the 42nd election: a polling...» at the outset of the 42 nd election campaign, ndp in 1 st,...

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Copyright 2015. No reproduction without permission.

Presentation to the MRIA Forum on Public Opinion Po lls from the 2015 Federal Election

November 26, 2015www.ekos.com

The 42nd Election: A Polling RetrospectiveBy Frank Graves

Ottawa, Ontario

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Conclusions3.

Overview of the 2015 Election1.

Notes on Polling2.

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Methodology

» The Canadian IntelligentVoter Information System(CIVIS) is EKOS’ innovativepolling service

» Features include:

• Large sample sizes(130,000+ cases in 2015)

• Probability-basedsampling that covers theentire population

• Unique fusion of:

1. High Definition Interactive Voice Response (HD-IVRTM)

2. Live Computer Assisted Telephone Interviews (CATI)

3. EKOS’ unique hybrid online/phone panel, Probit (probability sampling)

• Dual-mode sampling (i.e., both cellphone and landline)

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0

10

20

30

40

Jan-12 Jun-12 Nov-12 Apr-13 Sep-13 Feb-14 Jul-14 Dec-14 May-15 Oct-15

Liberal Party Conservative Party NDP Green Party Bloc Québécois Other

Prologue:2011

Election 2015 Election

Apr. 14, 2013:Trudeau becomes LPC leader

Oct. 22, 2014:Parliament Hill shooting

Aug. 2, 2015:Writ dropped

Act I:Descent into progressive darkness

Act II:Crimson tide rising

Act III:Slow dance of the

promiscuous progressives

Act IV:Coming to public

judgement

May-11

A four-part play: the reinstatement of progressive Canada

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Prologue & Act I: Descent into progressive darkness

» The play begins on Election Night 2011 when Harper secures a majority

• Shocking in light of clear disconnect with values and interests of most

Canadians

• Fashioned from uneven turnout across generational lines

» A sense of buyer’s remorse was evident almost immediately as barometers

of trust, approval, and confidence in national direction plumbed new lows

0

10

20

30

40

May-11 Aug-11 Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13


March 24, 2012Mulcair becomes NDP leader

October 2, 2012Trudeau enters LPC leadership race

May 2, 201141st Canadian general election

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Act II: Crimson tide rising» A year after assuming power, Trudeau seemed to be on an

unstoppable path to victory

• In a poll one year out, the Liberals found themselves almost exactly

where they were on Election Night 2015

• Success forged from focus on middle class renewal and a more optimistic and progressive tone linked to appetite for change

0

10

20

30

40

Apr-13 Jun-13 Aug-13 Oct-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 Apr-14 Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct-14


November 5, 2013Duffy suspended

July 17, 2014Duffy formally charged

April 14, 2013Trudeau becomes LPC leader

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Act III: Slow dance of the promiscuous progressives» The shooting on the Hill reignited concerns with security and terror

• These concerns were shrewdly exploited by Harper

» As Harper began to rise, Trudeau began to sink

» Trudeau’s Liberals went from 12-point lead to third place in three-way contest

» Contrary positions on C-51 were linked to NDP rise and Liberal decline, particularly with university educated

» Notably, the NDP rise predates the Notley effect, which amplified it

0

10

20

30

40

Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15


May 5, 2015Alberta NDP wins majority government

March 26, 2015Liberals propose amendments to Bill C-51October 22, 2014

Parliament Hill shootings

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Act IV: Coming to public judgement

» At the outset of the 42nd election campaign, NDP in 1st,

Conservatives 2nd, Liberals 3rd

» Two critical events altered the course of the election:

1. Mulcair committed to balanced budget, Trudeau

took vividly different position

2. The image of the drowned Syrian child ignited a

broader contest about values; temporary boost to

Harper, but advantage shifted as Canadians reflected on which values should define Canada in

the future

» An important election about the economy morphed

into an historical election about values

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0

10

20

30

40

Aug 2 Aug 9 Aug 16 Aug 23 Aug 30 Sep 6 Sep 13 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 4 Oct 11 Oct 18


August 2, 2015Writ dropped

2015Election

September 2, 2015Alan Kurdi’s body found

August 27, 2015Trudeau proposes deficit spending

August 25, 2015Mulcair promises balanced budget

September 15, 2015Conservative Party announces plan to banniqabs at citizenship ceremonies

Act IV: Coming to public judgement

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Meaning of the 2015 Election

» Harper enjoyed high ground on niqab, but inferior

position on the broader values contest

» Election reflects public judgement rooted in the

growing normative tension between Harper and dominant societal values

» Also reflects rising discomfort with the withering of middle class progress and a rejection of minimal

government, austerity, and trickle-down economics

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42

24

23

23

11

17

12

11

45

57

63

64

Q.Which of the following choices best describes your ideal vision of Canada?

Insistence on adherence to Cdn values

Moral certainty

(1-3)

(1-3)

(1-3)

(1-3)

Defense

Minimal federal government

(5-7)

(5-7)

(5-7)

(5-7)

Accommodation, Tolerance, & Respect

Reason and evidence

Humanitarianism and development

Active federal government

Neither (4)

Neither (4)

Neither (4)

Neither (4)

BASE: Canadians; October 8-12, 2015 (n=1,124), MOE +/- 2.9%, 19 times out of 20

Preferred vision for Canada

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Other factors

» Engagement very high, which bolstered turnout

• Turnout advantage of 2011 was erased for the

Conservatives

» 2011 was about inertia, this election was about motion

• Major shifts throughout the campaign which continued to final days

» Final shifts reflected a public judgement that Justin

Trudeau represented best bet for achieving twodominant objectives:

1. To retire Mr. Harper

2. To install a clearly progressive government

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Critical ingredients of the late majority

» Quebec

» Younger voters and cellphone-only households

» Seniors’ defection from Conservatives

» New Canadians

» University educated

» Liberal ground game

» The polls

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14

15

14

3

9

16

5

6

8

1

2

2 1

1

2

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

Other

BASE: Canadians who voted in 2015; October 20-23, 2015, n=1,636, MOE +/- 2.4%, 19 times out of 20

26%

Q.Did you vote in the most recent federal election, either in an advance poll or on Election Day on Monday, October 19th?

[If Yes] How did you vote in this election?

Loyalists(those who made their choice BEFORE the campaign and stuck to it)

Promiscuous Voters(those who switched from an earlier choice)

One-Timers(those who made their choice DURING the campaign and stuck to it)

33%

42%

Note: Figures adjusted to exclude those who skipped the question(s)

Non

-sw

itche

rsS

witc

hers

TOTAL

Three-way division of voters

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Conclusions3.


Notes on Polling2.

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39.5

38.8

35.8

31.9

30.4

31.9

19.7

18.5

20.4

3.4

5.6

4.71

1

1

6.7 4.3

4.9


3-day roll-up

2015 Election Results

2-day roll-up

BASE: Canadians; October 16-18, 2015, n=2,122, MOE +/- 2.1%, 19 times out of 20

BASE: Canadians; October 17-18, 2015, n=1,260, MOE +/- 2.8%, 19 times out of 20

Q. Thinking about the upcoming federal election on October 19th, have you already voted either at an advance poll or by special ballot?


[If No] How do you plan to vote in the upcoming federal election on October 19th?

Impact of final Liberal surge

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38.8

44.3

35.2

30.4

29.6

30.9

18.5

15.7

20.3

6.7

5.8

7.2

4

3

5

1

1

1


HD-IVR™

Live CATI

Impact of interview mode (final 2 -day roll-up)

BASE: Canadians; October 17-18, 2015

n=1,260, MOE +/- 2.8%, 19 times out of 20

n=896, MOE +/- 3.3%, 19 times out of 20

Q. Thinking about the upcoming federal election on October 19th, have you already voted either at an advance poll or by special ballot?


[If No] How do you plan to vote in the upcoming federal election on October 19th?

Note: Figures adjusted to exclude undecided voters, those not eligible to vote, and those who skipped the question.

Mergedn=364, MOE +/- 5.1%, 19 times out of 20

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35.4

31.4

31.1

38.4

21.4

20.6

7.3

5.8

3

2

2

2


Version 1

Version 2

Impact of ballot question

Note: Figures adjusted to exclude undecided voters, those not eligible to vote, and those who skipped the question.

Q. If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?

Q. If a federal election were held tomorrow, please tell me what your first and second preferences would be in your riding.


n=639, MOE +/- 3.9%, 19 times out of 20

n=589, MOE +/- 4.0%, 19 times out of 20

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35.1

42.5

35.8

36.8

20.9

31.9

17.9

23.8

20.4

4.3

9.2

5.6

5

3

5

1

1

1


Overall

Cellphone-only households

Impact of cellphones


n=1,356, MOE +/- 2.7%, 19 times out of 20

n=2,122, MOE +/- 2.1%, 19 times out of 20

Households w/ both a cellphone & landlinen=256, MOE +/- 6.1%, 19 times out of 20

» In 2011, sampling CPO

increased our prediction error

» In 2015, omitting CPO would

have produced an even more

significant error

» If we had had a larger sample of CPOs, we would have been

somewhat closer

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Conclusions3.


Notes on Polling2.

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Likely voter models

» The idea that there is some kind of likely voter model

that will work consistently across elections is something of a chimera; there is no unified theory of voter turnout

» The need for likely voter diminishes as turnout increases

» The dynamics of turnout were dramatically different in this election than in last election and this problem will

afflict any turnout models

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Seat projections

» EKOS most accurate of all main seat projections

» Discrepancies are almost entirely due to highly unusual

late shift

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1016

4454

99116

184151

2015 Election ResultsEKOS Projection(October 19, 2015)

Party

Accuracy = 82%Correct: 276 Incorrect: 62

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Conclusions (i)

» In some respects, capturing the election result is less

important than accurately revealing the state of voter intention earlier

» The real impact of polls reported the night before the election is probably modest (and we’ll know the right

answer less than 24 hours later)

» As the polls did influence late shifting, it’s actually more

important to be providing voters with valid data in the final stages rather than what’s going to happen on

Election Day

» For the first time, we see clear evidence of the polls at a

macro level influencing voter behaviour

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35

42

44

60

72

62

58

55

40

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0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

No impact (1) At least some impact (2-5)

Q. To what extent did public opinion polls affect your final decision on Election Day?

Before the election campaign

After the leaders’ debate

In the last week of the election campaign

On Election Day or at the ballot booth

Before the leaders’ debate

BASE: Those who followed the polls; October 20-23, 2015, n=1,327, MOE +/- 2.7%, 19 times out of 20

Impact of political polls

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Conclusions (ii)

» This means there is a co-agency and slippage across

subject matter and the process of scientific observation

» If polling is to be instrumental in shaping voter behaviour, it is critical that voters have access to

reliable and valid estimates in the final stages, not just

the final day

» We would posit that the campaign did not begin in a

tie, that the Conservatives clearly led for a considerable period, and that the majority was only clear in the final

weekend

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New yardsticks for polling?

» A fairer yardstick would include nearness of one’s final poll to the election,

but also other factors:

• Did the polling show the major shifts in the electorate over the

campaign and why they occurred?

• Did the polling accurately identify the forces at work and the range of

options that might occur on Election Day?

• How accurate was the late (but not final) polling?

• What is the level of transparency and disclosure?

• What are the quality of the indicators used to diagnose and track the

election?

• What was the total number of observations drawn to allow more

accurate estimates of the above?

• Did the polls use accepted methods for achieving scientific

accuracy?1

• Did the pollsters conduct an immediate post-election survey to assess

what happened?

1. American Association for Public Opinion Research, “Report of the AAPOR Task Force on Non-Probability Sampling”, June 2013. Available online at: https://goo.gl/VHHyPy

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Frank Graves

EKOS Research Associates

[email protected]

(613) 235-7215

www.ekos.com

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