Nano –sensors and a lab on a chip!
Will impact every industry from food & farming thro aerospace, automotive andhealthcare…
…instant sensing and diagnosis for mankind and machine alike!
3D printing with reusable polymers mayrevolutionize the design, production, delivery, use and support cycle
But the merging of biology & technologyis where the fun really starts:
Gnome > Protein Stack > Life Models and Simulation > try itbefore you build or synthesise!
Where is the € ??
Some more important technologies we didn’t have time to cover
We now live in a world of the infinite…
… how do you find and how do you choose?
…the hybrid solutions .…combining man and machine
VR, AR, robotic aided surgery/medicine
No people involved!
The progress in and implications of… …artificially manufactured life forms?
Life doesn’t need light or oxygen, and most likely it doesn’t have to be carbon based – this is the recently discovered ‘Candidatus Desulforudis that lives in a gold mine and takes its energy from uranium and radioactive decay!
We are rolling out intelligent sensors!And our machines will see, hear, smell….…detect and communicate in a way and
at a rate we cannot!
Implants for human repair & enhancement …
Bar Code RFID
RFID revolutionizing the supply and support chain, especially when linked to tracking…
In the field of healthcare RFID save lives, increases efficiency and reduces costs… prevents digital deaths
Average truck fill in the UK ~17%
Things sometimes go abit wrong!
Badly wrong!
>10,000 Containersper yearpushed overboardin stormy weather…
…or lost atsea by somemechanism
In the next phase RFID + GPS +AI takes over….
…and > $2T may be saved!
We now live in a world of the infinitely complex…
… how do you solve problems & make decisions?
Everything in the universe is governed by non-linearity and chaotic actions….
…but we are linear and limited thinkers devoidof tools & techniques tohelp us comprehend…
If we have a long-term future it lies with our technology and machines and their ability to extend our knowledge & understanding
66There are no silver bullets!
Hypothesis
The combined intelligence ofall humanity isalso insufficient
Hypothesis
The combined intelligence ofall humanity isalso insufficient
Our only hope isthe combinedintelligence
of our machines
A world of opportunity & risk….
Thank you,
cochrane.org.uk ca-global.org
COCHRANE a s s o c i a t e s