The academic workforce in Higher Education: Workforce

Futures

23 November 2009

Philip Bullock

Chair, Skills Australia

Overview

� Context - Now and tomorrow

� Connecting national goals - a workforce

development approach

� Planning for the future

� Managing uncertainty - ‘specialised’ occupations

� It’s not just skills, it’s whether they’re utilised

� Implications of a workforce development

strategy for higher education

� Where to next?

Skills Australia: focus on the future

Skills Australia will provide the Government with recommendations on current and future skills needs (and)

inform Australia’s workforce development needs … 1

Julia Gillard, Second Reading Speech, Skills Australia Bill 2008

� Professor Gerald Burke

� Sharan Burrow

� Dr Michael Keating AC

� Marie Persson

� Heather Ridout

� Keith Spence

Source:1 Julia Gillard, Second Reading Speech - Skills Australia Bill 2008 (14 Feb 2008)

Drivers of change

Culturally diverse / European influence

2000+ Beyond

SOCIAL

TECHNOLOGY

CLIMATE CHANGE

ECONOMY

DEMOGRAPHY

“Smart planet”“Flat world”

Central themeEmerging

Growth / GFCGlobal /

Asia dependent

POLITICALLight touch / Stable

Ageing pop / Asian influence

Intervention / Stable

“Me” “Community”

Connecting skills with key national goals

Productivity

Fair workplaces

Participation

High skills

How can we best ensure Australia has the workforce capability required for a

productive, sustainable and inclusive future?

Remember the 80:20 Rule

21%

79%

a lot of difficulty no or some difficulty, or n/a

68%

32%

a shortage of skilled workers

other reason

About one fifth of employers said

they had ‘a lot of difficulty’ in

recruiting staff … and 68% of these

organisations said industry-wide

skill shortages was the reason 1

Source:

1 NCVER, Survey of Employer Use and Views of the VET System (SEUV), 2005, from DEEWR, Skills in Use Labour Market and Workplace Trends in Skills Usage in Australia (2008)

Workforce development must address multiple dimensions

Enterprise

Skills Utilisation How are skills used?

ParticipationWho is the potential

workforce?

Individual

Industry

National

Workforce Futures

Towards an Australian Workforce Development Strategy

“Those policies and

practices which

support people to

participate effectively

in the workforce and to

develop and apply

skills in a workplace

context

and where learning

translates into positive

outcomes

for enterprises, the

wider community and

individuals throughout

their working lives.”

Increasing skills

What skills do we need?

Planning for the future …

Australian Workforce Development Strategy

Workforce and education

trends

Modelling and projections

Planning for an uncertain future

3 Scenarios(Shell Group)

Analysis historic data

Workforce Futures - Overview and background papers

Where are we headed?

Where do we want to be?How do we get there?

Access Economics

Consultation with industry, providers, states/territories and peak bodies

Possible futures: workforce growth to 2025Access Economics modelling

Projected total employment growth rates 1

Source:

1 Access Economics Pty Ltd for Skills Australia, Economic modelling of skills demand (Oct 2009)

Number of people in the

Australian workforce in 2025 (based on the three scenarios):

Open Doors: 15.3 million

Low-trust

globalisation: 13.7 million

Flags: 12.5 million

Qualifications supply and demandAccess Economics modelling

Projected student supply (including net migration) less projected labour market demand

-160

-140

-120

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

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20

14

20

15

20

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20

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20

18

20

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20

20

20

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20

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20

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20

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20

25

Open Doors Low-trust Globalisation Flags

‘000 qualifications

Supply and demandAccess Economics modelling

THE THREE SCENARIOS

Open Doors Low-trust Globalisation

Flags

By 2015 Demand 770 000 Demand 646 000 Demand 540 000

Supply 533 000 Supply 524 000 Supply 506 000

BALANCE -237 000 BALANCE -122 000 BALANCE - 34 000

By 2025 Demand 828 000 Demand 645 000 Demand 500 000

Supply 659 000 Supply 620 000 Supply 556 000

BALANCE -169 000 BALANCE -25 000 BALANCE +56 000

The projected supply of students less the projected labour

market demand 1

However, skilled migration plays a significant role in supplementing the

supply of qualifications, and if it remains at current levels, these

deficits may be made up through Australia’s skilled migrant intake.

Source:

1 Access Economics Pty Ltd for Skills Australia, Economic modelling of skills demand (Oct 2009)

Initial education becomes less relevant over time; 38% enter structured course every year

‘Matching’ skills and jobs in fluid labour

markets?

People may not seek

or find careers in their field of learning

Skills are more than qualifications

40% end up in jobs which match their VET study

45% workers change

jobs every three years

Importance of generic, cognitive and

interpersonal skills in a

service-based economy

A targeted approach for ‘specialised’occupations

� Long lead time – those skills which are highly specialised

and require extended learning and preparation time� 4 years or more for HE courses; 3 years or more to achieve VET

qualification

� High use – those skills which are deployed for the uses

intended (that is, there is a good occupational ‘fit’)� There is a more than 50% match between the training and the

destination occupation

� Significant disruption – where the opportunity cost of the

skills being in short supply is high (eg registered nurse or doctor)

� High information – where the quality of information about

the occupation is adequate

PROPOSED CRITERIA

What are we finding?

� All of the education professions

� Plumbers, glaziers, carpenters

� Social and welfare professions

� Electricians, electronics & telcon

trades

� All of the health professions

� Mechanical engineering trades

Examples of some of the 23 ‘specialised’occupational groups identified …

‘Digging deeper’ on those occupations

identified…

� Profile who, where, what, of workforce and student

body (occupational structure, industry spread)

� Dynamics where are there issues? (who enters

education and industry, who leaves and why)

� Future needs industry advice on how job will

change; educational provider advice on the response

� Current action how effective are current strategies?

What more is needed?

But it’s not just about ‘the right’ skills: it’s whether they’re utilised

‘The ability to use

particular skills and

knowledge in the

production process, not

merely acquiring them,

is what really matters

for productivity and

income’Treasury: Perspectives on Australia’s productivity prospects, 2006

‘The ability to use

particular skills and

knowledge in the

production process, not

merely acquiring them,

is what really matters

for productivity and

income’Treasury: Perspectives on Australia’s productivity prospects, 2006

‘The fact that people at work are not given the opportunity to contribute to their full potential may well be the biggest skills and productivity crisis we face today' Society for Knowledge and Economics: Workplaces of the Future, 2009

‘The fact that people at work are not given the opportunity to contribute to their full potential may well be the biggest skills and productivity crisis we face today' Society for Knowledge and Economics: Workplaces of the Future, 2009

Evidence of skill under-use

People (numbers in ‘000 and %) with a non-school

qualification employed at a lower level 1

Paradoxes:

� 40% employers say workforce too skilled for

organisation’sneeds

� Employers still report

difficulty in recruiting

Source:

1 Skills Australia, Workforce Futures Background Paper Two (Oct 2009)

� > 1.5 million Australians under & unemployed

� > 1 million not in the workforce but want to work

� Labour force participation ranges from 61% to 73%

across states/territories, and the employment ‘gap’

between regions is widening

� Vulnerable groups face profound barriers, eg

Indigenous Australians (48% employment in 2006)

Workforce participation challenge

What’s new in this approach?

Implications for higher education

� Understanding & applying levers that can make a

difference to ready availability and uptake of skills

� For government:

� Factoring in targeted policy responses to specialised

occupations within a demand driven system (eg

sustain/grow/reduce supply?)

� Interventions at the institution level may not be sufficient (or

necessary?)

� How to effectively combine institutional responses with post

education/ industry/workplace incentives?

� For government & institutions:

� The role of compacts, performance funding, other

incentives/caps to leverage institutional responses

� Capacity/capability of academic workforce

� Effective teaching/learning responses

What does WFD mean for higher education?

� Increasing participation: intensive literacy/language

/numeracy; – collaborative pathways – regional - cluster models

� Skill utilisation: Revisiting institutional and faculty missions:

engagement and collaboration with industry, connecting to

workplaces, institutional & sectoral links

� Teaching and learning:

� Attracting and sustaining undergraduates (eg engineers)

� New models of delivery for ‘resistant’ (eg nursing)

occupations/emerging work trends in professions

� More work integrated learning (internships?)

� Maintaining professional relevance/currency; building industry

networks

� Cultivating 21st C higher level cognitive and technical skills –

across whole of career – not just at entry level

� Innovation: Connecting with industry/end–users; diffusing

research

Examples across Australia

Online tools for enterprises to assess training and/or workforce needs

Industry specific plans and resources

Research-industry partnerships

Job and training programs for unemployed

Business assistance programs

Where to next?

� Complete stakeholder consultations (Nov 2009)

� Publish findings and recommendations (early 2010)

� Some possible areas of focus …

� Overall skills/qualifications capacity (and role of

migration)

� ‘Whole of Governments” actionIt’s not just about training, eg ‘Keep Australia Working’

� Support for new jobs and new industries‘Green’ skills, technological changes

� Ongoing targeted focus on participationeg men of prime working age, Indigenous Australians

� Strengthened literacy and numeracy programsSpecial focus on existing workforce

� Underpinned by QUALITY providers

The academic workforce in Higher Education: Workforce

Futures

23 November 2009

Philip Bullock

Chair, Skills Australia