tarbiat modares university9-adelman, irma & sherman, robinson (1988) macroeconomic adjustment &...
TRANSCRIPT
-
��� ��� �� ���� ��� ��/��/��
����� ��� � �� � ��� ��� ����� ����
)���� ���� � ���� !"��#�(
%��� &�'� (�� )��* ��+,� -
.��/0
�� ���� ��� �� �� ��� � ����� ����� ��� ���� ���� �� �� � �! "#$��� �%&� . (��)*�� +� ���*$�#�
����� ,��$� ) ��� �. /��$0� �� (�� �2. . 3�$4 ��� �*��5� �*���� �*���� 6�*� 7*��8 �� �*8 9�*� �*�� :�;� . �
��4 ��. �&��< =�> ?�%8 . *��) �� ��� �0�4 �. �@���� 6 ����5� �8 �A���2 �� " �*�4 �*�� (&*8 �*. �*�34� .
�� ��;#. �� ���� 7��C :5$2� ?����D �)�$�� �� ���5� ���� �� E�� ��0� �FG. . �� �� � �! ���� 7�
-
�
� :5$2� ?��R ����� �3�� �. :D ��U �� �� aQD ��3%�. �@�M ���< 6� /&��*� �� �*�� (&*8 "��*. E�H b�2 ?
��8 �&�� ?:�! /3D �� ���5� ���� �� X�N$�� :�@� o�� X*&��5$� �*. � �*&�
����D ���< 6��� � :5$2� �\�M �� �. 6���%\. �� 7p��. ��� ��� . �� I�� ���5� . )%�R 7C��� �� ��� D �� +��*�
��;#. �� :5$2���FG..
4( ��� ����� �����5��
. ���� ���� � �! 6��� ��$
-
�
��9� :�5;� <6 �R :�! �I�U /��$0� ��] ��A. �� :�$%R�� �*%R . *8 ���� �*. �� �� �*�)� �*�� �� +� 6���***�5� �
X)R�� ^4. X�� �� �U�� �. �2. ��PC��� 7�#. j�4 �**. �4��� .��).� �**�� �� 7�Q$�� �O�� ��)� +��*R �$� 6��*�
#�4. �&��;$U���� . �� &��).� ��� �� ����C��� +� 6��� �P �2.. �*�� �� 7�Q$�� :D ��U �� �*� ��)*.� 6��*� �*4���
�$2�� X�3� X#�4. �&���� ��@I� �. )�4 �V���2. .
�� ���� =��2>? ��� J��X ��&��FR �� :�! �I�U :�$%R X��. ��� �*R X���� �@*��� ���*#. s���� � :�*! ���*.
�$�� X�%$0&� . :�! ���. �� X)R�� ^4. �\
-
�
�� ���5� )�4 #$��� ����U =A� ?:�! /3D ���5� . [�%$� ?���k4 ��� S�� �%R . +��*. �. 7C��� ��� 9�� (�!
�� �� /3D � :�! J��C �U�� �� �2. .�� � �! 6��k4 �@��� ? �*���� ���*� �� :�*! J��*C �U�� +��. �. 9��
������� . :�! J��C �U�� X����! E�#Q� [$�� ��� ���M +�����! ���k4�� �*� �k4 �� +� 6; X3. �*4��C . �R��**L
�� +� �� ���5� [M�� �R �*\���U �� T�U X�**%R �. ?�4�2 %R �*% . *.� +� 6��*��5� ��0*� �*����A. � �*%�. (�*! T
��� u�GF� .�� ��M� �. �4�� E��� �.� (��)�� �� �� �� �$@��� �#M�� T.� +�)�� �. � �! 7��
-
�
(��)�� ?X���. ��M� ��@I� �� �� 7�#. j�4 �. ��� :D ��U �� � I�� ^��� ���� �� �\) ��� 6��� � ��.�� ���k4�( �� �� TR XI�� �. ���PC . � �*! �*��� :*;4� �*. �*@��� 7�*#. j�*4 (&*R
��0;4�? �\ �� �I�U �%%� �R �%%R ?�%*2. �*%�. (�*! T*.� � *� � � �*! X#$*���
��� X���U . ��� #$��� ��� �P X �4���4 ����D X&��5$� �. . �*%�. (�! T.� ��] ��� �. ��RP� X#$��� �C� ��
�%%� ?�$�� sQ�� 7�k$%� ��] � �I�U �*� ��RP*� X#$*��� � ��*. �*&��< �;_� [�2 X���� �� �*��5� w*U. �*4���
1. Mehtzer, 1995.
2. Mishkin , 2001 and Gertler, & Gilchrist, 1994.
Dow
nloa
ded
from
eco
r.m
odar
es.a
c.ir
at 1
6:13
IRD
T o
n T
uesd
ay J
une
15th
202
1
https://ecor.modares.ac.ir/article-18-9740-fa.html
-
�
��5$� ���C ����D X& . 6��k$4� T�R T��@� T� � �. ��#4 �� ��? ��U �I�U �%%� � ��� � 7�2 X ��� �*. #$���
����D X&��5$��_%< �� ��2.
��)%�R T.�� �� X��� �. �R �4��$@� & �� �%�@� =A� #$���? (��)�� �*@��� �*I�U (��)*�� [*M�� :�! /3D ����
�� :�! ���C? 4 �3�$4 �� ����� +� :;4� �. � �$�� (&R � �@� 7�#. j� �*�� �*. ?�*�� �&��< (��)�� �� �� � X��PC
:5$2� [����) ���� 7��C( ����� � �� �.� ��;#. �4���. �*� �K*�A� l�*& ��� �. ���$�� �� �M��. "�08 ���� ��
��� .��34� ��4 "��PC ����� ��;#. �. ��) 7�#. j�4 (&8 +�L.
.� ��� �*��C �*k4 �� +��*� �� ��� ,���2 � ����� ����� ��;#. �. � �! ���� X��PC�� X��. :4R �� �\Rc. � ��* ��
�� � (��)*�� �� 7��� +� �*���� ,��$� ?uGF� 7��� ^� �� ��0;4� � �! ���� :�U� �R ��� ��� :4R ���$�#�
�&� �� (&R �� ��� /��$0� ��� �. �3�$4 . �R ��*L �*�� �*R X���*�� ���*@� (&*R [M�� ����� ��O4�� �� (��)��
���C �� ?�4��� ���� ��� ,< .��. �&��< =�> ?�4�. �. 6�� 7��8 �� ����� ����� �8 9�� ��� :�;� . �3�$4 ���.
E��? �� � �! ���� � �R X���4 �R�F� j�4 (��)�� � X���. j�4 (&R ���� �� �4���)�4 �)�$�� ��*. �� ����D
�*2. �$*2�� :;4� �. ���� ����� X��. �� ���� 7��R ��%� ?�4�����D � �$4� X#$
-
�
�� 6�k4 +� �. #%� ?��2 :�$%R � ���@� �$�� ��2 . �� � �I�U ��4��� ���\�U �� �P j�*4 �� T*�R ��*A. :�*! XI
��4 t�@%� 7�#. ��2 .
�O�� �Cp�� ?�@��� :D �� X&�N$�� �*� :�! J��C �U�� �����. �� 6�� 7��R 64��4 ��M� �*2.c . ��
. 7�#. j�4 �$��C �k4 �� ?X�$�� ��%L ��M� T�H� ��� :�! X���#O4 �>�� �%�)& +��%U �2. . �*�� �*�#� �$�4 ���
�� �� �R �! ����� ����!4 �U�� . �#M�� �*� �$��C 7���4 :�! XI�� �.� =��F� �#M :�! X����� ���k4 �� ��*2.
�@��� X&HR 6��N. /& 6�� &��FR ��� ��) � ���� ?+�$<�… (�� X���#O4 �P* ?�*�4 :�*! 6��N*. /& � ��2
:�! X���#O4 �%�)& �� �$� C� � �0& )�4 X�k$4� E��� j�4 *\\� � ��*. 7�*#. X*#< ,���2 ��� �%4��� T�$0� � �! � �� �%%R :;4� . X�*M h0D ��;#. �. �;04 X� ����� 64��M �R �$��
�� +F4 �Q%� T�@ � t�U �&�? �� XM �. �Q%� �� #$��� x�4 ��� X��O�! ���PC. X*#4��M ?E��� �O�� 6�;U �.
����� X��� �� ���� ��� �� /��$0� ��A. � ���� �� X�N$�� �2� � �&�� �%Rf .
^�%�� �� �� 7�Q$����)3� 7��� X�)M� �. E��� �4�� � X�"& ���N� ? TO4� ^�%��– �34�C �R �4��*��C� �*A.�� ^�
�����. �N$�� X��\R X&��5$� � E��� ��.�� �%8A< =�N� � �@�3� /& ^�%�� � ? �� �� E��*� "��P*! ��� ����.
F4 /& �4; � ��F8 X��. :�! �I�U �2�?��� +7��� �� ��� 7��. �%$� :�! /3D � E��� �A.�� �D � �� X& .
� �! X&��5$� � E��� ?�� �� l�2 ��. �A.�� ��R�� � ^�)�� ? 7�R ?�\�2 X&��FR �� X&����. ^�%�� �� 7�Q$�� .
$0;�& ��< ?��� +F4 � �� ���� �)�$�� �2� ?�\� :�! J��� (&R?� �! �2� 6�� 7��R �� E��*� � �*� �� l�*2 ?
&��FR ��� �%$0& T.�$� b;��� �L� . �� E��� �$�� 7�%%R ���@� T�U ���$�#� +��%U �. �)�$�� 6����5� �*2. . ��
��� ���� ��� � &��FR ) 7�R X%_$�� �. ( �%@� ��A. �)�$�� 7��� +F*4 T*�@ � t*�U E��*� 6��*��5� �. �;04 X���
��� . � t�U 7�R �� �� ��� �����2 �� �� 6����5� �. �;04 &�)�$�� T�@ . �A.�� /& E��� �. �)�$�� T**�@ � t�U
�&� �� +F4 �� �� 64��4 . X��� �%@� . �)�$�� 6����5� ���� �� E��� [���� ��� �. �� �3�� +��4 �� �� �� �*%R .
�)�� /]��\U ��� ��� �\� :�! J��� (&R �I X#$��� 6�� 7��R �� �@��� �)�$�� (�? (FR +��. ���! ��G.
���C �� �� (��)�� [M�� ?�R X���4 XI�� . *#$��� (��)�� T�U ���$�#� ��FR �#L ��� �� E��� �� �24 X#R�2
��� 7��. �R ���C �� E��� �. �3%� �)����< ��A. . ��FR �� ���� ��) ̂ *�)�� X%_$�� �. ( �*2� �*. b�*.�� X#R�*2
� :�! �I�U ���$�#T�U 6��*��5� ^*�)�� �� *�� ?�*�� 7��*. 6�*� 7��R �� �L � 6�� �%\. �� �L ����� X#R�2
��� 7�2 7��� u�GF� E��� �� /#� T�U HR �I�U.
� �8 "�O�� /#� �\K0��"��PC � �! ���� �� �$� �� ?�%8 � *� �$<� �*� �N*$�� �*2. . �*�� �*���.
�R ��I��" � �! ���� ��*#&O%. �*. ��< =A� �� �*L� �*8 � *� �����*� ?�%$0*& ���� �� �*� ���$F*�. "? ��
1. Park, y.(1970).
2 . Joyce , (1991). 3. Obstfed , (1989). 4 . Fry , (1995). 5. Domac, (1998).
6 . Agenor and Hoffmaister, (1997).
Dow
nloa
ded
from
eco
r.m
odar
es.a
c.ir
at 1
6:13
IRD
T o
n T
uesd
ay J
une
15th
202
1
https://ecor.modares.ac.ir/article-18-9740-fa.html
-
�
��� 7�2 ���� "��� 6@ A�c . �. ̂ ���K� v
. ����� ?7�#. j�4 (��)�� . �R ��� ��� �. �k$4� �*��@� �*. X��P*C
�
-
�
���! E��� X#� [D�R � �\;���6 ]W� !8R ]W� ^9,
"#. u<2
�2��� 7��U)=(
"#. u<2
�2��� 7��<)=(
:�! /3D ):�� ���\��(
:�! �;2 ):�� ���\��(
�O%���4 ):�� ���\��(
:�
g g �&� ,��$�
gg g g �&� ,��$�
g gg 7��� ,��$� ̀
g gg g 7��� TR ,��$�
P<� :4����+���� X)8�� 4. ��
� �� �M��. � � ���� �. b�.�� m���U �O%���4 ���� �2� �$Q4 "&����� (��)�� �� �24 ?��
-
��
����� �%�#. �>�N< (G. ��. ��4. /$0�� 6��;$U� � (G. ����U )+� �$0.�� X&�#4 � � �� (S�� �. �;04
����R ����� #FG. ��� X�N$�� X#$� @� �� 6��> C��� . 7�Q$�� �� +� X�N4� 6��� � � �� X&��4 �C��$0C
��� 7��� s�� ��R��] (G. ��� �. �� 6��;$U� ?�.%� �� .. �� 6��;$U� :�@� +��M ��$.� ��� ��� ��� /& 4� tr� � �
�%�)& �2� �� �� �� � �� X&�#M��� 6��< � HR ���� �I�U . X&���!�2�� �&��< �. �� ����� .
�&�. ��H. �2� 7��r� . �0��� �� � �� X& ��4. /$0�� �)4 �� X&)�4 ��� �$�4 ���& ��� . ��A. �4H� � ��
,��$�U� ?��< X#&��r� /3D �� �$F�. �.��. 7�4� �k4 ���� 7��� :�� E�� �� m;���� � ��� 7��R ����� 6��;$
7��r� �~4. /$0�� ����� 7��. �Q%� � ��.
W��X4 :�_�D KA� ���� ^'� � .�7� .�6�� ���� � ):�� ���\��(
�;04
�. �&�.
7��r�
� ��
/#�
�&�.
� ��
7�4�
7��r�
� ��
7��r�
� ��
�&�.
� ��
�;04
�. �. �&
7��r�
� ����]
/#�
7��r�
��]
� ��
7�4�
7��r�
� ����]
��] 7��r�
� ��
��] �&�.
�$ �� :�
/e d` cc c ./ d dc g �&� ,��$�
/c f d` cfce dd / ddd cf �&� ,��$�
/d dc` ec / cfdcf cc ec 7��� ,��$�
f`ce
fce` deed c c cd cfc cecc 7��� T8 ,��$�
P<� :+���� X)8�� 4. ��4 ����
� �L�C ���N< (G. �&�. ����. ���� 7��� ���D d �>��
��� �$2�� �2� �4H�.��� �$2�� "���2 �Q%� �2� 7��� ��N< (G
�&� �� ��df��� 7��. �>�� . [���� ��� �..7��U (�4 �$ �� (G. �;$U� ���� �� �>�N< (G �$2�� X����.
,��$� ��A. X��PC 7��r� �� �>�N< (G. /#� �>Z< ��A.��� 7��. �>�� ? ��� D �� ���$#. ��
,���2 6��;$U� TR �� �>�� �� � �� � ��� 7��R 7�Q$�� T.�� ��c7��r� �>�� ?X��PC � �&C �� �>��
6��;$U�7��� nN$�N< (G. �O�ZU �. X��PC��� � ����� ,���2 �� ?
X�M #$� @� ��� ��� �. �O%���4 ��� �� �C�). (G. ?� ����] X#$� @� �;04 �4�� �. �M�� .�� 2��. +��M ���
�� /& �� �N$�� ���. �R 7����C ������C #FG. �$Q#4 �.%� hzM � �&� ���� ���.
Dow
nloa
ded
from
eco
r.m
odar
es.a
c.ir
at 1
6:13
IRD
T o
n T
uesd
ay J
une
15th
202
1
https://ecor.modares.ac.ir/article-18-9740-fa.html
-
��
W��X U( ���� !� W� `�5X� �8+6 ):�� ���\�� ̀�>�� (
:�! /3M �;04
�� �� �.
�O%���4 �;04
�� �� �.
�;2 �;04
�� �� �. :�!
���� �. �\� �� ��
�.:� e e dcc �&� ��O4��
c e d ddc 4�� �&� ��O
c cdf e e ��O4��`f
c e dd ddcf 7��� T8 ��O4�� P<� :+���� X)8�� 4. ��4 ����
�R :�! J��C �U�� ���� ���. :�! /3D �. �� �� X�M J��� /�0�� ���? )�4 X�N$�� X#$� @� J��C ��;�
�0& . �� �;04 ��� �� �k4 ���� 7���/d �&� �� �. c/ �&� :�� ���4 �� ��� �$2�� (��)�� . �� ��� D ��
�&� ��. �;04 ��� � � ��� 7��. c.�. �M�� . (��)�� ���N< (G. T��� ?? � (&R
�� �]� 7��. ��� X#$� @� X�� �. �R�D � �O%���4 =�M�� ��2 . ���� ���. �� 7�#. X#�N< ��] +C�%&� ��4. /$0�� (��� ��H. ��0.� � ���� �;04 ��� �� ��H. �&��. . X�� �� X#$� @�
%$0& o�4�?� :5$2� � �� �� �U�� +����C �%R � )%� �. ,���2 ��� �U��3� ��. �&���� dd �>��
��� 7��. ..%.�� #$��� �2� ��O4�� ��� � �0�.c�2. �>�� . �� �2��� 7��U ���� �2� ,��$� ��� D ��
7��� ���&df��� �>�� . �2��� 7��U ���� u<2 ��R��� 6����5� ��. lZ$ +����� ��34ce ̀ce.
d`P<� +�& .
Dow
nloa
ded
from
eco
r.m
odar
es.a
c.ir
at 1
6:13
IRD
T o
n T
uesd
ay J
une
15th
202
1
https://ecor.modares.ac.ir/article-18-9740-fa.html
-
��
W��XJ(�'�>� � ��a� [D�R
��8��� 6����5�
���� u<2
�2��� 7��<
��8��� 6����5�
7��U ���� u<2
�2���
��8��� u<2
#$��� �. �F�
�F� u<2
#$��� �.
6����5�
:�! u<2
ce=c
����5� 6
�� �� u<2
ce=c
:�
dd c d d de f` ce
f e c de e cd cec
f c cd ced
ef ec d` cee
cf cf c d cef
cff ccd c c f cc` ce
dcf cf d f ff c` ce
ee de dc f ` ce
e d e ce
fc ec e c c ce
dd dc fd ccc c ce
d cc cdf cec
e fe d dd df d ced
cc ce cde ee ef c cee
cdd dd c ff f f cef
dd d de ce
d ec d ec ec f ce
ecc ee edd c dc ce
ee fdc e f fe e ce
fee ec ce cdf cd ce
ffd d ee cd cd ce
dd ce c cd cf cec
c d cc c cf ced
d ccdc c c c cee
fff d cfcf dfe d cd cef
P<� :4 ����+���� X)8�� 4. ��
b( .��� c��� �� X���. j�4 ?���� X&��5$� ?���C ���� 7�2� ���� T;� X#$�0� �� �R X�k4 � X��.�R 6�.�3� S�� �.
)�� �� �2� j�4 �( ��� � ����� ����� �. � �! ���� �� :�$4� X&��5$� ���$�#� �� 7�#. j�4 � �$��� 6��k$4� ?�� �%2..
�'�>� ��>? d#�: 7��� �� X&Q\$G� �X�#2 ���N� 6��< � HR ���� u<2 �\�M �� ? &HR ���� u<2 �� �� 7�%%R T��@� u<2 � �4�$<� +��C�R �)�$�� u<2 ?�2��� 7��U X#. u<2 ?7�%%R �� �� 6��< �
�\
-
��
;�
� X��. X��. ?�2��� 7��< =A� �� 6��< � &HR ���� ?���N� 6��< � &HR ���� u<2 � X#. u<2 �;�
� X��. � 7�%%R �� �� =A� �� 6��< � &HR ���� ?7�%%R �� �� ���� u<2 �;�
�
7��U �� �$��C �k4 �� :�� ��� X& 7�%%R ����� � �2��� 7��U =A� �� #$��� ?�2��� ��2 . ���� u<2 6�Q� X&HR �. 6� � ?J��� �. 6� � ?�$ �� X& �4��� �
-
��
�V$��� ��%� fd/ fd/ fc/ fce/ e/ fc/
P<� : +���� ��� )R��
- (j(���B�� %�� ����>6 k�8��� ����
�*. *#4� X�� �*.�� 6��*��5� ?�3%��N*$�� X�O � �� 7�2 v
X&��5$� ��. ,.��� �� �� ����. ��k%� �.
7�2 :��4 ��R��� �����4 S�� ��� �$��C ���� �0��� ����) X&�����4c � � .( X&�����4c � � e �&� �� +F4
�*2� � �*\�� �R
���� �O%���4 . X&�����4 S�� �. ��%q�&f � � ��$0*� �*A.�� �R �QC +��� �� �;0*4 � �*%�M [��*I ��*. ��
��*. �N*GF� �*A.�� *�� ���� ��*M� X�*��. j�4 � [��I ��� ��. S��@� �A.�� � �\
�� ��
� ,<
���
�>��
�%�
M [
��I
̀ ` `
`
`
��� ,
< ��
� �>
��
�O%���4 �2�
Dow
nloa
ded
from
eco
r.m
odar
es.a
c.ir
at 1
6:13
IRD
T o
n T
uesd
ay J
une
15th
202
1
https://ecor.modares.ac.ir/article-18-9740-fa.html
-
��
���>6M : �;�X h�i( ���� !� �\;���6 �8+6
���>6S :���C�� <6 � �;�X h�i
���>6j :�" �� ���� � ��� .�H N;� !;�5� ^'�
���>6V :�\;���6 � ��� .�H N;� !;�5� ^'�
m(b(��6 � %�>A� N� .��n��� ��� ���\�
X&��5$� 6��� +�)�� � �#M ����. ��k%� �.� �! X& ���� ��� ������� ����� �. ��� � +���� ��
� ��@� 6@.�� T���D J�� �� 7Q$�� . � 7�2 �D��� �Q\$G� X&�O �)OLS ( 7��� ��f ̀ce�4� 7�2 �����. .
X&��5$� . &���4< �>��?X����� :�� ^&� W%! /#� � �%�M [��I ?��� ,< �� �$�R ����� �$0.�� X&��5$�
# ���� T��F� �� �N$�� X&��5$� ���� �� ?�&� t�@%� X��.4 � ��� X#N<2 �. �� � �! ���� 6��� �R X
�� T�2 ?�%%RX#$��� ?�\
-
��
��X&���4< �>�� ���@� X��. ��% )X�#2 (��� ,< ���? �%�)& /#� h�\>D �� 7�Q$�� . 7��C �& �%�)& ,��$�
^&� �&) ��.�Ic (��� �$��C ���� �0��� ���� ��� ,< . � 7�2 �;�
� X�#2 ���4< ^� �%�)& ,��$� � .
o(����� ^3 .�H N;� !;�5� l��� :)& ,��$� �.0D ��O4�� �%�^&� X& W%! � ^� ,��$� �. /�0��
��� 7�2 �$��C �k4 �� ����� /R 7��C W%! �%�)& ,��$� +��%U �. X�#2 ���4< ^� �%�)&.
p (.�R �;�� K�� �>� : 7�2 ^��Q� �%�. (�! T.���] � �%�. (�! T.� )M �� �. �\RGDP : �@��� �\
-
��
�� @� ��� X& �� ?�%$0& X�� ����] /& m; ] �R 7��. ���C . ��� �� �L�C� �@�M �& �� ��� � ����� ���5� �4��
���� ���� +ZR �N$�� X&��5$�? X�N$�� X&��5$� ��D4 �� �FG.�� ��� �� – �U�$M� /& ���&����� . ��� T�2 �O � �� ?����� ����� � ��� �. � �! ���� 6��� ����. X��.
��� 7�2 �$��C �k4 �� ��� 6��> �. X����� ���! :�� ^&� W%! �%�)& �;04 /#� ,��$�:
@��( �� lD � �����6�D �8+6: � ����. X��. . X&���4< �>�� ��5$� ?���� ����� ��@I� �. � �! ���� ��
�\
f`ce �2. �� ��� y�2 �. ) 7��� )$4��! T�� ?�4��� �� �� �*&� .
. X�N$�� �2� H�� ?&����� ��O4�� (��)�� ��M� " �� �3�� &���4< ��. X�$F�. X����� �\>� �4 ?�%R" �*. �M�� .
�*�� X�$F*�. ���4< ���@� � �$��C ���� X��H. =A� �� )�4 ��� ,< &����� (��)�� . 7���& �;04 ��� ,< �� 7�Q$��
�� ���� +� �4��C . %���4 �2� j�4 (��)�� ���� �� ��� �k$4� T.� �3�$4 )�4 �O . �3�$4 �O%���4 �2� (��)�� �R 34� ��
�� �$Q4 X&����� (��)�� � � � �� �G� �2� �*� ?�0*�4 �*���� /R 7��C �Q4 �. �R �� �>< �@���� ��0� ?�2.
�� �%R . ����� � 7�#. j�4 �. ��5$� ��� 6����5� :D ��U �� ����.%. ?��� ��� �. X��PC �*��� X��P*C��� ��0�
��. �&��< ���0� :@$2� � �� �� �. � �! . /*R 7��*C �*��< 6��� �. E��� ���� �� �$F. � �! ��0;4� X#$��� ��
�� �� ����� �� �3%� ���� X&���4< �;04 (��)�� �. � ���PC ��2 . $4 �����3 ����*� 6�k$4� �R E�� � �@� �� X��C
& �� �%�. (�! T.��� ��V� )�4 ?�%R �� v
/ ��2 .
o(�;�X h�i
Dow
nloa
ded
from
eco
r.m
odar
es.a
c.ir
at 1
6:13
IRD
T o
n T
uesd
ay J
une
15th
202
1
https://ecor.modares.ac.ir/article-18-9740-fa.html
-
��
�%�M [��I ?����� ����� �. � �! ���� ��� ����. X��.c (GINI) u *<4 �*� �� X*&��5$� �� �@.� 6��> �.
����D �\ �. :
GINI=455.8+4.7*LOG(GDPM76)+4.99*LOG(M2/GDPM76) - 0.47*UNRA -0.34TREND
(5.4) (2.0) (- 2.9) (-1.9) (-3.1)
R2=0.70 DW=2.1 F-statistic=15.5
���3� X�.��.4 u<2 . ����D �� �� /��$0� �A.�� " ���� X�N*$�� �*2� �*� �� X�.��.*4 (��)�� �. ��R� . �*L�C�
���� ����� �KA. 6����5� �. 7�2� X��� 6@ A� �$Q4 X&����� ���&� �. �M�� . �3�$4 ��� �� �4��� +�� �� �� �
�0�4 �k$4� �� ��� X�N$�� �2� �� . �$F�. (��)�� �� �*���� �$F�. )R��� . ?�� �� �� �NGF� =A� X��� �. �O%���4
��� 7���& �@�M . �*� +F4 �%�M [��I . ��� �%@� � � �k$4� T.� ��] �A.�� X���. j�4 �*&� . �*3�$4 ��*%L �� X�
�� �*2� E*O%& �*. X�N$����] X& E)�4�� ���� �� ����� /R X#&��C�� � �� �$��D X#$��� J�$0C �. +���
��� �;04 X���..
p(l��� � ^3 ����� �� �����6�D �8+6 !;�5�
X����� ���! ^&� W%! �� X�#2 X&���4< �%�)& /#� ,��$�)(FC �R ��� �N<2 /*& � �*���� ����� /&
���� �. �� �� ��� . �O%��*�4 ?�*\Df`cec� ��� 7�2 �V��� T�z �:
FC = 103 -5.4*LOG(GDPM76) + 2.4*(DUM5769*LOG(GDPM76)) (3.4) (-5.2) (4.4) – 2.8*LOG(M2) + 3.3*LOG(CPIF76) – 1.2*DUM57 + [AR(1)=0/3] (-4.3) 4.9) (-2.7) (-2.3)
R2=0.78 DW=1.99 F-statistic=11.6
. ����� . X#&��C ?�O%���4 (��)�� � X�N$�� �2� :;4� �. � 7�*2 �����*
-
��
#$*��� 6�*� 7��R � 6���%\. �� X�N*$�� X ��*� �*� �� �*���� X�.��.*4 � �*�� ,���*2 ��0*� W%*! �� T���*D
������ ����� �%���� ?+���� �N$�� �$<� �M��. �R?�%&� ?X��PC �*R ���. *&���4< �*����� J��� �� �*��5� �\K0*� �
7p�� ���&� �4��� X�.
7��U ��0� �� T��F� ���. X#&��C �� ���� X&���4< �� X� �$*2�� /]�*�\U �*R ��*#&��C �� �*O�� ��0� � �%&�
�4��� ��R4 ����� ?T52 . #4� ���< 6��� +��. ���! �O�� 6�;U �. �*�� �*�� 7��*R /R*D ���4*< �*. �� . �*�$ �� #%� #$��� ��� �R ��34� �.3�� � :5$2� ?��R ����� � �*. :*D ��*U �� a*QD
��3%�. �@�M ���< 6���.
:�! (G. �� b;��� :4R ���$�#�– HR ? �%@������ ��� �� �>�N< (G. X��PC���. HR ��*� �� 7�*#. j�4 �
��� � �! (G. . �� :�! �@��� XI�� . HR �I�U ? b;��� ��� X�@. ��0� �2. . 4� ���� �� � �! ��0; �4��� /*&
�*�� X��*. �\52 X#$>�� �3�� ���� �� /& � 6��;$U� �. ���� 7��C ���$�� ,���2 ��;#. � 7�#. j�4 (&R ���� ��
���C ��� +�2 ���� �. �3%� ?7��C. �*� ?�@��� ����� �. +� �Q%� 6���� � E��� (��)�� . �O�� l�� �� �*k$4� +��*�
�5� . �R �2��� � ���C ���� ��� �� �$F�. ���� 7��C ��@I� ?����� ����� ,���2 .:4R ���$�#� �*��� X��PC��
��� ,���2 ��;#. �. � �!? �. ��� ����� ,��$� ��� & . 6�*� 7*��8 �� �*���� �*���� �8 9�� ��� :�;� . �3�$4 ���
��. �&��< =�> ?�4�. �..
� ��%q�& �� � �! ��� � �� �4��� �R X���4 �R�F� j�4 (��)�� ����)�4 �� �*R �4��C�*R ��*. �� ����D �)�$��
�2. �$2�� :;4� �. ���� ����� X��. �� ���� 7��R ��%� ?�4�����
-
��
�%�M [��I ?��� ,< ��� X&���4< �>�� T�2 �O � �� [ � �� ����� ����� �. � �! ���� 6��� ����.
���! :�� ^&� W%! �%�)& �;04 /#� ,��$� ��� +F4 X����� 6��*� (&*8 � X�.��.*4 ���F*� �O%���4 �R �&�
�3�$4 ��%L ?���� 7���#. ���� "&���4< �;04 ���< ?)�4 � E��� �. �O%���4 (��)�� /��$0� � �;_� ��� �. �M�� . X�
7�#. �*�� �k$4� T.� ����� ,���2 �� ��H. ����� . X#&��C �$F�. X�%� . �� T*>D W�*$4 �*k4 ���*� X�*O � �����*.
�� ��� ���F� �. �3%� �� �� (��)�� �R ��� +� X��C ���C . "#N*<2 ��H. (F8 ��G. �k$4� T.� ��] �3�$4 ���
����� ����� "�.��.4 �. �;04 ��� ) &����� ��O4�� �2� �. �;04 "��P! (F8 . �0��� ��c ( �$��� :D ��U �� �
�� �2� 6��� +��. �2. . +� ����� E)�4�� � "�N$�� �2� �� �$Q4 X&����� [ ] (�4) �*%�)& "��P*! ��*� "*&
+� J�$0C �� � �� ( �*�� �\K0*� ��� T���U ���$�#� �� ?��� �2� �� �� E��� J�$0C +� T>D �8 . �*C� ��*%�� ��
����� �. � �! ���� "&�4��! /�~� ?�2. ����� ����� � ��� ��;#. l�& X�N*$�� �2� �%���� �� :5$2� � "��PC
�� 6���I �.� . E��� :�$%8 ) �$.�� X#$� @� J�$0C ���� �� Z_� ( :5$2� +��� �. �M�� ?�2� �� �� "#FG. ����
�� �R ��� ��#$��� �\�M �� ?����� ����� "�.��.4 � ��� �F�4 +��8 v
)�4 � �N$�� i\$G� 7�*#. �� �4��� "�*%�
�C�2. ��� "�N$�� �2� �� ���� 7�.
�� �� �%�M [��I �. X���. j�4 �k$4� T.� ��] ��� ���*! X*#&��C �� �* �� �$�*�D X#$��� J�$0C �. +���
�� �\�U �$Q4 ����� ��� �. �R X����� ��*;#. �*#M �� ����*� ,���2 �� X�N$����] X& E)�4�� [ � �� � ?���C
?+����. ��@I��� �$2�PC ��M� �. ��� �;04 ?��2.
. �@�M �� �� +��� (��)�� �#M �� [�%� X#$��� zG�� ?��%�� ��� X%;� �� �$F�. 7�Q$��T���U�� ��
�\�� �R �2�� �k$4� +����.� . �%@� +��. ���
�2 �&��< �$#. m��) � ����� ����� �R �0�4? �� �R ��� X����� �. �;04 ���� ����� �>�� (&R E�#Q� �. #%� ��\.
�4�����
-
��
9-Adelman, Irma & Sherman, Robinson (1988) “Macroeconomic Adjustment &
Income Distribution , Alternative Models Applied Economies “ Journal of
Development Economics , Vol. 29 , No. 1 , PP. 23-44.
10-Agenor, P. R. (1998), “Stabilization Policies, Poverty And The Labor Market“,
mimeo, IMF and World Bank.
11-Agenor P. R. and Hoffimaister A. W. (1997), “Money Wages And Inflation in
Middle– Income Developing Countries “, IMF Working Paper, December.
12-Alexander W. E. and Balino J. T. and Enoch C. (1995), The Adoption Of Indirect
Instruments Of Monetary Policy , IMF Washington DC, June.
13-Atkinson, T. (1975),“The Distribution of Wealth in Britain in the 1960s - the Estate
Duty Method Re-examined”, in The Personal Distribution (ed. J Smith), National Bureau
of Economic Research.
14-Blackwood,D . L. & R. G. Lynch (1994)“ The Measurement of Inequality &
Poverty : A Policy Marker’s Guide to the Literature “ World Development, Vol. 23,
No. 4 , PP. 567-578.
15-Barro R. (1978), “Unanticipated Money Output And The Price Level In The United
States “, Journal Of Political Economy, Vol. 86, pp. 549-80.
16-Barro Robert (1977), “Unanticipated Money Growth And Unemployment In The
United States “ , American Economic Review, Vol. 67, pp. 101-115.
17-Bulir A. (1998), “Income Inequality : Does Inflation Matter? “IMF Working Paper,
January.
18-Capie F, (1998) The Long-run Relationship Between Money and Prices Money Prices
and the Real Economy (eds: Wood, G) Elgar.
19-Cardoso, Eliana (1992), “ Inflation And Poverty “, NBER, Working Paper, No. 4006,
March.
20-Datt, G. and Ravallion M. (1996), “Why Have Some Indian States Done Better Than
Others At Reducing Rural Poverty? World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 1594,
April .
21-Datt, Gaurav & Martin Ravallion (1992), “Groth & Poverty Redistribution
Components of Change in Poverty Measures, A Decomposition With Application to
Brazil & India in the 1980s, Journal of Development Economics , Vol. 38 ,No. 2, PP.
275-295.
22-Domac I. (1998),“ The Main Determinants Of Inflation In Albania“ ,Washington DC,
the World Bank.
23-Dornbusch R. and Frenkel J. A. (1973),“Inflation And Growth: Alternative
Approaches “, Journal Of Money, Credit And Banking, pp.141- 560.
24-Easterly W. (1999), “ Inflation And The Poor “, IMF and World Bank.
25-Esterly, W. and Stanley Fischer, (2001), "Inflation and the Poor" Journal of Money,
Credit, and Banking, , Part 1, 159-178.
26-Fry, Maxwell.(1995), Money, Interest, and Banking in Economic Development, (2nd).
Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.
27-Garibaldi P. (1997), “The Asymmetric Effects Of Monetary Policy On Job Creation
And Destruction “, IMF Working Paper, April.
Dow
nloa
ded
from
eco
r.m
odar
es.a
c.ir
at 1
6:13
IRD
T o
n T
uesd
ay J
une
15th
202
1
https://ecor.modares.ac.ir/article-18-9740-fa.html
-
��
28-Gertler M. and Gilchrist S. (1994), “Monetary Small Manufacturing Firms“, Quarterly
Journal Of Economics, Vol. 109, pp. 309-340.
29-Horowitz A. W. and Weinhold (1998), “Household Characteristics And Income
Inequality During Inflationary Periods: Recent Evidence From Suriname“, World
Development, Vol. 26 , No. 2 , pp. 297 – 306 .
30-Huda, S. & PK. Md Motiur Rohman (1992), “On Some Measurements Of Poverty
“ Indian Economic Journal , Vol. 39 , No. 4 , PP. 57-65.
31-.Joyce J. P.(1991), “All Examination Of Objectives Of Monetary Policy In Four
Developing Economies “, World Development, Vol. 19 , No. 6, pp. 705 -709.
32-Knight, J.B. (1979), “Devaluation & Income Distribution in Less Developed
Economics “, Oxford Economic Papers, Vol. 28 , No. 2, PP. 208-227.
33-Mayer TH. And Sheffrin S. (1995), Fiscal And Monetary Policy, The International
Library Of Critical Writing in economics, An Elgar Refrence Collection
34-Meltzer H. (1995), “Credit Transmission Processes A Monetarist Perspective“,
Journal Of Economic Perspectives , Vol. 9, pp. 49-72.
35-Mishkin F. S. (2001) , The Economics Of Money , Banking And Financial Markets ,
6th
Edition , Boston : Addison Wesley.
36-Myint, H. (1971), Economic theory and under developed country, Oxford university
press.
37-Park, Y.(1970), The variability of velocity: An international comparison, IMF Staff
paper, No.6.
38-Obstfeld, M. (1993), Exchange Rate and the sterilisation problem: Germany, 1975-
1981, European Economic Review 21, pp. 161-189.
39-Perotti R. (1994), “Income Distribution And Investment“, European Economic
Review, Vol. 38, pp. 827 – 835.
40-Rezend, F. (1998), "Prospect for Brazil's Economy," International Affairs, 74, 3,
pp.563-576.
41-Romer, C. and Romer, D. (1998), “Monettary Policy And Well – Being Of The Poor
“NBER Working Paper, No. 6793, November.
42-Savvides A. (1998), “Inflation And Monetary Policy In Selected West And Central
African Countries“, World Development, Vol. 26 , No. 5, pp. 805 -827.
43-Sarel M.(1997), “How Microeconometric Factors Affect Income Distribution: The
Cross – Country Evidence “ , IMF Working Paper, November.
44-Siegfried N. A. (2000), “Monetary Policy And Investment In Germany,
Microeconometric Evidence For A German Credit Channel“, Hamburg University,
Department of Economics, August.
45-Soltow, L. and Van Zanden, J.L. (1998), Income and Wealth inequality in Nethlands,
16th
-20th
century, Het Spinhuis: Amesterdam.
46-Taylor Lance & Frank J. Lysy (1979), “Vanishing Income Redistributions“,
Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 6, No. 1, PP. 11-29.
47-Wood,G. (1998), Money, price and real economy, Cheltenham: Edward Elgar.
Dow
nloa
ded
from
eco
r.m
odar
es.a
c.ir
at 1
6:13
IRD
T o
n T
uesd
ay J
une
15th
202
1
https://ecor.modares.ac.ir/article-18-9740-fa.html
-
��
The Efects of Monetary Policy on Poverty and Income Distribution
( the case of Iran)
Soheila Parvin & Ehsan Taherifard1
Absteract Monetary policy is one of the most potent tools for managing the economy, so there is
useful qustion to ask if the monetary policy can be used as tool to reduce poverty. On
account of rising inequality, for a given level of income, leades to greater poverty, is also
should be mentioned. The aime of this paper is to empricaly investigate the role of
monetary policy in relation to reduce poverty and income inequality in Iran.
Most of existing literature on monetary policy and povrety focuses on short run effects.
Monetary policy can affect output, unemployment and inflationin. If poverty and
inequality respond to these variables, monetary policy can affect the poor conditions.
Also inflation and unanticipated inflation can redistribute income from cerditors to
debtors, so monetary policy can affect distribution through this chanel.
This paper examins the effect of monetary policy on poverty and inequality in Iran
through the regression equations during 1976 -2005. The results show that monetary
policy can not act as a poverty alleviation policy, and has opposit direction effects.
Expansionary monetary policy aimed to finance government budget deficit, which is
associated to expand demand side of economy, which its result is higher inflation.
Furthermore there is no link between monetary policy and interest rate, so these policeies
can not affect investment and empolymen, they have no supply side effects. The
monetary policy most directly affects average inflation. So the natural result of long run
inflation is more inequality. This leades to greater poverty.
JEL calssification No. E52, I32, O15, E31.
1 - Respectively, Associate Professor of Economics at Allameh Tabatabaee University & graduate in economics at Macroeconomics Bureau of Management and Planning Organization.
Dow
nloa
ded
from
eco
r.m
odar
es.a
c.ir
at 1
6:13
IRD
T o
n T
uesd
ay J
une
15th
202
1
https://ecor.modares.ac.ir/article-18-9740-fa.html