the 2010 election: three important questions? john curtice strathclyde university
TRANSCRIPT
The 2010 Election: Three Important Questions?
John CurticeStrathclyde University
Three Questions
• Are we (still) disengaged?• Where stands the Union – and the West
Lothian question?• What are the implications for the debate
about the electoral system?
Trends in Turnout
Trends in Civic Duty
The Loss of Trust
Did Expenses Matter?
Con Lab
Incumbent - Expenses +2.7 -6.1
- Not Expenses +4.5 -5.0
Non-incumbent - Expenses +1.4 -7.0
- Not Expenses +3.9 -7.4
Scotland Goes Its Own Way
Three Different Results!
England E, W & NI UK
Con 298 306 307
Lab 191 217 258
LD 43 46 57
Others 1 22 28
Con. Maj. 63 21 -19
Rise and Fall of the Two-Party Vote
Liberal Democrat Seats
The Decline of the Marginal Seat
Tory and Lab Britain Nudge Apart
2005 Result Swing from Lab to Con
Change in LD Vote
Con 1st/Lab 2nd +6.8 +3.3
Lab 1st/Con 2nd; Maj. < 10%
+6.1 +1.2
Lab 1st/Con 2nd; Maj. 10-20%
+5.1 -0.7
Lab 1st/Con 2nd; Maj. > 20%
+6.1 +1.2
The Anti-Tory Bias
Con Lab
Electorate 72,396 68,360
Turnout 68.4 61.3
=> Voters 49,474 41,857
Small Majorities 60 83
Vote in Third Party Seats
28.4 16.6
How The System Now (Doesn’t) Work
Con % Lead Con Lab LD Others
-2.8 239 326 59 26
0.0 255 307 61 27
4.0 282 281 59 28
7.2 307 258 57 28
11.2 328 232 62 28
Three Answers?
• There is still a problem of voter disengagement – the MPs expenses scandal may have negated the ‘closer’ election.
• The West Lothian question is likely to become more pressing – but Scotland will need attention too.
• Advocates of FPP are at risk of defending a system that no longer works.