target market analysis -background · for moversin the last 15 months. •single metro-wide...
TRANSCRIPT
TargetMarketAnalysis- BackgroundØ Aprimarytoolfor“Placemaking”
analysis
Ø Qualitativemeasureofmarketpotential
Ø UseofClusterAnalysistodeterminelikelytargetmarkets(ESRI:Tapestry&Experian:Mosaic)
Ø Usefulqualitativetool,whenusedproperly
WeaknessofTargetMarketAnalysisØ Bestusedforlargecitiesand
metropolitanareas
Ø Setofassumptionsarerequiredregardingdefinitionsandsensitivity
Ø RelativevalueofindividualPlacemakingassetsissubjective
Ø Verydifficulttouseinconjunctionwithstandarddemographicdatasets
ExampleofTMA-relatedmisuseConsultantinquestion– hiredbyMSHDAtoprovidecountywideTMAreportsacrossmostofMichiganin2014
Ø AskedtoidentifyallPlacemakingassetsandprovidingrankings
Ø Askedtoestimatemarketdemandpotentialforeachcountyandavailablesubmarkets
Ø Askedtoseparatedemandresultsbyproducttypeandincomeband
IssueswiththeTMAmodel1)CannotprovideaccuratedemandforecastswithinaTMAreport:
• Theclustersarenotaccurateenoughdescriptionsoflikelytargetmarketsforspecificproducttypes
• PoormethodologytouseTMAsegmentsincombinationwithU.S.Censusdata
• ToomuchoverlapwithintheTMAsegmentstoseparateresultsbytenureorAMI
IssueswiththeTMAmodel2)OveremphasisonthevalueofPlacemakingassetstojustifyrecommendations
• Toomuch“BuilditandTheyWillCome”narrative
• Nocomparisontoadjacentcommunitiestoprovidecontext
IssueswiththeTMAmodel3)Misleadingresultscannotbesupported–withtheendresultsthataredetrimentaltothecommunity
• Misuseoflocalresources,efforts,andcommunitysupport
• Questionsregardingcommunitydevelopmentgoals
• Privatesector/nonprofitspursueopportunitiesthatarenotrealistic
Example:BenzieCountyTMATMAreportindicatedfive-yeardemandforupto600rentalunits
• Standardmethodologydemonstratessupportfornomorethan60units
• Experienceddevelopersignoredtheresultsandquestiontheabilitiesoflocalleaders
• Localnonprofitspenttimeand$$$- basedontheTMAresults
Suggestions:
• NCHMAstatementontheproperuseofTMAwithinourModelContentStandards/Definitions
• Membersbeawareofthemisuseofsuchreportswithourclientsandlocal/regionaldevelopmentpartners
• EncouragetheauthorsofthesereportstolearnmoreaboutNCHMAmethodsandjointheorganization
IllustrativeMap
(notarealdeal)
Background on Fair Market Rents
•Generally calculated as 40 percentile of rents for movers in the last 15 months.
•Single metro-wide standard
Background on Small Area FMRs
•Attempts to address flawed nature of FMR
•Localize Fair Market Rents via ZIP codes
•A way for a housing choice voucher (HCV) to move to a higher opportunity zone
Case Study 1Washington, D.C.Small Area FMRs
Case Study 2San Diego, Calif.Small Area FMRs
Areas “Postponed”
Areas “Postponed”
Atlanta-SandySprings-Marietta,Ga.Bergen-Passaic,N.JCharlotte-Gastonia-RockHill,N.C.-SCChicago-Joliet-Naperville,Ill.ColoradoSprings,Colo.
FortLauderdale-PompanoBeach-DeerfieldBeach,Fla.FortWorth-Arlington,TexasGary,Ind.Hartford-WestHartford-EastHartford,Conn.
Jackson,Miss.Jacksonville,Fla.Monmouth-Ocean,N.J.NorthPort-Bradenton-Sarasota,Fla.PalmBay-Melbourne-Titusville,Fla.Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington,PA-NJ-DE-MDPittsburgh,Pa.Sacramento–Arden-Arcade–Roseville,Calif.SanAntonio-NewBraunfels,TexasSanDiego-Carlsbad-SanMarcos,Calif.Tampa-St.Petersburg-Clearwater,Fla.UrbanHonolulu,HawaiiWashington-Arlington-Alexandria,D.C.-Va.-Md.WestPalmBeach-BocaRaton-DelrayBeach,Fla.
HUD Conducts Study
•Net loss of units potentially available to HCV holders
•Presented administrative burden on PHAs
HUD Suspends to Program Through 2019•Program still in effect for Dallas metro area
•Final review from HUD due in 2018
•PHAs are allowed to opt-in
