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Research Daily –Technical Chart Outlook

30.06.2008

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Technical Chart OutlookGlobal Commodities

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Overview

The CRB Index has already tested its next resistance seen at 466 / 467.Further upside is likely.

The 40-Commodities Model short-term reading improved to 65.0% (upfrom 62.5%) on a scale from 0% (max bearish) to 100% (max bullish).The medium-term model is bullish at 72.5% (down from 73.3%). Thelong-term model remains bullish at 80% (up from 79.2%). The CompositeModel shows a reading of 70% (up from 68.9%).

The Big-5 Commodities Long/Short Model

LONG

SHORT


30.06.2008

Reuters/Jefferies CRBIndex - PRICEINDEX

VOM6/27/2007 BIS6/27/2008 TAEGLICH

JUN JUL AUG SEP OKT NOV DEZ JAN FEB MAR APR MAI JUN

280

300

320

340

360

380

400

420

440

460

480

HOCH 464.402 6/27/2008 TIEF299.772 8/21/2007 SCHLUSS464.402 Source:Thomson Datastream

Reuters/Jefferies CRBIndex - PRICEINDEX

VOM6/27/1993 BIS6/27/2008MONATL

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Source:ThomsonDatastream

The CRB INDEX and the 40-COMMODITIES MODELCommodity Research Bureau Index (CRB Index) and 40 Commodities Models

CRB Index monthly chart CRB Index daily chart

COMMODITY MODEL ST SHORT-TERM MT MEDIUM TERM LT LONG-TERMPRICES POS SCORE ST MOM 13D AVG 21D AVG SCORE MT MOM 34D AVG 55D AVG SCORE LT MOM 89D AVG 144D AVG

ALUMINIUM UP 3 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 3 1 1 1COFFEE 'C' UP 3 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 3 1 1 1GOLD UP * 3 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 3 1 1 1PALLADIUM UP 3 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 3 1 1 1ROBUSTA COFFEE UP 3 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 3 1 1 1SILVER UP * 3 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 2 1 0 1ALLOY STEEL UP 3 1 1 1 2 0 1 1 3 1 1 1HG COPPER UP 3 1 1 1 2 0 1 1 3 1 1 1TIN UP 3 1 1 1 2 0 1 1 3 1 1 1BRENT CRUDE OIL UP * 2 0 1 1 3 1 1 1 3 1 1 1COCOA UP 2 0 1 1 3 1 1 1 3 1 1 1CORN UP 2 0 1 1 3 1 1 1 3 1 1 1COTTON UP 2 0 1 1 3 1 1 1 3 1 1 1LIGHT CRUDE OIL UP * 2 0 1 1 3 1 1 1 3 1 1 1LIVE CATTLE UP 2 0 1 1 3 1 1 1 3 1 1 1NATURAL GAS UP 2 0 1 1 3 1 1 1 3 1 1 1OATS UP 2 0 1 1 3 1 1 1 3 1 1 1SOYABEAN MEAL UP 2 0 1 1 3 1 1 1 3 1 1 1SOYABEAN OIL UP 2 0 1 1 3 1 1 1 3 1 1 1SOYABEANS UP 2 0 1 1 3 1 1 1 3 1 1 1WHITE SUGAR UP 2 0 1 1 3 1 1 1 3 1 1 1YELLOW MAIZ UP 2 0 1 1 3 1 1 1 3 1 1 1GAS OIL UP * 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 1 3 1 1 1GASOLINE UP * 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 1 3 1 1 1HEATING OIL UP * 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 1 3 1 1 1PLATINUM UP * 2 0 1 1 2 1 0 1 3 1 1 1SUGAR #14 UP 2 0 1 1 3 1 1 1 1 1 0 0CBT-WHEAT CONT. UP 2 0 1 1 3 1 1 1 0 0 0 0FEEDER CATTLE UP 2 1 1 0 2 1 0 1 2 0 1 1SUNFLOWER SEED FLAT 1 0 0 1 3 1 1 1 2 0 1 1WSTERN LUMBER FLAT 1 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 1ZINC FLAT * 3 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0LUMBER FUTURE FLAT * 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 3 1 1 1PORK BELLIES FLAT 2 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0LEAN HOGS DOWN 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 1 1 1SCRAP STEEL DOWN * 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 1 1 1LEAD DOWN 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0ORANGE JUICE DOWN 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0ROUGH RICE DOWN 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 0 1NICKEL DOWN 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

70.0% 65.0% (0% max bearish, 100% max bullish.) 72.5% (0% max bearish, 100% max bullish.) 80.0% (0% max bearish, 100% max bullish.)

UP 29 + 16 32 30 + 26 29 32 + 32 31 33DOWN 6 - 24 8 10 - 14 11 8 - 8 9 7

FLAT 5 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 4040 + 40% 80% 75% + 65% 73% 80% + 80% 78% 83%

- 60% 20% 25% - 35% 28% 20% - 20% 23% 18%100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

CRB in ‚buying climax‘.

Uptrend remains intact and has already testednext res at 466 / 467.

The trend and momentum indications of 40 commodities


30.06.2008

DJ AIG-Future Commodity Index - RETURN IND.(OFCL)


MAR APR MAI JUN

390

400

410

420

430

440

450

460

470

HOCH 466.438 6/27/2008TIEF396.030 4/1/2008SCHLUSS466.438 Source:Thomson Datastream

DJ AIG-AgricultureSub Index - RETURN IND.(OFCL)


DEZ JAN FEB MAR APR MAI JUN

155

160

165

170

175

180

185

190

195

200

205

HOCH 201.851 3/3/2008 TIEF159.79712/28/2007 SCHLUSS193.919 Source:Thomson Datastream

DJ AIG-Energy Index - RETURN IND.(OFCL)

VOM12/27/2007BIS6/27/2008 TAEGLICH


450

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

850

HOCH 815.928 6/27/2008TIEF 494.705 1/23/2008 SCHLUSS815.928 Source:ThomsonDatastream

DJ AIG-Grains Index - RETURN IND.(OFCL)



135

140

145

150

155

160

165

170

175

180

HOCH 179.359 6/26/2008TIEF137.627 12/31/2007 SCHLUSS178.022 Source:Thomson Datastream

DJ AIG-IndustrialMetals Index - RETURN IND.(OFCL)



360

380

400

420

440

460

480

500

HOCH 486.192 3/5/2008 TIEF375.3281/23/2008SCHLUSS431.355 Source:Thomson Datastream

DJ AIG-Livestock Index - RETURN IND.(OFCL)

VOM12/27/2007BIS6/27/2008 TAEGLICH


94

96

98

100

102

104

106

108

110

112

114

116

HOCH 114.317 12/27/2007 TIEF95.501 4/2/2008 SCHLUSS106.285 Source:ThomsonDatastream

DJ AIG-PetroleumIndex - RETURN IND.(OFCL)



800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400


DJ AIG-Precious Metals Index - RETURN IND.(OFCL)



250

260

270

280

290

300

310

320

330

HOCH 322.970 3/14/2008TIEF258.319 12/27/2007 SCHLUSS292.099 Source:Thomson Datastream

DJ AIG-Softs Index - RETURN IND.(OFCL)



100

105

110

115

120

125

130

135

140

145

150

155


Composite Index

Agriculture IndexEnergy Index

Grains IndexIndustrials Index

Livestock Index

Petroleum IndexPrecious Metals Index Softs Index

466.44 0.16%

193.92 -0.74%815.93 0.14%

106.29 0.76%

431.36 0.58%178.02 -0.75%

1392.41 0.38%292.10 2.08% 121.28 -0.96%


30.06.2008

VOM6/27/2007 BIS6/27/2008


60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

NYM-LIGHTCRUDEOIL CONTINUOUSHLC 142.99 138.61 140.21

Source:Thomson DatastreamVOM6/27/2007 BIS6/27/2008


60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

ICE-BRENTCRUDEOIL CONTINUOUSHLC 142.97 138.99 140.31



1.80

2.00

2.20

2.40

2.60

2.80

3.00

3.20

3.40

3.60

3.80

NYMEX-RBOBGASOLINECONTINUOUSHLC 3.5850 3.4823 3.5012

Source:Thomson Datastream

NYM-LIGHT CRUDE OIL CONTINUOUS140.2

SHORT TERMSCORE (0-3) ST MOM 13DAVG 21DAVG

2 0 1 1

MEDIUM TERMSCORE (0-3) MT MOM 34D AVG 55D AVG

3 1 1 1

LONG TERMSCORE (0-3) LT MOM 810D AVG 144D AVG

3 1 1 1

15 TOTAL SCORE (0-18)LONG OUTPERFORM

ICE-BRENT CRUDE OIL CONTINUOUS140.3


2 0 1 1


3 1 1 1


3 1 1 1


NYMEX-RBOB GASOLINE CONTINUOUS3.501


2 0 1 1


2 0 1 1


3 1 1 1

13 TOTAL SCORE (0-18)LONG NEUTRAL

NYM-LIGHTCRUDEOIL CONTINUOUS- SETT.PRICE- U$/BL

VOM6/26/1998 BIS6/27/2008WOECHENTL

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160


ICE-BRENTCRUDEOIL CONTINUOUS- SETT.PRICE- U$/BL

VOM6/26/1998 BIS6/27/2008 WOECHENTL

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160


Gasoline NYH Reg FOBConvent.UC/GAL


1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350


Model: Long. Position: Long.Breaking out and extending uptrend.

Model: Long. Position: Flat.Buy a break above 3.576.

Model: Long. Position: Long.Resuming uptrend with next res 145 / 150.


30.06.2008

VOM6/27/2007 BIS6/27/2008


1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

NYM-NYHEATINGOIL CONTINUOUS HLC 3.9827 3.8696 3.9066



5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

NYM-NATURAL GASCONTINUOUS- SHLC 13.428 13.187 13.198



180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

CME-LUMBER CONTINUOUSLTDT- SHLC 243.00 240.20 243.00


CME-LUMBER CONTINUOUS- SETT.PRICE- U$/BF


1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500


NYM-NY HEATING OIL CONTINUOUS3.907


2 0 1 1


2 0 1 1


3 1 1 1

13 TOTAL SCORE (0-18)LONG UNDERPERFORM

NYM-NATURAL GAS CONTINUOUS13.2


2 0 1 1


3 1 1 1


3 1 1 1


CME-LUMBER CONTINUOUS LTDT243


1 1 0 0


1 0 0 1


3 1 1 1

8 TOTAL SCORE (0-18)FLAT NEUTRAL

NYM-NYHEATINGOIL CONTINUOUS- SETT.PRICE- U$/GL


1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

0

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50


NYM-NATURAL GASCONTINUOUS- SETT.PRICE- U$/BC


1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16


Model: Long. Position: Flat.Break above 4.0150 need to confirm further upside.

Model: Long. Position: Flat.Momentum turning lower and furtherconsolidation seen. Break above 13.35needed to confirm further strength. Breakbelow 12.60 to trigger further weakness.

Model: Flat. Position: Flat.Trending lower again.


30.06.2008

VOM6/27/2007 BIS6/27/2008


280

300

320

340

360

380

400

420

440

CMX-HIGH GRADECOPPER CONT.- HLC 389.00 381.00 388.40

Source:Thomson DatastreamCMX-ALUMINIUMCONTINUOUS- SETT.PRICE- UC/LB



100

105

110

115

120

125

130

135

140

145

HOCH 143.7500 3/7/2008 TIEF105.0000 1/23/2008 SCHLUSS141.8000 Source:ThomsonDatastreamLME-NickelCashU$/MT- A.M.OFFICIAL



000'S

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

38


CMX-HIGH GRADE COPPER CONT.388.4


3 1 1 1


2 0 1 1


3 1 1 1


CMX-ALUMINIUM CONTINUOUS141.8


3 1 1 1


3 1 1 1


3 1 1 1


LME-Nickel Cash U$/MT 21575


0 0 0 0


0 0 0 0


0 0 0 0

0 TOTAL SCORE (0-18)SHORT UNDERPERFORM

CMX-HIGH GRADECOPPER CONT.- SETT.PRICE- UC/LB


1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400


CMX-ALUMINIUMCONTINUOUS- SETT.PRICE- UC/LB


1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150


LME-Nickel Cash U$/MT- A.M.OFFICIAL


1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

000'S

0

10

20

30

40

50

60


Model: Long. Position: Long.Continuing turnaround and according to model figuresfurther strength can be expected.

Model: Long. Position: Long.Retest of old highs expected.

Model: Short. Position: Flat.Extending downtrend.


30.06.2008

LME-SHGZinc 99.995%Cash U$/MT- A.M.OFFICIAL



1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

HOCH 3815.007/24/2007TIEF1811.50 6/16/2008SCHLUSS1916.50 Source:ThomsonDatastreamLME-Lead 3 Months U$/MT- A.M.OFFICIAL



1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

HOCH 3877.5010/15/2007 TIEF1745.50 6/16/2008 SCHLUSS1819.50 Source:ThomsonDatastreamLME-Tin 99.85%Cash U$/MT- A.M.OFFICIAL



000'S

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26


LME-SHG Zinc 99.995% Cash U$/MT1917


3 1 1 1


0 0 0 0


0 0 0 0

9 TOTAL SCORE (0-18)FLAT UNDERPERFORM

LME-Lead 3 Months U$/MT 1820


1 1 0 0


0 0 0 0


0 0 0 0


LME-Tin 99.85% Cash U$/MT23343


3 1 1 1


2 0 1 1


3 1 1 1


LME-SHGZinc 99.995%Cash U$/MT- A.M.OFFICIAL


1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000


LME-Tin 99.85%Cash U$/MT- A.M.OFFICIAL


1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

000'S

0

5

10

15

20

25

30


Model: Flat. Position: Flat.Downtrend intact but short-term figurespositive. Expect further consolidation /bottom building.

Model: Short. Position: Short.Downtrend intact and further weakness seen.

Model: Long. Position: Long.Continuing turnaround with solid model figures.

LME-Lead 3 Months U$/MT- A.M.OFFICIAL


1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

HOCH 3790.50 10/12/2007 TIEF421.505/19/2000 SCHLUSS1819.50 Source:ThomsonDatastream


30.06.2008

VOM6/27/2007 BIS6/27/2008


1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

CMX-SILVER 5000 OZCONTINUOUS HLC 1766.00 1712.50 1762.00


VOM6/27/2007 BIS6/27/2008


600

650

700

750

800

850

900

950

1000

1050

CMX-GOLD 100 OZCONTINUOUS- SHLC 927.60 910.70 929.30


VOM6/27/2007 BIS6/27/2008


1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2400

NYM-PLATINUMCONTINUOUS- SETTHLC 2085.20 2050.00 2059.10


CMX-GOLD 100 OZ CONTINUOUS929.3


3 1 1 1


3 1 1 1


3 1 1 1


CMX-SILVER 5000 OZ CONTINUOUS1762


3 1 1 1


3 1 1 1


2 1 0 1


NYM-PLATINUM CONTINUOUS2059


2 0 1 1


2 1 0 1


3 1 1 1


CMX-GOLD 100 OZCONTINUOUS- SETT.PRICE- U$/TO


1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100


CMX-SILVER 5000 OZCONTINUOUS- SETT.PRICE- UC/TO


1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200


NYM-PLATINUMCONTINUOUS- SETT.PRICE- U$/TO


1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

HOCH 2176.305/23/2008TIEF336.40 10/30/1998SCHLUSS2059.10 Source:ThomsonDatastream

Model: Long. Position: Enter long.Breaking out of consolidation trianglewith next res at 935.

Model: Long. Position: Flat.Remains in consolidation. Wait forclearer trend indications.

Model: Long. Position: Long.Remains in st consolidation but likely toretest 17.70. Break of to confirmfurther strength.


30.06.2008

NYM-PALLADIUMCONTINUOUS- SETT.PRICE- U$/TO



300

350

400

450

500

550

600

HOCH 585.70 3/3/2008TIEF323.00 8/22/2007 SCHLUSS471.20 Source:ThomsonDatastreamVOM6/27/2007 BIS6/27/2008


500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

CBT-WHEATCONTINUOUS- SETT.PHLC 940.00 890.00 895.50



300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

CBT-CORN CONTINUOUS- SETT.PR HLC 765.00 746.00 754.75


NYM-PALLADIUM CONTINUOUS471.2


3 1 1 1


3 1 1 1


3 1 1 1


CBT-WHEAT CONTINUOUS 895.5


2 0 1 1


3 1 1 1


0 0 0 0


CBT-CORN CONTINUOUS 754.8


2 0 1 1


3 1 1 1


3 1 1 1


NYM-PALLADIUMCONTINUOUS- SETT.PRICE- U$/TO


1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100


CBT-WHEATCONTINUOUS- SETT.PRICE- UC/BW


1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300


CBT-CORN CONTINUOUS- SETT.PRICE- UC/BC


1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800


Model: Long. Position: Long.Resuming upmove with next res at 950.

Model: Long. Position: Flat.Break above 760 to confirm furtherupside. Re-enter long a daily close abovethis level.

Model: Long. Position: Long.Brief halt within new uptrend. Breakabove 476.50 to confirm resumption ofuptrend.


30.06.2008

CBT-ROUGH RICE CONTINUOUS1869


0 0 0 0


0 0 0 0


2 1 0 1


VOM6/27/2007 BIS6/27/2008


700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

CBT-SOYABEANSCONTINUOUS- SETHLC 1593.00 1572.00 1581.50



800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2400

2600

CBT-ROUGH RICECONTINUOUS- SEHLC 1910.00 1826.00 1869.00



8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

CSCE-SUGAR #11 CONTINUOUS- SEHLC 11.90 11.31 11.38


CSCE-SUGAR #11 CONTINUOUSVOL- SETT.PRICE- UC/LB


1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

HOCH 19.26 2/3/2006 TIEF4.334/30/1999 SCHLUSS12.74 Source:ThomsonDatastream

CBT-SOYABEANS CONTINUOUS1582


2 0 1 1


3 1 1 1


3 1 1 1


CSCE-SUGAR #11 CONTINUOUS11.38


2 0 1 1


3 1 1 1


1 1 0 0


CBT-SOYABEANSCONTINUOUS- SETT.PRICE- UC/BS


1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600


Model: Long. Position: Long.Likely to break above resistance at 1600.

Model: Short. Position: Flat.Remains in consolidation with risks ofbreaking below 17.70.

Model: Long. Position: Long.Uptrend seen continuing with 12.20 seenas next resistance.

CBT-ROUGH RICECONTINUOUS- SETT.PRICE- UC/HP

VOM6/26/1998BIS6/27/2008WOECHENTL

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

HOCH 2380.00 4/25/2008TIEF357.00 4/26/2002 SCHLUSS1869.00 Source:ThomsonDatastream


30.06.2008

VOM6/27/2007 BIS6/27/2008


1600

1800

2000

2200

2400

2600

2800

3000

3200

3400

CSCE-COCOACONTINUOUSWVOL- SHLC 3280.00 3250.00 3275.00



100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

CSCE-COFFEE'C' CONTINUOUS- SHLC 151.70 149.00 150.15



100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

NYCE-(FCOJ-1) ORANGEJUICECON HLC 110.00 109.20 109.45


CSCE-COCOA CONTINUOUS 2703


2 0 1 1


3 1 1 1


3 1 1 1


CSCE-COFFEE 'C' CONTINUOUS150.2


3 1 1 1


3 1 1 1


3 1 1 1


NYCE-(FCOJ-1) ORANGE JUICE CONT.109.5


0 0 0 0


1 1 0 0


1 1 0 0

3 TOTAL SCORE (0-18)SHORT NEUTRAL

CSCE-COCOACONTINUOUS- SETT.PRICE- U$/TE


1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500


CSCE-COFFEE'C' CONTINUOUS- SETT.PRICE- UC/LB


1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180


NYCE-(FCOJ-1) ORANGEJUICECONT.- SETT.PRICE- UC/LB


1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220


Model: Long. Position: Long.Extending gains.

Model: Long. Position: Long.Continuing uptrend with next res at 153.

Model: Short. Position: Flat.Likely to continue downtrend and retest lows.


30.06.2008

GoldBullion U$/Troy Ounce

SHORT-TERMSCORE(0-3) STMOM 13DAVG 21DAVG

3 1 1 1

MEDIUMTERMSCORE(0-3) MTMOM 34DAVG 55DAVG

2 0 1 1

LONGTERMSCORE(0-3) LTMOM 89DAVG 144DAVG

2 0 1 1

15 TOTALSCORE(0-18)LONG MODELPOSITION

Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug

0

500

620

630

640

650

660

670

680

690

How the Model is calculatedGold serves as example to explain how the Long- and Short recommendations are generated.

Our technical analyses are mainly based on TRENDand MOMENTUM. We have found over the yearsthat these two are the most reliable approaches.

The momentum indicator is based on a Rate-of-change calculation. The momentum indicator iseither rising or declining. Thus, if the momentumindicator is rising the model is “1”and green. If themomentum is declining, the model is “0”and red.

For the moving averages we respect the Fibonacciseries and use the 13-day and 21-day movingaverages for the short-term trend, the 34-day and55-day moving averages for the medium-term trendand the 89-day and 144-day moving averages forthe long-term trend. The price is either above orbelow the moving average. Thus, if the price isabove the moving average, the model is “1”andgreen. If the price is below the moving average, themodel is “0”and red.

The short-term trend lasts from 1 to 4 weeks. Themedium-term trend lasts for 3 to 6 months and thelong-term trend lasts for 12 months or longer.

GOLD and its 13-, 21-, 34-, 55-, 89- and 144-day average

Short- (red), medium- (blue) and long-term (black) momentum

Short-term momentum (ST MOM) is accelerating, i.e. themomentum indicator is rising. This is why the model shows a 1 andis green. The price is above the 13-day average (13DAVG). This iswhy the model shows a 1 and is green. The price is above the21-day average. This is why the model shows a 1and is green.

Medium-term momentum(MT MOM) is decelerating, i.e. themomentum indicator is declining.This is why the model shows a0 and is red.The price is above the 34-dayaverage. This is why the modelshows a 1 and is green.The price is above the 55-dayaverage. This is why the modelshows a 1 and is green.

Long-term momentum(LT MOM) is slowing, i.e. themomentum indicator is declining.This is why the model shows a0 and red.The price is above the 89-dayaverage. This is why the modelshows a 1 and is green.The price is above the 144-dayaverage. This is why the modelshows a 1 and is green.

The Short-term Model Score forGold is a maximum of 3. Itranges from 0 (bearish) to 3(bullish).

The Medium-term Model Scorefor Gold is 2. It ranges from0 (bearish) to 3 (bullish).

The Long-term Model Score forGold is 2. It ranges from 0(bearish) to 3 (bullish).

The Composite Model Score ranges from 0 (maximumbearish) to 18 (maximum bullish). The bearish range is redfrom 0 to 7. The bullish range is green from 11 to 18. TheComposite Model Score is not equal to the sum of theshort-term, medium- and long-term scores but the short-term, medium-term and long-term scores are weighteddepending on market volatility.With a Model Score of 15 Gold is bullish (green) and long.


30.06.2008

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Guide to Technical AnalysisWhere recommendation tables are mentioned in the report, “Close”is the latest closing price quoted on the exchange. “MT”denotes the rating for themedium-term trend (3 –6 months outlook). “ST”denotes the short-term trend (3 –6 weeks outlook). The ratings are “+”for a positive outlook (pricelikely to rise), “0”for neutral (no big price changes expected) and “-“for a negative outlook (price likely to fall). Outperform in the column “Rel perf”denotes the expected performance of the stocks relative to the benchmark. The “Comment”column includes the latest advice from the analyst. In thecolumn “Recom”the date is listed when the stock was recommended for purchase (opening purchase). “P&L”gives the profit or loss that has accruedsince the purchase recommendation was given.

For a short introduction to technical analysis, please refer to Technical Analysis Explained at:https://entry4.credit-suisse.ch/csfs/research/p/d/de/techresearch/media/pdf/trs_tutorial_en.pdf

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