The Arctic Synthesis Collaboratory:An Integrated Community-based

Research Network

THE ARCTIC FORUM

15 May 2008

Charles J. Vörösmarty, Arctic Collaboratory Planning Committeeand ARCSS Committee

New Approaches to Linking Scientific Synthesis, Policy,

and Education

New Demands on Arctic Science

•US Policy on Climate Change

•Security Challenges

•Sea Level Rise

•Infrastructure at Risk

•International Cooperation

•Economic Interests

•Public Need for Accurate Information

Fundamental Questions About Changing and Complex Arctic

System

Agent-based models

Science-driven sensor & technology development

Observation networks

Change detection

Computationally intensivelandscape models

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High resolution Earth System simulations

Complex Information Streams

0° 60° 120° 180° 240° 300° 360°

1960s

1970s

1980s

1990s

2000s

0° 60° 120° 180° 240° 300° 360°Longitude Longitude

Coverage or Quality

GoodPoor

Yea

r

Observations• Spatially/temporally patchy

• Quality: High to Low• Challenging to explain in aggregate

SYSTEMIC UNDERSTANDING

1900-60

Paleo

INDUCTIVE PATHSpecific to General

DEDUCTIVE PATH General to Specific

Modeled Outputs• Spatially/temporally contiguous

• Physically-consistent but incomplete• Gap-filling

SYNERGY BETWEEN OBSERVATIONS AND MODELED OUTPUTS

1960s

1970s

1980s

1990s

2000s

1900-60

Paleo

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100Year

Ice

Exte

nt

(milli

on

sq

-km

)

CCSM3 Model SimulationObservations

Model Drop1.8 million sq km, 2024–2025Observed Drop1.6 million sq km, 2006–2007

September Sea Ice Extent

ARCSS Move to Synthesis

•Improve understanding of the Arctic System, its role in the larger Earth system, and its response to change

•Identify innovations in S&T that advance system science

•Community-based, many perspectives

•Engage decision-makers and the public on the importance of these issues & “actionable” options

Arctic Synthesis Collaboratory

• Consensus recommendation from the community Building blocks from 2-3 yr process; formalized during the ARCSS

Data Discovery and Modeling Workshop (April 2007, Seattle)

• A collaboratory is a network-based facility and organizational entity that: Spans distance Supports rich and recurring human interaction oriented to

a common research area Fosters contact between researchers who are both known

and unknown to each other Provides access to data sources and tools required to

accomplish research tasks

(Adapted from Science of Collaboratories, University of Michigan)

Arctic Synthesis Collaboratory

Integrated Collaboratory Components:1. Collaborative “Meeting Grounds”2. Data and Modeling CI Support

Services3. Education, Outreach, and Policy4. Scientist Professional Development

To be further developed during a Summer ‘08 Arctic Synthesis Collaboratory Workshop

Loss of Arctic Sea Ice

Tipping Points Not Just the Lair of Arctic Science Plentiful, Complex, Global….and Interconnected

Schellnhuber & colleagues

From: Hall & O’Connell (2007), Proc. Inst. Civ.E., Original from IPCC

Evolution of GCMsinto ESMs

Policy and Decision Support ModelingEssential to Response and Adaptation

Well-Intended Ooops! • Decisions being made by non-scientists on an Earth system that includes biogeophysics and humans • Failure of ESS knowledge to be conveyed • A ‘learning moment’?? For us: forecast user needs

For the rest: no silver bullets & single-objective solutions may fail spectacularly

Google search on“food” & “biofuels”29 April 2008

Thank You!

Upcoming Collaboratory activities will be announced via the ARCSS Listserve and ArcticInfo (available through www.arcus.org)