technology for a better society an scge model integrating the energy system and the regional economy...
TRANSCRIPT
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Technology for a better society
AN SCGE MODEL INTEGRATINGTHE ENERGY SYSTEM ANDTHE REGIONAL ECONOMY
Ruud Egging24 Oct 2013
CREE meets CenSES
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Technology for a better society
• Regional energy balance and supply costs/prices• Impact (energy-intensive) industry output, goods
prices and consumption levels• economic activity & growth, commodity prices &
demand• Integrated/consistent projections for energy supply
and demand (rel. to other models)
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Insights we want from RegPol SCGE
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Technology for a better society
1. Energy systems model (TIMES-Norway)2. National macroeconomic model (MODDAG/MSG)3. Economic-demographic single-region model
(PANDA)4. SCGE for regional economies and relations
between economy and energy system (*)
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RegPol Models
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Technology for a better society 4
• Regional analysis• Spatial-Equilibrium setting• Bridge between TIMES and PANDA
• Impact on value creation, energy balance & security, energy prices by region, industry type
Role of SCGE in RegPol
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Technology for a better society
• 7+sokkel regions (later 19 counties + 1)• Enough sector detail to capture interactions,
substitution and impact of energy system:• multiple fuels and energy carriers• production (sectors) & conversion technologies, incl.
substitution and efficiency• transportation (infra: use of capital, or endowment)• consumption• government
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Multi-Regional Multi-Sector Multi-Period
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Technology for a better society
• Eight Norwegian regions (incl. Sokkel)
• One outside world
• Eventually: 19 Fylke + Sokkel + surrounding countries
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Prototype - Regions
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Technology for a better society
• Reflect energy carrier production and conversion:• OIL, GAS• Oil and natural gas (or separate, so that e.g. easier
to reflect different developments in prod levels?)• ELE• Electricity (All inclusive Hydro plus newly installed
renewables as scenario assumptions?)• Refineries?
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Production Sectors - Energy
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Technology for a better society
• Focus on energy intensive sectors• Construction (infra)• Energy intensive industries, incl. refining• Manufacturing other• Services
• Eventually: separate refineries, and more detail in classes of energy intensiveness?
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Production Sectors Other
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Technology for a better society 9
• Want to reflect energy transport, general trade and pax transport (el-cars, biofuels..)• electricity• oil/gas• freight• passengers
Transport and trade
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Technology for a better society 10
• Trade, also foreign trade, on a regional level, especially for energy
• Can consider an energy trader using energy transport services and needing capital and other input factors to reflect infrastructure (capacity needs)
• Pax transport via consumer demand
Transport and Trade
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Technology for a better society 11
• Is not likely to be a main driver of our model in itself
• But need to be able to reflect price, tax & other measures and incentives impact on consumption changes
Household Consumption
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Technology for a better society 12
• Regional and National• Measures, regulations, taxes, incentives• Regional: projects/business cases
Governments
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Technology for a better society 13
• Want to capture Energy Exports and Imports county specific:• FIN; RUS; SWE, DK, DEU, NLD, UKD, ROW…?
• Levels/Balances:• Exogenous net import/export level?
Modeling Rest of the World
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Technology for a better society 14
• Want to reflect daily load and seasonal variation in supply and demand
• Eventually dynamic model with long-term horizon
Time periods
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Technology for a better society 15
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION