Terrorism Threat AssessmentFor Megaports Initiative

Presentation Structure

Terrorist Attacks and Characteristics

Rationality of Concern Incidents of Interest Threat and Modus Operandi Profile

Terrorist Tactics

Aerial – Maritime - Ground attack

Aircraft as Aircraft as guided guided missilemissile

(11 Sep 2001)(11 Sep 2001)

SuperFerry14 SuperFerry14 Bombing off Bombing off Manila bay Manila bay (27 Feb 2004)(27 Feb 2004)

Truck Bomb JW Marriott Truck Bomb JW Marriott Islamabad (20 Sep Islamabad (20 Sep 2008)2008)

Characteristics of Contemporary attack

Indiscriminate targeting civilian victims

Mass casualty Lethal weapons (including CBRN)

What is Terrorism?What is Terrorism?

Politically motivated violence or threat of violence designed to coerce others into actions or to refrain from actionsBut..

What is Terrorism?What is Terrorism?

No consensus on its definitionStill..There are..3 International Conventions mentioned “terrorist/terrorism”

International ConventionInternational Convention

International Convention for the Suppression of Terrorist Bombings (1997)International Convention for the Suppression of the Financing of Terrorism (1999)International Convention for the Suppression of Acts of Nuclear Terrorism (2005)

Rationality of ConcernRationality of Concern

International Convention on Nuclear Terrorism (2005)

Intelligence Community Annual Threat Assessment. Director of National Intelligence USA (12 Feb 2009)

Strategy for Countering International Terrorism. UK (March 2009)

International Convention on Nuclear Terrorism (2005)

“acts of terrorism”- possess/use (radioactive material,

device) unlawfully and intentionally- to cause death/ serious bodily

injury- to cause substantial damage to

property/ environment- to compel person/international

organization/ state to do or refrain from doing an act

- accomplice/ organize/ direct

Intelligence Community Annual Threat Assessment

The terrorist CBRN threat“…we will continue to face a substantial threat.. from terrorists attempting to acquire biological, chemical, and possibly nuclear weapons and use them to conduct large-scale attacks”

Strategy for Countering International Terrorism

“Contemporary terrorist organizations aspire to use chemical, biological and even nuclear weapons. Changing technology and the theft and smuggling...make this aspiration more realistic...”

OpportunityOpportunity

CapabilityCapability

MotivationMotivation

Terrorist attack occur Terrorist attack occur if:if:

ThreaThreatt

Vulnerability

RiskRisk

Threat

Feeling of unsafe or danger (individual and strategic dimension)

Intention to take a hostile or launch attack against a specific target

Vulnerability

Characteristics of a target which could be exploited in an attack

Risk

The probability that an attack will be attempted and will be successful

Terrorist Groups

Sources of threat today:

AL QA’IDA (AQ)AQ AFFILIATE GROUPSAQ INSPIRED GROUPS/ INDIVIDUALS

Al-Qa’ida Established around 1988 Usama Bin Ladin (UBL) and Ayman al Zawahiri are core leaders

Fatwa (Feb 98Fatwa (Feb 98 ) ) World World Islamic Front Against Islamic Front Against Jews and CrusadersJews and Crusaders “ “sayinsayin

g it was the duty of all Musl g it was the duty of all Musl ims to kill US citizens—civ ims to kill US citizens—civ

ilian or military—and their ilian or military—and their allies everywhere allies everywhere ””

Al-Qa’ida

The first transnational group to support the use of CBRN weapons against civilian targets and to try to use them

UBL interviewed by Al Jazeera in 1998 “...there is a duty on Muslims to acquire them...”

Incidents of Interest

Ahmed Ressum, an Algerian accused of planning to bomb the LA airport, arrested at Port Angeles on 14 Dec 1999

Testified that AQ taught to poison people by putting toxins on doorknobs

Incidents of Interest

Yazid Sufaat, Malaysian JI (Al Jemaah Al Islamiyah) member, arrested 9 Dec 2001Believed to be one of AQ's anthrax researchers

Released 10 Dec 2008

Incidents of Interest

In August 2002, CNN released videotape recording AQ chemical experiment involving dogs that were exposed to vapors from a white liquid

Incidents of Interest

Jose Padilla @ Abdullah al Muhajir, arrested 8 May 2002, alleged to develop and use a dirty bomb

Sentenced to 17 years and 4 months in prison (Jan 2008)

Incidents of Interest

Dhiren Barot, arrested Aug 2004, pleaded guilty of planning to murder people using a dirty bomb

Sentenced to life in prison (Nov 2006)

Incidents of Interest

Narong Penanam, a Thai school principal from NE province of Surin, arrested 13 Jun 2003, accused of trying to sell Cesium-137

An example of illicit trafficking

Incidents of Interest In April 2004, Chemical attack targeting Jordanian GID was thwarted.AQI-Abu Musab al-Zarqawi planned to use suicide truck-bomb loaded with 30 tons of chemical explosive.

Threat Level of Attack

Low - unlikelyModerate - possibleSubstantial - strongSevere - highly likelyCritical - expected imminently

Radiological IEDs

Improvised conventional explosives with radioactive materials

Nine radioactive materials: americium-241, californium-252, cesium-137, cobalt-60, iridium-192, plutonium-238, polonium-210, radium-226, strontium-90

Radiological IEDs

Considered high-tech weapon Radiation exposure is something we

can’t see or feel, thus it becomes unknown source of danger

Vulnerabilities & Risks: A case of International Cooperation

Telecommunication and high technology equipments private company (in Thailand), joint venture with Ministry of Postal Service (in N.Korea),

Purchased (early March 2003) three sets of stabilized direct current power supply from producer (in Japan)

Vulnerabilities & Risks: A case of International Cooperation

Custom Service (in Hong Kong)seized subjects (9 Apr 2003) upon request from Japanese counterpart,

Enroute (3 Apr 2003) from Kobe via Hong Kong, and expected to arrive Laem Chabang port (11 Apr 2003)

Vulnerabilities & Risks

Aspiration Radioactive material could be

obtained by stealing/ smuggling or buying (legal or illegal channels

Cover / front organization

False documentation

Vulnerabilities & Risks

Small ports or on the road

Concealment to offset detection

Lack of security

Cyberspace information

Extremists infiltration

EndofPresentationTHANK YOU