tech investing 10 hypotheses v8.6b

7/31/2019 Tech Investing 10 Hypotheses v8.6b

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Presenta(ontoMashableConnectRogerMcNamee

Eleva(onPartners

HowtoRevivetheWeb


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Internet

WorldWideWebHTML4

1998-2006:Internet+Web


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Internet

WorldWide

Web

HTML4

AppModel

Carriers+WiFi

2007-Present:TwoSeparateMarkets

5/4/12 HowtoRevivetheWeb"byRogerMcNamee 5


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WorldWide

Web

HTML4

AppModel

Internet Carriers+WiFi

2007-Present:Hypernet+Hyperweb


Hyperweb

Hypernet


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Businessesareadop(ngconsumer

technologybecauseitischeapertobuy,

cheapertosupport,andworksbeLer.

Hypothesis#2


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Web=OnlyHalfofAddressableMarket

Hypernet

HTML4

Windows/IE

Mac/Safari

Search:Google

AppModel

+Carriers

Units/$===>

AppModel

iOS

Android

Search:Apps



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Indexsearchs(llcontrolswiredweb;in

mobile,usecasesandbehaviorsare

different,resul(ngindifferentwinners

Hypothesis#3


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AppsReplaceGoogleforMobileSearch

Hypernet

HTML4

100searches

AppModel

+Carriers

Units/$===>

AppModel

iPad:10

iPhone:1



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Hypernet

Google

Microso

Facebook

CiscoOracle/Sun

SAP

Apple

Verizon

ATT

PublishersAmazon

B&N

WebWinnersHaveFailedtoProfitFromMobile



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Applesucceededbyhidingtechnology

whereverpossible...andsubs(tu(ng

style.

Hypothesis#4


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Hypernet

HTML4

Opensource

ongtail

FreeCommodi(zed

WildWest

AppModel

+Carriers

Units/$===>

AppModel

iOS

Branded

Free+PaidDifferen(ated

Secure

$400-1,000

CustomersDontLovetheWeb

5/4/12 HowtoRevivetheWeb"byRogerMcNamee


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Nextgenera(onwebtechnologywill

favorpublishers/consumersovermiddle

men

Hypothesis#5


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Commodity

Content

HTM4Web

AppModel Future:HTM5

TechPendulumEnablingMoreContentDifferenaon


Differen(ated

Content


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HTML4Web

Engagement:MetricofValueforContent


iOS HTML5Web

15-20secs/story

2-5mins/app

????


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Commodi(zedcontentfavorsmiddlemen;differen(atedcontentfavors

publishersandconsumers

Content=

Differen(ated

Content=

Commodity

Engagement

ValuetoPublisher$

Youarehere!

HTM4zone iOSzone HTM5zone


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Flash

Flash

Flash

Flash

HTM4-Today HTM5-2014

HTML4

HTML4

HTML4

HTML4

HTML4

HTML5

HTML5=HigherProduconValues,LowerCost



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HTML5enables

everythingtobean

app,includingads

Adscanbe@ed

directlytocontent

Itmaybe2-3years

beforeHTML5tools

willenablethis

HTML5=EngagementandMonezaon

STORY

Product1Product2

Product3

Product1*Product2*

Product3*

Adver(sement



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1. App:func@onslikeana@veapp

2.eBook:somethingtoreadlater

3. Bookmark+:contentavailable

forlaterreference

4. Layers

HTML5AppsMayHaveMulpleForms

STORY

Product1Product2

Product3

Ticker1*Ticker2*

Ticker3*

StockTrading

App


INFOGRAPHIC

2

1

34


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1. Appdelivery2. eBook:atomiza@on

ofcontentenablesincrementalrevenue

3. Contentavailableforlaterreferencecan

includemone@za@on

4. Layerscanincludemone@za@on

MulpleFormsofHighValueMonezaon

STORY

Product1Product2

Product3

Ticker1*Ticker2*

Ticker3*

StockTrading

App

5/4/12HowtoRevivetheWeb"byRogerMcNamee

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INFOGRAPHIC

2

1

34


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World

Wide

Web

HTML4

AppModel

Units/$===>

HTML5

Google Apple ???

Content=

Commodity

Content=

Limited

Differenaon

Content=

Unlimited

Differenaon

Desktops SmartPhones Future

HTML5=WideOpenOpportunity



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Advantage

Scale

OpenSource

Cost

Control

Economics

Funconality

iOS

???

HTML5

???

HTML5vsNaveApps


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World

Wide

Web

HTML4

AppModel

Units/$===>

HTML5

Google Apple ???

Content=

Commodity

Content=

Limited

Differenaon

Content=

Unlimited

Differenaon

Desktops SmartPhones Future

HTML5=WideOpenOpportunity



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Childrenundertheageof8maynever

useaPCthewayyoudo.

Hypothesis#6


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AnEight-YearOldsIdeaofaComputer


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Androidhasabrokeneconomicmodel;

cannotcompetewithAppleinthelong

term

Hypothesis#7


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COGS

COGS

Apple Android

Applesgrossmarginisroughlyequaltogross

revenuesforacomparableAndroid

BrandisaHUGEAdvantage



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5/4/12

HowtoRevivetheWeb"byRogerMcNamee

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Android=EntropyatHighVelocity

Amazon

Barnes&NobleSamsung

Verizon

OriginalAndroid

Standard


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Content Coolfactor

Techheatseeker

Inexpensive

SmartPhonePurchaseDrivers

Apple Android


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SocialandMobilearenowacost,not

acompe((veadvantage

Hypothesis#8


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U.S.economiccompe((venessatrisk

unlessweinvestfarmoreinpost-cellular

wirelesstechnology

Hypothesis#9


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Disrup(onofcable,satellite,andeven

NetFlixisbeginning.

Hypothesis#10


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USeconomyisbeginningtoimprove,despiteeffortsinWashingtontoreducedeficit

DJIA,S&P,Nasdaqreflectrisingop(mism Unemploymentremainshigh;possiblystructural

Excessiveconsumerindebtednessactsasadragongrowth Governmentdeficitsactasadragonfuturegrowth

Warscompeteforresourceswithprivateeconomy IsIrannext?

Investorchallenge:whatisthehappyending?

Economic&MarketEnvironment

3/19/12 "TenHypotheses"byRogerMcNamee 34


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Content Coolfactor

Techheatseeker

Inexpensive

Onward!!

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tech investing 10 hypotheses v8.6b

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