The appliance of science – a policy perspective

NERC Ideation Workshop, 30 March 2015

David WarrilowHead of ScienceDECC

Questions, science and policy

“The important thing is not to stop questioning.

Curiosity has its own reason for existing.” Albert Einstein

“There does not exist a category of science to which one can give the name applied science. There are science and the applications of science, bound together as the fruit of the tree which bears it.”

Louis Pasteur

Policy challenge of rapid change

Total Population of the world by projection variantUN 2011

Source:Future Earth

Challenge of a changing climate

Is climate change happening?

Are humans responsible?

How will it change in the future?

How will that affect us?

IPCC WG1 5th Assessment Report 2013

Broad policy questions

What are the risks associated with climate and other environmental changes?

What are the causes?

How will these risks change in the future?

What are the strategic options to reduce these risks?

Can we deal with the problem at source (mitigation)?

Can we reduce the effects (adaptation)?

Who needs to act?

What are the costs?

What specific options need to be developed?

Are there side effects?

Who are the winners and losers?

How do we convince others to accept the need for change?

Does climate change cause extremes?

Is the extreme event we experience due to climate change?

Will extremes be worse in the future?

How can we adapt to reduce risks

Challenges of Adaptation

Prediction uncertainty UKCP09

UK Adaptation Programme (2013)

“A society which makes timely, far-sighted and well-informed decisionsto address the risks and opportunities posedby a changing climate”

Building the UK’s resilience to climate change is an economic, social and environmental challenge that cuts across every sector of society.

Climate Change and Energy

The Challenge of Mitigation.

11

UK Commitments to reduce GHG emissions (CCC)

Budget Carbon budget level

% reduction below base year

1st Carbon budget (2008-12) 3,018 MtCO2e 23%

2nd Carbon budget (2013-17) 2,782 MtCO2e 29%

3rd Carbon budget (2018-22) 2,544 MtCO2e 35% by 2020

4th Carbon budget (2023-27) 1,950 MtCO2e 50% by 2025

Long term aim: 80% reduction by 2050

Progress on budget

The carbon plan 2011

Sector options: • Power generation,• Industry • Transport, • Energy efficiency• Waste• Agriculture

Emissions Trading

2050 Calculator – analysing options

Excel Spreadsheet

Web ToolMy2050

Technical expert stakeholders

and policy-makers

Technical expert stakeholders

and well-informed public

Educational tool and initial

engagement for members of the

public

Product

Audience

Complexity

2050 Analysis

Excel Spreadsheet

Web ToolMy2050

Technical expert stakeholders

and policy-makers

Technical expert stakeholders

and well-informed public

Educational tool and initial

engagement for members of the

public

Product

Audience

Complexity

2050 Analysis

15

Innovation is essential

Need for a global agreement

“ Climate change is a fact. And when our children’s children look us in the eye and ask if we did all we could to leave them a safer, more stable world, with new sources of energy, I want us to be able to say yes, we did.” Barack Obama, US President, January 2014

“ Don’t get left behind. Don’t be on the losing side of history… Let us take advantage of the opportunities presented by climate action and lay the foundations for a more prosperous and secure future for all.” Ban Ki-moon, UN Secretary General, May 2014

Paris 2015 Securing our prosperity through a global climate change agreement

An alternative view…

Conclusions

Time of unprecedented change

Need to manage risks

Use opportunities to transform the way we do things

Complex interaction of policies and politics

Win the communications battle

Essential to innovate

International agreement is key

Time is short.