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TESLA: IT’S A STORY STOCK, BUT WHAT THE (YOUR) STORY? The power of the story

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Page 1: TESLA: IT’S A STORY STOCK, BUT WHAT THE (YOUR) STORY?people.stern.nyu.edu/adamodar/pdfiles/blog/Teslastory2016.pdf · Tesla to be a buy. ¨ If you believe instead that he is a showman

TESLA:IT’SASTORYSTOCK,BUTWHATTHE(YOUR)STORY?

Thepowerofthestory

Page 2: TESLA: IT’S A STORY STOCK, BUT WHAT THE (YOUR) STORY?people.stern.nyu.edu/adamodar/pdfiles/blog/Teslastory2016.pdf · Tesla to be a buy. ¨ If you believe instead that he is a showman

2

TheResilientStock

Bad news 1: Delivery shortfalls

Bad news 2: Fatality of driver using Tesla Auto PilotBad news 3: Tesla buys Solar City

Page 3: TESLA: IT’S A STORY STOCK, BUT WHAT THE (YOUR) STORY?people.stern.nyu.edu/adamodar/pdfiles/blog/Teslastory2016.pdf · Tesla to be a buy. ¨ If you believe instead that he is a showman

3

Value:Story+Numbers

Page 4: TESLA: IT’S A STORY STOCK, BUT WHAT THE (YOUR) STORY?people.stern.nyu.edu/adamodar/pdfiles/blog/Teslastory2016.pdf · Tesla to be a buy. ¨ If you believe instead that he is a showman

4

AStoryStock

Page 5: TESLA: IT’S A STORY STOCK, BUT WHAT THE (YOUR) STORY?people.stern.nyu.edu/adamodar/pdfiles/blog/Teslastory2016.pdf · Tesla to be a buy. ¨ If you believe instead that he is a showman

5

TheStoryStockEffect

¨ Storychangesandinformation:itisshiftsinthestorythatcausepriceandvaluechanges.Anearningsreportthatbeatsexpectations(ineitherdirection)oranewsstoryofsignificance(goodorbad)maynothaveanyeffectoneither(valueorprice)ifitdoesnotchangethestory.

¨ Widerdisagreements:Whenacompany’svalueisdrivenprimarilybynumbers,thereislessroomfordisagreement.Incontrast,withastorystock,investorstoriescanspanamuchwiderspectrum,leadingtoamuchbiggerrangeinvalues,asillustratedwithUberinthispost.

Page 6: TESLA: IT’S A STORY STOCK, BUT WHAT THE (YOUR) STORY?people.stern.nyu.edu/adamodar/pdfiles/blog/Teslastory2016.pdf · Tesla to be a buy. ¨ If you believe instead that he is a showman

6

TheTeslaStory:TheChoices

Page 7: TESLA: IT’S A STORY STOCK, BUT WHAT THE (YOUR) STORY?people.stern.nyu.edu/adamodar/pdfiles/blog/Teslastory2016.pdf · Tesla to be a buy. ¨ If you believe instead that he is a showman
Page 8: TESLA: IT’S A STORY STOCK, BUT WHAT THE (YOUR) STORY?people.stern.nyu.edu/adamodar/pdfiles/blog/Teslastory2016.pdf · Tesla to be a buy. ¨ If you believe instead that he is a showman
Page 9: TESLA: IT’S A STORY STOCK, BUT WHAT THE (YOUR) STORY?people.stern.nyu.edu/adamodar/pdfiles/blog/Teslastory2016.pdf · Tesla to be a buy. ¨ If you believe instead that he is a showman
Page 10: TESLA: IT’S A STORY STOCK, BUT WHAT THE (YOUR) STORY?people.stern.nyu.edu/adamodar/pdfiles/blog/Teslastory2016.pdf · Tesla to be a buy. ¨ If you believe instead that he is a showman

10

Tesla:Whatif?

Page 11: TESLA: IT’S A STORY STOCK, BUT WHAT THE (YOUR) STORY?people.stern.nyu.edu/adamodar/pdfiles/blog/Teslastory2016.pdf · Tesla to be a buy. ¨ If you believe instead that he is a showman

11

ElonMusk:TheXFactor

¨ ItisalmostimpossibletoseparateTesla,thecompany,fromElonMusk,itsfounder.Whatyoubelieveaboutonewilldrivewhatyoubelieveabouttheother.

¨ IfyoubelievethatMuskisavisionary,capableofseeingtheworldasitwillberatherthanasitis,andamanwhohasthebrillianceanddrivetodeliveronthatvision,youwillfindTeslatobeabuy.

¨ Ifyoubelieveinsteadthatheisashowmanwhopromisesfarmorethanhecandeliver,Teslaisasell.

¨ Thereisanintermediateposition,whereyoubelive thatMuskisaflawedvisionary,withtheflawsbeinglackoffocus,athinskinandadisinterestinthenittygrittyofoperations.Teslacanbeabuy,butonlyattherightprice,andifMuskcanfindanoperatingpartner.

Page 12: TESLA: IT’S A STORY STOCK, BUT WHAT THE (YOUR) STORY?people.stern.nyu.edu/adamodar/pdfiles/blog/Teslastory2016.pdf · Tesla to be a buy. ¨ If you believe instead that he is a showman

12

Tesla:InvestmentPlays

1. TheMomentumPlay:Youcansurfthestock,buyingitasthestorygetsbiggerandstrongerandgettingoutasthestorydevelopsweakness.

2. TheShortBet:IfyoubelievethatMusk’sflawswilloverwhelmhisstrengths,youcansellshortandwaitforthemarkettocomearoundtoyourpointofview.

3. TheLongBet:IfyoubelievethatMusk’sstrengthsaremuchgreaterthanhisweaknesses,youcanbuyandhold,ontheassumptionthathewilldeliveronhispromise.


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