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    Stochastic Analysis of Drought

    Phenomena

    July 1985

    Approved for Public Release. Distribution Unlimited. TD-25

    US Army Corps

    of EngineersHydrologic Engineering Center

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    Standard Form 298(Rev. 8/98)Prescribed by ANSI Std. Z39-18

    REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE Form Approved OMB No. 0704-0188

    The public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instructions, searchingexisting data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding thisburden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to the Department of Defense, ExecutiveServices and Communications Directorate (0704-0188). Respondents should be aware that notwithstanding any other provision of law, no person shall besubject to any penalty for failing to comply with a collection of information if it does not display a currently valid OMB control number.PLEASE DO NOT RETURN YOUR FORM TO THE ABOVE ORGANIZATION.

    1. REPORT DATE(DD-MM-YYYY)July 1985

    2. REPORT TYPETraining Document

    3. DATES COVERED (From - To)

    5a. CONTRACT NUMBER

    5b. GRANT NUMBER

    4. TITLE AND SUBTITLEStochastic Analysis of Drought Phenomena

    5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER

    5d. PROJECT NUMBER

    5e. TASK NUMBER

    6. AUTHOR(S)David Goldman

    5F. WORK UNIT NUMBER

    7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES)US Army Corps of Engineers

    Institute for Water Resources

    Hydrologic Engineering Center (HEC)609 Second Street

    Davis, CA 95616-4687

    8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NUMBER

    TD-25

    10. SPONSOR/ MONITOR'S ACRONYM(S)9. SPONSORING/MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES)

    11. SPONSOR/ MONITOR'S REPORT NUMBER(S)

    12. DISTRIBUTION / AVAILABILITY STATEMENTApproved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

    13. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES

    .

    14. ABSTRACTDroughts are caused by both hydrologic and socioeconomic components. This document concentrates on stochastic modelsof streamflow as the hydrologic component of drought. Stochastic models of drought are presented to the water resource

    engineer as an extension of the more commonly understood flood frequency analysis. The extension can be made because

    flood frequency analysis utilizes stochastic models of independent random variables whereas drought analysis utilizesstochastic models of dependent random variables. There are many different stochastic models that have been implemented

    to describe dependent random variables. A comparison of these models indicates that simple ones, such as the

    autoregressive model, are adequate for the water resource engineer's needs.

    15. SUBJECT TERMSstochastic hydrology, drought analysis, autoregressive model, crossing theory

    16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: 19a. NAME OF RESPONSIBLE PERSON

    a. REPORT

    Ub. ABSTRACT

    Uc. THIS PAGE

    U

    17. LIMITATIONOFABSTRACT

    UU

    18. NUMBEROFPAGES

    154 19b. TELEPHONE NUMBER

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    Stochastic Analysis ofDrought Phenomena

    July 1985

    US Army Corps of Engineers

    Institute for Water ResourcesHydrologic Engineering Center609 Second StreetDavis, CA 95616

    (530) 756-1104(530) 756-8250 FAXwww.hec.usace.army.mil TD-25

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