tekes signaalisession alustus
TRANSCRIPT
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Signaalisessio 5.11.2010
Kari Ryynänen
11-2010DM #724161
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Introduction A great number of megatrends and changes are currently shaping
the global business landscape and also the global software ecosystem.
Timescale and scope of this document and session is changes in the global software ecosystem in the following decade, that is until year 2020.
Purpose of this document and session is to provide information as a base for discussions for actions to be taken. We don’t try to present any potential business scenarios, visions, exact technological roadmaps, key technologies nor precise changes.
If reacted correctly, both megatrends and changes as well early adoption of emerging technologies provide us huge business potential and competitive advantage in the following years.
Anyhow, all stakeholders must be prepared for radical changes in their thinking and ways of working.
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Part 1: Some identified changes in the global software ecosystem
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Määritelmiä Megatrendi: Megatrendillä (puhutaan myös mm. kehityksen suurista
aalloista tai linjoista) tarkoitetaan yleensä sellaista ilmiötä tai ilmiökokonaisuutta, jolla voidaan nähdä olevan yleinen jo toteutuneen kehityksen perusteella tunnistettavissa oleva suunta ja jonka uskotaan jatkuvan samansuuntaisesti myös tulevaisuudessa
Change driver: Muutosvoima, merkittävä (yksittäinen) muutos. Signal: (Heikko) signaali on merkki asioista, tapahtumista jne., joista
voi tulevaisuudessa tulla jotain merkittävää ja suurta eli trendejä tai peräti megatrendejä tai muutosvoimia.
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Some megatrends and change drivers
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Open Everything
Cloud Computing
Evolving Software Platforms
Global Software
Development and Global Sourcing
Rise of BRIC and Other Developing Countries
Global War of Talents
New Needs Requires New
Solutions
Understanding Customers
and Ecosystems
Sustainable Development
and Green Software
Evolution of Business
Models and Revenue
Socializing and Collaborating
Software Development
Mobility and Connectivity in Digital Society
Megatrend-follow
Everything is Programmable
Change driver-understand
Change driver-react
Emerging technologies
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Ageing
Consumerization of IT
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Megatrends – enabling and challenging
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Rise of BRIC and Other Developing Countries
Global War of Talents
Sustainable Development
and Green Software
Both in India and China technology, services and outsourcing, but also local markets, are growing rapidly due to huge GDP growth. Russia and Brazil and many developing countries are on their own ways towards the same target with already existing markets for early adaptors or even mainstream customers.
Talented young scientists, designers, and entrepreneurs can be attracted anywhere by the right incentives, professional opportunities, and creative ambiance. How we can attractive, if we are compared with Silicon Valley, Singapore, Bangalore and other innovation hotspots?
Sustainable development and demand for green ICT includes demand for green software. How your software can be green?
Consumerization of IT
The trend in many technologies is that new technology first emerges in the consumer markets and then spreads into business; good examples are instant messaging, video games, different new gadgets and social environments. In the big picture this should also be seen as shift of IT and software innovations from enterprises and other companies to homes and individuals.
Ageing
The world's population is ageing. It is happening because we live longer, and because there will be relatively more elderly than youths the next decades. Finland and Japan will phase this first, other industrialized countries follow us after 5 years. Is there need for solutions, talents or competences?
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Change drivers – react immediately
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Open Everything
Cloud Computing
Evolving Software Platforms
Global Software
Development and Global Sourcing
Evolution of Business
Models and Revenue
Open source and other open innovations and settings like open leadership changes the way how software creates income for a company. How a company can benefit from open innovation models without giving away the full control of their innovation? Share and utilize.
Platforms, architectures, standard interfaces and application stores can be used as cost and time effective base when implementing and delivering software solutions to business processes and off-the-shelf products to companies and consumers.
Cloud computing (virtual infrastructures, everything as service, XaaS) changes the way software is delivered and used, but also transforms revenue of the software work from traditional licensing.
Collaborative, shared software development process within a value net and simultaneous outsourcing and insourcing of competencies and technologies changes the way you create your software.
Instead of traditional software business model (licence fee+local client-server installation) there are many possible choices for delivery and service models, as well for revenue models. Models based on advertising and subscription are reality also within software industry, as well is viral business.
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What about these – understand them
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Socializing and Collaborating
Software Development
Everything is Programmable
Understanding Customers
and Ecosystems
Evolution from vendor-centric collaboration towards user and community centric collaboration will give pressure to new software development paradigmas like agile methods. Software development is also both individualisating and socializing the same time, how does it fit into your processes and competences?
Ubiquitous and embedded systems are increasingly used everywhere. More and more services, products, solutions and processes are dependent of software.
Understanding the big issues (society, globalization, markets, ecosystems) and end users (consumers, organizations and their employees) instead of technology might give you a clear business advantage. How do you know your customers culture or religion, and society they are living in? What about customer experience?
Mobility and Connectivity in Digital Society
Investments and innovations to reduce digital divide between industrialized and developing countries, but also within countries, companies and even between individuals are growing rapidly. And fast growing adoption of mobile devices and need for content will have a significant impact on the software industry as need of new solutions.
New Needs Requires New
Solutions
Good business innovations are rarely technological innovations. They are often business or value model or process innovations with hi-tech backbone (software, communication, media content), and they are often planned to mass markets. SME’s can challenge conventional ways of doing business.
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Some emerging technologies – your bet?
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Tasks Ei yksittäisen signaalin tai teknologian näkökulmaa (tällä kertaa)! Keskustelkaa paikkakunnittain seuraavista aiheista:
• Ovatko esitetyt muutokset mielestänne relevantteja?
• Oletteko tunnistaneet muita merkittäviä muutoksia?
• Ovatko esitetyt muutokset mielestänne kestäviä: onko merkkejä, että näistä muutoksista tulee ns vallitsevia tekijöitä liiketoimintaympäristössänne?
Valitkaa esitetyistä muutoksista muutama liiketoimintanne kannalta merkityksellisin• Kuinka merkityksellisimmät muutokset vaikuttavat liiketoimintaanne?
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Part 2: Scenarios
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Määritelmä Scenario: Skenaario on tulevaisuudenkuva tai toisen määritelmän
mukaan tulevaisuuden käsikirjoitus. Skenaariot ovat usein moniselitteisiä ja epätäsmällisiä, mutta myös joustavia, kuvailevia ja laaja-alaisia tulevaisuudenkuvia vaihtoehtoisista tulevaisuuksista. Tulevaisuus ei kuitenkaan useimmiten ole deterministisesti toteutuva todellisuutena vaan usean erilaisen vaihtoehtoisen tulevaisuudentilan kombinaatio.
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Tasks Luokaa keskustelemalla paikkakunnalla Suomen ohjelmistoalalle
kaksi skenaariota, jossa olette reagoineet merkittävimmiksi valitsemiinne muutosvoimiin.• Antakaa skenaariolle kuvaava nimi.
• Kyseenalaistakaa vakiintuneet perususkomuksenne!
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Part 3: Summary
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Mitä sitten? Tavoitteena ei ollut absoluuttisen totuuden saaminen alamme
tulevaisuudesta, vaan kerätä näkemyksiä eteenpäin jalostettaviksi. Eli haluamme avata uusia päätöksenteon suuntia ja opastaa
(itseämme) havaitsemaan sellaisiakin mahdollisuuksia, jotka ovat jääneet meiltä huomaamatta.
2010• Software 20/20 seminaari + LinkedIn
• TBD: Finpron ja Tekesin kokoamien signaalien analysointi
• Tekesin oma strategiatyö
2011• TBD: skenaarioiden purkaminen toimenpidekokonaisuuksiksi
• TBD: toimenpiteet merkityksellisimpiin muutoksiin reagoimiseksi
• TBD: ennakointityö ja heikkojen signaalien kokoaminen ja jalostaminen
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Contact information
Verso-Vertical Software Solutions 2006-2010: www.tekes.fi/verso Tekes-Finnish Funding Agency for Technology and Innovation :
www.tekes.fi
Mr Kari Ryynänen
Program manager, Senior Advisor
+358-40-580 5167
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