The ArcticNet IRIS 1 Regional Impact Assessment: A tool to bridge science and policy in the Western

and Central Canadian Arctic

G.A. Stern1,2, A. Gaden1

1University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Canada 2Freshwater Institute, Winnipeg, Canada

Session 2.3.6 Linking Science and Policy Towards Environmentally Sustainable Development

IRIS = Integrated Regional Impact Study

An IRIS combines and summarizes all available knowledge of a region affected by change.

This knowledge is used to produce a prognosis of the magnitude and socio-economic impacts and benefits of change.

e.g. Studies undertaken by ArcticNet scientists, Inuit organizations, government agencies and other stakeholders all contribute towards developing climate change knowledge.

e.g. ArcticNet undergoes a consultative process with stakeholders to develop a climate change regional impact assessment based on both documented and projected (modelled) changes.

An IRIS helps to facilitate better accessibility of knowledge

IRIS 1: Gary Stern (DFO, U of M)

IRIS 3: David Barber (U of M)

IRIS 2: Trevor Bell (Memorial University, Newfoundland)

IRIS 4: Michel Allard (Université Laval)

IRIS Leaders

The IRIS process: towards making knowledge useable for all

Consultation at every step

(with IRIS steering

committees and other stakeholders)

3. Identify linkages between environmental change and health/societal impacts

2. Document past and present changes in climate and in different components of the regional environment

1.Identify regional environmental, health and societal vulnerabilities

4. Downscale General Circulation Models to Regional Climate Models (RCMs)

5. Use scenarios by RCMs to provide

insights into future environmental, health,

& societal vulnerabilities

6. Analyse the prognosis with stakeholders and

start over

The IRIS process – towards developing a regional impact assessment

The Regional Impact Assessments (RIAs)

• The goal of the assessments is to make knowledge

understandable and available to everyone, but particularly for resource managers, decision makers at all political levels, and other stakeholders.

• The RIAs aim to provide policy and research recommendations for climate change adaptation planning and sustainable development.

• 1) Steering Committee established (2010): Members sit on regional and national/international Inuit organizations. Meetings

are conducted on an as-needed basis with Gary and Ashley (~3-4 times per year) • Committee members guide the development of the RIAs to ensure the topics are

relevant to the regions. Typically committee members will have had experience with policy issues and policy development.

• Once the science chapters are written, the IRIS steering committees work with the lead authors to help formulate policy and research recommendations from the

scientific prognosis.

What has been done towards the IRIS 1 RIA so far?

• 2) Feedback for assessment gathered: • IRIS 1 workshop: held April 11-17, 2011 in Inuvik

– Part science forum, part workshop – Over 100 people in attendance representing 28 organizations – Participants addressed regional climate change priorities that should be included in the

IRIS 1 RIA

• Climate change impacts and priorities in both the Kitikmeot and ISR were

researched from the literature

Stephanie Powell-Hellyer (UNBC)

3) Outline developed for RIA (May-August 2011): The outline is based on feedback from the workshop and literature and was approved by the IRIS 1 steering committee members. The outline is divided into 4 parts:

Part 1: Overview of IRIS 1 sets the stage for the rest of the assessment (e.g. Socio-economies in the Kitikmeot and ISR) written with regional contribution Part 2: Climate variability and projections analysis of past and recent climate trends climate projections to year 2050 Part 3: Priority issues of adaptation (7 supporting scientific chapters) Part 4: Factors of Adaptation – Synthesis of Findings

Part 3: 7 supporting scientific chapters: Chapter 1: Terrestrial and Freshwater Systems Chapter 2: Impacts on Marine Ecosystems Chapter 3: Human Health Chapter 4: Safety in Navigation and Transportation Chapter 5: Impacts to Infrastructure Chapter 6: Food and Cultural Security Chapter 7: Resource Development

Example : Transportation infrastructure Questions to be addressed: To what degree will melting sea ice affect ice roads in the future? To what extent will

this increase water-based transportation opportunities? Will harbours or ports need to be relocated in light of coastal erosion and instability?

What new technologies or materials might be needed to address future infrastructure needs?

Chapter 5: Impacts to Infrastructure

Ice road linking Inuvik, NT with Tuktoyaktuk and Aklavik, NT (March 2011)

Example : Mineral exploration and extraction

Questions to be addressed: How extensive will permafrost

melt and potential slumping be in the region? What is the viability of mines in these scenarios?

What adaptation measures can

Inuit organizations and land-claim/territorial government agencies undertake in anticipation of increased economic development and associated stresses upon social life and culture?

Chapter 7: Resource Development

Lupin gold mine in Nunavut (www.novusgold.com) Operational from 1982-2003 and 2004-2005

Example : Hydrocarbon activities Questions to be addressed: What are the gaps and challenges related to hydrocarbon development in the

Beaufort Sea? What are the impacts of hydrocarbon development (and other marine traffic) on

bowhead and beluga whales, two important country foods in the Beaufort Sea?

Chapter 7: Resource Development (continued)

Exxon Valdex oil spill, Alaska (1989) (www.guardian.co.uk)

Where we’re at now: The Writing Process

Lead authors and writing teams were contacted and assembled in the fall, 2011 A first draft of the RIA was prepared for the IPY-Montreal conference. This was reviewed at the steering committee meeting with lead authors on April 22, 2011. Climate projections will be incorporated into the second draft. The final version is scheduled for publication in 2013.