technology_sample

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Technology AssessmentTechnology Assessment

Superfactory Excellence Program™Superfactory Excellence Program™www.superfactory.comwww.superfactory.com


OutlineOutline

Management of TechnologyManagement of Technology Sociotechnical ChangeSociotechnical Change Technology PlanningTechnology Planning Technology ForecastingTechnology Forecasting Managing ForecastingManaging Forecasting Methods and IssuesMethods and Issues LifecyclesLifecycles MonitoringMonitoring Tools for TrendingTools for Trending Extrapolating Technological TrendsExtrapolating Technological Trends Expert OpinionExpert Opinion


Result of Technology’s Increasing Result of Technology’s Increasing SignificanceSignificance

Technology assessmentTechnology assessment originally driven by concern regarding the negative originally driven by concern regarding the negative

effects of technology on the environment and effects of technology on the environment and society. society.

now much more encompassing now much more encompassing Technology forecastingTechnology forecasting

assessment requires anticipation, therefore a need assessment requires anticipation, therefore a need for technology forecasting.for technology forecasting.


Product Life Cycle

Commercial launch

Years from Launch

Innovation Growth MaturityDecline

Profit

Sales Volume

MaximumProfit

MaximumSales Volume

Withdrawn from

marketSales

Revenue(x1,000,000)

Profit Revenue

(x100,000)

1

2

3

4

1

2

3

4


Impact/Technology Assessment Impact/Technology Assessment

It is the systematic study of the effects on society, that may It is the systematic study of the effects on society, that may occur when a technology is introduced, extended, or modified, occur when a technology is introduced, extended, or modified, with emphasis on the impacts that are unintended, indirect, or with emphasis on the impacts that are unintended, indirect, or delayed.delayed. (Joseph Coates, 1976) (Joseph Coates, 1976)

It should be viewed by technology managers as professional It should be viewed by technology managers as professional obligation and social responsibilityobligation and social responsibility

It’s results form the “big picture” concerns that should shape It’s results form the “big picture” concerns that should shape the context of technological planningthe context of technological planning


Forecasting-Technology Management Forecasting-Technology Management RelationshipRelationship

Forecasting is intended to bring information to the technology Forecasting is intended to bring information to the technology management processmanagement process Predicts possible technological changes that might affect Predicts possible technological changes that might affect

corporate goalscorporate goals Provides useful information to decision makersProvides useful information to decision makers

The shape and format of forecasting are determined by The shape and format of forecasting are determined by Targeted audience (nation, organization, business unit, group Targeted audience (nation, organization, business unit, group

of units…)of units…) Audience goalsAudience goals


Stages of Technological InnovationStages of Technological Innovation

Stage 3: VerificationStage 3: Verification laboratory experiment that confirms the validity of the laboratory experiment that confirms the validity of the

proposed theory or design conceptproposed theory or design concept Stage 4: Laboratory DemonstrationStage 4: Laboratory Demonstration

first primitive model of the technology concept in a useful first primitive model of the technology concept in a useful formform

Stage 5: Field TrialStage 5: Field Trial full-scale approach or field trial that ultimately becomes full-scale approach or field trial that ultimately becomes

the prototype or pilot-plantthe prototype or pilot-plant


Competitive Technology Lifecycle

Time

Ex: Vacuum tubes v. transistors : Sail v. steamships

Traditional technology

Emergent technology


Fisher-Pry ModelFisher-Pry Model

Substitution modelSubstitution model Symmetrical around the 50% penetration point Symmetrical around the 50% penetration point y(t) = 1/(1 + ey(t) = 1/(1 + e-b(t-a)-b(t-a)))

y(t)y(t) = fraction of the potential market served by the new = fraction of the potential market served by the new technology at time technology at time tt

a a = the time the new technology reaches 50% of the total = the time the new technology reaches 50% of the total marketmarket

b b = rate of adoption = rate of adoption


Technological Description/ForesightTechnological Description/Foresight

Technology description is a subset of technology foresightTechnology description is a subset of technology foresight Technology foresight involves predicting and preparing for Technology foresight involves predicting and preparing for

the opportunities and challenges that new technologies the opportunities and challenges that new technologies offeroffer

Noted authors Dr. van Wyk & Dr. Jonathan LittonNoted authors Dr. van Wyk & Dr. Jonathan Litton


Choosing Experts Opinion Capture Choosing Experts Opinion Capture TechniqueTechnique

Six factors are to consider in choosing a technique to Six factors are to consider in choosing a technique to capture experts opinion (Nelms and Porter, 1985):capture experts opinion (Nelms and Porter, 1985):1.1. Logistics: resources largely determine the methodLogistics: resources largely determine the method2.2. Feedback: minimizing delay between successive feedback is Feedback: minimizing delay between successive feedback is

desirabledesirable3.3. Communication medium: is a function of access to experts, Communication medium: is a function of access to experts,

resources, and timeresources, and time