thayer china's rise, us re-engagement in southeast asia

8/7/2019 Thayer China's Rise, US re-engagement in Southeast Asia

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/thayer-chinas-rise-us-re-engagement-in-southeast-asia 1/28

China’s Rise, U.S. Re ‐ engagement

Professor Carl ThayerGeor e Mason Universit

March 22, 2011



Southeast Asia



Pre‐

colonial

era

China’s

System of

tributary

states



US ‘Hub and Spokes’ Model

apan

South

Korea

Phili ines



U.S. Pacific Command



‐



•

– Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore,

a an• ASEAN Treaty of Amity & Concord (TAC)• ASEAN Expands

– , ,

Myanmar (1997), Cambodia (1999)



“ ’ ”

• ASEAN and Dialogue Partners•

eg ona orum ,

• A EAN Pl Thr APT 1 7



• ,

• U.S.‐ ASEAN dialogue 1977+– Air pollution and climate change– International criminal activit– Trade not aid

• Priority to treaty allies (hub and spokes)

and Indonesia



•

– science and technology cooperation– economic and trade coo eration.

• 1996, China accorded official dialogue partner

status b ASEAN• 1997 ASEAN‐ China Joint Cooperation

Committee– coordinator for all the ASEAN‐ China mechanisms

at the working level



‐

•

– Framework Agreement on Comprehensive

Economic Coo eration between ASEAN and China• foundations for the China ‐ ASEAN Free Trade Area•

2010 developed ASEAN members• 2015 less developed ASEAN members

– Joint Declaration between China and ASEAN on

‐

• 1st ASEAN Ministerial Meeting on Transnational Crime Plus

China



•

• Actively promotes Confidence Building

– Hosted annual meeting of ARF Heads of Defense

Colleges

• 2000 China contributes to the ARF’s Annual Security Outlook

• Provides voluntary briefings on regional

security



‐

•

• Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea

(DOC)• Joint Working Group at senior official level (2004)

•

2003

China

accedes

to

the

ASEAN

Treaty

of

• 2003 ASEAN and China declare a Strategic

• new security dialogue initiated



’

•

of security to include political, defense,

• National Security Objective: Restore and

’

diplomatic influence• ew ecur ty oncept rst announc n

Beijing in March 1997



‘ ’

• ‘

of equality, dialogue, trust and cooperation, and a

new security order should be established to ensure

genuine mutual respect, mutual cooperation,

consensus through consultation and peaceful

se emen o spu es, ra er an u y ng,

confrontation, and imposition of one’s own will upon

’. .– Vice President Hu Jintao a speech delivered to the

Indonesian Council on World Affairs, Jakarkta, July 2000



• ’

Security Policy– Summit meetin of Chinese Ja anese and South

Korean leaders (1997)• Prime focus economic integration and

development of East Asian community minus

the United States• Focus on non ‐ traditional security issues such

as HA/DR



’

•‐

agreements negotiated with all ten members

‐ ,

• Broad areas of cooperation• One C ina Po icy• High ‐ level visits

– Heads of State/government– Foreign & Defence ministers



‘ ’

• China’s Good Neighbour Policy• na s peace u r se

• China’s peaceful development (2004)

• China’s policy of a harmonious world



Harmonious

World1. Multilateralism for

–new security concept

2. Cooperation for

common prosperity

3. Inclusiveness,

co‐

civilizations4. Reform of United

a ons o mee new

threats and

challengesPresident Hu Jintao, Speech to 60 th

Anniversary Summit of the United

, ,



•

– Global War on Terrorism– n erpr se or n a ve

•

2005 ‐ 08 Second Administration– Indian Ocean tsunami 2004– ASEAN‐ U.S. Enhanced Partnership Program– But Secretary of State Rice misses teo ARF

meetings



‐

• “

States is back in Asia”• Accession to the Treaty of Amity and

Cooperation (TAC)• U.S. Mission to ASEAN•

ecre ary o a e n on s ows up– Lower Mekong Basin initiative



st‐



•

multilateralism“

role in the region’s multilateral architecture,

Nations (ASEAN), the Asia Pacific Economic

Coo eration forum the Trans ‐ Pacific

Partnership, and the East Asia Summit.”



Malaysia

Vietnam



Tensions in US‐ China Relations



•

• 17 th ARF Meeting Secretary Clinton offers to

•

2nd

ASEAN‐

US

Leaders

Meeting

in

New

York

• 1st ASEAN Defence Ministers Meeting Plus

Eight Dialogue Partners• U.S. overturns China’s multilateral table



• ’ . .

– Anti access/area denial in Western Pacific• South China Sea focal point• Will U.S. remain en a ed or retreat?• ASEAN’s centrality• New security architecture – East Asia

Summit



China’s Rise, U.S. Re ‐ engagement

Professor Carl ThayerGeor e Mason Universit

March 22, 2011

thayer china's rise, us re-engagement in southeast asia

Documents