tereza cavazos name working group puerto vallarta, mexico november 2003 cicese and uabc...
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Tereza Cavazos
NAME Working GroupPuerto Vallarta, Mexico
November 2003
CICESE and UABC Participation in
NAME
Dept. of Physical Oceanography
2002
Components:
- Oceanographic- Atmospheric- Land-Surface
Title
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Oceanographic Comp
MW Douglas - NSSLAS Mascarenhas - UABCMF Lavin – CICESE, Ens.R Castro - UABCE Beier – CICESE, La PazD Mitchell - DRIP Guest - NPSD Ivanova - DRI
The Role of Oceanic Processes on the Gulf of California SST Evolution
During the NAME
OceanographicComponent
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SST_clim: Sat
JPL AVHRR Pathfinder Global 9 Km SST Climatology
HYPOTHESIS:
Northward advance of the monsoon seems to be related to the poleward progression of the 26oC isotherm on the eastern side of the GC
http://podaac.jpl.nasa.gov/climatology
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Corr_SST: Model
June to September monthly climatology of currents (cms-1) and temperature (oC) in the 25-50 m layer of the POCM-4C model.
September
June July
AugustObservations:
TSW at the entrance of the GC Max in May-Jun
- Castro et al. 2000 - Castro 2001- Mascarenhas et al. 2003
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Corr:Model
Modeling the circulation
and heat fluxes in the GC
(G. Marinone & A. Parés)
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QuickScat
Surface Wind Climatology
Using QuikScat
(G. Marinone & A. Parés)
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Scientific Question
What is the relative importance of oceanic heat advection and local-air sea fluxes in controlling the SST evolution
during the NAM in the Gulf of California ?
Objective
The Role of Oceanic Processes on the Gulf of California SST
Evolution During the NAME
OceanographicComponent
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Cruises
- Observing stations along the blue lines - CTD every 10 km and down to 1000m - Atmospheric soundings 4/day
- Continuous meteorological, ADCP and SST data will be collected throughout the cruises
-The coastal meteorological stations and ADCP+MicroCAT moorings will be deployed at both sides of the GC
- Large dots: possible deployment sites for surface satellite-tracked drifters
Proposed NAMEOceanographic Cruises
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Objective 1:
Determine characteristics of convective phenomena
- GOES satellite imagery
- Surface and upper-air observations
- Mesoscale model simulations (MM5)
Convective Patterns OverBaja California
(LM Farfán – CICESE, La Paz)
AtmosphericComponent
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LF2
- Large-scale conditions and dynamic
mechanisms
- Changes in structure due to storm
interaction with the peninsula
- Determine patterns of wind/rainfall
distribution to identify high-risk areas Hurricane Marty: 12UTC 22 September 2003
Objective 2: Study landfall tracks in Baja California
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D. Lettenmaier,
T. Cavazos & C. Zhu
Land-surface hydrologic predictability in the NAM region using a derived long-term data
set
1
To what extent do soil moisture and snow anomalies affect the evolution of the NAM?
Science Question
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Extend retrospective LDAS data set to cover Tiers 1, 2 and 3 for ~ 50 yrs
Objectives
Using the derived LDAS, undertake predictability studies to investigate the role of land-surface feedbacks in the monsoon region
Current soil moisture data (LDAS; 1950-97): Derived from a variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model with 1/8º resolution (Maurer et al. 2002).
Study Domain
Tier 3
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Winter Precipitation-monsoon rainfall feedback hypothesis
Higher (lower) winter precipitation
& spring snowpack
More (less) spring &
early summer soil moisture
Lower (higher) spring & early summer surface
temperature
Weak (strong) monsoon
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Monsoon West
Monsoon South
Monsoon North
Monsoon East
Precipitation Regions
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Winter Precip
JFM Precipitation in extreme monsoon
years
DRY WET
Wet Monsoon Dry Monsoon
Apr-May Soil Moisture in extreme monsoon
years
Snow
DRY WET
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Moisture
WetDry
Soil moisture anomalies persist from spring until June
What is the feedback to the atmosphere ?
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CorrelationMay-Jun SWE and
Surface temperature (Ts)
(Negative relationship)
CorrelationJune Ts vs July Precipitation
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Wet modes
Heterogeneous SVD JAS Z500 vs JAS Precipitation
Dry
?
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Heterogeneous SVD JFM SST vs JAS Precipitation
-0.4
0.4
-0.4
Negative PDO Dry monsoon
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SVD: Z500 (AMJ) & PPT (JAS)
Mode 1: Z500 (AMJ)
JAS Pan: NWMex & AZ
DRY
WET
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Conclusions
Higher (lower) winter precipitation
& spring snowpack
More (less) spring &
early summer soil moisture
Lower (higher) spring & early summer surface
temperature
Weak (strong) monsoon
Atmospheric connection:Winter SSTan and
Spring Z500 circulation
Especially During Extreme Years