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TRANSCRIPT
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Workshop on Alarm threshold values and warning procedures 09/07/2008Page 1
Technical Assistance for Flood Forecasting and EarlyWarning System for Maritza and Tundja rivers
Workshop onAlarm threshold values and warning procedures
Plovdiv, July 9th 2008
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Workshop on Alarm threshold values and warning procedures 09/07/2008Page 2
Workshop Agenda
Morning sessionBlock 1 General (9:30 – 10:00 )Opening by Mr. Roques and the representatives of thebeneficiaryIntroduction of the participantsShort review of the project andObjectives of the workshop
Block 2 Watershed characteristics; Geography and andhydrologyMr Lissev : 10:00 – 10:45Review of the river systemFlood genesisFlood statisticsFlood propagation timesDam influence on floods
10:45 – 11:00 Coffee break
Block 2 : Flood Forecasts, Warnings and ThresholdsMr. Roques :11:00 – 11:30Q&A
Block 3 : Vulnerable Areas and Thresholds; TundjaBasinQ&A : 11:30 - 12:30
12:30 - 13:30 Lunch break
Afternoon sessionBlock 4: Vulnerable Areas and Thresholds; UpperMaritza13:30 : 14:30Block 4 (cont) : Vulnerable Areas and Thresholds;Lower Maritza and Tributaries Maritza14:30 – 15:45
15:45 – 16:00 coffee break
Block 6 : ClosureSummary, conclusion and closure of the workshopMr. Roques 16:00 – 16:30
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Workshop on Alarm threshold values and warning procedures 09/07/2008Page 3
Short Project description
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Technical Assistance for Flood Forecasting and EarlyWarning System for Maritza and Tundja rivers
This project is part of the more global European PHARE project“Capacity Improvement for Flood Forecasting in the Bulgarian-Turkey Cross Border Cooperation Region”. Its realisation has beenentrusted by the Ministry of Regional Development and PublicWorks to the consortium “BCEOM société d’Ingénierie” & “HKVConsultants” from France and Holland with the participation ofBulgarian experts and the support of the National Institute ofMeteorology and Hydrology (NIMH) and the East Aegean River BasinDirectorate of the Ministry of Environment and Water. It startedofficially on October 2nd.
It comes with a supply component contract where Hydro-meteorologicalstations and software for Flood modelling and Flood forecasting isprovided.
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Technical Assistance for Flood Forecasting and EarlyWarning System for Maritza and Tundja rivers
The system we are developing will provide forecasts of riverdischarges and water levels along Maritza and Tundja severalhours in advance (from 6 hours to more than 60 hoursdepending on where you are in the basin).
Consequently, when our forecasts show that some discharge orwater level value may be reached at some point in the future wecan raise some warning or alarm within our system and produceautomatically information summaries (bulletins) that can beaddressed to the authorities.
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Technical Assistance for Flood Forecasting and EarlyWarning System for Maritza and Tundja rivers
The purpose of this workshop, is to discuss on how definingtogether
Ø The flood alarm threshold values for discharges and/orwater levels in the different river reaches with vulnerableareas to be used locally to warn or alert the authoritiesthere.
Ø The type of information needed for the warningprocedures to be used in the Maritsa and Tundja basinfor the authorities
This discussion is necessary in order to take into account thespecific wills, needs and knowledge of the differentstakeholders which are concerned by the issue of floods in thisarea for civil protection and urban management
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Project study logic
Hydro-meteoData
Analysis
Geographical& TopographicalData acquisition
Model Set upHydrologyHydraulics
Real timeFlood forecasting
system
Damoperational
rules
BG-TKharmonisation
Dataacquisitioninterfaces
Alert/alarmprocedures
NIHMdata
EARBDGISdata
Topographicsurveys
Flood maps
FloodScenarios
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The flood modelling approach
Hydrology
HydraulicsStudy of Flood genesis from rainand/or snow-melting.Rainfall-Runoff models for eachsub-basin are based upon dataanalysis and general description.Topography has not to be precise.Outputs are discharge hydrograms
Flood propagation in theriver and banksFlows are modelled using flow mechanicsTopographic data are essentialData are needed for model calibrationDischarges and water heights are linkedin the model
Observed Rainfalls(or Meteo forecasts)
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Ouput from hydraulic models : flood maps
Hydraulic modelsprovide waterheights andvelocities at nodepoints according toinitial conditionsand time series odwater dischargeinputsFlood maps areproduced fromwater heights ascomputed bymodels andsuperimposed upontopographic data
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Watershed characteristics
Geography and hydrology
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Geography
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Maritza basin Hypsometry
HIPSOGRAPHIC CURVE - MARITZA
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
0 10002000
30004000
50006000
70008000
900010000
1100012000
1300014000
1500016000
1700018000
1900020000
2100022000
A [km^2]
H [m
]
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Tundja basin Hypsometry
HIPSOGRAPHIC CURVE - TUNDJA
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2400
0 5001000
15002000
25003000
35004000
45005000
55006000
65007000
75008000
A [km^2]
H [m
]
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Meteorology and Flood Genesis
Basically four types of Flood :
Ø Winter floods due to a series of Mediterranean cyclones propagating Eastwardfrom Mediterranean sea across the Balkan peninsula (December-15 Feb) showintensive repetitive rain throughout all the basin; result in large and long floods inthe lower Maritza
Ø End of winter early spring : same as above but with sudden air warming ;worsened by the effect of snow melting
Ø Spring and early summer flood (later if rainy summers) : Convective precipitationalong cold fronts of slowly moving cyclones (Eastward) re-alimented by soilmoisture ; will touch the upper basins of both Tundja and Maritza with large flashfloods
Ø Fall season floods : Convective precipitations from the Mediterranean alimentedby warm sea water with a slowly moving cyclone centering along the Balkancoasts then eventually to the Black Sea ; will touch mostly the lower parts ofMaritza and Tundja
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Seasonality of floods
Monthly Distribution of the Floods on Maritza (Harmanly) for 84 years and Tundja (Elhovo) 42 years
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
u
Months
Num
ber o
f Yea
rs
.
All floods MaritzaMaritza > 1000m3/sTundja>100 m3/s
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Statistics on Rainfalls
0.001 0.05 0.5 5 30 60 90 99 99.9 99.995
P%
10
100
1000
h 24 P TKO h24 = f (P) Metod I
TKO h24 = f(P) Metod II
TKO h24p srawnenia
Increase of max daily rainfalls during the last 17 years : (upper Maritza)
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Statistics on Rainfalls
Increase of max daily rainfalls during the last 17 years : (Upper Rodope)
0.001 0.05 0.5 5 30 60 90 99 99.9 99.995P%
10
100
1000
h 24 P TKO h24 = f (P) Metod I
TKO h24 = f(P) Metod II
TKO h24p srawnenia
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Statistics on Rainfalls
Increase of max daily rainfalls during the last 17 years : (Tundja)
0.001 0.05 0.5 5 30 60 90 99 99.9 99.995P%
10
100
1000
h 24 P TKO h24 = f (P) Metod I
TKO h24 = f(P) Metod II
TKO h24p srawnenia
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Historical Floods on Maritza (Harmanli)
Yearly floods on Maritza
0.000
200.000
400.000
600.000
800.000
1000.000
1200.000
1400.000
1600.000
1800.000
2000.000
1914
1917
1920
1923
1926
1929
1932
1935
1938
1941
1944
1947
1950
1953
1956
1959
1962
1965
1968
1971
1974
1977
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
Qm
ax (m
3/s)
.
Yearly floods on Maritza
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Historical Floods on Tundja
Yearly Floods on Tundja at Elhovo
0.000
50.000
100.000
150.000
200.000
250.000
300.000
350.000
1952
1955
1957
1959
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
Q (m
3/s)
.
Flood Tundja
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Historical Floods on Tundja (Banya)
Yearly Floods on Tundja at Banya
0.000
50.000
100.000
150.000
200.000
250.000
300.000
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
Q (m
3/s)
.
Banya
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Historical Floods on TundjaYearly Floods on Tundja at Yambol and Elhovo
0.000
50.000
100.000
150.000
200.000
250.000
300.000
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Q (m
3/s)
.
ElhovoYambol
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Historical Floods on Tundja (Banya)
Before thereservoir
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Workshop on Alarm threshold values and warning procedures 09/07/2008Page 24
Flood statistics on Tundja Yambol
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Flood statistics on Tundja (Elhovo)
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Flood statistics on upper Maritza (Pazardjik)
Lognormal:2005 flood : 350 y
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Historical Floods on Maritza (Plovdiv)
Lognormal:2005 flood : 90 y
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Historical Floods on lower Maritza (Harmanli)
2005
Flo
od
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Flood propagation on Maritza (flood 2005)
0,000
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1000,000
1200,000
1400,000
03/08/200500:00
05/08/200500:00
07/08/200500:00
09/08/200500:00
11/08/200500:00
13/08/200500:00
15/08/200500:00
17/08/200500:00
19/08/200500:00
Q_71380_YadenicaQ_71210_MativirQ_71210_Day_MativirQ_71480_TopolnicaQ_71380_Day_YadenicaQ_71700_BelovoQ_71800_PasardzikQ_71800_Day_PasardzikQ_71550_SborQ_71550_Day_SborQ_72420_HrabrinoQ_72420_Day_HrabrinoQ_72700_PlovdivQ_72460_BachkovoQ_72270_KurtovoQ_72270_Day_KurtovoQ_72520_Day_BanyaQ_72850_ParvomayQ_73030_Day_DalbokQ_73370_Day_DimitrovgradQ_73480_Day_GalabovoQ_72850_Day_ParvomayQ_72460_Day_BachkovoQ_72700_Day_PlovdivQ_71420_Day_MarkoNikolovoQ_71700_Day_BelovoQ_71480_Day_TopolnicaQ_73550_HarmanliQ_73550_Day_HarmanliQ_73750_HarmanliQ_73750_Day_HarmanliQ_73850_SvilingradQ_73850_Day_SvilingradQ_71420_MarkoNikolovo
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Flood Forecasting and Early Warning System Workshop 11/30/2007Page 30
Bel.Paz.
Top.
Plov.
Parv.
5h10h
6h8h
12h
12h
8h
10h
12h
Harm.
Dimi.
Svil.
Sim.
Propagation times of Flood waves for Maritza
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Flood propagation on Tundja (03-2006 flood )
0,000
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
10/03/2006 11/03/2006 12/03/2006 13/03/2006 14/03/2006 15/03/2006 16/03/2006 17/03/2006 18/03/2006 19/03/2006 20/03/2006Date
Dis
char
ge [m
3/s]
Q_74750_Banja_DayQ_74440_ChumernaQ_74440_Chumerna_DayQ_74500_VodenichaneQ_74500_Vodenichane_DayQ_74800_YambolQ_74800_Yambol_DayQ_74580_SinapovaQ_74580_Sinapova_DayQ_74200_KrumovoQ_74200__Krumovo_DayQ_74850_ElhovoQ_74850_Elhovo_DaySérie14
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Flood Forecasting and Early Warning System Workshop 11/30/2007Page 32
Zrebch.
Elhovo
25 h
40h
Yambol
Propagation times of Flood waves for Tundja(Q <> 100m3/s)
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Influence of Dams and Reservoirs
Ø Date of construction Vacha :1975; Topolniza 1963; Zrebchevo1973)
Ø Obviously Dams modify flood regimes and statistics but untilwhich discharge ?
Ø Extreme floods remain the same ! Once filled, Dams areovertopped (eg Topolnitza ; 2005; Arda 2006 and 2007) andlet the flood go
Ø Question : Yearly probability for Dam overtopping ?Estimations are needed for :Ø Vacha dam (out of the scope of this project) : security 25 Mm3Ø Zrebchevo reservoir : security 100 Mm3Ø Topolnitza (+/- known now.) : security : 45 Mm3
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Zrebchevo Dam statistics on inflows and overtoppings
0.001 0.01 0.1 1Probability of exceedance %
1
10
100
Vol
ume
m3
x10
6
0.001 0.01 0.1 1Probability of exceedance %
1
10
100
Volu
me
m3 x
106
New Data (2000-2007)Risk of overtopping : 150 Mm3 of inflow ; Theoretical : 500 y
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Topolnitza Dam statistics on inflows and overtoppings
New Data (2000-2007)Risk of overtopping : 50 Mm3 of inflow ; Theoretical : < 100 y
0.001 0.01 0.1 1Probability of exceedance %
1
10
100
Vol
ume
m3
x10
6
0.001 0.01 0.1 1Probability of exceedance %
1
10
100
Vol
ume
m3
x10
6
1 Day 2 Day
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Flood Forecasts, Warnings and Thresholds
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The Flood Forecasting system organisation
CalibratedModels
Data acquisitionsystem
DailyMeteo forecastsand/or prepared
scenarios
Flood Forecasting System
DB
LocalAuthorities
Crisis managementteam
FloodMaps
GISdata
Preparation
Return ofexperience
HM-DBdata
Interfaces
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Flood Warning system : Forecasts and Thresholds
Control Point Yambol
122.00
123.00
124.00
125.00
126.00
03/11/06 03/13/06 03/15/06 03/17/06Date
Wat
er L
evel
[m]
Forecast longForecast shortObserved
3.3
4.3
5.2
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Flood Forecasting and Warning operations
Ø st
Decision to warn
DataCollection
DataTransmission
MeteorologicalForecasting
FloodForecasting
WarningPreparation
WarningDissemination
Interpretation& Response
Feedback
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Flood Forecasting sequences : 24/24 operations
Initialised at To then Runs every Tf (to be parameterised)Data collection from NIMH when available before Time T; interfaces to be setData coherence analysis on retrieved data to be defined and designedProcess data assimilation : “mix” observations with results from last computationRun the models at time T using initial conditions from data assimilationProvide results at node points defined as output discharges / water heights
Forecast N°1 Forecast N°2 Forecast N°x Forecast N°N-1 Forecast N°N Forecast N°N+1
Run Run Run Run Run Run
T0 TF T T+TF
Intialisation
Datacollection +assimilation
Datacollection +assimilation
Datacollection +assimilation
Datacollection +assimilation
Datacollection +assimilation
Datacollection +assimilation
Once it is started, the forecasting systemmay run for several days or weeks
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Flood Warning system : Forecasts and Thresholds
Control Point Yambol
122,00
123,00
124,00
125,00
126,00
03/11/06 03/13/06 03/15/06 03/17/06Date
Wat
er L
evel
[m]
Forecast longForecast shortObserved
3.3
4.3
5.2
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Flood Warning system with FFS
Ø st
Analysis & predictionIf warnings are deemed necessary, they are:
Ø Prepared manually / automaticallyØ Automatically disseminated
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Roles and responsibilities during flood events
Institute of Meteorology•Operates the forecasts 24/24 duringthe crisis•Alerts the regional basin crisis centreof evolutions•Provides forecasted data
Regional Basin crisis centreIssues flood warnings and forecastsIssues river heights bulletins / infoPrepares / uses flood maps
National crisis centreCoordinates flood disasterresponse
Regional crisiscentreCoordinate localactions of floodmitigation
MEDIABroadcast information / bulletins
COMMUNITY at RISKActs on advices and warnings
Turkey crisis centreReceive flood warnings &observed and forecasted data
Local Government crisiscentreCoordinate regional actions offlood mitigationImplement local disater plansProvide local advices andrecommendations
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Vulnerable areas and ThresholdsTUNDJA BASIN
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Proposed Control points with Threshold values for Tundja
YambolVodenichene, ChardaMochuritza-HMSVodenichene
HaskovoSrem, Turkey (Edirne)HMS Srem (Planned)
Yambol(Elhovo)Konevec, Trankovo, KniazevoHMS Elhovo
YambolZavoy, Veselinovo, Yambol, Okop, Hanovo,TenevoHMS Yambol
Krushare, Zelyu Vojvoda, ZavoyKrushare
SlivenBanja, Binkos, Charda, Slivenski mineralni bani,Mechkarevo, SamuilovoHMS Banja
CivilProtectionVulnerable areas / settlements
Control Points onTundja
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Settlements for upper Tundja
Slivenski
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Threshold values for upper Tundja :Preliminary Model results
0.0 5000.0 10000.0 15000.0 20000.0 25000.0 30000.0 35000.0 40000.0 45000.0 50000.0 55000.0 60000.0 65000.0 70000.0115.0
120.0
125.0
130.0
135.0
140.0
145.0
150.0
155.0
160.0
165.0
170.0
175.0
180.0
185.0
190.0
195.0
200.0
205.0
210.0
215.0
220.0
225.0[meter] 1-3-2006 12:00:00
TUNDJA 0 - 76298
0 273
1796
4037
6183
7332
8961 11
187
1395
414
807
1615
6
1895
0
2345
0
2637
1
2899
330
252
3210
3
3346
633
750
3614
3
3812
0
3962
7
4117
9
4407
7
4771
9
5030
851
398
5329
5
5637
9
5928
0
6061
8
6194
4
6352
7
6515
2
6685
5
6869
069
585
7222
5
(600 m3/s)
Flooding
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Settlements for upper Tundja
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0.0 5000.0 10000.0 15000.0 20000.0 25000.0 30000.0 35000.0 40000.0 45000.0 50000.0 55000.092.0
94.0
96.0
98.0
100.0
102.0
104.0
106.0
108.0
110.0
112.0
114.0
116.0
118.0
120.0
122.0
124.0
126.0
128.0
130.0
132.0
134.0
[meter] 1-3-2006 12:00:00
TUNDJA
7629
8
7796
878
750
7891
1
TUNDJA 78911 - 86861
7900
979
442
8024
6
8156
4
8583
3
8686
1
TUNDJA 86861 - 126734
8783
2
9010
3
9134
6
9249
2 9316
4
9450
4
9751
998
477
1001
29
1015
98
1049
40
1090
73
1133
53
1146
32
1172
79
1216
46
1267
34
TUNDJA
1317
32
TUNDJA
1342
89
Threshold values for lower TundjaPreliminary Model results
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Vulnerable areas and ThresholdsMARITZA BASIN
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Proposed Control points with Threshold values for Maritza
HaskovoSvilengrad, Generalovo, Kapitan Andreevo ;EDIRNEHMS Svilengrad
HaskovoHarmanlyHMS Harmanly
HaskovoSimeonovgradSimeonovgrad
HaskovoDimitrovgrad, Chernokonevo, Brod, NovanadezdaDimitrovgrad
PlovdivParvomay, Dobri dol , Brod, Nova nadezdaHMS Parvomay
PlovdivOrizare, PlovdivHMS Plovdiv
PazardzikPazardzik, Miriantzi, Ognianovo, 7. Hadzievo,Trivodici, Govedare, StambolijskiHMS Pazardzik
PazardzikBelovo, Zlokuchene, ZvanichevoHMS Belovo
CivilProtectionSettlements at StakesControl Points
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Proposed Control points with Threshold values forMaritza tributaries
HaskovoGalabovo, Galabovo (Musachevo)?, Piasachevo,Kalugerovo, NavasenSazlika – HMS Galabovo
PlovdivAsenovgrad, KatunicaChepelarska–HMSBachkovo
PlovdivHrabrino, ParvenecParvenecka - HMSHrabrino
PlovdivKrichim, Kurtovo Konare,Yoakim Gruevo,KadievoVacha- Dam Krichim
PazardzikHMS Sbor, Chernogorovo, Krali Marko, Highwaycrossing
Luda Yana – HMS Roseb(Sbor)
PazardzikVetren dol, VarvaraChepinska - Vetren dol,Varvara
PazardzikLesichovo, Kalugerovo, Pamidovo,Saraya(Yunacite), Dragor, Highway crossingTopolnitza- Lesichovo
CivilProtectionVulnerable settlementsControl Points
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Vulnerable areas
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Threshold values for Upper Maritza
Ø Validate Stakes for every control point…Ø As the model is not operational for now we may propose for
Alert :Ø Belovo (short term only) : rating curve ? ½ of 2005 for alertØ Pazardjik / Maritza : ½ 2005 = 600 m3 /sØ Maritza Plovdiv : 2/3 2005 or more ?Ø Pazardjik / Topolnitza ; Dikes computed for # 250 m3 /sØ Luda Yana (short term only) :Ø Vacha (Plovdiv; just observed : basin not covered by the
FFS); WaitØ Chepelarska (Plovdiv) 2005 =150 m3/s (max 400 in 2002)Ø Vacha and Topolnitza water level ?
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Vulnerable areas
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Vulnerable areas
Simeonovgrad
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Threshold values for Lower Maritza
Ø Validate the vulnerable areas locallyØ As the model is not operational for now we may propose for
Alert :Ø Parvomayà 2/3 of 2005 for alert ?Ø Dimitrovgradà 2/3 of 2005 ?Ø Simeonovgrad : 2/3 2005 or 2006 ?Ø Harmanly : 2/3à 2005 or 2007 ?Ø Svilengrad : 2/3à 2005 or 2007 ?
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Discussions
Ø Content of bulletinsØ How to deal with uncertainties of forecastsØ Way of dissemination (Fax / Telephone / Internet)Ø Raise / End of Warnings / Alert
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Conclusions of the Workshop
Ø Control points : Relevant ? Approved ? Need more ?Ø Thresholds will be refined when the models will be ready and
calibrated : Methodology approved ? Discharges or Level ?Ø Type and format of bulletinsØ Warning / pre-Alert / Alert Cycles
Ø What type of complementary information ? Internet ?Ø What functions expected by EARBD and/or NIMH for
Broadcasting of warnings / Alert messages and Bulletins