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@TexasDemography

Texas Demographics and Higher Education

Texas Association of State Senior College and

University Business Officers

San Antonio, Texas

October 23, 2017

Growing States, 2000-2016

2000Population(millions)

2010Population(millions)

2016 Population (millions)

NumericChange

2010-2016 (millions)

PercentChange

2010-2016

United States 281.4 308.7 323.1 14.3 4.7%Texas 20.8 25.1 27.8 2.7 10.8%California 33.8 37.2 39.2 1.9 5.4%Florida 15.9 18.8 20.6 1.8 9.6%Georgia 8.2 9.7 10.3 .6 6.4%North Carolina 8.0 9.5 10.1 .6 6.4%Washington 5.8 6.7 7.3 .6 8.4%Arizona 5.1 6.4 6.9 .5 8.4%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Count, 2016 Population Estimates.

Dallas

Howard

FoardFloyd

Brewster

FranklinHunt

Newton

Starr

Kinney

Collingsworth

TomGreen

Coleman

Brazoria

Leon

Duval

Lamb

Morris

Smith

Jackson

Medina

Wheeler

Dallam

Callahan

Lamar

Coryell

Gaines

Kendall

Nacogdoches

Milam

Hays

Willacy

Johnson

Reagan

Webb

Shackelford

Bowie

Scurry

Kenedy

Somervell

Oldham

Taylor

King

Borden

Walker

Stephens

Deaf Smith

Roberts

Tyler

Val Verde

Brown

Parker

Harris

Zapata

RedRiver

Karnes

PaloPinto

GlasscockShelby

Wood

Crosby

Refugio

Burnet

Sterling

Montgomery

San Augustine

Rains

Nueces

Jack

Swisher

Camp

Brazos

Orange

Colorado

Pecos

Cochran

Parmer

FreestoneWinkler

Wichita

Gray

Schleicher

Hardeman

TravisGillespie

Yoakum

Fayette

Uvalde

Grimes

VanZandt

Throckmorton

Falls

Grayson

Ellis

Hall

Dickens

TrinityReeves

Marion

Terrell

Lynn

LaSalle

Jasper

Jones

Castro

Victoria

Kleberg

Briscoe

Clay

Matagorda

Brooks

Runnels

Carson

Liberty

Lee

Hale

Bexar

Garza

Montague

UptonHamilton

FisherDawson

Dimmit

Hutchinson

Llano

Presidio

Eastland

Sabine

Wharton

Rusk

Tarrant

Lavaca

Childress

Hidalgo

Kaufman

Moore

Menard

Edwards

SanPatricio

Terry

Crockett

Houston

Waller

Coke

Ward

Titus

Lampasas

Haskell

Martin

Atascosa

HemphillHartley

Young

BurlesonHardin

Gonzales

McMullen

Erath

Galveston

Hopkins

McLennan

Madison

McCulloch

Donley

Kent

Real

Sutton

Midland

Hudspeth

Zavala

Harrison

Comanche

Mitchell

Navarro

Crane

Lubbock

Wise

Washington

Jeff Davis

El Paso

Gregg

Williamson

Lipscomb

Mason

Henderson

Hansford

Chambers

Hill

Potter

JimWells

DeltaStonewall

Ector

Cameron

Maverick

Collin

Baylor

Panola

Guadalupe

Bastrop

Austin

Andrews

Anderson

Blanco

DeWitt

Bandera

Bell

Aransas

Archer

Armstrong

Bee

Angelina

Bailey

Jefferson

Frio

Fannin

Goliad

Loving

Cass

Fort Bend

Bosque

Hockley

SanSaba

Kerr

Mills

Cooke

Wilbarger

Irion

Caldwell

JimHogg

Culberson

Upshur

Cherokee

Denton

Concho

Randall

Kimble

Knox

Polk

Hood

San Jacinto

Robertson

Wilson

Nolan

Cottle

Calhoun

Rockwall

LiveOak

Motley

Sherman Ochiltree

Comal

Total Estimated Population by County, Texas, 2016

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 Vintage Population Estimates

86%

113 - 10,000

10,001 - 50,000

50,001 - 100,000

100,001 - 500,000

500,001 - 4,589,928

Pecos

Brewster

Webb

Hudspeth

PresidioTerrell

CulbersonReeves

Val Verde

Crockett

Hill

Duval

Harris

Frio

Bell

Kerr

Kenedy

Starr

Polk

Clay

Edwards

Irion

Hall

Ellis

Jeff Davis

Sutton

Uvalde

Bee

Hale

Dallam

Leon

Bexar

Gaines

Hidalgo

Upton

Hartley

King

Erath

Jack

Kinney

Kent

Zavala

Brazoria

Tyler

GrayOldham

Dimmit

CassLynn HuntWise

La Salle

Rusk

Kimble

Lamb

Medina

Floyd

Terry

Coke

Llano

Liberty

Ector

Andrews

Milam

Travis Lee

Knox

Mills

Smith

Falls

Ward

Collin

Jones

Nolan

Potter

Burnet

Cottle

Nueces

Taylor

Zapata

Real

Coryell

Bowie

Motley

Young

Lamar

Martin

Garza

DallasFisher

Moore

Baylor

Kleberg

Archer

Scurry

Cameron

Cooke

Mason

Parker

Castro

Navarro

Brooks

Hardin

Deaf Smith

Lavaca

Donley

Hays

Goliad

Denton

El Paso

Fannin

Tarrant

Crane

Carson

Crosby

Borden

Schleicher

Gillespie

Shelby

Foard

Wood

Menard

Panola

Walker

Winkler

Harrison

Eastland

Loving

Bandera

Wichita

Hood

Matagorda

Brown

Reagan Houston

Maverick

Jasper

Coleman

Tom Green

Bailey

DeWittAtascosa

Bosque

Wharton

Concho

Runnels

Fayette

Haskell

Calhoun

Newton

Live Oak

Randall

Sterling

Jefferson

Briscoe

McMullen

Parmer

Jim Hogg

Mitchell

Wilson

Victoria

Trinity

Roberts

Howard

Bastrop

Grayson

San Saba

Midland

Hockley Dickens

Swisher

Gonzales

Anderson

Dawson

Willacy

Grimes

Wheeler

Cherokee

Colorado

Lubbock

Karnes

Red River

Refugio

Austin

Hemphill

Williamson

Jackson

Blanco

Ochiltree

McCulloch

Sherman

Wilbarger

Hansford

Callahan

McLennan

Yoakum

Angelina

Hopkins

Lipscomb

StephensPalo Pinto

Stonewall

Hamilton

MontagueCochran

Jim Wells

Limestone

Kaufman

Fort Bend

Titus

Comal

Armstrong

Kendall

FreestoneComancheGlasscock

Johnson

Galveston

Henderson

Montgomery

Brazos

Van Zandt

Chambers

Robertson

Waller

Sabine

Upshur

Hutchinson

Shackelford

Childress

Burleson

Nacogdoches

Lampasas

Collingsworth

Hardeman

Throckmorton

Guadalupe

Caldwell

Aransas

Marion

San Patricio

Madison

San Jacinto

Delta

Washington Orange

Rains

Gregg

Morris

San Augustine

Franklin

Somervell

Rockwall

Estimated Population Change, Texas Counties, 2010 to 2016

4Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 Vintage Population Estimates

96 counties lost population over the 6 year period.

-2,010 - 0

1 - 1,000

1,001 - 20,000

20,001 - 100,000

100,001 - 497,469

Estimated Percent Change of the Total Population by County, Texas, 2010 to 2016

5Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 Vintage Population Estimates

Pecos

Brewster

Webb

Hudspeth

PresidioTerrell

CulbersonReeves

Val Verde

Crockett

Hill

Duval

Harris

Frio

Bell

Kerr

Kenedy

Starr

Polk

Clay

Edwards

Irion

Hall

Ellis

Jeff Davis

Sutton

Uvalde

Bee

Hale

Dallam

Leon

Bexar

Gaines

Hidalgo

Upton

Hartley

King

Erath

Jack

Kinney

Kent

Zavala

Brazoria

Tyler

GrayOldham

Dimmit

CassLynn HuntWise

La Salle

Rusk

Kimble

Lamb

Medina

Floyd

Terry

Coke

Llano

Liberty

Ector

Andrews

Milam

Travis Lee

Knox

Mills

Smith

Falls

Ward

Collin

Jones

Nolan

Potter

Burnet

Cottle

Nueces

Taylor

Zapata

Real

Coryell

Bowie

Motley

Young

Lamar

Martin

Garza

DallasFisher

Moore

Baylor

Kleberg

Archer

Scurry

Cameron

Cooke

Mason

Parker

Castro

Navarro

Brooks

Hardin

Deaf Smith

Lavaca

Donley

Hays

Goliad

Denton

El Paso

Fannin

Tarrant

Crane

Carson

Crosby

Borden

Schleicher

Gillespie

Shelby

Foard

Wood

Menard

Panola

Walker

Winkler

Harrison

Eastland

Loving

Bandera

Wichita

Hood

Matagorda

Brown

Reagan Houston

Maverick

Jasper

Coleman

Tom Green

Bailey

DeWittAtascosa

Bosque

Wharton

Concho

Runnels

Fayette

Haskell

Calhoun

Newton

Live Oak

Randall

Sterling

Jefferson

Briscoe

McMullen

Parmer

Jim Hogg

Mitchell

Wilson

Victoria

Trinity

Roberts

Howard

Bastrop

Grayson

San Saba

Midland

Hockley Dickens

Swisher

Gonzales

Anderson

Dawson

Willacy

Grimes

Wheeler

Cherokee

Colorado

Lubbock

Karnes

Red River

Refugio

Austin

Hemphill

Williamson

Jackson

Blanco

Ochiltree

McCulloch

Sherman

Wilbarger

Hansford

Callahan

McLennan

Yoakum

Angelina

Hopkins

Lipscomb

StephensPalo Pinto

Stonewall

Hamilton

MontagueCochran

Jim Wells

Limestone

Kaufman

Fort Bend

Titus

Comal

Armstrong

Kendall

FreestoneComancheGlasscock

Johnson

Galveston

Henderson

Montgomery

Brazos

Van Zandt

Chambers

Robertson

Waller

Sabine

Upshur

Hutchinson

Shackelford

Childress

Burleson

Nacogdoches

Lampasas

Collingsworth

Hardeman

Throckmorton

Guadalupe

Caldwell

Aransas

Marion

San Patricio

Madison

San Jacinto

Delta

Washington Orange

Rains

Gregg

Morris

San Augustine

Franklin

Somervell

Rockwall

-4.8% - 0%

0.1% - 2.5%

2.6% - 5%

5.1% - 10%

10.1% - 18.1%

CountyU.S. Rank

Population Change

Population Change

Percent of Change from

Natural Increase

Percent Changefrom Domestic

Migration

Percent Change from

International Migration

Harris 2 56,587 79.9% -27.9% 48.1%Tarrant 5 35,462 44.4% 37.7% 17.9%Bexar 7 33,198 44.6% 39.3% 16.1%Dallas 9 29,209 79.9% -20.9% 41.0%

Denton 11 27,689 23.9% 67.1% 9.0%Fort Bend 13 27,388 24.8% 59.4% 15.8%

Collin 14 26,506 25.8% 58.7% 15.5%Travis 17 24,505 44.2% 33.3% 22.5%

Williamson 22 20,659 20.3% 74.1% 5.6%Montgomery 24 19,769 18.5% 73.5% 8.0%

Hidalgo* 54 10,529 113.5% -33.4% 19.9%Hidalgo County had negative net migration (-13.5% of total population growth).Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 Vintage Population Estimates

Top Counties for Numeric Growth in Texas, 2015-2016

Top Counties for Percent Growth* in Texas, 2015-2016

County U.S. Rank

2015-2016Percent

Population Change

Percent Change from

Domestic Migration

Percent Change from International

Migration

Kendall 2 5.2% 95.9% 4.0%Hays 3 5.1% 82.2% 1.8%

Comal 6 4.4% 88.5% 2.0%Williamson 14 4.1% 74.1% 5.6%Fort Bend 18 3.8% 59.4% 15.8%

Montgomery 24 3.7% 73.5% 8.0%Rockwall 25 3.6% 82.2% 2.5%Denton 28 3.6% 67.1% 9.0%

Kaufman 36 3.4% 81.3% 2.2%Bastrop 42 3.1% 83.5% 0.7%

Ellis 50 3.1% 78.1% 2.6%

*Among Counties with 10,000 or more population in 2016Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 Vintage Population Estimates

-3.4% -2.9% -2.9% -2.8% -2.5%

-0.3% -0.1%

4.5% 4.9% 5.1% 5.1%5.9%

7.1%

9.5%10.4%

13.2%

22.1%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

Estimated Percent of Total Net-Migrant Flows to and From Texas and Other States, 2015

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016. ACS Migration Flows, 2015

Texas Racial and Ethnic Composition, 2000, 2010, and 2015

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000, 2010 Decennial Census and 2015 Population Estimates 11

NH White, 53%

NH Black, 11%

NH Asian, 3%

NH Other, 1%

Hispanic, 32%

2000

NH White, 43%

NH Black, 12%

NH Asian, 5%NH Other, 2%

Hispanic, 39%

2015

NH White, 45%

NH Black, 12%

NH Asian, 4%

NH Other, 2%

Hispanic, 38%

2010

Texas Racial and Ethnic Composition, 1980 to 2050

10Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1980 to 2010 Decennial Censuses; Texas Demographic Center, 2014 Population Projections, Half Migration Scenario

Racial and Ethnic Composition of Texas and Top 10 Most Populous Counties, 2015

NH White NH Black Hispanic NH Asian NH OtherTEXAS 43.0% 11.8% 38.8% 4.6% 1.8%Denton County 60.9% 9.3% 19.2% 8.0% 2.6%

Collin County 59.4% 9.4% 15.2% 13.4% 2.7%

Travis County 49.5% 8.0% 33.9% 6.4% 2.1%

Tarrant County 48.6% 15.6% 28.2% 5.3% 2.4%

Fort Bend County 34.6% 20.1% 24.1% 19.2% 1.9%

Harris County 31.0% 18.5% 42.0% 7.0% 1.6%

Dallas County 30.6% 22.3% 39.5% 6.0% 1.6%

Bexar County 28.7% 7.3% 59.5% 2.7% 1.7%

El Paso County 13.1% 3.2% 81.3% 1.2% 1.2%

Hidalgo County 7.0% 0.5% 91.3% 1.0% 0.2%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2015 Vintage Population Estimates 12

Population Pyramids for Hispanics and Non-Hispanic Whites in Texas, 2010

12

13

Annual Shares of Recent Non-Citizen Immigrants to Texas by World Area of Birth, 2005-2015

69.4%

66.8%

61.0%

57.0%

59.0%

50.6%

57.4%

50.9%

42.9%

48.6%

44.1%

17.3%

19.9%

22.4%

28.2%

26.8%

33.0%

25.5%

34.3%

40.4%

33.6%

35.8%

7.8%

5.7%

6.2%

7.8%

7.7%

7.3%

9.9%

7.1%

9.0%

8.3%

7.1%

5.5%

7.6%

10.4%

7.0%

6.5%

9.1%

7.2%

7.8%

7.8%

9.5%

13.1%

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Latin America Asia Europe Africa and Other

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year PUMS

Unauthorized and Mexican Immigration, 2015

14

Median Household Income, Texas counties, 2011-2015

DallasHoward

FoardFloyd

Brewster

FranklinHunt

Newton

Starr

Kinney

Collingsworth

TomGreen

Coleman

Brazoria

Leon

Duval

Lamb

Morris

Smith

Jackson

Medina

Wheeler

Dallam

Callahan

Lamar

Coryell

Gaines

Kendall

Nacogdoches

Milam

Hays

Willacy

Johnson

Reagan

Webb

Shackelford

Bowie

Scurry

Kenedy

Somervell

Oldham

Taylor

King

Borden

Walker

Stephens

Deaf Smith

Roberts

Tyler

Val Verde

Brown

Parker

Harris

Zapata

RedRiver

Karnes

PaloPinto

GlasscockShelby

Wood

Crosby

Refugio

Burnet

Sterling

Montgomery

San Augustine

Rains

Nueces

Jack

Swisher

Brazos

Orange

Colorado

Pecos

Cochran

Parmer

Freestone

Winkler

Wichita

Gray

Schleicher

Hardeman

TravisGillespie

Yoakum

Fayette

Uvalde

Grimes

VanZandt

Throckmorton

Falls

Grayson

Ellis

Hall

Dickens

TrinityReeves

Marion

Terrell

Lynn

LaSalle

Jasper

Jones

Castro

Victoria

Kleberg

Briscoe

Clay

Matagorda

Brooks

Runnels

Carson

Liberty

Lee

Hale

Bexar

Garza

Montague

UptonHamilton

FisherDawson

Dimmit

Limestone

Hutchinson

Llano

Presidio

Eastland

Sabine

Wharton

Rusk

Tarrant

Lavaca

Childress

Hidalgo

Kaufman

Moore

Menard

Edwards

SanPatricio

Terry

Crockett

Houston

Waller

Coke

Ward

Titus

Lampasas

Haskell

Martin

Atascosa

HemphillHartley

Young

BurlesonHardin

Gonzales

McMullen

Erath

Galveston

Hopkins

McLennan

Madison

McCulloch

Donley

Kent

Real

Sutton

Midland

Hudspeth

Zavala

Harrison

Comanche

Mitchell

Navarro

Crane

Lubbock

Wise

Washington

Jeff Davis

El Paso

Gregg

Williamson

Lipscomb

Mason

Henderson

Hansford

Chambers

Hill

Potter

Jim Wells

DeltaStonewall

Ector

Cameron

Maverick

Collin

Baylor

Panola

Guadalupe

Bastrop

Austin

Andrews

Anderson

Blanco

DeWitt

Bandera

Bell

Aransas

Archer

Armstrong

Bee

Angelina

Bailey

Jefferson

Frio

Fannin

Goliad

Loving

Cass

Fort Bend

Bosque

Hockley

SanSaba

Kerr

Mills

Cooke

Wilbarger

Irion

Caldwell

JimHogg

Culberson

Upshur

Cherokee

Denton

Concho

Randall

Kimble

Knox

Polk

Hood

San Jacinto

Robertson

Wilson

Nolan

Cottle

Calhoun

Rockwall

LiveOak

Motley

ShermanOchiltree

Comal

17

$22,741.00 - $35,000.00

$35,000.01 - $45,000.00

$45,000.01 - $55,000.00

$55,000.01 - $65,000.00

$65,000.01 - $89,152.00

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2011-2015 5-Year Sample

Percent of the population with income below poverty, Texas counties, 2011-2015

18Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2011-2015 5-Year Sample

1.4% - 10%

10.1% - 15%

15.1% - 20%

20.1% - 30%

30.1% - 40.3%Dallas

Howard

FoardFloyd

Brewster

FranklinHunt

Newton

Starr

Kinney

Collingsworth

TomGreen

Coleman

Brazoria

Leon

Duval

Lamb

Morris

Smith

Jackson

Medina

Wheeler

Dallam

Callahan

Lamar

Coryell

Gaines

Kendall

Nacogdoches

Milam

Hays

Willacy

Johnson

Reagan

Webb

Shackelford

Bowie

Scurry

Kenedy

Somervell

Oldham

Taylor

King

Borden

Walker

Stephens

Deaf Smith

Roberts

Tyler

Val Verde

Brown

Parker

Harris

Zapata

RedRiver

Karnes

PaloPinto

GlasscockShelby

Wood

Crosby

Refugio

Burnet

Sterling

Montgomery

San Augustine

Rains

Nueces

Jack

Swisher

Brazos

Orange

Colorado

Pecos

Cochran

Parmer

Freestone

Winkler

Wichita

Gray

Schleicher

Hardeman

TravisGillespie

Yoakum

Fayette

Uvalde

Grimes

VanZandt

Throckmorton

Falls

Grayson

Ellis

Hall

Dickens

TrinityReeves

Marion

Terrell

Lynn

LaSalle

Jasper

Jones

Castro

Victoria

Kleberg

Briscoe

Clay

Matagorda

Brooks

Runnels

Carson

Liberty

Lee

Hale

Bexar

Garza

Montague

UptonHamilton

FisherDawson

Dimmit

Limestone

Hutchinson

Llano

Presidio

Eastland

Sabine

Wharton

Rusk

Tarrant

Lavaca

Childress

Hidalgo

Kaufman

Moore

Menard

Edwards

SanPatricio

Terry

Crockett

Houston

Waller

Coke

Ward

Titus

Lampasas

Haskell

Martin

Atascosa

HemphillHartley

Young

BurlesonHardin

Gonzales

McMullen

Erath

Galveston

Hopkins

McLennan

Madison

McCulloch

Donley

Kent

Real

Sutton

Midland

Hudspeth

Zavala

Harrison

Comanche

Mitchell

Navarro

Crane

Lubbock

Wise

Washington

Jeff Davis

El Paso

Gregg

Williamson

Lipscomb

Mason

Henderson

Hansford

Chambers

Hill

Potter

Jim Wells

DeltaStonewall

Ector

Cameron

Maverick

Collin

Baylor

Panola

Guadalupe

Bastrop

Austin

Andrews

Anderson

Blanco

DeWitt

Bandera

Bell

Aransas

Archer

Armstrong

Bee

Angelina

Bailey

Jefferson

Frio

Fannin

Goliad

Loving

Cass

Fort Bend

Bosque

Hockley

SanSaba

Kerr

Mills

Cooke

Wilbarger

Irion

Caldwell

JimHogg

Culberson

Upshur

Cherokee

Denton

Concho

Randall

Kimble

Knox

Polk

Hood

San Jacinto

Robertson

Wilson

Nolan

Cottle

Calhoun

Rockwall

LiveOak

Motley

ShermanOchiltree

Comal

Percent of the population aged 25 and older with a bachelor’s degree or higher, 2011-2015

DallasHoward

FoardFloyd

Brewster

FranklinHunt

Newton

Starr

Kinney

Collingsworth

TomGreen

Coleman

Brazoria

Leon

Duval

Lamb

Morris

Smith

Jackson

Medina

Wheeler

Dallam

Callahan

Lamar

Coryell

Gaines

Kendall

Nacogdoches

Milam

Hays

Willacy

Johnson

Reagan

Webb

Shackelford

Bowie

Scurry

Kenedy

Somervell

Oldham

Taylor

King

Borden

Walker

Stephens

Deaf Smith

Roberts

Tyler

Val Verde

Brown

Parker

Harris

Zapata

RedRiver

Karnes

PaloPinto

GlasscockShelby

Wood

Crosby

Refugio

Burnet

Sterling

Montgomery

San Augustine

Rains

Nueces

Jack

Swisher

Brazos

Orange

Colorado

Pecos

Cochran

Parmer

Freestone

Winkler

Wichita

Gray

Schleicher

Hardeman

TravisGillespie

Yoakum

Fayette

Uvalde

Grimes

VanZandt

Throckmorton

Falls

Grayson

Ellis

Hall

Dickens

TrinityReeves

Marion

Terrell

Lynn

LaSalle

Jasper

Jones

Castro

Victoria

Kleberg

Briscoe

Clay

Matagorda

Brooks

Runnels

Carson

Liberty

Lee

Hale

Bexar

Garza

Montague

UptonHamilton

FisherDawson

Dimmit

Limestone

Hutchinson

Llano

Presidio

Eastland

Sabine

Wharton

Rusk

Tarrant

Lavaca

Childress

Hidalgo

Kaufman

Moore

Menard

Edwards

SanPatricio

Terry

Crockett

Houston

Waller

Coke

Ward

Titus

Lampasas

Haskell

Martin

Atascosa

HemphillHartley

Young

BurlesonHardin

Gonzales

McMullen

Erath

Galveston

Hopkins

McLennan

Madison

McCulloch

Donley

Kent

Real

Sutton

Midland

Hudspeth

Zavala

Harrison

Comanche

Mitchell

Navarro

Crane

Lubbock

Wise

Washington

Jeff Davis

El Paso

Gregg

Williamson

Lipscomb

Mason

Henderson

Hansford

Chambers

Hill

Potter

Jim Wells

DeltaStonewall

Ector

Cameron

Maverick

Collin

Baylor

Panola

Guadalupe

Bastrop

Austin

Andrews

Anderson

Blanco

DeWitt

Bandera

Bell

Aransas

Archer

Armstrong

Bee

Angelina

Bailey

Jefferson

Frio

Fannin

Goliad

Loving

Cass

Fort Bend

Bosque

Hockley

SanSaba

Kerr

Mills

Cooke

Wilbarger

Irion

Caldwell

JimHogg

Culberson

Upshur

Cherokee

Denton

Concho

Randall

Kimble

Knox

Polk

Hood

San Jacinto

Robertson

Wilson

Nolan

Cottle

Calhoun

Rockwall

LiveOak

Motley

ShermanOchiltree

Comal

19

5.1% - 15%

15.1% - 20%

20.1% - 25%

25.1% - 30%

30.1% - 49.3%


20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

Mill

ions

Zero Net Migration

Half 2000 -2010

2000 -2010

2010 -2015

Projected Population Growth in Texas, 2010-2050

20Source: Texas State Data Center 2016 Population Projections

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

Mill

ions

Zero Net Migration

Half 2000 -2010

2000 -2010

2010 -2015

Estimates

Projected and Estimated Population Growth in Texas, 2010-2020

21Source: Texas State Data Center 2017 Population Projections. U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 Vintage Estimates

Population and Projected Share of Population by Age Group, Texas, 1950 to 2050

22Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Censuses and 2015 Population Estimates; Texas Demographic Center, 2014 Vintage Population Projections, 0.5 Migration Scenario

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050

Perc

ent o

f Tot

al P

opul

atio

n

in M

illio

ns

Total Percent under 18 Percent 65 and over

Projected population ages 17-19 for Texas, 2015-2050

1,213,616

1,374,4381,451,743 1,476,943

1,608,413

1,773,391

1,950,148

2,118,850

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

Texas

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

23Source: Texas State Data Center 2016 Population Projections, 2000-2010 Migration Scenario

Projected population ages 17-19 for select Texas counties, 2015-2050

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050


Data labels for 2030 and 2050

Projected population ages 17-19 for select Texas counties, 2015-2050

61,6

77

33,9

89

34,6

95 54,5

81

54,6

84

56,4

67

101,

241

114,

770

98,4

54

62,5

24

209,

252

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050


Data labels for 2030 and 2050

Estimated number of persons enrolled in school as undergraduates, Texas Counties, 2011-2015

DallasHoward

FoardFloyd

Brewster

FranklinHunt

Newton

Starr

Kinney

Collingsworth

TomGreen

Coleman

Brazoria

Leon

Duval

Lamb

Morris

Smith

Jackson

Medina

Wheeler

Dallam

Callahan

Lamar

Coryell

Gaines

Kendall

Nacogdoches

Milam

Hays

Willacy

Johnson

Reagan

Webb

Shackelford

Bowie

Scurry

Kenedy

Somervell

Oldham

Taylor

King

Borden

Walker

Stephens

Deaf Smith

Roberts

Tyler

Val Verde

Brown

Parker

Harris

Zapata

RedRiver

Karnes

PaloPinto

GlasscockShelby

Wood

Crosby

Refugio

Burnet

Sterling

Montgomery

San Augustine

Rains

Nueces

Jack

Swisher

Brazos

Orange

Colorado

Pecos

Cochran

Parmer

Freestone

Winkler

Wichita

Gray

Schleicher

Hardeman

TravisGillespie

Yoakum

Fayette

Uvalde

Grimes

VanZandt

Throckmorton

Falls

Grayson

Ellis

Hall

Dickens

TrinityReeves

Marion

Terrell

Lynn

LaSalle

Jasper

Jones

Castro

Victoria

Kleberg

Briscoe

Clay

Matagorda

Brooks

Runnels

Carson

Liberty

Lee

Hale

Bexar

Garza

Montague

UptonHamilton

FisherDawson

Dimmit

Limestone

Hutchinson

Llano

Presidio

Eastland

Sabine

Wharton

Rusk

Tarrant

Lavaca

Childress

Hidalgo

Kaufman

Moore

Menard

Edwards

SanPatricio

Terry

Crockett

Houston

Waller

Coke

Ward

Titus

Lampasas

Haskell

Martin

Atascosa

HemphillHartley

Young

BurlesonHardin

Gonzales

McMullen

Erath

Galveston

Hopkins

McLennan

Madison

McCulloch

Donley

Kent

Real

Sutton

Midland

Hudspeth

Zavala

Harrison

Comanche

Mitchell

Navarro

Crane

Lubbock

Wise

Washington

Jeff Davis

El Paso

Gregg

Williamson

Lipscomb

Mason

Henderson

Hansford

Chambers

Hill

Potter

Jim Wells

DeltaStonewall

Ector

Cameron

Maverick

Collin

Baylor

Panola

Guadalupe

Bastrop

Austin

Andrews

Anderson

Blanco

DeWitt

Bandera

Bell

Aransas

Archer

Armstrong

Bee

Angelina

Bailey

Jefferson

Frio

Fannin

Goliad

Loving

Cass

Fort Bend

Bosque

Hockley

SanSaba

Kerr

Mills

Cooke

Wilbarger

Irion

Caldwell

JimHogg

Culberson

Upshur

Cherokee

Denton

Concho

Randall

Kimble

Knox

Polk

Hood

San Jacinto

Robertson

Wilson

Nolan

Cottle

Calhoun

Rockwall

LiveOak

Motley

ShermanOchiltree

Comal

26

0 - 5,000

5,001 - 20,000

20,001 - 40,000

40,001 - 90,000

90,001 - 247,074


Estimated change in the number of persons enrolled in school as undergraduates, Texas Counties, 2006-2010 to

2011-2015

27Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2006-2010 and 2011-2015 5-Year Samples

DallasHoward

FoardFloyd

Brewster

FranklinHunt

Newton

Starr

Kinney

Collingsworth

TomGreen

Coleman

Brazoria

Leon

Duval

Lamb

Morris

Smith

Jackson

Medina

Wheeler

Dallam

Callahan

Lamar

Coryell

Gaines

Kendall

Nacogdoches

Milam

Hays

Willacy

Johnson

Reagan

Webb

Shackelford

Bowie

Scurry

Kenedy

Somervell

Oldham

Taylor

King

Borden

Walker

Stephens

Deaf Smith

Roberts

Tyler

Val Verde

Brown

Parker

Harris

Zapata

RedRiver

Karnes

PaloPinto

GlasscockShelby

Wood

Crosby

Refugio

Burnet

Sterling

Montgomery

San Augustine

Rains

Nueces

Jack

Swisher

Brazos

Orange

Colorado

Pecos

Cochran

Parmer

Freestone

Winkler

Wichita

Gray

Schleicher

Hardeman

TravisGillespie

Yoakum

Fayette

Uvalde

Grimes

VanZandt

Throckmorton

Falls

Grayson

Ellis

Hall

Dickens

TrinityReeves

Marion

Terrell

Lynn

LaSalle

Jasper

Jones

Castro

Victoria

Kleberg

Briscoe

Clay

Matagorda

Brooks

Runnels

Carson

Liberty

Lee

Hale

Bexar

Garza

Montague

UptonHamilton

FisherDawson

Dimmit

Limestone

Hutchinson

Llano

Presidio

Eastland

Sabine

Wharton

Rusk

Tarrant

Lavaca

Childress

Hidalgo

Kaufman

Moore

Menard

Edwards

SanPatricio

Terry

Crockett

Houston

Waller

Coke

Ward

Titus

Lampasas

Haskell

Martin

Atascosa

HemphillHartley

Young

BurlesonHardin

Gonzales

McMullen

Erath

Galveston

Hopkins

McLennan

Madison

McCulloch

Donley

Kent

Real

Sutton

Midland

Hudspeth

Zavala

Harrison

Comanche

Mitchell

Navarro

Crane

Lubbock

Wise

Washington

Jeff Davis

El Paso

Gregg

Williamson

Lipscomb

Mason

Henderson

Hansford

Chambers

Hill

Potter

Jim Wells

DeltaStonewall

Ector

Cameron

Maverick

Collin

Baylor

Panola

Guadalupe

Bastrop

Austin

Andrews

Anderson

Blanco

DeWitt

Bandera

Bell

Aransas

Archer

Armstrong

Bee

Angelina

Bailey

Jefferson

Frio

Fannin

Goliad

Loving

Cass

Fort Bend

Bosque

Hockley

SanSaba

Kerr

Mills

Cooke

Wilbarger

Irion

Caldwell

JimHogg

Culberson

Upshur

Cherokee

Denton

Concho

Randall

Kimble

Knox

Polk

Hood

San Jacinto

Robertson

Wilson

Nolan

Cottle

Calhoun

Rockwall

LiveOak

Motley

ShermanOchiltree

Comal

Decrease or 0

1 - 5,000

5,001 - 10,000

10,001 - 20,000

20,001 - 52,872

Public Higher Education

Source: Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board.Note: Not all race/ethnicity categories that were reported are included in table.

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

Bachelor Degrees Earned at Texas 4-Year Public Institutions by Race and Ethnicity, 1988-2015

African American American Indian/Alaskan Native Asian Hispanic International Multiracial Native Hawaiian/Pacific Island Unknown or Not Reported White

Percent of Civilian Labor Force by Occupation, Texas, 2008, 2014 and 2014-2008 Difference

9.3%

4.4% 4.4%

7.7%

3.9%

12.3%

9.9%

4.7%5.3%

6.8%

3.5%

12.0%

0.5% 0.3%0.9%

-0.9% -0.4% -0.3%-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

2008 2014 Difference 2014-2008

29Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year Sample, 2008, 2010, 2014`

Earnings and Education

Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year, 2015, B20004.

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

Total Less than HS HS Graduate (orEquivalent)

Some College orAssociate's

Degree

Bachelor'sDegree

Graduate orProfessional

Degree

Earn

ings

($)

Median Earnings in the Past 12 Months by Sex by Educational Attainment for the Population 25 Years and Over

Texas Male Female

Educational Attainment, Persons Aged 25 Years and Older, Texas, 2011 and 2015

2011 2015

Percent high school graduate or higher 81.1% 82.4% *

Percent bachelor's degree or higher 26.4% 28.4% *

31U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey, 1-Year Samples, 2011 and 2015* Years significantly different p<.05

Percent Distribution of Educational Attainment of Persons Aged 25 Years and Older, Texas, 2008, 2011, and 2015

20.4% 18.9% 17.6%

25.4% 25.5% 25.3%

28.8% 29.1% 28.7%

17.1% 17.7% 18.7%

8.3% 8.7% 9.7%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2008 2011 2015

Perc

ent

Year

Graduate orProfessional Degree

Bachelor Degree

Some College orAssociate Degree

High School orEquivelent

Less than High School

42.9%

57.1%

45.8%

54.2%

32Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year Samples, 2008-2015

11.8% 12.2%6.7%

36.5% 33.6%

29.6%

14.2% 23.9%

27.6%27.5%

36.3%

15.9%

32.2%

22.7%24.0%

22.4%

57.7%

37.2%

13.2% 15.0%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Black Asian Non-HispanicWhite

Hispanic All Other

Bachelor, Graduate,Professional Degree

Some College or AssociateDegree

High School or Equivelant

Less than High School

33

Educational Attainment of Persons Age 25 Years and Older by Race/Ethnicity, Texas, 2015

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year Sample, 2015

Trends in Educational Attainment of Persons in the Labor Force (25-64 Years of Age) in Texas by Race/Ethnicity –

High School Graduates and Above

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, Public Use Micro Sample, 2001-2011

Percent of the Civilian Labor Force (ages 25-64) by Educational Attainment for 2011, 2030 Using Constant Rates,

Texas

35

15.0%

23.8%

31.3%

20.1%

9.8%

18.1%

24.0%

29.9%

18.7%

9.3%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

Less than High School High School orEquivalent

Some College /Associate Degree

Bachelor's Degree Graduate orProfessional Degree

Perc

ent o

f the

Civ

ilian

Lab

or F

orce

Educational Attainment

2011 ACS

2030 Constant 2011 %

These should be going DOWN These should be going UP

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year PUMS.Texas State Data Center, 2012 Vintage Population Projections, 0.5 Migration Scenario

Percent of the Civilian Labor Force (ages 25-64) by Educational Attainment for 2011, and 2030 Using Trended

Rates, Texas

36

15.0%

23.8%

31.3%

20.1%

9.8%11.4%

20.4%

34.3%

22.1%

11.8%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

Less than High School High School orEquivalent

Some College /Associate Degree

Bachelor's Degree Graduate orProfessional Degree

Perc

ent o

f the

Civ

ilian

Lab

or F

orce

Educational Attainment

2011 ACS

2030 Trended (2001-2011 Trend)

These should be going DOWN These should be going UP

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year PUMS.Texas State Data Center, 2012 Vintage Population Projections, 0.5 Migration Scenario

Contact

State DemographerOffice: (210) 458-6530Email: [email protected]: demographics.texas.gov

Lloyd Potter, Ph.D.

@TexasDemography

37

mailto:Lloyd.Potter@

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