tennessee retail academy partners€¦ · 14 chipotle mexican grill $ 4,397 15 applebee's...

TENNESSEE RETAIL ACADEMY PARTNERS

of overall

Retail Sales

are conducted

OnlineUS Census Bureau Q4 2018

10%

retail is not dying

it’s changing

Consumer Confidence

18 Year High

The high level of confidence reflects a sturdy economic expansion in the U.S. that’s about to turn nine years old. Job openings are at a record high and unemployment is at a record low.”

The Conference BoardConsumer Confidence Index®

The Real Story

Retail Decline

• Many of these Retailers Have been Shrinking for a Decade

• Outdated Business Models or Market Issues?

Source: IHL Group, CompanyReports

Source: Lee Holman & Greg Buzek, IHL Group, Beyond the “Retail Apocalypse” to a bright Future, August 2018

Rite Aid

Stripes C-Stores

Toys R Us

Mattress Firm

Best Buy

Radio Shack

The Bon Ton

Sears/Kmart

Signet Jewelers

Ascena Retail

Charming Charlie

Gymboree

Payless Shoesource

The Children’s Place

Orchard Supply

Perfumania

Plans for 2018 Retail Stores Decline

Retail Growth

• Fastest Growing Retailers: Dollar, C-Stores, Beauty, and Specialty Hardgoods

• What’s Growing Mirrors the Incomes of Consumers:

• More Discounters

• Less Mid-Range Luxury

Source: IHL Group, CompanyReports


Walgreens

7-Eleven

Dollar General

Couche-Tard

Dollar Tree

O’ Reilly

Great Clips

Autozone

Fantastic Sam’s

Five Below

Ulta Beauty

Sherwin Williams

MINISO

Marathon Oil

Harbor Freight

Tractor Supply

Plans for 2018 Retail Store Count Growth

Every 5 Hours in America a New Dollar Store Opens

Twitter: @BeasleyLacy [email protected]

Superstores/WH Clubs

Bar / Restaurants

Convenience Stores

Specialty Softgoods

Specialty Hardgoods

Fast Food

Mass Merchandisers

Drug Stores

Department Stores

Food / Grocery

% Net Opening Stores vs Net Closing

% Banners Closing Stores % Banners Gaining Stores

For each companyclosing stores

2.7

are opening stores

Source: IHL Group, Company Reports

83%

17%

3% 85%

44%

40%36%

49%23%

34%

34%14%

54%16%

68%

26%

21%

24%

30%

36%


Retail is Growing

$$$Grocery

or Restaurant

$$$$

RESTAURANT

Source: Nations Restaurant News

3.2%

Average Systemwide Sales Growth

of Top 200 Chains

Restaurants


Fast Casual Growing Brands

Quick Service Restaurants

QSR [Quick Service Brands] Growing

22

Expanding Restaurant Brands in TENNESSEE

Twitter: @BeasleyLacy [email protected]

19 BRANDS OF FOCUS OPENED IN 41% OF RA COMMUNITIES

Challenges

Goals

Why should a community invest in retail?

We surround your community with the resources and actions needed to create the desired results.

Within the Retail Academy participant communities, the June 2017 – June 2018 economic impact has created

576

new jobs

$1.7M

local tax revenue

$4.5M

state tax revenue

Retail is 15% of National GDP

Source: National Retail Federation

889,319 Jobs Supported by Retail

78,608 Retail Establishments

$51.5 Billion in Total GDP Impact

National Overview

of Restaurant

Trends

QUIZ

LARGEST RESTAURANT CHAIN BY SYSTEMWIDE SALES?

TOP

25

BY

SYST

EMW

IDE

SALE

S

Rank ChainSystemwide Sales (Millions)

1 McDonald's $ 37,639 2 Starbucks Coffee $ 18,995 3 Subway $ 10,800 4 Taco Bell $ 9,790 5 Burger King $ 9,624 6 Wendy's $ 9,342 7 Chick-fil-A $ 8,965 8 Dunkin' Donuts $ 8,459 9 Domino's $ 5,925

10 Panera Bread $ 5,538 11 Pizza Hut $ 5,511 12 KFC $ 4,417 13 Sonic Drive-In $ 4,408 14 Chipotle Mexican Grill $ 4,397

15 Applebee's Neighborhood Grill & Bar $ 4,117 16 Olive Garden $ 4,044 17 Buffalo Wild Wings $ 3,751 18 Little Caesars Pizza $ 3,672 19 Arby's $ 3,634 20 Dairy Queen $ 3,628 21 Jack in the Box $ 3,468 22 Chili's Grill & Bar $ 3,416 23 IHOP $ 3,148 24 Panda Express $ 3,115 25 Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen $ 3,036

QUIZ

LARGEST RESTAURANT CHAIN BY NUMBER OF LOCATIONS?

Rank Chain Number of Units

1 Subway 25,908

2 McDonald's 14,036

3 Starbucks Coffee 13,932

4 Dunkin' Donuts 9,141

5 7-Eleven 7,963

6 Pizza Hut 7,522

7 Burger King 7,226

8 Taco Bell 6,446

9 Wendy's 5,769

10 Domino's 5,587

11 Circle K 4,463

12 Dairy Queen 4,413

13 Little Caesars Pizza 4,301

14 KFC 4,109

15 Sonic Drive-In 3,593

16 Papa John's Pizza 3,314

17 Arby's 3,283

18 Jimmy John's Gourmet Sandwiches 2,755

19 Baskin-Robbins 2,538

20 Chipotle Mexican Grill 2,363

21 Jack in the Box 2,250

22 Chick-fil-A 2,234

23 Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen 2,201

24 Casey's General Store 2,041

25 Panda Express 2,011

TOP

25

BY

NU

MB

ER O

F U

NIT

S

QUIZ

LARGEST RESTAURANT CHAIN BY AVERAGE SALES PER UNIT?

ChainAverage Annual Sales Per Unit (000)

Del Frisco’s Double Eagle Steak House $ 14,136 Mastro's Steakhouse/Ocean Club $ 13,871 Dave & Buster's $ 11,599 The Cheesecake Factory $ 10,496 Rainforest Cafe $ 9,454 Cooper's Hawk Winery & Restaurant $ 8,793 Portillo's $ 8,763 Yard House $ 8,232 Maggiano's Little Italy $ 7,977 Bubba Gump Shrimp Co. $ 7,807 The Capital Grille $ 7,793 Fogo de Chão $ 7,655 Legal Sea Foods $ 6,926 Bahama Breeze $ 6,224 Seasons 52 $ 6,015 BJ’s Restaurant & Brewhouse $ 5,374 Ruth's Chris Steak House $ 5,264 Miller's Ale House $ 4,986 Texas Roadhouse $ 4,972 Saltgrass Steak House $ 4,876 Olive Garden $ 4,789 Hard Rock Cafe $ 4,578 Cracker Barrel Old Country Store $ 4,555 Cheddar's Scratch Kitchen $ 4,407 Fleming's Prime Steakhouse & Wine Bar $ 4,380

TOP

25

BY

AN

NU

AL

SALE

S P

ER U

NIT

TOP

15

BY

% O

F U

NIT

GR

OW

TH

Rank Chain # Units % Increase

1 MOD Pizza 92 59%

2 Shake Shack 49 41%

3 Blaze Fast-Fire'd Pizza 105 37%

4 Fuzzy’s Taco Shop 86 25%

5 Black Bear Diner 74 23%

6 Pret a Manger 65 22%

7 First Watch 140 21%

8 The Habit Burger Grill 142 21%

9 Cooper's Hawk Winery & Restaurant 20 20%

10 Zoës Kitchen 166 19%

11 Freddy's Frozen Custard & Steakburgers 177 19%

12 Raising Cane’s Chicken Fingers 250 17%

13 Cafe Rio Mexican Grill 87 16%

14 Tropical Smoothie Cafe 465 16%

15 Fogo de Chão 29 16%

37

Growth Leaders

38

Growth Leaders

TOP

15

BY

# O

F U

NIT

GR

OW

TH

Rank Chain # New Units

1 Starbucks Coffee 760

2 Dunkin' Donuts 313

3 Domino's 216

4 Circle K 192

5 Taco Bell 168

6 Chipotle Mexican Grill 165

7 Jersey Mike's Subs 156

8 Chick-fil-A 149

9 Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen 134

10 Panda Express 118

11 MOD Pizza 110

12 Jimmy John's Gourmet Sandwiches 108

13 Wingstop 105

14 Marco's Pizza 97

15 Tropical Smoothie Cafe 88

2,879 new units15 brands

15

-30

BY

# O

F U

NIT

GR

OW

TH

Rank Chain # New Units

16 Firehouse Subs 77

17 Smoothie King 72

18 Burger King 70

19 Blaze Fast-Fire'd Pizza 64

20 Casey's General Store 63

21 Zaxby's 61

22 7-Eleven 59

23 Raising Cane’s Chicken Fingers 50

24 Bojangles' Famous Chicken 'n Biscuits 48

25 Arby's 46

26 Cinnabon 46

27 Freddy's Frozen Custard & Steakburgers 45

28 Panera Bread 42

29 First Watch 42

30 Wawa 41

826 new units15 brands

TOP

15

BY

# O

F C

LOSI

NG

Rank Chain Net Loss

1 Subway -836

2 Pizza Hut -167

3 McDonald's -119

4 Applebee's Neighborhood Grill & Bar -76

5 Church's Chicken -61

6 Joe's Crab Shack -60

7 Sam's Cafe (Walmart stores) -59

8 KFC -58

9 Papa Murphy's Take 'N' Bake Pizza -54

10 Dairy Queen -52

11 Noodles & Company -52

12 Tim Hortons -50

13 Bruegger's Bagels -41

14 Romano's Macaroni Grill -37

15 Long John Silver's -33

16 TGI Fridays -31

17 Pollo Tropical -31

18 Bob Evans Restaurants -28

19 Famous Dave's -27

20 Ruby Tuesday -21

Net Loss =-1,893 for 20 brands

New Units =+ 3,225 for 20 Brands Previously Shown Brands

Site Selection

Criteria

43

Homerun Real Estate

Convenience

High visibility / Strong signageHigh Traffic counts

Excellent Access

Ample Parking

7 FRANCHISE QSRs EXPANDING IN TN

ASK FOR PRESENTATION FROM RURAL DEVELOPMENT CONFERENCE

"Lacy and her team at Retail Strategies has become a constant resource for our development team. Currently, we leverage their insights and relationships along with their tech savvy approach and local market knowledge. This give us the advantage we need across a number of difficult markets.“

-Brian L. Peterson, Director of Real Estate & Development, FOURTEEN FOODS, Diary Queen Franchisee with 200+ units

Retail in Athens, TN

Community Input & Survey

Get to Know Your Community:

A local survey using social media to target what you wish to know.

• Report was conducted March 2019

• This report will contains 1,948 responses.

• 5 Questions asked to residents of McMinn County TN via Facebook

• A prize was sent to a randomly selected local voter (beats headphones)

Used by some of the biggest names in real estate.

47

Discover

State of Tennessee

Population 6.65 Million

Athens, TN

Population 14,173

Prepared for Athens_TN by Retail Strategies

48

Discover: Drive Time & Radius

Prepared for Athens_TN by Retail Strategies * Demographics pulled from city center as identified by internal GIS

3-Mile

Radius

5-Mile

Radius

10-Mile

Radius

5-Minute Drive

Time

10-Minute

Drive Time

15-Minute Drive

Time

Current Year Estimated

Population15,208 22,660 43,439 8,804 19,593 28,753

Number of Households 6,341 9,202 17,402 3,650 8,074 11,628

Projected Annual Growth (5 YR) 4.76% 4.51% 3.78% 3.06% 4.64% 4.25%

Median Income $32,207 $37,823 $39,498 $22,940 $36,537 $39,579

Average Age 40.1 40.6 41.3 40.2 40.4 40.9

Average Home Value $157,779 $167,398 $170,797 $118,155 $166,854 $168,838

% Bachelor's Degree 20% 19% 15% 9% 21% 18%

Daytime Population 24,448 28,883 44,536 12,638 28,325 33,809

Labor Force 6,570 10,111 19,192 2,004 8,629 12,943

49Prepared for Athens_TN by Retail Strategies

Discover

50

Current Retail Overview


51

People Drive to Athens from a Larger Region to Shop

Mobile Data Collection

The location tracked was

Athens Walmart

for the time period of

November 2016

to

November 2017


This mobile tracking service

uses data collected from cell

phone users who enable

location services. By drawing a

polygon around a specific

business or location we are

able to gather valuable data

about the customer base that

has visited the location. This

tool allows us to see where

customers are coming from to

shop in your market. This

information is used to optimize

your trade area, analyze

business locations, compare

frequency of visitors, and assist

retailers in site selection. This

is intended to support the trade

area but does not solely define

the trade area.

52

Customized Trade Area

Discover: Custom Trade Area


Each retailer has a specific formula of market

criteria they use to determine if they will have a

profitable store. Understanding your trade area is

extremely important because it sets the

parameters for measuring demographic criteria

and spending potential sought by retailers.

Municipal boundaries, radius rings, and drive times

are a start to evaluating this information. However,

these predefined boundaries are unable to take

into account the unique aspects affecting the

pulling power and local geography of your

community. For these reasons, a customized trade

area is the next step to analyzing a market.

A trade area is the geographic area from which a

community attracts the majority of its customers.

We define your primary trade area by the base of

consumers likely to shop and eat in the market at

least once a month. Your primary trade area has

been created by combining mobile tracking data

with other factors such as: current retail mix in your

community, traffic patterns, destination attractions,

and proximity to competing markets.

The time and distance consumers are willing to

travel to shop is not “one size fits all.” Retailers will

analyze trade areas differently by accounting for

existing store locations, competition within their

retail category, and convenience.

53

Our Research


100,5032018 Estimated Population

Custom Trade Area

Discover: Custom Trade Area for Athens, TN

42average female age

40average male age

3.8% projected growth rate

2017-2022

104,357projected 2022 population

54

Respondents from McMinn County, TN

1,948 Votes from 546 Voters

Majority female age 18-24

March 2019

Demographic of Respondent on Crowdsourcing Survey

Summary of Top Requests

Top 15 Brands

Top Brands Not Likely

Each retailer has a specific formula of market

criteria they use to determine if they will have a

profitable store. Most retailers report to investors

which drives decisions on new store expansion.

Due to the current expansion plans and site

selection criteria not matching, it is unlikely these

three brands will open in Athens in the near future

unless something changes with the brand on a

national level.

Retail Strategies has been hired by the City of

Athens to proactively recruit retailers and

restaurants. The feedback from this report will

help Retail Strategies when marketing to these

brands. The demand is clear from the shopping

trade area that the brands would be supported.

When asked

“How would you

rank Athens shopping

and dining options

from 1/10”

the average ranking

was 5.34/10

What may NOT surprise you is that consumers from Athens are driving to Nashville, Knoxville and Chattanooga to shop.

What MAY surprise you, is the low ranking people gave for local shopping and dining options. The citizens ranked Athens at a 5.34 for shopping and dining options on a scale of 1-10.

Let’s compare Athens retail shopping options by category to other similar retail nodes based on 10 minute drive times in Walmart Supercenter.Analysis from 500 national brands

59

Discover: Peer Analysis


City StateResidential

Population

Daytime

Population

Median HH

IncomeMarket Supply

Athens TN 22,219 30,333 $36,537 $671,365,049

Douglas GA 21,910 16,732 $34,339 $683,527,260

Wilkesboro NC 21,830 17,822 $34,757 $667,613,258

Dublin GA 22,411 17,148 $33,876 $653,644,576

Forest City NC 22,334 13,791 $34,284 $524,871,030

Waycross GA 23,148 14,907 $32,648 $463,860,686

Tifton GA 27,197 44,711 38,597 $1,015,526,699

Retail Node Comparison Report – 10 Minute Drive

Time

60

Discover: Peer Analysis


4

2

12

1 1

5

8

34

5

1

22

10

6

2

15

1 1

5

11

3

6 5

1

26

2

1

Peer Report by CategoryAmong the 500 national brands, this report suggests Athens can support more retail stores.

Athens Peer Average

2 Clothing 3 Electronics 3 General

Merchandise

2 Hardware

& Garden 4 Restaurants

4 Grocery

1 Shoe Store

Although Athens is only 4 restaurants

short compared to other similar retail

nodes,

The Food and Drink category received

54% of requests for this report.

This is very high compared to the

national median of 25% for the Food

and Drink category.

Number One Requested Restaurant

Other requested

restaurant brands

mentioned repeatedly

63

When asked

“Do you leave Athens to shop and eat? If yes where?”

1. Cleveland

2. Chattanooga

3. Knoxville

When asked

“What goods and services are not currently provided in Athens that you would like to see?”

The most popular answer was, kid's/children activities.

Other answers included: more restaurants, entertainment concepts, and clothing stores.

65

Discover: Consumer Demand & Supply


Customized Retail Category GAP Analysis

$4,546,264

$8,483,424

$8,699,441

$9,144,308

$9,367,702

$10,242,621

$10,250,912

$11,572,065

$15,728,817

$19,400,085

Jewelry, Luggage & Leather Goods Stores

Sporting Goods, Hobby, & Musical Instrument Stores

Health & Personal Care Stores

Shoe Stores

Automotive Parts, Accessories, & Tire Stores

Full-Service Restaurants

Beer, Wine & Liquor Stores

Other General Merchandise Stores

Furniture Stores

Building Material & Supplies Dealers

Top Requested Brands

When asked to name a business or entertainment experience needed downtown, the most popular response was:

skating rink

arcade

mini golf

laser tag

children related events

We started in 2011, when we saw communities who needed a retail advocate, someone who understood real estate and could negotiate connecting retailers and brokers. We now serve over 200 communities, maintaining a 5 client to 1 employee ratio.

69

11 RS TN Partners Athens

Bartlett

Cookeville

East Ridge

Johnson City

Lebanon

Martin

Oak Ridge Economic Dev.

Portland

Pigeon Forge

Tullahoma

70

Retail Strategies was founded in 2011 to assist communities seeking economic and retail growth.

Retail Strategies exists to give communities across the United States an advantage in attracting businesses.

Our mission is to provide the real estate expertise, tools and human effort that position deserving towns as alluring locations for national businesses.

With confidence, we pursue this mission by delivering unparalleled customer service as a unified team with unmatched real estate expertise.

Partnerships

JOHNSON CITY, TN- Population of 66,000

$38MM Annual Sales and 200 jobs from First Watch, Captain D’s, Five Below, Freddy’s Frozen

Custard & Steakburgers, East Coast Wings & Grill, Publix, Maple Street Biscuit Company,

Panda Express, Jo Ann Fabrics & Crafts, Petro’s Chili & Chips

www.retailstrategies.com/webinar/

https://www.retailstrategies.com/webinar/

Rationale for

Investment

Location of

Investor

Size of

Investment

Source of

Investment

Make a

Difference

Make a

Difference

Make a

Profit

Profit / Tax

Benefits

Primarily

Local to OZ

Primarily

National

Local or

National

Local or

National

Varies by

Community

Varies by

Investor

Primarily

Large $

TBD

Varies by

Community

Likely Not

Capital Gains

Varies

Capital Gains

Location

Impact

Opportunity

Tax Benefit

OPPORTUNITY ZONES

74

Discount

Rose’sBargain Hunt

Dirt CheapOllie’s Bargain Outlet

Dollar General Family Dollar

75

Other

Farmers FurniturePetSense

Planet FitnessHarbor Freight

Workout Anytime

76

TN Expanding Brands

MARTIN, TENNESSEE

Martin, Tennessee was quickly identified as a prospective city for Farmers Furniture. Our team worked with the Director of Economic and Community Development for Martin, TN,. Attempts to lease out this shopping center had been made before with a previous owner to no avail. The day that a buyer purchased the shopping center Retail Strategies had him introduced to the Farmers Furniture broker. After 5 months of deliberation the parties came to an agreement and executed a lease. Farmers Furniture opened fall of 2017.

Your successes grow from partnerships.Estimated Economic

Impact

$3MSales Estimate

$65,000 Local Sales Tax

Collection

115Estimated Job Creation

Tentative: RETAIL ACADEMY - JULY 22, 2019 NASHVILLE

APPLICATIONS WILL OPEN END OF APRIL

It's not just about what we are going to

give to you, it's about what we are going to

build together.

We need you to be a part of that journey.

~ Robert Jolly, CEO

Retail Strategies

retail IS economic

development

invest time &

resources in

retail

Retail’s Impact1 in 4 jobs are retail

Source:National Retail Federation

Source:National Retail Federation

Why Should a Municipality Invest Resources in Retail?

Retail builds on retail. Retail economic impact adds up quickly. Retail attracts the workforce that attracts the primary jobs. Retail influences executives looking to locate their company in your community. Retail enhances quality of life that brings your children home.

Retail builds tax base. --- Retail adds jobs from entry level to managerial. --- Retail builds communities.

September 12 – 13, 2018| Franklin, TN

Within the Retail Academy participant communities, the June 2017 – June 2018 economic impact has created

576

new jobs

$1.7M

local tax revenue

$4.5M

state tax revenue

AlamoAshland CityBolivarBrownsvilleCarthageCaryvilleCollinwoodCovingtonDresdenElizabethtonErinErwinGainesboroHohenwaldHumboldtHuntingdonHuntsvilleJamestownJellico

Kingston SpringsLafayetteLebanonLexingtonLindenLivingstonLobelvilleMaynardvilleMcKenzieMountain CityNewportOneidaParkers CrossroadsParsonsPegramPikevillePleasant ViewRipleyRutledge

SelmerSmithvilleSneedvilleSouth PittsburgSpartaSpencerSpring CityTiptonvilleTracy CityTrentonUnicoiWartburgWaynesboroWhitwellWoodbury

56 Retail Academy Communities 2016-2017

RE

TAIL

AC

AD

EM

Y C

LAS

S O

F 2

01

8

RA 101AlamoBolivarDicksonDecaturDunlapDyersburgGreenevilleHenderson Humboldt JasperJefferson City LoudonMcMinnvilleMosheimPortlandPulaskiSomervilleWhite Bluff

RA 201AthensCheatham Co.ErinErwinJamestownLexingtonMaynardvilleMcKenzieMountain CityRipleySpring CityTracy City

Tullahoma

WaynesboroWhitwell

Sammie Arnold

Brooxie Carlton

Logan McCoy

TN Department of Economic & Community Development

Kim DentonTCED Director, CISUT Institute for Public Service

Kim Denton serves as the Tennessee Certified Economic Developer (TCED) Director for the University of Tennessee Center for Industrial Services. The TCED Program provides quality training, continuing education and professional development opportunities for economic and community development practitioners and community leaders.

Stephen SurlesSenior Manager, Global BusinessTennessee Valley Authority, TVA

Stephen Surles oversees management of the regional development and technical services team to ensure all goals meet or exceed agency standards throughout the seven-state TVA service area. These goals include assisting prospective and existing industries, facilitating financial services and helping communities support and grow local businesses. His regional development team also works with TVA partners to implement community preparedness programs, deliver resources and technical assistance and coordinate TVA’s marketing and business development efforts.

This event is recognized by the

International Economic Development

Council (IEDC) as a professional

development event that counts towards

the recertification of Certified

Economic Developers (CEcDs).

Terry BobrowskiExecutive DirectorEast Tennessee Development District

Chris CraigExecutive DirectorFirst Tennessee Development District

Michael SkipperExecutive DirectorGreater Nashville Regional Council

Ralph MooreExecutive DirectorMemphis Area Association of Governments

John BucyExecutive DirectorNorthwest Tennessee Development District

Jerry MansfieldExecutive DirectorSouth Central Tennessee Development District

Beth JonesExecutive DirectorSoutheast Tennessee Development District

Joe BarkerExecutive DirectorSouthwest Tennessee Development District

Mark FarleyExecutive DirectorUpper Cumberland Development District

103

Q&A

120 18th Street South, Suite 120, Birmingham, AL 35233 205.314.0386 retailstrategies.com

tennessee retail academy partners€¦ · 14 chipotle mexican grill $ 4,397 15 applebee's...

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