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The Aging Population in Texas: Trends, Characteristics, and Projections
Texas Assisted Living Association and LeadingAge Texas
Austin, TXFebruary 27, 2020
@TexasDemography
Population Growth of Select States, 2000‐2019
3
2000Population
2010Population
2019 Population
NumericChange
2010‐2019
PercentChange
2010‐2019
United States 281,421,906 308,745,538 32,823,9523 19,481,418 6.3%
Texas 20,851,820 25,145,561 28,995,881 3,849,790 15.3%
California 33,871,648 37,253,956 39,512,223 2,257,704 6.1%
Florida 15,982,378 18,801,310 21,477,737 2,673,173 14.2%
Georgia 8,186,453 9,687,653 10,617,423 928,694 9.6%
North Carolina 8,049,313 9,535,483 10,488,084 952,333 10.0%
Washington 5,894,121 6,724,540 7,614,893 890,353 13.2%
Arizona 5,130,632 6,392,017 7,278,717 886,429 13.9%
Colorado 5,029,196 5,029,196 5,758,736 729,417 14.5%Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Count, 2019 Population Estimates.
4
Texas added 367,215 people between July 1, 2018 and July 1, 2019.
• About 1,006 people per day added to our population.
• About 483 persons per day from natural increase (more births than deaths)
• About 523 per day from net migration (178 international and 345 domestic migrants per day).
Natural Increase48%Domestic
Migration34%
International Migration
18%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2018 Population Estimates.
Estimates of Components of Population Change, Texas, 2011‐2019
5Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2019 Vintage population estimates
213,651 208,964 205,795 213,541 214,380 212,021 209,690 190,951 175,878
70,535 76,954 82,44995,661 110,155 111,983 110,417
104,976
65,044
117,615145,513
110,614
163,160174,200
125,80079,163
82,569
125,660
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Natural Increase International Migration Domestic Net Migration
Total Estimated Population by County, Texas, 2018
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2018 Population Estimates
Pecos
Brewster
Webb
Hudspeth
PresidioTerrell
CulbersonReeves
Val Verde
Crockett
Hill
Duval
Harris
Frio
Bell
Kerr
Kenedy
Starr
Polk
Clay
Edwards
Irion
Hall
Ellis
Jeff Davis
Sutton
Uvalde
Bee
Hale
Dallam
Leon
Bexar
Gaines
Hidalgo
Upton
Hartley
King
Erath
Jack
Kinney
Kent
Zavala
Brazoria
Tyler
GrayOldham
Dimmit
CassLynn HuntWise
La Salle
Rusk
Kimble
Lamb
Medina
Floyd
Terry
Coke
Llano
Liberty
Ector
Andrews
Milam
Travis Lee
Knox
Mills
Smith
Falls
Ward
Collin
Jones
Nolan
Potter
Burnet
Cottle
Nueces
Taylor
Zapata
Real
Coryell
Bowie
Brown
Motley
Young
Lamar
Martin
Garza
DallasFisher
Moore
Baylor
Kleberg
Archer
Scurry
Cameron
Cooke
Mason
Parker
Castro
Navarro
Brooks
Hardin
Bailey
Deaf Smith
Lavaca
Donley
Hays
GoliadAtascosa
Denton
El Paso
Fannin
Tarrant
Wharton
Crane
Carson
Crosby
Borden
Schleicher
Haskell
Gillespie
Randall
Shelby
Foard
BriscoeParmer
Mitchell
Wood
Menard
Panola
Walker
Winkler
Willacy
Harrison
Eastland
Loving
Bandera
Wichita
Hood
Matagorda
Reagan Houston
Maverick
Jasper
Coleman
Tom Green
DeWitt
Bosque
Concho
Runnels
Fayette
Calhoun
Newton
Live Oak
Sterling
Jefferson
McMullen
Jim Hogg
Wilson
Victoria
Trinity
Roberts
Howard
Bastrop
Grayson
San Saba
Midland
Hockley Dickens
Swisher
Gonzales
Anderson
Dawson
Grimes
Wheeler
Cherokee
Colorado
Lubbock
Karnes
Red River
Refugio
Austin
Hemphill
Williamson
Jackson
Blanco
Ochiltree
McCulloch
Sherman
Wilbarger
Hansford
Callahan
McLennan
Yoakum
Angelina
Hopkins
Lipscomb
StephensPalo Pinto
Stonewall
Hamilton
MontagueCochran
Jim Wells
Limestone
Kaufman
Fort Bend
Titus
Comal
Armstrong
Kendall
FreestoneComancheGlasscock
Johnson
Galveston
Henderson
Montgomery
Brazos
Van Zandt
Chambers
Robertson
Waller
Sabine
Upshur
Hutchinson
Shackelford
Childress
Burleson
Nacogdoches
Lampasas
Collingsworth
Hardeman
Throckmorton
Guadalupe
Caldwell
Aransas
Marion
San Patricio
Madison
San Jacinto
Delta
Washington Orange
Rains
Gregg
Morris
San Augustine
Franklin
Somervell
Rockwall
152 - 10,000
10,001 - 100,000
100,001 - 500,000
500,001 - 2,000,000
2,000,001 - 4,698,619
Estimated Population Change, Texas Counties, 2010 to 2018
7
96 counties lost population over the 8 year period.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2018 Population Estimates
Pecos
Brewster
Webb
Hudspeth
PresidioTerrell
CulbersonReeves
Val Verde
Crockett
Hill
Duval
Harris
Frio
Bell
Kerr
Kenedy
Starr
Polk
Clay
Edwards
Irion
Hall
Ellis
Jeff Davis
Sutton
Uvalde
Bee
Hale
Dallam
Leon
Bexar
Gaines
Hidalgo
Upton
Hartley
King
Erath
Jack
Kinney
Kent
Zavala
Brazoria
Tyler
GrayOldham
Dimmit
CassLynn HuntWise
La Salle
Rusk
Kimble
Lamb
Medina
Floyd
Terry
Coke
Llano
Liberty
Ector
Andrews
Milam
Travis Lee
Knox
Mills
Smith
Falls
Ward
Collin
Jones
Nolan
Potter
Burnet
Cottle
Nueces
Taylor
Zapata
Real
Coryell
Bowie
Brown
Motley
Young
Lamar
Martin
Garza
DallasFisher
Moore
Baylor
Kleberg
Archer
Scurry
Cameron
Cooke
Mason
Parker
Castro
Navarro
Brooks
Hardin
Bailey
Deaf Smith
Lavaca
Donley
Hays
GoliadAtascosa
Denton
El Paso
Fannin
Tarrant
Wharton
Crane
Carson
Crosby
Borden
Schleicher
Haskell
Gillespie
Randall
Shelby
Foard
BriscoeParmer
Mitchell
Wood
Menard
Panola
Walker
Winkler
Willacy
Harrison
Eastland
Loving
Bandera
Wichita
Hood
Matagorda
Reagan Houston
Maverick
Jasper
Coleman
Tom Green
DeWitt
Bosque
Concho
Runnels
Fayette
Calhoun
Newton
Live Oak
Sterling
Jefferson
McMullen
Jim Hogg
Wilson
Victoria
Trinity
Roberts
Howard
Bastrop
Grayson
San Saba
Midland
Hockley Dickens
Swisher
Gonzales
Anderson
Dawson
Grimes
Wheeler
Cherokee
Colorado
Lubbock
Karnes
Red River
Refugio
Austin
Hemphill
Williamson
Jackson
Blanco
Ochiltree
McCulloch
Sherman
Wilbarger
Hansford
Callahan
McLennan
Yoakum
Angelina
Hopkins
Lipscomb
StephensPalo Pinto
Stonewall
Hamilton
MontagueCochran
Jim Wells
Limestone
Kaufman
Fort Bend
Titus
Comal
Armstrong
Kendall
Freestone
ComancheGlasscock
Johnson
Galveston
Henderson
Montgomery
Brazos
Van Zandt
Chambers
Robertson
Waller
Sabine
Upshur
Hutchinson
Shackelford
Childress
Burleson
Nacogdoches
Lampasas
Collingsworth
Hardeman
Throckmorton
Guadalupe
Caldwell
Aransas
Marion
San Patricio
Madison
San Jacinto
Delta
Washington Orange
Rains
Gregg
Morris
San Augustine
Franklin
Somervell
Rockwall
g-2,376 - 0
1 - 5,000
5,001 - 25,000
25,001 - 100,000
100,001 - 605,431
Estimated Percent Change of the Total Population by County, Texas, 2010 to 2018
8Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2018 Population Estimates
Pecos
Brewster
Webb
Hudspeth
PresidioTerrell
CulbersonReeves
Val Verde
Crockett
Hill
Duval
Harris
Frio
Bell
Kerr
Kenedy
Starr
Polk
Clay
Edwards
Irion
Hall
Ellis
Jeff Davis
Sutton
Uvalde
Bee
Hale
Dallam
Leon
Bexar
Gaines
Hidalgo
Upton
Hartley
King
Erath
Jack
Kinney
Kent
Zavala
Brazoria
Tyler
GrayOldham
Dimmit
CassLynn HuntWise
La Salle
Rusk
Kimble
Lamb
Medina
Floyd
Terry
Coke
Llano
Liberty
Ector
Andrews
Milam
Travis Lee
Knox
Mills
Smith
Falls
Ward
Collin
Jones
Nolan
Potter
Burnet
Cottle
Nueces
Taylor
Zapata
Real
Coryell
Bowie
Brown
Motley
Young
Lamar
Martin
Garza
DallasFisher
Moore
Baylor
Kleberg
Archer
Scurry
Cameron
Cooke
Mason
Parker
Castro
Navarro
Brooks
Hardin
Bailey
Deaf Smith
Lavaca
Donley
Hays
GoliadAtascosa
Denton
El Paso
Fannin
Tarrant
Wharton
Crane
Carson
Crosby
Borden
Schleicher
Haskell
Gillespie
Randall
Shelby
Foard
BriscoeParmer
Mitchell
Wood
Menard
Panola
Walker
Winkler
Willacy
Harrison
Eastland
Loving
Bandera
Wichita
Hood
Matagorda
Reagan Houston
Maverick
Jasper
Coleman
Tom Green
DeWitt
Bosque
Concho
Runnels
Fayette
Calhoun
Newton
Live Oak
Sterling
Jefferson
McMullen
Jim Hogg
Wilson
Victoria
Trinity
Roberts
Howard
Bastrop
Grayson
San Saba
Midland
Hockley Dickens
Swisher
Gonzales
Anderson
Dawson
Grimes
Wheeler
Cherokee
Colorado
Lubbock
Karnes
Red River
Refugio
Austin
Hemphill
Williamson
Jackson
Blanco
Ochiltree
McCulloch
Sherman
Wilbarger
Hansford
Callahan
McLennan
Yoakum
Angelina
Hopkins
Lipscomb
StephensPalo Pinto
Stonewall
Hamilton
MontagueCochran
Jim Wells
Limestone
Kaufman
Fort Bend
Titus
Comal
Armstrong
Kendall
FreestoneComancheGlasscock
Johnson
Galveston
Henderson
Montgomery
Brazos
Van Zandt
Chambers
Robertson
Waller
Sabine
Upshur
Hutchinson
Shackelford
Childress
Burleson
Nacogdoches
Lampasas
Collingsworth
Hardeman
Throckmorton
Guadalupe
Caldwell
Aransas
Marion
San Patricio
Madison
San Jacinto
Delta
Washington Orange
Rains
Gregg
Morris
San Augustine
Franklin
Somervell
Rockwall
-16% - -5%
-4% - 0%
1% - 14%
15% - 27%
28% - 85%
As Texas grows, it becomes older and increasingly diverse.
Texas Racial and Ethnic Composition, 2010 and 2018
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2018 Population Estimates 11
NH White, 45%
NH Black, 12%
NH Asian, 4%
NH Other, 2%
Hispanic, 38%
2010
White, NH42%
Black, NH12%
Asian, NH5%
Other, NH2%
Hispanic40%
2018
484,211 541,760 1,907,928 473,193 149,192
13.6% 15.2%
53.6%
13.3%
4.2%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
NH White NH Black Hispanic NH Asian NH Other
Percent Contribution by Race/Ethnicity to Total Population Change, 2010 to 2018
Race‐Ethnicity Composition by Age Group, 2010 to 2018, Texas
11
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2010 2018 2010 2018 2010 2018 2010 2018 2010 2018
Under 18 18 to 24 years 25 to 44 years 45 to 64 years 65 plus
Millions Hispanic
NH OtherNH AsianNH BlackNH White
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2018 Population Estimates
Texas is young, but aging.
2010 2017 2018
Numeric Change, 2010‐2018
NumericChange, 2017‐2018
Percent Change,
2010‐2018
Percent Change,
2017‐2018
Under 18 6,865,824 7,365,879 7,398,099 532,275 32,220 7.75% 0.44%
18 to 64 15,677,851 17,493,434 17,701,426 2,023,575 207,992 12.91% 1.19%
18 to 24 2,572,969 2,775,029 2,796,079 223,110 21,050 8.67% 0.76%
65 plus 2,601,886 3,463,404 3,602,320 1,000,434 138,916 38.45% 4.01%
85 plus 305,179 391,668 400,499 95,320 8,831 31.23% 2.25%
Population by Age Group, Texas, 2010, 2017, 2018
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2018 Population Estimates
Trends in Aging by County, 2010 to 2018
14
Young, Getting Younger (6 Counties)
Young, No Change (8 Counties)
Young, Getting Older (31 Counties)
Old, Getting Younger (31 Counties)
Old, No Change (92 Counties)
Old, Getting Older (86 Counties)
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Census Data; Texas Demographic Center, 2018 Population Estimates
Select Demographic and Social Characteristics for Population 65 years plus, Texas, 2018
Total Population Population 65 and up
Sex
Female 50.4% 55.4%
Male 49.6% 44.6%
Race/Ethnicity
White, NH 41.4% 62.6%
Black or African American 12.3% 9.2%
Hispanic 39.6% 23.1%
Asian 5.0% 4.0%
Marital Status
Married 48.2% 56.3%
Divorced or Separated 12.9% 15.8%
Widowed 5.1% 23.5%
Never married 33.9% 4.4%15Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2018 American Community Survey 1‐Year Estimates
Select Demographic and Social Characteristics for Population 65 years plus, Texas, 2018
Total Population Population 65 and up
Living alone 25.5% 38.8%
Living with grandchild(ren) 4.7% 7.1%
Responsible for grandchild(ren) 1.6% 1.7%
With a disability 11.4% 36.4%
Percent below poverty level 14.9% 11.1%
Veteran 6.8% 16.9%
16Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2018 American Community Survey 1‐Year Estimates
Select Demographic and Social Characteristics for Population 65 years plus, Texas, 2018
Total Population Population 65 and up
Educational Attainment Total Total
HS and above 84.0% 80.0%
BA and above 30.3% 27.4%
Labor Force Participation Rate 64.5% 28.2%
Employed 61.2% 19.6%
Computer and Internet Access
No computer 4.1% 14.7%
Computer with broadband 88.1% 89.3%
Computer without internet 7.7% 8.9%
17Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2018 American Community Survey 1‐Year Estimates
Population Projections
Projected Population, 2010‐2050, Texas
19
31.2
40.5
54.4
47.3
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
Millions
Zero Migration
0.5 Migration
1.0 Migration
2010‐2015 Migration
Source: Texas Demographic Center, 2014 and 2018 Population Projections
Projected Population by Race and Ethnicity, Texas 2010‐2030
20Source: Texas Demographic Center 2018 Population Projections
11.4 12.8
2.9
4.3
9.5
14.5
0.9
2.4
0.5 0.90
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Millions
NH White NH Black Hispanic NH Asian NH Other
Projected Population Change and Percent of Total Projected Change by Race/Ethnicity, 2010‐2030, Texas
21
1,376,711 1,436,158 4,992,028 1,466,352 477,642
14.1% 14.7%
51.2%
15.0%
4.9%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
NH White NH Black Hispanic NH Asian NH Other
Numeric Change Percent of Total Population Change
Source: Texas Demographic Center 2018 Population Projections
Projected Population by Age Group, Texas, 2010‐2050
22Source: Texas Demographic Center 2018 Population Projections
6,866
8,452
2,5733,293
7,072
9,822
6,033
7,752
2,297
4,962
305 614
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
00‐17 18‐24 25‐44 45‐64 65‐84 85‐95+
Projected Population 65 years plus by Race/Ethnicity, Texas, 2010‐2030
Total Population
NH White NH Black Hispanic NH Asian NH Other
2010 Population 2,601,886 1,760,065 218,374 532,921 65,301 25,225Share of 65 plus, 2010 68% 8% 20% 3% 1%2030 Projected Population 5,576,489 3,056,774 596,958 1,556,927 288,819 77,011Share of 65 plus, 2030 55% 11% 28% 5% 1%Numeric Change, 2010‐2030 2,974,603 1,296,709 378,584 1,024,006 223,518 51,786Percent Change, 2010‐2030 114.3% 73.7% 173.4% 192.1% 342.3% 205.3%
23Source: Texas Demographic Center 2018 Population Projections
2020 Census is in 35 days.
Texas Hard to Count PopulationsIn 2010, an estimated 240,000 Texans were undercounted in the Census.
An estimated 7 million, or nearly 25%, of Texans live in hard to count neighborhoods.
Some projections indicate up to 500,000 Texans could be undercounted in 2020.
Source: Center for Urban Research of the City University of New York (CUNY) Graduate Center.
