terrorism threats & trends

17.471.02 American National Security 17.471.02 American National Security PolicyPolicy 11

TerrorismTerrorism Threats & TrendsThreats & Trends


Terrorism is a Political ActTerrorism is a Political Act

�� A weapon of A weapon of psychological warfare psychological warfare for political purposesfor political purposes

�� “…“…premeditated, politically motivated violence premeditated, politically motivated violence perpetrated against noncombatant targets by perpetrated against noncombatant targets by subnationalsubnational or clandestine agents, usually intended to or clandestine agents, usually intended to influence an audience.” influence an audience.”

�� Title 22 of USC, Sec. 2656f(d) Title 22 of USC, Sec. 2656f(d)


Terrorism is a Political ActTerrorism is a Political Act

�� to create extreme fear & anxiety in a to create extreme fear & anxiety in a target group larger than the immediate target group larger than the immediate victimsvictims –– with the purpose of coercing the larger target with the purpose of coercing the larger target

group into meeting some political demandgroup into meeting some political demand –– Use Use "extra"extra--normalnormal" violence in a " violence in a symbolicsymbolic actact –– specifcspecifc victimsvictims have no particular significance have no particular significance

to terroristto terrorist


Terrorism is Not Terrorism is Not IrrationalIrrational

�� Terrorism has its own Terrorism has its own logic that linkslogic that links –– GoalsGoals –– ObjectivesObjectives –– StrategyStrategy


Political Goals of TerrorismPolitical Goals of Terrorism

�� Political goals:Political goals: –– To create a sense of vulnerability in larger target To create a sense of vulnerability in larger target

populationpopulation –– To publicize terrorists’ plight; gain recognitionTo publicize terrorists’ plight; gain recognition –– To embolden their allies and supporters; gain supportTo embolden their allies and supporters; gain support �� provoke adversary into an inappropriate violent reactionprovoke adversary into an inappropriate violent reaction �� demonstrate the vulnerability & weakness of their adversarydemonstrate the vulnerability & weakness of their adversary

–– To push adversary into selfTo push adversary into self--constraining actsconstraining acts �� martial lawmartial law

–– To force policy change by adversary via public To force policy change by adversary via public pressurepressure �� turn public wrath against authorities (why are we turn public wrath against authorities (why are we

vulnerable?)vulnerable?)


Terrorism in Historical PerspectiveTerrorism in Historical Perspective

�� Acts of terrorism recorded over 2000 years Acts of terrorism recorded over 2000 years ago in Middle Eastago in Middle East

�� Term “terrorism” coined during the French Term “terrorism” coined during the French Revolution (1790s)Revolution (1790s)


““Traditional” TerrorismTraditional” Terrorism

�� Terrorists’ Concern for legitimacyTerrorists’ Concern for legitimacy –– ÎÎ moderated strategy of violencemoderated strategy of violence

�� Violence calibrated in relation to political Violence calibrated in relation to political objectivesobjectives –– Leaves future possibility for negotiation & political Leaves future possibility for negotiation & political

settlementsettlement �� PLO & Israel (until 2001)PLO & Israel (until 2001)

–– Excessive violence reduces legitimacy & claims for Excessive violence reduces legitimacy & claims for supportsupport

�� Terrorists Always claimed credit for their actsTerrorists Always claimed credit for their acts


““Traditional” TerrorismTraditional” Terrorism

�� <10% Terrorists Caught or killed<10% Terrorists Caught or killed –– <50% caught went to jail<50% caught went to jail �� ∴∴ low personal risklow personal risk

�� Origins & ActionsOrigins & Actions NationNation--basedbased


TerrorismTerrorism By the NumbersBy the Numbers


Recent Terrorist Acts Against the Recent Terrorist Acts Against the U.S.U.S.

�� 1983 1983 U.S. Embassy &U.S. Embassy & Marine Marine Barracks, LebanonBarracks, Lebanon

�� 1989 1989 LockerbeLockerbe PA103 bombingPA103 bombing �� 1993 1993 World Trade CenterWorld Trade Center �� [1996 [1996 Oklahoma CityOklahoma City] ] �� 1996 1996 KhobarKhobar Towers, Saudi ArabiaTowers, Saudi Arabia �� 1998 1998 East Africa Embassy BombingsEast Africa Embassy Bombings �� 2000 2000 USS Cole (Yemen)USS Cole (Yemen) �� 2001 2001 WTC & PentagonWTC & Pentagon


International TerrorismInternational Terrorism Incidents & CasualtiesIncidents & Casualties

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

1980-1984

1985-1989

1990-1994

1995-1999

2000-2001

Incidents Casualties

Injured in WTC attack is not included


Terrorist IncidentsTerrorist Incidents

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

Anti-U.S. Non-U.S.


Types of Facilities Attacked in Types of Facilities Attacked in International Terrorist IncidentsInternational Terrorist Incidents

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

Business Diplomat Government Military

Other


Casualties in AntiCasualties in Anti--U.S. AttacksU.S. Attacks

0 500

1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000

1988

19

89

1990

19

91

1992

19

93

1994

19

95

1996

19

97

1998

19

99

2000

20

01

Injured in WTC attack is not included


U.S. Citizen Casualties in U.S. Citizen Casualties in International Terrorist AttacksInternational Terrorist Attacks

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

Killed Wounded


Major AntiMajor Anti--U.S. Terrorist IncidentsU.S. Terrorist Incidents U.S. CasualtiesU.S. Casualties

11011030530519831983U.S. Embassy & Marine U.S. Embassy & Marine BarracksBarracks

3939171720002000USS ColeUSS Cole

33503350

1212

1919

66

189189

KilledKilled

??20012001WTC & PentagonWTC & Pentagon

11; 5000 (non11; 5000 (non--US)US)19981998Nairobi & Dar Nairobi & Dar eses SalaamSalaam

500 (U.S. & others)500 (U.S. & others)19961996KhobarKhobar

1000100019931993World Trade CenterWorld Trade Center

--19881988Pan Am 103Pan Am 103

WoundedWoundedYearYear


AntiAnti--U.S. TerrorismU.S. Terrorism Types of AttacksTypes of Attacks

0

50

100

150

200

250

Inci

dent

s

1990 1995 2000 2001

Other Fire-Bombing Bombing Kidnap Arson Armed Attack


AntiAnti--U.S. TerrorismU.S. Terrorism Regional PatternsRegional Patterns

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Inci

dent

s

1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001

Eurasia

Asia

Middle East

N. America

Africa

W. Europe

Latin America


States Sponsoring Terrorism <2001States Sponsoring Terrorism <2001

�� IranIran �� IraqIraq �� SyriaSyria �� SudanSudan �� LibyaLibya �� North KoreaNorth Korea �� CubaCuba


The “New” TerrorismThe “New” Terrorism


““New” TerrorismNew” Terrorism

�� ReligionReligion--basedbased –– Self legitimacy Self legitimacy ÎÎ no need for restraintno need for restraint –– Sense of superiority Sense of superiority ÎÎ no need for restraintno need for restraint –– Personal risk unimportant; sacred missionPersonal risk unimportant; sacred mission

�� Greater Violence Greater Violence ÎÎ Greater "Good"Greater "Good" –– death of victims reduces number of nondeath of victims reduces number of non--believersbelievers –– 1995: 25% of terrorist attacks religion1995: 25% of terrorist attacks religion--basedbased �� Accounting for 60% of all fatalities [Simon & Benjamin Accounting for 60% of all fatalities [Simon & Benjamin

(2000)](2000)]

�� Claiming credit for specific acts less importantClaiming credit for specific acts less important –– political message is vulnerability & destruction of political message is vulnerability & destruction of

adversaryadversary


““New” TerrorismNew” Terrorism �� TransnationalTransnational �� Better technology & means for Better technology & means for

terror effectsterror effects –– CommunicationsCommunications –– financialfinancial –– weaponry & explosivesweaponry & explosives

�� WMD?WMD?

�� Greater Vulnerability of Modern Greater Vulnerability of ModernUrban Technological SocietiesUrban Technological Societies –– fragile complex systemsfragile complex systems –– communicationscommunications –– Energy (electricity)Energy (electricity) –– Transport (food, commodities, Transport (food, commodities,

people)people) –– financial flowsfinancial flows

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