The 2016 EU Agricultural Outlook

Conference

MEAT

Brussels, 6-7 December

2

Outlook for EU meat markets

DOMESTIC DEMAND

INTERNATIONAL DEMAND

EU SUPPLY

3

Changes in per capita meat consumption

USA

Canada

Japan

Argentina

China

EU-15

EU-N13

-0,2

0,0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1,0

1,2

-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

EU-15: stable

EU-N13: up

Total demand: +0.1% / year

Absolute change between 2026 and average 2014-16 (kg)

Yearly g

row

th r

ate

(%

, 2016-2

026)

Source: DG Agriculture and Rural Development (final baseline), based on OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2016-2025

4

Meat types in EU consumer basket (kg/capita)

EU-N13 EU-15

Note: consumption in retail weight

32.4 32.8 31.6 31.2

18.1 18.8 23.2 23.9

13.8 13.812.7 11.8

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1996 2006 2016 2026

Pork Poultry Beef/veal Sheep/goat

32.0 32.9 32.9 34.5

13.020.0

25.2 26.17.6

5.74.0 3.7

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1996 2006 2016 2026

Pork Poultry Beef/veal Sheep/goat

5

MENA

MENA

SSA

SSA

CHN

CHN

O. Asia

O. Asia

O. Asia

Other

Other

Other

-0,5

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

Poultry Pig Beef Sheep

Steady growth in world meat consumption

Main drivers:

• population and income growth

• convenience and price

• religious guidelines

• social and environmental concerns, …

Change in world imports of meat products and live animals 2026 vs. 2016 (million tonnes carcass weight)

Source: DG Agriculture and Rural Development (final baseline), based on OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2016-2025

Other: rest of the world; O.Asia: Asian countries other than China; CHN: China,

MENA: Middle East and Nord Africa, SSA: sub-Saharan Africa

Outlook:

• +1.3% per year in world consumption

• +2.0% per year in world imports

6

Growing EU demand

Exports of wings, legs and offal; competing world market

Decline in EU demand

Decrease in cow herd

Decline in demand from Mediterranean region

Niche export markets

Slight increase in EU demand

Environmental concerns

China effect will disappear

Slight increase in EU demand

Lack of competitiveness

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

Poultry

meat

Beef & veal Pigmeat Sheep &

goat meat

Gross production Exports

Changes in EU production and exports (2026 vs 2016, '000 t)

-7.5%

1%

2.4%

Note: the production of beef&veal and sheep&goat includes the net trade of live animals.

5%

-14%

14.5%

3%

-19%

7

EU production goes to EU market

Beef: 7.5 million t

exports

domestic94 %

7

Pigmeat: 24 million t

88 %

Poultry: 15 million t

89%

Sheep&goat: 1 million t

95 %

8

Environmental aspects of EU meat production

Source: JRC, 2016 CAPRI baseline

Total GHG emissions from meat in 2025 vs. 2008 (million t CO2-eq.)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Beef&veal Sheep&goatmeat

Pigmeat Poultry meat

2008 2025

9

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

Note: price projections in nominal terms

World beef prices (EUR/t)

EU

US

BRA FOB

Source: DG Agriculture and Rural Development (final baseline) and OECD-FAO Outlook 2016-2025

Main drivers:

• EU dairy market

• EU consumption

• World market price

10

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2400

2600

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

Note: price projections in nominal terms

World pigmeat prices (EUR/t)

US

Source: DG Agricultue and Rural Development (final baseline) and OECD-FAO Outlook 2016-2025

EU

BR (FOB)

Main drivers:

• EU sow herd

• EU consumption

• World pork price

11

Take away messages

11

Meat consumption: EU-15= stable; EU-N13= catching up

Different pattern by meat type

Increasing world meat demand, especially for poultry and beef

Minor increase in EU meat production (200 000 tonnes by 2026, compared to high 2016 level)

88-95% of production to EU consumer

12

EU prospects report and data available at:

http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/markets-and-prices/medium-term-outlook/index_en.htm

OECD-FAO Outlook at:

http://www.agri-outlook.org/

Short term outlook at:

http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/markets-and-prices/short-term-outlook/index_en.htm

Ecampa at:

https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/publication/eur-scientifeconomic-assessment-ghg-mitigation-policy-options-eu-agriculture-ecampa-2

Thanks