so what happened to the electoral system in 2010? john curtice strathclyde university
TRANSCRIPT
So what happened to the electoral system in 2010?
John CurticeStrathclyde University
The (principal) case for FPP
• Provides for a system of alternating single party majority government
• That means that governments are clearly held accountable
• And that they are made and unmade by voters rather than via back room deals.
How FPP is supposed to deliver
• Discourages people from voting for third parties
• Does not give third parties seats• Gives the winner a clear ‘bonus’…• …irrespective of who that winner is
Rise and Fall of the Two-Party Vote
The Rise of ‘Others’
The LD Vote – a little less even
All Third Party Seats
How FPP delivers a winner’s bonus
• Plenty of seats are competitive between Conservative and Labour.
• So if there is a small ‘swing’ from one to the other, lots of seats change hands.
• So even if the largest party only has a small lead in votes over the second party, it still secures an overall majority.
The Decline in Marginal Seats
Long-Term Variation in ‘Swing’
South Midlands North Scotland Wales
1955-87 +8.9 +5.9 -8.6 -19.1 +0.6
1987-97 -2.6 -2.3 +1.9 +7.4 +2.0
1997-2005
+1.1 +1.1 -0.9 -4.7 +1.5
2005-10 +0.6 +2.1 -0.4 -7.6 +0.7
Potential Sources of Bias
• Unevenly sized constituencies– Differences in electorate size– Differences in turnout– (Differences in third party vote)
• More efficiently distributed vote– Win more seats by small majorities– (Waste more votes in third party seats)
Trends in Overall Bias
The Anti-Tory Bias
Con Lab
Electorate 72,345 68,612
Turnout 68.4 61.1
=> Voters 49,436 41,842
Small Majorities 60 81
Vote in Third Party Seats
28.4 16.6
How The System Now (Doesn’t) Work
Con % Lead (GB)
Con Lab LD Others
-2.7 239 326 59 26
0.0 255 306 61 28
4.1 282 281 59 28
7.3 307 258 57 28
11.2 327 233 62 28
How FPP no longer ‘works’
• No longer stops voters from supporting third parties
• Has become less effective at denying third parties representation
• Has become less effective at giving the winning party a ‘bonus’
• Is no longer even-handed in its treatment of the two largest parties
The Implications of the Constituencies Bill
• Will reduce but not eliminate the anti-Con bias– Boundaries will still be nearly 5 years out of date– Will not affect other sources of bias
• Unlikely significantly to change the range of results that produce a hung parliament
• Reduces accountability of MPs to constituents?