20/06/2016

Technical Analysis

EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY XAU/USD

“The two ways that this could potentially become systemic is that if the U.K. goes and if the U.K., Scotland will have a new referendum, maybe France or Finland or some other country in the euro will have a referendum. It could possibly lead to the end of the euro.” - Fidelity Investments (based on CNBC)

EUR/USD surges to 1.1378 on Monday

Level Rationale

■ R3 1.1457/65 Bollinger band; monthly R1

■ R2 1.1407 Weekly R2

■ R1 1.1340 Weekly R1

■ S1 1.1307/1.1275 20 and 55-day SMAs; monthly PP

■ S2 1.1235/31 Weekly PP; 100-day SMA

■ S3 1.1168 Weekly S1

Sentiment Today Yesterday 5 days ago 10-day avg. Open Positions -6% -4% -6% -7%

Orders (±50 pips) 20% 4% 32% 9%

Orders (±100 pips) 24% 2% 30% 6%

Indicator Day Week Month

MACD (12; 26; 9) Buy Sell Buy

RSI (14) Neutral Neutral Neutral

Stochastic (5; 3; 3) Neutral Neutral Neutral

ADX (14) Neutral Neutral Buy

CCI (14) Neutral Neutral Neutral

AROON (14) Buy Buy Buy

Alligator (13; 8; 5) Neutral Buy Sell

SAR (0.02; 0.2) Buy Buy Sell

Aggregate ↗ ↗ →

Pair’s Outlook The European currency scored gains against the US Dollar on Friday, as

it moved from the level of 1.1232 to 1.1273 at the end of day’s trading

session. However, a much bigger surprise is the Monday’s morning, as

after the weekend, the currency pair has started the day’s trading with

an increase in value to 1.1329. In addition, since the start of the

session, the currency exchange rate has gained even more and at the

moment is at 1.1376. The Euro now face a new weekly R2 at 1.1408

against the US Dollar on Monday.

Traders’ Sentiment SWFX traders are still bearish regarding the EUR/USD pair, as 53% of

open positions are short. However, pending orders in the 100-pip range

are 62% bullish.

Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 research@dukascopy.com

Monday, June 20, 2016 07:30 GMT

GBP/USD continues to edge higher

Level Rationale

■ R3 1.4692 200-day SMA

■ R2 1.4631 Weekly R2

■ R1 1.4529/1.4499 Weekly R1; monthly PP

■ S1 1.4455/19 20 and 55-day SMAs

■ S2 1.4356 100-day SMA

■ S3 1.4288/56 Monthly S1; weekly PP

Sentiment Today Yesterday 5 days ago 10-day avg. Open Positions 10% 24% 26% 18%

Orders (±50 pips) -6% 28% -50% -5%

Orders (±100 pips) -12% 14% 2% -3%

Indicator Day Week Month

MACD (12; 26; 9) Sell Buy Buy

RSI (14) Neutral Neutral Neutral

Stochastic (5; 3; 3) Neutral Neutral Neutral

ADX (14) Neutral Neutral Sell

CCI (14) Neutral Neutral Neutral

AROON (14) Sell Buy Sell

Alligator (13; 8; 5) Sell Neutral Sell

SAR (0.02; 0.2) Buy Sell Sell

Aggregate ↘ → ↘

Pair’s Outlook The Sterling regained the bullish momentum on Friday, as ‘Bremain’

vote took the lead. The Cable not only climber over the 100-day SMA

that day, but even opened with a rather serious bullish gap today. The

British currency retained most of its strength due to the positive EU

referendum polls, which could help the exchange rate stabilise above

the 1.46 major level. In this case the pair will erase losses for the past

two weeks. The weekly R2 is the level to limit the gains, while the

upper border is located around 1.4692, represented by the 200-day

SMA. Nevertheless, the Pound remains unstable ahead of the EU

referendum, thus, the a possibility of the downside development exists.

Traders’ Sentiment There are 55% of traders holding long positions (previously 62%). At the

same time, the share of sell orders increased from 43 to 56%.

Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 research@dukascopy.com

Monday, June 20, 2016 07:30 GMT

“Sterling is back in favor today as markets seem to be dialing down their expectations that the UK is heading for the EU exit.” - ETX Capital (based on WBP Online)

USD/JPY risks falling back to 104.00

Level Rationale

■ R3 106.65 38.20% Fibo

■ R2 106.18 Weekly R1

■ R1 104.87 Weekly PP

■ S1 103.43/34 Bollinger band; monthly S2

■ S2 102.84/60 Weekly S1; trend-line

■ S3 101.52/14 Weekly S2; monthly S3

Sentiment Today Yesterday 5 days ago 10-day avg. Open Positions 48% 44% 42% 45%

Orders (±50 pips) 56% 20% 58% 18%

Orders (±100 pips) 22% 4% -10% 1%

Indicator Day Week Month

MACD (12; 26; 9) Sell Buy Sell

RSI (14) Neutral Neutral Neutral

Stochastic (5; 3; 3) Buy Neutral Buy

ADX (14) Sell Neutral Sell

CCI (14) Buy Buy Buy

AROON (14) Sell Sell Sell

Alligator (13; 8; 5) Sell Sell Buy

SAR (0.02; 0.2) Sell Sell Sell

Aggregate ↘ → →

Pair’s Outlook The US Dollar failed to rebound against the Japanese Yen last Friday,

but remained above the 104.00 psychological level. Furthermore, the

pair opened with a small bullish gap today, suggesting that a drop

below that mark is doubtful, although technical indicators imply

otherwise. The weekly PP, which acts as the immediate resistance, is

likely to prevent the Buck from advancing, therefore, a drop back

towards the 104.00 level is expected to take place. In case the bears

manage to push the Greenback even lower, the next target will be the

103.40 level, where the monthly S2 coincides with the Bollinger band.

Traders’ Sentiment Nearly three quarters (74%) of traders hold long positions today

(previously 72%). Meanwhile, the number of purchase orders increased

from 52 to 61%.

Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 research@dukascopy.com

Monday, June 20, 2016 07:30 GMT

“If it breaks 100, Bank of Japan intervention is possible, but in order to intervene in the markets, you have to get agreement from the United States, and at this level -- 104, 105 -- I don’t think the U.S. would agree.” - Eisuke Sakakibara, former Finance Ministry (based on Market Watch)

Gold struggles around 1,280 level on Monday

Level Rationale

■ R3 1,317.94 Weekly R1

■ R2 1,307.08 2015 high

■ R1 1,295.14 Weekly PP

■ S1 1,278.62/1,274.76 Monthly R1; weekly S1

■ S2 1,263.64 20-day SMA

■ S3 1,253.29/1,251.96 55-day SMA; weekly S2

Sentiment Today Yesterday 5 days ago 10-day avg. Positions -34% -40% -32% -24%

Indicator Day Week Month

MACD (12; 26; 9) Buy Sell Buy

RSI (14) Neutral Neutral Neutral

Stochastic (5; 3; 3) Neutral Neutral Neutral

ADX (14) Buy Buy Buy

CCI (14) Neutral Sell Neutral

AROON (14) Buy Buy Buy

Alligator (13; 8; 5) Buy Buy Sell

SAR (0.02; 0.2) Buy Buy Buy

Aggregate ↑ ↗ ↗

Pair’s Outlook After suffering losses on Thursday, the yellow metal regained losses

and it even gained additional value on Friday, as gold reached the

1,297.48 level at the end of day’s trading session. However, on Monday

morning, the bullion is losing value against the US Dollar, as the metal is

at the 1,281.50 mark, and it is struggling on its downward movement

with the support provided by the first monthly resistance at 1,278.62.

In the meantime, aggregate daily technical indicators predict a surge

for gold, and in such case it would have to break the resistance

provided by the weekly PP at 1,295.14.

Traders’ Sentiment SWFX traders are still majorly bearish, as 67% of all open positions are

bearish. However, it is a 3% move to the bullish side, as on Friday 70%

of open positions were bearish.

Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 research@dukascopy.com

Monday, June 20, 2016 07:30 GMT

“We took a deep dive into our gold indicators, and basically found out that all our indicators are flashing red. That is very odd, and certainly not in line with Friday’s bullish gold price action.” - Investing Heaven (based on Investing.com)

Signals Buy – the pair shows a clear uptrend Sell – the pair shows a clear downtrend Neutral – no specific trend for the pair Chart SMA (55) – Simple Moving Average of 55 periods SMA (200) – Simple Moving Average of 200 periods Indicators MACD – Moving average convergence divergence – momentum indicator RSI – Relative strength index – compares the magnitude of recent gains to recent losses in attempt to determine ‘overbought’ and ‘oversold’ conditions of the asset Stochastic – technical momentum indicator that compares a currency pair’s closing price to its price range over a given time period ADX – Average directional index – trend strength indicators CCI – oscillator used in technical analysis to help determine when a currency has been overbought or oversold SAR – trending indicator – shows the direction of a trend AROON – measures strength of a trend and likelihood that it will continue Alligator – trending indicator demonstrates presence of a trend and its direction Forecasts

Third Quartile – separates 25% of the highest forecasts

Second Quartile – the median price based on the

projections of the industry

First Quartile – separates 25% of the lowest forecasts

EXPLANATIONS

Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 research@dukascopy.com

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