tana river delta land use plan

Tana River DeltaLAND USE PLAN

Connecting people for change

The preparation of the Land Use Plan for the Tana Delta and the accompanying Strategic Environmental Assessment has been funded by UKAid from the Department for International Development (DFID), the Ecosystem Alliance, the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds and the United States Fish and Wildlife Service.

TANA RIVER DELTA LAND USE PLAN

Authors:Peter Odhengo, Paul Matiku, Patrick Waweru, Dan Guda, Tom Kinara, Sammy Kathike, Eugene Mmyamwezi, Serah Munguti, and George Koyier

Edited by:Serah Munguti, Caroline Kabilu, Fleur Ng’weno, John Nyangena, Peter Nelson, John Mwacharo, Peter Odhengo and Paul Matiku

Design and Layout:John Mwacharo

Lead institutions:Governments of Tana River and Lamu Counties, Ministry of Land, Housing and Urban Development, The National Treasury and Nature Kenya

Collaborating Institutions:Ministry of Environment, Water and Natural Resources; Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries; Ministry of Information, Communication and Technology; Ministry of Planning and Devolution; Ministry of Land, Housing and Urban Development; The National Treasury; Ministry of Interior and Coordination of National Government; Government Agencies: Kenya Forest Service, National Environment Management Authority, Kenya Institute for Public Policy Research and Analysis; National Museums of Kenya, Tana and Athi Rivers Development Authority, Imarisha Naivasha Board; and Civil Society: Nature Kenya - The East Africa Natural History Society; the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds and the World Wide Fund for Nature.

Technical Advisor: Peter Nelson

GIS Expert: Dickens Odeny

Technical Advisor:Netherlands Commission for Environmental Assessment

Published by:The Tana River and Lamu County Governments

Tana River CountyP.O. Box 29-70101 GPO, Hola, [email protected] www.tanariver.go.ke

Lamu CountyP.O Box 74 – 80500, [email protected]

© 2014

Recommended Citation: Odhengo P., Matiku P., Waweru P., Guda D., Kinara T., Kathike S., Mmyamwezi E., Munguti S., Nelson P., and Koyier G. (2014). Tana River Delta Land Use Plan.

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NO. NAME ORGANIZATION 1. Anderson Koyo Imarisha Board – Naivasha 2. Paul Matiku Nature Kenya 3. Robert Ndetei World Wide Fund for Nature 4. Kenneth Waithiru Ministry of Finance 5. Benard Opaa National Environment Management Authority 6. Fred Omego Kenya Wildlife Service 7. Judith Nyunja Kenya Wildlife Service 8. John Nyangena Kenya Institute for Public Policy Research and Analysis; 9. Joan Gichuki Nature Kenya 10. Richard Fox Imarisha Board – Naivasha 11. Samuel Gitonga Tana and Athi Rivers Development Authority 12. Naftali Abuya Ministry of Environment, Water and Natural Resources 13. Patrick Adolwa Ministry of Planning and Devolution 14. Patrick Waweru Ministry of Land, Housing and Urban Development 15. Brian Waswala Kenya Wildlife Service 16. Daniel M. Mbithi Kenya Forest Service 17. Ernest Mwongela Nature Kenya 18. Serah Munguti Nature Kenya 19. Zephania O. Ouma National Environment Management Authority 20. George A. Koyier Ministry of Environment, Water and Natural Resources 21. Verity Mghanga Office of the Prime Minister 22. Emily Boro Office of the Prime Minister 23. Dan O. Oguda Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries 24. King’uru Wahome Ministry of Environment, Water and Natural Resources 25. Dickson O. Nyandiga Ministry of Information, Communication and Technology 26. Dr. K. I. Ondimu National Environment Management Authority 27. Robert Mounde Kenya Water Towers Agency 28. Peter Odhengo The National Treasury 29. Bahati Mwita Kenya Water Towers Agency 30. Eugene Mnyamwezi Ministry of Environment, Water and Natural Resources 31. Sammy Kathike Ministry of Land, Housing and Urban Development 32. Jane Kibwage Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries 33. Dickens Odeny National Museums of Kenya 34. Benjamin Tuikong Ministry of Information, Communication and Technology 35. Sam Kosgei Ministry of Energy and Petroleum 36. Patrick Oloo Ministry of Environment, Water and Natural Resources 37. David Gitonga Ministry of East Africa Affairs, Commerce, and Tourism 38. Tom Kinara Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries

Members of the Inter-Ministerial Technical Committee on Sustainable Management of Deltas in Kenya

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NO. NAME ORGANIZATION 1. Omar W. Buketa Tana River County Executive for Lands, Agriculture,

Livestock and Fisheries 2. Amina Rashid Masoud Lamu County Executive for Land, Physical Planning,

Infrastructure Urban Development, Water and Natural Resources

3. Sophia O. Wedo Tana River County Executive for Environment, Natural Resources and Wildlife

4. Abdi Bile Tana River County Executive for Cohesion and Special Programmes

5. Salim Mohamed Tana River County Executive for Water, Health and Sanitation

6. Anthony Macharia Ag. District Commissioner Tana Delta 7. Ali K. Ahmed District Development Officer – Tana Delta 8. Paul Njau District Development Officer -‐ Lamu 9. Judy Hamasa Agriculture Extension Officer, Tana Delta 10. Maurice Ochieng Physical Planning Officer, Tana River 11. Maurice Ogoma Fisheries Officer, Lamu 12. Dominic Mumbu Nature Kenya 13. Peter Munywoki District Livestock Production Officer’s Office – Tana

Delta 14. Swaleh Wario Orma Council of Elders 15. Hassan Barisa Wardei Council of Elders 16. Dabane SoSo Watha Council of Elders 17. Justin Nkaduda Pokomo Council of Elders 18. Said Botaya Farmers’ representative 19. Moses Jaoko Beach Management Unit – Freshwater 20. Hadija Bante Beach Management Unit -‐ Marine 21. Ijema Godana District Peace Committee 22. Said Nyara Conservation Groups representative 23. Margaret Hiribae Maendeleo ya Wanawake Chair-‐ Tana Delta 24. Mary Kaingu Maendeleo ya Wanawake -‐ Kipini 25. Zainab Golo District Livestock Marketing Council 26. Abdalla Bakero Ranchers Forum 27. Ayub Israel People with Disabilities representative 28. Aladdin Malibe Youth Representative 29. Mohamed Bworu Business Community representative 30. Ustadh Abdulahi Hajj Gudo Council of Imam Preachers in Kenya ; CDF Chairman

Garsen Constituency 31. Bishop Douglas Machafu National Council of Churches in Kenya 32. Maurice Karisa Maridhiano CBO 33. Stanley Robert Member of Parliament’s Office, Garsen Constituency 34. Yahya Ali Member of Parliament’s Office, Garsen Constituency 35. Mohamed Roba Senator’s Office, Tana River County 36. Abdulkadir Rashid

Mohammed Senator’s Office, Tana River County

37. Lennox C. Mbwana Planning Office, Tana River County 38. Hassan Roble District Peace Committee 39. Juma M. Mohammed Agricultural Sector Development Office 40. Odera George Nature Kenya, Tana Delta Office 41. Natasha J. Dulu Maendeleo ya Wanawake, Tana Delta 42. Fredrick Aloo Medium Term ASAL Programme (MTAP/NRM) Tana

River County 43. Nimrod Imani National Council of Churches in Kenya

Members of the Tana Planning Advisory Committee (TPAC)

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44. Ali Jillo National Security Intelligence Service, Tana Delta 45. Evans Juma Subcounty Livestock Production and Development

Officer, Tana Delta 46. Lilian Mudia Youth representative 47. Andrew Waweru Subcounty Planning and Development Officer, Lamu 48. Matthew Bwaboya Subcounty Planning and Development Officer, Tana

River 49. Vincent Osewe Physical Planner, Lamu 50. Jilo Kokani Tana Delta Conservation Network 51. Mohamed B. Athman Agricultural Extension Officer, Tana Delta 52. Dr. Ong’are D.O. Subcounty Veterinary Officer, Tana Delta 53. Hiribae Tufani Subcounty Planning and Development Officer, Tana

Delta 54. Dara Ali Abubakar WAYPRI CBO 55. Hussein O. Goricha Personal Assistant, Garsen Central Ward 56. Robinson Thuku Officer in Charge of Police Division, Tana Delta 57. Boaz M. Shiramba Agricultural Sector Development Support Programme,

Tana River County 58. Abaroba Barisa Office of the Governor, Tana River County 59. Kahindi Yeri National Environment Management Authority, Tana River

County 60. Hassan Roble Peace Committee representative 61. Salat Dakau Member of County Assembly, Tana River 62. Hadija Guya Women representative, Tana River County 63. Wilson Abashuba Golbanti Farmers Association 64. Hope Mwanyuma National Environment Management Authority, Tana River

County 65. Mohammed Roble Businessman 66. Rashid A. Were Assistant Deputy County Commissioner 67. Hussein Gobu Godana Member of County Assembly, Tana River

Members of the Tana Planning Advisory Committee (TPAC)













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TANA RIVER DELTA LAND USE PLANv

UNITS OF MEASUREMENTHa One Hectare (10,000 square metres)Km2 One hundred hectaresM3/sec Cubicmetrepersecond(measurementofriverflow)


LIST OF TABLES ................................................................................................................................................................................ xLIST OF FIGURES ........................................................................................................................................................................... xiiLIST OF ACRONYMS ................................................................................................................................................................... xiiiMESSAGE FROM TANA RIVER COUNTY GOVERNOR ...................................................................................................... xivMESSAGE FROM LAMU COUNTY GOVERNOR .................................................................................................................. xivFOREWORD .................................................................................................................................................................................. xviACKNOWLEDGEMENTS .......................................................................................................................................................... xviiPREFACE ...................................................................................................................................................................................... xviii

PART ONE: CORE DOCUMENTCHAPTER 1: THE ROLE OF THE TANA DELTA LAND USE PLAN ........................................................................................ 11.1 Introduction..........................................................................................................................................................................11.2 DevelopingtheContentoftheDraftPlan.....................................................................................................................11.3 StatusoftheTanaDeltaDraftLandUsePlan...............................................................................................................11.4 ConsultationontheDraftPlan.........................................................................................................................................11.5 SEAPreparationProcess....................................................................................................................................................1

CHAPTER 2: KEY PLANNING ISSUES ......................................................................................................................................... 32.1 Introduction..........................................................................................................................................................................32.2 Major Issues .......................................................................................................................................................................... 4

CHAPTER 3: VISION, GOAL, OBJECTIVES AND GUIDING PRINCIPLES .......................................................................... 83.1 Introduction..........................................................................................................................................................................83.2 TheVisionandGoal............................................................................................................................................................83.2 EstablishingGuidingPrinciples.........................................................................................................................................9

CHAPTER 4: NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL POLICIES ............................................................................................... 114.1 PolicyContext....................................................................................................................................................................11

CHAPTER 5: ANTICIPATING LONG TERM REGIONAL TRENDS ...................................................................................... 135.1 Introduction........................................................................................................................................................................135.2 Changes to 2030 ............................................................................................................................................................... 135.3 Changes from 2030 to 2050 .......................................................................................................................................... 135.4 KeyMessagesandRecommendationsforthePlan...................................................................................................14

CHAPTER 6: THE PLAN AREA AND PLANNING ZONES .................................................................................................... 156.1 ThePlanArea.....................................................................................................................................................................156.2 ExistingCharacterofthePlanningZoneswithintheDelta.....................................................................................186.3 ZoneswithSpecialFeatures...........................................................................................................................................256.4 PotentialLandUseswithinthePlanningZones.........................................................................................................256.5 LandUseClasses...............................................................................................................................................................27

CHAPTER 7: SCENARIOS AND SEA .......................................................................................................................................... 287.1 Introduction........................................................................................................................................................................287.2 ScenarioA–ContinuedDevelopmentofTraditionalLivelihoods.........................................................................287.3 ScenarioB–ACommercialandIndustrialApproach...............................................................................................297.4 ScenarioC–TheHybrid..................................................................................................................................................317.5 ConclusionsandRecommendations.............................................................................................................................33

CHAPTER 8: LAND USE STRATEGY .......................................................................................................................................... 348.1 Introduction........................................................................................................................................................................348.2 MethodologyandDevelopmentFramework..............................................................................................................348.3 HierarchyofPlanningStatements.................................................................................................................................368.4 OverarchingPlanningStatementsRelatingtoUpperDelta.....................................................................................368.5 OverarchingPlanningStatementsrelatingtoLowerDelta.....................................................................................378.6 PlanningStatementsRelatingtoLandUseClass.......................................................................................................38

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8.7 PlanningStatementsandRegulationsRelatingtoEconomicActivity..................................................................438.8 ClimateChange.................................................................................................................................................................44

CHAPTER 9: GUIDELINES FOR DEVELOPERS, THE PUBLIC AND DECISION-MAKERS ........................................... 459.1 Introduction.......................................................................................................................................................................459.2 TheRoleofDevelopers...................................................................................................................................................459.3 ThePublicandLocalCommunities..............................................................................................................................459.4 TheAuthoritiesandDecision-makers.........................................................................................................................46

CHAPTER 10: Governance ........................................................................................................................................................... 4710.1 Introduction.......................................................................................................................................................................4710.2 TheRoleofNationalGovernment................................................................................................................................4710.3 TheRoleoftheNationalLandsCommission.............................................................................................................4710.4 TheRoleoftheJudiciary................................................................................................................................................4810.5 TheRoleofCountyGovernment..................................................................................................................................4810.5 TheRoleofCommunitiesandIndividuals................................................................................................................... 4810.6 TheRoleofCivilSocietyandNon-GovernmentOrganisations..............................................................................4910.7 AdministrationoftheLandUsePlan............................................................................................................................49

CHAPTER 11: LINKS TO OTHER PLANS AND PROGRAMMES ........................................................................................ 5011.1 Introduction.......................................................................................................................................................................5011.2 RamsarManagementPlan..............................................................................................................................................5011.3 ProtectedForestsandGazettedAreas........................................................................................................................5111.4 WaterResources...............................................................................................................................................................5111.5 AgricultureandIrrigation................................................................................................................................................5211.6 Economic Development ................................................................................................................................................. 5311.7 CoastalPlanning..............................................................................................................................................................5311.8 ClimateChangeAdaptation...........................................................................................................................................53

CHAPTER 12: MONITORING AND EVALUATION OF THE PLAN ..................................................................................... 5512.1 Introduction........................................................................................................................................................................5512.2 UseofaGeographicInformationSystem(GIS)..........................................................................................................5512.3 PopulationGrowth............................................................................................................................................................5512.4 WaterSupplyandDemand.............................................................................................................................................5512.5 LivestockNumbers...........................................................................................................................................................5512.6 LandUse..............................................................................................................................................................................5612.7 HabitatCondition..............................................................................................................................................................5612.8 SocialConditions...............................................................................................................................................................5612.9 EconomicConditions........................................................................................................................................................56

CHAPTER 13: THE ACTION PLAN ............................................................................................................................................. 5713.1 Introduction.......................................................................................................................................................................5713.2 BriefDescriptionofActionsRequired.........................................................................................................................58

CHAPTER 14 REVISION TO NATIONAL POLICIES ............................................................................................................... 6214.1 Introduction.......................................................................................................................................................................6214.2 WaterResources...............................................................................................................................................................6214.3 Irrigation.............................................................................................................................................................................6214.4 TransportandCommunications....................................................................................................................................62

PART TWO - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: SCENARIOS FOR DEVELOPMENTIN THE TANA DELTA TO 2050CHAPTER 15: SCENARIO – BUILDING .................................................................................................................................... 6415.1 Introduction........................................................................................................................................................................64 METHODOLOGY .............................................................................................................................................................. 6415.2 ThePlanningFramework.................................................................................................................................................6415.3 Re-definitionoftheThreeScenarios............................................................................................................................64

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15.4 MethodologyforConstructingScenarios..................................................................................................................65

CHAPTER 16: EXISTING SITUATION (CONDITIONS IN 2010) ........................................................................................ 7316.1 Introduction.......................................................................................................................................................................7316.2 Population..........................................................................................................................................................................7316.3 EconomicActivity.............................................................................................................................................................7316.4 Livestock.............................................................................................................................................................................7316.5 Farming................................................................................................................................................................................7616.6 Fishing ................................................................................................................................................................................7816.7 BeeKeeping.......................................................................................................................................................................7916.8 NaturalResources.............................................................................................................................................................8016.9 Tourism................................................................................................................................................................................8816.10 Trade....................................................................................................................................................................................8916.11 MiningandIndustry.........................................................................................................................................................9116.12 Infrastructure.....................................................................................................................................................................9116.13 Administration,ProfessionalServices,EducationandHealth................................................................................9116.13 WaterResources...............................................................................................................................................................9216.14 Biodiversity.........................................................................................................................................................................9316.15 Summary.............................................................................................................................................................................94

CHAPTER 17: SCENARIO A - TRADITIONAL LIVELIHOODS .......................................................................................... 9717.1 Definition...........................................................................................................................................................................9717.2 Population.........................................................................................................................................................................9717.3 EconomicActivity............................................................................................................................................................9717.4 Livestock............................................................................................................................................................................9717.5 Farming............................................................................................................................................................................10117.6 Fishing.............................................................................................................................................................................10417.7 BeeKeeping....................................................................................................................................................................10417.8 NaturalResources.........................................................................................................................................................10617.9 Tourism............................................................................................................................................................................10717.10 Trade,CommerceandFinancialServices.................................................................................................................10717.11 MiningandIndustry......................................................................................................................................................10917.12 Infrastructure.................................................................................................................................................................10917.13 AdministrationandProfessionalServices................................................................................................................11017.14 UrbanAreas....................................................................................................................................................................11017.15 WaterResources............................................................................................................................................................11017.16 NatureConservationandBiodiversity..................................................................................................................... 11117.17 Summary...........................................................................................................................................................................112

CHAPTER 18: SCENARIO B – COMMERCIAL DEVELOPMENT ..................................................................................... 11518.1 Introduction.....................................................................................................................................................................11518.2 Population........................................................................................................................................................................11518.3 EconomicActivity...........................................................................................................................................................11518.4 Livestock..........................................................................................................................................................................11818.5 Agriculture.......................................................................................................................................................................12018.6 Fishing...............................................................................................................................................................................12618.7 BeeKeeping.....................................................................................................................................................................12718.8 UsingNaturalResources...............................................................................................................................................12818.9 Tourism..............................................................................................................................................................................13018.10 Trade,CommerceandFinancialServices..................................................................................................................13118.11 MiningandIndustry.......................................................................................................................................................13118.12 Infrastructure..................................................................................................................................................................13618.13 Administration,ProfessionalServices,EducationandHealth..............................................................................13718.14 UrbanAreas.....................................................................................................................................................................13718.15 WaterResources.............................................................................................................................................................138

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18.16 Biodiversity......................................................................................................................................................................14018.17 Summary..........................................................................................................................................................................141

CHAPTER 19: SCENARIO C – HYBRID APPROACH ........................................................................................................... 14319.1 Introduction......................................................................................................................................................................14319.2 Population........................................................................................................................................................................14319.3 EconomicActivityandMethodology.........................................................................................................................14319.4 LivestockManagement.................................................................................................................................................14819.5 Agriculture........................................................................................................................................................................15219.6 FishingandFishFarming...............................................................................................................................................15619.7 BeeKeeping.....................................................................................................................................................................15819.8 NaturalResources...........................................................................................................................................................15819.9 Tourism..............................................................................................................................................................................16019.10 Trade,CommerceandFinancialServices...................................................................................................................16019.11 MiningandQuarrying....................................................................................................................................................16119.12 Infrastructure...................................................................................................................................................................16519.13 Transport...........................................................................................................................................................................16519.14 Administration,ProfessionalServices,EducatoinandHealth..............................................................................16619.15 UrbanAreas......................................................................................................................................................................16619.16 WaterResources.............................................................................................................................................................16719.17 NatureConservation......................................................................................................................................................16819.18 Summary...........................................................................................................................................................................170

APPENDIX 1: REVIEW OF NATIONAL POLICIES AND INTERNATIONAL CONVENTIONS ................................... 173

REFERENCES ................................................................................................................................................................................. 181

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TANA RIVER DELTA LAND USE PLAN x

Table6.1 LandUseClassesfoundwithinTopographicAreas.......................................................................................26Table13.1 ActionPlan..............................................................................................................................................................57Table15.1 ComparisonofAreasOccupiedbyVegetation,LandCoverandLandUseClasses...............................68Table15.2 ContributionstoGrossDomesticProductin2011(NationalAccounts)..................................................70Table15.3 ElementsoftheEconomyEstimatedfromAvailableLocalData................................................................71Table15.4 TheCompletedModeloftheLocalEconomyforScenarioAin2050......................................................71Table16.1 NumberofAnimalsperHousehold(2010)......................................................................................................73Table16.2 SourcesofInformationonCattleNumbersintheDelta..............................................................................74Table16.3 RecalculationofFarmingAreasintheTanaDelta..........................................................................................76Table16.4 IrrigationSchemes.................................................................................................................................................77Table16.5 SummaryofFarmingInformationin2010.......................................................................................................78Table16.6 EstimateofCropValuesin2010-2011............................................................................................................78Table16.7 FishTypesandProduction..................................................................................................................................79Table16.8 BeekeepingforHoneyProductioninTanaDeltaDistrict(2006-2008)...................................................79Table16.11 ConstructionofOrmaHouses............................................................................................................................83Table16.12 MaterialsandValue(KSh)forPokomoNewBuildHousingConstruction................................................84Table16.13 MaterialsandValue(KSh)forOrmaNewBuildHousingConstruction....................................................84Table16.14 LabourandTimeRequiredinHouse-building.................................................................................................85Table16.15 NationalEstimatesforCharcoalProductioninKenya..................................................................................85Table16.16 EstimatesforCharcoalProductionperHeadinKenya.................................................................................85Table16.17 ProductionandValueofCharcoalperHouseholdinEastandSEAfrica..................................................86Table16.18 EstimatesforCharcoalProductionintheTanaDelta....................................................................................86Table16.19 CharcoalandFirewoodProductionin2010...................................................................................................88Table16.20 NotionalLevelsofVisitorActivityintheTanaDelta,2013.........................................................................88Table16.21 TypeandNumberofBusinesses........................................................................................................................89Table16.22 EstimatedvaluesforAverageIncomeinTanaDelta......................................................................................90Table16.23 TheEconomicActivitiesofTanaRiverDeltaCommunities.........................................................................91Table16.24 WildlifePopulationintheDelta.........................................................................................................................93Table16.25 PrimaryHabitatsMakinguptheCoreoftheTanaDelta..............................................................................94Table16.26 BaselineSummary.................................................................................................................................................96Table17.1 PopulationLevelsin2010Projectedto2030and2050..............................................................................98Table17.2 NumbersofLivestockandEquivalentTULin2010,Projectedto2030and2050................................98Table17.3 WaterConsumptionperday(Alllivestock).....................................................................................................98Table17.4 IndicativeValueofResidentCattleintheDelta.............................................................................................98Table17.5 LivestockRearingonallRanches.......................................................................................................................99Table17.6 LivestockRearingonRancheswithintheDelta.............................................................................................99Table17.7 PotentialLivestockrearingonallRanchesin2030and2050..................................................................100Table17.8 PotentialLivestockRearingonRancheswithintheDeltain2030and2050.......................................100Table17.9 WaterConsumptionbyLivestockonRanches.............................................................................................100Table17.10 ValueofCattlePotentiallyCarriedonallRanches......................................................................................101Table17.11 LandAreasandEmploymentinSubsistenceFarmingin2010,Extrapolatedto2030and2050......101Table17.12 AreasunderSmallScaleIrrigationin2010,Extrapolatedto2030and2050.......................................102Table17.13 CommercialFarmingPracticein2010,Extrapolatedto2030and2050...............................................103Table17.14 WaterDemandforIrrigatedCrops.................................................................................................................103Table17.15 Employment/LivelihoodinAgriculture..........................................................................................................103Table17.16 GrossValueofAgriculturalProduce(KShMillion).......................................................................................103Table17.17 FreshwaterandMarineFisheriesin2010,Extrapolatedto2030and2050.........................................103Table17.18 EmploymentinFreshwaterandMarineFisheries.......................................................................................105Table17.19 ProjectionsofHoneyProductionfrom2010to2030and2050.............................................................105Table17.20 EmploymentandLivelihoodsinNaturalResourceHarvesting.................................................................105Table17.21 IncomefromNonTimberForestProductsandWetlandsin2010,2030and2050...........................105Table17.22 AnnualConsumptionofAllNaturalBuildingMaterialsin2010,2030and2050................................106Table17.23 CharcoalandFirewoodProductionin2010,2030and2050..................................................................107Table17.24 LevelsofTourismActivitywithTurnoverinUS$in2010,2030and2050............................................108

LIST OF TABLES


Table17.25 TradingandMarketingintheDeltain2010,2030and2050....................................................................105Table17.26 TheEconomicActivitiesofTanaRiverDeltaCommunities.......................................................................109Table17.27 DomesticWaterConsumption......................................................................................................................... 110Table17.28 LivestockWaterConsumption......................................................................................................................... 111Table17.29 WaterdemandsforFarmingandIrrigation.................................................................................................... 111Table17.30 DailyDemandforWaterin2010,2030and2050...................................................................................... 112Table17.31 EffectofAbstractiononTanaRiverflows...................................................................................................... 112Table17.32 PredictionofTropicalLivestockUnitsin2030and2050,andEquivalentAreasat..............................113 DifferentStockingDensitiesTable17.33 SummaryofScenarioA...................................................................................................................................... 114Table18.1 InternationalStandardIndustrialClassification–MainSections.............................................................. 116Table18.2 PotentialDevelopmentwithintheTanaDeltaupto2050.........................................................................117Table18.3 DevelopmentofCommercialCattleRanchingon25,000Hectares.........................................................119Table18.4 AssumptionsRelatingtotheWithdrawlofGrazingLand..........................................................................119Table18.5 MainClassesofCropssuitableforgrowingintheTanaDelta.................................................................. 120Table18.6 CalculationofWaterDemandforCommercialCropsunderScenarioBin2030..................................121Table18.7 CalculationofWaterDemandforCommercialCropsunderScenarioBin2030..................................121Table18.8 IndicativeProductionandValueofIntensivelyGrownVegetableCropsperHectare..........................123Table18.9 IndicativeProductionandValueforExtensivelyGrownCropsperHectare.......................................... 123Table18.10 IndicativeProductionandValueforFruitCropsperHectare.................................................................... 123Table18.11 ComparativeOutputsofSugarbasedon65tonnes/haand100tonnes/haSugarcane.....................123Table18.12 PotentialCommercialAgriculturalEnterprisesintheDeltaincludinginScenarioB............................125Table18.13 LandAreasandEmploymentinSubsistenceFarmingin2010,Extrapolatedto2030and2050......126Table18.14 FreshwaterandMarineFisheriesin2010,Extrapolatedto2030and2050..........................................127Table18.15 FishFarmDevelopmentintheDeltato2030and2050.............................................................................128Table18.16 ProjectionsofHoneyProductionfrom2010to2030and2050..............................................................128Table18.17 UseofNaturalResourcesforBuildingConstructionin2010and2030..................................................129Table18.18 DetailsofCharcoalandFirewoodProductionunderScenarioB..............................................................129Table18.19 AlternativestoNaturalResourceUseinthePeriod2030-2050...............................................................130Table18.20 PotentialOilandGasDevelopmentintheTanaDelta.................................................................................132Table18.21 IndicativeHeavyMineralsSandsMiningOperation.....................................................................................132Table18.22 DevelopmentofIndustrialSites........................................................................................................................134Table18.23 WaterDemandperdaybyFactory...................................................................................................................135Table18.24 IndicativeCostsforConstructionandRepairofRoadsintheDelta(2010Prices)...............................136Table18.25 GrowthofUrbanandRuralSettlements.........................................................................................................138Table18.26 DomesticWaterConsumption..........................................................................................................................138Table18.27 LivestockWaterConsumption..........................................................................................................................139Table18.28 WaterDemandsforFarmingandIrrigation(Millionm3)..............................................................................139Table18.29 DailyDemandsforWaterin2010,2030and2050(inm3).........................................................................139Table18.30 EffectofAbstractiononTanaRiverFlows......................................................................................................139Table18.31 SummaryofScenarioB.......................................................................................................................................142Table19.1 SimplifiedVegetationandLandCoverintheTanaDeltaPlanArea..........................................................143Table19.2 HabitatstobeManagedforNatureProtectionandBiodiversity..............................................................147Table19.3 ProposedBreakdownofLandUses..................................................................................................................148Table19.4 GrazingofLivestockbyIndividualPastoralists..............................................................................................150Table19.5 SpecialLivestockGrazingProject.....................................................................................................................151Table19.6 WaterDemandbyallLivestock.........................................................................................................................151Table19.7 EmploymentinLivestockRearing.....................................................................................................................151Table19.8 ConversionofLandtoFarmland2010-2050.................................................................................................152Table19.9 BreakdownofTypesofAgriculturalPracticeandCropping.......................................................................154Table19.10 GrowthinWaterDemandinAgriculture(2010-2030)................................................................................154Table19.11 GrowthinWaterDemandinAgricultureto2050.........................................................................................154Table19.12 EmploymentandLivelihoodsinAgriculture...................................................................................................154

LIST OF TABLES

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Figure2.1 UrbanCenters,DrainageandTransportSystemofTanaDelta.........................................................................3Figure2.2 MajorRoadsandTownsintheKenyanCoastalArea..........................................................................................4Figure2.3 GeneralPlanningIssuesintheTanaRiverDelta..................................................................................................5Figure3.1 TanaRiverDeltaLandUsePlanCounties..............................................................................................................8Figure4.1 ConsistencyAnalysis................................................................................................................................................12Figure6.1 MapShowingtheTanaDeltaPlanArea...............................................................................................................15Figure6.2 MapShowingtheExtentoftheTanaDeltaPlanBufferZone........................................................................16Figure6.3 TheUpperandLowerDelta....................................................................................................................................17Figure6.4 TopographicZones,RiverCorridors,Floodplain,TerracesandCoastalPlain..............................................18Figure6.5 PlanningIssueswithintheUpperandLowerFloodplain.................................................................................20Figure6.6 PlanningIssueswithintheTerraces......................................................................................................................22Figure6.7 ImportantHabitats....................................................................................................................................................24Figure6.8 Settlements.................................................................................................................................................................25Figure6.9 DistributionofLandClasses...................................................................................................................................27Figure7.1 SketchlayoutofScenarioA....................................................................................................................................29Figure7.2 PlanshowingIndicativeLandUsesunderScenarioB......................................................................................30Figure7.3 PlanShowingtheMainFocusofActivitiesunderScenerioC........................................................................32Figure8.1 LandUseProposalsintheTerraces.......................................................................................................................38Figure8.2 PlanningStatementsintheUpperandLowerDelta.........................................................................................39Figure8.3 IllustrationofTypicalRuralDevelopmentPlan..................................................................................................42Figure15.1 DistributionofVegetationandLandCoverintheDelta(2010).....................................................................65Figure15.2 “LandUseClasses”....................................................................................................................................................66Figure15.3 LandUsesandMainEconomicActivities............................................................................................................68Figure16.1 PercentageContributionstoHouseholdIncomeintheTanaRiverDistrict,2011....................................90Figure16.2 PrincipalMigratoryRoutes......................................................................................................................................95Figure19.1 SimplifiedVegetation/LandCoverZoneswiththePlanArea.......................................................................144Figure19.2 DetailedVegetation,LandCoverandLandUsewithinthePlanArea(AreaKm2) ................................... 144Figure19.3 DifferentLandUseClassesShowninProportionalBarGraph(AreainKm2) ........................................... 145Figure19.4 ImportanceofLand,WaterandEnvironmentalQualitytoSpecificLandUses........................................146Figure19.5 PropotionalBreakdownofDifferentLandUseswiththeDelta..................................................................149

LIST OF TABLES

LIST OF FIGURES

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Table19.13 OverallperformanceofNewAgriculturalEnterprisesin2030and2050...............................................155Table19.14 ValueofFoodProductionthroughSubsistenceFarming............................................................................156Table19.15 SummaryofNewAgriculturalEnterprises......................................................................................................156Table19.16 EmploymentinFreshwaterandMarineFisheries.........................................................................................157Table19.17 FreshwaterandMarineCaptureFisheriesextrapolatedto2030and2050...........................................157Table19.18 FishFarmDevelopmentintheDeltato2030and2050.............................................................................157Table19.19 ProjectionsofHoneyProductionfrom2010to2030and2050..............................................................158Table19.20 UseofNaturalResourcesforbuildingconstructionin2010and2030...................................................159Table19.21 AlternativestoNaturalResourceUseintheperiod2030-2050...............................................................160Table19.22 ContributionstotheLocalEconomyoftheDeltaunderScenarioCfromTradeand...........................161 FinanceinKShMillionsTable19.23 PotentialOilandGasDevelopmentintheTanaDelta.................................................................................162Table19.24 TypicalHeavyMineralSandsMiningOperation............................................................................................163Table19.25 DevelopmentofIndustrialEstates....................................................................................................................164Table19.26 IndicativeCostsforConstructionandRepairofRoadsintheDelta(2010Prices)...............................165Table19.27 GrowthofUrbanandRuralSettlements.........................................................................................................166Table19.28 DomesticWaterConsumption..........................................................................................................................167Table19.29 LivestockWaterConsumption..........................................................................................................................168Table19.30 WaterdemandsforFarmingandIrrigation.....................................................................................................168Table19.31 DailyDemandforWaterin2010,2030and2050.......................................................................................168Table19.32 SummaryofScenarioC.......................................................................................................................................177


AECF AfricaEnterpriseChallengeFundAEWA Africa-EurasianWaterBirdagreementASAL AridandSemi-AridLandsCDA CoastDevelopmentAuthorityCFA CommunityForestryAssociationCITES TheConventiononInternationalTrade in Endangered SpeciesCLB CommunityLandBoardCMS CatchmentManagementStrategyCPDC CountyPlanningDevelopment CommitteeDAO DistrictAgricultureOfficeDLD DistrictLandBoardDRSRS DepartmentforResourceSurveysand RemoteSensingEBA EcosystemBasedManagementEIA Environmental Impact StatementFAO FoodandAgricultureOrganizationFTE FulltimeemploymentequivalentGIS GeographicInformationSystemGPS GlobalPositioningbySatelliteHGFD HighGrandFallsDamIBA ImportantBirdAreaICZM IntegratedCoastalZoneManagementIGAD Inter-GovernmentalAuthorityon DevelopmentIMF InternationalMonetaryFundIMTC Inter-ministerialTechnicalCommittee on the Sustainable Management of DeltasinKenyaISIC InternationalStandardIndustrial ClassificationIUCN InternationalUnionforConservationof NatureKBA KeyBiodiversityAreaKEFRI KenyaForestryResearchInstituteKengen KenyaElectricityGeneratingCompanyKWS KenyaWildlifeServiceLAPSSET LamuPortSouthSudan Ethiopia Transport Corridor

LTDCT LowerTanaDeltaConservationTrustLUP LandUsePlanMCA MemberofCountyAssemblyMDG Millennium Development GoalMEA MultilateralEnvironmentalAgreementNCCAP NationalClimateChangeActionPlanNCCRS NationalClimateChangeResponse StrategyNEMA NationalEnvironmentalManagement AgencyNMK NationalMuseumsofKenyaMP MemberofParliamentNLC NationalLandCommissionNTFP NonTimberForestProductNRT NorthernRangelandTrustPGF PlanningGreenfuturesPPP Public-PrivatePartnershipTARDA TanaandAthiRiversDevelopment AuthorityTLU TropicalLivestockUnitTPAC TanaPlanningAdvisoryCommittee Ramsar InternationalWetland designatedundertheConvention signedinRamsarREDD UnitedNationsCollaborative ProgrammeonReducingEmissions fromDeforestationandForest DegradationinDevelopingCountriesRSPB TheRoyalSocietyforProtectionof BirdsSEA Strategic Environmental AssessmentUNFCCC TheUnitedNationsFramework ConventiononClimateChangeWIO Western Indian OceanWRMA WaterResourcesManagement AuthorityWRUA WaterResourceUsersAssociationVision 2030 KenyaEconomicDevelopmentPlan

LIST OF ACRONYMS

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Land use planning is a criticaland integral

part of sustainable development.

In the past, lack ofproper land use plans or poorly designedand developed plans have led to serious conflicts. The CountyGovernment of Lamuis proud to be part of theTanaDeltalandUsePlanning Process thathas culminated to this LandUsePlan

Although only a small section of the Tana Delta lieswithinLamuCounty,thatportionisvital,asitaffectslifebothwithin and beyond theDelta. Proper planning andmanagement of the Delta is therefore critical for theCounty Government of Lamu. The Tana Delta provideslifesupporttothefarmers,fisherfolkandpastoralistswhoresidewithinit.TheDeltaisalsoimportantforrechargingtheaquifersthatliebeyondtheDelta’sboundary.

Intherecentpast,conflictshavebeenincreasingintheTanaRiverDelta.Theseconflictshaveledtoageneralsenseofinsecurityandalackoftrustamongthelocalinhabitants,a factor that constrains service delivery by the CountyGovernment and others. These challengesmay escalatewith the major infrastructural developments expectedin Lamu such as the Lamu Port South Sudan EthiopiaTransportCorridor(LAPSSET)projectsandespeciallythedevelopmentoftheopenportwhichisexpectedtoattractamuch largerpopulationaspeoplewillmove in to takeadvantageofthevarioustradeandbusinessopportunitiesthatwill comewith these investments. Suchanticipatedpopulation growth alone warrants the development ofproper land use plans.

I am confident that effective implementation of theproposalsmadeinthislanduseplanwillhelpusasaCountyGovernment to address some of the challenges that have beendifficulttodealwithinthepast,especiallyowingtoa lackof factual informationnowpresented inboth theLandUsePlanandtheTanaDeltaStrategicEnvironmentalAssessment.

A better futurefor the people of Tana River

Countywillbeusheredin by this Land UsePlan.

TheTanaRiverDelta,avast seasonalwetlandat the southern tip of Tana RiverCounty, is importantlocally, nationallyand internationally.It absorbs the floodwatersofeasternKenya, protects theshore from erosion, sequesterscarbondioxideandsupportslocalcommunitiesand diversewildlife. The Delta is a source of livelihoodforpastoralistsbyprovidingdryseasongrazingareas;forfarmerswhorelyonitssoilandwaterfortheiragriculturalactivities;andforfisherfolkandothercommunitiesthatderivetheirlivelihoodsfromtheDelta.ThustheTanaRiverDelta has been a blessing to the local inhabitants.

However,eventsof thepast fewyearshaveshownthatthisDelta, thathasbeena lifeline for localcommunitiesfor centuries, is under great threat.The recent conflictsbetween pastoralists and farmers was attributed, afteran in-depth inquiry by a commission of inquiry set upby theGovernmentofKenya, inpart tocompetition forthe natural resources within the Delta. These resourceuseconflictsaredrivenbyan increasingpopulation,notjustfromhighbirthratesbutalsofromthehighinfluxofpeoplefromotherareasseekinglandandanewlife.SincetheTanaDeltapopulationisexpectedtocontinueonanupward trend while the resources remain unchanged,theseconflictswouldbeexpectedtoescalate,especiallywhennodecisivestepsaretakentoreversethetrends.

This Land Use Plan, therefore, comes at an opportunetime, when the Tana River County Government triesto restore order, promote harmony among the variouscommunities that reside in theDelta andensurequalityservice delivery. The land use planwill be used by theCounty Government to regulate the use of the Delta’sresources;tomakesuretheseresourcesareusedwiselytosupportthesustainabilityofthevariouslivelihoodoptionspursuedbythecommunities;topromotesecurity,equity

xiv

H.E Hussein DadoGovernor, Tana River County

MESSAGES FROM TANA RIVER COUNTY GOVERNOR

MESSAGE FROM LAMU COUNTY GOVERNOR

H.E Issa A. Timamy Governor, Lamu County

TANA RIVER DELTA LAND USE PLANxv

and effective service delivery; and to ensure thatbiodiversity remainspartof theheritageof the localpeople.TanaDeltahasdelicatefloraandfaunathatisunique to the area.

As the Governor of Tana River County, I take thisopportunity again to thank the various actors whohaveworkedtirelesslytomaketheprocessasuccess.The Tana River County Government has beencommitted throughout this process and will remainso during the implementation of this plan.We shallendeavour to integrate the proposals made here in our County’s Integrated Development Plan (CIDP).Weshallalsoensurethatwherepossible,governancestructures are put in placewith the participation ofthe local communities to ensure its implementation,especially where issues of access, use and benefitsharingareconcerned.Weshallalsopartnerwithallstakeholders,bothgovernmentandnon-governmentalorganizations,duringtheimplementationofthislanduseplanwithaviewtoeffectivelyservethepeopleofTanaRiverCounty.

Lastly,theTanaRiverCountyGovernmentwillseethatthislanduseplanandtherecommendationsmadebyits attendant Strategic Environmental Assessmentare used by present and future planners, educators,environmentalists, developers, decision makers andother interestedparties inallmatters relating to theaccessanduseoftheTanaRiverDelta,withthegoalofactualizingthe inter-linkagesbetweenenvironmentalsustainability,humanlivelihoodsanddevelopment.

H.E. Amb. Hussein DadoGovernor, Tana River County

Information contained in the land use planwill guide theCounty Government in policy formulation and decisionmaking,especiallywithregardtofuturedevelopment;guidefuturelandallocationstodifferentusers;andprovideafirststeptowardsrestoringpeace,harmonyandtrustamongthelocalcommunities.Alltheseareaprerequisiteforeffectivedevelopment. The effective implementation of this landuse plan will enable the County Government and localcommunitiestorealizesustainabledevelopment.

H.E. Issa Timamy Governor, Lamu County


TheTanaRiverDeltaStrategicEnvironmentalAssessment(SEA)waspreparedtosupportthelanduseplanningprocessfortheArea.TheSEAisaresultofextensiveconsultationatcommunity,countyandnationallevelwiththeinputofinternationalSEAexperts.

ThecoreareaoftheTanaRiverDeltacompriseslandwithinTanaRiverandLamuCounties.TheTanaRiverDeltaisavastpatchworkofpalmsavanna,seasonallyfloodedgrassland,forestfragments,lakes,marinewetlandsandtheriveritself.ThiscombinationofhabitatsmakestheTanaDeltaabiodiversityhotspot.ItisdesignatedasaRamsarsite–awetlandofinternationalimportance–andanImportantBirdandBiodiversityArea.

TheDeltaissparselypopulatedandinhabitedbythreemajorcommunitiescomprisingPokomofarmers,OrmapastoralistsandWardeipastoralists.OtherethnicgroupsincludetheBajuni,Luo,Luhya,Boni,Wataa/Sanye,MalakoteandMunyoyaya,amongothers.LargeandsmallscaleirrigationfarmingtakesplaceintheTanaDelta.LargeherdsofcattlegrazeintheDeltaduringthedryseason.Inaddition,anumberofprojectswithinKenya’sVision2030areplannedwithintheDeltaanditscatchment.

Overthepastdecade,conflictshavebeenincreasingintheTanaRiverDeltaasaresultofincreasingpopulation,competitionforland,land-basedresourcesandaccesstowater,andencroachmentintofragileecosystems.Theseconflictsarecompoundedbylackofageneralframeworktoguidedecision-makingondevelopmentoftheDelta.Thishascompromisednaturalresourceconservationeffortsandcommunityinterests.ThechallengesfacingtheDeltarequireacoordinatedapproachtoplanningandmanagementoftheresourcesintheDelta.Onlylanduseplanningcanprovidethatopportunity,assectoralplanningtendstobesingle-resourcefocused.

PreparationofaLandUsePlanforTanaRiverDeltatoguidepolicyformulationanddecision-makingonfuturedevelopmentoftheDeltastartedinSeptember2011throughtheMinistryofLandsandwithinvolvementofotheragencies.ItispartofaprogrammetocoordinatethesustainablemanagementofDeltasinKenya,initiatedinJuly2011bytheOfficeofthePrimeMinisterwithanInter-MinisterialTechnicalCommitteecomposedof18ministries.ThisSEAwasconductedconcurrentlywiththeTanaRiverDeltalanduseplanningprocess.TheSEAinparticularseekstostrengthentheintegrationofsocio-economicandecologicalaspectsintheTanaDeltaLandUsePlan.These include:i. Describingtheexternalandin-situfactorsinfluencinglanduseintheTanaRiverDelta;ii. Ensuringintegrationofstakeholders’socio-economicandenvironmentalperspectivesintotheproposedLUP;iii. EstablishingtheimplicationsoftheproposedLUPonTanaRiverDeltasustainablemanagementanddevelopment;iv. Identifyingandmappingoutspecifichabitats,naturalresourcesorlandusezonesthatshouldbepreservedinperpetuitytoensurethesurvivaloftheTanaRiverDeltaecosystem;v. Assessingalternativelanduseoptionsthatcaninformthepreferredstrategyandplan.

InparticulartheanalyseswithinthisSEAwereinstrumentalfortheinterrogationofdevelopmentoflanduseoptionsintheTanaDeltaandthedevelopmentofthepreferredlandusestrategythatstrikesthebestbalancebetweendevelopmentandconservation.

TheTanaRiverDeltaSEAisbasedontheOrganisationforEconomicCooperationandDevelopmentAssistanceCommittee(OECD-DAC)SEAframeworkonwhichKenya’sSEAGuidelinesarelargelybased,andtheWorldBankapproachtoInstitutionalSEAinwhichattentionisgiventoinstitutionalstrengthsandweaknessesandthecapacityofinstitutionstoimplementdecisions.

FOREWORD

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TheTanaRiverDeltaLandUsePlan(LUP)wasformulatedbytheInter-ministerialTechnicalCommittee(IMTC)ontheSustainableManagementofDeltasinKenya.ThetechnicalproductionoftheTanaDeltaLUPwasundertakenbytheLUPTeam,coordinatedbyPeterOdhengoinitiallyfromtheOfficeofthePrimeMinisterandlaterfromtheNationalTreasury.TheLUP teamcomprised representatives fromvariouspublic andprivateorganizations:PeterOdhengo (NationalTreasury),PaulMatiku (NatureKenya),PatrickWaweru (MinistryofLand,HousingandUrbanDevelopment), Dan Guda (Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries ), Sammy Kathike (Ministry of Land,HousingandUrbanDevelopment),TomKinara(MinistryofAgriculture,LivestockandFisheries),EugeneMmyamwezi(MinistryofEnvironment,WaterandNaturalResources),SerahMunguti(NatureKenya),GeorgeKoyier(MinistryofEnvironment,WaterandNaturalResources)andDickensOdeny(NationalMuseumsofKenya).TheLUPteamwasresponsible for compiling this report.

TheTanaPlanningAdvisoryCommittee(TPAC),composedofrepresentativesofkeystakeholdersatthecommunityandcountylevel,wasinstrumentalinprovidinginformationforthisreportaswellasincreatingawarenessamongthecommunitiesbyorganizingandparticipatinginvillageconsultations.

PeterNelsonofPlanningGreenFutures(PGF)providedinternationalexpertisethroughouttheprocess.HelenByronofRoyalSocietyforProtectionofBirds(RSPB)inUnitedKingdomprovidedtechnicalandsupervisorysupporttotheInternationalExpertandreviewedtheLUP.SarahSandersofRSPBprovidedoverallcoordinationandlinkwiththeUKaidwhoprovidedinvaluablefinancialsupport.Toallthesewewouldliketoexpressourdeepappreciation.

WearehighlyindebtedandgratefultoNatureKenyaformobilizingfundingfromUKaid,theRoyalSocietyfortheProtectionofBirds,USFishandWildlifeService,EcosystemAlliance(IUCNNetherlands,WetlandsInternationalandBothENDS)andtheWorldBanktosupportthisactivity,providinglogisticalsupport,andavailingpersonnelatthelocallevelduringcommunityconsultations.

SincerethanksgototheGovernmentsoftheTanaRiverandLamuCounties,theNationalGovernmentofKenyathroughMinistries,AgenciesandnongovernmentinstitutionswhichprovidedtechnicalstafftotheIMTC:MinistryofEnvironment,WaterandNaturalResources;MinistryofAgriculture,LivestockandFisheries;MinistryofInformation,Communication and Technology; Ministry of Planning and Devolution; Ministry of Land, Housing and UrbanDevelopment;TheNationalTreasury;MinistryofInteriorandCoordinationofNationalGovernment;GovernmentAgencies: Kenya Forest Service, National EnvironmentManagementAuthority, Kenya Institute for Public PolicyResearchandAnalysis;NationalMuseumsofKenya,TanaandAthiRiversDevelopmentAuthority,ImarishaNaivashaBoard;andCivilSociety:NatureKenya-TheEastAfricaNaturalHistorySociety;theRoyalSocietyfortheProtectionofBirdsandtheWorldWideFundforNature.

PeterO.OdhengoDeltasSecretariatTeamLeader

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

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Kenya’sTanaRiverDeltaisavastseasonalwetlandcomplex.Itsimportancelocally,nationallyandinternationallyiswelldocumented.TheDeltaisahomeandsourceoflivelihoodstopastoralists,farmersandfishermen,andadryseasongrazingareaforpastoralistsfromwithinandoutsidetheDelta.Largeandsmallscaleirrigationfarmingtakesplace intheTanaDeltaandtheRiverTanacatchment.ExtensivescientificresearchonthefloraandfaunaintheTanaDeltahasbeendonebylocalandforeignresearchers.TheDeltaisrichinfloraandfaunaandisdesignatedasaRamsarsite–awetlandofinternationalimportance–andanImportantBirdandBiodiversityArea.

TheTanaRiverDeltaLandUsePlancomesatanopportunetime,whendevolvedgovernmentisinplacetotacklelocalchallenges.TheLandUsePlanaddresses issuesthat inthepasthave ledtoresourceuseconflictsbetweenfarmersandpastoralistsintheDelta,mostrecentlyin2012-13.TheCommissionofEnquiryonTanaRiverclasheswasconstitutedinSeptember2012andamongitsfindingswasthatconflictoverwaterandlandresourceswaspartlyresponsible for the violence.

GiventhesocialandeconomicsensitivitiesintheTanaRiverDeltathisLandUsePlanhasbeensubjectedtoaStrategicEnvironmentalAssessment(SEA).ItisthefirsttimeinKenyaandinAfricathataLandUsePlanisinformedbyaSEA,withthetwoprocessesrunningconcurrently.Thegrowinghumanpopulationandcompetitionfordiminishingnaturalresources,compoundedbytheeffectsofclimatechange,havenecessitatedadrasticchangeinthewaywedothings.

TheTanaRiverDeltaLandUsePlanisacollaborativeeffortofvariousstakeholdersatnational,localandinternationallevels.Itisthemostcomprehensivemilestonesofarinthepreparationofpolicythatwillcontributetosustainabledevelopment of theDelta.The LandUsePlan is informedby in-depth analyses of existing social economic andenvironmentalconditionsintheDelta,andreviewsthepoliciesandinitiativesthatbearontheDeltaandtheRiverTanacatchment. Its recommendationsarebasedonscenariobuilding informedbyextensiveanalyses. It includesmaps,diagrams,graphicsandtablesonsocial,environmental,economicconditionsandpoliticalsetup.

This LandUsePlan promotes regulated access,wise use and improved rangelandmanagement thatwill lead toimprovedsustainablelivelihoods,security,equityandbiodiversityconservation.Agriculturalintensificationwilltakeinto account IntegratedMultiple Land Use Plan, Strategic EnvironmentAssessment (SEA), indigenous food andlivestocksystemsandenhanceagricultural,rangelandandpastoralsystemswithinaframeworkofincreasedvegetalcoverandfreshwaterqualityenhancingsustainedflowofecosystemservicesincludingbiodiversity.

ImplementationofthisLandUsePlanwillensurethatcurrentforestcover,waterquality,quantityandqualityofbiodiversityaremaintainedthroughasystemofgazettementasprovisionalforestsorcommunityconservationareasthataresupportedbyregulatoryframeworksandmanagementplansimplementedbygovernment,privatesectorandlocalpeoplecommittedtowiseuseoftheTanaDeltanaturalresourcesforposterity.

The Tana River Delta Land Use Plan is a framework to support government, private sector and small holderdevelopments that are guided by Strategic Environment Assessment (SEA), management plans and operationalstandardsandhavecapacitytoensurecontinuedwiseuseofTanaDelta’snaturalresourcesandflowofecosystemservices.

TheeffectiveimplementationofthisLandUsePlancallsforcapacitatedinstitutionstodrivepolicychangetoredressthebalanceofrights,responsibilitiesandbenefitsofsustainablelandmanagementandconservationmoreequitablybetweenthegovernment,communitiesandtheprivatesector.Thisenhancedinstitutionalcapacitywillleadto:1. CountygovernmentsthathavemainstreamedSustainableLandManagementintocountydevelopmentplans2. Countyandcommunitylevelgovernanceandregulatorystructuresthatguideaccess,useandbenefitsharingand

ensuretheuseandaccessisequitabletopresentandfuturegenerations.3. Localinstitutionsandprivatesectorthatunderstandandareabletoimplementsustainablelandmanagement

practicesandregulations.4. StrategicEnvironmentalAssessmentandLandUsePlanacceptedbyall stakeholdersas thebasis forguided

developmentinKenya.

TheTanaRiverDeltaLandUsePlanhingesontheConstitutionofKenya,2010,amongotherlaws.Italsoborrows

PREFACE

xviii


frominternationalbestpractice.Inthepast,mostoflanduseplanninginKenyawasundertakenfortownsandurbancenters.InthisrespectthisLandUsePlanisafirststepinagroundbreakingprocessinthatwillintroducesweepingchangesinthewaylandismanagedinKenya.

Preparationof theLandUsePlan forTanaRiverDelta toguidepolicy formulationanddecision-makingonfuturedevelopmentoftheDeltastartedinSeptember2011throughtheMinistryofLandsandwithinvolvementofotheragencies.ItispartofaprogrammetocoordinatethesustainablemanagementofdeltasinKenya,initiatedinJuly2011bytheOfficeofthePrimeMinisterwithanInter-MinisterialTechnicalCommitteecomposedof18ministries.TheLandUsePlanwillsignificantlyinfluencethewaylandisallocatedtovarioususersandinterestgroups.

TheTanaDeltaLandUsePlanfindsthatmanyoftheelementsofsustainablepathwaystodevelopmentexistorcanbereadilyrealized.Whatisneededisasystematicframework,aleadershipconsensusandpoliticalwill.PeaceinTanaDeltaisdependentonaholisticpolicyresponsetotheuseanddevelopmentofDeltalandresources.ThisLandUsePlanprovidesvitalinformationtoguideformulationofsuchpolicyresponse.

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TANA RIVER DELTA LAND USE PLAN xviii

PART ONECORE DOCUMENT

TANA RIVER DELTA LAND USE PLAN1

CHAPTER

1 THE ROLE OF THE TANA DELTA LAND USE PLAN

1.1 IntroductionTheTanaRiverDeltaLandUsePlan(LUP)constitutesanegotiatedandagreedpolicydocumenttoguidefuturedevelopment in the Tana Delta. The entire documentconfirmsthepoliciesandapproachoftheGovernmentsoftheTanaRiverandLamuCountiesandtheNationalGovernment. The LUP provides direction towards adesired future for the Delta, its people and resources, and seeks to facilitate consistent and predictable decisionmaking on future development issues. The plan aimsto guide public and private investments and contribute to reduced tensions and conflict over land andwaterresources. Itcanachievetheseobjectivesbecauseit isbasedonsoundscienceandextensiveconsultationwithlocal people.

The LUP provides a description of the key issuesfacingtheTanaRiverDeltaanddescribes itscharacterand national and international importance. It explainshow national policies help to determine the area’sfuture and identifies specific zoneswithinwhich localplans, policies or ‘statements of intent’will determineappropriate landuses.ThisLandUsePlansetsoutthecriteriabywhichfuturedevelopmentproposalswillbejudged and designates areas where development willbepermittedandotherareaswherethetypesandscaleofdevelopmentswillberestricted.Inadditiontheplanprovidesregulationstoguideresourcemanagementandto integrate other planning and management processes such as Environmental Impact Assessment procedures. Assuch,thisLandUsePlanistheoverarchingplanningdocumentfortheTanaRiverDelta.

1.2 Developing the Content of the Draft PlanTheDraftPlanhasbeenproducedinaccordancewithaLandUsePlanningFrameworkpublishedbytheMinistryofLandsandtheformerOfficeofthePrimeMinisterin2012.FulldetailsofthemethodologyandcontentoftheLUPFrameworkaresetoutinPart2ofthisdocument.

1.3 Status of the Tana Delta Draft Land Use PlanThis plan has been prepared using the combined resources of the National and District (now County)administrations. Because the plan covers parts oftwo counties it has the status of a Regional PhysicalDevelopment Plan (see Part IV, Physical PlanningAct,

Revised2012).ItalsosatisfiestherequirementsfortherelevantpartsofTanaCountyandLamuCountyintermsofthepreparationofCountySpatialPlans(undersection110oftheCountyGovernmentsAct,2012.

1.4 Consultation on the Draft PlanThisPlanispublishedinJune2015asabasisforfurtherreviewandimplementation,thedetailsofwhichwillbedeterminedbyjointworkinggroupsofthetwoCountygovernmentsandtheNationalGovernment.

1.5 SEA Preparation ProcessInitsfirstmeetingon19 July2011,usingitsconveningpowertheOfficeofthePrimeMinister(OPM)formedanInter-MinisterialTechnicalCommittee(IMTC)madeupoftwentytworelevantgovernmentministriesandagencies. This was followed by the formation of a core teamcomprising of 11members fromOPM, NEMA, KenyaWildlife Service (KWS), Kenya Forest Service (KFS),MinistryStateforPlanning,NationalDevelopmentandVision2030(MPND&V2030),MinistryofLands(MOL),Ministry of Agriculture (MOA), Ministry ofWater andIrrigation(MOW&I),NatureKenya(NK)andIMARISHANaivashaBoard.

From24th–26th July 2011, the core team of the IMTCdevelopedastrategicframeworktooverseeplanningfordeltasinKenyastartingwiththeTanaRiverDelta.TheoverallpurposeofthestrategyistoprovidearoadmapandgovernancestructuresthatwouldguidetheKenyanDeltas initiative to undertake General ManagementPlanning that use participatory approaches to identifyactions, define strategies, timelines andmilestones toachievesustainabledevelopmentframeworkforKenya’sdeltas .

1.5.1 Launch of the Tana Delta Planning ProcessIn September 2011, the IMTC convened a high level meeting in Malindi to inform local stakeholders anddiscusstheneedforastrategicplanfortheTanaRiverDelta. Sixty five (65) participants took part in themeeting.ThemeetingwashostedbyOPM,whileNEMAandNatureKenyaprovidedjointSecretariat.

RepresentativesfromkeyKenyangovernmentministriesand agencies attended togetherwith local communityrepresentatives,NGOs,mediaandinternationalexpertsinthefieldsoflanduseanddeltaplanningandSEA.Themeeting includedaworkshopandafieldvisit into the

TANA RIVER DELTA LAND USE PLAN 2

TanaRiverDelta toprovideanopportunity to interactand consult with the local people to understand theissuesfirsthand.

The meeting concluded by adopting a CommuniquéwhichconfirmedthelaunchoftheTanaDeltaplanninginitiative.Thisnotedthattheaimoftheinitiativeistoproducealong-termstrategiclanduseplanrepresentinga ‘truly sustainable’ future to the delta, informed byStrategic Environmental Assessment and that the process would take place over the next 18 months, with thesupportofDepartmentforInternationalDevelopment-UnitedKingdomAid(DFID-UKAid).

Inafollowupmeetingon27th September 2011 the IMTC agreedthatMinistriesofLands,Planning,EnvironmentandOPMshouldsecondofficerstothesecretariatinordertosupportaninternationalconsultantindevelopingtheSEAandLUPprocessfortheTanaDelta.AnofficerfromtheMinistryof Landswould lead a Landuseplanning(LUP)team,whileonefromMPND&V2030wouldleadtheSEAteam.Thetwoteamswouldcomprisetechnicalofficersworking on theTanaDelta LUP and SEA, andbe advised by an international consultant and theNetherlandsCommissionforEnvironmentalAssessment

OPM provided office space and furniture for thesecretariat,whileNatureKenyaequippedtheofficewithcomputers,aprinterandotherbasicofficeequipment.The international expert provided technical advice tothe Secretariat. A manual on Tana LUP and SEA wasdeveloped and the terms of reference for the secretariat agreed upon.

During the IMTC site visit in September 2011, the Tana Delta site based PlanningAdvisoryCommittee (TPAC)wasconstituted.TheTPACwasmadeupof21membersof which 19 represent local community interestsincluding pastoralists, fisher folk, farmers, womengroups, development oriented CBOs, conservationgroups, marine fishermen, people with disabilities,among others. Four key government agencies madeuptheother4PACmembersandincludedtheDistrictDevelopment Officer, District Livestock Officer,DistrictAgricultureOfficer andDistrict Commissioner.The March 2013 general elections ushered in a newdevolved governance system centered on counties.ConsequentlytheTPACbecamegreatlyexpanded(toamembershipof67)toaccommodatecountygovernmentinterests. The PAC is convened under the authorityof a chair appointed by theCountyGovernments andeachmeetingischairedbyaTPACmemberselectedonrotation.TheroleofthecommitteeistoprovideadviceandfeedbackonthecontentoftheLUPandSEAbasedonpaperstobepresentedtoit.Inthisrespect,theTPACmirrorstheworkoftheIMTCatnationallevelwithintheDelta.

1.5.2 Stakeholder consultationsAt the launch of the Tana Delta planning process in September2011,theIMTCheldlauncheventmeetingsat District level (Gamba Guest House) and local launch events at Moa, Dide Waride and Tarasaa. From1st-3rd February2012,theIMTClaunchedtheLUPfor Tana Delta at divisional level (Kipini, Garsen and Tarasaa)followedbyvillagelevelmeetingsatGatundu,MoaandOzi.InMarch–June2012NatureKenyastaffinTanaDeltaandDistrictLivestockProductionOfficer,District Agricultural Officer and District DevelopmentOfficerconductedmeetingsinallthe106villagesintheDeltatofacilitatecommunitymemberstoprovideinputviaaquestionnairethatwasdevelopedandreviewedbytheLUPandSEA teams.Theoutcomesofvillage landuse planningmeetings included development of initialVillageLUPmaps,whichfed intotheLUPprocessandwillfurtherinformitsimplementation.

InMarch2012, theSEAworkinggroupheldmeetingsin Kipini, Danisa, Kibusu, Moa, Dide Waride to collect data on issues affecting the communities in TanaDelta for planning purposes. The SEA secretariat held discussionswiththecountycouncilsofTanaRiverandLamu,bothrecognizedasimportantplayersintheTanaDelta. This helped clarify the purpose of the entireprocessanddefuseanysuspicion.TheWaterResourcesManagementAuthority,TanacatchmentRegionalOffice,wasalsovisitedandimportantinformationobtainedthatinformedtheSEA. IthoweveremergedthattheWaterResourceUsersAssociations (WRUAs)were yet to beestablishedinthelowerdelta.

1.5.3 Independent ReviewInNovember2011,NEMArequested theNetherlandsCommission for Environmental Assessment to advise ontheStrategicEnvironmentalAssessmentoftheLandUsePlan,fortheTanaDeltainKenya.TheCommissionandNEMAagreedtoapplyatwo-stepapproach:firstlythe Commissionwould advise before the start of theLUP/SEA on the overall process and approach of theLUP/SEA. Secondly, the Commission would provideadviceon(i)theprocess,moredetailedbaseduponfieldobservationsanddiscussionswithmembersoftheLUPand SEA team and (ii) on the contents of the SEA and the Land use plan. Copies of theCommission’s commentswere made available through the Deltas Secretariatand published on the Commission’swebsite. On bothoccasions advice received guided the focus and SEA/LUPprocessonmethodologyandontheneedtocentretheLUPonwateravailability inthecatchment.NatureKenya, the international consultant and the DeltasSecretariatrespondedtotheCommission’sadvice.TheCommission has also agreed to review the draft finalLUPandSEAoncompletionofthesetwodocuments.


Figure 2.1 Urban Centers, Drainage and Transport System of Tana Delta

CHAPTER

2 KEY PLANNING ISSUES

2.1 IntroductionTheRiverTanaisover700kilometreslongandisKenya’slongestriver.ItrisesinMountKenyaandtheAberdaremountainrangeincentralKenya,meanderingtotheTanaDelta,avastfloodplainecosystemthatishighlyrichinwildlife (Maingi andMarsh, 2002).TheDelta is a richmosaicofpalmsavannah,seasonallyfloodedgrassland,swamps, riverine forest fragments, lakes, woodland,mangroves, sand dunes, beaches and the river itself. The Delta provides refuge for over 350 species of birds, including the globally threatened Basra ReedWarbler

(Bennun and Njoroge, 1999). It is also home to twoendemicandendangeredprimates, theTanaRiverRedColobusmonkeyandtheTanaRiverCrestedMangabey,aswellasprovidinganimportantwildlifedispersalareafor hippopotamus, crocodiles, elephants and other big game fromTsavoNational Park (Bennun andNjoroge,1999).Anareaof2250km2 encompasses the Delta and formsthecoreofthePlan,althoughthisissurroundedby a buffer zone 20 kilometres wide which covers afurther 4020 Km2.


Figure 2.2 Major Roads and Towns in the Kenyan Coastal Area

The Delta provides essential ecosystem servicesto 102,000 people living in the Plan Area includingpastoralistswhodependonthewaterandgrasslandsfortheirlivestockduringthedryseason,theagriculturalistswho cultivate rice and other crops on the recedingfloodplain edges and the fishermen from severalethnicgroupswhofishfromitslakesandwatercourses(Odhengo et al,2014a).When thisvastwetland is leftundisturbed, it acts like a sponge, absorbing floods,storingwaterandremaininggreenduringthedryseason.The thick vegetation also absorbs carbon dioxide gasfromtheair(Kithekaet al, 2002).

Evensmallchangestothehydrologicalsystemcanupsetthe natural balance of a delta. This needs to be verycarefullyassessedinallsituations.ThisPlanisbasedona thorough assessment of the relevant issues for Tana Deltaandsetsoutablueprintforensuringthatthelong-term future of the Tana Delta is enhanced.

The ambitious national economic developmentplan, dubbed Vision 2030, produced by the formeradministration, pinpointed the River Tana Basin as

a priority site for agricultural expansion, withouttesting the viability of the underlying concepts interms of their local social, environmental or economic effects.Consequently, theTanaDelta is under seriousconsideration for a range of development projects,including oil seed farming, massive sugar cane plantations, biofuel farms, exploration for oil and gas,andtitaniumextraction.Allofthesecouldthreatentheintegrityofthedeltaecosystem.

Unless guided by a planning framework based onStrategic Environmental Assessment (SEA), the responses tocompetinghuman,wildlifeandeconomicinterestsarelikelytobelargelyshort-term.Povertyandinequality remains high inKenya– inTanaDelta 73%ofpeoplestill livebelowthepoverty line (Odhengoet al,2014a).TheTanaDeltahaspotentialbothtobettermeet the needs of its inhabitants and contribute to the nationaleconomy.

2.2 Major IssuesTheSEAundertaken to inform thisLandUsePlanhashighlightedmajorissueswhichneedtobeaddressedif


the long-term future of theTanaDelta and its peopleis to be assured. Each of these issues is summarised below.TheSEAispublishedasaseparatereportwhichaccompaniesthisLandUsePlan(Odhengoet al, 2014a).

2.2.2 Insufficient Employment opportunities and income for CommunitiesAlthough 14 The major sources of income for local communities include pastoralism, agriculture, fisheriesand natural resource harvesting. These have thepotential to deliver more employment and higherincome. However, locally developed, small scale, highvalue agriculture requires good production methods,processing facilities (e.g. abattoirs, milk processingplants)andtraininginbusinessskills.TheTanaDeltaisclose to tourism centres and its rich cultural diversity,wildlife and landscapes are spectacular and representpotential gains to poor local people and Kenyans atlargebuttheseopportunitiesarenotbeingmaximised.Diversifying income streams using local sustainableresourcesispossible,butrequiresinitialplanning,capitalinvestment, support and training.

2.2.3 Water ResourcesKenyaisexpectedtoexperienceaslightincreaseintheamountofrainfalloverthenext50yearsasaresultofclimate change but the country will also be exposedtohigher temperaturesandhigh levelsofevaporation.There are significant amounts of groundwater insome regions, but not within the Tana Delta. Thereare also opportunities to construct small-scalerainwater retention dams on lagas (seasonal streams).Consequently,theamountofwaterflowingintheRiverTana and available for use is unlikely to increase butthe demands upon the river are growing very rapidly.Exploitationofwaterresourcesintheuppercatchment,through dam construction and diversions, has alreadyledtoasignificantchangeinriverflow.Thefrequencyand duration ofmajor floods has been reduced,whilethere has been some small increase in minimal flowsduringthedryseasonsasaresultof increasedstorageand daily releases from existing upstream dams. Damconstructionintheuppercatchmenthasgreatlyreducedthe sediment load carried by the River Tana, whichreduces the amount of silt reaching the Delta.

Figure 2.3 General Planning Issues in the Tana River Delta


Thisinturnleadstoareductioninsoilfertility.Overthenext20 to40years somevery ambitiousprojects areplannedintheregion,includingpowergenerationfromthenewHighGrandFallsDam,developmentoftheLamuPortSouthSudanEthiopiaTransport(LAPSSET)corridor,andextensiveirrigation.Intheory,alloftheseusescouldbeaccommodatedbutonlyifalargeregulatingreservoirisbuilt,asanintegralpartofthefirstphaseoftheHighGrandFallsDaminthemiddleRiverTanaBasin,inwhichsurpluswatercanbestoreduntilitisneeded.

There are currentlynofirmplans tobuild this storagereservoir andwithout itwater development upstreamwill have serious impactson the lowerRiverTanaandthe Tana Delta.

2.2.4 Resource Use ConflictsShortageofwaterhasbeenamajorcontributoryfactortotherecentconflictsintheTanaDeltaassomesectionsof the pastoral and farming communities have foughtover access to the river and the damage caused to crops by both livestock and wild animals. These problemsbecomeparticularlyacuteduringthedryseasonswhenvery large numbers of cattle are driven from remoteareastotheDeltainordertofindgrazingandwater.

2.2.5 Population DynamicsThe population of the Tana Delta has increasedsignificantly in the last 40 years and will continue torise over the next four decades unless measures aretaken to encourage voluntary family planning and todiscouragethenumberofpeoplewhoaremigratingintothis coastal region in search of land and the prospect ofwork.DetailedanalysisthroughtheuseofscenariosandSEAhasshownthattheareaoftheDeltacouldnotsupportatreblingofpopulationfromaroundthecurrent100,000toover300,000by2050withoutfundamentalchanges in lifestyle and the destruction of the area’sunique habitats and environment. Even a doubling of the population, which is expected to occur by 2035,wouldgreatlyaddtoconflictsoverdiminishingnaturalresourcesandconflictsoverrightstolandandwater.

2.2.6 Local Communities are not represented in Governance Processes affecting the DeltaLocal communities are already aware of the negativeimpacts of uncoordinated development, for example,thefailedTanaandAthiRiversDevelopmentAuthority(TARDA)irrigatedriceschemeinthe1990sleftalegacyof poverty and environmental damage. Furthermore,pastoralists complain that the allocation of land bygovernment to large-scale development proposalsconflicts with pastoralists’ traditional rights, notrecognisedinstatutorylaw.However,thecommunitiesarelargelyunorganised,especiallythemostisolatedand

marginalised,andtheirviewsondevelopmentproposalsdo not have formal recognition within the decision-makingprocess.

Historically, many decisions on land use in the TanaDelta were taken without regard for the interests ofthe resident population and the local communitieswho have held the land in trust for generations. Thishas resulted in large areas of the Delta being held in disputed ownerships and a lack of transparency overland rights anddevelopmentproposals.This LandUsePlan makes a new start by considering the legitimateneeds of communities and the potential uses of landwithout regard to ownership structure.The plan itselfcannotalteranylegitimateordisputedagreementsoverlandrights,whicharerightfullymattersfortheNationalLand Commission (NLC) and the courts. But the plandoesmake clearwhat types of use of land andwaterareconsideredacceptableinboththenationalandlocalinterestand,asaresult,theplanwillhavemajorinfluenceoverthewayinwhichlanddisputesaresettled.

2.2.7 External InvestmentThe social and economic changes outlined above require that strategies, projects and investments are developed forthebenefitoftheTanaDeltacommunitiesandthenationasawhole.TheTanaDeltacontainsexceptionalresources and should be managed and exploitedsustainably. Unfortunately, many previous proposalsfor investments have been conceived largely for thebenefits of external interests whether of the state orprivate business. These development strategies had three major failings in common. Firstly, they ignoredthehydrologicalconstraintsimposedbytheRiverTana’sfloodregime.Secondly,theyassumedthatthelandwasvacantandignoredtheexistingrightsandoccupationoflandbylocalpeople.Thirdly,theyignoredthesymbiosiswhich exists between human activity, land use andthe outstanding natural environment of the Delta. This Land Use Plan seeks to provide major developmentopportunitieswithin a framework inwhich theoverallresourcesoftheDeltaaremanagedsustainably.

2.2.8 Social and Cultural InfluencesThediverseethnicbackgroundandculturesoftheTanaDelta communities add greatly to its special qualitiesand in accordance with the Constitution they shouldberespectedandprotected.However,futuredemandsfor resourceswithin thegrowingpopulationwillmeanthatsomechangesinlifestyleareinevitable.Changeisalsonecessaryinordertocombatseverepovertyandtoprovidebettereducationandhealthfacilitiesforall.Theneedfortheselifestylechangeswillneedtobeaddressedby allmembers of the community in overcoming localrivalrieswhichcanleadtoconflict.


2.2.9 Climate ChangeTheTanaDeltaalreadyexperienceswidefluctuationsinclimatic conditions including pronouncedflooding anddroughts. The immediate coastline can receive more than600mmofrainfallinayearwhileonly50kminlandrainfallmaybelessthan300mm.Inthesecircumstanceslocal people arewell adapted to copingwith climaticfluctuations on a seasonal and annual basis. Howeverconsidering thetimescaleof the LandUsePlanwhichextendsto2050it ispossiblethatglobalwarmingandrising sea levelwill already start to have a significantimpactontheTanaDelta.Inthenext20yearstheremaybemoreprolongedrainfallandfloodingevents(althoughthese may be counteracted by the building of theHighGrandFallsDam). Inthenext40yearsapossibleincreaseof15-25cminmeansealevelcouldseriouslyreducethescopeoffarmingonthosepartsofthelowerfloodplain lyingwithin 20 to 30 km of the coast.Anysuchchangeswillbegradualandprovidingcontingencyandadaptationmeasureshavebeenproperlydevelopedandimplemented,thereisnoreasonwhytheycannotbeaccommodatedwithinthisLandUsePlan.

2.2.10 Ecological ConditionTheinternationalvalueoftheecologyoftheTanaDeltahasbeenrecognisedinitsidentificationasanImportant

BirdArea(IBA)byBirdLifeInternationalanddesignationas aRamsar site (wetlandof international importance)by the Kenyan Government. Ramsar sites should bemanaged in accordancewith theprinciple ofwiseuse(essentially sustainable development). However, thefollowingchallengesarefacedwithintheTanaDelta:• Destruction and loss of some key habitats as a

resultofover-exploitation,poorlandusepractices,encroachment and unplanned and unregulated human settlement, and unsustainable agriculturaldevelopment.

• Decliningwater quality due to increased pollutionandsiltationfromtheuppercatchment.

• Inadequate communication, education andawarenessonDeltamanagementissues

• Uncoordinatedresearchandmonitoringprogrammesthatdonotadequately informthemanagementofDeltaresourcesonissuesaffectingthem.

• Inadequatemechanismstoaddressriskmanagementissues affecting theDelta such as climate change,drought,floodsandtsunamiandstormsurges.

• Inadequate partnership and cooperation betweengovernment, private sector and non-governmentalorganizations.

• InadequateactionstopreserveandconservenaturalandculturalheritagewithintheDeltaecosystem.


CHAPTER

3 VISION, GOAL, OBJECTIVES AND GUIDING PRINCIPLES

3.1 Introduction The Tana River Delta is a special place which hasinternational recognition as a Ramsar site becauseof its wetlands and rich biodiversity and presence ofindigenous peoples. It is home to more than 100,000 peoplewhohave adapted their indigenouswayof lifeand their livelihoods to the dynamic conditionswhichincludebothextremefloodsanddroughts.

In recent decades the Delta’s unique characteristicshave been threatened, as noted in the previous chapter, byreductionsinwaterflow,duetodevelopmentintheupperandmiddlecatchmentoftheRiverTana,andbypoorly planned and executed developments that havefailed to take account of local needs or the specialenvironmentalconditionsintheDelta.

IfthespecialqualitiesoftheDeltaaretobepreservedfor the benefit of present and future generations it isimportant that a clear vision, goals and guiding principles

are set, and that the mechanisms for securing these are definedintheLandUsePlan.

3.2 The Vision and GoalVision“Land in the Tana Delta is managed sustainably byand for stakeholders ensuring ecological integrityand sustainable livelihoods for present and future generations”.

Goal“Tocontributetothisvision,futurelanduseintheTanaDeltawillbeadministeredbytheGovernmentatnationalandcountylevelinaccordancewiththeLandUsePlan.The plan will ensure that all resources (human, land,water,wildlife,vegetationandminerals)areusedwithinthe natural carrying capacity of the Delta to improvethequalityof lifefor localpeople,strengthenthelocaland national economy and sustain the exceptionalbiodiversityofthisecosystem”.

Figure 3.1 Tana River Delta Land Use Plan Counties


3.3 Establishing Guiding PrinciplesThisvisionwillonlybeachievedifcertainprinciplesandconditionscanbesatisfied.Thesearediscussed intheparagraphswhichfollow.

3.3.1 Available ResourcesThe Plan Area covers 225,000 hectares and there isstrongcompetitionforuseof landandwaterbetweendifferentelementsofitsresidentcommunitiesandalsowiththosewhobringanimalstograzeanddrinkduringthe dry seasons. These resources are finite and arealreadybeingerodedbycompetinginterestsupstream.They are also being exploited by an ever-increasingnumberofpeopleas thepopulationrises fromnaturalgrowthandinwardmigrationtotheDelta.

If the resourcesof theDelta are tobeusedwithin itsnaturalcarryingcapacity,thiswillnecessitaterestrictionsonactivitiesthatsquanderlandorwaterunsustainablyand, ultimately, on the numbers of people who canoccupytheDelta.

3.3.2 Efficiency of UseIn the past, land in Tana Delta has been allocated or appropriated for specific uses and then held for longperiodsoftimewithoutanyformofbeneficiallanduse.All land in theDelta has existinguses andvalues andshouldonlybeallocatedinfutureforothertypesofuseifthesenewusesdemonstrateclearoverallbenefitstothecommunities,environmentandeconomyandavoidinefficiencyofuse.

3.3.3 Stewardship, Accountability and ResponsibilityEveryonewho uses the natural resources of theTanaDeltahasanobligationundertheconstitutiontorespectthe environment for their ownand future generationsand this requires every land user to show properstewardship, accountability and responsibility for thewaytheyuselandandwater.

3.3.4 Equitable, Fair and Timely Planning DecisionsFuturedecisionswillbetakenbytherelevantauthoritiesinanopenandtransparentmannerwithoutunnecessarydelay and all interested parties including groups thatare often marginalised such as youths, women, theelderlyand infirmwillbe included inparticipationandconsultationprocesses.

3.3.5 Precautionary PrincipleThe fragile and irreplaceable natural assets of the Tana Deltaneedtobeprotectedagainstun-informeddecisionmakingwhich could causepermanent loss or damage.Whereinsufficient informationispresentedtosupportnew development, and there is a potential risk to the

environment,socialand/orculturalassetsoftheDelta,such developmentmay be refused on the grounds ofprematurityuntiltherelevantresearchandinformationhas been gathered.

3.3.6 Public/Private PartnershipsPublicprivatepartnershipsintheTanaDeltawilldeliverbenefits to the people and ecosystem of the TanaDelta with no net loss to people and natural capital.A public–private partnership (PPP) is a governmentserviceorprivatebusinessventurewhichisfundedandoperated through a partnership of government and one ormoreprivatesectorcompanies.Thereareusuallytwofundamental drivers forPPPs.Firstly,PPPsenable thepublic sector toharness the expertise andefficienciesthat the private sector can bring to the delivery ofcertain facilities and services traditionally procuredand delivered by the public sector. Secondly, a PPP isstructured so that the public sector body seeking tomakeacapitalinvestmentdoesnotincuranyborrowing.Rather, the PPP borrowing is incurred by the privatesectorvehicle implementingtheprojectandtherefore,from the public sector’s perspective, a PPP is an “off-balancesheet”methodoffinancingthedeliveryofnewor refurbished public sector assets. There are lessons to learn from theTARDA scheme,whichwas not a PPP,hence leading to net loss as tax payers are servicingloans for a failed scheme.

3.3.7 All Elements of the Plan should help to Implement the ConstitutionResponsibility for granting licences for theuseof landin Kenya lieswith theNational LandCommission andwiththenewcountygovernments.Infuture,alllandusedecisionswill need to beweighed carefully to ensurethatsocietyasawholebenefitsfromuseoflandandnotjust powerful individuals, elites and corporate bodies.Each planning application for use of land in theDeltawillneedtobeaccompaniedbyacarefully researchedjustification of the proposal demonstrating how itwill benefit the local community in terms of reducingpoverty, increasingfoodsecurity,creatingemploymentorstrengtheningcommunitiesinotherways;howitwillimprove economic performance in the Delta and the wider region and how itwill protect and enhance thenaturalenvironment.Ifthis informationissubmittedinan open and transparentmanner the decision-makingbodyshould respondquicklyand fairly;delaywillonlybenecessaryincontroversialcaseswheremoretimeisneededforconsultationoriftheplanningdocumentsareinadequate.Theprincipleofsubsidiaritywillbeappliedinrecognitionthatcertaindecisionsandactionsarebestmade at local levels.


3.3.8 Ecosystem-based ApproachAn ecosystem-based approach will be adoptedwhichrecognizestherelationshipandinter-linkagesbetweenall components of thewider ecosystems including thehuman/socialcomponents,theuppercatchmentzonesand the river basins.

3.3.9 Upholding the Rule of LawFuture decisions will observe policy and legalinstruments, including existing national policies,regulationsandguidelinesandlegislationdomesticatinginternationalinterestsinmanagementofdeltassetoutinMultilateral Environmental Agreements (MEAs) andRegionalinstruments.

3.3.10 Application of the Polluter Pays PrincipleThePolluterPaysPrinciplewillbeappliedwherethosewhopollutetheTanaDeltaecosystemmeetthefullcostofcleaning/restorationandthecostofpollutiontotheresource users.

3.3.11 Co-operation, Collaboration and IntegrationMostlandusesintheTanaDeltarequireco-operation,collaborationandsometimes integrationwithadjacentprojects and schemes to maximise the way in whichlandandwater isusedandavoidunnecessaryconflict.ElementsoftheLandUsePlanhavebeendesignedtomaximiseopportunities for co-operation, collaborationandintegration.

3.3.12 Decisions will be based on Sound Scientific Evidence and ExperienceItiscommonforlandtobeacquiredspeculativelyorforprojects to be submitted for an environmental licencebeforetheyhavebeenproperlytestedagainstthebodyofscientificevidence.TheLandUsePlanwillencouragecarefullyresearchedandpilotedprojectsbeforeallowinglarge scale development to take place and adaptivemanagementprincipleswillbeapplied.

3.3.13 Planning Policies will be Flexible to Accommodate Changing CircumstancesTheTanaLandUsePlan isdesignedtocoveratwentyyeartimehorizon and it is certain that conditionswillchangeoverthattimescale.Consequently,theplanwillneedtoberevisedandrefinedatfiveyearintervalstoensurethatitiskeptup-to-date.

3.3.14 Respect for Property RightsInaccordancewiththeConstitution,landownershipinKenyawill be subject to review by theNational LandCommission. Different forms of tenure exist and insome cases historical injustices have to be redressed.However, in the longer term the plan will encourageclearandunambiguousformsoflandownershipinorderto avoid the sort of land disputes that have occurred in the past.


CHAPTER

4 NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL POLICIES

4.1 Policy ContextThis Plan builds on the Constitution of Kenya (2010),national policies and international conventions. Itplaces particular emphasis on the importance of localcommunities and on the exceptional environmentalqualities which make the Tana Delta of internationalimportance for its biodiversity. The preamble to theConstitutionofKenyanotes(amongstotherthings)that:“WethepeopleofKenya;proudofourethnic,culturalandreligiousdiversity,anddeterminedtoliveinpeaceand unity as one indivisible sovereign nation; andrespectful of the environment, which is our heritage,and determined to sustain it for the benefit of futuregenerations-haveadoptedtheconstitution”.

The importance of land and environment is highlighted bythefactthatacompletechapter(5)oftheConstitutionisdevotedtoit.Section60(1)statesthat:“Land in Kenya shall be held, used and managed ina manner that is equitable, efficient, productive andsustainable and in accordance with the followingprinciples–a)equitableaccesstoland;b)securityoflandrights;c)sustainableandproductivemanagementoflandresources;d)transparentandcosteffectiveadministrationofland;e)soundconservationandprotectionofecologicallysensitiveareas;f)eliminationofgenderdiscriminationinlaw,customsandpracticesrelatingtolandandpropertyinland; andg)encouragementofcommunitiestosettlelanddisputesthroughrecognisedlocalcommunityinitiativesconsistentwiththisConstitution”.

TheConstitutionemphasisestheroleofanationallandpolicy and the National Land Commission in settlingdisputesanddirectingfuturepolicy.

Other importantobligationsofthestatearesetout insection69(1)asfollows:

a)“ensuresustainableexploitation,utilisation, managementandconservationoftheenvironment and natural resources, and ensure equitable sharing oftheaccruingbenefits;b)protectandenhanceintellectualpropertyin,andindigenousknowledgeof,biodiversityandthegeneticresourcesofthecommunities;c)encouragepublicparticipationinthemanagement,protectionandconservationoftheenvironment;d)protectgeneticresourcesandbiologicaldiversity;e)establishsystemsofenvironmentalimpact assessment, environmental audit and monitoring of theenvironment;f)eliminateprocessesandactivitiesthatarelikelytoendangertheenvironment;andg)utilisetheenvironmentandnaturalresourcesforthebenefitofthepeopleofKenya”.

AnumberoftheobligationssetoutintheConstitutionremaintobeconvertedtoactsofparliamentandpolicyby the government.However, there aremany existingpolicies, laws and regulationswhich do give effect totheseprinciplesandthesehavebeenexaminedaspartof the planning process. This analysis highlighted theimportance of the Constitution and drew attentiontoVision 2030, and individual policies on land,water,agriculture,forests,regionaldevelopment,andirrigation.Not surprisingly, policies sometimes contain elementsthat conflict with one another, especially where anumber of different aspirations are being promotedwithin the same physical area. So, for example,developing agriculture or irrigation can prove to be achallenge in water-stressed catchments while largescaletourismcouldbeincompatiblewithprotectionofa forest reserve.A key element in this LandUse Planhas, therefore been to review all national policies andtest them for consistency against each other and inrelation to thevision, goal and objectives of theTanaLandUsePlan.Figure 4.1below illustrates thedegreeofconsistencyandcompatibilitybetweensomeof thekeypolicies.DetailsofthepolicyanalysisarecontainedinAppendix1,Part2.


Figure 4.1 Consistency Analysis


CHAPTER

5 ANTICIPATING LONG TERM REGIONAL TRENDS

5.1 IntroductionTheTanaRiverDelta is locatedinapartofKenyathatwill undergo very significant changes in the next 50years.These includevariations in temperature, rainfall,riverflowandbiodiversityasaresultofglobalwarmingbut also major changes in the region’s economic andsocial conditions arising from government policy andindividualandcorporateinitiatives.

Inconsideringdevelopmentsoverthenext17yearsitispossibletobuildupapictureofchangebasedonspecificproposals contained in Vision 2030 and other strategic documents like theNationalWaterManagementPlan,2030. However, the situation beyond 2030 is likelyto be much more fluid. The Strategic EnvironmentalAssessmentwhichaccompaniesthisLandUsePlanhasexamined the likelypatternofchangeup to2030and2050, from which the following key conclusions aredrawn.

5.2 Changes to 20305.2.1 Water ResourcesWorkisexpectedtostartontheHighGrandFallsDamwithinthenexttwoyearsandthisreservoirwouldthentake3to4yearstofill.Productionofelectricityandthedevelopment of irrigation could therefore commencearound 2020. During the filling stages, retention offloodwatercouldreducetheamountofwaterreachingtheTanaDelta so the CountyGovernmentswill needto work closely with Water Resources ManagementAuthority (WRMA) and Kengen to ensure that anyadverse effects are minimised. An additional storagereservoiriscurrentlyproposedforconstructionin2027,buttheSEAfindingshavedemonstratedthatthisworkneedstocommenceinparallelwiththeHGFDifmajordamagetotheTanaDeltaecosystemandlivelihoodsisto be avoided.

5.2.2 The Port of Lamu/ Lamu-Port-South-Sudan-Ethiopia-Transport Corridor (LAPSSET) Development of a new port at Lamu, which is onecomponent of the LAPSSET corridor, is potentiallyone of the largest construction enterprises on theAfrican continent. The speed at which it progresseswillbedictatedbytheavailabilityoffundsbutoverthetimescaleto2030itislikelythatanewcitywillhavebeencreated around the port togetherwith an oil refinery,new industrial area and other major infrastructure.Thisdevelopmentwill generate significantdemand for

labour, food and water. The Tana and Lamu CountyGovernmentsandothergovernmentagencieswillneedto work closely together to maximise the benefits ofthis investment for the entire sub-region. The projectshouldcreateworkforresidentsoftheTanaDeltaandopportunitiestoprovidegoodsandservicestothenewcity. At the same time the county governments musttakestepstoensurethattheneedsoftheDeltaitselfforwaterandlandareproperlyprotected.

5.2.3 Business DevelopmentNewinvestmentintheregionwillprovideanimportanteconomic stimulus which the Tana Delta is well-positioned to take advantage of.As the port expandsthere will be scope for developing export tradeparticularly inmeat, fish, fruit andvegetables and theplan anticipates the creation of four industrial sites inGarsen, Witu, Tarasaa and Kipini.

5.2.4 Wildlife and Nature ConservationThetrendsoutlinedabovewillputincreasingstrainsonthe environment and natural habitatswithin the TanaRiverBasinandelsewhereinKenya.Thesepressureswillbecomemorepronouncedonlandwithinandadjacentto protected areas and important migratory corridorsusedbywildlife. Inthesecircumstancestheprotectionand preservation of unique ecosystems like the TanaDeltawill becomeanevenhigherpriority than it is atpresent.

5.2.5 Population GrowthThe local population of theTanaDelta is expected tocontinuegrowingfromaround102,000peoplein2010to175,000by2030,therebyincreasingdemandforlandand natural resources.

5.3 Changes from 2030 to 20505.3.1 Water ResourcesSuccessful development of the High Grand Falls Damand regulating reservoir will require a detailed waterbalance and allocation plan in order to meet a widerange of objectives, including nature conservation,irrigation, commercial and domestic use in the lowerRiverTanabasin.Responsibility for theseplanswill beinaccordancewiththeWaterAct(2002),butneedtobecoordinatedwiththecountygovernments.Thereisalsoaneed for regular inter-countyconsultationsonwaterresourcesalongtheRiverTana.


5.3.2 Irrigation DevelopmentPlans for irrigation development are currentlybeing drawn up throughout Kenya in line with thegovernment’s declared intention to create onemillionacres of new irrigation by 2030. Since the RiverTanacarries70%ofthenationalfreshwaterflowitiscertainthatasignificantproportionofthis irrigationwillneedtobelocatedwithin,oradjacentto,theTanacatchment.Current proposals include renovation of theHola andBurairrigationschemesandpromotionof irrigationontheGalenaRanchwhichfallspartlywithintheRiverAthiandRiverTanaCatchments.

Previous efforts to develop irrigationwithin theDeltaandatHolaandBuraprovedtobeveryexpensiveandfailedtocapitaliseontheinitialinvestment.Asirrigationworks are carried out, it is essential that these aredesignedaroundthesamesustainabilityprinciplesthathavebeenadoptedinthisPlanfortheTanaDeltaitself.TheCountyGovernments,asmanagersoftheTanaDeltaLandUsePlan,willinsistthatanyirrigationdevelopmentwhichtakesplaceupstreamisdesignedtoreturnsurpluswatertotheRiverTanachannelratherthandivertingitto neighbouring catchments.

5.3.3 Business DevelopmentExpansionof theLamuPort and surroundingareawillcontinue creating potentially one of the strongestgrowth zones in Kenya. Development of the strategicroadinfrastructureandnewpowerdistributionnetworkwillcreatemajoropportunitiesforDeltasettlementsandGarseninparticularbecauseofitsstrategicpositionatthejunctionofroadsleadingtoNairobiandMombasa.It is a major component of this plan to capitalise on the developmenttoprocessTanaDeltaproductsandmarketthesethroughoutKenya.

5.3.4 Wildlife and Nature ConservationThe trend of increasing pressure on a diminishing area andrangeofnaturalhabitatswillcontinueandthiscouldleadtopermanentdamagetotheTanaDelta.HoweveritsstatusasaRamsarsitedemandsthatseriouseffortsare

madetoprotectandenhancekeyhabitats.Maintenanceof the habitats represents a major challenge but there is alsoanexcellentopportunityforstimulatingecotourismandgeneratingmajorfinancialresourcesforthearea.

5.3.5 Population GrowthThe demand for natural resources including land and waterwill continue to grow across Kenya throughoutthe next 40 years. If population continues to riseat its previous rate of 3% a year this will lead to adoubling of the national population within 30 years.TheequivalentgrowthrateswithintheTanaDeltawillraisethepopulationlevelfrom175,000peoplein2030to315,000 in2050.Experience inothercountrieshasshownthatthenaturalrateofpopulationincreaseslowsdownasacountrybecomesmoreprosperous.Howeverindividual wealth, education and living standards canleadtowidelydifferentstandardswithineachcountry.Unless there are some dramatic improvements insocial and economic conditionswithin theTanaDeltapopulationexpansionislikelytocontinue,withseriousrisksofsocialinstabilityandconflict.

5.4 Key Messages and Recommendations for the PlanThechangesanticipatedover thenext20 to40yearsrequirethatanumberofactionsaretakeninrelationtotheTanaDeltaLandUsePlan.Theseinclude:1. StrongrepresentationbytheCountyGovernments

to ensure that the resource interests of the Tana Delta and adjacent areas are properly consideredandaddressedinnationalplansforwaterresourceandirrigationdevelopment.

2. Apositiveeconomicstrategyispursuedtomaximiseopportunities for sustainable developmentassociated with the Port of Lamu and LAPSSETcorridor.

3. The true economic value of the Delta ecosystemshould be recognised in all future development planningandcreativeandimaginativeprogrammesfor securing investment in ecotourism and management of carbon resources should be pursued.


CHAPTER

6 THE PLAN AREA AND PLANNING ZONES

6.1 The Plan AreaInordertoassisttheprocessofmakingfuturedecisionsonlanduseanddevelopmentintheTanaRiverDeltatheareahasbeendividedintoanumberofPlanningZones.TheprocessofdefiningPlanningZones isdescribed inChapter6(Part2).

TheLandUsePlanrelatestotwoprincipalzones:a. theDelta,whichincludesallareasaffectedbyRiver

TanafromthePrimateReservetothesea,(SeePlan6.1) and,

b. theBufferZone,whichextendsfromtheboundaryoftheDeltaoutwardstoaminimumdistanceof20kilometres(SeePlan6.2).

Figure 6.1 Map Showing the Tana Delta Plan Area


Figure 6.2 Map Showing the Extent of the Tana Delta Plan Buffer Zone

TheDelta includes thewhole of the RiverTanaDeltafrom the Primate Reserve to the sea and the higherground (terraces) on either sidewithin the boundariesof themainMalindi-Hola highway. It also includes anareaoflandlyingtothenorthoftheGarsen–WituroadwhichfallswithintheadministrativeareaofTanaRiverCountyandatriangleoflandextendingfromtheWitu-KipiniroadtotheseawhichformspartofLamuCounty.

Within the Delta a distinction is made for planningpurposesbetweentheUpperDelta(lyingbetweenthePrimateReserveandtheGarsen–WituRoad)andtheLower Delta (which extends from the Garsen –WituRoadtothesea)(SeePlan6.2).TheLowerDeltahasbeendefinedbroadlyinlinewiththeboundaryoftheRamsar

designation.ThedistinctionbetweenUpperandLowerDeltaisnotonlybasedontopography,butthefactthatmuchoftheUpperDeltahasbeentransformedbylarge-scalecultivation.Whereasincontrast,two-thirdsoftheLower Delta retains a natural character, albeit underincreasingpressurefromgrazingandencroachmentbysemi-permanentcultivation.

TheBufferZoneextendstwentykilometresbeyondtheboundariestotheDeltaCoreand includesdrythicket,rangeland and ephemeral river valleys (lagas) that areidenticalincharactertotheterraces.InpracticethereislittletodifferentiateanyofthislandthatextendsallthewaytoTsavoEast,and inanorth-easterlydirectiontoIjara from the terraces.


Figure 6.3 The Upper and Lower Delta


6.2 Existing Character of the Planning Zones within the Delta

6.2.1 Topographic ZonesFor planning purposes four topographic zones aredescribedintheDelta,theseare:RiverCorridors,FloodPlain,Terraces and theCoastalBelt (SeePlan6.4 andBox6.1).

6.2.2 River CorridorsTheRiverTanahasflowedalongmanydifferentroutesthroughboththeupperandlowerpartsofthedeltainthe last one thousand years. In the last one hundredyears theriver’s routehaspassedclosetoGarsenandthen headed through part of the Western terrace (the Oda branch) before crossing the lower floodplain tothe sea (Hamerlynck, 2010). Before 1800, the riverflowed south to Mto Tana, but the excavation of a

canal to provide navigable access from Kipini resulted inthecompleterealignmentoftheriver’scourseduringfloodsinthelate19thcenturyandtheisolationoflandandvillagesalongtheformerroutetoMtoTana,whichcontinuestohaveseriousimplicationsforlanduseandbiodiversitytoday(Hamerlynck,2010).

In 1962 the lower River Tana was again diverted byfloodsandcutanewexittotheseainthecentralsectionofthesanddunesatShekiko(Hamerlynck,2010).Thisnetworkofchannelscontinuestoprovideareleaserouteforfloodwaters(andaninletforsaltwaterincursion),butthemainoutlettodayisthroughtheKipiniestuaryAsrecentlyas the1980s, furtherattemptsweremadetodivertwaterfromtheRiverTanaforagriculturaluse,involving excavation of the Matomba brook, in orderto serve new villages below Idsowe bridge. This hadunexpectedconsequencesandtheMatombabranchhas

Figure 6.4 Topographic Zones, River Corridors, Floodplain, Terraces and Coastal Plain


nowbecomethemainchanneloftheRiverTanawhichdischarges into the central floodplain. Parts of theriver’srouteareconfinedwithinarecognisablechannelbut inother areaswaterflows throughamultitudeofminordepressions,swampsandchannels,whichchangeeachyear,beforerejoiningthemainrivernearOziandflowingtotheseaatKipini(Maingi&Marsh,2002).

A key characteristic of deltaic rivers is for the annualload of silt and sediment which is brought down byfloodwaterfromthehighlandstobedepositedacrossthefloodplainwiththecoarser,heavierparticlessettlingoutfirstasthecurrentslowswhilethefinestsiltissweptintothegrasslands(Kitheka,2002).Thisannualpatternof deposition leads to the build-up of ground levelsimmediately adjacent to the river banks so that thenatural‘levees’thatresulttomaybe1oreven2metreshigher than the surrounding flood plain (Odhengo et al, 2014a). The higher ground along the river corridor servesaveryvaluableroleasthelocationforpermanentsettlementsandforcultivationofvegetables,fruitsandothercropsthatcanbewatereddirectlyfromtheriver(Odhengo et al2014a).Plan6.6showsthegroupingofvillages along the southern river corridor. Although these villagesdoexperiencetheeffectsoffloodingthedepthof water seldom rises above half a metre due to theraisedembankments,whereasthefloodplainsoneithersidemayfillwithametreormoreofwater(Odhengoet al, 2014a).

6.2.3 The FloodplainsTheextent of the activefloodplain of theRiverTanahaschangedovertimeandcontinuestoalterinrelationto the alignment of the main river channels and the volumeofwatercarriedineachfloodevent.Inthepast,

allareaslyingbetweentheouterextremitiesofhistoricriverchannelshaveformedpartof thefloodplainbuttheactivefloodplainisnowconstrainedbytopographyandthereducedriverflowstotheareasshowninPlan6.4. Since five dams were constructed in the uppercatchment reduction in river flows over the last fortyyearshasbeenaccompaniedbyamarkedreductioninsiltcarriedbyfloodwater(Hamerlynck,2012).Thishashadseriousconsequencesforsoil fertility in theDeltabecause the river’sbed loadandsuspendedsolidsarerich inorganicmaterial andnutrients.ConstructionoftheHighGrandFallsDamwillfurtherreducesedimentyieldstotheLowerTanaBasinandTanaDelta.

In prehistoric times most, if not all, of the floodplainwould have been covered by forest,with open pools,lakesandmarshesinthelowestsections.Remnantsoftheoriginalforeststillexistalongtherivercorridors.Thisforest was once a continuous zone stretching acrossAfrica. Tana Riverine Forests retain characteristics ofthis ancient Miocene forest (and elements of West African forest cover)which accounts for its very highbiodiversity(Maingi&Marsh,2002).

The character of the flood plains has changed inthe recent past with decreased runoff due to damconstructionintheupperTanaRiverBasinandincreasedgrazing by both wild herbivores and livestock. Todaymuch of the flood plain consists of tall grasses, reedsand open scrub (Odhengo et al,2014a).Thehighwatertablemaintains veryvariedwetlandvegetationwith adense population of insects, snails, worms, frogs, fishand other animals which provide food for birds andlargeranimalslikecrocodile(Odhengo et al, 2014a). The richnessofthefloraandfaunaintheintertidalareasand

River Corridors (45Km2)–The current channels of the River Tana have a critical function in dictating which areas of the Delta receive water, especially in the dry seasons and have historically determined where settlements are built.

The Flood Plain (700 Km2) – This is the area over which the River Tana has meandered in historic times and it covers nearly 70% of the total Delta. Most of the flood plain was inundated twice a year during the long and short rains until dams were constructed in the Upper Tana Basin. It still experiences frequent, if less reliable, flooding in most years.

The Terraces (1402 Km2) – These are areas of higher ground which flank the flood plain on both the western and eastern sides of the Delta. The terraces are former marine shorelines and are generally drier than the flood plain with extensive thicket and scrub vegetation.

The Coastal Belt (103Km2)– The floodplain of the Delta is separated from the sea by a crescent of sand dunes rising up to 50 metres above sea level. On the seaward side there is a wide sand beach and on the landward side the dunes are flanked by forest and mangrove.

BOX 6.1 Topographic Zones


floodplainsaccountforlargeconcentrationsofresidentand migratory waterbirds and provides a key reasonfor designation of the entire Delta as a Ramsar Site.MigrantsincludetheMadagascarPratincole(withrecentobservations of over 10% of the world population).Nestingwater birds include spoonbills, storks, heronsandegrets(NatureKenya,2008a).

6.2.3.1 The Flood Plain in the Upper DeltaSouthofthePrimateReserve,theRiverTanabreaksupintoanumberofseparatechannelswhichmeanderoverafloodplainwhichvariesfrom2to6kilometresinwidth(Maingi&Marsh,2002).Thesechannelsbifurcateandcoalesceinrandompatternswhichalteraftereachfloodevent.Thereis,however,alargewater-body,LakeAssa,whichexpandsandcontractsaccordingtotheamountof water coming from the upper catchments (Knoop,2012).

Attemptshavebeenmadeinthepasttocanalisepartsoftheriverinordertoestablishintakepointsforwater

abstraction, includingthepresent intakeatSailoni,buttheentirearearemainshighlydynamicandthepowerofthefloodwatereasilyoverwhelmsallbutthehighestandstrongest of embankments.Historically theRiverTanaflowed from north to south along different channelsbut the construction of the Garsen-Witu road on anelevatedembankmenthasnowconfinedtheriver toasingleexitpointunder the IdsoweBridgenearGarsen(Knoop,2012). Nevertheless theriver remains freetomeander upstream of the bridge and threatens to cut anewchannelthroughtheroadembankmentatsomepointinthefuture(Pers.observation).

6.2.3.2 The Central Flood PlainConstruction of theMatombaBrook in 1986 resultedin a major re-alignment of the River Tanawhich nowflows across the Central Flood Plain throughout theyear(Harmerlynck,2012).Thefloodplainformsaveryshallow bowl from west to east although it drops inelevation from11metres above sea level to sea levelandevendescendsbelowmean sea level close to the

Figure 6.5 Planning Issues within the Upper and Lower Floodplain


coast, resulting in areas of brackish open water. Theentire zone is readily inundated by annual floodingevents(Hammerlynck,2012).

Rising sea level, combinedwith the reductionof freshwaterinflowstotheTanaDeltaisleadingtoprogressivechange in vegetation and potentially land use in thelowestsectionsofthecentralfloodplainwithincreasingsalinity in soils fromperiodicfloodingwithsaltywatercausedbybackingupofriverwaterbythefloodtides(Knoop, 2012).

ThecentralzoneisthelargestareaoftheDeltawhichretainsnaturalwetgrassland,marshandforest,althoughthe climax vegetation (woodland) is prevented bygrazing (Odhengo et al,2014a).During thedry seasonthisvastgrasslandprovidesessentialgrazingandwaterforhundredsofthousandsofcattle,inadditiontowildanimals like hippo, buffalo and antelope. In extremedrought cattle may be driven into the area from thewholeofnortheasternKenyaandeventhefrontierareasof Ethiopia and Somalia (Odhengo et al, 2014a).

PermanentvillageshavebeenestablishedbytheOrmapastoralists,whichlielargelyonthesouthernboundaryofthezoneandcanonlybereachedbycrossingtheRiverTana.Thesevillages includeOnkolde,Moa,Dargagalgi,Chalaluma,Didewaride,Onido,Kipao,Mwanja,Odhole,Kikomo, Handaraku, Onwardei, Maderti, Ongonyo,Reketa,Beliangeti,Dibe,BuraKrash,GaliliandGomesa(Odhengo et al, 2014a).

Thewhole zone represents the heart of the IBA.Thishasavery largenumberofwaterbirds(herons,egrets,kingfishersandgeese,etc)andotherwildlifee.g.hippo,crocodiles, buffalo, waterbuck, topi, etc. (Hamerlyncket al, 2002) recorded the endangered Tana River RedColobusandtheTanaRiverCrestedMangabeyinShetanimatwari Forest patchwithin this area. During the dryseason,thisisahigh-riskareaduetohighconcentrationofwildliferesultinginwildlife/humanconflict.Hippoandother herbivores are major grazers andwould disruptanyformoffarming.

Orma, Wardei and Somali people from the former North-Easternprovincegrazelargeherdsoflivestock–cattle,goatsandsheep–inthecentralfloodplainduringthe dry season. In thewet season economic activitiesare limited and artisanal fishing remains the primaryeconomicactivity.Existingfishfarmingisinopenwater/rivers/lakes.Moahassomefishpondsandalandingandprocessingsite.Villagersseektostorewaterindug-outfishpondsandnaturalmeandersduring the longrainyseason(March-June)andshortrainyseason(Sept-Dec)each year. During the wet season all roads become

impassableandthereforemanyriverchannelsareusedfornavigation/transport.

6.2.3.3 The Southern Flood PlainThisareahasexperiencedsomeverysignificantchangesin flooding regime, land use and settlement since theearlynineteenthcenturywhenthefirstcanalisationofthe riverwas undertaken. Diversion of themain riverfromitsmostsoutherlyoutlettoKipiniresulted intheabandonment of settlements along the original riverchannel (Hamerlynck, 2012). With the exception ofDarga, Goshi, and Kibokoni and a newly establishedGiriamavillage,mostsettlementisconcentratedonthehigher ground of the river levees, alongwhat becamethedominantchanneloftheTanaRiverbetween1900and1980(Hamerlynck,2012).

Now, once again, human activity is having significantimpacts on the settlement and land use pattern as aresult of river impoundments and diversions upstream and the global effects of climate change. Reducedflooding and construction of theMatomba Brook hassignificantly depleted the normal river flow (Kitheka,2002). At thepresenttime, farmers seek to augmentwater supplies in thedryseasonbydammingsectionsofthemainriverbutthisisonlyatemporaryoptionandbothwaterareasandsoils in this sectionof the lowerdeltaarebecomingincreasinglysalineduetoseawaterincursion(Hamerlynck,2012).

Areas lying immediately to the south andwest of theRiverTanahavebeencultivatedformanyyears,buttherearesmallwoodlandsandpalmgrovesclosetotheriverandextensiveareasofmarshandwetlandinterspersedwith farming areas.Mangrove is found in saline areasclosetotheriverchannels thatextendtothecoast. Itis important inprovidingfishbreedingsites (Nyunjaet al, 2002).

Areas lying closest to the main river continue to befarmed extensively by the resident community ofPokomo, Giriama and other smaller tribes living alongtheRiverTana corridor.Themain farming and grazingzone lie between two rivers, which discharge fromtheMnazini Brook. Farming practice relies on drylandcropping with limited irrigation for subsistence only.Commercial crops include mangoes, melon, citrus fruits andvegetablessuchastomatoes,sukuma,wiki,onions,chilli, etc. Subsistence crops includemaize, cow peas,green grams, millet, etc (Odhengo et al, 2014a).Risingsalinitylevelsaresaidtoberesultinginreductionofcropyieldsinsomeareas(Odhengoet al, 2014a).

Effortshavebeenmadetodevelopanirrigationsystemto support subsistence agriculture in Ozi community


with the intention of extending this to a commercialoperation.Theschemecomprisesaseriesofsmallcanalsused to bring irrigation water from the river but thenetworkhasbeenabandonedduetosaltwaterintrusion(GovernmentofKenya,2013).Wherefarmsarealreadyaffected by salinity the farmers are forced to try anddrainsalt. Somewater is thenpumped fromthe riverduringebbtidestotryandrecoverenoughfreshwatertofeedthefarms.However,crabsthriveinthebrackishwaterandhavebecomeapestbyfeedingonyoungriceplants.As a result, farmers are increasingly relying onmangoes, coconut and fishing as coping mechanisms(Odhengo et al, 2014a).

During theannualfloodingeventswater isdischargedfrom the Tana River through the Furaha Brook andspreadsintolocalchannelswherefreshwaterfishbreedandaresubsequentlycaughtforsubsistence.Thereareseveral landing sites along the coastal stripwhich areusedbycanoesengagedinmarinefishing(Hamerlynck,2012).

The forests in the lower delta are of considerableecomomic importance includingmangroves inOzi andChara which support marine fish species especiallyduring spawning (Knoop, 2012). Forest trees are animportantsourceofnectarandbeekeepingispractisedin Ozi and Chara areas, mostly in Chara where theypackagehoneyandsellitlocally(tothecommunity)orinMalindi (Odhengo et al, 2014a).

AlocalcommunitygroupcomprisingresidentsofCharaandOzihasbeenestablishedtospearheadthesustainableutilisation of the natural resources in the area (forestproducts, water) and use of these for economic gain.The group, called the Lower Tana Delta ConservationTrust(LTDCT)hasdevelopedaninitialmanagementplan(c.2005)withsupportfromtheKenyaWildlifeService.The LTDCT promotes awareness creation, advocacycampaigns, collaboration and networking with otherinvestors and NGOs including the development ofecotourisminitiativesinbothOziandChara.

Figure 6.6 Planning Issues within the Terraces


AnotherimportantinitiativehasbeenthepreparationofanOziForestManagementPlan(2010).ThisisaspecificplanforOziforestproducedwithsupportfromNatureKenyaanddesignedtobefullycompatiblewithLTDCTplan and with complementary activities, but having amoredetailedfocusontheOziarea.

The first steps have been taken towards developingeco-tourisminassociationwiththeLTDCTandaprivateventure runby theDeltaDunesLodge/Campwhich islocatedneartotheMtoTana.TheLodgehasaprivateairstrip 35mwide and1000metres in length for lightaircraft(Odhengoet al, 2014a).

Atpresentthereisalowlevelofecotourisminthelowerdelta. The Galtama ecotourism group (under the umbrella oftheLTDCT)ownsaboatandlinkswithDeltaDunestotransporttouristsupstreamtoviewaquaticwildlife.ThiscollaborativeventureisquitesuccessfulsincetheDeltaDunes Lodgedoes not have a direct link to river.TheGaltama group has a small number of tourist huts but this accommodationisnotcurrentlyusedasitwasdamagedduringthe2012-2013conflict.Boatsandcanoesarethekeymodeoftransportusingtherivernetworkandcoast,especiallyduringfloodingandrainfall.

In the last ten years, interest has been shown bycommercialinvestorsinthepossibilityofdevelopingtheKon-derturanch.

6.2.4 The TerracesThe terraces are located on both sides of the Delta and are divided into Western and Eastern Zones. Theseareas are covered largely by acacia and euphorbiaspecieswhich, in theirnatural state, formdense, fairlyimpenetrable, thicket and scrub. The topography iselevated above the floodplain and although localizedpondingofrainwatermayoccurinthewetseason,thelandisnotsubjectedtoannualflooding.Openareasofgrasslandorbareearthoccurindepressionsanddryrivervalleys(lagas)wherewaterloggedsoilsexist.Thedensityofthethicket/bushlandisgovernedbylevelsofhumanand grazing activity. Clearance by burning or cuttingthickethascreatedlargeopenareasclosetosettlementswhichare thenkeptopenbyconstantgrazing.Duetothedrysandysoils,lowrainfallandsemi-aridnatureofthe vegetation, the principal land use is for livestockgrazing(cattle,sheepandgoats).

6.2.4.1 The Western TerraceThis zone extends the entire length of the delta fromthePrimateReservedowntothesaltpansatthecoast.It represents the largest continuous area of acacia/euphorbia thicketandscrub.At itsbroadestpoint, theterraceis8kilometreswide,butonaverageitextends

5-6kilometres(Nyunjaet al,2002).Thewesternterraceformspartofamuchlargercontinuoustractofthicketand bushland habitat extending all the way into theTsavo East National Park. TheMalindi-Garsen road isthereforeanartificialdivision,butitconvenientlymarksthelimitsoftheDeltaonitssouthwesternflank.

TheNorthern part of theWesternTerrace is sparselypopulatedwith no distinct villages but scattered bushhomes. Garsen and Idsowe are sizeable communitiesand Garsen in particular is growing fast. It is theadministrativecentrefortheTanaDeltahostingtheSub-countyHeadquarters (theCountyHeadquarters are atHola).Therearealsoschoolsandmedicalfacilities.Withthis status, Garsen is treated as a separate sub zoneforplanningpurposes.Thetownhasacommercialandtradingcentrewithbanksandmicro-financeinstitutionsanda livestockmarket. It isalsoan important locationfor receiving and marketing local agricultural producewhich is then sent by road toMombasa, Nairobi andother centres. Garsen has its own air strip and mostpartsareservicedwithelectricity.Anewpowerstationisunderconstruction(Pers.observation).

Thecentralpartof theWesternTerrace iswell servedwithaccessroadsandtracksandcontainsasubstantialnumber of permanent buildings including schools and private houses in Tarasaa and adjoining settlements.The southern part of the Western Terrace contains a significant number of newly emerging homesteadsbordering the main road. Throughout the Western Terrace the population is rising as migrants move infromotherpartsofKenya inanticipationof improvingeconomic opportunities brought about by thedevelopment of the LAPSSET corridor project. Ethnicgroups includePokomo,Giriama,Kikuyu,Kamba,Kisii,Luhya,Taita,Orma,andWardeiamongothers.Inmanycasesnewresidentsfinditdifficulttogetestablishedandturntoenvironmentallydestructiveformsoflivelihoodlikefirewoodcollectionandcharcoalburning(Odhengoet al, 2014a).

Large parts of the Western Terrace are occupied byranches which have been in existence for over thirtyyears, but have generally been left in an undevelopedstate.Allranchesareheldonleasesanddonothavetitledeeds. There are three intersecting wildlife corridorsthatpassacrosstheWesternTerracelinkingTsavoEastwiththeDelta.Thesecorridorsarealsousedfordrivinglivestock(Odhengoet al, 2014a).

6.2.4.2 The Eastern TerraceThe Eastern Terrace has the same characteristics asthe western section. It is, however, more extensivelydeveloped in the north, where TARDA has sought to


develop an irrigated rice scheme over the last thirtyyears.ThecurrentcultivatedareaextendsfromSailoniinthenorthernsection,wheretheintakefromtheRiverTanaislocated,downtothericemillandadministrativecentre at Gamba, south of the Witu road. Some tourism activitytakesplaceinthezonelinkedwiththeIshaqbinWetland Conservancy and the Tana River NationalPrimateReserve(Odhengoet al, 2014a).

Galole Horticulture Ltd is a private venture that isseeking to introduce cultivation in some parts of theterrace.Therearetwoprincipalcorridorsformigratoryanimals,bothwildanddomesticated.

6.2.5 Coastal BeltThecoastlineoftheTanaDeltastretches60kilometresfromtheoldmouthofRiverTanatothecurrentestuaryat Kipini (Odhengo et al,2014a).Overmanythousandsofyearsahighdunesystemhasdevelopedwhichseparatesthedeltafromthesea.Thedunesarehighlyporousandabsorb all rainwater without contributing significantlytothedelta.Threebreachesoccur intheduneswhereRiverTanaoritsformercoursesenterthesea.Maritime

grasses,scrubandopenareasofsandcovertheseawardfacesoftheduneswhiledenservegetationclothestheinlandslopesandthelowerareasarewellwooded.Thelongexpanseofsandyforeshore isabreedingareaforturtles (Odhengo et al, 2014a).

The northern section of theCoastal Belt contains thecoastal town of Kipini, which is the second largestsettlement in the Tana Delta. It operates as a smallfishing port andmarket centre for the southern delta.TherearealsoanumberoffarmingsettlementsclosetotheTana/LamuCountyboundary.

TheCentralpartoftheCoastalBelt,whichextendsfromKipinitoMtoTana,hasnopermanenthabitationapartfromasmalleco-tourismcampandtheDeltaDuneLodge.DeltaDunesLodge/campisprivatelyownedandlocatedinOziforestnearMtoTana.ThecompanycollaborateswiththelocalcommunitythroughtheLTDCTtopromoteecotourismandconservationoftheOziandCharaarea.Current levels of tourism are low due to fears oversecurityandthe low levelofaccommodationfacilities.The Mulikani Community Conservation Group based

Figure 6.7 Important Habitats


inOzihaveabandawithsimplevisitoraccommodationandalsohaveaboatthattakesvisitorstoviewhipposand crocodiles in the Mbililo/Sagema wetland. Thisventure has had only limited success to date due tolackofmarketing,advertisementandthecurrentsizeofaccommodationfacilities.

Managementof theCoastalBelt for conservation andwildlife is important for both marine, freshwater andforest species. The dunes and beaches form part of the areaadministeredbytheLowerTanaDeltaConservationTrust (LTDCT) under theOzi ForestManagementPlan(2010).Forestsanddunesprovideimportantecosystemservices, and support economic activities includingharvesting of wild fruits and the use of agro-forestryproducts such as coconut and mangoes.

The Coastal Belt has a number of fish landing sitesincludingOziandKipini,whichareoperatedbyBeachManagementUnits(BMUs)controlledbylocalfishermenwho use canoes and dhows to catch fish in shallowinshore waters. Some local fishermen have acquiredcoolers and buy ice from Malindi/Mombasa. Thissectionof coast isveryexposed to stormsand strongcurrents during themonsoon so deepwater fishing isnotcurrentlyfeasiblewiththerestrictedgearownedbylocalfishers.Theouterwatersare,however,fishedbyforeign industrial trawlers, which are known to causeconsiderabledamagetotheseabed(Hamerlynck,2012).

6.3 Zones with Special FeaturesInadditiontothetopographiczones,twosetsofspecialfeaturesaredefinedonseparatemaps(seePlans6.5and6.6). These features comprise: 1) Important habitats, and2)Settlements.

6.4 Potential Land Uses within the Planning ZonesIn order to assesswhat types of sustainable land usemightbepromotedwithintheTanaDeltatheplanningteamcarriedoutareviewofallpotentialdevelopmentactivities.The inclusion of an activity in the followinglist does not indicate that it would automatically bea suitable form of development. This could only bedeterminedafterthefullrangeofsocial,economicandenvironmental factors are taken into consideration aspartofthedetailedplanningofspecificdevelopments,asdiscussedinChapters8and9.

6.4.1 River Corridors• Fruitfarming(tropicalcitrus,mangoes,lemons,lime,

bananas, pineapple• Smallscaleirrigationusingpumps• Vegetableproduction• Wildfishcapture• Aquaculture• Riverineforestnaturalresourceharvesting• Beekeeping• Eco-tourism

6.4.2 Flood Plains• Livestockgrazing• WildFishcapture• Aquaculture• Fishprocessing• Large scale commercial farming - tropical citrus

fruits, mango, lime, bananas, pineapple, etc• OilandGasextraction• Tourism– bird watching, boat and canoe rides,

wildlife viewing e.g. hippo, buffalo, waterbuck,elephants onmigration to/fromOzi Forest. In thedry season wildlife migrate to areas of the rivermouthwiththeIndianocean.

• Large scale commercial farming using recessioncultivation combined with irrigation timed tocoincidewithtwodryseasonsannually–sugar,rice,maize,horticulturalcrops,greengrams,beans,cowpeas,watermelon.

• Extracting natural chemicals for pharmaceuticalindustryfromforestproducts.

• Mariculture (in coastal section) - crab farming,prawnsandshrimps.

• Timberexploitation–e.g.mangrovehashighvaluetimberforbuildingpurpose

Figure 6.8 Settlements


• Non-TimberForestProducts-Palmse.g.WildDatePalm (Phoenix reclinata) and East African DoumPalm (Hyphaenecompressa)used formakingmatsandotherhandicraftmaterials,especiallybywomenof Chara.

• Settlement-potentialforsignificantincreaseinlocalcommunityhousing

• Conservationandecosystemservicemanagement• National Park/Community Conservancy – for

conservation e.g. Kon-dertu ranch on migratoryrouteforwildlife.

6.4.3 Terraces• Largescalecommercial farming: sugar, rice,maize,

horticultural crops, tropical citrus fruits, mango,lime, green grams, beans, cow peas, pineapple,watermelon,bananas.

• Potential industrial development at selectedsites (e.g. Garsen/Tarasaa/Witu/Kipini) – meatprocessing, food processing, fish processing,warehousing, packaging,waterfiltration,medicinalplantdistillationandprocessing.

• Business development – the major interests ofthe communities who are positioning themselvesalong the road corridor where future economicdevelopmentwillgrowasa resultof theLAPSSETprogramme.

• Saltharvesting–southernareahaspotentialforthisthroughevaporation.

• Timber harvesting – at present being carried outillegally.

• Commercialfarming–ontheranches.Mostofthearea within the ranches had been identified forcommercial development (biofuels/jatropha) andhadbeenheldunderleasebyBedfordBiofuelsandotherfirms.

• Forestry - potential for CFAs for managing forestpocketsforagro-forestry,firewoodandbee-keeping

• Murram and building sand - outlying areas havevaluable deposits

• Ranches - have potential for both livestock andwildlife.

• Tourism - scope for tourism development andaccommodation.

6.4.4 Coastal Belt• Titaniumextractionfromcoastalsands• OilandGasexplorationbothlandbasedandoffshore• Extracting natural chemicals for pharmaceutical

industryfromforestproducts• Aquaculturefarminge.g.forprawnfarming• Significanttourismdevelopment• Timberexploitatione.g.mangrovehashighvaluefor

building and furniture.• Non-timber forest products -WildDatePalmand

EastAfricanDoumPalmusedformakingmatsandotherhandicraftmaterials.

• Residential development - with direct access toMalindi using the local Delta Dunes airstrip.

• Settlement-potentialforsignificantincreaseinlocalcommunityhousing

• NationalPark/CommunityConservancy• Offshore fishing– potential exists for industrial

fisherylandedandprocessedinlocalarea• Development of a local fisheries market–e.g. for

developmentofathrivingmarinefisherywithlinksbetweenlocalfishermenandmarketsinLamu

• Sports/recreational marine fisheries e.g. deep seafishingbytourists.

Table 6.1: Land Use Classes Found within Topographic Areas

Land use class Floodplain Terraces Coastal Belt Forest X X X Riverine forest X Dry thicket X X Mangrove and inter-‐tidal areas

X X

Dry farmland and scrub

X

Floodplain grassland X Wet farmland X Dunes X River corridor X Commercial farming X Urban areas X X Industrial zones X X Lakes and open water X X X


6.5 Land Use ClassesThedetailedmethodologysetoutinChapter15providesadefinitionof13landuseclasses,whicharedistributedacross different parts of the Delta as shown in Table6.1 and Plan 6.7. Some land use classes are found inall topographic areas, for example forests and thicket

and scrub,butothers likedunesare restricted toonlyone zone (Coastal Belt). The Planning Statements andPoliciesinthisLandUsePlanhavebeenwrittensothattheyapplytospecificlanduseclasses,cross-referencedwhererelevanttothetopographiczones.

Figure 6.9 Distribution of Land Classes


CHAPTER

7 SCENARIOS FOR THE STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT (SEA)

7.1 Introduction Aseriesofthreescenariosweredevelopedinordertoformthebasisforthelandusestrategywhichmaximisestheopportunitiesforsustainableeconomicdevelopmentwhileatthesametimeprotectingsocialwelfareandtheenvironment. The three scenarios are described in detail in Part 2 (Chapters 3-5) and in the separate StrategicEnvironmentalAssessment (SEA),which has examinedtheir performance (Odhengo et al, 2014a). This chapter simplyprovidesabriefsummaryoftheoutcome.

7.2 Scenario A – Continued Development of Traditional Livelihoods7.2.1 DescriptionScenarioAsetsoutapatternofdevelopmentintheDeltaareatotheyear2050,basedontheassumptionthatthemainelementsoftheeconomywillremainunalteredbyfocusingonsubsistenceagricultureandlivestockrearing,fishing,bee-keepingandnaturalresourceharvesting.ThepopulationoftheDeltaisexpectedtorisefromitspresent level of 102,000 people in 2010 to 175,000people in 2030 and 315,000 people in 2050. The main formofeconomicactivityatthepresenttimeislivestockrearing.Thereareapproximately220,000headofcattlein the Delta during thewet seasons and this numberincreasestoover700,000cattleduringthedryseason,when many animals are driven into the Delta fromsurrounding areas.

Asanentirely theoretical exercise, anassessmentwasmadeofthenumberofcattlethatwouldneedtobekeptthroughout the year in order to maintain the currentratiooflivestocktoindividualhouseholdsbasedontheforecastpopulationgrowthrates.Theanalysisindicatesthat therewould need to be 357,000 cattle by 2030and645,000 cattleby2050 in thewet aswell as thedryseasons.(ThepotentialeconomicvalueoflivestockwouldrisefromKES2billionin2010toKES4billionin2030andKES7billionin2050).Inreality,theSEAshowsthat,dependingonstockingdensities,anareabetween1.5 and 5 times the size of the Tana Deltawould beneededtogrowsufficientgrasstosustainthisnumberofanimals,andthattheDeltaiscompletelyunsuitedtokeepinglargenumbersoflivestockinthewetseasons.InpracticetheactualcarryingcapacityoftheDeltawillbereachedinlessthanfiveyears.

The second area of economic activity is subsistencefarming which is practised by more than half of the

households in the Tana Delta. The amount of food produced from the average of 0.6 ha (1.5 acres) is insufficient to feed the population and up to 40% ofhouseholds receive food security payments in yearswhen the harvest is poor. In order to increase foodproductionanadditional4,500haof landwouldneedto be converted from grassland or scrub to create permanent areasof cultivationby2030 followedby afurther8,500hectaresby2050.Theeconomicvalueoffoodcropsproducedisrelativelylowsincethereisverylittleoutputtocommercialmarkets.

Athirdareaofeconomicactivityandlivelihoodsisbasedaround the harvesting of natural resources for food,medicinal plants and building materials. At present more than90%ofthehousingstockisconstructedwithmud,grass, reeds, palm leaves and poles collected from the forestareas.Thesenaturalassetshaveveryconsiderablevalueifthebuildingmethodsarecomparedwithmodernconstruction using concrete bricks, mortar and zincsheeting.

7.2.2 AnalysisAsummaryoftheStrategicEnvironmentalAssessment(SEA) of ScenarioA, based on six principal evaluationcriteriaispresentedbelow.

Land Areas: The first conclusion reached in the SEAis that the continued increase in the number of cattlegrazed within the Delta is physically impossible. Themain areas of grassland are already overgrazed duringthe dry season and any increase in animal numberswouldleadtopermanentdestructionofthegrasslands.In consequence, itwouldbenecessary forpastoraliststotransfertheiractivitiestofarming-whichisalreadyhappeningtosomeextent.Theincreaseinlandrequiredforcultivationwoulddoubletheestimatesallowedforinrelationtoexistingfarmingcommunities.Conversionoflargeareasoflandtocropproductionwouldfurtherreduce the areas available for grazing, requiring areduction in livestock numbers below the existingthreshold.

Water Demand: Existing livelihood practices createa very low demand forwater, apart from the need tomaintaintheecologicalreserve.Theexpansionofbothlivestockrearingandsubsistencefarmingwouldnothaveanysignificanteffectonfuturewaterdemand,althoughaccesstowaterwouldbecomeaseriousconstraint.Employment and livelihoods: It is assumed that the


Figure 7.1 Sketch Layout of Scenario A

majorityofpeoplewouldbeactivelyemployedinfarmingand livestock rearing,with very few opportunities forthedevelopmentofnewenterprises. Social and Cultural Conditions:Standardsoflivingwouldremainextremelylowandthemajorityofthepopulationwouldremainbelowthepovertylevel.

Governance and Security: It is inevitable that existingtensions over access and control of land and waterresourceswould increase rapidly. Prospects for peaceandsecuritywouldbeverypoor.

Biodiversity:Extensionoflivestockrearing,subsistencefarmingandharvestingofnaturalresourceswouldhaveserious implications for some of the most importanthabitatsforanimalsandbirds,includingareasofRiverineForest,otherforests,mangroveandwetgrassland.TherewouldbeanoveralldeclineinbiodiversityandtheDeltawould lose its status as an international conservationsite(IBAandRamsarsite).

(Note: The area hatched in brown shows the minimum land requirement for grazing cattle in the dry seasons by 2030 assuming no other uses are permitted within the Plan Area)

7.3 Scenario B – A Commercial and Industrial Approach7.3.1 DescriptionScenario B explores the possibilities of developing acommerciallyorientedapproachtolanduseintheTanaDelta.Thesamegrowthratesintermsofpopulationaremaintained,assetoutinScenarioA,andtheassumptionismadethatnewformsofeconomicactivitywillprovideemploymentandincometoallowasubstantialnumberofhouseholdstomoveawayfromsubsistencefarmingandlivestockrearing.

A wide range of economic activities are considered,includingcommercialranchingofcattle,otherlivestockandwildlife,commercialandirrigatedfarming,productionof industrial crops like sugarcane, the developmentof factory processing,mining and tourism.Thismodelrequires conversion of large areas of natural habitat to farmland, infrastructure and industrial zones amongothers. The economic returns, assuming that all forms of


activityarecompatible,areverysubstantial,beingfourtimesgreaterthantheeconomicoutputfromScenarioA.An indicative layoutofmajor landuses is shown inFigure 7.2. It should be noted that a number of land uses areindirectcompetitionwitheachother–forexamplelivestockrearingandindustrialcropproduction.

7.3.2 AnalysisAnassessmentof ScenarioBbasedon the evaluationcriteriaispresentedbelow.

Land Areas: The amount of land needed for commercial purposescropfarmingby2030is20,750haincreasingto 41,500 ha by 2050. 25,000 hawill be needed forfatteningcommerciallivestockby2050.Ifimplemented,the ecological functions and traditional system of theindigenouspeoplewouldbeseriouslydisrupted.

Water Demand: A very large increase in demand forwaterwould arise. Up to 10 m3/sec (raising the totalwaterdemandto117%ofthecurrentmeandailyflow

in the River Tana of 60m3/sec) would be required by2030 and more than 20m3/sec(133%ofthemeandailyflow)wouldneedtobeabstractedby2050.Almostallofthisdemandwouldbegeneratedbyriceandsugarcaneplantations. This assumes that current flow levels inthe River Tana can bemaintained over this timespan.Desalination ofwater for irrigation is a possibility buthastechnicalandfinancialchallenges.

Employment and Livelihoods: 25,375 jobs wouldbe created, especially in relation to industrial cropproduction, mining, manufacturing and serviceindustries.However,thesegainswouldneedtobeoffsetagainstlossoflivelihoodsduetodisruptionoftraditionallivelihoodsystemsandtheresultingeconomicimpacts.Forexample, livelihoodsdependingonsellingmilkandlivestock products and subsistence farming could bemore sustainable than those that are dependent on lowwages of local peopleworking as cane cutters atminimumgovernmentwages.

Figure 7.2 Plan Showing Indicative Land Uses under Scenario B


Social and Cultural Conditions: The development of a skilled labourforceand improvedeconomicconditionscould lead to improvements of education, enhancedsocial amenities, and reduced fertility rates which inturn would translate to higher standards of living forsomepeople.However,apotentiallydivisivesplitwouldbecreatedbetweenthosewhowerebeneficiariesofaregular income frompaid employment and thosewhowere displaced from their existing land holdings. Thescaleofchangeneededtoaccommodatethenewlanduseswouldbeverydisruptive.

Governance and Security: Existing tensions over landandwater would be exacerbated and new challengeswouldarisefromtheneedforwidespreadresettlementof existing communities. The demands for water tosupportlargescaleirrigationwouldhaveseriousimpactson all other water users. It is highly unlikely that thepackage of development optionswould be acceptabletoanyofthecommunities(eitherpastoralistsorfarmers)and major conflict would result between prospectivedevelopersandtheresidentpopulation.

Biodiversity: Transformation of land and existinghabitatswithinthecoreareaoftheDeltatocommercialand industrial farming would destroy the ecosystemintegrityoftheTanaDeltaRamsarsite.

7.4 Scenario C – The Hybrid7.4.1 DescriptionScenario C starts to explore the options that existbetween an intensive commercial approach to futureland use in the Delta and a continuation of existinglivelihood practices. It takes as its main assumptionthe need to maintain a balance between agricultureand livestock rearing, with both uses being restrictedto an area of 65,000 hectares each (130,000 hectares in total) representing just under60%of the total landareaintheDelta.Thebalanceof95,000ha(40%)wouldbe retained to serve all other uses, including urban development,new industrialdevelopmentandprimarynatureconservationzones likeriverineforests,forests,mangrove and the coastal dunes and beaches. The areasoflandprovidingnaturalresourcesandecosystemserviceswouldbesubstantiallygreaterthanthe95,000ha,sincemuchofthelandusedforcattlegrazingwouldremainaswetgrasslandwithinthefloodplain.

This Scenario takes a more selective approach tothe range of crops to be grown, placing emphasis onintensive and extensive vegetable production, ricefarming, and fruit growing under both individual andcommunal/private partnership joint ventures. ThechoicereflectsthesuitabilityoftheDeltaforparticular

typesofcrop,knownmarketdemand,highlabourinputsandmodest to highwater demand.A substantial areaofriceproductionisallowedforontheexistingTARDAcroppingareaintheUpperDeltawithsmallerpatchesintheLowerDelta,giventhevalueofriceasastaplefoodandthescopetoenhanceyieldsthroughseedselectionandbetterfarmingpractice.

The Scenario also recognises the value of the Scenario B model in seeking to promote value- manufacturingoperations on industrial sites, to be created in fourcentreswithin theDelta. Themain focusof livestockrearingandfarmingactivitiesisshowninFigure 7.3.

7.4.2 AnalysisLand Areas: Under this Scenario there would be areduction in the overall area of land available forlivestock grazing (given that almost the entire Deltais currentlyopen to somedegreeof grazing).The lossofgrazingwouldbecompensated forby introducingacommercially oriented community ranching schemewhichwouldbedesignedtofattencattleforsixmonthsbefore slaughter and to process meat before shipment to localandexternalmarkets,thusraisinglivestockvaluesby more than 20%. Traditional open grazing wouldcontinueinsomeareasofthicketandscrubforperhaps5-10 years butwould be progressively phased out asmore efficient farming and livestock rearing practicesare introduced.

Areas under both subsistence farming and commercial agriculture would be increased significantly byconvertingareasofdrylandthicketandscrubandsmallareasofwetlandgrassland.Landwouldalsobesetasideforindustrialdevelopmentandurbanexpansion.

Water Demand:Thecarefulselectionofarangeofhighyieldingandhighvaluecropswhichhaveonlymodestwater demands (averaging in the range 400-700mmuptakeinthegrowingseason)resultsinanoveralllevelof demand of 4m3/sec (amounting to a total of 107%ofthecurrentTanaRivermeanflow)andiscomparableto the amount ofwater requiredunder the traditionallivelihoods approach in Scenario A.

Employment and Livelihoods: By 2030 about 66,350jobs would be created, increasing to 107,260 jobsby 2050, especially in relation to crop and livestockproduction, mining, infrastructure, manufacturingand service industries. The labour intensive nature of vegetableandfruitproduction,packagingandmarketingwouldcreatehigherlevelsofemploymentthanindustrialcroppingunderScenarioB,with amuch lower rateofdisplacement of existing livelihoods. In most cases,existing householdswould be able to transfer directly


Figure 7.3 Plan Showing the Main Focus of Activities under Scenario C


intothenewfarmingstructures.Inanyevent,alargeareaof landwouldcontinuetobesetasideforsubsistenceand household agriculture.

Social and Cultural Conditions: It is clear that all future landuse scenarioswithin theDeltawill involveconsiderable change and transformation, driven asmuch by population growth and internal changes insocietyasbyoutsidepressures.ThesechangeswillneedtobeplannedandhandledwithgreatcareandskillbythetwoCountyGovernmentsandbythecommunitiesthemselves.

Governance and Security: Scenario C is not immune from risk of social unrest but it offers amore gradualand more inclusive approach and provides all sectors of society with opportunities for livelihoods andgenerating real incomes.This is a hybrid between theoptions in Scenario A and B that entail tradeoffs andaccommodation of the various competing intereststherebyminimisingpotentialconflictoverresources.

Biodiversity: Scenario C safeguards all key habitatsand creates the opportunity for developing anecotourism sector and substantial income generationfrom nature conservation and ecosystem services.Future development could include extraction and sale

of medicinal and essential oils, gums, resins or othernature-basedproducts,togetherwiththeestablishmentofacaciaplantationsforsustainablecharcoalproduction.

7.5 Conclusions and RecommendationsThethreescenariosexaminedinthelanduseplanningstudies (see Part 2) and Strategic EnvironmentalAssessmentareallnotionalconceptswhichareintendedto serve only as points of reference in exploring howtheTanaDeltamight develop over the next 20 to 40years.Theexercisehashighlightedthefactthatchangeis inevitable and that there aremany complex factorswhich have a bearing on the ultimate outcomes. Ithas also shown clearly that some issues have greaterinfluencethanothersandthefutureavailabilityofwaterand land lie at the top of the list.

The Scenarios have informed the development of the LandUse Strategywhich appears in the nextChapterand confirms how the County Governments andNationalGovernmentAgencieswillworktogetherwithall communities in the Delta to formulate individualprojects anddevelop specific community- basedplansand initiatives. From the analysis of the three optionsand approach based on Scenario C (the hybrid) isrecommendedasitisanoptimalmixofscenarioAandB.


CHAPTER

8 LAND USE STRATEGY

8.1 Introduction Thischapter setsout thebroadstrategywhichwillbefollowed in allocating land for different uses and alsoensuringthatallformsofdevelopmentwithintheTanaDelta PlanArea are fully sustainable. The formulationof the land use strategy is based on Scenario C. TheStrategy forms only one component of the Plan andmust be read in conjunctionwith national and countygovernment policies, standards and guidelines.

Thelandusestrategyconsistsofthefollowingsections:• Methodologyanddevelopmentframework• HierarchyofPlanningStatements• OverarchingPlanningStatementsrelatingtoUpper

Delta• OverarchingPlanningStatementsrelatingtoLower

Delta• PlanningStatementsrelatingtolanduseclass• Planning Statements and Regulations relating to

economicactivity• Responsetoclimatechange

8.2 Methodology and Development FrameworkA number of principles have been used in developing theLandUsePlaninadditiontothosesetoutinguidingprinciples(seeChapter3).Thesearelistedbelow:

1. It is assumed that development in the Delta willconsist of a combination of traditional livelihoodsand commercial activities which meet sustainablecriteria;

2. Anticipatedgrowthinpopulationwillbemonitoredand managed by the County Governments withthe aimof encouraging a progressive reduction inthebirthratebeyond2020,andareductioninthenumbersofpeoplemigratingintotheDeltaarea;

3. All land and water use within the Delta will beregulated to ensure that the total annual demand forwaterdoesnotexceed theequivalentof60m3 persecond(thecurrentmeanflowoftheTanaRiver)or1.9billionm3intotalovertheyear;

4. Priorityforwaterandlandusewillbegiventolanduse and water abstraction approved activities,whicharepromotedandformallyregisteredbylocalcommunities with the Governments of Tana andLamuCountiesby31December,2015.

5. Government agency and private sector users willalso be required to submit details of their land holdingsandexistingwaterdemandsforregistrationandapprovalbytheCountyGovernmentswithinthesametimescalei.e.by31December2015.

6. All development will be carried out within theenvironmental limits/carrying capacity of theDelta in accordance with the Ramsar Conventionprinciplesofconservationandwise-use;

7. DevelopmentwillmaximiseefficiencyofuseoflandintheDelta;

8. After 1 January 2016 all proposals for new ormodifiedformsoflanduseandassociateddemandsforwaterwill need to be submittedwith a formalapplicationforplanningpermissiontotherelevantCountyGovernment,whowillassessthemeritsofthe proposal against the cumulative demand forwaterandavailablesurplusforextraction.

9. TheCountyGovernmentsmayrefuse,ordirectthatmodifications are made to the type of use, areaof land or amount ofwater to be used, based ontheir technicalassessmentof theproject’s impactson landandwateravailability, theeconomy, socialconditionsandtheenvironment;

10. A systematic process has been adopted foridentifying land and water areas which requirespecial attentionwithin the LandUse Plan.Theseincludegazettedareas,areasformallydesignatedinthePlanandthoseareasthataresubjecttoregularseasonalfloodingbywaterfromRiverTana.

8.2.1 Identifying Gazetted, Designated and Floodplain AreasTheinitialallocationoflandandwaterusesintheTanaDeltalandusestrategyhasbeenmadebyidentifying:1. All areas where there are clearly established

environmentaland/orsocial safeguardswhicharelegallygazetted.These include forest reservesandriver corridors.

2. Existingsettlementsanddesignatedcommunallandholdingsaroundthosesettlements.

3. The core area of the floodplain in the Upper andLowerDelta.

Chapter9ofthePlancontainsreferencestothespecificlawsand regulations affecting landusewithineachofthegazettedanddesignatedareas.


8.2.2 Development FrameworkFour critical elements determine the nature of thedevelopmentframework;theseare:• availabilityofwater,• availabilityofland,• development of urban areas, and• relationship between development sites and

gazettedanddesignatedareas.

8.2.2.1 Availability of WaterThe future of the Tana Delta and its communitiesdependsuponmaintainingminimumflowsintheRiverTana.DetailedhydrologicalstudiesarerequiredinordertodeterminethepreciserangewithinwhichriverflowsshouldfluctuatebuttheinitialassessmentsetoutintheSEAindicatesthatthemeanflowshouldnotfallbelow60m³persecondexceptinextremedroughtconditions(Odhengo et al, 2014a).

Examination of different scenarios for future land usesuggeststhatanincreaseindemandforwaterwithintheTana Delta of up to 10 m³ per second over and above the meanflowof60m³persecondcouldbeaccommodated,provided a regulating reservoir is built, in conjunctionwiththeproposedHighGrandFallsDam,toprovidethenecessarystorage.Thisregulatingreservoir isessentialto provide for future irrigation and water supply fordomestic and commercial purposes in the lower RiverTana basin and adjacent development associatedwithLamuport.

The purpose of the regulating reservoir is to capturewater releasedonadailybasisasa resultofelectricalpowergenerationfromtheHighGrandFallsDam,andtostorethiswaterforsubsequentuseinirrigation,publicwatersupplyandregulationoftheriverflow.Theroleof this reservoir is crucial since none of the land use development proposals set out in this Land Use Plancouldbedevelopedsuccessfullywithoutit.

As time passes, availability of water will become anincreasing constraint on all forms of development, so it is essential that land uses are promotedwithin theTana Delta which maximise water conservation anditswiseuse.Thishas led to theselectionof landusesthatexhibitthemostefficienttypesofwateruse.Theseincludeintensivevegetableproduction,usingsprayanddripfeedirrigationratherthanopenditchesandgravitysystems.Theonlyexceptiontothisprinciplerelatestothe growing of rice, which requires the formation oftemporary flooded paddy fields. Rice has a very highnutrientcontentandcanserveaveryusefulfunctioninfeedingtheDelta’spopulation.ItcanalsobegrownonlandwhichisnaturallyfloodedbytheRiverTana.

Large-scaleirrigationforindustrialcropslikesugarisnotpracticalwithintheTanaDeltaforanumberofreasons.The most important relates to the high annual demand forwater.ResearchconductedaspartofthisLandUsePlanpreparationhasshownthat20,000haoflandcanbe more effectively used with lower water intake forfoodproductionthanforanyotherformofcommercialcropping.Thesecondconsiderationconcernstheneedto ensure that the River Tana continues to migratenaturallyacrossthefloodplaininordertomaintaintheintegrityoftheTanaDeltaandsustainthefertilityandbiodiversityofthefloodplain.AnimportantprincipleinthisLandUsePlanisthatnoengineeringworksshouldbeundertakenwhichwouldprejudicethemaintenanceofthenaturalhydrologicalsystemandlarge-scaleirrigationprojectswouldconflictwiththisobjective.Athirdreasonfor resisting proposals for large scale mono-culturelike sugar cane is the inevitable need for widespreadresettlementofcommunitieswithupto25,000peopleinvolved.Finally,thecreationofmonoculturecroppingregimeswouldlargelydestroythespecialenvironmentalqualitiesof this internationally important conservationsite.

8.2.2.2 Availability of LandTheareaof theTanaDelta isfiniteand itscapacity toaccommodate land use change is constrained by theneed to meet the principal requirements of its twomain communities for livestock grazing and farming.Following careful assessment of the options, the landuse strategydetermines that anequal amountof landshouldberetainedforbothpurposes;thatis65,000hafor livestock and 65,000 ha for agriculture. These arenotexclusiveuses,andinbothlivestockandagriculturalareas other essential uses will continue includingmanagementofthefloodplainfornatureconservation,theproductionofnaturalresourcesandtourismactivity.The balance of 95,000 ha represents protected areas,urban development sites and infrastructure.

8.2.2.3 Residential and Commercial DevelopmentDuringthe16yearPlanperiodwhichextendsto2030,significant changes will occur within the Tana Delta.One of themost importantwill be the expansion andimprovement of both urban and rural areas in order to accommodateincreasesinpopulationandimprovementsinstandardsofliving.Thelocationoftownsandvillageswhich are selected for expansion must be carefullychosen in order to maximise the value and efficiencyof investment in newpublic andprivate buildings andinfrastructure. Inaddition,settlementswhicharetobeenlarged should be situated on higher ground to avoid therisksofflooding.


Settlement hierarchy: A hierarchy of settlements willbe developed, distinguishing between urban and ruralcommunities.IntermsofurbanlocationsGarsenwillbethe sub regional centre. Witu and Tarasaawillformlocalcentres,whileKipiniwillactasasubcentre.

A detailed urban development planwillbeproducedforeachofthefoursettlementsinthenextfiveyears.

Other rural settlements will be the subject of rural development plans.

8.2.2.4 Relationship between Development Sites and Gazetted and Designated AreasProposals fordevelopmentwithin theDeltacannotbeconsideredinisolation,giventheintricaterelationshipsbetweenhumanactivityandthenaturalenvironment.AchangeoflanduseinanyoneareawillhaveramificationsforadjacentzonesandthePlanemphasisestheneedtoconsider indirecteffectsarising fromanydevelopmentproposalontherestoftheTanaDeltaandparticularlysettlementsandgazettedanddesignatedareas.

8.3 Hierarchy of Planning StatementsPlanningStatementsidentifiedbynumberand‘quotationmarks’arecarefullydrafted,havethefullweightoflaw(seeBox8.1) and shall be reliedonby the authoritiesin decision-making and any legal procedures. Thepromotionofsustainabledevelopment,encouragementofinnovativeprojectsandcontrolandregulationoflandusewithin the PlanAreawill be guided by four inter-linked and over-arching sets of Planning Statements.ThefirsttwosetsofstatementsrelatespecificallytotheUpperandLowerDeltaanddealwithareabasedpolicies.Thethirdsetprovidesguidanceonallissuesrelatingto

individuallanduseclasses(e.g.thetypesofactivitythatmaybeencouragedwithinwetfarmland).Thefinalsetpickupthethemeofindividualeconomicactivitieswhichmaybepromotedinmorethanonegeographicareaandwithindifferentlanduseclasses(e.g.theintroductionofirrigated agriculture). In most cases more than one set of PlanningStatementswillberelevantwhenconsideringparticulardevelopmentoptions.

8.4 Overarching Planning Statements relating to Upper Delta (UD)Floodplain - Parts of the upper Tana Delta are of alowerlevelofimportanceforbiodiversitythanthecorefloodplainintheLowerDelta.Thisisduetothehistoricaldevelopment of the TARDA Integrated Rice Projectwhichhas largely transformeda former keyfloodplainarea intoamanagedagriculturalscheme.Neverthelessthe upper delta is critically important in providing alinkingcorridorbetweentheTanaRiverPrimateReserveandriverineforestswhichextendthroughouttheupperdeltaandconnecttosimilarhabitatsinthelowerdelta.Theupperdeltaalsoplaysanimportant,butlargelyun-researched,roleinstoringfloodwaterandthenreleasingthistothelowerdelta.

Statement UD1‘AnydevelopmentproposalwhichwouldreduceorvarytheamountofwaterreachingtheLowerDeltawillberefusedplanningpermission’.

Statement UD2‘Proposalsforreforestingsectionsoftheupper delta using natural and endemic specieswill beencouraged,especiallywherethiswillhelptoretainandstrengthenexistingrivernineforest.’

Planning Statements in this Land Use Plan have been drafted to give effect to Part X1 ‘County Planning’ of the County Governments Act, 2012. All references to planning in the said Act are relevant, but Planning Statements are specifically designed to satisfy the obligations on the County Councils for preparing ten year county GIS based database system spatial plans (S 110). These obligations include but are not limited to providing:a. a spatial depiction of the social and economic development programme of the county as articulated in the integrated county development plan,b. clear statements of how the spatial plan is linked to the regional, national and other county plans; and c. clear clarifications on the anticipated sustainable development outcomes of the spatial plan.

(2) the spatial plan, which shall be spatial development framework for the county, shall:-a. give effect to the principles and objects contained in sections 102 and 103;b. set out objectives that reflect the desired spatial form of the county taking into account the development programme of the county as articulated in its county integrated development plan;c. contain strategies and policies regarding the manner in which the objectives referred to in paragraph (b) are to be put into effect.

This is an abbreviated summary of key passages in the Act.

BOX 8.1 Legal Status of Planning Statements


The Terraces - The upper delta has also experienceda considerable amount of subsistence farming associatedwithgroupsofvillages locatedontheedgeofthefloodplainandadjacentterraces.Theupperdeltaterracesofferthepotentialforfurthercommunity-basedagricultural development, aswell as other livelihoods.Given the long term implications of climate change,whichwillincludeincreasedsalineintrusionintoexistingwetlandfarmingareasinthelowerdelta,prioritywillbegiventolocatingnewcommunal/PPPfarminginitiativesin the upper delta.

Statement UD3 ‘Strong emphasis will be placed onprojects leading to greater involvement of local communities in farming activity. Conversely, anyagricultural or industrial cropping proposals that reduce involvementoflocalcommunitiesandlocalemploymentwillbestronglyresisted’.

The development of an Integrated Water and LandManagementAction Plan for the upper delta is a keyrecommendation of the land use strategy. There ispotential for further renovation and improvement totheexistingirrigationschemewithparticularemphasisontheroleofindividualfarmersandcommunity-basedinitiatives.

8.5 Overarching Planning Statements relating to Lower DeltaFloodplain -Thelowerdeltacontainsthelargestareaofrelativelyundisturbedfloodplain,althoughkeyhabitatsand land uses within this area have been adverselyaffectedbychanges in river regimeandfloodpatternsandalsobyexcessivegrazing.Thesameareaisofcriticalimportance in maintaining traditional livelihoods andculture, including livestock rearing, natural resourceharvesting and fishing. For clarity, overarchingstatements have been assigned the abbreviation LDstandingforLandDevelopment.

Statement LD1 ‘Every effortwill be made to promoteexisting traditional uses of the floodplain. No landuse changeswill be permittedwhichwould lead to areductioninthevalueandimportanceoftheTanaDelta’sstatusasaninternationallyimportantWetland’.ThearealyingbetweenthetwomainchannelsofRiverTanaextendingfromthejunctionoftheMatombaBrookto the confluence upstream of Kipini forms the trueheart of the Delta and the maintenance, improvement andsustainableuseofthisareahasthehighestpriorityintermsoftheobjectivesinthelandusestrategy.Thisarea is largelyusedasadryseasongrazingrefugeandfloodrecessioncropfarming.

Statement LD2‘Thecentralpartofthefloodplainwillbemaintainedinperpetuityasagrazingareaforlivestockandwildlife’.

TheupperpartofthefloodplainislessexposedtosaltwaterintrusionthanthelowerpartsaroundHippoLake,andapartbelowGamba/Walkonhasbeendegradedbypreviousattemptstointroduceirrigationdevelopment.

Statement LD3 ‘Theareapreviouslyphysicallyaffectedby the failed TARDA Integrated Development projectwill be considered for future communal/PPP farminginitiatives, subject to detailed feasibility studies toconfirmthatthesoilconditionsandhydrologicalregimecanbemanagedsuccessfully’.

Fortheavoidanceofdoubt,StatementLD3refersonlytolandactuallydamagedbypreviousconstructionandlandgradingactivity.Itdoesnotapplytothebulkoflandformerly considered as part of a potential sugarcaneplantation.

River Corridor - Sections of the Lower Delta includethe river corridors and extensive areas of wetlandfarming, particularly to the south-west of the formermainchannelofRiverTana.Thiscorridoralsocontainsa dense network of settlementswith Pokomovillageslying to the south andOrma settlements lying on thenorthernbank.

Statement LD4‘Proposalsforreforestingsectionsofthelower delta using natural and endemic specieswill beencouraged,especiallywherethiswillhelptoretainandstrengthenexistingriverineforest’.

Statement LD5‘ParticularattentionwillbegiventothepreparationofruraldevelopmentplansforallofthekeyvillagesintheLowerDeltainordertohelpresolveareasofuncertaintyoverlandrights,accesstowaterandlandmanagement’.

The Terraces-Thelandonbothsidesofthefloodplainrises to form terraces, which are increasingly beingdeveloped for subsistence agriculture by inwardmigrants. Much of this development is of a random nature,whichneedstobecontrolledinordertooptimisefuture landuse.Mostoftheterraceareaswillneedtobeconverted tootheruses, includingdryland farming,smallareasofgrazingandsettlementgrowth,includinglocationofindustrialsites.

Statement LD6‘Afulllandusesurveywillbeundertakenfor the terraces to inform detailed planning and development in these areas. Following completion ofthe survey an actionplanwill beprepared to steer allfuturedevelopmentintheseareas’.


8.6 Planning Statements Relating to Land Use ClassPlan 6.7 in Chapter 6 shows the distribution of landuse classes throughout the Delta. Each land use class is subjecttoitsownseriesofplanningstatements.

8.6.1 Floodplain Grassland (FG)Existing areas of floodplain grassland formone of themost important resources of the Tana Delta in terms of natureconservationandlivelihoods. Statement FG1 ‘Theonlyacceptableusesoftheseareaswill consist of livestock grazing, nature conservation,eco-tourism, natural resource harvesting and seasonalagricultureinsomespeciallydesignatedareas’.

Statement FG2 ‘There will be a strong presumptionagainst large scale conversion of floodplain grasslandtootheruses,exceptintheareabetweentheMatombaBrookandGarsen-WituRoad’.

Figure 8.1 Land Use Proposals in the Terraces

Statement FG3 ‘There will be a strong presumptionagainst granting approval for any development whichadverselyaffectsanyofthespecialfeaturesfoundwithinthefloodplainzones’.

8.6.2 Wetland Farming Areas (WF)A full surveywill be conducted in theareas zoned forwetland farming during the first 5 years of the TanaDeltaLandUsePlan,andtheboundarieswillbesubjecttorevisionthereafter.Thesurveywillconfirmtheextentofalllandthatiscurrentlybeingfarmedbycommunitiesand individuals.

Statement WF1‘Alltypesofcultivationmaybepracticedwithin wetland farming areas where these rely ongroundwater or natural rainfall as the source ofwatersupply,providingthatnomorethan500haismanagedasasingleentitybyanindividual,companyorcorporatebodywithoutpriorapprovaloftheCountyGovernment’.Thereisaverywidevarietyofcropswhicharesuitablefor growing within the wetland farming areas, as


identified in Box 8.1, and the county governmentagricultural extension officers will assist communitiesandindividualstodevelopthepotentialofthesefarmingareastothemaximumextentpossible.

Due to the constraints on availability of water thedevelopmentofirrigationwithinwetlandfarmingareas(andother farmingareas in theDelta)willbecarefullyregulatedbyWRMAandtheCountyauthorities.

Statement WF2‘AllfarmerswishingtoextractwaterfromtheRiverTanausingmechanicalpumpsarerequiredtoobtain a licence from (WRMA/County) on an annualbasis’.

Therewillbenorestrictiononthegrantingof licencesformobilepumpsproviding that thecumulativeeffectofwaterabstractiondoesnot impactadverselyonthecommunities and the environment of the Tana Delta.Proposalsfortheuseoffixedmechanicalpumpswillbeassessedontheirmerits(seesection8.7.2onirrigation).

Figure 8.2 Planning Statements in the Upper and Lower Delta

8.6.3 Dryland farming areas (DF)The dryland farming areas of the Delta are foundprincipally within the buffer zone and on the raisedterracesabovethefloodplain.Thereisnocleardistinctionon the ground between areaswhich are identified fordrylandfarmingandthosewhichareintendedtoremainas thicket and scrub. However it is important thatsomeareasofthicketandscrubareretainedfornatureconservationpurposesandtoactasmigratorycorridorsforwildlife.

At present, development within the dryland farmingareas is taking place on a random basiswith minimalcontrol over the allocation of land. Individual familiesstaketheirclaimtoanareaoflandbyclearingthebushandcultivatingsmallholdings.Thisrandomdevelopmentthreatensthelong-termvalueofthelandformanagedagriculturalcultivationwhichisdesignedspecificallytoincreaseproductionandfeedthewidercommunity.


Vegetables/Cereals:RiceMaizeSugar cane (for food use)Pigeon PeasGreen GramsTomatoesPeppersChilliesLettuceCucumbers

Fruits:MangoesBananasOrangesLemonsLimesPassion fruitMelonsWatermelons

BOX 8.2 Range of Crops suitable for Cultivation in the Tana Delta Wetland Farming Areas

Sinceallofthefloodplainisalreadyallocatedeitherforgrazingandnatureconservationorforwetlandfarming,futureexpansionofagriculturewillneed to takeplacewithinthedrylandfarmingareas.

Statement DF1 ‘TheCountyGovernmentswill activelysupport proposals for agricultural development that are situated in the most promising locations lying withinor adjacent to lagas anddepressionswherewater canbe stored in thewet season either in natural lakes orthroughconstructionofwaterretentiondams’.

Therearealsosomelimitedareasoflevelgroundwhereitwould be possible to introduce irrigation subject totechnicalfeasibilitystudiesbeingcarriedouttoensurewateravailabilityandthecapacitytoreturnsurplusrun-offdirectlytotheRiverTana.

Farmingwithinthedrylandareasisrestrictedatpresentto rain fed croppingwith a maximum of two crops ayear.Quick growingvarieties ofmaize andvegetablesare required because cropsmay fail if their growth isdelayedintothedryseasons.

8.6.4 River Corridors (RC)The banks of the River Tana have always been thepreferred location for developing settlements andcultivating land. This is because the river banks areraised through the deposition of silt during periodsof flooding to create natural levees. The raised bankshave historically provided excellent areas for growingfruittreeslikemangoesandbananas.Inaddition,whilesettlementsareaffectedbyflooding,thewaterremainsshallowasitflowsfromtheriverintothelowerwetlandsofthefloodplain.ExistingpoliciesarestrengthenedinthisLandUsePlanbyextending theprotectedzonealongRiver corridorsto 500 m.

Statement RC1‘Alldevelopment(otherthanconstructionofaprivatedwellinghouseanduseoflandasagarden

for home food production) within the River corridorswill be subject to approval by the respective countygovernments’.

Asurveywillbeundertakenalongallriverbanksformingpart of the two main channels of the River Tana toidentifylocationsusedbylivestockforaccesstodrinkingwater. Appropriate locations will be agreed betweenpastoralistsandfarmingcommunitiesandthesewillbedesignatedaslivestockdrinkingareas.

Statement RC2 ‘Following survey and designation ofappropriatesectionsofriverbank,livestockherderswillberestrictedtousingonlyapprovedwateringareas’.

The diversion of 60% of the RiverTana flow into theMatomba Brook has leftmany villages and traditionalwetland farming areas along the former course of themain river, without adequate water. However, anyattempt to re-engineer the river and direct the flowtotheformermainchannel is likelytobethwartedbyfuturenaturalchangesinrivercourse.Consequentlyitisrecommendedthatnewcommunaland/orPPPfarminginitiatives should be directed to those parts of theDeltawhereconditionsaremoststable.These includetheterracesandhigherpartsofthefloodplain,closetoIdsoweBridge.

8.6.5 Riverine Forests (RF)Riverine forests are amongst the most sensitive andimportant habitats within the Tana Delta. Endemicspecies like theTana River RedColobus and theTanaRiverMangabeyarefoundonlywithinasmallnumberofexistingforestpatcheswhichalsohostotherthreatenedspeciesofplantsandanimals.Whilecollectionoffruits,herbs, medicinal plants and other non-timber forestproducts is acceptable on a modest scale, extensiveharvestingofpalmleaves,timber,grassandreedscouldultimatelydestroythesehabitats.Theforestsalsoassistinmaintainingtheflowoftherivertowardsaspecifieddirection without diverting its course. In consultation


withlocalcommunities,managementplanswillthereforebepreparedbytheKenyaForestService,KenyaWildlifeServiceandotherconservationagenciesforeachoftheindividual forests and arrangements will be made forthesesitestobesurveyedandmonitoredonaregularbasis.

Statement RF1 ‘The County Governments andGovernmentconservationagencieswillactivelysupportmeasuresandproposals formanagingexisting riverineforestsandanyplansforextendingforestareasbynewplantingofindigenousspecies.’

8.6.6 Dry Forests (DF)Within the Tana Delta there are a number of other forests which have high conservation value aswell as timberand natural resource values. Some of these forests are gazettedwhileothersaremanagedbycommunitiesforconservation.

Statement DF1 ‘All forestswithin theTanaDeltawillbe surveyed and positive plans and proposals will bedeveloped by the County governments, Kenya ForestService and local communities for their enhancementandincreasednatureconservationvalue’.

8.6.7 Mangrove (M)Mangrove forest is restricted to the coastal zone andthe intertidal zone. The dense network of trunks androots provides resistance to wave action and stormsurges from the sea thus reducing the impact of coastal flooding and erosion.Mangrove also provides nurseryareasforshellfish,shrimpsandprawnsandsomemarinefishspeciestogetherwithroostingandfeedingareasforbirds and insects.

Statement M1 ‘Under the Tana Delta Land Use Plan,mangrove forests will be fully protected againstinappropriatedevelopment.Programmesforsustainableuse of natural resources will be developed betweenthe County authorities, Kenya Forest Service andindividual communities and conservation trusts.Theseprogrammes will determine the scope for sustainableharvestingofpolesandotherresourcesforusebylocalcommunities’.

8.6.8 Dunes and Coastal BeachesThe coastal beaches and dunes are important for fishlanding, fresh water storage, nature conservation(includingturtlenesting)andtourism.

Statement DC1 ‘Dunes and Beacheswill be protectedfrom inappropriate development which could damagetheirspecialenvironmentalqualitiesandtheirlong-termpotentialforecotourismdevelopment’.

Statement DC2 ‘All forms of development in the coastal zonewillrequireafullenvironmentalimpactassessmentbeforebeingconsideredforapproval’.

Notwithstanding restrictions on inappropriatedevelopment, the coastline offers amajor opportunityforcreatingasingletourismsiteofexceptionalqualityand built to the highest international standards. AnydeveloperwishingtoexplorethepossibilityofinvestinginsuchanenterpriseshouldcontacttherelevantCountyauthority for detailed discussions before commencingwithanydetailedfeasibilitystudies.

8.6.9 Commercial Farming Areas (CF)The existing area of the TARDA-managed Tana DeltaIntegrated Project (TDIP) should be brought intofull production by allocating the land to individualcommunityfarmingenterprises.Thisareashouldalsobeextended to include the land formerly affectedby thefailedengineeringworksbetweentheGarsen-WituroadandtheMatombaBrook.

Statement CF1 ‘All proposals for commercial farming, including land within the TDIP, shall be subject tocompletion of full technical and environmentalassessments before applications for development areconsideredbytherespectiveCountyGovernment’.

8.6.10 Settlement AreasThefourmainurbanareaswillbesubjecttoadetailedsurvey to identify all existing buildings, vacant areasandthelayoutofessentialservicesincludingroadsandelectricity.

Statement S1‘AllexistingplansforfuturegrowthwithintheurbanareaswillbereviewedinthelightoftheLandUsePlanandSEAfindingsandwillbeincorporatedintonewUrbanDevelopmentplans, tobeproducedwithinthefirstfiveyearprogrammeoftheLUP’.

Statement S2‘RuralDevelopmentPlanswillbepreparedwithinthefirstfiveyearsoftheLUPforallpermanentrural villages (See Figure 8.1). A permanent village is one whichhasbeeninexistenceformorethantenyearsandisnotaffectedbyannualfloodingfromtheRiverTana’.

8.6.11 Industrial Zones (IZ)Statement IZ1 ‘The land required for industrial andcommercial development over the full period of the plan (to 2050) will be identified, demarcated and formallydesignatedinseparateIndustrialAreaActionPlans’.


Figure 8.3 Illustration of Typical Rural Development Plan

Source: Tana River Delta Land Use Plan, 2014


8.7 Planning Statements and Regulations Relating to Economic ActivityThelandusestrategyprovidesaflexibleapproachtolandallocationwhichwillbereviewedatfive-yearintervals.Theaimistoofferguidancetoallprospectivedevelopersso that they can create their own opportunitieswhilerespecting the wider needs of communities and theenvironment.

8.7.1 Livestock Management (LM)Statement LM1 ‘All grassland, forest and scrub lyingoutside protected areas but within the designatedfloodplain will be managed to meet the combinedobjectivesofnatureconservationandlivestockgrazing’.

Livestockgrazingandconservationarefullycompatibleproviding stocking levels are regulated to preventovergrazing. It is inevitable that some overgrazingwilloccurinextremedroughtsbutthisshouldberestrictedto as short a period as possible.

Statement LM2 ‘Inordertoachievebettercontrolovergrazing pressure, all livestock ownerswill be requiredtoregistertheirnameandentitlementtograzeanimalswithintheDeltawiththeCountylivestockofficeby31December2015.Registeredownerswill beobliged tocompleteanannualstatementconfirmingthenumberofanimalstobegrazedwithinthePlanArea’.

Statement LM3 ‘TheCountyGovernment(s)willestablisha livestock committeewith specific responsibilities forsettingupaGrazingManagementPlanandintroducingproposalsforidentifyingandlicensinglivestocksothatnumbersmayberegulatedinfuture’.

The land use strategy specifies that no more than600,000headofcattlearetobegrazedwithintheTanaDeltaPlanareaatanytimeandthatthisfigureisreducedto200,000headduringthewetseasons.

As part of the overall management plan for the Tana Delta Ramsar site, each part of the floodplainwill beinspected and an assessment will be carried out todetermine appropriate stocking levels during the wetand dry seasons.This assessmentwill bemade jointlyby experts from the relevant conservation bodies andbyrepresentativesofthelivestockowners,grazersandaffectedcommunities.

Statement LM4 ‘Awardeningsystemwillbedeveloped,as part of the Tana Delta development programme, using localcommunitymemberstomonitortheeffectivenessofthelivestockgrazingcontrols’.

Insomepartsofthedesignatedfloodplain,theremaybeareasoflandwhicharesuitableforrecessionagriculturefollowingseasonalflooding.

Statement LM5 ‘Temporary use of such areas may begranted by the County governments for rain fed andrecession farming on an annual basis providing that no permanent structures or mechanised cultivation isintroduced. Permission to use parts of the floodplainforfarmingpurposesmaybewithdrawnatsixmonths’notice;andtemporaryauthorisationforsuchusedoesnotimplyanylong-termrightforsuchuse’.

8.7.2 Agriculture (A)Small-scaleirrigationisseenasanessentialdevelopmentwithintheTanaDeltainordertoprovidethenecessarywatertosupportintensivevegetableandfruitproduction.However the opportunities for its development areseriouslyrestrictedbothbytechnicalconsiderationsandtheneedtomaintainthewaterbalanceandensurethatsufficient suppliesareavailable tomeetall communityandconservationneeds.

Technical and scientific studies associated with thedevelopmentofwaterresourcesintheRiverTanabasinhave concluded that the opportunities for substantialirrigationwithintheTanaDeltaarevery limited.Theseconclusions reflect the fact that theRiverTanahasonmanyoccasionsbreacheditsownbanksanddestroyedfloodembankments, canals and leveesbuilt aspartoflarge-scale irrigation schemes. In the light of thesestudiesitisclearthatanyirrigationdevelopmentintheTanaDeltawillneedtobeplannedwiththeutmostcare.The essential requirements for a successful irrigationscheme are:• a safe and secure abstraction point on the main

river (aweir or barrage)which can be overtoppedinmajorfloodsandisnotvulnerabletochangesinRivercourseorsiltation,

• a gravity based canal system which can conveywaterfromtheintaketotheintendedfarmingarea,

• anirrigationsitewhichcanbelaidoutwithminimalsoildisturbanceorre-gradingtoacceptasprinklerordripfeedwaterdistributionsystem,and,

• facilitiesforredirectingallsurplusabstractionwaterbacktothemainriverchannelafteruse.

Studiesundertakentodatesuggestthattheconditionsforagravity–fedsystemcouldbestbemetintheupperTana Delta close to the southern boundary of theprimate reserve and upstream of the existing TARDAricefarm.Thereisalsothepossibilityofredesigningandconstructing a small irrigation scheme to the east oftheGarsen-WituroadandbelowtheGambaofficesite.Elsewhere, opportunities may exist for small pumpedirrigationschemesonareasoflessthan100ha.


Statement A1 ‘All proposals for the development of irrigation within the Tana Delta will be subject toformal planning applications and the preparation ofenvironmental and social impact studies togetherwithfulltechnical,feasibilityandcostbenefitstudies’.

8.7.3 Industrial and Commercial Development (ICD)All industrial and commercial development proposals within theTanaDeltawillbe submittedandevaluatedagainstformalcriteriatoensurethattheymeetnationalstandards for pollution control and health and safetystandards. Individual factories and processing plants (suchasabattoirsandfoodprocessing)whicharelocatedon industrial estateswill benefit from theprovisionofa common sewer system and waste water treatmentfacilityinordertoensurethatwaterreturnedtotheTanaDeltaisofsufficientlyhighquality(althoughpreliminarytreatment of waste will be the responsibility of theindividual operator).

Statement ICD1 ‘TheCountyGovernmentswillactivelyencourage industrial development proposals if these are locatedwithintheplanned industrialestatesandmeetnationalstandardsforpollutioncontrolandhealthandsafety’.

8.8 Climate Change (CC)The Tana Delta is one of the areas on the East African coast,whichhasbeen identifiedasbeingunderthreatfromrisingsealevel.Currentprojectionssuggestthatsealevelcouldincreasebybetweenhalfandonemetreby2100.TherearealreadysomesignsthatcoastalerosionisincreasingatthemouthoftheRiverTanaandalongthebeaches aroundKipini. In addition, seawater incursionisincreasingthesalinityofgroundwaterinpartsofthelowerfloodplain.Anychangeswillbegradual,andwillprovideplentyoftimeforadaptation.However,itwillbenecessarytostartplanningoverthenext5to10yearstomeetanysucheventualities.Ifsealevelweretorisebyametreinthenext80years,muchofthelowerfloodplainwould become saltmarsh and mangrove swamp withlarge expanses of open brackishwater. Such changeswould significantly reduce the scope for agriculturalactivitybutcouldopenupopportunitiesformariculture(prawn farming). The natural environment would beradicallyalteredfromapredominantlyfreshwatertoanintertidalecosystembutthiscould increasethenatureconservation value and add to the Delta’s existingbiodiversityandtourismpotential.

Statement CC1 ‘All development proposals will becarefully examined to ensure that they comply withnationalpoliciesonclimatechangeadaptationandcanbe constructed without adding to safety risks to thelocalpopulation’.


CHAPTER

9 GUIDELINES FOR DEVELOPERS, THE PUBLIC AND DECISION-MAKERS

9.1 IntroductionThis chapter introduces the mechanisms that will beused by key decision-makers to determinewhich landuseoptionsshouldbepositivelyencouragedwithintheTanaDeltaandunderwhatcircumstancescertaintypesofactivityshouldbeactivelydiscouragedintheinterestsofdeliveringtheoverallobjectivesoftheLandUsePlan.Themainprocessfordecision-makingistheuseof

‘PlanningStatements’,whichrepresenttheofficialpolicyof government at both national and county levels.FlowchartsoralgorithmswillsupporttheseforsomeofthecommonertypesofdevelopmentproposalthatmaybeanticipatedintheTanaDelta.Inaddition,anumberofguidelineswillbewrittentohelpinformdecision-makersand the public about what constitutes sustainabledevelopment.

9.2 The Role of DevelopersAll entrepreneurs, whether from the public or privatesector,haveamajorroletoplayinthedevelopmentoftheTanaDelta. However, progresswill only bemade,if innovative proposals are brought forward to createneweconomicactivity, theenhancementofsocialandcommunitywelfareandprotectionoftheenvironment.In order to ensure that these standards are achieved, developersareencouragedtoholdfulldiscussionswiththe county governments and with local communitiesbeforesubmittinganyformalproposals.

Developersareencouragedtostudythedetails in thisplanand,inparticularthesectiononlandusestrategy,in order to align their proposalswith the overall planobjectives. Depending upon the complexity and scaleof the planned undertaking, developers should followthe following guidelines when submitting a planningapplication.

9.2.1 Statement of CaseAclearstatementmustbepreparedsettingoutthegoalsandobjectivesbehindthedevelopment.Thestatementshouldidentifytheindividualsandpartiesprovidingtheunderlyinginvestmentcapitalandgiveacleardescriptionof the development itself. The area of land to be occupied shouldbeclearlydefinedand,ifthedeveloperisnottheowner,aformalcertificatewillneedtobecompletedandsignedbyrightfulowners,confirmingtheiragreementtotheproposals.Alternatively,ifthecertificatecannotbecompletedforanyreason,alettershouldbesubmitted.

The applicant should explain how the development isintended to support the policies of this plan and the steps thatwill be taken to ensure conformitywith allpolicystatements,guidelinesandotherrequirementsoftheTanaDeltaLandUsePlan.

9.2.2 Site PlansApplicantsshouldsubmitasitePlantothescaleofnotmorethan1:25,000identifyingthepreciseareacoveredbythedevelopmentproposal.WherebuildingsorotherstructuresareproposedthescaleofthePlanshallbenotless than 1:2,500.

9.2.3 Environmental and Social Impact AssessmentNotwithstanding the rules for EIA defined by theNational EnvironmentalManagementAgency (NEMA),any development proposal which would result in anyofthefollowing interventionsshallbesubjecttoafullEnvironmental and Social Impact Assessment (ESIA):1. Useofmorethan2millioncubicmetresofwatera

year,2. Encroachmentonanyspecial feature (habitatsand

settlementsidentifiedinPlans6.5and6.6),3. Displacement of more than 5 homesteads,4. Developmentcreatingmorethan100fulltimejobs5. Development displacing more than 100 existing

livelihoods.

9.3 The Public and Local CommunitiesAdoption of the Constitution and the formation ofCounty governments provides the opportunity toovercome all of the historic failures of the planning system by introducing fair, open and transparentprocedures. Public consultationwill lie at the heart ofthenewprocess.

9.3.1 Public ConsultationAll applications for development will be listed andpublishedinnationalnewspaperswithdetailsofwherethe proposals can be inspected. Any developmentproposalswhicharepotentiallyinconflictwiththeLandUsePlanwillbereferredbytheCountyGovernmenttothevillageeldersinallcommunitiesthatarepotentiallyaffected.Nodecisionsonsuchapplicationswillbetakenuntiltheviewsofallinterestedcommunitieshavebeenreceived and taken into consideration by the CountyPlanningDevelopmentCommittee.


9.4 The Authorities and Decision-makers9.4.1 Formal Review of Planning ApplicationsAlldevelopmentproposalsforlandfallingwithintheTanaDeltaoritsbufferzonewillbesubjecttoreviewbytheappropriateCountyPlanningDevelopmentCommitteeand by other licensing authorities,where appropriate,suchasNEMAor theKenyaWildlifeServiceorKenyaForestService.

Everyplanningapplicationwillbescrutinisedbyofficersof the relevantCountyGovernment and/orMinistries,using the Planning Statements, and flowcharts andguidelines to be set out in a development control scheme to be introduced under the Land Use Plan.The officers will prepare a report for considerationby members of the County Planning DevelopmentCommittee (CPDC),whichdescribes thenatureof theproposed development, lists its performance against the PlanningStatementsandguidelines,andconcludeswitharecommendationtoapprove,approvewithconditionsor reject the application.The officers’ reportwill notewhetheranytrans-boundary issuesare involvedwhichwouldrequirereferral,commentordirectinvolvementinthedecision-makingprocessbyaneighbouringCountyGovernment.

9.4.2 Decisions by the County Planning Development CommitteeApplicationswillbeconsideredbytheCPDCinthelightof:• all public comments received,• theviewsofotherrelevantauthorities,• TheanalysisperformedbytheCouncil’sofficers.

MembersoftheCPDCwillreachamajoritydecisionontheapplicationonthebasisofthefactspresented.AnymemberoftheCPDCwhohasapersonalinterestintheoutcomeoftheapplicationwilldeclarethisinterestandwithdrawfromthedecision-makingprocess.

9.4.3 Planning StatementsThe Planning Statements which appear in this LandUsePlanhavebeencarefullydraftedand reviewedbytheleadministriesatNationallevelandbytheCountyAdministrations for Tana County and Lamu Counties.A Planning Statement is not open to amendment ormodification(withoutaformalreviewandendorsementinaccordancewiththePlanningandCountyGovernmentsActs)anditsquotationinaformaldecisionoftheCountyPlanningDevelopmentCommitteeshallhavetheforceoflaw.

Eachstatementconstitutesa‘formalpolicy’orstatementofintent.Decisionsonwhetheraparticularapplicationfor development will be approved, approved subjectto conditions or rejectedwill be made in the light ofhow the proposal ‘performs against the full range ofstatements listed for the planning zoneswithinwhichthe developmentwould take place’. (The full range ofstatements covers zone or area-based, land use andeconomicactivities).

Ifanapplicationfails tomeettherequirementsofoneormore statements thiswill not automatically lead toits refusal, providing appropriate mitigation measurescan be introduced in accordancewith formal planningconditions.However, themoreanapplicationconflictswithPlanningStatements themore likely it is that theCPDCwilldecidetorejecttheproposal.

9.4.4 Explanatory TextEachPlanningStatementissupportedbyanexplanatorytext which describes the reasons for introducingthe Planning Statement and provides references toadditionalinformationwhereappropriate.

9.4.5 Forms of Planning ApprovalApprovalofanapplicationfordevelopmentmaybegivenunconditionallyorsubjecttospecialconditionsthataredesignedtoreduceanyareasofadverseenvironmentalimpact.Examplesofstandardconditionswillbesetoutinthe‘DevelopmentControlScheme’.


CHAPTER

10 GOVERNANCE

10.1 IntroductionThis chapter discusses the respective roles of theNational Government and County Governments inimplementing theTanaRiverDeltaLandUsePlanandoutlines themeasures thatwill need tobe introducedin order to deliver all of the plan objectives. Thecircumstances surrounding devolution of powers fromNational toCountyGovernments are particularly fluidatthetimeofpreparingthisplanandthereisscopefordifferent interpretations to be placed on the relevantlaws and regulations since these are not always fullyalignedwith each other. The statementsmade in thischapterwillbeopentoreviewastheplanisconsideredandadoptedatbothnationalandcountylevel.

10.2 The Role of National GovernmentResponsibilityforintegratedcountydevelopmentplansand county spatial planning is a devolved functionunder the County Government Act, 2012. However,certain plans may be produced at national level bythe Director of Physical Planning under the PhysicalPlanning Act, Revised Edition, 2012. Two categoriesofnationally formulatedplansarerelevanttotheTanaDelta.Thefirstisthepowertocreate‘RegionalPhysicalDevelopmentPlans’(PartIVSectionsA16-17)andthesecondisthepowertodeclare‘SpecialPlanningAreas’(PartIV,Section23).ItwillbeimportantfortherelevantnationalministriestoconsiderandendorsetheplanningstatementsoutlinedinChapter9(seesection9.4.3).

In addition to physical planning, the NationalGovernment continues to administer policies andregulations made under a wide range of legislationwhere national coordination of resources like water,transport and environment is important. In consequence, bodiesliketheKenyaForestServiceandKenyaWildlifeServicewillcontinuetobecloselyinvolvedinprotectinggazetted forests, wetlands, endangered species andother environmental features within the Tana Delta.Similarly, the National Land Commission will assumethe principal role in adjudicating on the ownership ofdisputed land holdings. The Ministry of Environment,WaterandNaturalResourceswilloverseefuturewateruseanddevelopmentthroughoutthecountry,whiletheMinistryofAgriculturewilldirectkeydecisionsonfutureirrigationschemes.

The Strategic Environmental Assessment for the Tana Delta has shown that the long term prosperity of the

entire North East region will be dependant uponcarefulrationalisationoflandusesthroughouttheTanaRiver Basin and adjacent systems like the River Athicatchment.CompetingdemandsandinterestswillneedtobeassessedbyGovernmentandfirmpoliciesputinplace to cover irrigation development, industrial andresidentialgrowth,transport,tourismandawiderangeofothereconomicactivitiesthroughouttheregion.

Inordertoachievethenecessary levelofcoordinationatnationallevelitisrecommendedthatthegovernmentshouldestablishaDeltasBoard.ThisshouldbeofficiallygazettedastheorganisationwiththenecessarypowerstooverseepoliciesinspecialareasliketheTanaDelta.

The Deltas Board will be supported by the Inter-Ministerial Technical Committee (IMTC) on theSustainable Management of Kenya Deltas. The IMTCincludes representatives of all of the main ministries.ThisCommitteewillmeetasandwhenrequired,butnotless frequently than twice ayear to consider progressintheimplementationoftheTanaDeltaLandUsePlan(and land use plans for other deltas when these areformulated).

10.3 The Role of the National Land CommissionThe systemof land use and decisions relating to landtenurehas failed to take intoconsiderationcustomaryrightsofcommunitieswithin theTanaDeltaandthereare a number of disputed land holdings. These concerns underliemanyofthedisputeswhichhaveledtounrestandviolencewithintheDelta.Aconsciousdecisionwastakenwhen developing the LandUsePlan, that thesehistoric injustices and disputes should not be allowedtoinfluencerationalplan-makingandsoallareaswithinthe Tana Delta have been examined dispassionatelywithoutconcernforownership,todeterminewhattheirmostbeneficialandpracticalusesmightbewithin theconstraints andopportunities posedby thevision andgoalsfortheprotectionofthisinternationallyimportantresource.TheNational LandCommissionwill focus itsattentiononconstitutional rightsof individualcitizens,thelegalframeworkandpoliciesrelatingtolandtenure,but itwillalsotakefully intoaccountthestatusoftheLandUsePlanandthehighlyconsultativeprocessthathas been used to generate the plan.


10.4 The Role of the JudiciaryLocalcommunitieswithintheTanaDeltahavepursuedcivilactionsintherecentpastinordertopressthecasefor theirownvoices tobeheardon landuseplanningdecisionswithintheTanaDelta.Themostrecentcourtjudgement found strongly in favour of communityinterestswithsomepointedcriticismoftherolesplayedby national agencies. A major constraint in the pasthasbeen theabsenceofany formof landuseplan toguide collective decisions. Adoption of this Land UsePlanwillprovide,forthefirsttime,aclearsetofgoalsandobjectivesfor theTanaRiverDelta.Assuch itwillbecomeakeyreferencedocumentforthecivilcourtsatbothcountyandnationallevelwhendeterminingfuturelegal responses.

10.5 The Role of County GovernmentPrimary responsibility for landuse andurbanplanningfalls on the County governments under the CountyGovernment Act, 2012 and each County has alreadyproduced an initial County Integrated DevelopmentPlanwhichwill be extended over time. However, theActsetsspecificobligationsoneachCountytopreparea hierarchy of plans.TheTanaDelta LandUse Plan isoneofthefirstplans inKenyatotackleabroadrangeofplanning,landuseandcommunityissuesoveralargeareaadministeredbytwocountyauthorities.

Counties are in the process of establishing their ownplanning departments and it is clear in the case of the Tana Delta that additional resources will be requiredboth in terms of staff andfinances in order to deliverthe full agenda. The scale of the challenges facing the Tana Delta has been fully reviewed in the StrategicEnvironmental Assessment (Odhengo et al, 2014a) and thisstudyhasexposedthecomplexitiesofmanyofthekeyissuessummarisedinChapter2ofthisPlan.Inordertoaddressthesechallenges,itwillbecriticaltoprovidetheGovernors’ administrations, Senators, allMembersof Parliament (MPs) and Members of the CountyAssemblies (MCAs)withdetailedbriefingson theplanandSEAfindingsandthewaysinwhichtheplanpoliciesand planning statements are to be used to ensure that sustainable development is achieved.

TherehasbeenmuchcriticisminKenyaofthewaysinwhich politicians have used their official positions tofurthertheirown interestsand itwillbeessential thatappropriatechecksandbalancesareputinplaceunderthecountygovernancestructurestoimplementtheTanaDeltaLandUsePlan.

Themostcriticalroleofthecountygovernmentswillbeto review and reach decisions on future developmentproposalsaffectingtheTanaDelta.Thiswillnecessitate

the establishment of a planning committee under theCounty Assemblies, which can scrutinise and makerecommendations on all proposals. Some proposalswill be of a sufficient size and importance to requireratificationandapprovalbythefullCountyAssembly(s)butothersmaybedecidedbytheplanningcommitteeusingdelegatedpowers, thedetailsofwhichwillneedto be formalised in the Development Control Scheme.

10.6 The Role of Communities and IndividualsTheCountyGovernmentsAct,2012,setsoutveryclearlythe obligations on government in relation to citizensunder Part VIII – Citizen Participation, S.87 includingproviding:1. timely access to information, data, documents

andother informationrelevantor relatedtopolicyformulationandimplementation;

2. reasonable access to the process of formulatingand implementing policies, laws and regulations,including the approval of development proposals, projectsandbudgets,thegrantingofpermitsandtheestablishmentofspecificperformancestandards.

Until the Tana Delta Land Use Planning process wasinitiatedin2011,mostifnotallcommunitiesintheDeltafelttotallymarginalisedandneglected.Afterlongperiodsofneglectbypublicadministrationsitisunderstandablethat suspicions should remain at community level anditwill take time until all bodies feel that they have agenuinevoice.Nevertheless,theinitialworkoftheTana Planning Advisory Committee (TPAC)overthelasttwoyearshasprovedbeyondalldoubtthatitispossibleforall community interests to engage in dialogue aboutfutureplanningobjectivesevenwhentensionsbetweendifferentgroupshavebeenexceedinglyhigh.

The TPAC is seen as having a central role in ensuring the successful implementationof theTanaDelta LandUsePlan.Itsrolewillneedtobeformalisedinrelationtoexistinggovernancestructureswithin individualethnicgroups.AfundamentalprincipleoftheTPACisthatitsmembershipshouldbetrulyrepresentativeofmarginalgroups and individuals and should achieve a full gender balance.

TheprincipalroleoftheTPACwillbetoactasasoundingboardofcommunityviewsonallplanningissueswithintheTanaDelta for thebenefitofNationalandCountygovernments,andasaconduit forsharing informationdowntoindividualcommunities.

TheTPACwill receiveanannual reportonprogress inimplementingtheTanaDeltaLandUsePlan,coveringallelementsoftheplan.Thisreportwillincludeafullupdate


onimplementationofurbanandruralsettlementplans,land use statistics, information on local conflicts overlandandwater,measurestopreservekeyenvironmentalhabitats, thecreationofnew livelihoodsand jobs,andpromotion of tourism and industry, amongst otherthings.

The County Government Act, 2012 sets out theframework for engagement of communities in spatialplanning and specifically requires that counties ‘shalldesignate county departments, cities and urban areas,sub-counties and Wards as planning authorities’. InadditiontothecountyplanningdepartmentsinHolaandLamu, planning functionswill also be exercised in theurban areas designated under this Plan (Garsen,Wituand Tarasaa) and individual Wards.

10.7 The Role of Civil Society and Non-Government OrganisationsA number of civil society and non-governmentalorganisations have played a highly significant role inassisting local communities to improve livelihoods,reduce the risks of natural disasters and defend theirrights.ThesebodieshaveincludedtheKenyaRedCross,ActionAid,WorldWide Fund for Nature (WWF) andothers.ThemostactiveintermsofsupportingtheTanaDeltaLandUsePlanandSEAhasbeenNatureKenya,which formed a unique partnership with governmentinorder tobring together theofficialpowers forplan-makingwithcommunity-orientedliaisonandadvocacy.InadditiontosupportingtheplanningprocesswithstafffromitsfulltimeofficeinGarsen,NatureKenyahasalsobeen demonstrating practical solutions to sustainablelivelihoodsdevelopmentinanumberofpilotsettlementsthroughout the Delta including Walkon, Hurara, Ozi,Wema, Hewani, Onkolde,Moa, Shirikisho, Ziwani andKipao Villages.

WhilemostactivitiesundertakenbythevoluntarysectorhavebeenbeneficialfortheTanaDeltatherearetimeswhen the multiplicity of external interests who havesought to engage, out of very sound humanitarian orenvironmental concern, in research, project development andaidreliefhascausedconfusionandcompetitionforresources.Itwill,thereforebecriticalthatfutureeffortsbycivilsocietyandnon-governmentalorganisationsarecoordinated closelywith theoverarchingobjectivesoftheTanaDeltaLandUsePlan.

10.8 Administration of the Land Use PlanTheprocessofadministering theTanaDeltaLandUsePlan andmaking sure that its policies, regulations andguidelines are observedwill be a continuous exerciseandwilldemandahighlevelofplanningexpertiseanddedication on the part of the County GovernmentofficerswhoaredelegatedtomanagethePlan.

Specific requirements are set out in the CountyGovernmentsAct,2012inrelationtoproductionoftheIntegratedCountyDevelopmentPlan,CountySectoralPlans,CountySpatialPlansand(undertheUrbanAreasandCitiesAct)citiesandurbanareaplans.

TheTanaDeltaLandUsePlanisaspatialplanunderthemeaningoftheCountyGovernmentsActwhichdefinessuch plans as ‘ten year county GIS based databasesystemspatialplans,whichshallbeacomponentofthecountyintegrateddevelopmentplan’.

TheextentoftheareacoveredbytheTanaLUPandthecomplexity of the planning issues that are raised willrequire a level of resources beyond those that can besupportedby thePlanningOfficer to be appointedbyeachcountygovernment.

Itisanticipatedthat,inadditiontothecountyplanningofficer and technical support staffwhowill deal withindividual planning applications, therewill need to bea full time Coordinator/Project Manager for the TanaDelta.Thisindividualwillneedtohavethefullconfidenceof theCountyAssemblies andGovernors and be abletooperateatasufficientlyseniorleveltointeractwithNational Government ministries, international fundingpartners, national and international investors and allcommunitygroups.

Theprincipal roleof theTanaDelta LUPCoordinator/Project Manager will be to advance the individualobjectives of the plan, including promoting industrialandcommercialdevelopment,stimulatingprivatesectorinterest,deliveringUrbanandRuralDevelopmentPlanstotime,overseeingsurveysandgenerallyassistingtheGovernorstoachievetheLUPvisionandgoals.


CHAPTER

11 LINKS TO OTHER PLANS AND PROGRAMMES

8.1 Introduction ThechaptercoverslinksbetweentheLandUsePlanandother plans, strategies and management plans for:i.RamsarSiteManagementii.ProtectedandGazettedAreasiii. Wateriv. Agriculturev. Economic Developmentvi.CoastalPlanningandIntegratedCoastalZone Managementvii.Climatechangeadaptation

Its principal purpose is to highlight the high level of interaction that is required between all planningprocessesandtoensurethattheTanaDelta’sneedsarefullyrecognisedinotherdevelopmentplans.

11.2 Ramsar Management PlanTheTanaDeltawasdeclaredaRamsarsiteandaWetlandof International Importanceon12thOctober,2012.Akeyaimofdesignationisthatthisarea,thesecondmostimportant estuarine and deltaic ecosystem in EasternAfrica, should be preserved for future generations.This will require detailed and careful management ofthe mosaic of individual habitats that are listed in the Ramsarcitation.(SeeBox11.1).

Individualhabitatshavedistinctscientificcharacteristicsin terms of the species of plants and animals that are

present, but thedistinctionsbetweenonehabitat andanotherareoften tooprecise tobe relevant forbroadlanduseplanningpurposes.Consequently,thelanduseclasses thathavebeendefined in theTanaDeltaLandUsePlanwilloftencontainmorethanonehabitattype. The LandUse Plan defines the policies and principlesthatwillbeappliedtoeach landclassthroughtheuseofplanningstatementswhenconsideringdevelopmentproposals(seeChapter9).However,thereisaneedformorepreciseguidanceonhowtoprotectandmaintainindividual habitats and this is the role of the Management PlanfortheRamsarsite.

TheManagementPlan for theTanaDeltaRamsar site,which isbeingcoordinatedbyNEMA,KWSandothergovernment agencies, will be prepared in accordancewiththeManagementPlanGuidelinesapprovedinSpain(2002)entitled“New Guidelines for management planning for Ramsar sites and other wetlands - Adopted by Resolution VIII.14 (2002) of the Ramsar Convention”.

Akeymessageintheseguidelines(item4)isthat“Ramsarsite management plans should be integrated into the publicdevelopmentplanningsystematlocal,regionalornationallevel.Theintegrationofsitemanagementplansinto spatial and economic planning at the appropriatelevelwillensureimplementation,publicparticipationandlocalownership.Furthermore, integrationwillenhance

BOX 11.1 Selected Habitats defined in the Ramsar Citation for the Tana Delta

Ts Seasonal marshes on inorganic soil (the floodplains) 450 km2

A Permanent shallow marine waters 235 km2

I Intertidal forested wetlands (mangroves) 45 km2

4 Seasonally flooded agricultural land 40 km2

Xf Freshwater tree-dominated wetlands 20 km2

G Intertidal mud, sand or salt flats 15 km2

P Permanent freshwater lakes 10 km2

M Permanent rivers, streams, creeks 10 km2

E Sandy shores 8 km2

N Seasonal rivers, streams, creeks 8 km2

J Coastal saline lagoons 3 km2

F Estuarine waters 3 km2

P Seasonal freshwater lakes 2 km2

Tp Permanent freshwater marshes <1 km2

3 Irrigated land <1 km2

9 Canals <1 km2


the possibility of local as well as external funding”.DeliveryofthisobjectivehasbeenakeycomponentincreatingtheframeworkoftheLandUsePlan.

11.3 Protected Forests and Gazetted AreasTheForestsAct,2005definesStateforestsasareasofforestthatwereformallydeclaredandgazettedbeforethepassageoftheAct,andaddsfurtherdefinitionsofforesttoincludeindigenousforest(containingnativetreespecies includingMangrove and bamboo); communityforests(managedbylocalcommunityassociations)andplantations(managedcommercially).UndertheAct,theDirector of the Kenya Forest Service may enter intoagreementwithprivateandcommunityassociationstodevelopmanagementplansforforests.Section40(1)oftheActmakesspecificreferencetoforestrymanagementinindigenousforests,whichincludemostoftheforestspresent in the Tana Delta:“Allindigenousforestsandwoodlandsshallbemanagedonasustainablebasisforpurposesof:-a. conservationofwater,soilandbiodiversity;b. riverineandshorelineprotection;c. culturaluseandheritage;d. recreationandtourism;e. sustainable production of wood and non-wood

products;f. carbon sequestration and other environmental

services;g. educationandresearchpurposes;andh. habitatforwildlifeinterrestrialforestsandfisheries

in mangrove forests.

These principles are also enshrined in the planning policiesandPlanningStatementsoftheTanaDeltaLandUsePlan.

Another importantpower introducedby section46oftheForestsAct,2005 istoestablishcommunityforestassociationsandgrantthesebodiesrightstoparticipateinthemanagementorconservationofaforestorpartofa forest in order to:a. protect, conserve and manage such forest or part

thereof pursuant to an approved management agreement entered into under this Act and the provisionsofthemanagementplanfortheforest;

b. formulate and implement forest programmes consistent with the traditional forest user rightsof the community concerned in accordance withsustainableusecriteria;

c. protectsacredgrovesandprotectedtrees;d. assisttheForestServiceinenforcingtheprovisions

of (the) Act and any rules and regulations madepursuant thereto, in particular in relation to illegalharvestingofforestproduce;

e. with the approval of the Board enter intopartnershipswithotherpersonsforthepurposesofensuringtheefficientandsustainableconservationandmanagementofforests;

f. keep the Service informed of any developments,changes and occurrences within the forest whicharecriticalfortheconservationofbiodiversity;

g. helpinfirefighting;andh. doanyotheract that isnecessaryfor theefficient

conservationandmanagementoftheforest.

Managementagreementsbetween theDirectorof theForest Service and individual associations may conferontheassociationalloranyofthefollowingforestuserrights–a. collectionofmedicinalherbs;b. harvestingofhoney;c. harvestingoftimberorfuelwood;d. grassharvestingandgrazing;e. collection of forest produce for community based

industries;f. ecotourismandrecreationalactivities;g. scientificandeducationactivities;h. plantation establishment through non-resident

cultivation;i. contracts to assist in carrying out specified

silviculturaloperations;j. development of community wood and non-wood

forestbasedindustries;andk. other benefits which may from time to time be

agreed.(GovernmentofKenya,2005)

The provisions of the ForestAct 2005, accord closelywiththeoverallobjectivesoftheTanaDeltaLandUsePlan and every effort will be made by the Tana andLamu county governments and Kenya Forest Serviceto encourage the establishment of community forestassociations and to develop integrated managementplansforallforestareasinthePlanArea.Similarmeasureswill be promoted between the public authorities andprivateenterprisesandindividualsowningforestswithinthePlanArea.

11.4 Water ResourcesWater is themost important resourcewithin theTanaDelta and the LandUse Plan has defined for the firsttime the conditions thatwill need to bemet in orderto safeguard future water supplies in perpetuity.However, the Plan recognises that this goal will onlybemet ifwater resources aremanaged equitably andsustainablythroughouttherestoftheRiverTanaBasin.ResponsibilityforwaterpolicyisvestedintheMinistryof Environment, Water and Natural Resources, whiletheWaterResourcesManagementAgency (WRMA) is


engaged in strategic management and development of waterresources.Significantprogresshasbeenmadeinreforming the water sector following adoption of theNationalWaterPolicyin1999.Thishasincluded:• EnactmentandoperationalisationoftheWaterAct

2002;• DevelopmentandfinalizationoftheWaterResources

ManagementStrategy(firstedition2007);• Production of an IntegratedWater Resources and

WaterEfficiencyPlan(August2009)and• Finalisation of the Catchment Management

Strategies (CMS).In accordancewith theWaterAct2002afirst editionof the National Water Resources Management wasdeveloped in2007-2009.Thestrategydescribeshowwater resources shall be managed, protected, used,developed, conserved and controlled. One of its seven principle objectives is the need to createmechanismsfor integrating land andwater resources planning andmanagement on a catchment basis.

Catchment Management Strategies have been prepared for all sixmajor river basins, including the RiverTana,based on a series of consultative meetings in whichstakeholders’viewsweresoughtandincorporatedintothefinalCMS.WRMAnotesinitswebsitethattheRiverTana catchment is faced by a number of challenges,including:• Acutewaterscarcity• Pollution ofwater resources from both point and

non-pointpollutionsources• CatchmentdegradationespeciallyonMt.Kenyaand

on slopes of Aberdares ranges• Soil erosion and overgrazing in the lower parts of

the region• Humanencroachmentsintothewatershed• High groundwater salinity in Lower Tana, in the

coastalzone,duetoover-exploitation• Seawater intrusion affecting the quality of

groundwater• Increasedwaterresourcedemand,urbanizationand

industrialization.

These findings are supported by the SEA analysis fortheTanaDeltaLandUsePlan.Withineachriverbasin,sub-catchmentsaredefined,eachofwhichwillrequireits own management plan. Under the principles ofintegrated water resource management (IWRM), theintentionisthatsub-catchmentplanswillbedevelopedwith the active assistance of Water Resource UserAssociations (WRUAs). A WRUA has been set up tocover the lower River Tana basin including the deltaarea.Thereare,however,manychallengesaffectingtherole and functions of WRUAs, including the absenceof adequate funds, so it will take time before theseinstitutionsbecomefullyeffective.

Themostimportantcomponentforfuturewaterresourceplanningwill concern the level of storage that can beprovidedwithineachcatchment.InthecaseoftheRiverTanaBasinandTanaDelta,keydecisionsremaintobetakenbygovernmentontheconstructionprogrammesfor the High Grand Falls Dam and its associateddownstream storage reservoir. Failure to address thesocial, environmental and economic issues relating tothesemajorwaterresourceprojectscouldjeopardizeanumber ofVision 2030flagship projects including theLAPSSETcorridordevelopmentsandreconstructionofmajor irrigation schemes.There thereforeneeds tobetheclosestcooperationbetweenthetwoGovernmentsofTanaandLamuCounties,theMinistryofEnvironment,WaterandNaturalResourcesandWRMA.

11.5 Agriculture and IrrigationA strategy for agricultural sector development (2010-2020)was published by the government in 2010 andcontainedanatIonalIrrigatIonpolicyandlegalframework(Government ofKenya, 2010).Theoverall goal of thisinterventionistoacceleratesustainabledevelopmentofirrigationanddrainagetocontributetothenationalgoalsofwealthandemploymentcreation, foodsecurityandpovertyreduction.Thisisalsostatedtobeinlinewiththecountry’saspirationsfortransformingagricultureasunderpinnedbyVision2030.

Thepolicyonirrigationanddrainagewillseektoachievethefollowing:• fullydevelopandexploittheirrigationanddrainage

potential in the country to achieve food security,createemployment,supplyrawmaterialsandreducepoverty.

• effectively promote, coordinate, manage andregulatethecoreactivitieswithintheirrigationanddrainage subsector.

Under the 2010-2020 strategy it is proposed thatconstructionoftheTanaDeltaProject,aimedatirrigatedsugarproduction covering16,000ha, shouldbegiventhehighestpriority(GovernmentofKenya,2010).Manyof the agricultural and irrigation initiatives proposedin the Agricultural Sector Development Strategycontradict environmental and social safeguards that are built into the same strategy, including itsownpolicieson environment, wetlands and forests. The strategyacknowledgesunderasection(6.4.1)onchallengesandconstraints,thefollowingfindingsoffact:“Watercatchmentsarebeingencroachedandconvertedintoagriculturalland.Thishasledtoreducedwaterlevelsin rivers, drying up of seasonal rivers and destructionof fragile ecosystems. Vital for carbon sequestration,wetlands are lost every day to agricultural production(Frenken,2005).”


The extensive research undertaken for theTanaDeltaLandUsePlan,combinedwiththefindingsfromitshighlyinclusive socio-economic survey of over 80 villages,confirmsthisanalysisandshowsthattheaspirationstoturntheTanaDelta intoa largemono-culture irrigateddevelopmentschemeareill-foundedandwouldnotonlydestroy the integrity of this internationalwetland butwould also inflame local tensions, leading to renewedconflict.

Instead, the Land Use Plan puts forward innovativeproposals for community-based public-privatepartnership agricultural schemes focused on high value vegetable, fruit and livestock development. AnalysisshowsthatthenetbenefitstotheTanaDeltaeconomy,social welfare and environment will greatly exceedother options and the active support of the MinistryofAgriculturewillbesoughtinordertoimplementthisalternativevisionfortheDelta.

11.6 Economic DevelopmentAn important role of the technical studies underpinning theTanaDeltaLandUsePlanhasbeentoexploretherealistic opportunities for promoting new forms ofeconomic developmentwithin the Plan area over thenext fortyyears insupportof theunderlyingconceptsof Vision 2030. It is widely accepted that the initialprocess of generating Vision 2030 failed to includea proper assessment of the social and environmental consequences of large scale development projects, as is now required by the Constitution. However, bycombiningplan-makingandenvironmentalassessment,theTanaDeltaLandUsePlanhasbrokennewgroundin generating a list of potential new industrial andcommercialactivitiesfortheDeltaarea,andinallocatinglandforthecreationofthenecessaryindustrialestates,whichcanbeaccommodatedwithintheenvironmentalfootprint of the Delta.

The Land Use Plan recognises the importance of thechanges that are beingmade, andwill continue to bemade,inroad,rail,powerandwaterinfrastructureoverthenextfourdecadesinsupportofthedevelopmentofthenewportatLamuandanticipatesrisingdemandforfinishedproducts from theDelta includingmeat, foodandproductsfromnaturalresourcesincludingessentialoils.

Another major opportunity for the Tana Delta liesin the promotion of eco-tourism. An initial tourismmasterplanwasprepared forTARDA in2007buthasnot been developed to any significant extent. Thereis renewed interest in developing tourism strategiesandplans atnational levelwith the recentpublicationof the Sustainable TourismMaster Plan for the Inter-

GovernmentalAuthorityonDevelopment(IGAD)Region(2013-2023).

The two County Governments will work closely withtheircounterpartsinnationalgovernmenttorefinethelistofeconomicdevelopmentopportunitiesforthePlanArea.

11.7 Coastal PlanningInadditiontolyingwithintheRiverTanaBasin,muchoftheTanaDeltaalsoformspartofthecoastalzone,wherea number ofmajor planning initiatives are planned bybothgovernmentagenciesliketheCoastDevelopmentAuthority and international partners. The governmenthassecuredalargegrantfromtheInternationalMonetaryFund (IMF)and theWorldBank tocarryoutacoastaldevelopmentprojectwithfourmaincomponents.Thesecover sustainable management of fisheries resources,sound management of natural resources, support for alternative livelihoodsandcapacitybuilding.AnumberoftheplannedinitiativescouldbeverybeneficialwithintheTanaDeltaandwouldhelptounderpintheLandUsePlan’soverallobjectives.

Integrated coastal management is one of the elements in this development programme and is linked withpublication of a draft Integrated Coastal ZoneManagementPolicyinDecember2013.

11.8 Climate Change AdaptationThe government is advancing plans to respond to the anticipatedchangesinclimaticconditionsasaresultofglobalwarminganditsNationalClimateChangeActionPlan (NCCAP) covers theperiod2013-2017.This setsouta‘lowcarbonclimateresilientdevelopmentpathway,to help meet Vision 2030 with an action plan thataddresses both sustainable development and climate change’(GovernmentofKenya,2012).

Specificmeasuresinclude:Agriculture: promoting irrigatedagriculture,promotingconservation agriculture, value addition to agriculturalproducts, developing weather indexed crop insuranceschemes, support for community-based adaptationincluding provision of climate information to farmers,andenhancedfinancialandtechnicalsupporttodroughtresistant crops.

Livestock and Pastoralism: Breeding animals tolerantto local climatic conditions,weather indexed livestockinsurance,establishmentoffodderbanks,documentingindigenousknowledge,provisionofwaterfor livestockand humans, early warning systems for droughts andfloods,andvaccinationcampaigns.


Water Resources: Enforcement and/or enactmentof laws for efficient water resource management,increasing capture and retention of rainwater, waterqualitymonitoring,de-siltingriversanddams,protectingand conserving water catchment areas, investing indecentralized municipal water recycling facilities,campaignsonwaterharvesting,developinghydrometricnetworkstomonitorriverflowsandfloodwarning.

Forestry: Intensified afforestation, promotingagroforestry-based alternative livelihood systems,promotingalternativeenergysources,communityforest

management, REDD+ initiatives and reduced mono-speciesplantationstands.

Energy: promoting the use of alternative energyincludinggeothermal,wind,solarandminihydropowergeneration;andthepromotionofimprovedcookstoves(GovernmentofKenya,2012).

TherearecloseparallelsbetweentheTanaDeltaLandUsePlanandthesenationalobjectives,andtheCountyGovernments will work closely with the nationalgovernment to achieve their common aims.


CHAPTER

12 MONITORING AND EVALUATION OF THE PLAN

12.1 IntroductionTheLandUsePlanisnotastaticproductbutwillneedtoberevisedatfiveyearlyintervalsinaccordancewithsection 110 (4) (County Spatial Plans). “Each countyspatialplanshallbereviewedeveryfiveyearsandtherevisionsapprovedbytherespectivecountyassemblies”.Anumberofkey issueswillneedtobemonitoredandevaluated using GIS and these include:i.PopulationGrowthii.WaterSupplyandDemandiii.Livestocknumbersiv.Landusev.Habitatconditionvi.Socialconditionsvii.Economicconditions

12.2 Use of a Geographic Information System (GIS)The most effective way of monitoring the successesandfailuresoftheTanaDeltaLandUsePlanwillbetodevelop and enlarge the existing GIS created for thepreparatorystudiessothataccuratemapsandplanscanbeproducedforallpartsofthePlanArea.TheGISwillform the basis of individual development plans for both urbanandruralareas–ofthetypeillustratedinChapter13.OperationofaGISisrelativelystraightforwardbutthe process requires a skilled operator and is a dataintensiveandtime-consumingprocess.

12.3 Population GrowthTheTanaRiverDeltaSEAhighlightspopulationgrowthfromnaturalincreaseandinwardmigrationasoneofthegreatest internal challenges to achieving a sustainable balance of land useswithin the Tana Delta. Althoughcurrent tensions are caused largely by disputes overaccesstolandandwater,theunderlyingreasonfortheconflictsisoftenrelatedtothespreadofsettlementsandthenumberofpeoplewhohavetorelyondiminishingresources. Sixty years ago, the majority of currentvillagesdidnotexistandtheseproblemswererelativelyminorbutthepopulationoftheDeltaislikelytodoubleinthenext25yearsandmorethantrebleinsizeby2050unlessmeasuresaretakentoreversethecurrenttrends.

ItisimperativethataccuratedataiscollectedatthenextcensusonthedistributionofpopulationthroughouttheDeltaandwithintheBufferZoneandthatprogrammesforencouragingeffectivefamilyplanningaredevelopedandassessedonayearlybasis.

12.4 Water Supply and DemandMonitoring the demand, use and availability of waterwill be one of the most critical undertakings for theTana Delta Land Use Plan. However, the issues arecomplex andwill need to be tackled from national tocounty levels by a number of different organisations.At national level the Ministry of Environment, WaterandNaturalResourcesandWRMAwillneedtoexpandand improve their knowledge and understanding oftheentirehydrologicalsystemoftheRiverTanaBasin.Todateresearchhasbeenconcentrated largelyontheupper catchment,with a limited amount of evaluationin themiddle basin between Garissa and Hola. Therehas beenminimalmonitoring or research in the lowerbasinfromHolatothesea.Continuousrealtimegaugingof theRiverTana flows should be established atHolaandGarsenanddetailedsurveysshouldbeundertakento determine the existence of ‘hidden’ channels thatcarryfloodwaterawayfromthemainriverchannels.Afullhydrologicalstudyshouldbecommissionedforthemiddle and lowerRiverTana and its results should bepublishedandanalysedbeforetheHighGrandFallsDamis constructed.

12.5 Livestock NumbersThefirststeptowardscreatingamonitoringframeworkforlivestockshouldberegistrationoftheownershipandsizeofallexistingherdsofcattle,andflocksofgoatsandsheepthataregrazedwithintheDelta.Thisprocessofregistration shouldbe supportedbydirect counting inthefield.Theproposaltoestablishalivestockwardeningsystem should include annual records of the numbersand conditionof livestock being driven into theDeltaareaduringdryseasonsfromoutlyingareas.Resultsofthesesurveysshouldbeanalysedandpublishedannuallywiththeaimofensuringthattotalnumbersoflivestockare broughtwithin sustainable grazing capacitywithintenyears.

12.6 Land UseAccuratemappingof theextentof different landuseswithintheTanaDeltaisanimportantrequirementoftheLandUsePlan.Studiesundertakenaspartof theLUPpreparationhavehighlightedsomeofthedifficultiesincreatingmapsusinggeographicpositioning to identifyspecific locations inthefield.Thesedifficultiesarenottechnical in nature but arise from levels of suspicion andmistrustonthepartoflocalcommunitiesaboutthefunctionsandpurposestowhichtheinformationwillbeput.


Communities are understandably concerned about allaspects of surveying because in the past there havebeendeliberateattemptsbyinvestorsto‘establish’titleandownershiptoareasbyplacingbeaconsandmarkersontheground.ItwillbeimportantfortheGovernmentsof Tana River and Lamu Counties to establish surveyteams toundertakemappingexercises throughout theTanaDelta.Therolesandfunctionsoftheseteamswillneedtobecarefullyexplainedtoallcommunityleaders.LandUsesurveyteamswillworkwiththeCountyLandUsePlannerstoprepareaccurateboundarymapsforallurban and rural development plans.

12.7 Habitat ConditionSafeguarding the nature conservation interests andbiodiversity of the Tana Delta will require regularmonitoring of certain key habitats, like RiverineForestsandalsospeciesofplantsandanimalsthataresensitivetochangesinenvironmentalconditions.Thesemonitoring targets shouldbe linkedwherepossible toexistingsurveys,forexamplebirdcounts.

12.8 Social ConditionsThe ten yearly census is the most comprehensivesource of data on social conditions across Kenya andit is built up from detailed information gathered atWard or Enumerator level. However, collecting suchinformationwithinaremotearealiketheTanaDeltacanbeverydifficultduetolackofaccess,especiallyduringperiods of flooding; andbecause literacy levels are solow.ThelevelofinformationusedinpreparationofthisfirstTanaDeltaLandUsePlanhasbeenaggregatedatformer district level and this imposes some considerable limitationsoncloseranalysisofindividualwards.Itwillbeimportantforthefirst,andsubsequentreviewsoftheLUPtoensurethatallsocialdatacanbeaccessedattheWard level.

12.9 Economic ConditionsMore detailed information is requiredwithin theTanaDelta on the number of formal jobs that are available and on patterns of livelihoods. An economic developmentunit should be established within each County tomonitorthenumberofbusinessenterprises,employersandemployeesandthisinformationshouldbeupdatedon an annual basis.


CHAPTER

13 THE ACTION PLAN

13.1 IntroductionThroughout this document there are references to actions that will need to be taken in order to securesuccessful implementation the Tana Delta Land UsePlan.Thischapterdrawstogetherthedifferentthemesandactions inorder tomake it easier for the relevant

authorities todevelopappropriateprogrammesand toprovidethecommunities,civilsocietiesandNGOswithachecklistforencouragingpublicactionandalsoplanningtheirownsupport.ThelistofactivitiesisshowninTable13.1andisfollowedwithasummarydescriptionofeachactivityandtask.

No. Action Plan section Responsibility Timescale 1. Create a land and water register 8.2 (3) –(4) County

Governments Within 6 months (2015)

2. Register all land use activities involving abstraction of water from the River Tana

8.2 (3) and (5)

County Governments

18 months (2016)

3. Introduce formal application system for permission to abstract water within the Tana Delta

8.2 (9) County Governments

1 January 2017

4. Confirm hierarchy of settlements and prepare Urban Development Plans (Planning Statement S1)

8.2.2.3 8.6.8

County planning departments

2 years (by 2017)

5. Carry out surveys of all settlements and produce Rural Development Plans (Planning Statement S2)

8.2.2.3 8.6.6


5 years (by 2019)

6. Identify, survey and formally designate industrial zones and prepare Industrial Area Action Plans by 2016

8.6.9 County planning departments

2 years (by 2017)

7. Prepare an integrated Water and Land Management Action Plan for the Upper Delta

8.4 County Governments /WRMA

3 years (by 2018)

8. Undertake a full land use survey of the terraces (Planning Statement LD6)

8.5 County planning departments

2 years (by 2017)

9. Undertake a land use survey of wetland farming areas and produce related maps


2 years (by 2017)

10. Progressively refine the overall land use classes map for the Plan Area


5 years (by 2019)

11. Make presentations nationally on the need for revisions affecting water resources, irrigation and agriculture policies, plans, programmes and strategies

(Ch.11) County Governors / County Assemblies

On a continuous basis

12. Create a water-‐balance model for the Plan Area with estimates of all current uses and a framework for analysis of future developments

8.2 (3) 8.4

County Governments /WRMA

2 years (by 2017)

13. Create an accurate base map using GIS for all forest areas (Planning Statement DF1)

8.6.7 County Planning Departments /KFS

Within 6 months (2015)

14. Create management plans for all forests

8.6.5 8.6.7

County Planning Departments /KFS/KWS/NEMA

Within 2 years (2017)

15. Introduce livestock registration (Planning Statement LM2)

8.7.1 County Livestock Department

By December 2016

16. Establish a livestock committee (Planning Statement LM3)

County Governments


17. Develop a livestock management plan

8.7.1 County Governments


18. Establish a livestock wardening system (Planning Statement LM4)



19. Identify and map areas used for flood recession farming


2 years (by 2017)

Table 13.1 Action Plan





8.2 (3) and (5)

County Governments

18 months (2016)



1 January 2017


8.2.2.3 8.6.8


2 years (by 2017)


8.2.2.3 8.6.6


5 years (by 2019)



2 years (by 2017)



3 years (by 2018)



2 years (by 2017)



2 years (by 2017)



5 years (by 2019)





8.2 (3) 8.4


2 years (by 2017)





8.6.5 8.6.7





By December 2016


County Governments










2 years (by 2017)




8.2 (3) and (5)

County Governments

18 months (2016)



1 January 2017


8.2.2.3 8.6.8


2 years (by 2017)


8.2.2.3 8.6.6


5 years (by 2019)



2 years (by 2017)



3 years (by 2018)



2 years (by 2017)



2 years (by 2017)



5 years (by 2019)





8.2 (3) 8.4


2 years (by 2017)





8.6.5 8.6.7





By December 2016


County Governments










2 years (by 2017)

13.2 Brief Description of Actions Required13.2.1 Create a Land and Water RegisterThe Governments of Tana River and Lamu Countieswill establish a land and water register in electroniclistformatforrecordingthenamesandlocationsofallenterprisesthatarecurrentlyabstractingwaterfromtheRiverTanawithintheTanaDelta.

13.2.2 Register all Land Use Activities involving Abstraction of Water from the River TanaAllwater userswithin theTanaDeltawill be requiredtosubmitdetailsoftheiractivitiesandestimatesofthequantitiesofwaterabstractedannually from theRiverTana.

13.2.3 Introduce formal application system for permission to abstract water within the Tana DeltaFrom 1st January 2017 it will be a legal requirementfor allwater userswithin the Tana Delta to apply forpermission from the relevant County Government inordertocontinueextractingwaterfromtheRiverTana.Proposalsinvolvingmorethan10millioncubicmetresayear(equivalentto0.3m3/sec)willrequireafullEIAand

mayberefusediftheschemewouldhaveasignificanteffectonthecumulativemeanmonthlydischargelevelof 60 m3/sec.

13.2.4 Confirm Hierarchy of Settlements and Prepare Urban Development PlansFollowing publication and consultation on the TanaDelta Land Use Plan, the County Governments willreviewtheproposeddesignationofGarsen,Witu,KipiniandTarasaaasurbancentres (andanyothercandidatesettlements proposed through a consultative process)and confirm the hierarchyof urban centres.WorkwillthencommenceondrawingupfullUrbanDevelopmentPlansforthesecentres.

13.2.5 Carry out Surveys of all Settlements and Produce Rural Development PlansThere are in excess of eighty settlements (groupsof more than 10 households) within the Tana Deltaand new villages are being created as the populationexpands. The village appraisals undertaken as part ofthe Tana Delta Land Use Planwill be followed up byformal survey to record accurate positions for all themaindevelopment(buildings/compounds)andlandusesusingglobal positioningby satellite (GPS) instruments.


Ruraldevelopmentplanswillbepreparedforsettlementsmeetingthecriteria(villagesinexistenceformorethantenyearsandlyingoutsidethefloodzoneoftheRiverTana).

13.2.6 Identify, Survey and Formally Designate Industrial Zones and Prepare Industrial Area Action PlansAs specified in the Tana Delta Land Use Plan, fourindustrialestateswillbeestablished inthemainurbancentresofGarsen,Witu,TarasaaandKipini.Landsurveyswill beundertaken todetermine themost appropriatelocations and to establish the need for relocationand compensation of any existing land user in theseareas.The industrialestateboundarieswillbeformallyestablishedandwayleaveaccessforallserviceswillbesafeguarded.Specificactionplanswill bedrawnup toguide thedevelopmentof theseestatesover thenext5-10years.

13.2.7 Prepare an integrated Water and Land Management Action Plan for the Upper DeltaTheUpperDeltaholdsmuchofthelandthatissuitablefor agricultural development linked with seasonalor permanent (pumped and gravity-fed) irrigation.Redevelopment of the former TARDA IntegratedRiceProject is already in progress butwill need toberationalised in accordance with the provisions of theTanaDeltaLandUsePlan.TheUpperDeltawillthereforeform the focusofan integrated landandwateractionplan to guide future development in this area.

13.2.8 Undertake a Full Land Use Survey of the TerracesAfullphysicalsurveyisrequiredfortheterraces,usingaerialphotography,landsat(satellite)images(processedby NASA and utilised by Google Earth) and groundreconnaissancetomap,accurately,theextentofexistingsettlement and land use.This is particularly importanton the Western Terrace where random developmentand encroachment is occurring on a daily basis. Thesurveywill identifythoseareassuitableforagriculturaldevelopment, principally by communal/PPP schemesbutalsoforsubsistence.DetailedmapsoftheareaswillbepreparedbytheGISUnitoftheCountyGovernments.

13.2.9 Undertake a Land Use Survey of Wetland Farming Areas and Produce Related MapsExistingwetland farming areas are adversely affectedbyreductioninriverflows,changesinfloodingregime,climatechangeandinsomeareassalinewaterintrusion.There are no accurate maps showing the extent ofaffectedareasor thebasicpatternsof landuse.A fullsurveywillbeundertakenofthelanduse,landcapacity,soilspotentialandwateravailabilityinordertoprovidemoreaccurateinformationforfutureplanninginthese

areas, including adaptation to the effects of climatechangeandsealevelrise.TheresultswillbetransferredtothedatabasemaintainedbytheGISUnitandusedforproducingup-to-datemaps.

13.2.10 Progressively Refine the Overall Land Use Classes Map for the Plan AreaThere have been no systematic mapping exercisescovering the whole of the Tana Delta, and it will benecessary to take the initial base maps generated bythe Land Use Plan process and update these as timeprogresses.

13.2.11 Make Presentations Nationally on the Need for Revisions affecting Water Resources, irrigation and Agriculture Policies, Plans, Programmes and StrategiesInthepast,manyofthekeydecisionsondevelopment,waterandlanduseaffectingtheTanaDeltaweremadebytheNationalGovernment,countycouncils,agenciesanddevelopersintheupperandmiddlepartsoftheRiverTanaBasin.TheGovernmentsofTanaRiver andLamuCounties should combine resources and seek a morepermanentvoiceinregionaldecision-makinginordertoprotectthelong-terminterestsoftheTanaDelta.

13.2.12 Create a Water-balance Model for the Plan Area with Estimates of all Current Uses and a Framework for Analysis of Future DevelopmentsA number of important scientific studies are beingundertaken within the Tana Delta by universityresearchers and a group of specialists (KENWEB)basedat theNationalMuseumsofKenya,but there isa need for a coordinated programme of hydrologicaland socio-economic research to help develop anaccurate water balance model for the whole of theDelta.ThewaterbalancemodelisneededtoassisttheCounty Governments in reaching decisions on futuredevelopmentproposalsthathavehighwaterdemands.

13.2 13 Create an Accurate Base Map using GIS for all Forest AreasThe actual extent of woodland and forest within theTanaDelta hasnot beenmapped accurately andeventheboundariesofsomegazettedandprotectedforestshave been destroyed by encroachment and deliberateclearancebydevelopers.AnimportanttaskfortheGISUnitwillbetoworkwiththeKenyaForestServiceandNationalRemotesensingcentretopreparenewmapsofallforestswithintheDelta.

13.2.14 Create Management Plans for all ForestsThe Forests Act 2005 provides for the creation ofmanagement plans, including the involvement of local communitieswho have registered as communityforest associations. Forest management plans should


be prepared for all forests within the Tana Deltain conjunction with development of the RamsarManagementPlan.

13.2.15 Introduce livestock registration (Planning Statement LM2)TheGovernmentsofTanaRiverandLamuCountieswillestablish a joint livestock registration scheme inordertoprovidemoreaccurateinformationonthenumberoflivestockandparticularlycattle,beinggrazedwithintheTanaDeltaatalltimesoftheyear.

13.2.16 Establish a Livestock CommitteeFuturemanagementof livestockwithin theTanaDeltawill require close cooperation between individualowners and herders and the regulating authorities.A formal committee shouldbe establishedby the twocountygovernmentstoprovidethislevelofcoordinationandensurethattheregulationsareactedon.

13.2.17 Develop a Livestock Management PlanEffective use of the Delta for livestock grazing willdepend in future on much better knowledge of thenumbersofanimalsinvolved,thestockingdensitiesandthecapacityandsuitabilityofdifferentgrazingareas.Inordertoguidedecision-makingalivestockmanagementplanwillbeprepared.

13.2.18 Establish a Livestock Wardening SystemLarge numbers of livestock are driven into the Deltafrom outside areas during the dry seasons and thereis a need to establish a community-based wardeningscheme,assistedbytheCountygovernments,tocheckonlivestockmovementsandnumbersofanimalssothatappropriateactioncanbetaken.

13.2.19 Identify and Map Areas used for Flood Recession FarmingFloodrecessionfarmingisalong-establishedtraditioninthe Tana Delta and provides valuable land and resources for foodproduction, although it canalsobedamagingtonatureconservation interests if the land is regularlyploughed and cultivated. More detailed informationis needed on the areas and extent of flood recessionfarmingandthiswillbecollectedduringthepreparationofruraldevelopmentplansfortheindividualsettlements.

13.2.20 Survey the Main Rivers and Establish a 500 Metre Wide Corridor on the Two Main RiversThe river corridors are important for food production(vegetables and fruit), for nature conservation and astheprincipalpointsofaccessforlivestockwatering.Fullsurveysneedtobeundertakenonthetwomainbranches(OdaandMatomba)oftheRiverTanainboththeUpperand Lower Delta for planning purposes, including the

establishmentofanenlargedprotectivebufferstrip500metreswide.

13.2.21 Identify Existing and Potential Watering Points for Cattle and undertake Consultation to Agree on Authorised access Routes for Livestock to Watering PointsThe river corridor surveys and mapping for individualRuralDevelopmentPlanswillprovidecriticalinformationtoidentifythemainwateringpointsandpinpointareasofconflictbetweenfarmersandpastoralists.

13.2.22 Undertake Topographic and Hydrological Surveys to Iidentify Suitable Areas for Community-based Irrigation SchemesThe focus of development agencies and internationalpartnersshouldbeswitchedfromlarge-scalecommercialirrigationschemes,whichhavefailedandcausedserioushardship and environmental damage in the Tana Delta in the past, to small-scale community based projects– linked with private sector partners. A first step ininitiating this more sensitive approach will involveaccuratephysicalsurveysoflowlyingareasadjacenttothemainriverswheregravityfedorpumped irrigationschemescanbeintroducedtoassistlocalcommunitiestoimproveagriculturalproductivity.

13.2.23 Establish a GIS Section within the County Planning TeamsAn urgent priority for both County Governments isto establish a properly staffed GIS unit with at leastone fully qualified GIS specialist towork full time onsurveyingandmappingtheresourcesoftheTanaDelta.

13.2.24 Set up a Monitoring Framework for Population Growth and Inward MigrationApopulationadvisoryunitshouldbeestablishedtogiveadviceonvoluntarymeansofmanagingfuturepopulationchangeandmonitortherateofinwardmigrationtotheTanaDeltawhichthreatensitslongtermsocialstructureandstability.

13.2.25 Prepare a “Development Control” Scheme for the Delta, including all the Necessary Application and Decision FormsAllof theprocedures identified in thisactionplanandinotherpartsoftheTanaDeltaLandUsePlanwillneedto be supportedwith appropriate forms for recordingapplications and decisions on planning matters. Theprocess of documentation needs to be undertaken bythe Development Control team to be established in both CountyGovernments.


13.2.26 Set up a Land Use Plan Monitoring UnitA largenumberof activitiesneed tobeundertaken inorder to make the LUP effective and thiswill requirecareful monitoring by both the staff of the CountyGovernments and National Government, but alsocommunity representatives. It is proposed that oneormore representatives of the Tana Planning AdvisoryCommittee(TPAC)shouldbeappointedtoattendinternalreviewmeetingsofthetwoCountyGovernmentstobeheldannually,andtoreportbacktothefullcommittee.

13.2.27 Set up a Climate Change and Adaptation Unit for the DeltaSignificant longtermchangesare likelytooccur intheTanaDeltaasaresultofglobalwarminganditisthereforeimportantthatthe latestevidenceandpolicyadvice isobtainedandexaminedbytherelevantauthoritiesandtheTanaDeltacommunities.TheCountyGovernmentswill appointa small team tomonitor issues relating toclimate change.


CHAPTER

14 REVISION TO NATIONAL POLICIES

14.1 Introduction SomeofthefindingsintheTanaDeltaLandUsePlanningstudypointtotheneedforrevisiontonationalpoliciesandthissectionmakesrecommendationsforsuchwork.

14.2 Water ResourcesDuringthepreparationoftheTanaDeltaLandUsePlanitwasunderstoodthattheJapaneseAidAgency,JICA,hasbeenfundingamajorreviewofwaterresourcesatnational level although no details have been available(GovernmentofKenya,2009).

Followingpublicationofthefindingsofthisreviewtherewillbeaneedforthoroughinvestigationofallproposeddevelopment within the River Tana Basin to ensurethat sufficient water can be abstracted and/or storedto meet future needs while maintaining the essentialenvironmentalreserveflowsintheRiverTana.

TheTanaDeltaLandUsePlanhasidentifiedtheneedtomaintainameanflowof60m3/secatGarsenandthiswillrequirerecalculationoftheavailableyieldandtimescalesformeetingfuturewaterdemandsinthecatchment.

14.3 IrrigationNational policies for irrigation have consistentlyunderestimated the practical constraints on achievingsuccessful projects which, in addition to hydrologicallimitations, have invariably involved weaknesses inmanagement and coordination of physical schemes.The SEA accompanying theTanaDelta LandUsePlanhas defined a number of precautionary principlesthat should be followed in the case of planning forall irrigation projects. These include the requirementthat existing schemes should be fully evaluated andreinstated wherever practicable, before embarking onnewprojects.ThetwomajorschemesinthemiddleTanacatchmentarelocatedatHolaandBuraandshouldbefullyrestoredandextendedtotheirmaximumpotentialbeforeotheroptionsareconsidered.

14.4 Transport and CommunicationsFollowingthedecisiontopromotetheLAPSSETcorridorandLamuPortthereisanurgentneedforthenationalgovernment to review the status of the existing roadfrom Nairobi through Garissa to Garsen, Malindi andLamu.ThisroadshouldbeupgradedtoaNationalrouteand given high priority for national support given itslong-termimportancetodevelopmentoftheNorthernCoastal region.


PART TWOTECHNICAL ANALYSISSCENARIOS FOR DEVELOPMENT IN THE TANA DELTA TO 2050


CHAPTER

15 SCENARIO – BUILDING

15.1 Introduction This chapter provides an introduction to the processofbuilding three scenarioswhichhelped to shape theTanaDeltaLandUsePlan.Itsetsoutthemethodologyfor constructing the current situation (baseline) andindividual scenarios.

Chapter 16 contains a description of the baseline.Chapter 17 describes Scenario A – the continuationofexisting trendsassumingcontinueddevelopmentoftraditional livelihoods.The next chapter,18, examinespotentialcommercialdevelopmentsinScenarioBwhileChapter 19describesScenarioC,whichisahybridofAandBandembracesthemostsustainableoptionsfromboth,withintheconstraintsimposedbylandandwaterresources. Each Scenario is assumed to begin in 2010 (or the closest year for which statistics are available:either 2011 or 2012), with projections to 2030 and2050.Thesetimehorizonswere recommendedby theNetherlandsCommissionforEnvironmentalAssessment.Thefirsttimehorizonistwentyyearsonfrom2010andcoincideswiththedevelopmentvisionforKenya(2030).Thesecondhorizonisafurthertwentyyearson.

METHODOLOGY15.2 The Planning FrameworkScenarios or alternative strategies are commonly usedin planning studies in order to test the plan vision, goal and objectives and ensure that the most appropriateendsolutionisadopted.ThreestrategieswereoriginallyproposedIntheTanaDeltaLandUsePlanFramework.Thesewere:A.Conservation-orientatedstrategy,B.Developmentstrategy,and,C.Community-focusedhybridstrategy.

Thejustificationforexaminingeachofthesestrategieswassetoutinthefollowingterms:

Conservation-orientated Strategy: This strategy willwork with the existing degraded environment andpatternofeconomiclanduseswithintheDeltatosecuremajor conservation gains. The process will examinewhereandwhat formof conservationorprotection isrequired, where development should be avoided andwhatmitigationisrequiredifdevelopmentoccurs.

Development Strategy: A conceptual model will bedevelopedthatacceptsthatallcurrentlandallocations– including those that are controversial and heavilydisputed by sections of the local community – willeventually be allowed to proceed. This approach willconsider what type, amount, form and location ofdevelopment might be appropriate in the absence of environmental constraints.

Community-focussed Hybrid Strategy: This strategywill contain elements of both the conservation anddevelopment strategies. This alternative will considertheinfluenceofgovernance, laws,policiesinstitutionalarrangements and capacity, human resourcerequirements and sustainable concerns to promote public dialogue.

15.3 Re-definition of the Three ScenariosAfter completing the Land Use Planning Framework,furtherdiscussionanddebatebytheLUPteamfollowedon the development of scenarios at a workshop inMalindi (6-10August 2013). An important conclusionarising from this workshop was that the use of thetitle ‘Conservation-orientated’ strategywas potentiallydivisive and likely to be misunderstood by localcommunities. This is due to the fact that previousmeasures toestablish conservationareaswereheavilycriticisedbecausetheywereperceivedtohaveexcludedthe rights of local people, whether this was actuallytrue or not (e.g. the establishment of the Tana RiverPrimateNationalReserve).Forthisreasontheconceptofaconservation-orientatedstrategywasdroppedandwasreplacedwithastrategybasedoncontinuationofexistingtraditionalpracticeswhicheffectivelyrepresentsa‘businessasusual’or‘do-nothing’scenario.Atthesametime, the principles of ecological sustainability remainhighlyrelevantsincetheyunderpintheLandUsePlan,vision and goals.

Afurthermodificationinthedevelopmentofscenarioswasthedecisiontobasethedevelopmentstrategyonnotional commercial developmentprojects rather thanactualexamples.Thereasonforthischangewastoavoidprovokingadebateaboutspecificprojectsthatmightormightnotcometofruition,andtoallowthediscussiontoconcentrateonthebroadprinciplesofwhatmakesacommercialdevelopmentprojectafullysustainableanddesirableoutcome,andthereforeworthyofinclusioninthedevelopmentPlan.


Accordingly, the three scenarios that are described inthis chapter consist of:A.ContinueddevelopmentoftraditionallivelihoodsB.CommerciallyorienteddevelopmentC.Asustainability-basedhybrid

Thischapterdescribesthebasiccharacteristicsofeachscenario without attempting to evaluate whether theproposals could actually be achieved. The process ofevaluationhasbeenundertakenintheparallelStrategicEnvironmental Assessment (SEA).

15.4 Methodology for Constructing Scenarios15.4.1 Establishing the BaselineThe first step in constructing scenarios of futureconditionswas to define the existing situation in theDelta in terms of “vegetation”, “land cover” and “landuse”. These three terms need a brief introduction.“Vegetation”simplyreferstothedominanttypeofPlant

growthinanarea(i.e.forestorgrassland).“Landcover”maybevegetativeinnaturebutherethetermreferstothepredominantphysicalsurfacesuchas‘sandyshore’or ‘water’. “Land Use” implies the principal form ofhumanactivitywithinagivenarea.TheinitialmapsfortheDelta,firstpreparedin2010,showvegetationandland cover (See Figure 15.1).

Figure 15.1(vegetationandlandcover)showstheextentofvegetation types that canbemapped fromsatelliteimagery, including Google Earth, without needingdetailed ground survey.However, a descriptionof theterrain,ascoveredby ‘thicketandscrub’or ‘floodplaingrass and woodland’, can only convey an impressionof the typical vegetation types. It does not help todeterminewhatsortoflandusesaretakingplacewithinthese broad habitat types. For this reason, a secondmap, (Figure 15.2) supported by a detailed table, hasbeenpreparedwhichdistinguishesalimitednumberofadditionalphysicalfeaturesor“landuseclasses”.

Figure 15.1 Distribution of Vegetation and Land Cover in the Delta (2010)


Figure 15.2 Land Use Classes

Figure 15.2differsfromFigure 1.1“vegetationandlandcover”inthefollowingrespects:Adistinctionismadebetween“dryland”and“wetland”farming areas in Figure 15.2. Dryland farming areascorrespondtoareasshowninFigure 15.1as“cultivationwith settlements ”which lie on the terraces on eithersideoftheDeltafloodplain.WetlandfarmingareasareshowninFigure 15.2isanewlandcovercategoryandtakesup a significant part of the lowerDelta onbothbanks of the former course of the River Tana. Thesewetland farming areas have been created in recentyears from landformerlyclassifiedas“floodplaingrassandwoodland”inFigure 15.1.Afurtherdistinctionhasbeen made in Figure 15.2betweendrylandandwetlandfarming as practised by communities and “commercialfarming”practicedbyTARDA.TheareacurrentlyfarmedbyTARDAisshowninorangeinFigure 15.2.

Four settlements are individually identified in Figure 15.2 as Garsen, Tarasaa, Witu and Kipini. The dune systems along the coast (which underlie the coastalshrubvegetation,orhaveasurfaceconsistinglargelyof

sand)havebeenidentifiedseparatelyinFigure 15.2. In all other respects thevegetation types used inFigure 15.1 have been transferred to Figure 15.2 but the areas have been simplified to make it possible to produceindicativeareaswhichcanthenbecompared infuturescenarios.

15.4.2 Definition of Vegetation Types and Land Use ClassesThe terminology in these scenarios is frequently usedelsewhere but often has subtly different meanings inother reports. Therefore, in order to avoid scope for misunderstanding, the individual vegetation and landcovertypesandlanduseclassesaresetoutbelow:

Forest: Thisappliestoallareasoftreecoverwherethecanopyisvirtuallyorcompletelyclosedandthetreesarelocatedinrelativelydryareas,whichareonlyexposedtofloodinginexceptionalcircumstances.

Riverine Forest:hasthesamemeaningas‘Forest’exceptthat the trees and other vegetation are adapted to


periodsofimmersioninstandingwaterbecausetheyaresituatedwithinthefloodplainandclosetotheRiverTanaorothermainwatercourse.

Thicket and Scrub: covers awide range of habitats inwhich individual trees, stands of trees (thickets) andlowerscrubbybushesaredispersedthroughoutvariableterrain. Some areas are very dry whereas others maylie in depressions that accumulate standing water inthewet season. The underlying soils are usually poorand infertile.Ground cover consists of sparse grasses,especiallywheresignificantgrazingtakesplacebywildherbivoresorlivestock.

Mangrove: applies to those intertidal areas wheremangrove species predominate. In some cases the entirevegetationmayconsistofdensemangroveforest.In other areas, mangrove may only be established insmallpocketsbutthegeneralareawillbeconducivetomangrove invasion.

Lake and Water Areas: are permanent or semi-permanent freshwater bodieswhere thewater depthprecludesgrazingformostoftheyearalthoughthelakemarginsmayretreatsubstantiallyinthedryseasonsandin somecases the lakemaydrycompletely indroughtyears.

Salt Ponds: are artificial enclosures that have beenformed specifically to allow for evaporation and theharvesting of salt. These are found in the extremesoutherlycorneroftheDelta.

Sandy shore: relates to the beacheswhich fringe thedunesystemalongthecoastandcoversthoseareasthatare immediately above the normal tidal range but aresubjecttoinundationinstormconditions.

Shallow Intertidal/Lagoon Waters: These areas are generally submerged by salinewater at high tide andholdwaterevenatlowtide.

Urban Areas: are settlements that have formal roadlayouts and are provided with the basic services ofelectricity andwater. These features distinguish themfromsettlementswhereaccesstracksare informalandanyservicesareminimal.

Dryland Farming:theselanduseareascoincidewiththevegetation/landcovertype‘cultivationwithsettlements’.They are typically found on better quality soilswithinthe broad ‘thicket and scrub’ vegetation zones on theterraces.Usually theareasofcultivationaredispersedwithinareasofscrubandsupportoneormorefamilieswho are either practicing shifting agriculture or areattempting to establish more permanent farmland

wherewaterisaccessible.Cropsarerain-fedandoftenfail indryyears.Consequently, settlersoften resort tocharcoalburningandfuelwoodcollectionasalternativeorsupportinglivelihoods.

Wetland Farming: These areas are found within thefloodplain of the River Tana and its laga tributaries.They are converted from existing grassland or swampandwetlandvegetationandmaybetemporaryiflandiscleared and cultivated immediately after the recessionof floodwater, or permanent where the soils retainsufficient fertility as a result of annual floodingwhichspreads silt over the land.

Commercial Farming:TARDA reclaimedan area in theupper Delta as part of its integrated rice project in the 1980-90’s and continues to manage part of this landasacommercial farmingoperationalthoughtheyieldsandmilledproductionfallwellshortoftheperformancethatwouldberequiredinanon-subsidisedcommercialoperation. There are also two very small irrigationschemes run by communities of local farmers thatmight be regarded as commercial except for the factthat produce is intended largely for local use. In thedevelopment of the Scenarios ‘Commercial’ farming istakentomeananyagriculturaloperationwhichreliesonsaleofproduceontheopenmarket.

Floodplain Grass and Woodland: This term is used in thevegetationmaptoshowallareasthatareseasonallyinundatedbyfloodwater.Thenaturalclimaxvegetationformostofthesehabitatsincludesextensivetreecover,but this has largely been cleared except along theriverbanks.

Floodplain Grassland: is used to describe those areas of thefloodplainwhichareheavilygrazedduring thedryseasonbybothwildherbivoresandlivestock.

15.4.3 Comparing Vegetation, Land Cover and Land UseTable 15.1hasbeenpreparedbasedontheinformationshowninFigures 15.1 and 15.2.Itspurposeistoshowthe comparison in surface area and overall percentages of individual land use classes. It should be noted that anew landuseclass “industry/warehousing”hasbeenaddedinanticipationofitsuseinscenariobuilding.

Figure 15.3 and Table 15.1 show those land useclasses thatcanbephysicallymapped,but thereareanumber of economic activities which do not observefixedboundariesandoccuracrossa rangeof landuseclasses. These include cattle rearing, natural resourceharvesting and charcoal and fuelwoodproduction.Toillustratethispoint,cattlegrazingisconcentratedonthefloodplaingrassandwoodlandareas inthedryseason


Table 15.1 Comparison of Areas Occupied by Vegetation, Land Cover and Land Use Classes

Figure 15.3 Land Uses and Main Economic Activities

Land Cover and Land Use Area (Km2)

Cattle Grazing

Commun

al Farming

Fishing

Natural Resou

rce Use

Charco

al & Fue

l Woo

d

Tourism

Commerce & In

dustry

Urban

Dev

elop

men

t

Forest 271

Riverine Forest 323

Thicket and Scrub 400

Mangrove 84

Water / Lakes 18

Salt Ponds 5

Dunes 103

Urban areas 14

Dryland farming 370

Wetland Farming 123

Commercial farming 31

Floodplain grassland 508

Source: Tana River Delta Land Use Plan, 2014


butmoves intothethicketandscrubzones inthewetseason.Similarly,naturalresourceusetakesplaceacrossa range of vegetation/habitat areas depending on thenatureofthematerialbeingharvested;grassandreedsforthatchingareexploitedonthefloodplain;fuelwoodand timber for charcoal burning are also exploited infloodplainwoodlands,butlargeamountsofthebiomassalso come fromdry thickets and scrub and frombothriverine and other forest areas.

Figure 15.3showsdiagrammaticallyhowsomeeconomicactivitiestakeplaceacrossdifferentlandusezones.Forobvious reasons it is impossible to attribute preciseareas to these activities. In evaluating the informationcontained in Figures 15.1, 15.2, and 15.3 and in Table 15.1 it is important to bear in mind that each form of presentation is inevitably an over-simplification ofconditions on the ground.This is because the patternof land usewithin theTanaDelta isveryvariable andchanges according to season. 15.4.4 Building the ScenariosTwo scenarios have been built on a set of commonassumptions; these are Scenario A (ContinuedDevelopmentofTraditionalLivelihoods)andScenario B (Commercial Development).

In Scenario Athebaselinepositionhasbeenextrapolatedtoshowwhattheeffectsofincreasingpopulation(fromnaturalincreaseandinwardmigration)mightbebythetwo threshold dates of 2030 and 2050. Extrapolationhasinvolvedestablishingthenumericalratiosbetweenexistingpopulationandtheareasoflandusedforspecificpurposesand thencalculating thepro rata increaseordecreaseaccordingtofuturepopulationlevels.

Scenario B (Commercial Development) takes as itsstarting point the assumptions relating to growthof population and an economy based on traditionallivelihoods as shown in Scenario A. It recognises that futuredevelopmentwill need tobeplanned tofit theactualcircumstancesprevailingintheDeltaatanygiventime, including thenumberofpeople, settlementsanddemand for natural resources. In addition, however,Scenario B anticipates a number of commercialdevelopment opportunities that have been selectedobjectively fromananalysisofdevelopmentprospectsin the region.

Noattempthasbeenmadetofactorotherconsiderationsinto the construction of either scenario – such as theavailability ofwater or anticipation of future conflictsover resources, so neither scenario represents a viable end-statebutsimplyindicatesthedirectionofpotentialgrowth. Analysis of consequences is undertakenseparatelyintheSEA.

AthirdScenario(C)–theHybrid–hasbeendevelopedbyselectingthemostsustainablecomponentsofScenariosAandBandisbasedonthefindingsoftheSEAanalysis.

15.4.5 Description of Economic ActivitiesThe process of generating descriptions of the natureand scale of potential activities in theTanaDelta hasbeenverychallenging; ithasbeennecessarytocollectenoughinformationtogiveaclearpictureofthenatureand scale of development on the one hand, but also important to avoid over-complicating the analysis ofwhat is basically an exercise in crystal ball gazing intothe future.Consequently it is important to stress thattheindividualdescriptionsofeconomicactivityprovideonlyonesnapshotviewofthemultiplicityofend-statesthatcouldbereachedin20to40yearstime.However,by combining the many different facets of land use,economic and social change the authors believe it is possibletosketchoutthechallengesandopportunitiesfortheDeltaanditscommunitiesinarealisticmannerand to provide sufficient material to inform a properdebate about the directions in which future land useplanning should go.

Indescribingindividualscenarios,anattempthasbeenmade to describe four essential characteristics, theseare: The area and extent of the development or land use activity under consideration. This has been done inwordsandbygivinganotionalareainsquarekilometres(1 km2 = 100 hectares). The area figures are notionalin the sense that there are a large number of variables which determine how much land is needed for anyactivityandthesecanonlybetreatedinasimplifiedwaywithineachscenario.

The number of peopleaffectedintermsoflivelihood and employment.Again,thefiguresareonlyapproximationsandtrytotakeintoaccountboththegainsinlivelihoods/employment from any specific land use or economicactivity but also losses, where existing users aredisplacedorhavetoberesettled.

Water Demandbasedontypicallevelsofconsumptionfortheactivityunderreview.Twotypesofestimatearegiven;thefirstistheannualconsumptioninmillionsofcubic metres (million m3).Thisfigurecanthenberelated(in the SEA analysis) to the gross yield of the RiverTanawhich is of the order of 5-7 billion cubicmetresayear(5000-7,000millionm3).Thesecondestimateisbasedon thewater demand for the particular activityover a given period of time (for example, the amountof irrigation during the 135 day growing season forvegetables)expressedastheequivalentnumberofcubicmetrespersecondflowingdowntheRiverTana.So,forexample,irrigating10,000hectaresofricewouldrequire


reserves of 70 million m3 of water in a year, but theconcentration of this demand into a 150 day growingseasonwouldneedmostofthiswatertobeavailableattheheightofthedryseason,necessitatingthediversionof around 20,000 m3ofwateradayor5.4m3/secfromtheRiverTana.

ValueofProductionhasbeenindicatedinaverysimplewayas thegross turnoverofabusinessor themarketpriceforacommodity.Thisassessmentdoesnotattempttoexaminethecostsofproduction,inputs,grossmarginsoranyoftheothereconomicindicatorsthatareneededtoassess theefficiencyorprofitabilityof thebusinessenterprise.Itspurposeisonlytoshowtherelativescaleoftheeconomicinvestmentand,byinference,thelevelof

returnthatmightbeexpected.Foreachofthescenarios,economiccostshavebeenattributedfromlocalsourceswheretheseareavailable.Thishasmadeitpossibletogenerateafigureofaround50-60%ofthevalueofthelocal economy. However there are some sectors forwhichlocaldataisnotavailableincludinginfrastructuredevelopment, transport, construction, and public andprofessionalservices.Inordertoincorporateestimatesfor thesesectors the localeconomyfigureshavebeenscaledupusingthesameproportionsthat themissingsectorsmaketothenationaleconomy,asmeasured inthe2011NationalAccounts.

Tables 15.2- 15.4 illustrate the process for Scenario A data.

Table 15.2 Contributions to Gross Domestic Product in 2011 (National Accounts) 1


Table 15.3 Elements of the Economy Estimated from Available Local Data

15.4.6 Levels of AccuracyScenariosspanningtimehorizonsof20and40yearsmustinevitablybebasedonverywide rangingassumptionsandthereisnosenseinwhichtheycanberegardedasgiving an accurate picture. Instead their purpose is to illustratelikelytrends.

Many calculations have been employed in building upeachscenario.Ineachcasetheexactfiguresresultingfrom the calculation have been used – even thoughthismayappeartogiveanunrealisticlevelofaccuracy.However, rounding and averaging results would havemade the taskofcross-referencingbetween the threescenarios more difficult so the reader should bear inmind that all figures are no more than very generalapproximations.

15.4.7 Use of Information Contained in the ScenariosAll of the information that has been included in thedescriptionofthescenarioshasbeenassembledforthespecificpurposeofprojectingfuturechangeintheTanaDelta. This has been done by taking firm informationabouttheDeltawhereverpossibleandextrapolatingto2030and2050.The results have alsobeen testedbycomparing findings from other published studies, as aformoftriangulation,andhavebeenfoundtobebroadlycompatible for the purpose of this assessment.Whilethe resulting descriptions are regarded as sufficientlyaccuratetomeettheneedsoftheLandUsePlanandSEAtheyshouldnotbetransposedtootherstudieswithoutfirstcheckingthevalidityoftheunderlyingassumptions.

Method: Elements of the local economy estimated from local data amount to KSh 6,962 million in 2050. This represents 56.2% of the overall local economy (based on equivalent data for the National Economy). Each of the missing elements (shaded grey) is estimated, pro-rata, and incorporated in a final table (15.4)


Table 15.4 The Completed Model of the Local Economy for Scenario A in 2050


CHAPTER

16 EXISTING SITUATION (Conditions in 2010)

16.1 IntroductionThis description of the baseline conditions provides asummaryofsalientfactsdrawnfromtheSEABaselineReport(Odhengoetal,inpress)andLUPBaselineReport(Odhengo et al, in press). The full reports should be consultedforadetailedaccountofexistingconditionsinthePlanArea.Itisimportanttonotethatthe‘PlanArea’referstotwodistinctareas.Theseare:1. “the Delta”,whichincludestheUpperDeltabetween

the Tana River Primate Reserve and Garsen-WituRoadandtheLowerDeltawhichextendsfromtheGarsen –Witu Road to the sea; the Lower Deltacoincides very closelywith the boundaries of theRamsarsitedesignation.and,

2. The “buffer zone”, which includes all rangelandextendingupto20kilometresfromtheboundariesof the Delta.

ThemainfocusofattentionisontheUpperandLowerareas of the Delta, where future land use, social andeconomic changes are likely to have the greatestimpacton theDelta’sbiodiversity,butsome landuses– particularly grazing and charcoal burning – makeextensiveuseofthebufferzoneaswell.Consequentlysome of the policies that are developed in the LandUsePlanwillneedtopayparticularattentiontothesecharacteristics.

16.2 PopulationThepopulationof theDelta (as opposed to thewiderareaoftheBufferZone)isestimatedtobe102,000,with65,000 living on the drier terrace areas, 35,000 people living in the floodplain and fewer than 2,000 peopleliving on the coast (Odhengo et al, 2014b).

16.3 Economic ActivityThemainlivelihoods,asrecordedintheLUPFrameworkReport,arebasedon: 1.Livestockrearing2.Farming3.Fishing4.Bee-keeping5.HarvestingofNaturalResources6. Tourism7.Trade-WholesaleandRetail-CommerceandFinancialServices

8.Mining&Industry-MiningandQuarrying-Manufacturing9.Infrastructure-Services-Transport10.AdministrationandProfessionalServices11.UrbanAreas12. Water13.NatureConservation 16.4 Livestock16.4.1 Area and ExtentLivestock rearing andmanagement occurs throughoutthe Plan Area with cattle, goats, sheep and a smallnumberofcamelsbeinggrazedinopengrassland,scrub,thicket and forest margins and on agricultural landaftercropshavebeenharvested.Therearenoaccuratestatistics for the numbers of animals kept by eachhousehold and, in practice, numbersvary fromoneortwocattleforpoorfamiliestomanythousandsheldbyextremelyrichindividuals.Forcomparativepurposesinexaminingdifferent scenarios, thenumberof livestockhasbeendividedbythenumberofestimatedpastoralisthouseholds in 2010 (9,942) (Odhengo et al, 2013) to produce average figures of livestock per household(9,942).TheresultsareshowninTable 16.1.

Table 16.1 Number of Animals per Household (2010)

Cattle rearing: Theestimates for thenumberof cattleper household generated in Table 16.2 have been comparedwiththefindingsofasurveyofcattlekeepingpracticesbytheOrmaintheTanaRiverDistrict(Irungu,2000).Thisstudyinvolvedin-depthinterviewswith48headmen (25 Orma, 21 Wardei and 2 others). Although thestudyismorethan12yearsoldthecharacteristicsandculturalpracticesofthecommunitiesareunlikelytohavechangedsignificantlyintheinterveningyears.TheaveragenumberofcattleheldbyeachOrmahouseholdwas124whiletheaverageforWardeihouseholdswas


192, with an overall range between 10 and 500 perhousehold.EventhesefiguresweredescribedbyIrunguas likely to be under-estimates because “Most of the pastoralists were reluctant to give the exact number of cattle under their ownership. They indicated that counting the cattle was likely to bring them bad luck. Livestock were counted only in preparation for zaka (tithe)”.

Iftheaveragesidentifiedinthisrelativelysmallsampleof48areappliedtothe9927pastoralhouseholdsinthewholeoftheTanaDelta,thiswouldsuggestthattherearebetween1.23and1.9millionheadofcattle.Thisfigureis greatly inexcessof thegenerally acceptedestimatefor themaximumnumberof cattle in theDeltawhichis quoted as 600,000 in the Tana Delta Conservationand Development Master Plan (Nature Kenya, 2010).ThisfigurewasbasedondatacollectedbyMinistryofLivestock,TanaRiverDeltaDistrict.

Another sourceof informationbasedonactual countsisprovidedby(Temper,2011)whoundertookasurveyofBandivillage (closetoHewani),anOrmasettlementof 204 houses comprising 1000 people, and arrived at an average of 50 head per household,while (Luke,2005)concludedthattheaveragenumberofcattleperhouseholdinOrmavillageswasaround100.

Animportantconsiderationinreviewingthisevidenceisthetendencyforthe‘average’representingthesumofallvaluesdividedbytwo,toskewnumbersinfavouroftherelativelyfewverylargeherdsofover500animals.Mean figures may give a more accurate guide to thetotalnumberofcattlebutthesearenotreadilyavailable,although Temper notes that the mean for her data setwas 15 animals per household comparedwith theaverageof50.TherangeofestimatesforthenumberofcattleintheDeltaisshowninTable 16.2.

It is not possible to determine the absolute number of cattleintheTanaDeltawhichvariesseasonallyandwiththeinwardandoutwardmigrationofherds,butitisclearthatthenumberissignificantlyhigherthantheestimate

Sample size Average per household (HH)

Grossed up to cover the Delta (9942 HH)

Source

District statistics 21 222,858 LUP Baseline 48 HH 124, Orma 192

Wardei 1.23-‐1.9 million Irungu (2000)

100 HH 50 Orma 497,125 Temper (2011) Not known 100 Orma 994,250 Luke (2005)

in Table 16.1. Taking the official district figures andgrossingtheseupfortheDeltagiveswhat is regardedasthelowerestimateforthenumberofcattleinthewetseasonof213,000head.Inthedryseason,thepotentialnumber of cattle may rise to between 497,000 and1.9millionaccording to thedifferentestimates shownin Table 16.2. The highest figure appears unrealistic,so averaging the four remaining estimates (222,858;497,125;994,250and1.23million)generatesafigureofaround735,000.

The LUP/SEA calculations are accordingly set in therange of a base level of 220,000 head rising to 735,000 cattle at peak.

Grazing Areas:Cattle,otherlivestockandwildherbivoresgrazeallaccessibleareasoftheTanaDeltaandthebufferzone. The only areas that receive little or no grazinginclude dense forest, permanently flooded swamps,mangroveandotherimpenetrablehabitat,amountingtobetween5-10%oftheDelta.Farmingareasreceiveverylow levels of grazing unless crops are invaded duringdroughtsorfarmersallowgrazingtointroducemanuretofallowareas(Odhengoetal,2014a).

Thicket and scrub are invariably heavily grazed,especiallyinthedryseason,buttheslowgrowthratesof shrubs and grasses, due to dry and infertile soils,means that the nutritionvalues are low.The principalgrazingareasarefoundonthewetgrasslandwithinthefloodplains,amountingtobetween70,000and100,000hectares(dependingonrainfallvariationandtheextentoffloodingfromyeartoyear).

Inordertoprovidea‘constant’formeasuringtherelativeperformance of each scenario the figure of 220,000cattle grazing 100,000ha of floodplain at the start ofthedryseasonhasbeenusedtocreateastandardof2.1cattleperhaintherichwetgrasslandsandscrubofthefloodplain.ForthicketandscrubareaswithintheDeltaandalsothebufferzone,thestandardof1headofcattleper three hectares has been adopted.

Table 16.2 Sources of Information on Cattle Numbers in the Delta


Cattle play a dominant role in livestock rearing inthe Tana Delta but other livestock including sheep,goats and camels are also significant grazers. In orderto standardise grazing pressure amongst differentherbivores, the convention ofTropical LivestockUnits(TLU)hasbeenadopted,underwhichamaturecamelisgiventhescoreof1;atypicalcoworsteeris0.7,whilesheep and goats score 0.1 each (Odhengo et al 2014a). WithamixedherdorflockofanimalstheoverallnumberofTLUcanbearrivedatbysummingindividualscores.So,agroupoffivecamels(5),twentycattle(14)and100sheepandgoats(10)represents29TLUs.

16.4.2 Water DemandThe cattle found in the Tana Delta include Zebu andBoranbreedswhichareadaptedtotheoftenharshandarid conditions (Odhengo et al, 2014a). These animals cansurvive forextendedperiodswithvery littlewateralthough they rapidly lose condition (Odhengo et al, 2014a).Normal daily intakewhenwater is available is12-20litresforbullsandsteers.Lactatingcowsrequiresubstantiallymore.Sheepandgoatsrequirelessthantenpercentoftheintakeofcattle(Odhengoetal,2014a).Basedonthesefigures,waterdemandinthewetseasonwould be around 3.5 – 4 million m3. Consumption indrought conditions probably exceeds 11,000m3 /daywhen the full complement of 735,000 cattle is in theDelta.

16.4.3 Employment and LivelihoodsEmployment Income: Irungu (2000) notes that themajorityofcattleownerspayherders(menandboys)inkindratherthancash,soaherderwilltypicallyreceivea castratedmale, a calf or more rarely, a cow once ayear–or aproportionof themilkproduced.Theonlyreferencewhichhasbeenfoundtodirectcash incomeisafigurequotedintheManagementPlanforArabuko-Sokoke Forest (2002)which is KSh 24,874 per ha forrearinganimals.This isassumedtorelatetosedentarylivestockrearing.Ithasbeenassumedforthepurposesof the scenarios that one full time herder is requiredfor every 100 head of cattle, although in practice thenumberofyouthsandyoungboysaccompanyingherdsvariesgreatlysinceitispartofthewayoflife.

16.4.4 Economic ValueCattle sales:Intermsofmarketing,Irungu’ssurvey(2000)providesthemostdetailed information.Thetotalherdowned by the 48 households is assumed to be 7,380basedontheaveragesquoted.Intheyearprecedingthesurvey 412 animals (6%of the stock)were purchasedat a cost of Ksh1.77 millionwhile 726 animals (9.8%of the stock)were sold at a price of Ksh14.4million.The increased value (through fattening and maturing)amountedtoKsh12.63millionorKsh1,711perheadforeach animal in the herd.

Ifthisleveloftrading(i.e.buyinginyoungstocktofattenand strengthen the gene pool and selling mature animals) appliedthroughouttheTanaDeltathiswouldsuggestanannualturnover(fromtradingalone)ofKsh1,258million(14.8millionUSD).

AnotherapproachforassessingcattletradingactivityintheDeltaistoexaminefiguresforlivestocksalesattheGarsenDivisionmarkets(Odhengoet al,2013).In2009,the total number of cattle soldwas 19,028 (Odhengoet al,2013).AtanaveragemarketpriceofKSh12,000thisrepresentsaturnoverofKSh228million.Livestockandmeatpricesvarysignificantlybetweenseasonsandduringdroughtconditions.

There is clearly a significant gap between these twofigures for trading output (1.26 billion comparedwith228 million) but it must be recalled that the Ormas’primaryinterestincattlehasdeepseatedculturalrootsand there is a strong reluctance to sell animals or to slaughterthemexceptforweddingfeastsandfunerals.Consequentlythefirstfigure,atoverKsh1billion,mayindicate internal tradingwithin the Delta designed toincreasethesizeofherds,andincreaseownershipevenamongst the poorest households, while the secondrepresentstheoff-salesforexportinganimalstooutsidemarkets. Nature Kenya (2008) calculated that the200,000 cattle that graze the area of the floodplainconsidered for sugarcane production have a marketvalueofKSh1billionwhilethegrazingvalueofthisareaexceedsKsh100million.

Milk production: The average yield per lactating cowis around 1.8 litres a day in the Delta and 1.0 litresin surrounding areas (Irungu, 2000). Milk is retainedeitherforfeedingcalvesorforfamilyconsumptionandarelativelysmallsurplus issold.The48households inthesurveykeptanaverageof12milkingcowsyielding19.5 litres for human consumption. With a mean of17membersperhouseholdthisprovided0.5litresperpersonper day. Friendsor relatives received1.2 litresperdayleaving2.8litresforsale.Thefigureforhumanconsumptionof0.5litresperdayperpersonisconfirmedbyTemper(2011).

Onthebasisofthefiguresquotedabove,salesofmilkfrom9,927householdswouldamounttoaround27,795litresadaywithavalueofKsh834,000ata farmgateprice of 30Ksh.

SheepandGoats:TheseanimalsplayavitalroleinfoodsupplytohouseholdsintheTanaDeltaandsurroundingrangelands because they can tolerate drier conditionsthan cattle and survive on less productivevegetation.In2006,a totalof4,670sheepand5,377goatsweresoldfromGarsenDivision,representingavalueofKsh


20-30million(Odhengoet al,2013).Thisfiguregrosslyundervalues the number of sheep and goats bartered within thecommunitiesonaday todaybasiswithoutinvolvingtradersandformalmarkets.

Ranching:FiveofthemajorranchesintheregionliewithintheDeltaPlanBufferZone,twoofwhichextendintothecoreareaontheterracesbetweenIdsoweandTarasaa.Asixthranchlieswhollywithinthesouthernfloodplain.According to theLUPBaselineReport (Odhengoet al, in press) the ranches were established to encouragelocal communities toget involved inmodern livestockproduction and development on a commercial basis.However, the plan to transform these parcels of landfrom subsistence production to commercial ranchinghas not been successful. Apart from Ida-sa-Godana,whichhassomecattle;theresidentcommunitiesontheranches have reverted to non-commercial pastoralismbased on goats and sheep. Ida-sa-Godana is currentlygrazedwithasmallnumberofcattle(240),goats(112)andsheep(128).

16.5 Farming16.5.1 Area and ExtentStatisticalinformationonfarmingcomesfromtheformerTana Delta District Development Plan (2008-2012).This covered a very much larger area than the TanaDelta includingallofGarsenDivisionwhich lay largelyoutsidetheDeltaandmuchoftheBufferZone.Thetwodivisionswith information relevant to the core of theDelta are Tarasaa and Kipini covering an area of 1600 Km2comparedwiththeareaincludedwithintheDeltaPlanof2,250Km2.ThefiguresquotedforTarasaaandKipiniintheLUPBaselineReport(Odhengoet al, 2013) havebeenscaleduptoproduceamoreaccuratespatialassessment.Basedonthisanalysisanewtablehasbeen

formedtogivespatialdimensionsforagricultureintheDelta (see Table 16.3).

This analysis suggests that roughly half the Plan area(48%)couldberegardedassuitable forarable farmingland (equivalent to cultivation with settlements) orrangeland (equivalent to thicket and scrub). Althoughthe potential for farmingmay be as high as 50%, thismustbecomparedwiththecurrentlevelofarableandcultivatedlandwhichisshownaslessthan25%inTable 16.3.

The remaining half of the Delta consists of a varietyof natural and semi-natural habitats (forest, riverineforest,wetgrassland,marshoropenwater).However,inpractice,itislikelythatallbutthemostimpenetrableareas of forest orwetland are modified by grazing atsometimeorotherbylivestockandwildanimals,orareexploitedfornaturalmaterialsbythelocalcommunities.

16.5.1.1 Area and Types of FarmingFarming practice includes permanent arable and fruitgrowingareasaroundsettlements,smallirrigatedareas,temporary slash and burn for rain-fed cultivation, andareasoffloodrecession farmingwhere land isplantedafterthefloodwatershavereceded.Theseareascannotbe mapped with precision from air photographs andsatelliteimagerywithoutveryhighlevelsofinvestmentin data and analysis coupledwith confirmation of theresultsbygroundtruthsurveys.Forthepurposesofthisstudy,theareasoffarmlandhavebeenidentifiedfromexistingmapsandbyinterpretinglandcoverasdisplayedon‘googleearth’.TheresultsareshowninTable 16.3.

The area currently farmed (wet and dry farming)or covered by thicket and scrub and equivalent torangeland is estimated from mapping sources to be

Table 16.3 Recalculation of Farming Areas in the Tana Delta


89,300hectareswhichrepresents39.7%ofthetotal.Inpracticepartsofthefloodplaingrasslandcouldalsobeconvertedtotemporaryfarmlandwhichwouldraisethepercentageabove40%.Thesefiguresmaybecomparedwith thefigurequoted for theTarasaadistrictof44%,or thefigureof 53%generatedby including themorefertileandheavilycultivatedareaofKipinidistrict,andtheoverallsummaryof49%inTable 16.3.

Forthepurposeofbuildingscenariosamid-rangefigureof45%hasbeenadopted.

16.5.1.2 Subsistence CultivationTaking thederivedestimate for thearea inpermanentcultivation(6,147hectares)anddividingthisby19,885whichrepresentsthenumberofhouseholdspresentintheDeltain2010,generatesafigureof0.3ha(0.75acres)perhousehold.ThiscalculationmakesnoallowanceforthefactthatmostOrmasettlementshavefewerareasofpermanentcultivationbycomparisonwiththePokomovillages (although this situation is changingquite fast).Thepopulationissplitroughly50/50betweenthetwoethnic groups (44% Orma, 44% Pokomo; 12% other)soifthenumberofhouseholdsholdingcultivatedlandis halved, the average distribution per household ofcultivatedlandbecomes0.6hectares(1.5acres).Theseestimatescanbecomparedwithasurveyundertakenof9householdsinVumbwe,aPokomovillageadjacenttotheTARDARiceirrigationprojectarea,whichrecordedanaverageof2.2–3acres(1ha)perfamily,rangingfromhalf an acre to 4 acres per household (Temper, 2012). Forthepurposesofdevelopingtheoverallbaselineandscenariosafigureof1.5acreshasbeenadoptedastheaverage land holding per household.

16.5.1.3 Fruit FarmingExisting fruit production is based on harvesting fromindigenousforesttreesandsmallriver-sideplantationsowned by individual households. Production hasdeclined dramatically in recent decades due to lowerwater levels in the River Tana.Mango trees originallyproduced 50001 fruits per tree. This has dropped to less than500onaverage.BananaPlantationshavealsobeenreducedinsize(Diwayuperscomm).

16.5.1.4 Food ReliefIt is important tonote that thepopulation in theTanaDelta is not self-sufficient in food. For much of theyear,foodreliefisprovidedtobetween10-15%ofthepopulation under the Government’s PRRO/Food forAssets programme. In times of flood or drought this

proportionrisesandinJune2012,forexample,15,700people in the Tana Deltawere given food out of thetotaldistributionto63,372peopleinTanaRiverCounty(NationalDroughtManagementAuthority,2012).

16.5.2 Water DemandTwoirrigationschemesareoperationalwithintheTanaDelta,namelyTARDA’s integrated riceprojectand theHewani and Wema settlement irrigation scheme asshownbelowinTable 16.4.Actualproductiondataisnotavailable so average figures for productionwithin theformer Tana Delta District have been used to complete the table.

IRRIGATION SCHEME

CROP AREA (ACRES)

PRODUCTION1

(Tonnes) VALUE (USD)

TARDA RICE 200 297.5 226,100

HEWANI & WEMA RICE 135 200.8 152,608

Table16.4: Irrigation Schemes

The chequered history of theTARDA rice project hasbeen described in the SEA Baseline Report (Odhengoetal,2012c)andalthoughproductionlevelsandyieldshaveimprovedinrecentyearstheprojecthassufferedin the past from repeated damage and erosion from flooding, poor management, inappropriate applicationofinputsandpoorlymaintainedmachinery.

Hewani (and Wema) irrigation schemes are operatedby the communities with a total membership of 283individuals, although 3000 people depend on rice productionfortheirmainsustenance2.

16.5.3 Employment and LivelihoodsSubsistence farming is geared entirely towardsproviding food for the households involved, although small amounts of produce are traded or bartered for otherprovisionswithineachsettlement.Casuallabourisprovidedbyallactivehouseholdmembersatharvestingandotherbusyperiodsbut thenumberof permanentjobs/livelihoodssupportediscalculatedonthebasisthattwo (female)membersofeachhouseholdareengagedfulltimeintendingtheirholdings.

16.5.4 Economic ValueTherearenonationaleconomicstatisticsforsub-areasthe size of theTanaDelta, but taking the 2010-2011crop production data for Tana Delta from the LUPBaseline Report, the gross value of certain crops has

1This figure relates to old trees of indigenous varieties that grow to great size and are much larger than the new imported varieties bred for use in orchards. 2Wema and Hewani Villages Business Plan; Nature Kenya, April 2012


beencalculatedusingFoodandAgricultureOrganization(FAO) national statistics for Kenya (See Table 16.6). There is some discrepancy between the area shownunder crops in Tables 16.3 and 16.6,butthetwosetsoffiguresliewithinthesameorderofmagnitudeandhaveprobablybeencompiledfromdifferentsurveys.Averagevalueofcropsperhectareemergesas1,334USD.

The Management Plan for Arabuko-Sokoke Forestquotedfarmers’earningsasKSh10,007perhectareforcropproductionin2001.Takingtheaverageof1.5acresper household for 9927 households (equalling 14,890acres/6204Ha)intheDeltagivesanagrossincome,at2001prices,ofKSh62million.Allowingforinflationat5%perannumthisyieldsanequivalentfigureofKSh96million in 2010.

An alternative way of estimating the value of foodproduced for subsistence is to apply the nominal‘income’ of 1 US Dollar a day per household to thefarming communitywithin theTanaDelta andassumethat 60%of this is spent on foodwhich is equivalenttoKSh18,400ayear.TheresultsareshownbelowandsuggestahighervalueofKSh183millionmaybemoreappropriate.

Description/Year 2010 Population 102000 All Households (5.2 occupants) 19885 Number of Farming Households 9927 Land Area (Ha) at 1.5 acres/HH 6,204 FTE Jobs/Livelihoods 12,409 Value of agricultural production KSh million (at 2001 prices) 62

Table 16.5 Summary of Farming Information in 2010

Table 16.6: Estimate of Crop Values in 2010-2011

CROP AREA (HA)

PRODUCTION-‐(90kg bags) /Tonnes

YIELD / Hectare (Tonnes)

PRICE USD / Tonne

GROSS VALUE

MAIZE 4,043 (39,919) / 3592 0.9 217 779,464 RICE 1,680 (66,626) / 5996 3.6 760 4,556,960 COWPEAS 899 (4,815) / 433 0.5 664 287,512 GREENGRAMS 635 (7,441) / 670 0.95 820 549,400 CASSAVA 79 6,940 Tonnes 87.8 111 770340 COTTON 1,086 1,599 Tonnes 1.5 1,823 2,913,378 TOTAL 7,336 9,857,054

Source: Production figures (DAO, Tana Delta); Value (FAOSTAT/LUP/SEA estimates)Note: Data on GreenGram prices from the Tana Delta Research Team average 470-1170 USD according to season.

Assessment Criteria 2010 All Households in Delta 19,885 Farming HH in the Delta 9,943 Nominal value of food produced KSh Million 183

16.6 Fishing16.6.1 Area and ExtentFishing is an important source of food and proteinformany families in the Delta, but especially the Luocommunity who introduced improved fishing skills tothearea.Fishingtakesplaceincoastalwaters,themainriver and subsidiary channels and open water bodiesincluding ox-bow lakes (former rivermeanders cut offfromthemainchannel).Inaddition,aquacultureisbeingintroduced,involvingrearingoffishinbothnaturalandartificially constructed ponds. Table 16.7 shows theaverageannualproductionbyspeciesin2007.

Local marine fisheries are limited to waters close to shore, while foreign fishing fleets catch more valuable fish further out to sea.


Table 16.7: Fish Types and Production

FISH TYPE CATCH/ PRODUCTION (Kg) Tilapia 76,601 Clarias 159,549 Protopterus 63,060 Cat fish 44,992 Marine species 221,168 Others 46,621 Total weight 613,003 Total value (Ksh) 53,136,500

16.6.2 Water DemandGoodqualitywaterisessentialtomaintainhealthyfishpopulationsintheriverchannelsandox-boxlakeswithintheDelta.Unfortunately, conditionshavedeterioratedoverthelastfourdecadeswiththebuildingofdamsintheuppercatchmentoftheRiverTana.Inparticular,thereductioninseasonalfloodinghasseverelyaffectedfishbreedingsincefishspawninshallowwaters.

Marine fisheries are largely unaffected by inland riverwaterqualityalthoughthedecrease insiltandorganicsediment loadmayhave localised impacts.Changestoinshore hydrology may also affect marine species likeshrimpwhich breed and feed inMangrove swamps intheir juvenile stages (Knoop, 2012).

16.6.3 Employment and LivelihoodsFishing is typically carried out by men and youths indugoutcanoesontheriversystemorusingsmalldhowsin open sea. Netting, traps and spearing are used tocatch freshwater fish and these operations usuallyinvolveonlyoneortwoindividuals.Basedontheannualcatches in recent years it is estimated that between250-500individualsfishoninlandwatersandcloserto

200fishersengageinseafishingclosetoshore.Thesefiguresarebasedonanaveragecatchof3-5kgperfisheron250daysintheyear(Odhengoet al, 2013).

16.6.4 Economic ValueTable 16.7 indicates that the larger proportion of theannual catchcomes from inlandfisheries (391,000kg)comparedwith 221,000 kg from the sea. The overallvalue of fish landed in 2007 was KSh 53.14 million(Odhengo et al, 2014a).

16.7 Bee KeepingBeekeepingforthedomesticorcommercialproductionofhoneyisanimportanteconomicactivitycarriedoutinthe Tana Delta.

16.7.1 Area and ExtentBeesforageforhoneywhereverflowersgrowinprofusionandinthecoastalregion,mosthoneyisrecoveredfromtrees.Much of the current beekeeping occurs aroundthe riverine area where nectar is more abundant.Thenumberofhivesfluctuates fromyear toyear. It isgenerally believed that the Delta has the potential toaccommodate more hives as there is an abundance of suitablefloweringspecies,ensuringcontinuity infloralresourcesforthebeesthroughouttheyear.ProductionlevelsareshowninTable 16.8.

16.7.2 Water DemandBeesrequireasubstantialamountofwater inordertodilutestoredhoneyandtoprovidecoolingair throughevaporation ofwater in order to prevent combs frommelting in hotweather (Knoop, 2012). The quantitiesinvolvedareneverthelessverysmallinrelationtootherland uses.

Types of hives Estimated number of hives

2006 2007 2008 Estimated yield in 2008 (Kg)

Kenya top bar hives 300 50 350 3500-‐5250

Langstroth 700 400 1,100 11000-‐16500

Traditional hives 6,500 4,200 10,700 53,500-‐74900

TOTALS 7,500 4,650 12,150 68,000-‐96,650

Table 16.8: Bee Keeping for Honey Production in Tana Delta District (2006-2008)

Source: District Fisheries Office, Tana Delta 2007

Source: Number of Hives – (Ministry of Livestock Development, Annual Report 2008). Production Estimates (LUP/SEA)


16.7.3 Employment and LivelihoodsOne beekeeper can manage ten colonies of bees inaddition to carrying out other subsistence farmingactivities. To create a viable business giving full timeemployment requires around 50 hives, producing 500litres/kgofhoney.Inpracticemostbeekeeperswillusehoneyproductiontoprovidecashandsupplementotherlivelihoods.Theoutput in2008wouldsupportaround140FTEsor1400parttimebeekeepers.

16.7.4 Economic ValueTheLangstroth(American)HivethathaslargelyreplacedtheKenyanTopBarHive,isthemostefficientandaveragehoneyyieldsperhiveareintheregionof10-15Kg.Bycomparison,thetraditionallongwallhive,providesyieldsof5-7Kg.TotalvalueofhoneyproducedinTanaRiverDistrictin2006-2008wasKSh20-29million,(basedonKSh300perlitre/kg).

16.8 Natural ResourcesFive sources of data have been used to make thisanalysis in addition to the community survey resultsundertakenaspartoftheLUP/SEA.Theseare (Mbuvi,2004), (Matiku,2004), (Temper,2011), (ASFMT,2002)and(UNEP,2011).

TheworkbyMbuviforWWFconcentratesonaliteraturereview, Rapid Trade Appraisal Survey, interviews andanalysisofthe82,500hectaresofcoastalforest(9%ofCoastal Region).Temper’s data is drawn from detailedvillagesurveys for twocommunities in theTanaDelta,supported by literature research. In addition to thesesources direct evidence has been provided by localcommunityrepresentativesespeciallyTPACmembers.Asummaryofthekeyfindingsisgivenfirst,underthesub-headings forarea,extent,waterdemand,employment,livelihoods and economic value. This summary isfollowed by detailed descriptions for gathering edibleand craftproducts, house construction and repair andcharcoalandfuelwoodcollectioninsub-sections16.8.5to16.8.7.

16.8.1 Area and ExtentThe land use zones from which most raw materialsare harvested are forests, riverine forests, floodplaingrassland and mangroves (extending to 1,186 km2), althoughthicketandscrubalsocontributessignificantlyto charcoal and fuelwoodproduction (Odhengoet al, 2012a).

16.8.2 Water DemandAlmost all natural resource products are derived from vegetation and so the supply and quality of the rawmaterial is heavily dependent on availability of waterduringthegrowingseasons.Manyofthehabitatshave

been severely stressed by lack ofwater in recent dryyearswhendroughtshavebecomemoreprolonged.Thevolumeofwater required tomaintainnatural resourceproduction has been assessed as a component of the‘environmentalreserve’insection2.13.

16.8.3 Employment and LivelihoodsThere isnodataonthenumberofpeoplewhocollectnatural materials in the Tana Delta, so it has been necessarytobuildupanestimatebasedontheknownactivities undertaken bymost communities. Estimateshave been calculated for gathering edible and craftproducts, house construction and repair and charcoalandfuelwoodcollection.Forcomparativepurposesitisassumedthatharvestingforfourhouseholdsrepresentstheequivalentofonefulltimeoccupation.Accordingly,around 4,700-5,000 full time equivalent jobs (FTEs)are created in harvesting edible products, craft andother natural resources. A further 540-725 full timejobsarecreatedbyhousebuildingandrepair,togetherwith5,000jobsincharcoalmanufactureandfuelwoodcollection. The total number of livelihoods supportedbynaturalresourcesisestimatedtobeintheregionof10,000-12,000.

16.8.4 Economic ValueThe annual income generated from the three main sourcesofnaturalproductsissummarisedbelow:GatheringedibleandcraftproductsKSh80millionHousingconstructionandrepair KSh100millionCharcoalandfuelwood KSh153-236millionTotal KSh 333- 416 million

16.8.4.1 Edible and Craft ProductsThiscategoryofrawmaterialscoversproductsthatarenotusedinhouseconstructionorinprocessingcharcoalandfuelwood. Itrelateslargelytocollectionoffruits,nuts,edibleplantmaterial(rootsandtubers),wildhoney,bushmeat, insects and other products listed in Table 16.9whichisnotcompletebutgivesanoverviewofthevalue of natural habitats. The table combines data from thesourcesquotedintheintroductionto16.8.

Attribution of economic values to non-timber forestproducts(NTFPs)isnoteasysincemuchoftheharvestingactivity is notmonitored and produce is bartered andconsumedlocally.Whereapricecanbeestablished,forexamplethroughsaleofmushroomsorfruitsinalocalmarket,itisoftendifficulttoassessthevolumeoftrade.Thesefigurescanbeestablishedthroughdirectinterviewin specific locations but the results cannot readily betransferredtootherareas.Neverthelessit is importanttoincludeestimatesfornaturalresourceuseintheTanaDelta since this represents one of the most important ecosystemservicesandliterallysustainsthelivelihoods


of themajorityof the inhabitants.Forexample,withinthe Orma communities almost all building materials(poles/thatching reeds and grass/mud/skins) utensils(wood),foodandwaterarederivedfromtheimmediatesurroundingsofthesettlements.

The Management Plan for Arabuko-Sokoke Forest(2001) notes that an individual can earn KSh 16,000 a year from harvesting non timber forest products(NTFPs).Assumingthat1 in4households intheDeltahaveatleastonememberwhocollectstheseproductswouldyieldaNTFPandwetlandresourcevalueofKsh80million.

16.8.4.2 HousingAsnotedabove,mosthousing(especiallyintheremoterareasoftheTanaDelta)isstillbuiltwithnaturalmaterialsanddatahasbeenobtainedonconstruction,materials,

costs and labour in order to value these resources. Table16.10showstherelevantinformationforPokomohouses (which are larger and more permanent thanOrma designs).

Table 16.11givesinformationforOrmaproperties.Thereareanestimated9,943Pokomohouseholdsandasimilarnumber of Orma households, with the total housingstockapproaching20,000dwellingsalmostallofwhichare built by traditional methods. For the purposes ofestimatingtotalconsumptionandvalueofrawmaterialsitisassumedthatthenumberofnewhousesbuilteachyearmatchestherateofhouseholdformationbasedongrowthofpopulation.Thisequatestoaround300newhousesayearinboththePokomoandOrmapopulation(600intotal).Atthesametimeallowancehasbeenmadefor maintenance and replacement of existing housingstock.

Product/ Trade Activity Value / Item Butterfly pupae rearing Butterfly exhibits Snake venom extraction 100/-‐ (puff adder) Falconry rearing Honey extraction 150/-‐ per litre Firewood extraction 20/-‐ a bundle Charcoal 300/-‐ a sack Building Poles extraction 400/-‐ for 20 pieces Liana cutting N/a Baobab (Mabuyu) (Adansonia) Fruits 200/-‐ for 50 kg sack Landolphia kirkii fruit harvesting 1-‐2/-‐ per fruit Mkwaju (Tamarindus Indica) Fruit Pepeta (Dialium orientale) Fruits Mushroom / Fungi Farming Neem Tree exploitation Dik-‐dik /bush meat harvesting 150/-‐ a piece Wild pig harvesting 400/-‐ per animal Large mammal poaching Buffalo (50/-‐ kg) Sawn timber for construction Grass /reeds for thatching 100/-‐ a bundle Medicinal Plant gathering Cycad and ornamental Plant collection Crocodile farming Fish farming Ostrich farming Eco-‐tourism tours 50/-‐ local ; 350/-‐ international Water 5/-‐ for 20 litres

Table 16.9 Approximate Values for Different Natural Resource Products


Table 16.10 Construction of Pokomo Houses


Table 16.11 Construction of Orma Houses

Theassumptionsusedforestimatingmaintenanceandrepairs are different for the two main housing types.Pokomohousesarerectangularwithsolidwallsandstandforuptotenyearswithoutneedingmajorreconstruction,althoughrepairstoroofsareoftenrequiredafterheavystorms. Orma round houses are more temporary innature, reflecting the traditional transitory nature ofpastoralist settlements. It is common forOrmahousestobe rebuiltafter3-4years. Using this information itisassumedthatanadditional1,000Pokomohousesarebuilt eachyearona tenyear replacementcycle,whilea third (3,000dwellings)of theOrmahousing stock isreplaced each year. In practice these estimates mayunder-estimate material needs since storm damageusually accompanies theElNino/LaNinafloodeventswitha7-10yearcycle.

The information contained in Tables 16.10 and 16.11 has been processed in order to estimate theannual quantities and costs ofmaterials harvested forconstructionasshowninTable 16.12 and 16.13.

The costs for house construction, and reconstructionshowninTables16.12and16.13amountingtoatotalofKSh66millionforPokomohousesandKSh34millionforOrma houses represents the purchase price of materials only.Detailedestimateshavebeensecuredforthetimeand labour required tobuildboth typesofhousing,asshowninTable 16.14.


Table 16.12 Materials and Value (KSh) for Pokomo New Build Housing Construction

Table 16.13 Materials and Value (KSh) for Orma New Build Housing Construction

Pokomo Annual Housing Stock Replacement

Repairs and Reconstruction of Orma Houses


Table 16.14 Labour and Time Required in House-building

Table 16.15 National Estimates for Charcoal Production in Kenya

Table 16.16 Estimates for Charcoal Production per Head in Kenya

Around 150,000 person days of work is involved inbuilding for the Pokomo community and a further181,000daysfortheOrmacommunity(Odhengoet al, 2013).Person/daysofeffortaredividedby250inordertoarriveatannual jobequivalents.Basedonthisdataitcanbeestimatedthataround540and725fulltimejobsarecreated inhousebuildingandconstruction inthe two communities, although in practice householdmembersundertakemuchofthework.

Charcoal: Three methods have been used to assess the amount and value of charcoal production in the TanaDelta. These rely on establishing a national average(Method 1); calculating production and value basedonTanaRiverDistrict Reports (Method 2) and reviewof data provided in research by Leah Temper (2011)(Method 3). CharcoalisproducedthroughouttheDelta–muchofitforlocalconsumptionasaprincipalenergysource,butthemainconcentrationofmarketingactivitytakesplaceonthewesternterrace(wherebagsaresoldtopassingtrafficontheMalindi-Garsenroad)orthroughthetowncentres of Garsen, Witu, Tarasaa and Kipini.

Method 1- National Average: FAOpublishes estimatesfor national levels of charcoal production. Kenya isestimatedtoproducecharcoalayeartothevalueofKsh32billionwiththeinvolvementof2.5millionpeople.ThisequateswithanaveragevalueperpersonofKsh12,800peryear(seeTable 16.15).

If it is assumed that the average retail price per 50 Kg bagisKsh200thisequatestoanannualproductionof

160million bags or 3.2million tonnes. The equivalent production rate is 64 bags/annum/person and thisagrees precisely with the figure generated for annualincome per person (see Table 16.16).

Method 2 - Tana District data:NoinformationexistsonthelevelsofproductionwithintheDelta itselfbutriskassessmentreportsproducedatmonthlyintervalsbytheformerOfficeofthePrimeMinister3,giveanindicationof its importance. These reports show that 20% ofhousehold income (based on a sample of 450) is derived from sale of charcoal. However the sampling processapplies to thewholeof the formerTanaRiverDistrict,whichextendsoverawideareaofrangelandoutsidetheDelta so this figurewould be unrepresentative of theDeltapopulation.

TheOrmaandWardeipopulation(representingslightlylessthan50%ofthewholefortheDelta)isonlyengagedin a marginal waywith charcoal production. SurveyssuggestthatroughlyhalfthePokomo(andotherethnicgroupsengagedinsedentarylanduses)carryoutcharcoalproductionandmarketing. Onthisbasis it isassumedthat 25% of households in the Delta (i.e. 19885/4 =4971households)takeparttosomeextentwithcharcoalproduction and marketing. A further assumption hasbeen made that these households will have a higherincome than the majority. Seventy per cent of thepopulation are classified as living in poverty (earninglessthan1USDadayindisposableincome)andithastherefore been assumed that those involved in charcoal willhaveanincomeabovethislevelwhichisarbitrarilysetat170Kshperday(2USDperday)forthepurposesof estimation. The data produced on income sources

3Poverty Relief

Source: FAO


Table 16.17 Productions and Value of Charcoal per Household in East and SE Africa

Table 16.18 Estimates for Charcoal Production in the Tana Delta

indicatesthatcharcoalaccounts for19%ofhouseholdincome inTanaDistrict. If thesefigures are applied to25%ofhouseholdsintheDeltatheresults indicateanestimatedannualincomeof11,820Kshspecificallyfromcharcoal for each household. The combined income for all4,971householdswouldamounttoaroundKsh58.8millionor690,000USD.

Method 3: Delta data: This assessment is based on dataproducedbyTemper (2011).A surveyofbiomassconsumption in thePokomosettlementofVumbwe in2010indicatedthatcharcoalconstituted75%ofwoodextraction,withabouthalfofthe27households(i.e.13)producingcharcoalforsale.Anaverageof40-60(50kg)bags were produced a week representing 3-4.6 bagsperhousehold(equatingto20tonnesoftimberfelled).Temper notes that ‘Charcoal is harvested in the Delta primarilyalongthefloodplainwherethetreegrowthislushest”.

A single respondent in the survey gave detailedinformationoncharcoalproductionstatingthathecouldproduceupto20bagsofcharcoalperweekiftherewasa firm order, or an average of at least 5 bags aweekwithout orders. Each bagwas assumed by Temper tohaveavalueofKsh175(midwaybetweenwholesaleandmarketprice).BasedonthisinformationTemperquotesthepotentialforthisindividualtoearnagrossincomeofKsh87,000perannumbasedon250hoursofproduction

(at 30 minutes per bag). This figure is considered inthis report to represent an absolutemaximum rate ofproduction. If the average rate of charcoal productionper household in Vumbwe (i.e. 3-4.6 bags a week) isusedasthebasisforcalculationthisequatestoaweeklyincomeofKsh525-805 (6.2-9.5USD)perhouseholdorKsh27,300-41,860perannum.

Summary: The three methods produce a significantvariation in values so the results have also beencompared with other data for East Africa (Malimbwi& Zahabu, 2007). Table 16.17 shows the comparisonof estimated income levels from the Tana Delta withlocationsinTanzaniaandMozambique.

Havingexploredtherangeinvalues,itisconcludedthattheestimatebasedonmethod3gives themost likelyapproximationtoconditions in theTanaDeltaandtheremaining calculations are based on the assumptionthat25%ofallhouseholds(4,791)intheDeltaengagein charcoal production,producingbetween3-4.6bagsaweekperhousehold(SeeTable 16.18). This suggests thattotalproductionofcharcoal intheDeltaamountsto between 37,000 and 57,000 tonnes per annum.Allowing for an average conversion rate of 10 tonnesoftimberfor1tonneofcharcoal,theequivalentannualconsumptionofwoodforcharcoalalonewouldamounttobetween370,000and570,000tonnes.

Location Bags / HH/Year Annual Income from charcoal (USD)

Sources

Tanzania Morogoro Highway 176 Monela et al (1993) Tanzania 278 445 Monela et al (2000) Tanzania 516 645 Chaposa (2002) Licuali region Mozambique 450 Chaposa (2002) Kenya National statistics 64 150 LUP/SEA (Method 1) Kenya – Tana District 138 LUP/SEA (Method 2) Kenya – Tana Delta 156 322 LUP/SEA (Method 3) Kenya – Tana Delta 239 494 LUP/SEA (Method 3)


Inordertoconsidertheareaofforestrequiredtosupplythisvolumeoffuelwooditisnecessarytoconverttonnesto cubic metres. Forestsnetwork.org employs a ratio1.7m3toonetonneforfuelwood.Hencetheequivalentvolumeoftimberrequiredtoprovide373,698tonnesofwood fuel is635,286m3while theamountneeded toprovide573,004tonnesis974,196m3.

At a mean harvestable rate of 14 m3 per annum from 1 hectareofland(Malawifigures)atotalof45,000hectaresofwoodlandisrequiredtosustainproductionof3bagsof charcoalperhouseholdperweek in theDelta.Thisfigurerisesto69,500hectaresiftheproductionrateisassumedtobe4.6bagsperweek.

Firewood: Charcoal accounts for an estimated 75%of all fuel wood harvested, while firewood takes thebalanceof25%,whichamountstobetween211,762m3 and324,702m3. Based on a sustainableyield of 14m3

per hectare of open woodland this requires an area

of 15,125-23,193 hectares. The combined area ofwoodlandandscrubrequiredtosupportbothcharcoalandfirewoodharvestingattheestimatedcurrentratesis 60,125-92,690 ha. These figures can be comparedwiththeestimatesofforestandscrubcoverinthedeltacomprising:

Scrubandthicket 40,000haRiverineForest 32,300haWoodland 27,100ha

Most of the Riverine Forest has reserve status andshouldnotbeexploitedfortimberorfirewoodandthesameappliestosomecorewoodlands,likeOziforest.Inconsequence it is unlikely that available scrub, thicketand woodland (99,400 ha) is sufficient to supportsustainableproductionofcharcoalandfirewoodatthepresenttime.TheinformationgatheredintheprecedingsectionhasbeensummarisedinTable 16.19.

The most recent FAO report that provides an update on woodfuel statistics is the Global Forest Resources Assessment 2005 (FRA 2005). This estimates the total harvest of ‘industrial roundwood’ (industrial timber) from forests in sub-Saharan Africa in 2005 at 42 million tonnes (70 million cubic metres). This was far outstripped by fuelwood removals for the region, which are reported as 251 million tonnes (418 million cubic metres), suggesting that over 80 per cent of the wood harvested from Africa’s forests is for woodfuels. Forestsnetwork.org

Extracts from Malimbwi R.E. and Zahabu E., 2007The stand density of woody Plants in dry forests varies widely. For instance, in miombo woodland the stand density of woody species mostly ranges between 380 and 1,400 stems. In most miombo stands, the basal areas range from 7 to 25 m2 per ha. In Eastern Tanzania, the volume of harvestable trees for charcoal in miombo woodland is 35 m3 ha-1. The mean annual volume increment (MAI) in mature miombo woodland ranges from 0.58 to 3 m3ha-1yr-1.

The mean harvestable volumes in miombo range between 14 m3 per ha in dry miombo of Malawi (Lowore et al., 1994) and 117 m3 per ha in Zambian wet miombo (Chidumayo, 1988). In Eastern Tanzania, the volume of harvestable trees for charcoal in miombo woodland is 35m3ha-1 (Malimbwi et al, 2005). Average aboveground biomass in old growth miombo woodland varies mostly from around 30 tons per ha to about 140 tons per ha (Malaisse, 1978; Malimbwi et al., 1994) generally depending on the amount of annual rainfall and edaphic properties.

In 2002, about 17.84 million m3 of wood were used for charcoal production in Tanzania. It is estimated that clearing of one hectare of Miombo woodland provides on average 35m3 of firewood for charcoal production.

Source: The analysis of sustainablecharcoalproduction systems in Sub-Saharan Africa (FAO) -www.fao.org/docrep/012/i1321e/i1321e10.pdf


Category/Year 2010 Population 102,000 All Households (5.2 occupants) 19,885 25% of Households engaged 4,971 Charcoal Thousand Tonnes 37-‐57 Woodland (000 Hectares) 45-‐69 Value (KSh Million) 130-‐200 Firewood (25%) Thousand Tonnes 9.2-‐14.2 Woodland (000 Hectares) 11-‐17 Value (KSh Million) 23-‐36 Charcoal & Firewood Combined Thousand Tonnes 46.2-‐71.2 Woodland (000 Hectares) 55-‐85 Value (KSh Million) 153-‐236

Table 16.19: Charcoal and Firewood Production in 2010

16.9 Tourism16.9.1 Area and ExtentTanaDeltahostsawidediversityofwildlifethatcouldform a major tourist attraction. Species include lions,elephants, buffaloes, hippos, crocodiles, giraffes,leopards, ostriches, warthogs, baboons, antelopesincludingthecoastalraceoftopi,monkeysincludingrareand threatened species, and various species of large and colourfulbirds,amongothers.Othertouristattractionsare the 76km of coastline (pristine white beaches).There is one private wildlife sanctuary, Nairobi ranch(nowKipiniConservancy),locatednearKipiniandsomecommunitymanagedconservancies.

16.9.2 Water DemandTourismcangeneratehigh levelsofdemand forwaterper capita, but at the present level of activity in theDelta,wateruseisinsignificant.

16.9.3 Employment and LivelihoodsTourismisacapitalandlabourintensiveindustry,withthetypicalratioofstafftovisitorsrangingfrom1:3to1:15fororganisedtours(Safaris).Qualityhotelsemployonestaffmemberforeveryguestroom,whileguesthousesmay have less than one staff member for five guests(Odhengo et al, 2013). For the hotel category withinTanaDeltaemployment isbasedononestaffmemberperroomamountingto50(assumingdoubleoccupancy/room). Employment in guesthouses is estimated atthe ratio of 1:5 equating to 40. Other personnel areemployedasguides,drivers,gardenersetcanddoubletheinternalstaffcomplement(Odhengo,et al 2013). The combinedtotalofemployees isthereforeestimatedtobeintheregionof200FTEs.

16.9.4 Economic ValueTourism is underperforming (2013), despite its huge potential,largelybecauseofrecentconflictintheregion.

Table 16.20 Notional Levels of Visitor Activity in the Tana Delta, 2013


Therearecurrentlythreeestablishedhotelsandcampswithin the Tana Delta with a combined bed space ofunder 100, and a number of houses providing rooms forlocaltravellers.Assumingoccupancylevelsof5%forinternationalvisitors,15%fornationalvisitorsand50%forlocalusers,andadailyincomeof60$perinternationalvisitor,5$/dayfornationalresidentsand2$/dayforlocalusers, the total turnover from tourism might be in the regionofKSh17.6million(USD210,000).

16.10 Trade16.10.1 Wholesale, Retail, Commerce and Finance

16.10.1.1 Area and ExtentTradingactivities intheTanaDeltaPlanAreaarefairlylow since among other challenges, access to creditis limited. Currently access to credit is provided byfinancialinstitutionsthatincludeKenyaWomenFinanceTrust, Kenya Commercial Bank and Barclays Bank ofKenya.ThemaincommercialactivitiesareconcentratedinGarsenwithlowerorderservicesinothercentressuchasKipini,NgaoandTarasaa.

Formal commercial activities in the Plan area mainlyconsist of small scale,wholesale and retail shops (seeTable 16.21).Thesearemainlyconcentrated inGarsentown–themainurbancentre.

16.10.1.2 Water DemandNoseparateassessmentofwaterrequirementshasbeenmadeunderthisactivitysincetheproductionelementswhichconsumewaterarecoveredunder‘manufacturing’andotherusesfallunderdomesticconsumption.

16.10.1.3 Employment and LivelihoodsTable 16.21 indicates that there were around 489businessesin2008.Ifitisassumedthateachemployed

an average of three workers this would give around1500 FTEs. However, trading is not restricted toformal businesses and bartering forms part of everyhousehold’seconomicactivities.Pettytradeisshownasaccountingfor11%oftheaveragehouseholdincomeinTanaRiverDistrictin2011(GovernmentofKenya,2012)(See Figure 16.1). On the basis that trade represents one tenthof eachhousehold’s income this equates to1,988fulltimejobswithinthePlanArea.ThecombinedestimateforlivelihoodsbasedonTrade,commerceandfinancialservicesistherefore3,488FTEs.

16.10.1.4 Economic ValueData on income sources within Tana River DistrictDevelopment Plan (2008-2012) is quoted only inpercentages with no absolute values. However, theinformation generated earlier on charcoal provides apossiblebasisforestimatingoverallfigures.

Theestimatedvaluefor25%ofhouseholdsengagedincharcoalproductionintheDeltaisKSh27,300-41860/HH/year.Inordertoarriveatanaveragefortheentirepopulationthesefiguresneedtobedividedby4givingKSh6,825-10,465perhousehold.

If these figures are substituted into a table, based onthe percentages given in Figure 16.1, the results are as showninTable 16.22.

The gross individual household annual income range ofKSh34,125-52,325perannumisequivalenttoKSh93.5-143.4/day or 1.1-1.7 USD/day, which probablyequates fairlywellwith thevery low-income levels forthemajorityofthepopulation.

Table 16.22 provides an indicative breakdown ofindividualincomefromwhichitcanbeseenthatpettytradingaccountsfor11%of income. Ifthispercentageis applied to the two estimates of annual income, therelated annual sum for individual trading income ranges betweenKSh3,754andKSh5,756.Takingthetradingcomponent from Table 16.22 the gross trading level for theTanaDelta,basedon19,885households,wouldbeKSh74million–KSh114million.

The gross household income for the Tana Delta populationwouldamounttoKSh678million–KSh1.04billionwiththeaveragebeingKSh859million.

Seventy per cent of the population lives belowinternationally defined poverty levels in terms of cashincome (although wealth for some ‘poor’ familiesas expressed by livestock ownership may be quiteconsiderable).Lackofdisposableincomegreatlyreducespurchasing power amongst the general population.

Type of business Number Wholesale 6 Catering Retail traders 112 Garages 1 Jua kali artisans 50 Small scale traders 317 Distribution Financial institutions 3

Table 16.21: Type and Number of Businesses

Source: Tana River District Development Plan, 2008-2012


Element Percentage Values Charcoal sales 20 6,825 10,465 Livestock sales 21 7,166.25 10,988.25 Casual Labour 34 1,1602.5 17,790.5 Wood products 4 1,365 2,093 Petty Trade 11 3,753.75 5,755.75 Sale of crops 5 1,706.25 2,616.25 Gifts /Remittances 5 1,706.25 2,616.25 Totals 34,125 52,325

Table 16.22 Estimated Values for Average Income in Tana Delta

Figure 16.1 Percentage Contributions to Household Income in the Tana River District, 2011




However, in terms of trading and commerce theamount of money changing hands through middlemen in livestock, foodproduceand retail salescanbesubstantial. The Wema and Hewani Village BusinessPlans indicate that rice sold at the ‘farm gate’ in theDeltain2012averagedKsh3,250per90kgbagwhilethewholesaleprice inMalindi andMombasawasKsh5,200-5,800(Odhengoet al,2012c).Thedifferenceof1950-2550 Ksh represents a mark-up of 60-78%, ofwhichonlyapartisduetotransportcosts.

16.11 Mining and Industry16.11.1 Area and ExtentMining activities in the Plan Area are minimal at thepresenttime.There is harvestingof sand and sea saltespecially intheSouthernpartoftheCounty.ThereisalsothepotentialfortitaniumprospectingintheDelta.

Nodirectinformationisavailableonsaltminingwithinthe Delta area but a report on coastal salt mining in Kenya estimated that the annual output from 5,000hectares is 170,000 tonnes, averaging 34 tonnes perhectare (UNEP, 1998). Assuming that the salt workslyingwithin the extreme southwestern corner of theDeltacover500hectarestheequivalentsaltproductionis17,000tonnes/annum.

Industrial activities are also minimal in the Delta. Anominalareaof10Haisincludedinthesummarytable16.26.ThemainricemillhasrecentlybeenrehabilitatedandismanagedbyTARDAbutisonlyoperatingatabout30% of its capacity due to low rice production.Mostcommercial activities are of cottage industry scale orareinformalinnatureandincludefurnituremaking,matmaking, homebasedoil extraction andbuttermaking.Theseactivitiesformpartofthesubsistenceeconomy.

16.11.2 Water DemandThe current level of industrial and mining activity inthe Tana Delta does not generate a significant waterdemand.

16.11.3 Employment and LivelihoodsWith the exception of salt processing, for which anestimated50FTEsareinvolved,thecontributionofthissector toemploymentand incomes isminimalbuthashighpotential.ExplorationhasrecentlycommencedforoilandgaswithintheLamusectionoftheTanaDelta.CommunitieslivingintheDeltaareengagedinvariouseconomicactivitiesrangingfromcropfarming,livestockkeeping,fishing,informaltradeandseasonalandformalemployment(SeeTable 16.23).

16.11.4 Economic ValueTheworldpriceex-mineforseasalt in2010wasUSD180/tonne according to the US Geological survey.Consequently, thevalueofestimatedproduction fromtheTanaDeltaareawouldamounttoUSD3.06million(KSh257million).

16.12 InfrastructureTheTanaDeltahasthebenefitofamajorroadpassinground its perimeter and linking Malindi (and the restof the southern coastal towns) to Garsen, and Lamu.However, until the advent of the LAPSSET corridorand Lamu Port project, this route had been seriouslyneglected and even today some parts of the road areseverelypot-holed–especially theextensionnorth toHola and Garissa.

TheremainderoftheroadnetworkintheDeltaconsistsof short lengths of tarred road to Tarasaa and Kipini but themajority of roads and tracks are gravel-boundor beaten earth. Electricity supplies to the principalsettlements havebeen significantly upgradedwith theconstruction of a new national grid powerline linkingMombasaandLamu.Muchoftheruralareaiswithoutelectricity.

ThereisnoeasywayofvaluingthecurrentexpenditureoninfrastructureintheTanaDelta,butanapproximationhas been made by applying the percentage figure of12.1%, which relates to Gross National Product asrecordedintheNationalAccounts(2012),totheothereconomic data collected for the Delta. This figureamounts to KSh 1,202 million in 2050.

16.13 Administration, Professional Services, Education and Health16.13.1 Public AdministrationThepublicsectorincludesstaffworkingfortheCountyGovernments(formerlyemployedindistrictpositionsbythenationalgovernment).Asinthecaseofprofessional

Occupation Percentage (%) Herdsman (pastoralists) 38.9 Keeping livestock 8.3 Business man/woman 1.7 Farming and livestock 8.9 Farming 35.6 Employed 6.7 Total 100.0

Table 16.23: The Economic Activities of Tana River Delta Communities

Source: HVA International, 2007


services, this sector currently makes up only a smallcomponent of economic activity, although under thenewly devolved functions of County Governments itsimportancewillgrowrapidlyoncetheembargoonnewappointmentsisliftedandfundsbecomeavailable.

16.13.2 Professional ServicesA very small number of people are employed withinthe Tana Delta in professional fields such as banking,surveying,veterinaryservices,teachersanddoctors.

These sectors may be expected to grow in directrelationshiptotheexpansioninpopulationandsizeofthelocaleconomysothefigureof11.1%(thepercentageofGDP,asrecordedintheNationalAccounts,2012)hasbeen applied to the data collected for all other sectors ofthelocaleconomy.ThisyieldsafigureofKSh1,706million in 2050.

16.13.3 Urban AreasThe physical extent of urban areas including both themain towns and rural villages has been estimated at2,620 hectares. This includes large areas of vacant land withinthenominalsettlementboundaries,whichseldomhaveanyformallimits.

16.14 Water ResourcesWater resources are included, like natural resourcesof which they are a part, because most economicactivities in theTanaDelta depend to someextent orotheron theRiverTana for itswater resources. In thedry seasons, villageswhich are remote from the riverrely on excavating small pits in driedup channels anddepressions. But even thiswater source is dependentonrechargefromthemainriverandfromsurfacefloodsduring the rains.

16.14.1 Water ConsumptionWater is required for crop irrigation, livestock anddomesticconsumptionandnatureconservation.Naturalconditionsofwatersupplyhavedeterioratedinthelastfortyyears as a result of impoundments in theUpperTana Catchment. Research for the SEA has shownthatflows inRiverTanahavehistoricallymaintainedaminimum monthly mean of 60m3/second at Garsen(Idsowe Bridge), with levels dropping to 45 or 30m3/secondinonlyafewmonthsinextremedroughtyears.Muchofthiswaterisdistributedthoughminorchannelsacross the lowerfloodplainwhere it sustainswetlandsonwhichlocalcommunitiesdependfortheirlivelihoodsaswellassustainingtherichbiodiversity.

Domestic Consumption: Existing levels of waterconsumption remain very low in terms of permanentabstraction sincewastewater is returned naturally to

thesystem.Humanconsumptionofwater is restrictedbythecapacityofwomenandchildrentocollectit.Ifitisassumedthattheaverageabstractionperpersonforallpurposesis20litres(IsolaFigures)(Mati,2006)thisequates to adailydemandof2.04million litres (2040m3/day).This compareswith averageconsumptionperheadof150litres/dayinNairobi(IEA,2007).

Agriculture: Most farming in the Tana Delta relies on rainfall during the wet seasons, receding floodwatersandnaturalgroundwaterpercolation.Consequentlyitishard to attribute aprecisevalue towateruptake. It isreasonabletoassume,howeverthatinatypical90dayperiodforcropproduction,plantswillabsorbsoilwateratarateof100mmpermonthequatingto0.33m3 per square metre.

Livestock: Thedailywaterintakeforcattleinrangelandsisintheregionof12-20litres,althoughthisisforbeefcattleanddairycowsrequire50-100litreswhenlactating(IRIN,2007).Dailyconsumptionwillbeintheregionof4,240M3/Day (assuming 15% are milking cows). Thisestimatedealsonlywithdirectwaterconsumption.Theamountofwatertakenupbygrassandplantsandeatenasforagebylivestockandwildherbivoresislikelytobeon a comparable level to agricultural cropping.

Water and the Environment: Water is the source of all lifewithin theTanaDeltaanda substantial amountofthewater reaching theDelta is absorbed by soils andvegetationor is lost through evaporation.Consideringonly the area of the Lower Delta,which contains themost important areas of wet grassland, plant growthand evapo-transpiration require a minimum of 100mmpermonthinexcessofrainfallduringthesixdriestmonthsof theyear (GovernmentofKenya,2009).Thewateruptakebyvegetationandevaporationinthisareaof 70,000 hectares approaches 5.1millionm3/day, (or59m3/sec)representingmostifnotalloftheRiverTanaflowthroughtheDelta.Thisfigurethereforerepresentsthe minimum flow that is required to safeguard theDelta’srichbiodiversity,landusesandculturalheritageand should be adopted as the ‘environmental reserve’–meaning theminimumamount ofwater that shouldflowtotheDelta, regardlessofthedemandsandusesforwaterupstream.

16.14.2 Water SourcesThemain supply to theTanaDelta is provided by theRiver Tana, augmented by occasional flash floods anddischargesfromthelagas.Groundwaterisexploitedbythelocalpopulation,especiallyinareasthatareremotefrom the permanent river channels, but all ground waterisultimatelyrechargedfromtheriverandannualflooding.


TheRiverTanadividesbelowIdsoweintotwochannels– the ‘Main’ riverwhichnowtakesonlyabout40%oftheflowandthenewlyestablishedeasternchannel,theMatombaBrook,whichtakesaround60%of theflow.ThevolumeofwaterintheMainriverindrymonthsistoosmalltosustainthe leveloffarmingactivitypreviouslyundertaken (due to saltwater incursion at high tides).Watersupplytothecentralwetlandsisadequateexceptindroughtconditions.

Themanagement ofwater resourceswithin theDeltaisverydifficultfortworeasons.Firstly,theflowintheRiverTana isdictatedbyseasonalvariationsandlevelsofabstractionupstream.Secondly,thephysicaldirectionofflowstodifferentpartsoftheDeltaisdependentonthe prevailing structure of the river channels and anyattemptstoengineeralternativeroutesusingcanalsareliable to be destroyed by floods. Catchment areas orriverine areas arenot protected, right from theUpperDelta regionaroundMbalambala,Boka,Malkamasa. Inthese regions indigenous trees have been cut and this affects the flow downstream since the water flowsdownstream at the Delta with a stronger force andchangingitscoursemorefrequently

Insimple terms theexistingwaterbalance in theTanaDeltahasalreadydroppedbelowitsnaturalstatewiththeconstructionofupstreamdamsandwaterabstractionpoints. Continued maintenance of the Primate National Reserve and the Tana Delta Ramsar sites, biodiversity, livelihoods and culture is dependent on maintaining an average monthly flow in the River Tana at Garsen of 60m3/second for the reasons described in section16.13.1 .

Water Sales: TheLUPBaselineReportreferstothefactthatthereare404watervendorswithinthePlanArea.Itisassumedthattheyaredistributingpackagedwater.Although the number of vendors is very small, theirexistenceissignificantbecausemanypartsoftheDeltaaretooremotetobeprovidedwithpipedsupplies.

16.15 Biodiversity16.15.1 Area and ExtentThe natural resources of the Tana Delta include its soils,vegetationandwildlifeonwhichmanyeconomicactivitiesarebased.ArichmosaicofhabitatsmakesuptheDelta includingriverineforest,drywoodland,palmsavannah, lakes, swamps, river channels, mangrove,dunes and grassland. All of these habitats depend on thecontinuingflowoftheRiverTana.Inrecentdecadesthe number of some largermammals (Buffalo,Giraffe,Waterbuck and Zebra) has declined due to increasingcompetitionovergrazinglandwithlivestock,thespreadofhumansettlementwhichhasintrudedontraditional

migratoryroutes(fromTsavoEastNationalParkandtheNorthEasternrangelandstotheDelta)andinthecaseof aquatic species likeHippopotamus from the lossofhabitat (See Table 16.24).Other species have actuallyincreasedinnumbersbetween1993-2003butnomorerecent data is available.

ThemosticonicoftheDelta’swildlife–theTanaRiverRedColobus andTanaRiverCrestedMangabey – livein dense riverine forest and are hard to count. Although thepopulationappearstobestablethehabitatisunderconstant threat from tree clearance.

BirdsconstituteaveryimportantpartoftheTanaDeltaecosystem and apart from justifying its status as anImportant Bird Area (IBA) they are also a significantdimension in the area’s designation as a Ramsar site.More than 22 species of wetland birds gather in theDeltainnumberswhichareofinternationalsignificanceandthereareanumberoflargecoloniesofwaterbirdslikeegret,heronandibis.

Species 1993 1996 2002 Buffalo 8,644 1,884 1,518 Eland 736 78 -‐ Elephant 122 255 239 Grant Gazelle 2,325 3,846 3,537 Gerenuk 2,345 3,022 4,356 Giraffe 3,799 1,315 1,218 Hunter’s Hartebeest 407 19 -‐ Lesser Kudu 1,259 883 2,098 Oryx 1,802 2,178 1,019 Ostrich 1,414 1,044 419 Topi 5,679 255 -‐ Warthog 1,666 2,590 2,677 Waterbuck 1,201 608 139 Plains Zebra 2,461 2,355 1,538 Grevy’s Zebra 38 37 -‐

Table 16.24: Wildlife Population in the Delta

Valuingbiodiversitypresentsmanychallenges.Therearea number of environmental economic measures that are used includingcontingentvaluation,willingnesstobuyand hedonic pricing. These techniques were used forthe Arabuko-Sokoke Forest Management Plan (2001).AnequivalentexercisehasnotbeenundertakenfortheTana Delta because it contains very variable habitatsand,todate,thevalueofitsbiodiversityfortourismhashardlybeentapped.

ThestatusandconditionofthenaturalenvironmentintheTanaDeltaisheavilydependentupontheprotectionandenhancementofthemanyvariedhabitatswhichgiverisetoitsbiologicaldiversity. InonesensethespecialqualitiesoftheDeltastemfromtherichnessofallthe

Source: Kenya Wildlife Service


Table 16.25 Primary Habitats Making up the Core of the Tana Delta

habitats.Consequentlythe lossordeteriorationofanycomponentwillinevitablyweakenthewhole. However,someareasmayberegardedasofexceptionalimportance because together they sustain the mostimportant fauna and flora of the Delta. These areas,regardedasprimaryhabitats,areshowninTable 16.25.

Theterm“primaryhabitat”isusedtodistinguishbetweenthe core areas and other ‘secondary’ habitats that areimportantforindividualspeciesbutarenottheprimaryreason for the area’s designation as a Ramsar site. Inaddition to the specific habitats listed inTable 16.25, anothercriticalcomponentoftheDelta’biodiversity isthe existence of migratory land corridors through thebuffer zonewhich are used by bothwild animals andlivestockinordertopassbetweenthecoreoftheDeltaand thewider rangelands. Ithasbeenassumed in thisassessmentthateachoftheexistingfivecorridorsshouldbemaintainedwithaminimumwidthoftwokilometresandalengthof10kilometresthroughthosepartsofthethicketandscrubzonelyingwithinthePlanArea.

Having identified the primary habitats, and providedanestimateoftheirtotalextentin2010as1,407Km2, this figuremaybe regarded as thebenchmark againstwhich future change in the extent of habitatsmay bemeasured.Clearlyanylossinareawillhaveanabsoluteand finite impact on the habitat in question. Erosionof the edges to habitatswill also have effects on theremaining core areas and may reduce the size of thesensitiveareabelowthe‘criticalmass’atwhichcertain

Habitat Type Area in Km2 Forest 271 Riverine Forest 323 Water 18 Floodplain grassland 508 Mangrove 84 Dunes 103

Migratory Corridors through thicket 100 Total 1,407

species of plant and animal that are vulnerable to human disturbance can survive. Finally, a range of humanactivities that may be tolerated when practiced on asmallscaleorindividually–likegatheringreeds,grassesandwoodenpolesorharvestingfruitsandmushrooms–may end up degrading the resource so heavily thatnatural regeneration becomes impossible. There isinsufficientdata toallow theseeffects tobemodelledin ameaningfulway so under each scenario the likelychangesaredescribedverbally.

16.15.2 Wildlife CorridorsTanaDeltaprovidesvitalecosystemservicestoamuchwiderareathantheDeltaitself,duetoitsretentionofwaterandwetlandsinthedryseasonsandtheavailabilityofgrazingforbothwildanddomesticatedanimals.

Large herbivores have used fixed migratory routesbetweenareas likeTsavoEastNationalParkandotherareasofNorthEastKenyaforcenturies.Themigrationstake place twice a year and although they are on amuch smaller scale than the internationally famousSerengeti/Masai-Maramigration,theyareneverthelessof great importance in preserving elephant and antelope populations across the entire region (Bennun andNjoroge, 1999). Five routes exist into the Delta: twofrom the north east and three from the north westandwestandtheirpositionsareshowninFigure16.2.ThesameroutesareusedbypastoralistswhenherdingcattlebetweentheDeltaandwetseasongrazingareas.Illegal wildlife poaching has been frequent along thewildlifemigratory corridorsover theyears resulting todiminishingwildlifepopulations.

Inadditiontotheestablishedmigratoryroutes,landlyingbetween separatedblocksof riverine forest andotherhabitats within the Delta serves a similar function inallowingmobilespecies,likeprimatesandbirds,totravelto and fromdifferent territories. Conversionof theseareas from thicket, scrub or grassland to permanentagricultureincreasestheisolationofremotehabitatsandincreases the pressure on the survival of rare species.

16.16 SummaryThe characteristicsof baseline conditions in theDeltaaresummarisedinthefollowingTable 16.26.


Figure 8.2 Gross Demand for Land for Scenarios A, B & C in 2050 Compared with the Existing Situation

Figure 16.2 Principal Migratory Routes


TABLE 16.26 Baseline Summaries

Component Measure/Unit 2010 Population Thousands 102 Workforce Thousands (51% of population -‐ LUP Baseline Report) 52 Urban Area Km2 26.2 Industrial land Hectares 10 Open Grazing Area occupied (Km2) 1128 Cattle-‐ Maximum number 735,000 Cattle -‐ Minimum number 220,000 Cattle -‐ Average number 477,500 Average value (KSh @ 12,000/head) 5.73 Billion Ranches Area occupied (ha) 9,200 Cattle -‐ Maximum number 480 Cattle-‐ Minimum number 480 Cattle-‐ Average number 480 Average value (KSh million) 3.1 Farming Potential Arable Area (Km2) 1100 Permanent Cultivation (Area Km2) 6.2 Subsistence Farming (Number of people supported) 102,000 Value of crop production (KSh million) 828 Irrigated land (ha) 385 Labourers (‘000s) 12 Commercial farms (Has) 450 Fishing Number of Kgs/annum 613,003 Value (KSh million) 53.14 Bee keeping Number of hives 12,150 Honey (000 Kg) 68-‐96 Value (KSh million) 20-‐29 Natural Products Area required for harvesting (Km2) 55-‐85 People engaged in NTFP harvesting 4971 Income generated (million) 80 House building using natural materials (KSh million) 100 Employment in house construction (number of jobs) 1,165 Charcoal / Firewood (000 tonnes) 153-‐236 Tourism Turnover (Value 000 USD) 26 Trade Household trading activities (KSh million) 859 Industry & Mining Area Involved (Salt ponds Kms) 0.5 Turnover (Value KSh million) 257 Infrastructure Services / Transport (KSh million) 1,202 Administration/ Professional Services/ Education / Health

Gross turnover (KSh million) 1,706

Water Demand Domestic (m3/day) 2,040 Commercial / Industrial (m3/day) 0 Livestock (m3/day) 4,748 Farming (m3/day) 10,548 Environmental Reserve (m3/day) 5.2 million Biodiversity 1,407 Km2 Prime habitats = 100 100


CHAPTER

17 SCENARIO A - CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF TRADITIONAL LIVELIHOODS

17.1 DefinitionThis scenario is based on projections for continuingpopulationgrowthintheTanaDeltaandtheassumptionthatlocalcommunitieswillcontinuetoprovidefortheirownneedsbymaintainingtraditionalformsoflivelihood.Specificelementsofthescenarioarethat:i. The number of people resident in the Delta will

increase from thepresent 102,000 to156,000by2030andto281,000by2050;

ii. Water availability in the Delta will decrease aswaterisdivertedfromtheRiverTanatoserveothercommunitiesanddevelopmentprojectsintheUpperandMiddleCatchments;

iii. No substantial investment will take place in theDelta and the communitieswill rely on their ownresources.

17.2 Population17.2.1 Basic CharacteristicsThe SEA has examined the prospects for futurepopulationgrowthintheDeltawhichareinfluencedbyboth natural demographic characteristics and inwardmigration. The conclusion reached is that the presentnumberofpeoplelivingintheDeltawill increasefrom102,000to174,000by2030andto315,000by2050.At present it is estimated that 65,000 people live insettlements along the terraces, with a further 35,000livingwithin the floodplain. Fewer than 2,000 peopleliveinthecoastalzone(Odhengoet al, 2014a).

Basedontheoverallgrowthprojectionsat3%increaseper annum the distribution of population in theDeltain 2030 and 2050 is shown in Table 17.1. Actual distribution of population within the Delta will varyas a result of many variables including available land,competition for land and water, the planning policiesthat are introduced to manage growth and naturalevents (floods and droughts). However, the allocationshown in Table 17.1 provides a convenient basis for discussingsuchinfluencesandthepreferreddistributionasdiscussedintheHybridScenario. 17.2.2 Household FormationOverthenext20-40yearstherearecertaintobemajorchangesindemography,butforplanningpurposesitisassumedthatthenumberofhouseholdswillincreaseinlinewiththeexistingrelationships.Thismeansthatthenumberofhouseholdswillincreasefrom19,885in2010to33,550in2030and60,595in2050.

17.3 Economic ActivityLivelihoodsintheDeltaarecentredonthefollowingareasofeconomicactivity: 1.Livestockrearing2.Farming3.Fishing4.Bee-keeping5.HarvestingofNaturalResources6. Tourism7.Trade-WholesaleandRetail-CommerceandFinancialServices8.Mining&Industry-MiningandQuarrying-Manufacturing9.Infrastructure-Services-Transport10.AdministrationandProfessionalServices11.UrbanAreas12. Water13.NatureConservation

Eachoftheseactivitiesisexaminedinmoredetailinthesectionsthatfollow.

17.4 LivestockTwocategoriesoflivestockrearingareconsidered:• Opengrazingofcattle,goatsandsheepon

unfenced grassland, and,• Grazingwithinranches.

17.4.1 Open Grazing of Livestock

17. 4.1.1 Area and ExtentIt isassumedthatpastoralistswillseektoincreasethenumberoflivestockherdedwhereverpossible,althoughthetotalareaoflandsuitableforgrazingisfinite.Currentnumbers of livestock that are grazedwithin theDeltaare shown inTable 17.2, togetherwith theequivalentnumberthatwouldbeneededtomaintainthesameratiothatexistswiththecurrentpopulation,astheresidentpopulationoftheTanaDeltagrows.

Thecurrent (2010) ratioof thenumberofanimalsperhousehold is 21.3 cattle; 13.2 sheep, 11.9 goats and0.036 camels for every pastoralist household and thenumbersof each typeof livestockhasbeenprojected


Location 2010 2030 2050 Terraces 65,000 111,000 20,1000 Floodplain 35,000 60,000 10,8000 Coast 2,000 3,000 6,000 Total 102,000 174,000 31,5000

Livestock 2010 2030 2050 Number TLU Number TLU Number TLU

Cattle 211,858 148,301 357,307 250,115 645,339 451,737 Sheep 131,154 13,115 223,430 22,343 403,537 40,354 Goats 118,676 11,868 203,118 20,312 366,852 36,685 Camels 360 360 609 609 1,100 1,100 Total 173,644 293,379 529,876

Table 17.1 Population Levels in 2010 Projected to 2030 and 2050

Table 17.2 Numbers of Livestock and Equivalent TLU in 2010, Projected to 2030 and 2050

Table 17.3 Water Consumption per Day (All livestock)

forward to 2030 and 2050 based on the forecastpopulationincrease.

Itmustbestressedthatthesefiguressimplyshowthenumber of animals thatwould need to be keptwithintheDeltainordertoalloweachhouseholdtomaintainthe same number of animals as they did in 2010.Whether this is feasible in terms of carrying capacity,(i.e. availability of land andwater) is examined in theSEA.ItshouldbenotedthattheestimatesinTable 17.2 are based on the minimum number of animals present in theDeltain2010.Thebaselineanalysiscalculatesthatforcattle,thenumberofadditionalanimalswhichmaybedrivenintotheDeltaindroughtperiodsmayexceedhalf a million. This seasonal increase is not included in theprojectionof resident livestocknumbers shown inTable 17.2.

All Livestock 2010 2030 2050 Total daily water intake (million m3) Wet season

3.5 4.84 8.74

Total daily water intake (million m3) Dry season

12 12 12

17.4.1.2 Water DemandUsing the same consumption figures generated insection 16.4.2, the dailywater demand for cattle andotherlivestockwouldincreaseasshowninTable 17.3.

17.4.1. 3 Employment and LivelihoodsThe number of FTEs based on one herder per 100animalswouldrisefrom1,736in2010to2,934in2030and5,299in2050.

17.4.1.4 Economic ValueIf it is assumed for the purposes of Scenario A that the increaseinthenumberoflivestockcouldbephysicallyaccommodated and that the current average price for cattle is applied, the relative value of the cattle aloneineachof the three referenceyears is shown inTable 17.30.


Table 17.4 Indicative Value for Resident Cattle in the Delta

Table 17.5 Livestock Rearing on all Ranches

Table 17.6 Livestock Rearing on Ranches within the Delta

Year Number of Resident Cattle Value of Resident Cattle in Ksh 2010 211,858 2,542,296,000 2030 357,307 4,287,684,000 2050 645,339 7,744,068,000

17.4.2 Grazing on Ranches

17.4.2.1AreaandExtentFive of themajor ranches in the region liewithin theDeltaPlanBufferZone, twoofwhich extend into thecoreareaontheterracesbetweenIdsoweandTarasaa.Asixthranchlieswhollywithinthesouthernfloodplain.According to theLUPBaselineReport (Odhengoet al, 2013); only one of these ranches (Ida-sa-Godana) iscurrently grazed with a small number of cattle (240),goats(112)andsheep(128).

Asignificantproportionofranchlandhasbeenleasedtoexternalcompanies likeBedfordBiofuels,althoughthecurrentstatusoftheseagreementsisindoubtfollowingthat company’s withdrawal from its experimentalplantingofJatrophaon10,000ha.

Under ScenarioA it is assumed that the owners,whoare either absentee landowners or elite members ofexisting communities, will seek to intensify levels ofuse,basedonstockingtheranchestothelimitsoftheircarrying capacity in terms of forage andwater.Theseaimsmaybechallengedbyothercommunitymembersand by squatters on the land but for the purposes of

5One Tropical Livestock Unit is the equivalent of 250 Kg live weight for grazing animals. Ten sheep or goats, averaging 25 Kg in weight equate to 1 TLU; One camel equals a TUL while, cattle are typically only 0.7 TLUs. (Source: FAO)

the scenario it is assumed that full stockingwill occurasshowninTables 17.5 and 17.6. The combined area of theranchesamountsto193,065haofwhich9200halieswithinthecoreareaoftheDelta.

The number of livestock that could be kept on theranches has been estimated by applying standardTropicalLivestockUnits(TLU)5tothegrazingcategoriesforSemi-AridandAridrangelandinKenya.StudiesshowthatthecarryingcapacityforsuchareasvariesbetweenoneTLUforeverythreetosevenhectares.Applyingthisinformationtothetotalareaoftheranchesgeneratesafigureofbetween27,580and64,355TLU.Thenumberof each typeof livestock is basedon the ratioof twocattletoonesheepandonegoat,asrecordedin2010(Odhengo et al,2012c),whichconstitutes1.6TLU.

Table 17.6 shows the same information but only forthoseranchareaslyingwithintheDeltacore.

Itisassumedthatmaximumcarryingcapacityisreachedin2050,withhalfthislevelbeingreachedin2030.ThisisanarbitraryallocationbutprovidesthestartingpointforlateranalysisintheSEAoftheconsequencesofthislevel

Area of All Ranches TLU at stocking densities No of Cattle No of Goats No of Sheep

193,065 3 ha/head 64,355 58,505 27,029 30,890 7 ha/head 27,581 25,098 11,584 13,239


oflivestockrearing.TheresultsofthesecalculationsareshowninTable 17.7 for all ranches, and Table 17.8 for rancheswithintheDelta.AswithallotherestimatesintheScenariostheresultssimplyshowtheconsequencesof applying certain assumptions. The practicality ofachievingtherespectiveestimates is testedseparately

throughtheSEA.AkeyconsiderationintheSEAistheextent towhich this levelof increased stockingwoulddisplacegrazingbywildherbivoresandbyothercattlewhich have currently have access to the ranch areaswhichareunfenced.

Description 2010 2030 2050 Tropical Livestock Units (3 ha/TLU) 264 32,178 64,355

Cattle (No) 240 29,253 58,505

Goats (No) 112 13,515 27,029

Sheep (No) 128 15,445 30,890

Tropical Livestock Units (7 ha/TLU) 264 13,791 27,581

Cattle (No) 240 12,549 25,098

Goats (No) 112 5,792 11,584

Sheep (No) 128 6,620 13,239

Description 2010 2030 2050 Tropical Livestock Units (3 ha/TLU) 264 1,533 3,067

Cattle (No) 240 1,395 2,791

Goats (No) 112 644 1,288

Sheep (No) 128 736 1,472

Tropical Livestock Units (7 ha/TLU) 264 657 1,314

Cattle (No) 240 598 1,196

Goats (No) 112 276 552

Sheep (No) 128 316 631

Table 17.7 Potential Livestock Rearing on all Ranches in 2030 and 2050

Table17.8 Potential Livestock Rearing on Ranches within the Delta in 2030 and 2050

Table 17.9 Water Consumption by Livestock on Ranches (million m3/year)

All Livestock 2010 2030 2050

All ranches 0.0036 0.48 0.96 Ranch within the Delta 0.0036 0.025 0.05


17.4.2.2 Water DemandTherespectivewaterdemandfortheyears2010,2030and 2050 for livestock on all ranches and the ranchwithintheDeltaisshowninTable 17.9.

17.4.2.3 Employment and LivelihoodsOntheassumptionthattherancheswouldbepartiallyfencedfewerherderswouldberequiredthanonopengrazingareas.Consequentlytheratiohasbeenreducedfrom one herder per hundred to one herder per twohundredhead.Therespectivenumbersaretherefore2FTEsin2010,160FTEsin2030and320FTEsin2050.

17.4.2.4 Economic ValueThe current level of stocking on the ranchwithin theDeltahasverylittleeconomicvalue,butifanestimateismadebasedsolelyonthenumberofcattlewhichcouldbe accommodated in 2030 and 2050, the gross value of thestockwouldbeKSh16,740,000ayearin2030andKSh33,492,000in2050.

ThenumberofcattlethatcouldbecarriedonthelargerranchesoutsidetheDeltawouldbeheavilydependenton measures needed to exclude wild herbivores andlivestock fromwithin theDelta,which are allowed tograze freely over the ranch lands at the present time.Assuming,however, that therancheswerefencedandmanagedexclusivelyforcattle,thepotentialgrossvalueofthestockisshowninTable 17.10.

Year Number of Cattle Value of Cattle in KSH 2010 264 3,168,000 2030 32,178 386,136,000 2050 64,355 772,260,000

Table 17.10 Value of Cattle Potentially Carried on all Ranches

Table 17.11 Land Areas and Employment in Subsistence Farming in 2010, Extrapolated to 2030 and 2050

17.5 FarmingIn this section the order in which information ispresentedhasbeenmodified.Theopeningsub-sectiondescribestheareaandextentoflandutilisedforfarming.This is then followedbydetaileddescriptionsof threetypes of farming practice; namely 17.5.2 Subsistencecultivation; 17.5.3, Individual and communal irrigationschemes and 17.5.4, Commercial farming. Finally,summary information on water demand, employmentand livelihoods and economic value is produced for all threetypesoffarmingintheclosingsub-sections.

17.5.1 Area and ExtentThe analysis of farming areas set out in the ExistingSituation (section 16.5) indicates that roughly 45% ofthelandintheDeltaundergoessomeformoftemporarycultivationorharvestingasarableorrangeland.Thisisamuchlargerarea(114,800ha)thanthelandsetasideforpermanentfarmingunderindividualhouseholds’control(6,147 hectares). Population increasewill require thatthepermanentlycultivatedareaisincreasedby70%(to10,460hectares)by2030andtrebleinsizeby2050(toatotalof18,930hectares).Theseincreasesinpermanentcultivationwillserveonlytomaintainaratioof1.5acresper household. They would not tackle the continuingproblems of food shortages for more than 20% ofthe population. Realistically the area in permanentcultivationwouldneedtobedoubled(i.e.3acres/1.Ha)perhouseholdtoachieveself-sufficiencyinfood.


A number of different farming models are practisedwithintheDeltaincluding:•Subsistencecultivationbyindividualfamilies,• Individual and Communal irrigated farming,•Commercialfarmingenterprises(e.g.TARDA)

Table 17.11 shows the areas assumed to be undersubsistence cultivation in 2010, and the increase inpermanent cultivation required tomaintain 1.5 acres/household and to increase this to 3 acres/household.The table also shows the number of related FTE jobscreatedin2030and2050(basedon2FTEs/1.5acresand4FTEs/3acres).

UnderScenarioAitisassumedthatfuturedevelopmentofsubsistencefarmingwillbedesignedtoremovethebasiccausesofpovertybyproviding3acresoflandperhousehold.

17.5.2 Subsistence CultivationThis formof farming is undertakenby themajority ofPokomo people and a small number of farmers fromother ethnic groups including Orma. As estimated inthe baseline, the average size of land parcel farmedby a family is 1.5 acres (see 16.5.1.2). It is difficult toquantifythefullleveloflabourexpendedonsubsistenceagriculture. Most of the hard labour, including ploughing, digging,planting,harvestingandwateringisundertakenby women, but other family members includingchildren will assist at key seasons including plantingand harvesting. For the purposes of Scenario A it isassumedthateach1.5acreplotwillbemaintainedbyonewomancommittingtheequivalentofoneFullTimeEquivalent (FTE) job, supportedbyanumberof familymembers working part-time (representing a further 1FTE).TheincreasingnumberoflivelihoodssupportedbyexpansionintheareaofsubsistencefarmingisshowninTable 17.11.

17.5.3 Individual and Communal Irrigation SchemesA number of individual farmers have irrigated small areas oflandbydiggingditchestochannelwatertotheirplotsor treeorchards fromtheRiverTanaorareasofsemi-permanentwetland.Theyhavealsousedsmallmobilewaterpumpsandhosestoachievethesameresults.Inaddition,groupsoffarmersandvillagershavesometimescombined forces to excavate new canals or brooks todivert larger amounts ofwater. These exercises havenotalwaysbeensuccessfulandinsomecasestheyhavehad unintended consequences including diversion of themainriverflow,orallowingincomingtidestopushsaline water into wetland farming areas. Table 17.12 shows the extent of existing irrigation schemes andmakesassumptionsaboutthepotentialforaddingtotheexistingnetwork.

Description 2010 2030 2050 Pumped Irrigation 50 300 500 Gravity-‐fed irrigation 335 700 1,500 Total 385 1,000 2,000

Table17.12 Areas Under Small Scale Irrigation in 2010, Extrapolated to 2030 and 2050

17.5.4 Commercial Farming EnterprisesThe area under commercial cultivation in the Deltais currently restricted to around 1,000 acres (405 ha)on thenorth easternpart of theTARDA landholding,althoughonlypartofthearea isproductive. Intheory,thisareacouldbeextendedontolandintheLowerDelta.In practice, there are severe limitations affecting thecultivationofthelatterarea,includinglackofasuitableirrigationsupplyandhighrisksoffloodinundationanddestructionofinfrastructureifgravityfedirrigationweretobeextendedintothisarea.

Under Scenario A it is assumed that the potential oftheexistingfarmingarea in theUpperDelta (betweenthePrimateReserve andGarsen–WituRoad)will berealised throughcultivationof areas that are currentlyfallow, improvedmanagement and husbandry and theuseofbettercropvarieties.Thetotalareaofpotentialarable land on the eastern side of theUpperDelta isover 2,000 hectares, and it is assumed that all of this landwill be brought into use either as commercial orcommunity- based farmland. Table 17.13 shows apotentialprogrammeforexpansionofthisareafromthecurrent385hectares to2,000hectares.Noadditionalcommercial farming areas are added to the south of the Garsen-Witu road. Instead, that areawould become anewdevelopmentareaforcommunityandsubsistencefarming. Current yields for rice are 3.5 tonnes perhectare,whileformaizearearound1.5tonnesperha.ItisassumedthatRiceyieldscanbeincreasedto5tonnesper hectare by 2030 and then 7 tonnes/ha by 2050whileMaize increases to3andthen5 tonnes/hectareoverthesametimehorizons.

17.5.5 Water DemandUnder existing practice, most subsistence cultivationtakesplaceonrain-fedlandorareaspreviouslyfloodedduring thewet season. It is assumed that there is nochangeunderScenarioA.Consequentlytherewouldbenoincreaseinwaterdemand.Ontheotherhand,areasunder irrigationforricewouldrequirearound700mmoveragrowingseasonof150days.ThegrossamountanddailyrequirementsareshowninTable 17.14.


Table17.13 Commercial Farming Practice in 2010, Extrapolated to 2030 and 2050

Table 17.14 Water Demand for Irrigated Crops

Table17.15 Employment/Livelihood in Agriculture

Table 17.16 Gross Value of Agricultural Produce (KSh Million)

Table 17.17 Freshwater and Marine Fisheries in 2010, Extrapolated to 2030 and 2050

Description 2010 2030 2050 Crop type Area

(Ha) Yield (Tonnes)

Value (USD)

Area (Ha)

Yield (Tonnes)

Value (USD)

Area (Ha)

Yield (Tonnes)

Value (USD)

Rice 70 250 125,000 200 1,000 500,000 400 2,800 1.4 m Maize 315 470 110,000 800 2,400 550,000 1600 8,000 1.8 m

Parameter 2010 2030 2050 Gross demand (million m3/year) 2.7 7 14 Daily demand over 150 day growing season (m3/day) 1,7966 46,666 93,333

All prices based on Mundi (2013)Rice : 500$/tonne Maize: 230$/tonne

Type of Farming 2010 2030 2050 Subsistence cultivation 12,409 41,827 75,721 Commercial /Irrigated 77 200 400 Total 12,486 42,027 79,721

Type of Farming 2010 2030 2050 Subsistence cultivation 183 309 557 Commercial /Irrigated 20 84 269 Total 203 393 826

Assessment Criteria Year

2010 2030 2050 All Households in Delta 19,885 33,550 60,595

Farming HH in the Delta 9,943 16,775 30,298

Nominal value of food produced KSh Million 183 309 557


17.5.6 Employment and LivelihoodsThe cumulative totals for the number of livelihoods/jobs created by expansion of subsistence farmingare shown inTable 17.11 and an estimate of jobs incommercialfarmingbasedononeFTEperfivehectaresofricepaddy/maizecultivation,hasbeenaddedtothesein Table 17.15.

17.5.7 Economic ValueThe value of food produced for subsistence has been estimatedusingtheformulaappliedinparagraph16.5.4.

Table 17.16 draws together the information on grossvalueofbothsubsistencecultivationandcommunalandcommercial farming.

17.6 Fishing17.6.1 Freshwater and Marine Capture Fisheries

17.6.1.1 Area and ExtentFishingforfreshwaterspecieshasdeclinedinrecentyearsduetotheimpactofreducedfloodflowsonspawningand food sources in both the main river channels but also inox-bowlakesandothernaturalwaterbodies(NatureKenya,2012).Marinefishinghasnotbeenaffectedsoseverely,althoughreductionsintheamountofsiltandorganicdebrisreachingthemouthoftheRiverTanaarethoughttohavehadsomeeffectonfishinginthecoastalzone. Table 17.17showscurrentlevelsofproductionin2010, togetherwith extrapolated (arbitrary) growth insupply in2030and2050.Bothfreshwaterandmarinefisheries are assumed to contribute to the increase inyieldandvalueoffishcaught.The increasesshown inTable 17.17arearbitraryvalues.

17.6.1.2 Water DemandThecriticalissueforallformsoffishingandfishfarmingrelates to the availability of good quality water atessentialperiodsinthefishbreedingandrearingcycle.Precise quantities cannot be estimated but the basicrequirement to satisfy maintenance of healthy riverand oxbow lake fisheries will be preservation of theenvironmentalreserveandminimumflowof60m3/secintheRiverTana.

17.6.1.3 Employment and LivelihoodsThe number of livelihoods supported by both typesof fishery is estimated inTable 17.18, using the same criteriasetoutinsection17.6.3.

17.6.1.4 Economic ValueEstimatesofthevalueoffishcatchesareshowninTable17.17.

17.6.2 AquacultureIn linewiththeoverallemphasisonextendingexistinglivelihoods,itcanbeanticipatedthatfishfarmingwouldbecome more important over time and allowance ismadeforthecreationofonefishfarmin80villagesoverthe plan period.

17.6.2.1 Area and ExtentEachfish farmwould consist of fiveponds, eachwithanaveragesizeof500m2.Furtherdetailsaresetoutinsection18.6.

17.6.2.2 Water DemandFishfarmswouldbesuppliedwithwaterdirectfromtheRiverTana.Therewouldbelossesthroughseepageandevaporation,butonascalecommensuratewithnormalflowsthroughtheDelta.

17.6.2.3 Employment and LivelihoodsEighty (80) full time job equivalentswould be createdforpermanentworkers,witharequirementforpart-timeassistanceinharvestingthecatch.

17.6.2.4 Economic ValueItisassumedthatupto5.5tonnesoffishayearcouldbeharvestedbyeachvillagecommunityatanaveragepriceof35KSh/KgyieldingatotalofKSh15.4million.

17.7 Bee Keeping17.7.1 Area and ExtentThere is considerable potential to expand areas offorage for bees and to increase the number of hives ineachcommunityandthisScenarioassumesthatthecurrent scale of production of honey is doubled by2030andtrebledby2050(SeeTable 17.19).However,the capacity to increase production will be governedinpracticeby theconditionof forests,woodlandsandother areaswith extensive acacia and other floweringtreespecies.Iftheseareasareclearedtomakewayforotherlanduses,theseyieldscouldnotbesustained.

17.7.2 Water DemandBeesrequireaccesstowateratalltimesoftheyearbutthequantitiesarenotsignificantatadelta-widescale.

17.7.3 Employment and LivelihoodsThenumber of full time jobs that could be created inbeekeeping is estimated at 140 in2010, 480 in2030and 720 in 2050. Based on part time beekeeping tosupplementotherformsofincome,withanaverageyieldof50kgperbeekeeper thenumberswouldbe1,460,4,800and7,200respectively.


Table 17.18 Employment in Freshwater and Marine Fisheries

Table 17.19 Projections of Honey Production from 2010 to 2030 and 2050

Table 17.20 Employment and Livelihoods in Natural Resource Harvesting

Table 17.21 Income from Non Timber Forest Products and Wetlands in 2010, 2030 and 2050

Type of Activity 2010 2030 2500 Inland fisheries 250-‐500 666 1,000 Marine fisheries 200 333 366 Totals 450-‐700 1,000 1,366

Year 2010 2030 2050 No of Hives 12,150 24,000 36,000 000 Kgs 68-‐96 240 360 KSh Million 20-‐29 72 180

Source of employment/Livelihood 2010 (FTE) 2030 (FTE) 2050 (FTE) Harvesting 4,971 8,365 15,144 Building Construction 540-‐725 1,295-‐1,740 2,878-‐3,863 Charcoal and Fuel wood 4,971 8,365 15,144 Total 10,482-‐10,667 18,025 – 18,470 33,166-‐34,151


17.7.4 Economic ValueThevalueofannualproductionisshowninTable 17.19.

17.8 Natural Resources17.8.1 Area and ExtentAwide variety of fruits, nuts, fungi, honey, medicinalplants and building materials are harvested from the marshes, reed beds, grassland and forests of the Tana Delta, as discussed under the existing situation.Opportunities to extend the current level of activitymightexist if the forestsandwoodlandsaremanagedsustainably, but this would depend upon findingalternativeenergysourcestocharcoalandfirewoodasdiscussed in the SEA.

17.8.2 Water DemandAs noted in the Existing Situation analysis, water isliterallyvitaltothehealthygrowthofvegetationwhichunderpinsallformsofnaturalresourceexploitation.Theforests, swamps, grasslands and other habitats of theTanaDeltaareadirectproductof thehistoricpatternofrainfall,floodingandnormalflowsintheRiverTana.Consequently current demand directly matches theRiverTana’snaturalflowregime.

17.8.3 Employment and LivelihoodsInformation on the value created under the differentheadings of harvesting fruits, house construction andcharcoal and fuel wood production is given in Tables17.22-24. It is summarised below inTable 17.20. The number of full time jobs in house building has beencalculatedbycomparingthenumberof jobscreatedin2010 (Odhengo et al,2012a)withthevalueofmaterialsand arriving at a range between KSh 447,724 and601,111 per job and then grossing up the numbers of jobs against the material costs in 2030 and 2050.

17.8.4 Economic ValueTaking the formula adopted for existing situation of1 individual per 4 households deriving an income of KSh16,000/annum from natural products the grossincomefortheDeltaisshowninTable 17.21.

Themainusesofnatural resourceswouldcontinue tobe for:1. building materials (Grass/reeds/poles/ withies [for

weaving]/mudandskins,2. Fuel(charcoalandfirewood)3. food4. water

Table 17.22 Annual Consumption of all Natural Building Materials in 2010, 2030 and 2050

Note:CombinesbothPokomoandOrmaHousingRequirements(NewBuildandRepairs/Reconstruction)


17.8.5 Building MaterialsTable 17.22 takes the information on consumption ofnatural materials for housing construction from theexisting situation (see section 16.8.6). By 2030, thenumberofnewhousesbeingconstructedeachyearwillhaverisenfrom600to1,000andby2050,theannualcompletion rate will need to be over 1,800 houses.Repairs and reconstruction are assumed to rise on anequivalent basis.

By 2030 the value of annual house construction willhaverisenfromKSh100milliontoKSh169million,withafurtherincreasetoKSh305millionby2050.

Charcoal and Fuelwood: Table 17.23 shows the consequences of increasedpopulationlevelsintheDeltaintermsofthedemandforcharcoalandfuelwoodontheassumptionthatthereisnosubstitutionofenergysourcesinScenario A.

17.9 Tourism17.9.1 Area and ExtentThepotentialoftheTanaDeltatoattractvisitorsoneco-tourism trips to see the coastline, mangroves, forests andgrasslandsofthefloodplainisveryhigh.However,the current level of activity in the Tana Delta is lowdespite its considerable attractions. Themain reasons

Table 17.23 Charcoal and Firewood Production in 2010, 2030 and 2050

for low activity are limited capacity in management,low public awareness and lack of marketing and theperceptionsofsecurityrisksarisingfromrecentconflictsinthecoastalregionandDelta.UnderScenarioAtheseconstraintsarenotexpected tochangesignificantly inthe coming decades.This is because rising populationwill accelerate the competition for land and waterleadingtointensificationofthecurrentsocialunrest.Inconsequenceonlyslightincreasesintourismactivityareprojected. (See Table 17.24)

17.9.2 Water DemandTherewouldbenosignificantincreaseinwaterdemandbytourismunderthisscenario.

17.9.3 Employment and LivelihoodsThenumberoffulltimeequivalentjobswouldrisefrom200 in 2010, to 400 in 2030 and 600 in 2050.

17.9.4 Economic ValueGrowthinturnoverisshowninTable 17.24.

17.10 Trade, Commerce and Financial Services17.10.1 Wholesale and Retail TradeUnder Scenario A there would be few incentives forexpanding the wholesale and retail trade beyond the


requirements created by an expansion in the absolutenumberofpeoplelivingintheDelta.Initially,theincreaseinpopulationcouldbeexpectedtoincreasethevolumeoftradingactivitybutaspressureonresourcesincrease,the value of trade per capita would fall, matchingincreasinglevelsofpovertyanddestitution.

17.10.1.1 Area and ExtentThe full range of activities discussed in the baselinesituation would continue to apply. Transportationwould remainamajoractivity includingboth roadandwater-borne transport of people and goods. Tradingandmarketingwouldalsocontinuetorepresentamajorpartofthelocaleconomy,reflectingtheproductionoffruits likemangoes, surplus food crops, fish, milk andmeatproductsandtheirsaletocommunitiesinthearidareas surrounding the Tana Delta. Import of cloth, tools, utensilsandotherstaplefoodproductswouldcontinueto takeplace to supplementwhatpeople in theDeltacould produce for themselves. In addition, there area range of standard activities found in any rural andsemi-urbancommunities likebankingandmicro-credit,machineryrepairandironmongery,tailoring,waterandbeveragesales,electricityandtele-communications.ThemainmarketcentreswouldremainatGarsenandWitualthough Tarasaa and several roadside junctions alsohave stores. Table 17.25 illustrates this element of the localeconomy.

17.10.1.2 Water DemandAsnotedundertheExistingSituation,anydemandforwater from trading commerce andfinancial services isverylowandsubsumedwiththeestimatesfordomesticuse.

17.10.1.3 Employment and LivelihoodsUndertheexistingsituationanalysisinChapter16thenumberoffulltimejobequivalentsintradeisestimatedat3,488FTEs.Pro-rataincreaseintradingactivitybasedonhouseholdformationgivesanestimated5,870FTEsin2030and10,628FTEsin2050.UnderScenarioAitisassumedthattheshareoftransportation,tradingandmarketinginthelocaleconomywillgrowinproportiontotheoverallsizeofthepopulation.

17.10.1.4 Economic ValueTheincreaseintradingactivityforindividualhouseholdsisshowninTable 17.25.

Taking the growth of trading, wholesale and retailactivitiesasacompletesectortheincreaseineconomicvalueisassessedbyapplyingpro-rataratesbasedontheshare of the national economy (see section15.4.5 forbasisof thecalculation).Assumingthattradeaccountsfor10.8%ofGDP,theequivalentfiguresfortheDeltawould be KSh 1,243 million in 2030 and KSh 1,588million in 2050.

Description 2010 2030 2050 Number of international visitors 275 500 1,000 Turnover generated by international visitors 16,500 30,000 60,000 Number of national visitors 5,225 10,000 15,000 Turnover generated by local visitors 26,125 50,000 75,000

Description 2010 2030 2050 All households 19,885 33,462 60,577 Trading component per household KSh 3,753-‐5,756 3,753-‐5,756 3,756-‐5,756 Income generation for all households (KSh millions)

74-‐114 126-‐193 227-‐349

Table 17.24 Levels of Tourism Activity with turnover in US$ in 2010, 2030 and 2050

Table 17.25 Trading and Marketing in the Delta in 2010, 2030 and 2050


17.10.2 Professional ServicesAverysmallnumberofpeopleareemployedwithintheDelta in professional fields such as banking, teaching,surveying and veterinary services, etc. The number ofprofessionals would increase proportionately to thegrowthinpopulationbuttherewouldbenoincentivesto attractmore teachers, nurses and doctors or otherskilledworkerstothearea.

17.10.3 Public AdministrationThepublicsectorincludesstaffworkingfortheCountyGovernments(formerlyemployedindistrictpositionsbythenationalgovernment).Asinthecaseofprofessionalservices, this sector currently makes up only a smallcomponent of economic activity although under thenewly devolved functions of County Governmentsits importance will grow. Nevertheless, unless theeconomy of the Tana Deltawas to grow significantly,which is unlikely under ScenarioA, the level of publicadministration would remain low relative to othercounties.ApplyingthenationalequivalentcontributiontoGDPof11.1%givesafigureofKSh1,277millionin2030 and KSh 1,632 million in 2050.

17.11 Mining and Industry17.11.1 Area and ExtentMiningactivitiesareminimalintheDeltaatthepresenttime.Thereisharvestingofsandandseasaltespeciallyin the Southern part of the District. There is also the potential for titanium prospecting in the Delta. TheareaandextentofminingactivitycouldincreaseunderScenarioA,regardlessofthepatternofother landuseactivitiesbeingconsidered.

Industrial activities are also very minimal at present.Themain ricemill has recently been rehabilitated andis managed by TARDA but is only operating at about30% of its capacity due to low rice production.Mostcommercial activities are of cottage industry scale orareinformalinnatureandincludefurnituremaking,matmaking, homebasedoil extraction andbuttermaking.Theseformpartofthesubsistenceeconomyandwouldcontinue to represent the main economic activitiesunder Scenario A.

17.11.2 Water DemandThe current level of industrial and mining activity inthe Tana Delta does not generate a significant waterdemand and the extent to which new developmentmightalter thiswoulddependonthetypeofmineralsbeingexploited.

17.11.3 Employment and LivelihoodsWith the exception of salt processing, for which anestimated 50 FTEs are involved, the contribution of

this sector to employment and incomes is minimal.Exploration has recently commenced for oil and gaswithintheLamusectionoftheTanaDelta.Performanceoftherestofthelocaleconomywouldnotbeacriticalfactor in determining whether or not the industrialand mining sector expanded under Scenario A but any growth would have limited benefits for the localcommunity in theabsenceof skills trainingandhigheroverall educational attainment for the majority ofresidents.Localpeoplewouldcontinuetofinditdifficulttosecureemployment in industryandminingbecausecompanieswouldprefertohirewell trainedspecialistsfrom outside the Tana Delta.

CommunitieslivingintheDeltaareengagedinvariouseconomicactivitiesrangingfromcropfarming,livestockkeeping,fishing,informaltradeandseasonalandformalemployment(SeeTable 17.26).

Occupation Percent (%) Herdsman (pastoralists) 38.9 Keeping livestock 8.3 Business man/woman 1.7 Farming and livestock 8.9 Farming 35.6 Employed 6.7 Total 100.0

Table 17.26: The Economic Activities of Tana River Delta Communities

17.11.4 Economic ValueTheworldpriceexmineforseasalt in2010wasUSD180/tonneaccordingtotheUSGeologicalsurvey. NosignificantincreaseinminingactivityisanticipatedunderScenarioA so thevalueof estimatedproduction fromtheDeltaareawouldremainaroundUSD3.06million.

17.12 Infrastructure17.12.1 ServicesTheTanaDeltahasthebenefitofamajorroadpassinground its perimeter and linking Malindi (and the restof the southern coastal towns) to Garsen, and Lamu.However, until the advent of the LAPSSET corridorand Lamu Port project, this route had been seriouslyneglected and even today some parts of the road areseverelypot-holed–especially theextensionnorth toHola and Garissa.

Source: HVA International, 2007


The remainder of the road network in the Delta toTarasaa, Kipini and other areas within the Delta aregravel-boundorbeatenearth.

Electricity supplies to the principal settlements havebeensignificantlyupgradedwith theconstructionofanewnationalgridpowerlinelinkingMombasaandLamu.Muchoftheruralareaiswithoutelectricity.

17.12.2 TransportThere would continue to be improvements toinfrastructureunderScenarioA,drivenbytheeconomicinvestmentsbeingmadeinadjoiningcounties,includingthe Lamu Port development. However, it would bedifficult to make a strong case for new road buildingwithintheDeltaPlanAreaifsubsistenceagricultureandtraditional formsof cattle rearing continued to be themainstayoftheeconomy,sincetherewouldberelativelylittleimport-exporttraffic.

An assessment of the value of transport and communicatioinstotheTanaDeltaeconomyismadebyapplyingthepro-ratanationalcontributionof12.4%ofGDP.ThisyieldsfiguresofKSh1,427millionin2030andKSh1,823millionin2050.

17.13 Administration and Professional ServicesThere is a small public administration operatingwithin the Tana Delta including County Governmentemployees, workers from the Government parastatalorganisations,teachersanddoctors/nursesattachedtolocalclinics.Aguidetothevalueofadministrationandprofessionalservices, includinghealthandeducationisgivenbyapplyingthenationalpercentageofthissector(11.1%) to the Tana Delta local economy. This yieldsfigures of KSh 1,277 million in 2030 and KSh 1,632million in 2050. However, these estimates probablyover-emphasisethereturnsfromthissectorbecauseintheabsenceofsignificantgrowthintheeconomyunderScenarioAwageswould remain low andmany posts,

lying in isolated areas would remain unattractive tocareer-consciouspublicsectorworkers.

Similarconcernswouldaffectprofessionalworkersandthere would be few incentives for establishing smallprivatecompaniesgiventhelimitedmarketsthatwouldexistwithintheDelta.

17.14 Urban AreasTheexistingcentresofGarsen,Witu,TarasaaandKipini,amongstothers,wouldcontinuetoexpandbutwithoutthe impetusofmajor external investment.Basedon apro-rataincreaseinareatomatchtherisingpopulation,it isassumedthat theurbanareawouldgrowfrom itspresentestimated2,620hectaresto4,400ha in2030and8,300hain2050.

17.15 Water Resources17.15.1 Water ConsumptionWaterconsumptionwillincreasewithrisingpopulationand the increase in farming and livestock rearing.Theuseofwater is accounted for under each typeofeconomicor livelihoods activity.There is thereforenoseparate breakdown of information under area anddemand or employment. However, it is important tonotethatwaterhasarealvalue,whetheritispaidforassuppliedbyapublicutilityorreceivedasafreegoodasrainorcollectedfromariver.Forthisreason,thevalueofwateriscalculatedinthesescenariosatthesamerateatwhichischargedtocommunitieswhorelyonkiosksandstandpipeswhichisKSh100per1000litres(1m3).

Domestic Consumption:Thecurrentlowlevelofdomesticwaterconsumption,assumed tobe20 litresperhead,(Mati,2006)should riseonhumanitariangrounds toaminimumof40litresperheadby2030andtodoublethisamountby2050 (i.e80 litres/head) (SeeTable 17.27). ThisisstillonlyhalfthecurrentpercapitaconsumptioninthemajorurbancentresofNairobiandMombasa.

Table 17.27 Domestic Water Consumption


Table 17.28 Livestock Water Consumption

Table 17.29 Water Demands for Farming and Irrigation

Livestock watering will also add significantly to overallwater consumption, as shown in Table 17.28. Water consumption by Zebu cattle equates to 12-20 litres/head/day (FAO) while sheep and goats consume onetenth of this amount.

Farming and Irrigation: The expansion of subsistenceand community farming areas will result in additionalpumped and gravity irrigation schemes and create ademandfor27,000m3/dayin2030,risingtoatotalof55,000 m3/dayby2050.(SeeTable 17.29).

Total water consumption for all demands except theenvironmentalreserveisshowninTable 17.30.

TheequivalentflowratestosupportthislevelofwaterabstractionareshowninTable 17.31.

Waterconsumption forall formsofabstractionbeginstomake an appreciable impact on available river flowby 2030 (taking 0.8% in 2030 and 1.8% in 2050).However direct abstraction is far less significant than

therequirementwhichwouldexisttoprovidesufficientwatertomaintaingrasslandandrangelandinaconditioncapable of sustaining themassive increase in stockingdensity.This is assessed separately in the SEA report.However, as described under the existing situation insection 16.12most of thewaterwhich flows throughthe Idsowe Bridge is required tomaintain the naturalvegetation and grasslands of the Tana Delta duringthedryseasonandanydecrease innatural riverflowsbelowamonthlyaverageofsixtycubicmetresofwaterper second (60m3/sec) as a result of developmentupstream would rapidly affect the capacity of thesystem tomaintain the livelihoods and biodiversity oftheDelta.Thisfigureof60m3/second is referredtoasthe environmental reserve.

17.16 Nature Conservation and BiodiversityTheassessmentofnatureconservationandbiodiversityis divided into two sub-sections; the first considersopportunities for promoting development of the


Table 17.30 Daily Demand for Water in 2010, 2030 and 2050

Table 17.31 Effect of Abstraction on Tana River Flows

resource and its economic potentialwhile the seconddealswithfuturechallenges.

17.16.1 Opportunities for Promoting DevelopmentThe scope for promoting nature conservation througheconomic development is extremely limited underScenario A because all growth patterns (population,farming area, livestock numbers and natural resourceconsumption) will lead to significant land conversion,thus reducing the attractiveness of the Tana Delta towildlifeandtohumanenjoymentoftheresource.

17.16.2 ChallengesAll formsofhumanactivity intheDeltawould imposeincreasedstressonthenaturalenvironmentbyreducingtheareaofhabitatsandincreasingdemandsforgrazing,farmingandwateruptake.

Area and ExtentPopulation growth:UnderScenarioAurbanareaswouldexpandfrom26km2to44km2 in2030and80km2 in 2050.

Livestock increase:Currentstockingdensitiesarecloseto,andattimesexceed,thecarryingcapacity6 of the Delta basedontheconversionofnaturalvegetationtopoorerquality grasses andheavyovergrazingwhichoccurs inthedryseasons.Iffurtherincreasesinlivestockdensitywere to takeplace (SeeTable 17.32) thiswouldcausesignificant competition and conflict with the nativepopulationofwildherbivoresandwill rapidlydiminishthe Tana Delta’s value as an Important BirdArea andRamsarsite.Itwouldalsoresultinincreasedpressureonadjacenthabitats(i.e.woodlandandthicketandscrub).

Expansion in the size of the permanent cattle herd toover350,000headby2030wouldresultinthelossofall natural habitats that sustain any form of grasslandor scrub layer and would be incompatible with anyattemptstocontinuetofarmareasoftheDeltaforeithersubsistence or commercial purposes.

Farming:Upto50km2ofscruborthicket,wouldneedtobeclearedandconvertedtopermanentcultivationby2030 to support the level of subsistence farming required tofeedtheresidentpopulation(at3acres/household),with a further 40 km2 being required by 2050. Basedontheprojectionsquotedabove,biodiversitywouldbegreatlyreduced.Wildlifewouldbesignificantlyaffectedthroughreductioninfeedingareas,increasedcompletionwith livestock, human/wildlife conflict and overalldisturbanceof thehabitatswhichcouldbe reducedtolessthan50%oftheircurrentextent.These issuesareexaminedinmoredetailintheSEAReport.

17.16.2 Wildlife corridorsInitially–forperhapstenyearsorso–thefiveexistingcorridorsusedbymigratinganimalswouldcontinuetoexistunderScenarioA,butwithexpandingpopulationand increased competition between farming andlivestock rearing the level of human/wildlife conflictcould be expected to increase rapidly. Eventually thepointwouldbereachedatwhichmostlargeherbivoreswould cease to use the routes due to development,competitionandencroachmentbyotherlanduses.

17.17 SummaryTable 17.33 provides an overall summary of ScenarioAwhich can be comparedwith the data given in theexistingsituationanalysis.

6It must be stressed that the reference to carrying capacity in preceding paragraphs refers only to the notional capacity of the Tana Delta to provide sufficient grassland and water to sustain the number of TLU quoted. This assessment is purely for livestock and does not take into consideration the needs of any other forms of land use or economic activity, either present or planned within the Delta.


Table 17.32 Prediction of Tropical Livestock Units in 2030 and 2050, and Equivalent Areas at Different Stocking Densities


Component Measure/Unit 2010 2030 2050 Population Thousands 102 175 315 Workforce Thousands 52 87 158 Urban Area Km2 26.2 34 49 Industrial land Hectares 10 70 130 Open Grazing Area occupied (Km2) 1,128 2,314 4,179 Cattle-‐ Maximum number 735,000 735,000 735,000 Cattle -‐ Minimum number 220,000 220,000 220,000 Cattle -‐ Average number 477,500 477,500 477,500 Average value (KSh 12,000/head) in KSh Billion 5.7 5.7 5.7 Ranches (Delta) Area occupied (Ha) 9,200 9,200 9,200 Cattle -‐ Maximum number (TLU)(3ha/hd) 530 530 530 Cattle-‐ Minimum number (TLU) (7ha/hd) 174 174 174 Cattle -‐ Average number (TLU) 352 352 352 Average value of cattle (KSh Million) 3.2 3.2 3.2 Farming Area Occupied (Km2) 3 acres/HH N/A 501 908 Subsistence (Area Km2) 1.5 acres/HH 62 104 189 Subsistence farming (people supported ‘000s) 51 88 158 Value of subsistence crops (KSh million) 183 309 557 Irrigated land (Ha) 385 1,000 2,000 Labourers (‘000) based on area (1.5 or 3 acres) 12.4 31 56 Commercial farm (Has) 450 1000 2,000 Commercial farms value (KSh million) 20 84 269 Fishing ’000Kgs/annum 613 750 1,000 Value (KSh million) 34.5 65 89 Aquaculture Value of annual harvest (KSh million) 15.4 15.4 15.4 Bee keeping Number of hives 12,150 24,000 36,000 Honey (000 Kg) 82 240 360 Value (KSh million) 25 72 180 Natural Products Average area for required for harvesting (Km2) 70 123 222 People engaged 4,971 8,365 15,144 Income generated from NTFP (KSh million) 80 134 242 Value of building (KSh million) 325 779 1,730 Charcoal / Firewood -‐ average (‘000 tonnes) 58.7 102.5 185 Value of Charcoal and Firewood (KSh million 194 396 714 Tourism Turnover (Value ‘000USD) 26 50 75 Industry & Mining Area Involved 0.5 0.5 0.5 Turnover KSh million 257 257 257 Water Demand Domestic (m3/day) 2,040 6,900 25,200 Commercial / Industrial (m3/day) 0 1,500 1,500 Livestock (drinking) (m3/day) 4,784 8,116 14,658 Farming (Plant uptake) (m3/day) 10,548 27,397 54,795 Environmental Reserve (million m3/day) 5.2 5.2 5.2 Biodiversity 1407 Km2 Prime Habitats = 100 100 <50 <50

Table 17.33 Summary of Scenario A


CHAPTER

18 SCENARIO B – COMMERCIAL DEVELOPMENT

18.1 IntroductionUnderScenario B it is assumed that all forms of commercial developmentwould be encouraged in the interests ofstimulatingtheeconomyandregardlessofanyadversesocial or environmental consequences. It is also assumed thatpopulationgrowthanddemandsforfoodandwateridentifiedunderScenario AwouldapplytoScenario B, intheabsenceofanyplannedintervention.Inpractice,therangeofcommercialdevelopmentoptionswouldbeconstrained by competition for land, water and otherresources but these issues are examined separately intheSEAanalysis.

18.2 PopulationUnderScenario BitisassumedthattheprojectionsforfuturepopulationgrowthintheDeltaarethesameisinScenario A.

18.3 Economic ActivityThere isanextensivebodyofacademictheoryaroundtheevolutionofeconomicactivity,beginningwith theexploitation of natural resources in any region usinghand tools and progressing to full mechanisation.Classic locational theory (Weber, 1909) emphasisesthe importance of transportation costs, labour costsandeconomiesof scale indetermining the locationofheavy industry and applies particularly to bulky andheavy goods. Growing of cotton exemplifies theseissues.Itcanonlybegrowninhotortropicalconditionswith adequatewater, but processing involves the useof capital intensive equipment (Ginning mills). Trading and trading partnerships become important in fixingthelocationofsecondaryorindirecteconomicactivity,includingvalueaddition inconverting the rawproductinto textiles. With refined products the location ofsubsequent manufacturing processes can become even more flexible and external influences like perceptionand fashion become important, hence the emergence ofcities likeMilan in Italyasworld leaders inclothingproduction,eventhoughtheyarenowfarremovedfromthesourceofrawmaterials.

Traditional theories of industrial location have lessrelevance for manymodern forms of high technologyeconomic activity like computer manufacturingwhereaccess tohigh levelsofeducationalattainment, skilledoperatives and research institutions becomes criticalcombinedwithscopeformeetinghighqualitylifestylesofkeyworkers.Neverthelessthetraditionaltheoriesof

industriallocationstillapplyandhavebeenreworkedinanumberofcountriesusingtheconceptof‘clustering’.This approach recognises that there are major economic advantages in grouping related businesses in the same area. These principles have been applied in developing thevisionforLAPSSET.SurveyshavebeenundertakentoidentifyexistingcoreactivitiesinNorthEastKenyaandthefindingshavebeenusedtodevelopspecific‘cluster’concepts for towns and sub-regions in the LAPSSETcorridor. A number of the ‘business case projections’have direct relevance to the Tana Delta and have been used to support the development of this scenario.

The RiverTana and theTanaDelta are, themselves, apotentialmajor resource for thePortofLamuand thenew economies of the sub-region. A rapidly growingpopulation in the new town, rising to a projected 1.5million people by 2050, will create demands for thewholerangeofconsumergoods,includingfood,water,building and constructionmaterials, furnishings,whitegoods,educational,medicalandleisurefacilities.Manyof these consumables will be imported, given theopportunities that the port will create for trade withtheMiddle East andAsian economies. However,TanaDeltaandthecoastalbelt isparticularlywellplacedtoprovideperishablefood,meatanddairyproductstothisgrowingmarketgiventhesub-region’shightemperature,moderate rainfall and potential stored water supplies(throughdevelopmentoftheHighGrandFallsDamandassociated balancing reservoir, providing this essentialcomponent is included in the eventual development plan).

Alogicalextensiontotheproductionofperishablefoodis the manufacture of canned and containerised meat andfoodproducts,andtheexistingroleofGarsenasalivestocktradingmarketexportingcattleonthehooftootherregionscouldbetransformedthroughconstructionofprocessingfactoriestoaddvaluedirectlytothefoodchain.Forallofthesereasonsopportunitiestomaximiseon production of natural resources should be seen astheprimeareafor initial investment.Othercashcropsand industrial crops could also be developed to serve nationalandinternationalmarkets,althoughthesemayconflict with other aims for environmental protectionand social development in the Tana Delta.

Another very important consideration in examiningdevelopmentopportunitiesintheTanaDeltaandlowerRiver Tana is the role of transport. At present, road


conditionsarepoor;notwithstandingtherecentupgradetotheroadbetweenGarsenandLamu.However,majorimprovements are planned to the road infrastructure which will result in Garsen occupying a key strategiclocationat the junctionof theMombasa–Lamumainroad, and the northern route from Nairobi, throughGarissaandHolatothecoastalport.Expansionofthehighvoltageelectricitygridhasrecentlytakenplacewithanew440KvpowerlineextendingfromMalinditothePort.

The juxtaposition of road transport, electricity, watersupplies, natural resources and extensive areas oflevel landwhichisphysicallysuitableforindustrialandcommercialdevelopmentallfavourtheselectionoftheGarsenareaas a focalpoint andcentre for theLowerRiverTanaandDeltaarea.

18.3.1 DefinitionBased on the ideas discussed above, the full rangeof economic activities listed in the expanded ISIC

Section Description A Agriculture, forestry and fishing B Mining and Quarrying C Manufacturing D Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply E Water supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation activities F Construction G Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles H Transportation and storage I Accommodation and food service activities J Information and communication K Financial and insurance services L Real estate activities M Professional. Scientific and technical services N Administrative and support service activities O Public administration and defence, compulsory social security P Education Q Human health and social work activities R Arts, entertainment and recreation S Other service activities T Activities of households as employers, undifferentiated goods and services

producing activities of households for own use U Activities of extraterritorial organisations and bodies

(International Standard Industrial Classification) (419classes in total) has been examined and those sectorsand activities that are thought to have potential fordevelopmentareidentifiedinTables 18.1 and 18.2. All divisionsarerepresentedbyatleastoneclassofactivity.Thoseareasofeconomicactivitywhichhavenotbeenemphasised include manufacturing of paper, chemicals, metalandnon-metallicproducts.Thesecomponentsareomittedbecauseiftheyaretobedevelopedintheregionthen the most logical location would be close to theLamuPortwithintheplannedareaforheavyindustrialactivities.

18.3.2 Selection of Economic Classes for Inclusion in Scenario BHavingidentified258classesofeconomicactivitiesthatcould be promotedwithin the Plan area in the periodupto2050anumberofrepresentativeexamplesofthemostlikelyformsofdevelopmenthavebeenselectedinTable 18.2.

Table 18.1 International Standard Industrial Classification – Main Sections


Table 18.2 Potential Development within the Tana Delta up to 2050

Section A Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing Growing of rice Growing of vegetables and melons, roots and tubers Growing of sugar cane Growing of tropical and subtropical fruits Growing of citrus fruits Raising of cattle and buffaloes Raising of sheep and goats Mixed farming Gathering of non-‐wood forest products Fishing Aquaculture Marine aquaculture Freshwater aquaculture Section B Mining and quarrying Extraction of crude petroleum Extraction of natural gas Extraction of salt Section C Manufacturing Processing and preserving of meat Processing and preserving of fish, crustaceans and molluscs Processing and preserving of fruit and vegetables Manufacture of vegetable and animal oils and fats Manufacture of dairy products Manufacture of soft drinks; production of mineral waters and other bottled waters Tanning and dressing of leather; manufacture of luggage, handbags, saddlery and harness; dressing and dyeing of fur Manufacture of other products of wood; manufacture of articles of cork, straw and plaiting materials Manufacture of pharmaceuticals, medicinal chemical and botanical products Section D Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply This section is added to cover construction and installation of solar panel systems Section F Construction Construction of roads and railways Section G Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles Wholesale of agricultural raw materials and live animals Wholesale of food, beverages and tobacco Retail sale in non-‐specialized stores with food, beverages or tobacco predominating Retail sale via stalls and markets Retail sale via stalls and markets of food, beverages and tobacco products Retail sale via stalls and markets of textiles, clothing and footwear Retail sale via stalls and markets of other goods Retail trade not in stores, stalls or markets Section H Transportation and storage Other passenger land transport Inland water transport Inland passenger water transport Inland freight water transport Service activities incidental to land transportation Service activities incidental to water transportation Section I Accommodation and food service activities Short term accommodation activities Camping grounds, recreational vehicle parks and trailer parks Section M Professional, scientific and technical activities Research and experimental development on natural sciences and engineering


Section A Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing Growing of rice Growing of vegetables and melons, roots and tubers Growing of sugar cane Growing of tropical and subtropical fruits Growing of citrus fruits Raising of cattle and buffaloes Raising of sheep and goats Mixed farming Gathering of non-‐wood forest products Fishing Aquaculture Marine aquaculture Freshwater aquaculture Section B Mining and quarrying Extraction of crude petroleum Extraction of natural gas Extraction of salt Section C Manufacturing Processing and preserving of meat Processing and preserving of fish, crustaceans and molluscs Processing and preserving of fruit and vegetables Manufacture of vegetable and animal oils and fats Manufacture of dairy products Manufacture of soft drinks; production of mineral waters and other bottled waters Tanning and dressing of leather; manufacture of luggage, handbags, saddlery and harness; dressing and dyeing of fur Manufacture of other products of wood; manufacture of articles of cork, straw and plaiting materials Manufacture of pharmaceuticals, medicinal chemical and botanical products Section D Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply This section is added to cover construction and installation of solar panel systems Section F Construction Construction of roads and railways Section G Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles Wholesale of agricultural raw materials and live animals Wholesale of food, beverages and tobacco Retail sale in non-‐specialized stores with food, beverages or tobacco predominating Retail sale via stalls and markets Retail sale via stalls and markets of food, beverages and tobacco products Retail sale via stalls and markets of textiles, clothing and footwear Retail sale via stalls and markets of other goods Retail trade not in stores, stalls or markets Section H Transportation and storage Other passenger land transport Inland water transport Inland passenger water transport Inland freight water transport Service activities incidental to land transportation Service activities incidental to water transportation Section I Accommodation and food service activities Short term accommodation activities Camping grounds, recreational vehicle parks and trailer parks Section M Professional, scientific and technical activities Research and experimental development on natural sciences and engineering

18.4 Livestock18.4.1 Intensive Cattle Ranching

18.4.1.1 Area/ExtentAnassessmentoflivestockrearingpotentialhasalreadybeenmade under ScenarioA. For a commercial scaleof operation to be undertaken reference has beenmadetothebusinesscasedevelopedfortheOlPejetaConservancyRanch in Isioloaspartof the investmentstrategy for the LAPSSET corridor (Monitor Group/MinistryofAgriculture,2012).

This Land Use Plan recognises the great potential toimprove quality, transport and marketing of cattlereared in the arid rangelands of North Eastern Kenyaby purchasing 2-3 cattle each year from up to 5,200pastoralist households, then fattening 8,000 animalsforuptosixmonths (anannualthroughputof16,000)in a specially purchased holding ground, covering60,000 acres before slaughtering them in a purpose builtabattoirandcoldstore,thentransportingdressedcold carcasses to Nairobi. The investment case studyprovides clear evidence that growth in demandwouldjustifythisapproach.

An equivalent scheme in the Tana Delta assumes that a large number of cattle currently raised within theDeltaordriven fromneighbouringarid rangelandswillbefattenedonhighqualitygrasslandbeforebeingsoldandslaughteredthroughanewabattoiratGarsen,fromwhichpointcolddressedcarcasseswillbetransportedinrefrigeratedtruckstoMombasaandNairobi.Theholdingareawould require the setting aside of an equivalentarea of 25,000 ha on wet grassland in the upper orlowerDelta. In thecaseof theOlPejetaConservancymostoftheinvestmentcapital($5.4million)isrequiredtopurchasethe60,000acresof landwiththebalanceneededtobuildnewabattoirandcoldstoragefacilities.Ol Pejeta is a not-for-profit community organisation

which reinvests all profits in the local communities. IntheTanaDelta,much of the land is either communitytrustland,existingranchlandorclaimedbygovernmentagenciesandprivateowners.ThebasiccomponentsofthisenterpriseareshowninTable 18.3.

18.4.1.2 Water DemandTheOlPejetaconservancyandplannedholdinggroundarelocatedinanareawith700mmrainfallayearwhichisalmost double that of the middle and upper Tana Delta. Inorder tocover the riskofdrought, foddercropsaregrownandahaycropistakentogivefourmonths’foodreserves.Bycomparisonpotentialholdingareas in thewetgrasslandonthefloodplainwouldonlybesuitableforsixmonthsoftheyearduetoflooding,soadditionalland would be required on the terraces outside thefloodplain for holding animals during the rains. Eightthousand cattle would require 20 litres/head per dayequatingto60m3/dayduringthedryseason.

18.4.1.3 Employment and LivelihoodsItisassumedthatoneherdsmanwouldbeemployedforevery200headofcattle,representing40permanentjobsincattlemanagement.Additional staffwillbe requiredto purchase cattle, to provide veterinary services, tooperate the abattoir and to organise marketing. Aprovisionalfigureof100employeesisassumed.

18.4.1.4 Economic ValueA scheme designed to acquire 3 cattle per pastoralisthouseholdperyearwouldrepresentinexcessof15%ofeachhouseholds’potentialincomefromcattlesalesfora total of 5,300 households.

Annualturnoverbasedonvalueperhead(liveweight)ofKSh12,000wouldamounttoKSh190million.Assumingthe30%increaseincattlepricescouldbesecuredasisthe case atOlPejeta, the gross turnover in live cattlewouldbeintheregionofKsh250million.Howeverthis


representsonlytheliveweightcomponentandexcludesthevalue-addedcomponentofpreparing cold-dressedcarcases for market. Gross revenue in the case of OlPejeta is in the regionofKSh64,000/carcass,whichgivesavalueofaroundKSh1billion/annum.

18.4.2 Open GrazingThe current practices, whereby cattle are allowed towander acrossmuchof theDelta in searchof grazingwouldhavetobecurtailedunderScenarioBduetotheotherdevelopmentsthatareunderconsideration.Ifanylarge commercial or industrial crop like sugarwere tobeestablishedthiswouldrequireaminimumof10,000hectares for a viable operation with the more likelytarget being 20,000 hectares.

Table 18.4 shows what the net result would be ofwithdrawinggrazing landforotheruses. Ifall theuseslistedweretobecarriedforward,(whichis,infact,highlyunlikelydue toother factors, includingwaterdemand)the overall grazing area would be reduced to around33,000hectares.Mostofthislandwouldbeofmarginalquality and only capable of supporting one animal onthreehectares.Consequently,thefreerangeherdwouldconsistofamaximumof11,000cattle,comparedwiththe 220,000 animals that are currently found in theDelta. The combination of ranched and open grazedcattlewouldmaintainapermanentherdintheDeltaof27,000animals.

Project/Scheme 2013-‐2030 2031-‐2050 Area (Ha) 25,000 25,000 Annual throughput of cattle 16,000 16,000 Water Demand 60m3/day for 180 days 60m3/day for 180 days Employment/Livelihoods 100 100 Capital Investment USD 5.4 million USD 5.4 million Annual turnover – finished meat product KSh 1 billion

USD 12 million KSh 1 billion USD 12 million

Table 18.3 Development of Commercial Cattle Ranching on 25,000 Hectares

Table18.4 Assumptions Relating to the Withdrawal of Grazing Land


18.5 AgricultureThis component of economic activity has the largestnumber of potential classes of development,which ishardlysurprisinggiventheruralstatusoftheTanaDelta,anditsrecenthistoryintermsofspecificdevelopmentproposals. The soils within the Delta are of variablequality. Those on the terraces are generally thin andinfertile and lose moisture content during the dryseasonswhereas those in the floodplain often consistofheavyclaysthataredifficulttoploughandarewater-logged.Atthesametime,however,thereareextensivepockets of good fertile soils enriched by silt broughtdownhistoricallyinannualfloods.

The Tana Delta has high temperatures and humiditywhich make it ideal for growing a range of food andindustrialcrops,includingsugarcane,rice,maize,cotton,tobaccoandsisal,providingtheareasofcultivationcanbe adequately protected fromdrought and flood. It ispossibletogrowtwo,threeandevenfourcropsayearinsomeareaswithveryfertilesoilsandplentyofwater.

Thesecropscanbegrownbyindividualfarmersforlocalconsumptionbutthereiskeeninterestfromcommercialundertakerstodeveloplargefarmingareasforindustrialscaleproduction.Table 18.5showssomeofthemainclassesofcropidentifiedfromtheISICwhichcouldbeconsidered in the Tana Delta.

For most of the examples examined in this scenariothe informationhasbeen assembled fromavarietyofsourcesbut there is onedetailedbusiness casewhichhasbeendevelopedbytheMonitorGrouponbehalfof

Growing of rice Growing of vegetables and melons, roots and tubers Growing of sugar cane Growing of tropical and subtropical fruits Growing of citrus Growing of sunflower

Table 18.5 Main Classes of Crops Suitable for Growing in the Tana Delta

theMinistry ofAgriculture, specifically related to fruit(Mango)growingintheLoweTanaRiveraspartoftheLAPSSETcorridorassessments.Asummary isprovidedin Box 18.1.

18.5.1 Commercial Farming

18.5.1.1. Area and ExtentIn this analysis reference is made only to commercialscaleproduction.Riceproductionrequiresthecreationof level paddy fields that can be inundated prior toplantingandthenallowedtodryoutasthecropmatures.Theexistingarea farmedbyTARDAprovidesa typicalexampleofacommercialholdingof2,400Acres(1,000Ha).

The most demanding use in terms of land area is sugar cane because a minimum area of 10,000 Ha has to be plantedinorderto justifythecostsofbuildingasugarmillandassociatedpowerstation,bagasseandethanolprocessortogetherwithvehiclepark,storesandawiderangeof ancillarybuildings.Once thecoreareaof theestate has been established, additional land may beaddedinordertoimproveeconomiesofscale.Different

BOX 18.1 Mango Production – Business Case for the Lower River Tana

Mangos are one of the fastest expanding fruit crops in Kenya, with annual production increasing by more than 25 % a year since 2005. 98% of production is consumed on the domestic market. The Government is seeking investors to develop a Mango fruit farming enterprise, focusing on the Middle East market and located on the River Tana within the Tana Delta. Kenya has one of the highest yields from mangoes in the world (in excess of 16 tonnes per hectare) with year –round production due to its favourable climate. The Ngowe variety, which has a particularly high sugar content and good flavour can yield 38 tonnes per hectare in the Delta.

The government’s concept and business Plan is based on creation of seven nucleus farms, each of 50 hectares in size located at intervals along the River Tana and positioned so that they can purchase from contracted small-holder farmers with 20 kms radius of each farm. Proposed locations include two in Garissa, one at Hola, three in Garsen and one in Kikpini.

Details are available from:Kenya Ministry of AgricultureKenya LAPSSET Corridor Mango Production Investment Opportunity; May 2012


tenure systems exist although themost efficient haveprovedtobeestatesmanageddirectlybytheoperator,as in the case of Illovo Sugar, Malawi (Illovo, 2010).Additional areas may be farmed by small holders(outgrowers).Previousproposalstoestablishsugarcaneplantations in the Tana Delta have been based on agrossareaof20,000-25,000ha. InthemodeladoptedforthepurposesofScenarioBanEstateof15,000Haisassumedwithanadditionalareaof5000haoperatedbyoutgrowers.

Vegetable, tropical fruit and citrus farming can be established on a much smaller scale than sugar cane Plantationswithviablecommercialfarmsoccupyinglessthan500Hectares, (for example theproposedMangoprojectwith7farmseachof50Ha,SeeBox 18.1).

Sunflower seed production has been included as apotentialcropbecause itcanservebothfoodmarketsas a source of vegetable oil and industrial end uses. Production can take place at awide variety of scalesfrommarketgardenstofullcommercialfarms.

18.5.1.2 Water DemandTheamountofwaterconsumedbyricevariessignificantlywith variety, location and climatic conditions. Somerice strains are adapted to growing in dry soils afterinitial establishment in water. Others are adapted tofloodconditionsandcancontinuetogrowevenwhenthe paddy field is inundated with up to 900 mm ofwater during the ripening season. For Scenario B theassumption ismade thatwater demandwill be in therangefrom450-700mmoveragrowingseasonof150days.basedonFAOfigures(FAO,2004).Vegetablesandmelons are assumed to require400-600mmofwateroveraperiodof120-150days(FAO,2004).Sunflowershave similar requirements. Tropical and Citrus fruits require900-1200mmoveracontinuousgrowingseasonofayear(FAO,2004).Sugarcanealsohasahighwaterdemand of 1500-2500 mm over a year (FAO, 2004).In each case the upper figure of the range has beenadoptedtoreflecthighevapo-transpirationratesintheDelta. Water demand has been calculated in Tables 18.6 and 18.7forthemixofcropsandareasidentifiedinthefollowingsections,assummarisedinTable 18.12.

Table 18.6 Calculation of Water Demand for Commercial Crops under Scenario B in 2030

Table18.7 Calculation of Water Demand for Commercial Crops under Scenario B in 2050


18.5.1.3 Employment and LivelihoodsLevels of employment vary seasonally in commercialfarming.Themostlabourintensiveperiodsareinplantingand harvesting, although weeding and maintenanceduring the establishment of the crop can also demand high inputs. Commercial undertakerswill usually seektokeepthepermanentlabourforceassmallaspossibleto minimise cost and then hire contractors or casual labourersforspecifictasks.

Rice and sugar cane both require large pools oftemporaryworkers. Labour inputs arevery highwhenrice is grown by individual farmers. (In Indonesia theaverage rice farmer supports a family on a holding ofonly0.1-0.5ha).Withlargepaddyfieldsploughingandcombiningcanreducelabourrequirementsdramatically.IntheUSAricefarmsof250acres(104ha)requireonly1fulltimeemployeetooperatetheentireholding.Ithasbeenassumedinthisreportthat100FTEarecreatedforevery1,000haof ricepaddy.Sunflowerproduction ismechanised,exceptforsmallholderfarmingandrequiresvery low labour inputs similar to those for rice in theUSA.

Inthecaseofsugarproduction,areasofcultivationareusuallylargeenoughtomaintainarotationinplanting,cultivationandharvestingsothatmoreorlesspermanentemploymentisrequired.Levelsofefficiencyvarywidelyfrom country to country. In South Africa, the directlabourforceequatestoonefulltimejobequivalent(FTE)per 5 hectares, but the indirect employment includingseasonalworkersis4.4timesgreaterbringingthetotalemploymenttoaround1FTEperhectare.Thisequatesto10,000workerson a10, 000hectare sugar estate.ComparablefiguresarenotavailableforKenyabecausemost sugar is grown under outgrower schemeswhicharemore labour intensive. InScenarioB it is assumedthatanareaof15,000haofsugarcaneplantationwouldrequirealabourforceof15,000workers(bothdirectandindirect labour).

Commercial vegetable farming requires relatively highlabour inputs and a model from Botswana has beenadopted for the Scenario with 4 FTEs per hectare.2,000 employees would be required for a 500 hafarm. Commercial fruit growing also relies on a smallpermanent labourforceofaround10-20FTEsfor500hawithasubstantialseasonalincreaseincasuallabourfor pruning, picking and packing the annual crop.Themodelpresented formangogrowing in theTanaDeltaassumes core commercial farming areas supported byout grower farmers and assumes 1,750 FTEs withinthemain companyon350ha (5FTEs/Ha)with6,000independentgrowers.

18.5.1.4 Economic ValueThe economic justification for each type of farmingenterprisewould need to be considered on a case bycasebasis. Ingeneral,rainfedsmallerscaleoperationsunder1,000havemuchlowercapital investmentcoststhanthoseinvolvinglargeareas5,000Ha+orextensiveirrigation. Estimates for annual turnover provide asimpler form of comparison and have been used in this instance. Production yields and prices are taken fromFAOSTATSifthesourcehasnotbeendirectlyquotedinthetextabove.

In the case of both vegetable and fruit farms, awidevarietyofcropscouldbegrownintheTanaDeltaandarandommixhasbeenchosentoarriveatan‘average’forillustrativepurposes as presented inTables 18.5, 18.6 and 18.7.

A distinction is made between vegetable cropswhichhaveveryhighlabourinputsduetotheneedforstakingand correspondingly high value per kilogramme (e.gtomatoandpeppers)asshowninTable 18.8 and other fieldcropswhicharesuitableforextensivemechanisedcultivation(Table 18.9)buthaverelativelylowvaluesperkilogramme.

AwidevarietyoffruitscanbegrownintheTanaDeltaincluding mangoes, lemons, oranges, limes, pawpaws,passion fruit and bananas among others. Table 18.10 shows current yields and market prices (MombasaDecember 2013) for a selected group.

Clearly a variety of different projects could beconsidered under each type of enterprise (with theexceptionofsugarwheretheamountoflandforasingleproject, needs to be in excess of 100 km2 to coverthe investment inprocessingplant).Formodellingandcomparative purposes it has been assumed that,withtheexceptionofintensivevegetablefarming,5,000Hawouldbeallocatedforeachofthemaintypesoffarmingenterpriseintheperiod2010-2030andafurther5,000Haintheremaining20years,bringingthetotalto10,000Haforeachcroptypeby2050.

In the case of intensive vegetables, the scope for development will be confined by market opportunityand it would be unrealistic to assume that the samearea could be developed in the chosentimehorizons.Instead, the areas involved are reduced to 500 hectares by2030and1,000hectaresby2050.Asimilarapproachhas been adopted for fruit farming.


Table 18.10 Indicative Production and Value for Fruit Crops per Hectare

Table 18.11 Comparative Outputs of Sugar based on 65 tonnes/ha and 100 tonnes/ha Sugarcane

Table18.8 Indicative Production and Value of Intensively Grown Vegetable Crops per Hectare

Table18.9 Indicative Production and Value for Extensively Grown Crops per Hectare


The potential for sugar production depends uponachieving a critical mass in terms of sugar caneproduction to justify investment in excess of 400millionUSD(JohnsonandSeebaluk,2012).Projectionsof the returns on investment would depend on theyieldsestablished. In theory,production in thecoastalregion should allow higher yields to be achieved thaninWesternKenyabecauseof thehigher temperaturesand faster maturing varieties that could be grown.However,Kenya’sperformanceinsugarproductionhasconsistently fallen below expectations and in recentyearsoutputofcaneperhectarehasbeenintheregionof65tonnescomparedwithitspotentialof100tonnes(JohnsonandSeebaluk,2012).ThedifferenceinoutputisshownbelowinTable 18.11.

Bothof thesefigureshavebeen incorporated inTable 18.12 to allow comparisons to be made with otheragricultural projects.

18.5.2 Subsistence FarmingUnder Scenario B it is assumed that the existingpopulation(andnaturalincrease)wouldbesupportedbymaintainingtheexistingpatternofsubsistencefarming.Theconditionsnecessarytoachievethisendstatehavealready been examined as part of ScenarioA and arerepeatedbelow.

18.5.2.1 Area and ExtentAsdescribedintheexistingsituation,thelandcurrentlyset aside in the Delta for mixed subsistence farmingunder individualhouseholds’control is6,204hectares.

Population increase will require that the permanentlycultivatedareaisincreasedby70%(to10,460hectares)by2030andtrebleinsizeby2050(toatotalof18,930hectares). The increase in permanent cultivationwill serve only to maintain a ratio of 1.5 acres perhousehold.Itwouldnottacklethecontinuingproblemsoffoodshortagesformorethan20%ofthepopulation.Realistically, the area in permanent cultivation wouldneedtobedoubled(i.e.3acres/1.Ha)perhouseholdtoachieveself-sufficiencyinfood.

18.5.2.2 Water DemandTheassumptionunderthisscenarioisthatsubsistenceagriculturewouldcontinueto relyonannual rainsandperiodicfloodingtosaturatesoilsandprovidesufficientsoilmoisturetoallowvegetablecropsandmaizetobeproduced.Therewouldbenonetuptakeofwaterfromtheriversystemduringthedryseasons

18.5.2.3 Employment and LivelihoodsIt is assumed that the land farmedbyeachhouseholdrequires1FTEsupportedbyotherfamilymembersonapart-timebasisamountingtoatotalof2FTEforeachholding.

18.5.2.4 Economic ValueThe value of food produced is based on the assessment under the existing situation that a farming householdgenerates produce to the equivalent value of KSh 18,400peryear(Odhengoet al, 2013). The value of food producedforsubsistencehasbeenestimatedusingtheformula applied in paragraph 16.5.4.

Assessment Criteria Year

2010 2030 2050 All Households in Delta 19,885 33,550 60,595

Farming HH in the Delta 9,943 16,775 30,298

Nominal value of food produced KSh Million 183 309 557


Table18.12 Potential Commercial Agricultural Enterprises in the Delta including in Scenario B1


Table 18.13 Land Areas and Employment in Subsistence Farming in 2010, Extrapolated to 2030 and 2050

Basedon1.5acres/HH Basedon3acres/HH

Table 18.13 shows the areas assumed to be undersubsistence cultivation in 2010, and the increase inpermanent cultivation required tomaintain 1.5 acres/household and to increase this to 3 acres/household.The table also shows the number of related FTE jobscreatedin2030and2050(basedon2FTEs/1.5acresand4FTEs/3acres).

18.6 Fishing18.6.1 Area and ExtentTwo types of commercial development need to beconsidered, that relating to freshwater fisheries(aquaculture)andthatbasedonmarinefisheries(eithermariculture orwild stock harvesting).The potential ofwild freshwater fisheries, catching stock from riversand lakes, has been largely exploited by the localcommunities and particularly the Luo using artisanalmethods.Anynewenterprisewouldneedtobebasedon the establishment of holding ponds in locationswhich could be supplied with sufficient clean waterwithoutrunningtheriskofbeing inundated inperiodsofflooding.TherearemanyexamplesofsuccessfulfishfarmingventuresinAfrica.One,fallingwithintheDeltasProgrammeforKenya,istheestablishmentofDominionFarms in Yala Swamp. This is a large scale enterprisewith substantial international funding from the AfricaEnterprise Challenge FundAECF (Shitote et al, 2011). The parent company, under contract to the KenyanGovernment, isproducing2millionfingerlings for saletofishfarmersthroughoutKenya.Ithasalsoestablisheda 25million dollar fish breeding programme and a fish

foodfactoryusingsoyaflourastherawfoodstuff.Thebusiness Plan involves recruiting up to 6,000 farmerswhoaregivenassistance todigpondsandare trainedtobecomefish farmers. Individualsareprovidedwithloans underwritten by the government and banks andDominionFarmsastheoperatingcompanybuysthefishforblastfreezingandexporttoworldmarkets(Shitoteetal, 2011). It is claimed that an individual farmer can earn aroundKSh80,000ayear.Fishpondstypicallycoverupto 60 acres.

BOX 18.2 Case Study – Dominion Farms – Yala Swamp

AECF repayable grant US$ 979,229 Matching funds from Dominion US$ 1.7m Amount spent US$ 38m on infrastructure, diverting the river, building roads, Produce Commercial fishing yet to start. 2m fingerlings are produced per month Number of smallholder farmers benefiting: Tens of thousands of small holder farmers receiving fingerlings. US$1.5m into local economy through wages.Up to 6,000 contract farmers when fully operational, each with potential to earn US$ 1,750 p.a.


TheYalaexampleisquotedasapotentialbusinesscasebecauseitislocatedinasimilardeltaandhasbeentakento thefirst levelofdevelopment.However, itmustbenotedthat theschemehasalsobeenheavilycriticisedas a ‘land-grabbing’ process in which the interests ofthe external investor have overridden genuine localconcernsandresultedinanexport-basedoperationforinternationalmarketswithverylittlefoodgenerationforKenyans.

InordertoavoidsimilarissuesintheTanaDelta,whereland grabbing schemes have caused serious unrest in the past,itisproposedthatfishfarmingshouldbeseenas,essentially,alocalcommunityprogramme.Anambitiousprogrammeisproposedforeverycommunity(80)withintheTanaDeltatohaveonefishfarmby2030andtwoby2050.Eachfarmwouldconsistoffivepondsofaveragesize500m2andaveragedepthof1metre.Fishfarmingoperationswouldberunasanintegratedlandusewithagricultureandwouldrelyontheuseofanimalmanureto provide enriched organic nutrients to support other fishfoods.

18.6.2 Water DemandEstablishmentofsuccessfulfishpondsrequireseitherathroughflowofwaterortheuseofpumpstoaeratethewaterandprovideenoughoxygenforfishtothrive. Inthe contextof theTanaDelta it shouldbepossible tofindplentyoflocationswherewatercanbetransferredby pipe to adjacent fish ponds directly from the rivernetwork.

18.6.3 Employment and LivelihoodsThe level of employment in fish farming is variable.Alargelabourforceisrequiredtohand-digandmaintainfishponds,especiallyduringandaftertherainsinareasprone to natural flooding. Temporary workers arealso required to drag nets through ponds to remove maturefishatharvesttime.However,once thepondshavebeencreatedandstockedit ispossibleforonlyafew workers to transport and distribute pelleted fishfood and maintain security. These tasks can often beaccommodatedalongsideroutinefarmingoperationsinthesamearea.Cleaningandmarketingfish if theyarenotconsumedlocallyisalsolabourintensive.

It isassumedthateverypondwouldbemaintainedbyone permanent worker with ten part time assistantsallocated within each settlement to assist withharvesting,maintenance and repair.On this basis 106fulltime jobswouldbecreatedwitha furtherone fulltime equivalent position (shared by ten assistants) foreachcommunitymaking212jobsintotal.

18.6.4 Economic Value

18.6.4.1 Capture FisheriesFreshwater and marine capture fisheries and theirrelated contribution to the economy are assumed tocontinueunderScenarioBatthesamelevelsprojectedforScenarioA,[i.e.asshownin Table 18.14 (reproduced from17.17)].

18.6.4.2 AquacultureInAfrica, an integrated fish farm system using 500m2

ponds can produce5.5 tonnes of fish per hectare peryear(Ogelloet al,2013).Onthisbasiseachcommunitywouldbeabletoharvestaround12tonnesayearatanaveragepriceofKsh35/Kg,yieldingKSh420,000persettlementandKSh44.5millionfortheDeltaasawholeby2030.Thesefigureswoulddoubleto2050(SeeTable 18.15).

18.7 Bee Keeping18.7.1 Area and ExtentThesameassumptionsontheexpansionofbeekeepinghave been adopted for scenario B aswere applied inScenarioA. There is considerable potential to expandareas of forage for bees and to increase the number of hivesineachcommunityandthisScenarioassumesthatthecurrentscaleofproductionofhoneyisdoubledby2030andtrebledby2050(SeeTable 18.16).However,the capacity to increase production will be governedinpracticeby theconditionof forests,woodlandsandother areaswith extensive acacia and other floweringtreespecies.Iftheseareasareclearedtomakewayforotherlanduses,theseyieldscouldnotbesustained.

18.7.2 Water DemandBeesrequireaccesstowateratalltimesoftheyearbutthequantitiesarenotsignificantatadeltawidescale.

Table18.14 Freshwater and Marine Fisheries in 2010, Extrapolated to 2030 and 2050


Element 2030 2050 Number of Fish ponds 530 1060 Total surface area (Hectares) 26.5 53 Number of fish stocked as fingerlings /year 180,200 360,400 Yield / Tonnes / Hectare 5.5 5.5 Total weight harvested (Tonnes/annum) 1,272 2,544 Value of fish harvested (KSh million) 44.5 89

Table 18.15 Fish Farm Developments in the Delta to 2030 and 2050

Table18.16 Projections of Honey Production from 2010 to 2030 and 2050


18.7.4 Economic ValueThevalueofannualproductionisshowninTable 18.16.

18.8 Using Natural Resources18.8.1 Non Timber Forest Products18.8.1.1 Area and ExtentIt is clear from the analysis in Scenario A that the continuingexploitationofnaturalresourcestomeetthepro-rata demands of increasing population could notbesustainedbeyond thecarryingcapacityandnaturalregenerationof availablewoodland, scrub and thicket.Evidence from ScenarioA shows that the sustainablethresholdhasalreadybeenreachedandby2030therewouldbenoprospectofsupplyinganyadditionalvolumeof building materials/charcoal and fuelwood withoutdestroyingthebasicresource.

18.8.1.2 Water DemandWaterdemandwouldbecomethesecondlimitingfactor(after loss of habitat), which would severely curtailopportunities for harvesting natural resources in theTana Delta, due to the expanding areas of farmlandand irrigationconsideredunderScenarioB.Apossiblereduction of up to one third in the River Tana’s flowcould seriously affect riverine forests, grassland andotherfreshwaterhabitats.

Year 2010 2030 2050 No of Hives 12,150 24,000 36,000 000 Kgs 68-‐96 240 360 KSh Million 20-‐29 72 180

18.8.1.3 Employment and LivelihoodsItisassumedthatemploymentandlivelihoodactivitieswould continue to grow until 2030, but thereafterthe numbers would become static or might actuallydecline.In2010ithasbeenassumedthataround4,971individuals obtained a full time living from harvestingNTFP. This numberwould rise to 8,365 by 2030 butthenremainstaticordecline.

18.8.1.4 Economic ValueThevalueofNTFPin2030hasbeenestimatedatKSh134millionin2030andwouldthenremainstaticorfall.

18.8.2 Housing18.8.2.1 Area and ExtentIt has been assumed that the expansion of naturalresourceusewouldcontinueuntil2030inthemannerdescribed for ScenarioA but that for the next twentyyears development of alternatives, including use ofbrick,concrete,zincroofing,keroseneorsolarpowerforcooking, lightingandotherenergyrequirementswouldhavetomeetsubsequentexpansion(SeeTable 18.17). This essential changewould create new opportunitiesforbusinessdevelopmentandemploymentbutathighercost.

18.8.2.2 Water DemandThe search for house building materials would beaffectedbyincreasedcompetitionforwaterinthesameway asNTFPs, due to increasing stress on the sourceareas (reed marsh, forest palms, mangrove poles, etc.).

18.8.2.3 Employment and LivelihoodsIn 2010 it is estimated that housing construction andrepairprovidedtheequivalentofaround1,265fulltime


Table 18.17 Use of Natural Resources for Building Construction in 2010 and 2030

Table 18.18 Details of Charcoal and Firewood Production under Scenario B

Category 2010 2030 2050 Total number of households 19,885 33,550 60,595 Number of Households (in Pokomo & Orma Communities) 9,943 16,775 30,298 Pokomo (New and rebuild) KSh million 66 111 201 Orma (New and rebuild) KSh million 34 57 104 Value of housing construction and repair (KSh million) 100 169 305

jobsorlivelihoodsinthetwomaincommunities.Basedontheincreaseinpopulationandhouseholdformationsanticipated, this numberwould rise to 2,134 by 2030and 3,854 by 2050 assuming that traditional house-buildingmethodscontinuedtobeusedthroughoutthePlanperiod.Inpractice,ashasalreadybeenstated,therewouldneedtobeamajorswitchtoalterativematerialsbeyond2030.

18.8.2.4 Economic ValueTheestimatedvalueofnaturalmaterialsusedinhousingconstruction would rise from 100 million in 2010 toKSh169millionin2030andKSh305millionin2050asshowninTable 18.17.

18.8.3 Charcoal and FirewoodAll natural resources depend on the same criticalhabitatsandtheseareaswoulddiminishinsizeoverthePlanperiodunderScenario B.

18.8.3.1 Area and ExtentThecurrentareawhichisusedforharvestingwoodforfirewood and charcoal is estimated to be 55-85 (say70)Km2. (See Table 18.18)Thiswouldneed to rise to123 Km2by2030and223Km2by2050tokeeppacewith population growth. These growth rates are notsustainable for the reasonsalreadygivenaboveand ithas been assumed that the maximum outputs wouldbe achievedbefore 2030,with no prospect of furthergrowthbeyondthistime.

18.8.3.2 Water DemandA significant proportion of firewood and charcoal isobtainedfromforestsinthewetlandzonesoftheDeltaand theseareaswouldbeamongst themost seriouslyaffectedbyconversiontootherlandusesandincreasedwaterabstractionunderScenario B.


18.8.3.3 Employment and LivelihoodsThe number of theoretical full time livelihoods to becreatedwouldrisefrom200in2010to400in2030and600in2050.However,exhaustionofthereserveswouldoccur long before the upper limits could be reached and arealisticmaximumwouldprobablybe400.

18.8.3.4 Economic ValueIncomegenerationbasedontheformulainScenario A amountstoaroundKSh195millionin2010andwouldrisetoamaximumofKSh397millionin2030.

18.8.5 Alternatives to Natural Resource UseSomenaturalresourcesarenon-replaceablebutotherscould be substituted, including building materials,charcoal and fuel wood. At this point in developingscenarios,ithasnotbeenpracticaltoincludeadetailedanalysis of the range of materials, their sourcing,water demand, equivalent employment generationcharacteristics and value. However, the followingassumptions have beenmade in order to compensatefortherestrictionsonnaturalresourceusebeyond2030(See Table 18.19).

For construction, theminimum cost7 of providing lowcost social housing of comparable size to PokomodwellingsisintheregionofKSh180,000perunit,whilealternative fuel prices are roughly double the cost ofcharcoal.Solarheatingandelectricitygenerationoffersmajor opportunities for improving living conditions intheDelta but at costswhich cannot be considered atcurrentincomelevels.Asmallsolarphotovoltaicsystemcapable of lighting a house and powering one or twosmall appliances with a combined demand of 30-50wattscurrentlycostsintheregionof300-500$(KSh22-45,000).Costshavebeenfallingsteadilywithincreaseddemand and, in the timescale of the Plan, the scopefor introducing rural electrification and independentsolar systemswill be very considerable. This topic isconsideredfurtherunderthesectiononindustry.

Product No of Households Value (Million KSh)

New Building Construction 27,115 4,880 Clean technology cooking stoves 27,115 22.8 Solar installations 27,115 1,220

18.9 Tourism18.9.1 Area and ExtentAccordingtotheTanaDistrictDevelopmentPlan(2008-2012)therearecurrentlysixhotelswithintheDelta.Therearealsoanumberofsmallestablishmentsofferingroomswithminimal facilities forovernightaccommodation inGarsenandWitu.Coldandcookedfoodissoldbystreettraders and each town has a few small food outletscateringprimarilyforthelocalcommunity.Thecatering,guesthouseandrestaurantsectorcanbeexpectedgrowwith rising levelsofcommercialactivity ineachof themaincentresanditisreasonabletoexpectthatagoodqualityhotelwillbeestablishedinGarsenandWitu,andpossiblyTarasaa.

TheTanaDeltaoffersmajoropportunitiesfordevelopingeco-tourism based on its biodiversity and status as aRamsarsite.Birdwatchingandculturaltourswouldhaveinternationalappeal.Themostsignificantareasforeco-tourismwouldinclude,thecoastline,therivernetworkespeciallyinthelowerreachesaccessedfromKipini,OziForest,otherriverineforestsandtheTanaRiverPrimateNational Reserve. Two high quality tented and chaletcampingsitescouldbeaccommodated,onewithinthelowerDeltaandthesecondinthePrimateReserve;eachwith30-40unitsproviding60-80bedspaces.

18.9.2 Water DemandWater consumption in catering and hotels can besignificant but for the purposes of the Scenarioassessment these activities are subsumed within theoverall development of the urban areas.

18.9.3 Employment and LivelihoodsOntheassumptionthatintheregionof200livelihoodsare supported at the present time by this sector, thisnumbercoulddoubleby2030to400anddoubleagainby2,050to800fulltimejobs.

Table18.19 Alternatives to Natural Resource Use in the period 2030-2050

7Houses built under slum clearance and emergency relief schemes by charities like Habitat.


18.9.4 Economic ValueIfitisassumedthatthreehotelsarebuiltwithatotalfloorspace of 36,000 m2and6quality restaurantscovering1,200m2thedevelopmentcostatcurrentpriceswouldamounttoaround2.23billionKShor25.4millionUSD.Developmentoftwocampsitescouldcostintheregionof50millionKShor570,000USD.

Avery roughassessmentof annual turnoverhasbeenmade by assuming 60% occupancy (the industrystandard forviable operations)with 120 bedspaces intented accommodation and 300 bedspaces in hotels.Rates for tented andhotel accommodationhavebeenassumedtobe$40(KSh3,360)and$100(KSh8,500)respectively.Thecombinedgross turnoveramounts toKSh640millionwithanadditionalKSh100millionforrestaurant and catering enterprises.

18.10 Trade, Commerce and Financial Services18.10.1 Wholesale and RetailWholesale, retail and the repair sectors are heavilydependent on the overall state of local and nationaleconomiessincethegoodsandservicesarerequiredbyallotheractivities,likefarming,livestockrearing,mining,transport,constructionetc.

18.10.1.1 Area and ExtentThewhole of theDelta Plan areawould benefit froman expansion in trade and financial services, butwithparticularemphasisontheLowerDelta.

18.10.1.2 Employment and LivelihoodsThere would be significant growth in employment inthesetwosectors.

18.10.1.3 Water DemandTrade and finance would have only domestic scaledemandsforwaterandthefiguresaresubsumedwithingeneral water consumption for the population as awhole.

18.10.1 4 Economic ValueEstimatesof thevalueof tradewhichwere generatedfortheExistingSituationandScenarioAwouldnotberelevanttothemorecommercialmodeloffuturegrowthrepresented by Scenario B, since each commercial activitywouldgeneratesignificanttradeinitsownrightandthis inturnwould leadto indirectgrowth intrade(themultipliereffect).Forthisreasonthevalueoftradeis modelled on the same percentage of the nationaleconomy (10.8%). Similarly, the contribution made bythefinancialsectorisassessedat4.2%.

The value of trade is estimated at KSh 4,057 millionin 2030 andKSh8,647million in 2050,while financecontributesKSh1,578million in 2030 andKSh3,363million in 2050.

18.11 Mining and Industry18.11.1. Oil and Gas Exploration and Development

18.11.1.1. Area and ExtentLargeareasareallocatedtomineralprospectorsasareasofsearchforminerals likeoilandgas,andmostoftheTanaDeltaisincludedwithinaprospectinglicencearea.Initial reconnaissance isundertakenusing light aircraft(orvesselsatsea)tocarryoutairborneremotesensing.Ifinterestinganomaliesareidentifiedintheunderlyingrockstructures,whichsuggestthepresenceofoiland/orgasreservoirs,thenextstageofexplorationinvolvesdrilling one or more pilot boreholes. In many casesthe boreholemay penetrate rockswith the necessarycharacteristicstosupportoilandgasbutthewellswillbedry.Ifthepresenceofhydrocarbonsisconfirmedtheboreholemaybecapped toallowsubsequent re-entrytoevaluatethefind.Theexistenceofoiland/orgas inundergrounddepositsdoesnotmeanthatexploitationwill automatically follow. Samples of the oil/gas aretakenforanalysisandverydetailedstudiesarerequiredto model the three-dimensional characteristics of the‘oil/gasfield’inordertodeterminehowmuchexploitablegasoroilispresentandwhetheritisofasuitablenaturetoextractusingcurrenttechnology.

Thesearchforoilandgasalsoextendsouttosea,wheregeologicalconditionsarethoughttobesimilartothoseoff theTanzanianandMozambicancoastswhere largegasfindshavebeendiscoveredinthelastfiveyears.If, after exhaustive tests, a ‘commercially viable’ findis announced, the operating companywill develop anextraction plan and programme, raise the necessaryfinancefordevelopingtheoil/gasfieldandapplyforanextractionlicence.

Both stages of exploration and development shouldinvolve a full environmental and social assessment as part of the technical studies.

Theamountoflandrequiredtopositionanexplorationdrilling rig is less than one hectare, although access is requiredforheavyequipmentbyroad.LargepartsoftheTanaDeltawouldbeinaccessibletodrillingequipmentunless it could be transported by barge or helicopter.However,accessroadscouldbeusedtoreachasufficientnumberoflocationsforthenecessarytrialstotakeplaceintheeventofapotentialoil/gasdiscovery.


Ifoilandorgaswasfoundinexploitablequantities,theoperatingcompanywouldplanoneormorepermanentwell sites from which the oil and/or gas could beextracted.Thiswouldentaildrillingproductionwellsandthenconnectingthesetopipelineswhichwouldconveythe crude hydrocarbon output to a site for onwardshipment (by sea)or toa land-basedprocessingPlant.ThelogicaldestinationofanyoilorgasfoundintheTanaDeltawouldbetheproposedoilrefinerytobebuiltaspartoftheLAPSSETproject.

18.11.1.2 Water DemandIn the exploration stage water is used as a mediumto carrydrillingmud to thebaseof anyborehole as alubricant, to reduce the temperature of the drill bit and toflushoutrockparticlesandcarrythesebacktothesurface.Useofwater needs to be carefully controlledto avoid environmental damage from the dispersal of wastesanddrillingmud.

In the operating phase, water is sometimes used topressurise an underground reservoir and effectivelyforceoilandgaswhich is trapped in the rock into thewellandbacktothesurface.

Onlyasmallamountofwaterisusedintheexplorationphases whereas large quantities can be required tosupportproduction.

18.11.1.3 Employment and LivelihoodsMostoperationsassociatedwithoilandgasexplorationanddevelopmentarevery technicalandrequirehighlyskilledandexperiencedworkers.Inconsequence,mostjobscanonlybefilledbyexternalexperts.However,inthe development phase, a large support team is needed including drivers, labourers, road builders, pipeline welders, engineers and mechanics. Fewer than fiftyworkers are required during exploration and perhaps200-300 during the development phase, reducingto fewer than fifty again, once full production hascommenced.

18.11.1.4 Economic ValueThe cost of sinking an individual borehole can easilyexceedUSD50millionanddevelopmentofasubstantialoil/gasfieldmayrunintobillionsofdollars.Consequently,an oil and/or gas project would only proceed in theTanaDeltaiftheeconomicreturnsweresimilarlylarge.Experienceelsewhere, including thenewTurkanafieldinKenyaandtheAlbertineRiftfindsinUgandahighlighttheneedtoplanforsignificantbenefitstoflowtolocalcommunities in the affected areas as well as to thenational exchequer and thiswill be a key concern forboth County Governments if oil and gas is eventuallyfound in the Tana Delta area.

Exploration Phase Requirements Area required for drilling 1-‐5 hectares Water requirements Low (under 1 million m3) Employment / Livelihoods 10-‐50 workers

Value USD 1 -‐20 million Development Phase Area required for drilling, pipelines, storage yards, access

50-‐200 hectares

Water requirements Unknown (potentially large) Employment / Livelihoods 200-‐300 workers during construction.

Under 50 workers during production Value Multi-‐million dollar investment

Table 18.20 Potential Oil and Gas Development in the Tana Delta


18.11.2 Heavy Mineral Sand Mining

18.11.2.1 Area and ExtentThe Tana Delta sand dunes have been identified asa promising location for finding commercially viablequantities of heavy mineral sands, comprising rutile,ilmenite and zircon (Government of Kenya, 2009).Similar deposits exist along the Somalian coastlineandinKwaleCounty(themostsoutherlyonthecoast)(GovernmentofKenya,2009).Therearemanyseriousreservationsaboutworkingmineral sands in theDeltabecauseofthedamagethatwouldresulttotheRamsarsite.Neverthelessthedetailsofcomparableoperationsaregivenhereinordertoallowanassessmentofcostsandbenefitstobemade.

AtitaniumminehasbeenopenedinKwaleCountywiththe first shipment of minerals taking place in 2013.TheKwalemineexpectstoproduce440,000tonnesofilmenite,rutileandzirconoveraperiodof13years.Theextracted concentrate is shipped froma purpose builtcoastal jettytaking largetankerstooverseasrefineries(principallyinAustralia).Over$300millionintaxesandroyalties will be generated for Kenya over the mine’slife (MiningWeeklySept,2013).Thedeposithasbeenquotedasholding3.1billiontonnesofhighgrade(3%)heavyminerals.

Oreconcentrationsareusuallycloserto1%ofthetotalvolumeofsandthatmustbeexcavated,soadevelopmentexporting400,000tonnesofconcentrateayearwouldinvolvemininginexcessof40milliontonnesofsandayear,equivalenttoanareaof200hectaresfromasanddunewithanaverageheightoftwentymetres.

Two methods of extraction are typically used. If theoredepositisabovethewatertablelargeearthmovingexcavatorsanddumptrucksormobileconveyorsareusedto transfer the sand to a processing plant (Government ofKenya,2009).Alternatively,ifthedepositliesbelow

thewatertablea large lagoon isexcavated inordertoallowamassivefloatingdredgertobeintroduced.Sandis then dredged and pumped through pipelines to the processingplant(GovernmentofKenya,2009).

Regardlessofthemethodofextraction,theseparationof heavy minerals from low grade ‘worthless’ sand isundertaken using centrifuges, filters, electrostatic orchemical means. The concentrated ore is dried and exportedwhile sludge and slime residues are pumpedtosettlinglagoonsorreleasedinopenwater.Bulksandis usually returned to the site of excavation to allowrehabilitation to take place (Government of Kenya,2009).All of these processes havevarying degrees ofadverse environmental impact.

18.11.2.2 Water DemandLarge amounts of water are needed at all stages ofextractionandprocessing.AparticularchallengeontheKenyancoastisthepotentialfordisruptionofrecharge,orsalinecontaminationofexistingsandduneaquifers.

18.11.2.3 Employment and LivelihoodsLarge scale extraction processes of this nature willtypically require a labour force of 100-200 (MiningWeekly,2013).

18.11.2.4 Economic ValueThe average value of the three main products is around $400/tonne,givingagrossturnoverofUSD176millionayear(KSh14.8billion).

18.11.3 Industry and ManufacturingA wide range of manufacturing activities could beconsideredwithintheTanaDeltaoverthenext40years,but for the reasons discussed in the introduction it islikely that the industrial zonewithin LamuPortwouldattract the majority of such facilities. NeverthelessGarsen and Witu could be developed as local centres with a particular emphasis on adding value to local

Phase of Operation Requirements Area of land taken each year 200 hectares Excavation of sand each year 40 million tonnes Annual reinstatement 200 hectares / 39 million tones sand Disposal of slimes / silt each year 1 million tonnes Use of water In excess of 40 million m3 Number of Employees 250 Annual Turnover USD 176 million

Table 18.21 Indicative Heavy Minerals Sands Mining Operation


products. Fish, meat, dairy and natural raw materialprocessing could be developed as a specific ‘cluster’activity and given a strongmarketing identity under acollectiveTanaDeltabrandname.

TherangeofactivitieslistedintheISICisshownbelow.

Section C Manufacturing• Processingandpreservingofmeat• Processingandpreservingoffish,crustaceansand

molluscs• Processingandpreservingoffruitandvegetables• Manufacture of vegetable and animal oils and fats• Manufactureofdairyproducts• Manufacture of soft drinks; production ofmineral

watersandotherbottledwaters• Tanning and dressing of leather; manufacture of

luggage, handbags, saddlery and harness; dressinganddyeingoffur

• Manufactureofotherproductsofwood;manufactureofarticlesofcork,strawandplaitingmaterials

• Manufactureofpharmaceuticals,medicinalchemicaland botanical products

18.11.3.1 Area and ExtentRatherthanconsidereachofanumberofmanufacturingprocesses in isolation, this scenario considers thepossibilityofestablishing three industrialparks;withamaincentreatGarsenandtwosubsidiarysitesinWituandTarasaa.TheGarsenIndustrialCentrewouldoccupy60 hectares and those at Witu and Tarasaa 30 hectares each. It is assumed that 30% of each site would bedevelopedasfactorieswiththeremaining70%allocatedtoexternalstorage,circulationandotherinfrastructure(electricity sub-station/transformer – water treatmentplantetc.).OnthisbasistheGarsensitewouldofferthepotential of 180,000m2 (1.8million sq feet) of factory/warehousing spacewitha similar amount split evenlybetweenWituandTarasaa(SeeTable 18.22).

Overthenextfifteenyearsto2030 it isassumedthathalf the total area of the available development sites mightbetakenupwiththreefactorieseachoccupying20,000 m2 and three occupying 40,000 m2 each. The total area of developed floor space by 2030 wouldamountto180,000m2.Theremainingsiteareaswouldbedevelopedbetween2030and2050.

Table 18.22 Development of Industrial Sites

Location Site Area (ha) 30% building development (ha)

floorspace (m2) Jobs (1:50M2)

Garsen 60 18 180,000 3600

Witu 30 9 90,000 1800

Tarasaa 30 9 90,000 1800

Totals 120 36 360,000 7,200


18.11.3.2 Water DemandEach type of manufacturing process has its owndemands for water, electricity and waste treatment.Food processing, including meat, dairy and fruit, andleather tanning in particular have high demands forwater.Water isusedasan ingredient, forcleaning, forprocessingandcooking(oftenassteamorboilingwater)and for sterilizing and sanitizing Plant machinery andareas.TypicallevelsofwaterconsumptionareshowninTable18.23,whichisderivedfromadetailedanalysisintheUnitedStatesbytheMcIlvaineCompany.

In the scenario it is assumed that 12 factories are established in total within the 3 industrial parks,specialising inmeat processing (2), fish processing (1),fruit and vegetable processing (2), manufacture of animal andvegetablefats(1),dairyproducts(2),softdrinksandwater(1),tanningandleatherworking(1),bambooandplaited materials (1) and botanical products (1).

The total water consumption per day by the twelvefactoriesidentifiedaboveisshowninTable 18.23 based on the conversionofAmericanGallons to Litres.Totalannual consumption from the twelve plants wouldamount toaround190millionm3.Of thisasignificantproportion would be discharged as waste water andcould be returned to local water courses, subject topropertreatment.Actualconsumptionwouldbeintheregionof17millionm3.

18.11.3.3 Employment and LivelihoodsIndividual factories could be expected to beginoperations with 5-15 employees increasing as the

Manufacturing Process/no. of units Water Use Cooling Water Total

M3/day (MGD) M3/day (MGD) M3/day Meat (2) 4.18 0.0158 10.2 0.0386 0.0544 Fish (1) 2.14 0.0081 0.3 0.0011 0.0092 Fruit and Vegetables (2) 0.2 0.0008 17.4 0.0659 0.0667 Animal and vegetable fats (1) 2.32 0.0088 5.7 0.0216 0.0304 Dairy products(2) 1 0.0038 74.6 0.2824 0.2862 Soft drinks and water (1) 2 0.0076 17.4 0.0659 0.0735 Tanning and leather products (1) 0.0008 0 0.0000 0.0008 Bamboo, rattan and cane (1) Nominal 0 0 0.0000 0 Botanical products (1) Nominal 0 nominal 0.0000 0 Total 11.82 0.0457 125.6 0.4755 0.5212

Table 18.23 Water Demand per Day by Factory

businesses became more profitable and expanded.Newenterpriseswouldalsobeattractedoveraperiodoftime.Industrialstandardsdonotexistforcalculatingthe numbers of jobs per square metre but reference to the US Bureau of Statistics figures for the number ofemployeesperpremisesforthreeofthemanufacturingcategories used in this scenario gives an average of 11 FTE/premises which equates to 120 workers in thetwelve factories.On the other hand reference to jobscreatedinfournewleatherprocessingfactoriesinMali,EthiopiaetcbyaChineseIndustrialcompanyindicatedafigureofover100localjobsperfactory.Iftheassumptionismadethatonejobiscreatedforevery50m2offloorspacethe90,000m2capacityofthepotentialbuildingscouldsupport7,200workers.

18.11.3.4 Economic ValueDevelopment costs8 in Kenya currently range from20,000-60,000KShpersquaremetreandfactoriesandwarehousingareat the lowerend,althoughsignificantadditional costs would be incurred in providing roadaccessandservicestotheproposedbusinessparks.

Allowing for full development and equipment ofindividual factories a building cost of 25,000 Ksh per m2 is allowed for the six units developed by 2030,amounting to a gross capital investment of 4 billionKenyan Shillings (45.6 million USD). Equivalent costswould be incurred in the remaining development to2050,bringthetotalconstructionatcurrentpricesto8billionshillings.Ifitisassumedthatthetypicalbusinesscaseforeachdevelopmentrequiresrepaymentofcapitaland interest charges (at 10%)within tenyears and an

8Cost of building in Kenya April 19, 2012 Business Construction News


Table 18.24 Indicative Costs for Construction and Repair of Roads in the Delta (2010 prices)

9http://www.salaryexplorer.com/Kenya Manufacturing industries

annualnetprofitof12%on the investment, thegrossprofit (excluding tax and operating costs)would be inexcessofKSh670millionperannumin2030andKSh1,344 million per annum in 2050.

Wages and salarieswould contribute KSh 175milliona year in 2030 and Ksh 351 million in 2050 to thelocal economy, based on the current average in foodmanufacturingofKSh48,750perannum9.

18.12 Infrastructure18.12.1 ServicesSignificant development of infrastructure would takeplaceunderthecommercialdevelopmentScenarioBinorder to support commercial farming, industrial cropping andthecreationofnewindustrialestates.Roadbuildingwouldbemostimportantbutpotablewatersuppliesanduntreatedwaterforirrigationwouldalsorequirepipeline(and/orcanal)construction.

18.12.2 Construction

18.12.2.1 Area and ExtentThere has been very limited construction activity inthe PlanArea until the last two years, butwithworkcommencing on Lamu Port and the LAPSSET corridoractivityisaccelerating.Anew440kvelectricitypowerlinehasbeenerectedparalleltotheMalindi–Garsenroadand sectionsof themain highway are beingupgradedandtarred.Overthe40yearperiodcoveredbyScenarioBtherewouldbesignificantnewdevelopment,includingtheindustrialparks,butalsopublicinstitutions(schools,hospitals,administrationcentres)localfeederroadsandindividual houses. A nominal area of 1,000 hectares is assumedforurbandevelopment.Thisanalysisexcludesthelevelofsitepreparation,landlevellingorconstructionofcanalsandembankmentsthatwouldberequiredformajorirrigationschemeswhichisassessedwithinthose

individual projects.

18.12.2.2 Water DemandConstructionwork requireswater for site preparation,concretingandblockmakingbut theseare short-termdemandsanddonotimposeasignificantloadonavailablewater resources. A nominal amount of 50,000m3 per annumisassumedequatingto140m3/day.

8.12.2.3 Employment and LivelihoodsConstruction isan importantsourceofshort termandtemporary employment with both men and womenbeingemployedas labourers forsitedevelopmentandroad constructionprojects. Where there is continuityofprojectsoveranumberofyearssomelabourerswillacquire specialist experience and with appropriateeducationandtraining,theywilladvancetopositionsofforemen and supervisors. It is assumed that in the region of 200-300 full time equivalent jobswill be providedannuallyinthePlanArea.

8.12.2.4 Economic ValueConstruction is treated as an economic indicator inits own right when assessing a country’s economicperformance and typically lies in the range of 4-8%ofgrossvalueofGDP.Nodata is availableoncurrentconstructioncostsintheTanaDeltabutastudybytheWorldBankin2000providescostestimatesbasedonasurveyof93projectsconstructedbetween1995-1999.Tarred roads in Kenya typically cost in excess ofUSD600,000perkilometrewhereasgravelroadscostaroundUSD60,000(Sogomo,2010).

Table 18.24setsoutsometypicalcostsforroadwork.Itisassumedthat2kilometresofnewfeederroadwillbebuilteachyearandtenkilometresofexistinggravelroadwillberehabilitated.TheequivalentcostinKenyanShillingsis15millionand21millionayear.

Nature of work 2010 – 2030 (Annual work load) 2030-‐2050 (Annual work load) Length Cost (USD) Length Cost (USD)

New Road Construction

2 120,000 2 120,000

Existing road rehabilitation

10 60,000 20 120,000

Total 180,000 240,000


18.12.3 Transport

18.12.3.1 Area and ExtentLocal transportby roadandwaterplays avital part inmaintaining livelihoods and the economy of the TanaDelta. Canoes are used for both passenger and freight transportandeveryriversidevillagesupportsanumberofboatmenwiththeirowncanoes.Pickuptrucksandsmalllorriesareusedformovinglargerfreightbyroad,but much of the area can only be accessed on un-surfacedroadsbybicycleormotorbike.

18.12.3.2 Water DemandWaterplaysakeyroleinsupportingtransportandcanattimescauseseriousdisruptionthroughfloodingofroadsandphysicaldamage to infrastructure.Howeverwateruse is minimal.

18.12.3.3 Employment and LivelihoodsTransportation is an important source of livelihoodsandemployment,especially formalesandyouths.Themajorityofthepopulationwilluselocaltransportatonetimeorother.Asaveryroughestimateitisassumedthatbetween500-1,000peoplemaybeengagedasdrivers,hauliersorcouriersinatypicalday.

18.12.3.4 Economic ValueTransportation, like construction, is an importantcomponentofbothlocalandnationaleconomiessincethe marketing of goods and delivery of supplies andprovisionswouldbeimpossiblewithoutit.Intheabsenceof any reliable data for the value of transportationwithintheTanaDeltaanindicativefigureisderivedbyapplyingthenationalpercentageofGDPfromthe2012NationalAccountswhich is12.4%.Thefigures for thelocal economy in the Tana Delta, have been adjustedaccordinglybyincludingKSh4,658millionin2030andKSh9,927millionin2050.

18.13 Administration, Professional Services, Education and Health18.13.1 Public AdministrationKenya has experienced rising costs of publicadministration,duepartlytotheincreasedexpenditureon establishing new County Governments to replacethe formerdistrict administrations. Itwill taketime tostabilisethelevelofadministrationcostsbuteventuallyadministrative services can be expected to expandin relation to the sizeofpopulation in anygivenarea.Scenario B anticipates significant economic growthwithintheTanaDeltaandthiswillrequirestrengtheningof the existing administrative services to be paid forlargelyfromincreasedturnover.

18.13.2 Professional ServicesWidening and diversification of the economic sectorsin theTanaDeltawillonlybeachieved if the levelsofentrepreneurial activity increase with an increasingnumberofprofessionalworkersinconsultancy,finance,marketing, and related fields to support and train thenewworkforce. This sector is therefore expected togrowstronglyunderScenario B.

18.13.3 Education and HealthThesesectorsofthelocaleconomycanbeexpectedtogrowinlinewithnationalforecastsandareavitalpartofbuilding and strengthening the future of the Tana Delta.

18.13.3.1 EvaluationNo information is held on the level of employment intheseservicesectorsoftheeconomyalthoughitwouldbe reasonable toexpect thatnationalaverages shouldapply if the Tana Delta starts to develop strongly. Inordertoincludearealisticestimateoftheimportanceofthesesectorsintheeconomicevaluation,therespectivefigureshavebeenemployed from2012dataonGrossDomestic Product from theNationalAccounts. Publicadministration,educationandhealthcontribute11.1%ofthenationaleconomyandtheequivalentpercentageforTanaDeltagivesafigureofKSh4,170millionin2030andKSh8,887millionin2050.

18.14 Urban AreasUrbandevelopmentisaddedtothisanalysisofeconomicactivities because although it does not appear in theInternationalStandardIndustrialClassification,itformsa vital component in the overall assessment of land use change under the three scenarios.

18.14.1 Area and ExtentBasedonthefiguresforpopulationgrowthitispossibleto estimate the number of new houses that will berequired and the amount of land needed to accommodate residential buildings, schools, clinics, wells, shops,mosquesandchurchesandotheressential featuresofhumansettlement.Amajorissueforlocalcommunitiesintheyearsaheadwillbetheprocessofbalancingthedesire to maintain cultural traditions, including thenatureofhouses,useoflivestockcorralsandthelayoutof individualsettlementsandpublicstreetsagainsttheattractions and convenience of usingmodern buildingmaterialsincludingzincforroofsandbricksandconcretein place of grass, mud and thatch.

Such issueswillbeforeachcommunitytoresolveandthereisnointentiontoimposestandardsthroughtheLandUsePlan,butatthesametimeitishelpfultoanticipatewhat are the maximum requirement for building landandpublicopenspacewithineachsettlement.Forthis


reason the assumption has been made that 50m2 of buildinglandshouldbeavailableforfamilygroupsof7peoplewithafurther200m2 forexternal livingspace,totalling 250m2 (equatingto16dwellingsperacre;40perhectare).Theareaaddedforcommunityuse,publicopen space and roads / paths shouldmatch the totalallocatedtoindividualuse;soasettlementof5houses(occupying1,250m2)wouldrequireanadditionalareaof1,250m2 bringing the total to 2,500m2.Theseestimatesrelatetothedevelopmentofruralsettlements.

In the case of the larger urban settlements, a greaterareaof landwill be required for layingout communal,industrial, commercial and shopping areas and for providing thenecessary roadnetwork.This is likely tobe double the land area required for residential use.Usingthesefigures,thegrowthofpopulationby60,000by 2030 would require a total of 839 hectares forresidentialdevelopment,with a further1515hectaresby2050.Theequivalentincreaseintheurbanfootprintto meet communal, industrial, commercial and shopping activities would be 1,678 ha by 2030 and a further3,030haby2050.

18.15 Water Resources18.15.1 Water ConsumptionWaterconsumptionwillincreasewithrisingpopulationandtheincreaseinfarmingandlivestockrearing.Theuseofwaterisaccountedforundereachtypeofeconomicor livelihoods activity. There is therefore no separatebreakdown of information under area and demand oremployment.However,itisimportanttonoteasstatedforScenarioAthatwaterhasarealvalue,whetheritispaidforassuppliedbyapublicutilityorreceivedasa

Development Component 2010 (Ha) 2010-‐2030 (Ha)

2030-‐2050 (Ha)

Total area in 2050 (Ha)

Residential Property 2,620 839 1,515 4,974

Commercial and Industrial 0 1,678 3,030 4,708

Total 2,620 2,517 4,545 9,682

Table 18.25 Growth of Urban and Rural Settlements


freegoodasrainorcollectedfromariver.Forthisreason,thevalueofwateriscalculatedinthesescenariosatthesamerateatwhichischargedtocommunitieswhorelyonkiosks and standpipeswhich isKSh100per1,000litres (1m3).

Domestic Consumption:Thecurrentlowlevelofdomesticwaterconsumption,assumed tobe20 litresperhead,(Mati,2006)should riseonhumanitariangrounds toaminimumof40litresperheadby2030andtodoublethisamountby2050(i.e80litres/head)(SeeTable 18.26). ThisisstillonlyhalfthecurrentpercapitaconsumptioninthemajorurbancentresofNairobiandMombasa.

Livestock watering will also add significantly to overallwater consumption, as shown in Table 18.27. Water consumption by Zebu cattle equates to 12-20 litres/head/day (FAO) while sheep and goats consumeone tenth of this amount. Increase in the number of livestockiscappedunderthisscenarioatthe2030levelsincethereisinsufficientlandtoprovidegrazingforanyhighernumberofstock.

Farming and Irrigation: The expansion of subsistence,communityandcommercial farmingareaswill result inadditional pumped and gravity irrigation schemes andcreate a demand for 21,600 m3/dayin2030,risingtoatotal of 41,000 m3/dayby2050.(SeeTable 18.28).





Table 18.28 Water Demands for Farming and Irrigation (Million m3)

Table 18.29 Daily Demands for Water in 2010, 2030 and 2050 (in m3)


Water Demand 2010 2030 2050 Domestic 2,040 6,960 25,200 Livestock 4,748 8,116 14,658 Farming and Irrigation 179,452 879,452 1,758,904 Total M3/day 186,240 894528 1,798,762 Value KSh (Millions/year) 6.55 24.09 48.19


18.15.2 Water SourcesWaterconsumptionforallformsofabstractionmakesaverysignificant impactonavailableriverflowby2030(taking17%ofallthewaterintheRiverTanain2030).Thisfigurewould rise to35%ofall availablewaterby2050.Howeverdirectabstractionisfar lesssignificantthan the requirement which would exist to providesufficientwatertomaintaingrasslandandrangelandinaconditioncapableofsustainingthemassiveincreaseinstockingdensity.ThisisassessedseparatelyintheSEAreport (Odhengo et al, 2014a).However, as describedundertheexistingsituationinsection14.16.1&14.16.2most of the water which flows through the IdsoweBridge is required to maintain the natural vegetationandgrasslandsoftheTanaDeltaduringthedryseasonandanydecreaseinnaturalriverflowsbelowamonthlyaverage of sixty cubic metres of water per second(60m3/sec)asaresultofdevelopmentupstreamwouldrapidlyaffectthecapacityofthesystemtomaintainthelivelihoodsandbiodiversityoftheDelta.Thisfigureof60m3/secondisreferredtoastheenvironmentalreserve.

18.16 BiodiversityAs noted in relation to Scenario A there are both opportunities and challenges for nature conservationandbiodiversityinthedevelopmentofScenario B. This sectionconsiders,first,theopportunitiesforpromotingeconomic returns from commercial management and use of natural resources, followed by an analysis ofsomeofthechallengesthatwouldbefacedasaresultofgrowthinothersectorsoftheeconomy.

18.6.1 Opportunities for Economic Development

18.16.1.1 Area and ExtentThis scenario focusesonopportunities forcommercialdevelopment and while nature conservation, thearts, entertainment and recreation are often thoughtof as public services there are a growing number ofexamplesofconservationandculturalprojectsthatareself-financing and highly profitable for their sponsors(whether private sector or communally owned).Countries like SouthAfrica and Botswana have manyvery commercial and profitable game reserves butKenyaitselfhasbeenatrendsetterindemonstratingtheopportunities forcommunitygroups tosetup tourismandgamemanagementprojects,especiallyintheMaasaiMara.Otherverysignificantcommunitybasedprojectshave included the work of the Northern RangelandsTrust,whichisanamalgamofmorethantenCommunityConservancies.

Serious game management requires major investment, including extensive fencing of the reserve perimeter,theacquisitionoflivestocktoincludespeciesthatmayhave traditionally occupied the areabut havebecome

extinct,andthedevelopmentoflodgesandtrailsfor4x4vehicles.

In the Tana Delta there are major opportunities forexploiting the existing natural flora and fauna, withboat rides into the coreof thewetlands andwalking/driving trails within the Primate Reserve but theseactivitiesappealtoquiteanarrowsectorofthewildlifetourismmarket and itwouldbenecessary tobroadentheappealbydevelopingotherattractions,e.g.butterflycentres,canopy levelwalkwaysthroughriverineforestand cultural events within traditional village settings.Nature Kenya, as an ‘extraterritorial organisation’,has spearheaded development of livelihoods withinsixvillages in theDeltaover the last twoyearsand iscommitted to continuing its association in the yearsahead in order to strengthen the conservation of thisunique series of habitats and communities. Otherconservationinitiativessharethesameaims.

Theareaswhichformtheprincipalexistingattractionsaretheprimatereserve(17,000hectares)andthecoreareaoftheDelta(70,000hectares).

18.16.1.2 Water DemandTheprimary requirement tomeetnature conservationneedsissufficientwatertomaintaintheexistingmosaicofhabitats comprising river channels, riverine forests, open water,wetgrasslandandmarshes,swampsandwetland.Nodetailedstudyhasbeenundertakentoconfirmthefullrequirementsofthesecomplexecosystems,buttheSEAhas confirmed, contrary to previous assumptions,that theRiverTanahashistoricallymaintainedameanmonthlyflowofnotlessthan50m3/secbelowGarsen(IdsoweBridge) except invery dry periods lasting 3-4months in exceptional drought years. Twice yearlyfloodingisalsoacriticaleventformaintainingtheDeltahabitats and a preliminary estimate has beenmade inrelationtothefeasibilitystudyfortheHighGrandFallsDam that 0.8 billion m3 of water should be releasedannuallyintwoeventsof400millionm3overtendaystosimulatetheeffectoftheannualfloodsthatwillbedisruptedbyconstructingthedam

18.16.1.3 Employment and LivelihoodsNatureconservation isa largeuntappedmarketwhichoffers major opportunities for enhanced and newlivelihoods inmanaging thenaturalhabitat,wardeningits precious wildlife reserves and harvesting naturalproduce.Ifeveryvillagecommunityweretonominate5peopletoworkfulltimeonconservationactivitiesthiswouldofferalabourforceofalmost500.Inpracticeitis likelythat themajorityof residentswillcommitpartoftheirtimetonatureconservationwhileundertakingothertraditionallivelihoodpractices.


18.16.1.4 Economic ValueInmanycountriesthenaturalenvironment,landscapesand natural resources (like beaches, rivers, waterfallsand mountains) form the main attraction for eco-tourism,sportsandrecreationaltourism.Kenyabenefitsmorethanmostfromitsfaunaandflora,linkedwiththesceneryandculturalassetsofitsnationalparks.Kenyaisalsoaleaderindevelopinginnovativewaysofexploitingnatural assets to generate livelihoods and income for its local communities. The Northern RangelandTrust(NRT)isoneexampleofanumbrellaorganisationwhichpromotes tourismandeconomicactivitybasedon theconservation values of its Community Conservanciesand the Tana Delta has followed a similar approach,albeit on a much smaller scale.

In the NRT individual community conservancies earnmoney from a variety of enterprises including guidedtourism, managing tourism camps, and handiworkmanufacture. The SeraProject in SamburuEast,witha population of 8,000, operates with a budget ofUSD 110,000 per annum. By comparisonWest GateCommunityConservancy,with3,500peopletosupporthasabudgetofUSD75,000peryear.Thisconservancyhasleasedoutitstourismpotentialtoaprivatecompany(Tamimi Co Ltd) which promotes an 18 bed luxurytentedcampopenedin2007.Anumberofconservancymembers are directly employed and a proportion ofrevenueisallocatedtotheconservancy.

Incomeprojectionsforanequivalentprojectsponsoredby the African Wildlife Foundation on communityranches on the edge ofAmboseli National Park showannual returns of USD 42,000 on a ranch owned bythe248adultmembersofeightfamilies,equatingtoanannualincomeofUSD165peradult(Kiyiapi et al, 2005).

It is assumed that two or three conservancies couldbe established for the Tana Delta, covering the coast, lowerfloodplainandupperfloodplain,althoughdetailednegotiations would be required with the existingcommunity groups including the Ozi ConservationTrust, to reach agreement on the areas, structure and organisation. Using the models described above, the

aimwouldbetoencourageallvillagestojoinanumbrellaTana Delta Trust with three associated communityconservancies.

Over the Plan period, three tourism lodges might bebuilt with 25 bed spaces each generating $40,000 ayear.ThetargetforannualIncomeundertheTDTwouldbeUSD200,000perannum,withUSD120,000beinggeneratedbythetradingactivitiesofeachofthethreeconservancies and the balance of USD 80,000 beingattracted through International sponsorship. Otherincome-generatingactivitiestobepursuedbytheTDTmightincludeestablishmentofalocalsecuritybusiness,theTanaDeltaScouts,whichwouldsafeguardcommunalinterests and provide support to KWS in patrolling and monitoring wildlife and preventing poaching. Afurtherareaofconservationactivitycouldbelinkedtosafeguarding existing forest resources under aCarbonCreditsinitiative.

18.16.2 ChallengesThelevelofdevelopmentexploredinScenario B wouldgreatlyexceedthenaturalcarryingcapacityoftheTanaDelta, not just in terms of land area but in terms of the amount of water that would be required to achievesomeofthefarmingoptions. Introductionof industrialcroppingwithintheLowerDeltawoulddisplaceawiderange of existing land uses, including cattle rearingand food production and totally destroy the wetgrasslandhabitatwhichformsthemainstayoftheareas’internationalimportanceforbiodiversity.

The cumulative effect of the commercial farming andindustrial cropping schemes would largely eliminatetraditionallivestockrearingandthebalanceoflandusesthatarecompatiblewithnatureconservation.Inpractice,lessthan25%oftheprimehabitatwouldremainintactby2050.

18.17 SummaryTable 18.31 provides an overall summary of Scenario Bwhich can be comparedwith the data given in theexistingsituationanalysis.


Table 18.31 Summary of Scenario B

Component Measure/Unit 2010 2030 2050 Population Thousands 102 175 315 Workforce Thousands 52 87 158 Urban Area Km2 26.2 51.4 96.8 Industrial land Hectares 10 70 130 Open Grazing Area occupied 1128 530 530 Cattle -‐ Maximum number 735,000 11,000 11,000 Cattle -‐ Minimum number 220,000 11,000 11,000 Cattle -‐ Average number) 477,000 11,000 11,000 Average value (KSh 12,000/head)in KSh million 5,730 132 132 Ranches (Delta) Area occupied (Ha) 9,200 25,000 25,000 Cattle -‐ Maximum number 480 16,000 16,000 Cattle -‐ Minimum number 480 16,000 16,000 Cattle -‐ Average number 480 16,000 16,000 Average value (KSh Million)@20,000/head 3.1 230 230 Farming Subsistence (Area Km2) 3.0 acres/HH 62 502 909 Subsistence (Area Km2) 1.5 acres/HH 62 105 189 Subsistence (people supported ‘000s) 51 87 158 Value of subsistence crop production (KSh million) 183 309 557 Irrigated land (Ha) 385 15,750 31,500 Labourers -‐ all commercial farming 77 13,500 23,500 Commercial farm (Has) 450 20,750 41,500 Capture Fisheries ’000Kgs/annum 613 750 1,025 Value (KSh million) 34.5 65.3 89.2 Fish farming Tonnes/annum 0 1,272 2,544 Value (KSh million) 0 44.5 89 Bee keeping Number of hives 12,150 24,000 36,000 Honey (000 Kg) 82 240 360 Value (KSh million) 25 72 180 Natural Products Area for required for harvesting (Km2) 70 123 233 People engaged 4,971 8,365 8,365 Income generated (million) 80 134 134 Value of building (KSh million) 325 779 779 Charcoal / Firewood-‐ average (‘000 tonnes) 58.7 103 103 Value of Charcoal and Firewood (KSh million) 194 396 396 Tourism Turnover (Value ‘000USD)(KSh million) 26 (2.2) 50 (4.2) 75 (6.3) Industry & Mining Area Involved 0.5 0.5 0.5 Turnover KSh million 257 257 257 Water Demand Domestic (m3/day) 2,040 6,960 25,200 Commercial/Industrial (‘000 m3/day) 0 1500 1,500 Livestock (drinking) (m3/day) 4,784 8,116 8,116 Farming Irrigation (‘000m3/day) 179 879 1,758 Environmental Reserve (million m3/day) 5.2 5.2 5.2 Biodiversity 1,026 Km2 Prime Habitats = 100 100 <25 <25


CHAPTER

19 SCENARIO C – HYBRID APPROACH

19.1 IntroductionThedescriptionsofScenariosAandBandtheirassociatedSEA assessments demonstrate very clearly that it isimpracticalforconditionsintheTanaDeltatocontinue,either based on extension of existing livelihoods (asmodelled in Scenario A), or through development of a strongly commercial focus (as postulated in Scenario B). Both of these scenarios would place the existing(andexpanding)communityofover100,000people inconditionsofseverehardship,andwouldlargelydestroythe environmental integrity of the Delta at the sametime.

This situation therefore calls for a different approach(Scenario C) which is based on the best elements ofboth Scenarios A and B, while seeking to avoid theunacceptable components. The results of this analysisare presented in this chapter.

19.2 PopulationUnderScenarioCitisassumedthattheprojectionsforfuturepopulationgrowthintheTanaDeltaarethesameis in Scenario A.

19.3 Economic Activity and MethodologyThe preparation of this scenario is based on the factthat the total area of the Tana Delta (2,250 km2) is finite. All activities that are required to support the

existing population (and any future growth) mustbe accommodated within this area. Scenario C also recognises that the critical relationships betweencommunities, natural resources and biodiversity mustbe preserved inwayswhichwill strengthen economicactivity, reduce poverty, improve human welfare andprotect the environment which, in turn, will supportlocal livelihoods. Finally, Scenario C is based on the knowledgethatwaterliesattheheartoftheTanaDeltaandalleconomicactivitydependsonthecontinuedflowoftheRiverTana.Wiseuseofwaterresources,togetherwiththeuseoflandandothernaturalresources,holdsthekeytothefutureoftheDelta.

In order to assist in developing Scenario C,asummaryofrelevantinformationabouttheexistingconditionsisprovided. Table 19.1 and Figure 19.1showsasimplifiedbreakdownofthemainvegetationandlandcovertypesthat make up the Delta while Figure 19.2 shows thesame information, together with land use classes, inmoredetail.Finally,Figure 19.3 showsthepercentageoftheTanaDeltawhichmeetsparticularhumanneedsin the form of a bar graph. These diagrams illustrate that many needs are met from the same basic resources.AnalysisofScenarios A and B throughtheSEAshowsveryclearlythatifoneneedisallowedtodominateoverothers,thenallwillultimatelysuffer.

Table 19.1 Simplified Vegetation and Land Cover in the Tana Delta Plan Area


Figure 19.1 Simplified Vegetation/Land Cover Zones with the Plan Area

Figure 19.2 Detailed Vegetation, Land Cover and Land Use within the Plan Area (Area Km2)


Figure 19.1 highlights the importance of tree cover withinthePlanAreawhichextendsfromdenseriverineforest, open woodlands, thickets and scrub throughto coastal mangroves. Putting these vegetation typestogetheramountstoalmosthalfoftheentirePlanArea.Thefloodplaingrasslandsandareaswhicharenominallyin use for all types of agriculture each take almost aquarterofthetotalarea,withsanddunes,openwaterandurbanareasaccountingforlessthantenpercentofthe total.

Figure 19.2 breaks down the vegetation, land coverand land use into more detailed classes, and the same informationisshowninadifferentformatinFigure 19.3.

Further analysis has been undertaken of the range ofdifferent landusesandeconomicactivitiesconsideredin Scenarios A and B,inordertoassesshowdependenttheirsuccessfulexploitationisonthreekeyfactors:• AvailabilityofLand• AvailabilityofWater• EnvironmentalQuality

TheresultsareshowninFigure 19.4.

Thisanalysisshowsthatavailabilityoflandiscriticalforallformsofagriculture,livestockrearing,naturalresourceuse(includingcharcoalandfuelwood),natureprotectionanddevelopmentofsettlements.Itislessimportantfor

Figure 19.3 Different Land Use Classes Shown in Proportional Bar Graph (Area in Km2)

beekeeping,fisheries,tourism,industryandcommerce.Access to water is essential for agriculture, livestockrearing,fisheries,settlementsandnatureconservation.Otherusesalsorequirewaterbutitisnotneededinlargequantities.Finally,adifferentsetoflandusesarehighlydependent on high quality environmental conditionsincluding bee keeping, fisheries, natural resourceproduction, tourism and settlements. It is significantthat theone landusewhich isdependentonall threeresources isnatureprotectionandthemaintenanceofbiodiversity.

19.3.1 Apportioning Land UsesThe main role of the Tana Delta Land Use Plan is toallocateland,andothernaturalresourceslikewater, inorder to secure sustainabledevelopment.The analysisof Scenarios A and B shows that the main demandfor additional land will come from the expansionof agriculture, livestock grazing and use of naturalresources.

If existing trends continue, the rise in the number oflivestock in theDeltawill exceed its carrying capacityintermsofgrazinglandwellbefore2030.Atthesametime,theneedtoprovidefoodforagrowingpopulationandcontinuedexpansionintheuseofnaturalresourceswill result in the impoverishmentofexistinggrassland,and pressure for the conversion of some floodplaingrassland,thicket,scrub,andforestintoarableland.This


Figure 19.4 Importance of Land, Water and Environmental Quality to specific Land Uses

Importance of the resource to sustainable development 1 star = low; 5 stars = high

Land Use/Economic Activity

Land Water Environmental Quality

Subsistence Farming Commercial Farming Livestock Rearing Bee Keeping Fish farming NTFP Use Charcoal & Fuel Wood Tourism Nature Protection/Use Settlements Industry/Commerce Trading/Marketing

situationcannotbeallowedtodevelopandafirmLandUsePlanneedstobeputinplacetocorrecttheselongtermtrendsandachieveasustainablebalancebetweencommunities,landusesandtheenvironment.

19.3.2 The Decision-making ProcessInthepast,processesfordecidinghowlandwasallocatedwithintheTanaDeltaarewidelyacceptedtohavebeenarbitrary,non-transparentandoperatedforthebenefitofelitesandinfluentialindividualsratherthanthewidercommunity.Thishasresulted in landallocationswhichhaveneverbeenproperlyusedormanagedwhichthenbecomeablightonothergenuineeffortstocreatenewenterprises and raise standards of living for everyoneratherthantheselectfew.

The2010constitution,newgovernmentstructuresandnewlawsprovideanexceptionalopportunitytocorrectthese imbalances and it will fall to the two CountyGovernmentstodemonstratethattheycanrisetotheoccasionandputinplaceaLandUsePlanfortheTanaDeltaPlanAreawhichisgenuinelydesignedtoresolveexisting land ownership issues and create a forward-looking strategy for prosperity. There are some bigchallenges ahead and this scenario illustrates some of thechoicesthatwillhavetobemade.

19.3.3 Developing a Land Use StrategyTheTanaDeltaPlanAreahas reached a crossroads intermsof its futuredevelopment.Anumberof optionscan be envisaged:

(a) Business as usualwouldseecontinuingappropriationof land which is technically in public ownership asindividualdevelopersseekwaysofpromotingtheirownvestedinterests.Criticalhabitatsandlandincommunalusewouldbeconvertedtocommercialandotheruses,leavingexistingusersangryandfrustratedandleadingtogreaterinsecurity,tensionsandconflict.

(b) Self-Sufficiency: This approachwould provide everyhousehold with the scope and freedom to developsufficientlandtomeetitsownneedsandworkitswayoutofpoverty.However,previousattemptstoestablishresettlement areas in the Tana Delta have failed fora variety of reasons, including the sale of land by thebeneficiariestoraiseinstantfinance,leavinglargeareasinthehandsofabsenteelandowners.Aself-sufficiencyapproachcouldleadtoamyriadofsmalluncoordinateddevelopmentswithnorealoverallbenefitintermsoftheeconomy,socialwelfareorenvironmentalimprovement.

(c) Community led enterprise: would see communityleaders and local government take the initiative inplanninganddevelopingcommunityprojectsinfarming,livestock rearing, and commerce.This approachwouldhelp to ensure full commitment and a sense of purpose for all residents of the Tana Delta, but the necessaryexpertise and business acumen might not be drawnin from individual entrepreneurs so progress could be muchslowerthananticipated.

(d) Public/Private Partnerships: advice, expertise andfinance of commercial and business development


companiesand individualspecialiststoworkalongsidecommunitypersonnelandgovernmentdepartmentstopromote joint projects.

The choice of strategy is a communal decision to beguided by political leaders and it needs to be takenfollowingathoroughdebateabouttheoptionsoutlinedabove.Howeverinordertodevelopthisscenarioithasbeennecessarytoformajudgementonwhichoptionoroptionsmightofferthebestsolutionand,forplanningpurposes, an amalgam of (b), (c) and (d) has been adopted.

It is assumed that a formal Land Use Plan will bepreparedtobeimplementedthroughacombinationofindividualenterprise, communalactivitiesandprivate/publicpartnership.Allocationoflandwillneedtobekeptunderconstantreviewtoensureeffectiveuseandthepracticeofgrantingthousandsofhectarestoindividualcompanies(whetherpublicorprivate)isstopped.

19.3.4 Framework for Land AllocationAframeworkforlandallocationisproposedinScenarioCwiththeaimofprotectingthespecialenvironmentalqualitiesoftheDeltaandachievingabalancedapproachtowards sustainable development which respects andgivesequalweighttothetwomainlandusesoflivestockrearing and agriculture. In broad terms, the concept is to allocatejustunderonethirdofthePlanareatolivestockrearing(29%),asimilaramounttoagriculture(29%),anda littlemore thanone third touseswhichareentirelycompatible with nature conservation (39%) (togetherwithzonesforurbanandindustrialdevelopment(3%)).

19.3.4.1 Livestock RearingThe most important area for grazing livestock is thepartoftheRiverTanafloodplainwhichcovers508km2 intheUpperandLowerDelta.Partoftheterraceareascoveredbythicketandscrubprovideadditionalgrazingand Scenario C envisages that the total area available forgrazingofonekindoranothershouldbemaintainedat650km2.

19.3.4.2 AgricultureAn equivalent area of land should be reserved in the longtermforagriculturaluse.Atthepresenttimeonly31 Km2 is used for commercial farming and 6 Km2 for arableusewithincommunities.However,upto45%ofthePlanAreahaspotentialtobeusedforagricultureandlargepartsofthelandusezonesreferredtoasdryland(370Km2)andwetlandfarming(123Km2)arecultivatedonarotationalorseasonalbasis.Takingtheseclassesofland together gives a total of 524 Km2 for agricultural use,towhichisaddedafurther76Km2oflandclassifiedasthicketandscrubtomatchthe650km2 allocated to livestockgrazing.

19.3.4.3 Urban and Commercial UsesIf livestock rearing and agriculture are each allocated650 Km2 of land this leaves 1,050 Km2 within thePlanArea.Sufficientlandalsoneedstobesetasidetoaccommodate theexistingurbanandcommercialusesin the Delta, and to provide for unrestricted commercial and industrialgrowth inthe35yearsupto2050.Thisrepresents an area of 60 Km2,or2.7%ofthetotalPlanArea, and reduces the balance of unallocated land to 980Km2.

19.3.4.4 Uses Compatible with Nature ConservationIn terms of protecting the core areas of natureconservationinterestandbiodiversityitisproposedthattheprimaryhabitatsthatsupportbothnaturalresourceuse,butalsocomponentsofotheruseslikeagriculture,livestock rearing, tourism and bee-keeping, should bemaintained and conserved at close to their present area andextent.Thesehabitatsare listed inTable 19.2 and togethercover1,407squarekilometresor62%of thetotalPlanArea.

Ifthe508Km2offloodplaingrazing,whichservesadualpurposeforconservationandgrazing,isexcludedfromthe equation, the remaining 899 Km2 of land under conservationmanagementaccountsfor40%ofthelandwithintheDelta.However,thefloodplainconstitutesalargepart(508Km2,or36%)ofthishighvaluehabitat,and long term protection of its biodiversity interestsneatlycoincideswithitscontinuedpropermanagementanduseforlivestockgrazing.

Primary Habitats Area (Km2)

Forest 271

Riverine Forest 323

Mangrove 84

Open water 18

Dunes 103

Migratory routes 100 Floodplain grassland 508

Total 1,407

Table 19.2 Habitats to be Managed for Nature Protection and Biodiversity


Apart from livestock rearing improvements and theintensificationofagriculturaloperations,themainchangeproposed in land use is the conversion of 126Km2 of thicketandscrubtoagricultureovertheplanperiod.Insummary,theproposedbreakdownoflanduseswithinthePlanAreaissetoutinTable 19.3.

In the sections which follow, outline strategies aredescribed for each of the principal land uses.

19.4 Livestock ManagementThere is no prospect of achieving an equitable balance betweenhumanactivitiesandenvironmentalandsocialconcernsunlesstheexpansioninthenumberoflivestock,as illustrated in Figure 19.5, is brought under control.

Table 19.3 Proposed Breakdown of Land Uses

LAND USE AREA (Km2) %age LIVESTOCK Floodplain 508 Thicket 142 Sub Total 650 29 AGRICULTURE Dryland Farming 370 Commercial Farming 31 Wetland Farmland 123 Conversion from Thicket 126 Sub Total 650 29 NATURE CONSERVATION COMPATIBLE USES Forest 271 Riverine Forest 323 Mangrove 84 Dunes 103 Water Areas 18 Migration corridors through thicket 86 Sub Total 885 39 URBAN AND DEVELOPMENT Salt Ponds 5 Urban Areas 60 Sub Total 65 3 TOTAL 2,250 100

However,thiscouldonlybeachieved ifafundamentalchangeinattitudeisadoptedbypastoralists;thiswouldentailkeepingfeweranimalsperhouseholdbutensuringthatthequalityandhealthofthoseremainingisgreatlyimproved.

19.4.1 Area and ExtentIt is clear from recent development in the Tana Delta that someofthestereotypeviewsaboutlocalculturesarenotentirely accurate. SomeOrmavillages havedevelopedverysubstantialfarmingoperationswithcashcroppingaswellassubsistencefarmingbeingusedtosupportthetraditional livelihoods of cattle rearing,whereas somePokomofarmershaveinvestedinlivestock.


Figure 19.5 Proportional Breakdown of Different Land Uses within the Delta


An important part of the debate about future land management intheTanaDeltaneedstofocusonhowlivestockarekept.Theoptionsinclude:• Livestockkeepingcontinuestofollowthetraditional

patternwheresomeverywealthyownersmaintainindividualherdsofcattle,goatsandsheepcontainingthousandsofanimals,whilepoorhouseholdshaveonlyafewcattle,

• Communalranchingisdeveloped,and/or• New forms of public/private partnership are

developed.

Decisionsontheseoptionswillhelptoinformthelongtermplan for livestockmanagement; but, for planningpurposeswithinScenario C, certain assumptions havehad to be made as follows. The total area of landpotentially available to livestock rearing and grazingis around 510 km2 within the floodplain, with someadditional dry grazingwithin the thicket areas on theterraces.Basedonatotalareaof650Km2,around29%theDeltawouldbeutilisedforgrazingintheperiodupto2050.This representsa slight reduction in theareapresently grazed since livestock are currently allowedto range over most parts of the Delta, regardless of the existenceofotheruses.

Any reduction in grazing area should be compensatedfor through a programme that is designed to improve animalhusbandry,introducenewbloodstrainsofcattleand extend artificial insemination in order to increasethevigourandproductivityofcattle intheTanaDelta.Improvedaccesstowateringpoints,thedesignationofdroving routes and safeguarding of approved communal grazing areas will help to reduce conflict and ensuregreaterresiliencetodroughtconditions.WaterflowsintheLowerRiverTanawillbemonitoredandabstractionupstreamwillberegulatedandcontrolledtoensurethatlivestockhaveallthewatertheyneed.

19.4.2.1 General Livestock GrazingUnderthisscenario, themaximumnumberofcattletobegrazedwithintheTanaDeltaduringthewetseasonwouldbe200,000whileinthedryseasonthenumberintheDeltaPlanAreawouldbelimitedto600,000head.During the rainy seasons, cattlewould bemoved intothearidrangelandsformingthemainbufferzonestotheDelta.

Landavailableforgeneralgrazingwouldberestrictedtohalfoftheavailablewetgrasslandwithinthefloodplain.Theotherhalfwouldbereservedforthespecialgrazingscheme described in Table 19.5.

19.4.2.2 Special Livestock GrazingAseparatemeasureforincreasingtheproductivityandprofitabilityofcattlerearingintheTanaDeltawouldbetodeveloparearingandfattening/marketinginitiative,whereby an area of up to 25,000 hectares would beset aside and carefullymanaged as a grazing area forcattle purchased selectively from individual pastoralistfamilies.ThesecattlewouldbefattenedonthemanagedgrazingareaforsixmonthsbeforebeingtransferredtoapurposebuiltabattoirinGarsen.Thecarcasseswouldbe transferred incoldstorage trucks toMombasaandNairobi,where theywould command premium prices,estimatedatKSh17,500duetotheiroriginunderthe‘TanaDelta’Brand.Cattlepurchasedforthismarketingcooperativewould attract a premium of between 20-30% above the existingmarket prices inGarsen.Thisincreasewouldmore thancompensateowners for thereductionintheoverallnumberofcattlebeingkept inthe Delta. The commercial elements of this ranching systemwouldbeoperatedunderacooperativeventureto be established amongst competent pastoralists from theDeltaArea.Thistypeofschemecouldbeintroducedon individual ranches, but it would be preferable tointroduceasingle,wellmanagedoperationratherthanaseriesofindividualinitiatives.Thebasicsofthisschemeare set out in Table 19.5.

General Livestock rearing Km2 Stocking Density

Head (No)

Value (KSh)

Total (KSh Million)

Wet grassland 250 2/ha 50,000 12,000 600

Table 19.4 Grazing of Livestock by Individual Pastoralists


Figure 19.5 Proportional Breakdown of Different Land Uses within the Delta

Table 19.6 Water Demand by all Livestock

Table 19.7 Employment in Livestock Rearing

All livestock 2010 2030 2050 Daily demand (m3) 4,240 3,000 3,000 Annual Demand (m3) 1,548,330 1,095,000 1,095,000

Note: The number of cattle shown for dryland areasincludes animals covered by the special purchasingscheme for livestock owned by pastoralists withoutgrazing rights in the DeltaIn times of drought, cattlemanagement becomes very problematic since manypastoralists from remote areas drive their animals into the Tana Delta to find grass and water. In order tointroduce an element of control it is proposed that all non-residentpastoralistswishingtograzetheircattleintheDelta indryperiodswouldbe required to registertheir names and their place of origin at the beginning of eachyear.Non-resident pastoralistswould then berequiredtopayanominalfeetocovergrazingofafixednumber of animals for a fixed period of time. PermitswouldbegrantedbytheCountygovernments,subjecttocarefulmonitoringtoensurethatthecumulativetotalofthenumberofregisteredcattleremainingbelowtheceilingof600,000.Preferencewouldalwaysbegiventothose pastoralists having permanent residences in the Delta.Duringdroughts,thebordersoftheDeltawouldbe policed by rangers to ensure that only registeredanimalswereadmitted.

Apurchaseschemewouldbesetuptobuycattlefromthoseherdersfromremoteareaswithoutpermitswhowould otherwise face severe hardship. These poorerqualitycattlewouldbeslaughteredattheabbatoirandthe meat would be processed in a Garsen factory toavoid compromising the Tana Delta brand for qualityproduce.

19.4.2 Water DemandWater demand is based on a maximum of 150,000cattleduring thewetseason in theTanaDeltaandupto 600,000 in the dry seasonwith an additional 10%consumption by sheep and goats, as shown in Table 19.6.

19.4.3 Employment and LivelihoodsThe number of livelihoods supported by open grazingcattleherdingwouldfallfromitspresentestimatedlevelof 2,200FTEs to around1,500FTEs, (seeTable 19.7) butasignificantnumberofthenewjobswouldattractafixedwageratherthanrandompaymentinkindunderexistingprovisions.

Employment 2010 2030 2050 Head of cattle 220,000 150,000 150,000 Employment (FTE) 2,200 1,500 1,500


19.4.4 Economic ValueThegrossvalueofstockwouldbeinexcessofKSh1,475million (See Table 19.5).

19.5 AgricultureThesocial,economicandenvironmentalimplicationsofthismajorcomponentofScenarioCarediscussedfirstundereachofthesub-categories(subsistencecultivationand communal/private sector partnership farming).Overallcharacteristicsarethendiscussedforthearea/extent,waterdemand,employmentandlivelihoodsandeconomic value.

19.5.1 Area and ExtentThe current areaof landwhich is used for some formof agriculture in thePlanArea consists of 370 km2 of dryfarming(inthicketandscrub),wetlandcultivationon123km2 in thefloodplainandgeneral farmingmainlyalong the river banks amounting to 31 km2, makinga total of 524 km2. Muchof the dry farming area isunder-utilisedandcultivationcouldbeintensifiedwithappropriate inputs of fertilizer, improved cultivationpracticesandprovisionofwaterfromlocaldamstorageandpumpedirrigation.Inadditionsomeofthewetlandfarming areas could be improved. In order to allocate an average of 3 acres (1.21 hectares) per household to the existingpopulationandnewhouseholdsformedintheperiodupto2030(15years)atotalof230,000hectareswouldneedtobeallocatedandimproved.OvertheLandUsePlanperiodtheproportionsoflandindifferentlanduseclasseswouldchangeasshowninTable 19.8witha gradual reduction in areas of dry andwet farmlandandtheirconversiontomoreintensiveuses.Thiswouldinclude 101 km2 under communal/commercial PPPschemes (rice, irrigatedandextensivevegetables, fruitfarming).

Land used by individual households to grow food forsubsistence forms a separate category from the largerareasofdrylandfarmingontheterracesandwetlandfarming areas in the floodplain.The latter areas cover37,000and12,300hectaresrespectively,amountingto49,300hectaresintotal.Landbeingusedforsubsistencefarmingandfordrylandandwetlandfarming(56,300ha) currently accounts for 25% of the Delta. In orderto raise this to the same percentage as land used for grazing (i.e. 65,000 ha) a total of 8,700 ha would beconverted to farmland fromexisting thicket and scrubby2050asshowninTable 19.8. Within the overall total of 65,000 ha of farmland a number of areas suitable for intensiveproduction (10,100ha)wouldbe selectedfor rice, vegetables and fruit farming as described in the sections that follow, while 25,000 ha would beretained in subsistence use. This leaves 29,900 ha ofrain-fed agricultural land beingmanaged by individualfarmers,communitygroupsandcooperatives involvingcommunities working with the private sector in PPPschemes.

19.5.2 Types of Farming StructureTwo categories of farming practice are discussed;subsistence farming by individual households and,community/PPP initiatives involving irrigation or rain-fed agriculture

19.5.2.1 Subsistence FarmingThe analysis undertaken in ScenarioA andB suggeststhatthecurrentdistributionof1.5acresofagriculturalland per family is too small to achieve self-sufficiencyand, in order to reduce poverty, the amount of landavailableforlocalfoodproductionshouldbeincreasedto the equivalent of 3 acres per household. As discussed insection19.3.2,thereareoptionsintermsoftheway

Table 19.8 Conversion of Land to Farmland 2010-2050


suchadditional land isallocated. It couldbeheldonacommunal basis or distributed to individual households. TherewouldbemeritinacommunalapproachsincethiswouldavoidperpetuatingthegradualencroachmentoffarmlandintograzingandotherareasoftheTanaDeltaasthepopulationrises.

A major drawback of distributing land to individualhouseholdsarisesfromthetraditionalpracticeofdividinglandequallybetweensonsonthedeathoftheentitledlandholder, resulting inprogressive subdivisionof landholding. In theevent thataschemefordistribution toindividual families is developed, this should be subject to a formal agreement, requiring this land to be passed toasinglerelative(maleorfemale)onthedeathoftheholder.Thiswouldmeanthatotherassetswouldneedtobefoundtoprovidesupporttootherrelatives,butitwould also encourage parents to consider limiting thesizeoftheirfamiliesonanentirelyvoluntarybasis.

Regardlessofthetypeofschemeadopted,theamountoflandrequiredtomeettheobjectiveofself-sufficiencyinfoodproductioninthePlanAreawouldincreasefromthecurrentnominal7,000hectares in2010 (0.6haor1.5acresperPokomoHousehold), to20,130hectaresin 2030 in order to meet the current projected rise in populationandanincreaseinlandperhouseholdto1.2hectares (3 acres), although it is hoped that voluntaryeffortstoreducethepopulationgrowthratewouldhelptostemthedemandforland.Beyond2030,increasinglystringent rules would need to be introduced to limitthe amount of land being converted to farmland for individualusesothatby2050amaximumallocationof25,000hectareswouldbereached.

19.5.2.2 Community/Public-Private Partnership Farming SchemesEvidence from other parts of the continent anddevelopedeconomiesworld-wideshowsthatcommunalinitiativesorpublic-privatepartnershipsarelikelytobemore efficient and cost effective than individual smallholder operations, and it would be appropriate for arangeofdifferentmodelstobetriedandtestedintheTanaDelta, from full community-owned andmanaged‘farmingcooperatives’topartnershipsbetweenprivatesectorinvestorsandcommunityoperators.Twomodelsare considered; the first would involve irrigation inareas close to theRiverTana,while the secondwouldconcentrateonareaswithrain-fedagriculture.

19.5.3 Types of Cropping RegimesTwocategoriesofcroppingregimeareconsidered;thefirst emphasises opportunities for irrigation while thesecondfocusesonrain-fedagriculture.

19.5.3.1 Irrigated CropsIndicative proposals have been developed for rice,intensive salad–type vegetables and fruit farming.Industrial crops are specifically excluded because oftheirhigherwaterdemands.

Rice:Thisproposalwouldallowforupto3,000hectaresofricetobegrowninseveraldifferentlocationswithinthe Upper and Lower Delta. It is assumed to includethe existing area of 2,000 hectareswhich is currentlymanagedbyTARDA.Underthisscenario it isassumedthatTARDA,oranysuccessorgovernmentagency,wouldrelinquish its role as farm manager and concentrate instead on provision of infrastructure services and technical advice. Over time the need for governmentinvolvementwouldreduceand itsrolewouldbetakenoverbyprivate sector advisorswhowouldbepaidbyresults. The preferred location for the additional riceholdingwouldbeeitheronlandformerlyincludedintheTanaDeltaIntegratedProjecttothesouthofGamba,orintheUpperDelta.

Intensive Vegetable Farming: A number of communal farms would be developed close to existing villages,each cultivating irrigated vegetables for sale in localmarkets, but also through a distribution network tomajor centres like the new port of Lamu, Garissa andMombasa.Theaveragesizeofeachfarmwouldbe50hectares, resulting in thecreationofup toeightynewfarmson4,000hectares.Afurther1,000hectareswouldbe allocated for farming extensive crops like maize,sunflowerandlegumes.

Fruit Farming: 2,000 hectares of new fruit orchardswouldbeplantedwithanaveragesizeof50hectares.

19.5.3.2 Rain-fed CroppingThe largest area of farmland in the Delta (30,000 Ha) distributed between existing wet and dry farmingareasandunreclaimedthicketandscrub istooremoteto be irrigated by gravity or pumped supplies but itsproductivity could be increased throughwise use andmanagement, including rain-water harvesting in smalldamsanduseofconservationfarmingtechniques.Thistypeoffarmingwouldhavethesamecharacteristicsasextensivevegetablegrowing.

19.5.4 Assessing the Individual ProposalsIn the subsectionswhich follow each type of farmingenterpriseisassessedintermsofareaandextent,waterdemand, employment and livelihoods and economicvalue.

19.5.4.1 Area and ExtentThe areas to be allocated to each individual crop are showninTable 19.9.


19.5.4.2 Water DemandThegrowthindemandforwaterwillbesignificantgiventheemphasisonirrigatedvegetableandfruitproduction,in addition to a ten-fold increase in the current areaunder rice production, as shown in Table 19.10 and 19.11.However, theamount required is less thanhalftheamount thatwouldbeneeded togrowsomeverywater-intensivecropslike20,000hectaresofsugarcaneasreviewedinScenario B.

Table 19.9 Breakdown of Types of Agricultural Practice and Cropping

Table 19.10 Growth in Water Demand in Agriculture (2010-2030)

Table19.11 Growth in Water Demand in Agriculture to 2050

Table 19.12 Employment and Livelihoods in Agriculture

19.5.4.3 Employment and LivelihoodsTheexpansionoflandundersubsistencefarmingwouldassista totalof16,775households (50%0f theentirepopulationinthePlanarea)tobecomeself-sufficientinfoodby2030.Otherhouseholdsengagedinpastoralismwouldbe supported through the livestockprogrammebut could also benefit directly in communal/privatesector farming initiatives. The number of livelihoodssupported by subsistence agriculture, given average


farmsizesover3acreswouldexceed70,000FTEs(at2FTEspersmallholding).Forareasunderdrylandorwetland cultivation, someparts are already farmed, but ifthesamefigureisappliedof50FTEsper1,000hectaresas is used for irrigated extensive cropping the totallivelihoodsinvolvedwouldbeintheregionof1950.

Inadditiontolivelihoodsinsubsistencefarmingandrain-fedagricultureasubstantialnumberofnewjobswould

be created within the irrigated farming enterprises.Thesewould includeover200FTEs inricecultivation,6,000inintensivevegetableproduction,50inextensivevegetable farming and 6,000 in fruit farming, giving a totalof12,250newjobsby2030.Continuingexpansionofagriculturewouldadd1,000jobsinintensivevegetableproduction,andanother6,000infruitfarming(7,000intotalby2050),assummarisedinTable 19.12.

Table 19.13 Overall Performance of New Agricultural Enterprises in 2030 and 2050


19.5.5.4 Economic ValueThe value of subsistence farming as set out in Table 19.14, is based on the calculations and assessment insection16.5.4.

ThegrossvalueofthenewfarmingenterpriseshasbeenassessedasUSD69Million(KSh5767million)in2030andUSD132Million(KSh11,129million)in2050(seeTable 19.15).Theoverallperformanceofnewagriculturalenterprises is summarised in Table 19.15.

19.6 Fishing and Fish FarmingTwodifferentaspectsoffishingandfisheriesneedtobeconsidered. These are freshwater andmarine capturefisheriesandaquacultureormariculture.

19.6.1 Capture Fisheries

19.6.1.1 Area and ExtentCoastalfishing fromKipini is currently restricted in itsextentbythe localfishermen’sdependenceoncanoesthatarenotdesignedtocopewithdeepandroughwaterconditions. Foreign fishing fleets fish in deeperwater.The development of a marine fishery would requirecreationofapermanentharbournearthemouthoftheRiver Tana and purchase of sea-going fishing vessels.Bothobjectiveswouldbedifficulttorealiseduetothedynamicnatureof theRiverTanaestuarywithshiftingsand banks and severe coastal erosion, and the highcostofbuyingandequippingsea-goingfishingboats.Inaddition, strong competitionwould exist fromMalindiand from the planned industrial fishing port at Lamu,plannedaspartoftheLAPSSETinitiative.

Table 19.14. Value of Food Production through Subsistence Farming

Table 19.15 Summary of New Agricultural Enterprises

Analternativetoindustrialscalemarinefishingcouldbetoconcentrateon sportfishing,using fast, lightweightrecreationalvesselstotakefishingpartiesondaytripsto catchmarlin, sharks andother gamefish.This typeoffishingwouldrequiresignificantdevelopmentofthetourism infrastructure to attract wealthy patrons andwould,again,beincompetitionwithestablishedresorts.Forthesereasons,thedevelopmentofthemarinefisheryisseenasarelativelylowpriority.

Fishcapturefromlakes,riversandtheseawillcontinueto provide an important source of food protein and income,anditssuccesswilldependlargelyuponexternalfactors, including the maintenance of long term mean and flood flows in the River Tana and nutrient levelsand temperature in the Somali offshore current, andinternalfactorsincludingthenatureandsophisticationoffishinggears.Most freshwaterfishcapture isbasedonwild stockwhichbreed in the shallowwaters afterfloodingeventsand thencongregate in themain riverchannelsand larger lakes likeMoaaswater levels fall.Themainlimitingfactorintermsofproductivityiswateravailability.

19.6.1.2 Water DemandFreshwater capture fisheries are entirely dependentupon themaintenanceof theRiverTana’sflowregimewhichincludesperiodsofdroughtandannualflooding.Breedingcyclesofmanyfreshwaterspeciesaregearedto the periods of flooding when inundation of richgrassland creates ideal conditions for fish fry to feedbeforemigratingtothemainriverchannelswherefishresideduringperiodsof lowflow. Interruptionstothisnaturalcyclethroughreduction infloodflowshashad


severeadverse impactson freshwatercapture in lakeslikeMoaandthemainriver.

Therearenodirectdemandsonfreshwaterformarinefisheries, but discharge of water from the River Tanais thought toplaya critical role indeliveringnutrients(through sediment load) to the Indian Ocean and helps to maintainthequalityoftheoffshorefisheries.Freshwateralsoplaysakeypartinformingthebrackishwaterwhichsupports various mangrove species that, in turn, provide breeding and nursery grounds for many species ofmarinefishandshellfish.

19.6.1.3 Employment and LivelihoodsThe number of individuals who gain a FTE livelihoodfromcapturefisheriesisestimatedinTable 19.16.

19.6.1.4 Economic ValueProjections of the value of freshwater and marinecapturefisheriesareshowninTable 19.17.

19.6.2 Aquaculture and Mariculture

19.6.2.1 Area and ExtentA more promising opportunity exists to promoteaquaculture,andpossiblymariculture, insomepartsof

All livestock 2010 2030 2050 Daily demand (m3) 4,240 3,000 3,000 Annual Demand (m3) 1,548,330 1,095,000 1,095,000

Table 19.16 Employment in Freshwater and Marine Fisheries

Table 19.17 Freshwater and Marine Capture Fisheries Extrapolated to 2030 and 2050

Table 19.18 Fish Farm Development in the Delta to 2030 and 2050

Element 2030 2050 Number of Fish ponds 530 1060 Total surface area (Hectares) 26.5 53 Number of fish stocked as fingerlings /year 180,200 360,400 Yield / Tonnes / Hectare 5.5 5.5 Total weight harvested (Tonnes/annum) 1,272 2544 Value of fish harvested (KSh million) 44.5 89

theTanaDelta.Pilotprojectshaveshownthatfishpondscan be constructed and stocked with Tilapia toprovideacontinuoussourceoffreshfishforindividualcommunities. There are some significant challenges,including the risk of flooding which allows fish toescape,butwithgooddesignandpropermanagementthere is great potential for extending the commercialpossibilities of aquaculture. Table 19.18 shows theprojected increase in production and income fromconstructingtwofishfarmsforeachvillageasmodelledunder Scenario B.ThesameassumptionsareappliedinScenario C.

19.6.2.2 Water DemandThecriticalissueforallformsoffishingandfishfarmingrelates to the availability of good quality water atessentialperiodsinthefishbreedingandrearingcycle.Precise quantities cannot be estimated but the basicrequirement to satisfy maintenance of healthy riverand oxbow lake fisheries will be preservation of theenvironmental reserveandminimumflowof60m3/secintheRiverTana.

Marine species accounted for 36% of the catch in 2007. Price KSh 86/kg


19.6.2.3 Employment and LivelihoodsThenumberoflivelihoodssupportedbyaquaculturehasbeenestimatedinsection18.6.3.ThesameassumptionswouldapplyunderScenarioCandonthisbasis106fulltimejobswouldbecreatedwithafurtheronefulltimeequivalent position (shared by ten assistants) for eachcommunitymaking212jobsintotal.

19.6.2.4 Economic ValueEstimatesof thevalueoffishharvestingare shown inTable 19.18.

19.7 Bee Keeping19.7.1 Area and ExtentTheassumptionmadeunderScenarios A and BwouldapplywithequalrelevancetoScenario C.BeekeepingcanbepractisedthroughouttheTanaDeltabutespeciallyinareaswithsubstantialtreecover.

19.7.2 Water DemandWater isessential forbeesbut thequantities involvedare not significant in terms of the overall balance ofsupplyanddemand.


19.7.4 Economic ValueProviding themain conservation habitats are properlymaintainedtherewouldbemajoropportunitiesforeachcommunitytodevelopastrongtradeinhoney,waxandpropolis as a result of increasing the number of modern bee hives and introducing mechanised processing and bottling of honey. The projections of the increase inyield,andvalueofprojectionarecarriedforwardfromthepreviousscenariosasshowninTable 19.19.

Year 2010 2030 2050 No of Hives 12,150 24,000 36,000 ‘000 Kgs 68-‐96 240 360 KSh Million 20-‐29 72 180

Table 19.19 Projections of Honey Production from 2010 to 2030 and 2050

19.8 Natural ResourcesThis scenario places strong emphasis on managing the natural resources of the Tana Delta and PlanArea tomuch higher standards than are currently practiced,andthisshouldimprovetheoverallvalueofecosystemservices. However, the scenario also recognises thatcontinuedgrowthofpopulationwill increasepressureson the natural habitat and so it would be unrealisticto assume that yields and gross production can besignificantlyimprovedabovepresentlevels.

19.8.1 Non Timber Forest Products

19.8.1.1 Area and ExtentAsnoted in the existing situation report and ScenarioA, the land use zones fromwhichmost rawmaterialsare harvested are forests, riverine forests, floodplaingrasslandandmangroves.Theseareaswillbemaintainedat their present extent and therefore the sameassumptionsarerelevant.

19.8.1.2 Water DemandMaintenance of the environmental reserve of 60m3/secwillprovidetheappropriateconditionsforsustainingthehabitatsthataretheprincipalsourcesofNTFP.

19.8.1.3 Employment and Livelihoods Harvesting of fruits, roots and tubers and medicinalplants would continue with around 5,000 collectorsworkingfulltimein2010risingto8,365individualsby2030.Thereafterthenumberwouldremainconstant.

19.8.1.4 Economic ValueThe contribution to the local economy will be in theregionofKsh80millionat2002pricesrisingtoKSh134million in 2030 and KSh242 million in 2050.

19.8.2 Building Materials

19.8.2.1 Area and ExtentIn this scenario it is assumed that existing levels ofexploitation forgrass, reeds,palm leaves,timberpolesand rope could be sustained in order to maintain the existinghousingstockandtoconstructnewhouses intheremoterareasoftheTanaDeltawhicharedifficult,ifnotimpossible,toreachbyboat.However,thegrowthofpopulationandrateofformationofnewhouseholdswouldmakecontinuingrelianceonnaturalmaterialsforthebulkofconstructionmaterialsunrealisticinthelong-term. Consequently, it is assumed that by 2030 onlyhalfofthenewhousingstockwouldbebuiltofnaturalmaterialsandthisproportionwoulddroptoaround10%by2050.Theneedto importcement,concreteblocks,bricks,androofingmaterials(zincsheetandtiles)wouldrepresent a significant additional cost for householdsin the Tana Delta which could only be met through


increased earnings from the sale of agricultural products andlivestockorfromdirectemployment.

Oneof the special characteristicsof theTanaDelta isits cultural diversity, including the traditional styles ofhousing construction. In the interests of maintainingthesetraditionsandalsoattractingincomefromtourismtherewouldbeastrongargumentforidentifyingsomeof the existing communities in remoter areas of theDelta where incentives would be offered to maintaintraditional life styles and customs, including buildingstructures.

19.8.2.2 Water DemandMaintenance of the environmental reserve of 60m3/secwillprovidetheappropriateconditionsforsustainingthehabitats that are the principal sources of natural building materials.

19.8.2.3 Employment and LivelihoodsIn the period up to 2030 1,517 full time equivalentlivelihoodswould be provided eachyear in traditionalhouse construction and repairs. Beyond that datenumberswouldprogressivelyreducetoaminimumlevelofaround150jobsayearby2050.

19.8.2.4 Economic ValueThe value of traditional construction would remainto that estimated for Scenario B, due to the need toconservenaturalmaterialsandresourcesbeyond2030.Table 19.20showsthevaluerisingfromKSh100millionin2010toKSh169millionin2030andKSh305millionin 2050.

19.8.3 Charcoal and Fuel Wood

19.8.3.1 Area and ExtentThe current level of fuel wood extraction and timberexploitation for charcoal is close to, if not above, thesustainableyieldfromtheremainingforestsandthicketsofthePlanArea.Consequently,theLandUsePlanneedstoincludeanalternativestrategyforprovidingheatandlighttotheTanaDeltacommunities.Itisassumedthatthecurrentlevelsoffuelwoodandcharcoalextractionshould not be exceeded by more than 10% and that

Product No of Households Value (Million KSh) New Building Construction 27,115 4,880 Clean technology cooking stoves 27,115 22.8 Solar installations 27,115 1,220

Table 19.20 Use of Natural Resources for Building Construction in 2010 and 2030

everyeffortshouldbemadetointroduceimprovedandalternative technologies. It is estimated that around70km2 of forest, woodland and thicket/scrub is usedto harvest timber for firewood and charcoal. Tomeetpro-rata increase in demand in 2030 would requirethatthisfigureisraisedto123km2whichiscompletelyunsustainable. Consequently, production of charcoaland firewoodwould need to be substantially reducedbefore 2030.

19.8.3.2 Water DemandThe continued growth in demand for charcoal andfirewood would have an adverse effect on wateruptakebutcouldnotbesustainedinanyeventwithoutdamagingthebiodiversitystatusoftheTanaDelta.Itisthereforeassumed thatproduction levels should taperoffassoonaspossibleandtheamountofcharcoalandfirewoodharvestedeachyearshoulddeclinerapidly.

19.8.3.3 Employment and LivelihoodsUnderthestrategyproposedinScenarioC,employmentin charcoal and firewood manufacture should remainstatic at 4,971 FTEs and subsequently decline to lessthanhalfthisfigureby2050.

19.8.3.4 Economic ValueCurrent production levels contribute in the region ofKSh195millionin2010andalthoughfurtherincreaseinproductionisinevitableuntilthepointisreachedthatalternative technologies are adopted, the aim shouldbe tomaintain this level by increasing the amount ofcharcoalandfirewoodthatisproducedfromsustainable(i.e managed) forest plantations in areas outside themostsensitivehabitats.

19.8.4 Alternative TechnologiesAsafirststep,morefuel-efficientcookingstovesshouldbeintroducedtoreducetheweightofcharcoalneededfor each firing.Then, the opportunities for alternativefuels including cooking gas and kerosene and ruralelectrification, using both conventional power andsolar energy, should be targeted. The introduction ofphotovoltaic panels on the roofs of buildings could in itselfcreatesignificantemploymentfornewcontractors.


For construction, the minimum cost10 of providing lowcost socialhousingofcomparablesize toPokomodwellingsisintheregionofKSh180,000perunit,whilealternative fuel prices are roughly double the cost ofcharcoal.Solarheatingandelectricitygenerationoffersmajor opportunities for improving living conditions intheTanaDeltabutatcostswhichcannotbeconsideredat current income levels. A small solar photovoltaic system capable of lighting a house and powering oneor two small appliances with a combined demand of30-50wattscurrentlycosts intheregionof300-500$(KSh22-45,000) (Ikiara,2009). Costs have been fallingsteadilywithincreaseddemandand,inthetimescaleofthePlan, thescope for introducing ruralelectrificationandindependentsolarsystemswillbeveryconsiderable.

19.9 TourismScenario C incorporates and extends the ideas fortourismthatwerediscussedinScenario B. This includes the development of new hotels, camping sites andprovisionofancillaryrestaurantandcateringservices. 19.9.1 Area and ExtentAccordingtotheTanaDistrictDevelopmentPlan(2008-2012) there are currently six hotels within the TanaDelta. There are also a number of small establishments offering rooms with minimal facilities for overnightaccommodation inGarsenandWitu.Coldandcookedfood is sold by street traders and each town has afew small food outlets catering primarily for the localcommunity. The catering, guesthouse and restaurantsector can be expected to grow with rising levels ofcommercial activity ineachof themain centres and itisreasonabletoexpectthatagoodqualityhotelwillbeestablishedinGarsenandWitu,andpossiblyTarasaa.

The Tana Delta offers major opportunities fordeveloping eco-tourism based on its biodiversity andstatusasaRamsarsite.Birdwatching,wildlifeviewingandculturaltourswouldhaveinternationalappeal.Themost significant areas for eco-tourism would include,thecoastline,therivernetworkespecially inthe lower

Table 19.21 Alternatives to Natural Resource Use in the period 2030-2050

Product No of Households Value (Million KSh) New Building Construction 27,115 4,880 Clean technology cooking stoves 27,115 22.8 Solar installations 27,115 1,220

10Houses built under slum clearance and emergency relief schemes by charities like Habitat.

reachesaccessedfromKipini,OziForest,otherriverineforestsandtheTanaPrimateNationalReserve.Twohighqualitytentedandchaletcampingsitescouldbeaccommodated,onewithinthelowerDeltaandthesecond in thePrimateReserve; eachwith30-40unitsproviding60-80bedspaces.

19.9.2 Water DemandWater consumption in catering and hotels can besignificant but for the purposes of the Scenarioassessment these activities are subsumed within theoverall development of the urban areas.

19.9.3 Employment and LivelihoodsOntheassumptionthatintheregionof200livelihoodsare supported at the present time by this sector, thisnumbercoulddoubleby2030to400anddoubleagainby2050to800fulltimejobs.

19.9.4 Economic ValueIfitisassumedthatthreehotelsarebuiltwithatotalfloorspace of 36,000 m2 and6quality restaurantscovering1,200m2thedevelopmentcostatcurrentpriceswouldamounttoaround2.23billionKShor25.4millionUSD.Developmentoftwocampsitescouldcostintheregionof50millionKShor570,000USD.

Avery rough assessmentof annual turnoverhasbeenmadebyassuming60%occupancy,theindustrystandardforviableoperations (Odhengoet al,2012a),with120bedspacesintentedaccommodationand300bedspacesin hotels. Rates for tented and hotel accommodationhave been assumed to be $40 (KSh 3,360) and $100(KSh8,500)respectively.ThecombinedgrossturnoveramountstoKSh640millionwithanadditionalKSh100million for restaurant and catering enterprises.

19.10 Trade, Commerce and Financial Services19.10.1 Wholesale and RetailWholesale, retail and the repair sectors are heavily


dependent on the overall state of local and nationaleconomies since these goods and services are required by all other activities, like farming, livestock rearing,mining,transport,constructionetc.Similarlytheleveloffinancialactivityisrelatedtotheoverallstrengthoftheeconomy.

19.10.1.1 Area and ExtentThewholeoftheDeltaPlanAreawouldbenefitfromanexpansionintradeandfinancialservices.

19.10.1.2 Employment and LivelihoodsThere would be significant growth in employment inthesetwosectors.

19.10.1.3 Water DemandTrade and finance would have only domestic scaledemandsforwaterandthefiguresaresubsumedwithingeneral water consumption for the population as awhole.

19.10.1 4 Economic ValueEstimatesof thevalueof tradewhichwere generatedfor the Existing Situation and Scenario A would notbe relevant to Scenario C which represents a hybridbetweenA and themore commercialmodel of futuregrowthrepresentedbyScenarioB,sinceeachcommercialactivitywouldgeneratesignificanttradeinitsownrightandthis inturnwould leadto indirectgrowth intrade(themultipliereffect).Forthisreasonthevalueoftradeis modelled using the same percentage for this sector asoccursinthenationaleconomy(10.8%).Similarly,thecontributionmadebythefinancialsectorisassessedat4.2%(Mbuvi,2004).

The value of trade is estimated at KSh 4,057 millionin 2030 andKSh8,647million in 2050,while financecontributesKSh1,578million in2030 andKSh3.363million in 2050 (see Table 19.22).

19.11 Mining and Quarrying19.11.1 Oil and Gas Exploration and Development

19.11.1.1 Area and ExtentUnder Scenario C it is assumed that large scale sandmining or other mining activities that would have asignificantimpactonthelandsurfaceoftheTanaDelta,

Table 19.22 Contributions to the Local Economy of the Delta under Scenario C from Trade and Finance in KSh Millions

would threaten theTanaDeltaecosystemandconflictstronglywiththesocial,culturalandeconomicinterestsof the local communities. Such development wouldhave large areas allocated to mineral prospectors as areasof search forminerals likeoil andgas, andmostof the Tana Delta is included within a prospectinglicencearea. Initial reconnaissance isundertakenusinglight aircraft (or vessels at sea) to carry out airborneremote sensing, or by seismic surveys on the ground.Ifinterestinganomaliesareidentifiedintheunderlyingrockstructures,whichsuggestthepresenceofoiland/orgasreservoirs,thenextstageofexplorationinvolvesdrilling one or more pilot boreholes. In many casesthe boreholemay penetrate rockswith the necessarycharacteristicstosupportoilandgasbutthewellswillbedry.Ifthepresenceofhydrocarbonsisconfirmedtheboreholemaybecapped toallowsubsequent re-entrytoevaluatethefind.Theexistenceofoiland/orgas inundergrounddepositsdoesnotmeanthatexploitationwillautomaticallyfollow.Samplesoftheoil/gasaretakenfor analysis and very detailed studies are required tomodelthethree-dimensionalcharacteristicsofthe‘oil/gasfield’inordertodeterminehowmuchexploitablegasoroilispresentandwhetheritisofasuitablenaturetoextractusingcurrenttechnology.Thesearchforoilandgasalsoextendsouttosea,wheregeologicalconditionsarethoughttobesimilartothoseofftheTanzanianandMozambican coasts where large gas finds have beendiscoveredinthelastfiveyears.

If, after exhaustive tests, a ‘commercially viable’ findis announced, the operating companywill develop anextraction plan and programme, raise the necessaryfinance for developing the oil/gas field and apply foran extraction licence. Both stages of exploration anddevelopment should involve a full environmental and social assessment as part of the technical studies.

Theamountoflandrequiredtopositionanexplorationdrilling rig is less than one hectare, although access is requiredforheavyequipmentbyroad.LargepartsoftheTanaDeltawouldbeinaccessibletodrillingequipmentunless it could be transported by barge or helicopter.However,accessroadscouldbeusedtoreachasufficientnumberoflocationsforthenecessarytrialstotakeplaceintheeventofapotentialoil/gasdiscovery.


Ifoiland/orgaswasfoundinexploitablequantities,theoperatingcompanywouldplanoneormorepermanentwell sites from which the oil and/or gas could beextracted.Thiswouldentaildrillingproductionwellsandthenconnectingthesetopipelineswhichwouldconveythe crude hydrocarbon output to a site for onwardshipment (by sea)or to a land-basedprocessingplant.ThelogicaldestinationofanyoilorgasfoundintheTanaDeltawouldbetheproposedoilrefinerytobebuiltaspartoftheLAPSSETproject.

19.11.1.2 Water DemandIn the exploration stage water is used as a mediumto carrydrillingmud to thebaseof anyborehole as alubricant, to reduce the temperature of the drill bit and toflushoutrockparticlesandcarrythesebacktothesurface.Useofwater needs to be carefully controlledto avoid environmental damage from the dispersal of wastesanddrillingmud.Intheoperatingphase,waterissometimesusedtopressuriseanundergroundreservoirandeffectivelyforceoilandgaswhichistrappedintherockintothewellandbacktothesurface.

Onlyasmallamountofwaterisusedintheexplorationphases whereas large quantities can be required tosupportproduction.

19.11.1.3 Employment and LivelihoodsMostoperationsassociatedwithoilandgasexplorationanddevelopmentarevery technicalandrequirehighlyskilled and experienced workers. As a consequence,most jobs can only be filled by external experts.However, in the development phase, a large supportteam is needed including drivers, labourers, road builders, pipeline welders, engineers and mechanics.Fewerthanfiftyworkersarerequiredduringexplorationand perhaps 200-300 during the development phase,reducingtofewerthanfiftyagain,oncefullproductionhas commenced.

19.11.1.4 Economic ValueThe cost of sinking an individual borehole can easilyexceedUSD50millionanddevelopmentofasubstantialoil/gasfieldmayrunintobillionsofdollars.Consequently,an oil and/or gas project would only proceed in theTanaDeltaiftheeconomicreturnsweresimilarlylarge.Experienceelsewhere, including thenewTurkanafieldinKenyaandtheAlbertineRiftfindsinUgandahighlighttheneedtoplanforsignificantbenefitstoflowtolocalcommunities in the affected areas as well as to thenational exchequer and thiswill be a key concern forboth County Governments if oil and gas is eventuallyfound in the Tana Delta area.

Table 19.23 Potential Oil and Gas Development in the Tana Delta

Exploration Phase Requirements Area required for drilling 1-‐5 hectares Water requirements Low (under 1 million m3) Employment / Livelihoods 10-‐50 workers

Value USD 1 -‐20 million Development Phase Area required for drilling, pipelines, storage yards, access

50-‐200 hectares

Water requirements Unknown (potentially large) Employment / Livelihoods 200-‐300 workers during construction.

Under 50 workers during production Value Multi-‐million dollar investment


19.11.2 Heavy Mineral Sand Mining

19.11.2.1 Area and ExtentThe Tana Delta sand dunes have been identified asa promising location for finding commercially viablequantities of heavy mineral sands, comprising rutile,ilmenite and zircon. Similar deposits exist along theSomalian coastline and in Kwale County (the mostsoutherly on the coast). There are many seriousreservationsaboutworkingmineral sands in theDeltabecauseofthedamagethatwouldresulttotheRamsarsite.Neverthelessthedetailsofcomparableoperationsaregivenhereinordertoallowanassessmentofcostsandbenefitstobemade.

AtitaniumminehasbeenopenedinKwaleCountywiththe first shipment of minerals taking place in 2013.TheKwalemineexpectstoproduce440,000tonnesofilmenite,rutileandzirconoveraperiodof13years.Theextracted concentrate is shipped froma purpose builtcoastal jettytaking largetankerstooverseasrefineries(principally in Australia) (Moolman, 2013). Over $300millionintaxesandroyaltieswillbegeneratedforKenyaover themine’s life. (MiningWeekly Sept, 2013). Thedeposit has been quoted as holding 3.1 billion tonnes of highgrade(3%)heavyminerals.

Oreconcentrationsareusuallycloserto1%ofthetotalvolumeofsandthatmustbeexcavated,soadevelopmentexporting400,000tonnesofconcentrateayearwouldinvolvemininginexcessof40milliontonnesofsandayear,equivalenttoanareaof200hectaresfromasanddunewithanaverageheightoftwentymetres.

Two methods of extraction are typically used. If theoredepositisabovethewatertablelargeearthmoving

excavators and dump trucks or mobile conveyorsare used to transfer the sand to a processing plant. Alternatively, if thedeposit lies below thewater tablea largelagoonisexcavatedinordertoallowamassivefloatingdredgertobeintroduced.Sandisthendredgedand pumped through pipelines to the processing plant. Regardlessofthemethodofextraction,theseparationof heavy minerals from low grade ‘worthless’ sand isundertaken using centrifuges, filters, electrostatic orchemical means. The concentrated ore is dried and exportedwhile sludge and slime residues are pumpedtosettlinglagoonsorreleasedinopenwater.Bulksandis usually returned to the site of excavation to allowrehabilitationtotakeplace.

Alloftheseprocesseshavevaryingdegreesofadverseenvironmental impact.

19.11.2.2 Water DemandLarge amounts of water are needed at all stages ofextractionandprocessing.AparticularchallengeontheKenyancoastisthepotentialfordisruptionofrecharge,orsalinecontaminationofexistingsandduneaquifers.

19.11.2.3 Employment and LivelihoodsLarge scale extraction processes of this nature willtypicallyrequirealabourforceof100-200.

19.11.2.4 Economic ValueThe average value of the three main products is around $400/tonne,givingagrossturnoverofUSD176millionayear.

Phase of Operation Requirements Area of land taken each year 200 hectares Excavation of sand each year 40 million tonnes Annual reinstatement 200 hectares / 39 million tones sand Disposal of slimes / silt each year 1 million tonnes Use of water In excess of 40 million m3 Number of Employees 250 Annual Turnover USD 176 million

Table 19.24 Typical Heavy Mineral Sands Mining Operation


Table 19.25 Development of Industrial Estates

19.11.3 ManufacturingThe assumptions made about manufacturing andindustrial development under Scenario B have beenincorporatedwithoutchange inScenarioC, since theyrepresent themost cost-effectiveandenvironmentallysustainable way of providing employment andlivelihoods for the Tana Delta’s growing population.Developmentwouldbe focusedon the industrial sitesinGarsen,WituandTarasaa,withaspecialistcentreinKipini concentratingonfish and fruit processing. Fish,meat, dairy and natural rawmaterial processing couldbedevelopedasaspecific‘cluster’activityandgivenastrongmarketingidentityunderacollectiveTanaDeltabrand name.

TherangeofactivitieslistedintheISICisshownbelow.

Section C Manufacturing• Processingandpreservingofmeat• Processingandpreservingoffish,crustaceansand

mollusks• Processingandpreservingoffruitandvegetables• Manufacture of vegetable and animal oils and fats• Manufactureofdairyproducts• Manufacture of soft drinks; production ofmineral

watersandotherbottledwaters• Tanning and dressing of leather; manufacture of

luggage, handbags, saddlery and harness; dressinganddyeingoffur

• Manufactureofotherproductsofwood;manufactureofarticlesofcork,strawandplaitingmaterials

• Manufactureofpharmaceuticals,medicinalchemicaland botanical products

19.11.3.1 Area and ExtentAsinthecaseofScenarioBthisscenarioconsidersthepossibilityofestablishing three industrialparks,withamaincentreatGarsenandtwosubsidiarysitesinWituandTarasaa.However,anadditionalindustrialsiteisalsoprovidedatKipini.TheGarsenIndustrialCentrewould

occupy60hectaresandthoseatWituandTarasaa30hectareseach,witha10hectaresitedevelopedatKipini.

Itisassumedthat30%ofeachsitewouldbedevelopedasfactorieswiththeremaining70%allocatedtoexternalstorage,circulationandother infrastructure (electricitysub-station/transformer; water treatment plant; etc.).OnthisbasistheGarsensitewouldofferthepotentialof180,000m2(1.9millionsqfeet)offactory/warehousingspace.Therewouldbe90,000m2 building development in both Witu and Tarasaa, and 30,000 m2 in Kipini. Over thenextfifteenyearsto2030itisassumedthathalfthetotal area of the available development sites might be takenupwiththebalancebeingconstructedby2050togive390,000m2 in total.

19.11.3.2 Water DemandUnder Scenario C it is assumed that 16 factories are established in total within the 4 industrial parks,specialising inmeat processing (2), fish processing (2),fruit and vegetable processing (4), manufacture of animal andvegetablefats(1),dairyproducts(2),softdrinksandwater(1),tanningandleatherworking(1),bambooandplaited materials (2) and botanical products (1).

Totalannualconsumptionfromthetwelveplantswouldamount to around 200 million m3.Of thisasignificantproportion would be discharged as waste water andcould be returned to local water courses, subject topropertreatment.Actualconsumptionwouldbeintheregion of 20 million m3.

19.11.3.3 Employment and LivelihoodsIndividual factories could be expected to beginoperations with 5-15 employees increasing as thebusinessesbecamemoreprofitableandexpanded.Usingtheassumptionthatone job iscreatedforevery50m2

of floor space the 90,000m2 capacity of the potentialbuildingscouldsupport7,800workers.


19.11.3.4 Economic ValueDevelopment costs11 in Kenya currently range from20,000-60,000 KSh per square metre and factory/warehousing is at the lower end, although significantadditional costs would be incurred in providing roadaccess and services to the proposed business parks.Allowing for full development and equipment ofindividualfactoriesafigureof25,000Kshisallowedforthesixunitsdevelopedby2030,amountingtoagrosscapital investment of 4 billion Kenyan Shillings (45.6millionUSD).

19.12 InfrastructureSignificant development of infrastructure would takeplaceunderthehybriddevelopmentScenario C in order to support commercial farming and livestock rearingandthecreationofnewindustrialestates.Roadbuildingwouldbemostimportantbutpotablewatersuppliesanduntreatedwaterforirrigationwouldalsorequirepipeline(and/orcanal)construction.

19.12.1 ConstructionThe same assumptions on construction activity areapplied in Scenario CasweredevelopedforScenario B.

19.12.1.1 Area and ExtentOver the 40year period covered byScenario C there would be significant new development, including theindustrial parks, but also public institutions (schools,hospitals, administration centres) local feeder roadsand individual houses. A nominal area of 1,000 hectares is assumed for urban development. This analysisexcludes the levelof sitepreparation, land levellingorconstructionofcanalsandembankmentsthatwouldberequiredforirrigationschemeswhichisassessedwithinthose individual projects.

19.12.1.2 Water DemandConstructionwork requireswater for site preparation,concretingandblockmakingbut theseare short-termdemandsanddonotimposeasignificantloadonavailable

Nature of work 2010 – 2030 (Annual work load) 2030-‐2050 (Annual work load) Length Cost (USD) Length Cost (USD)

New Road Construction

2 120,000 2 120,000

Existing road rehabilitation

10 60,000 20 120,000

Total 180,000 240,000

water resources. A nominal amount of 50,000m3 per annumisassumedequatingto140m3/day.

19.12.1.3 Employment and LivelihoodsConstruction isan importantsourceofshort termandtemporary employment with both men and womenbeingemployedas labourers forsitedevelopmentandroad construction projects.Where there is continuityofprojectsoveranumberofyearssomelabourerswillacquire specialist experience and with appropriateeducationandtraining,theywilladvancetopositionsofforemen and supervisors. It is assumed that in the region of 200-300 full time equivalent jobswill be providedannuallyinthePlanarea.

19.12.1.4 Economic ValueConstruction is treated as an economic indicator inits own right when assessing a country’s economicperformance and typically lies in the range of 4-8%ofgrossvalueofGDP.Nodata is availableoncurrentconstructioncostsintheDeltabutastudybytheWorldBankin2000providescostestimatesbasedonasurveyof93projectsconstructedbetween1995-1999(Turner&Townsend,2012).TarredroadsinKenyatypicallycostinexcessofUSD600,000perkilometrewhereasgravelroadscostaroundUSD60,000(Sogomo,2010).

Table 19.26setsoutsometypicalcostsforroadwork.Itisassumedthat2kilometresofnewfeederroadwillbebuilteachyearandtenkilometresofexistinggravelroadwillberehabilitated.

19.13 TransportThesameassumptionsareemployedforScenario C, as weredevelopedforScenario B.

19.13.1 Area and ExtentLocal transportby roadandwaterplays avital part inmaintaining livelihoods and the economy of the TanaDelta. Canoes are used for both passenger and freight transportandeveryriversidevillagesupportsanumberof boatmenwith their own canoes. Pickup trucks and

Table 19.26 Indicative Costs for Construction and Repair of Roads in the Delta (2010 Prices)

11Cost of building in Kenya April 19, 2012 Business Construction News


Table 19.27 Growth of Urban and Rural Settlements

smalllorriesareusedformovinglargerfreightbyroad,but much of the area can only be accessed on un-surfacedroadsbybicycleormotorbike.Overthecourseof the plan period there would be a significant roadconstruction programme, providing surfaced feederroadstoallmainsettlements.

19.13.2 Water DemandWaterplaysakeyroleinsupportingtransportandcanattimescauseseriousdisruptionthroughfloodingofroadsandphysicaldamagetoinfrastructure.Howeverwateruse is minimal.

19.13.3 Employment and LivelihoodsTransportation is an important source of livelihoodsandemployment,especially formalesandyouths.Themajorityofthepopulationwilluselocaltransportatonetimeorother.Asaveryroughestimateitisassumedthatbetween500-1,000peoplemaybeengagedasdrivers,hauliersorcouriersinatypicalday.

19.13.4 Economic ValueTransportation, like construction is an importantcomponentofbothlocalandnationaleconomiessincethe marketing of goods and delivery of supplies andprovisionswouldbeimpossiblewithoutit.NoestimatescurrentlyexistforthevalueoftransportationwithintheTanaDelta.However,byapplyingthepro-ratafigurethatrelatestotheroleoftransportinthenationaleconomy(12.4%) it ispossible toprovidean indicationof grossvalue.ThefigurescalculatedforthedeltaareKSh2,106millionin2030andKSh4,437millionin2050.

19.14 Administration, Professional Services, Education and Health19.14.1 Public AdministrationKenya has experienced rising costs of publicadministration,duepartlytotheincreasedexpenditureon establishing new County Governments to replacetheformerprovincialadministration.Itwilltaketimetostabilisethelevelofadministrationcostsbuteventually

administrative services can be expected to expandin relation to the sizeofpopulation in anygivenarea.Scenario C anticipates significant economic growthwithintheTanaDeltaandthiswillrequirestrengtheningof the existing administrative services to be paid forlargelyfromincreasedturnover.

19.14.2 Professional ServicesWidening and diversification of the economic sectorsin theTanaDeltawillonlybeachieved if the levelsofentrepreneurial activity increase with an increasingnumberofprofessionalworkersinconsultancy,finance,marketing, and related fields to support and train thenew workforce. This sector is therefore expected togrowstronglyunderScenario C.

19.14.3 Education and HealthThesesectorsofthelocaleconomycanbeexpectedtogrowinlinewithnationalforecastsandareavitalpartofbuilding and strengthening the future of the Tana Delta.

19.14.4 Economic ValuationNo information is held on the level of employment intheseservicesectorsoftheeconomyalthoughitwouldbe reasonable toexpect thatnationalaverages shouldapply if the Tana Delta starts to develop strongly. Inordertoincludearealisticestimateoftheimportanceofthesesectorsintheeconomicevaluation,therespectivefigureshavebeenemployed from2012dataonGrossDomestic Product from theNationalAccounts. Publicadministration,educationandhealthcontribute11.1%ofthenationaleconomyandtheequivalentpercentageforTanaDeltagivesfiguresofKSh1,885millionin2030andKSh3,972millionin2050.

19.15 Urban AreasUrbandevelopmentisaddedtothisanalysisofeconomicactivities because although it does not appear in theInternationalStandardIndustrialClassification,itformsa vital component in the overall assessment of land use change under the three scenarios.

Development Component 2010 (Ha) 2010-‐2030 (Ha)

2030-‐2050 (Ha)

Total area in 2050 (Ha)

Residential Property 2,620 839 1,515 4,974

Commercial and Industrial 0 1,678 3,030 4,708

Total 2,620 2,517 4,545 9,682


19.15.1 Area and ExtentBasedonthefiguresforpopulationgrowthitispossibleto estimate the number of new houses that will berequired and the amount of land needed to accommodate residential buildings, schools, clinics, wells, shops,mosquesandchurchesandotheressential featuresofhumansettlement.Amajorissueforlocalcommunitiesintheyearsaheadwillbetheprocessofbalancingthedesire to maintain cultural traditions, including thenatureofhouses,useoflivestockcorralsandthelayoutof individualsettlementsandpublicstreetsagainsttheattractions and convenience of usingmodern buildingmaterialsincludingzincforroofsandbricksandconcretein place of grass, mud and thatch.

Such issueswillbeforeachcommunitytoresolveandthere isno intention to impose standards through theLand Use Plan, but at the same time it is helpful toanticipate themaximum requirement for building landandpublicopenspacewithineachsettlement.Forthisreason the assumption has been made that 50m2 of buildinglandshouldbeavailableforfamilygroupsof7peoplewithafurther200m2 forexternal livingspace,totalling 250m2 (equating to16dwellingsperacre;40perhectare).Theareaaddedforcommunityuse,publicopen space and roads/paths should match the totalallocatedtoindividualuse;soasettlementof5houses(occupying1,250m2)wouldrequireanadditionalareaof1,250m2 bringing the total to 2,500m2.Theseestimatesrelatetothedevelopmentofruralsettlements.

In the case of the larger urban settlements, a greaterareaof landwill be required for layingout communal,industrial, commercial and shopping areas and for providing thenecessary roadnetwork.This is likely tobe double the land area required for residential use.Usingthesefigures,thegrowthofpopulationby60,000by 2030 would require a total of 839 hectares forresidentialdevelopment,withafurther1,515hectaresby2050.Theequivalentincreaseintheurbanfootprintto meet communal, industrial, commercial and shopping activitieswouldbe1,678haby2030andafurther3,030haby2050.

19.16 Water Resources19.16.1 Water ConsumptionWaterconsumptionwillincreasewithrisingpopulationand the increase in farming and livestock rearing.Theuseofwater is accounted for under each typeofeconomicor livelihoods activity.There is thereforenoseparate breakdown of information under area anddemand or employment. However, it is important tonotethatwaterhasarealvalue,whetheritispaidforassuppliedbyapublicutilityorreceivedasafreegoodasrainorcollectedfromariver.Forthisreason,thevalueofwateriscalculatedinthesescenariosatthesamerateatwhichischargedtocommunitieswhorelyonkiosksandstandpipeswhichisKSh100per1000litres(1m3).

Domestic Consumption:Thecurrentlowlevelofdomesticwaterconsumption,assumed tobe20 litresperhead,(Mati,2006)should riseonhumanitariangrounds toaminimumof40litresperheadby2030andtodoublethisamountby2050(i.e80litres/head)(SeeTable 19.28). ThisisstillonlyhalfthecurrentpercapitaconsumptioninthemajorurbancentresofNairobiandMombasa.

Livestock watering will also add to overall waterconsumption, as shown in Table 19.29 Water consumption by Zebu cattle equates to 12-20 litres/head/day (FAO,2004)while sheep and goats consumeone tenth of this amount.

Farming and Irrigation: The expansion of subsistenceand community farming areas will result in additionalpumped and gravity irrigation schemes and create ademandfor48.7millionm3 in 2030, rising to a total of 75.7millionm3by2050.SeeTable 19.30.






Table 19.30 Water Demands for Farming and Irrigation

Table 19.31 Daily Demand for Water in 2010, 2030 and 2050


All livestock 2010 2030 2050 Daily demand (m3) 4,240 3,000 3,000 Annual Demand (Million m3) 1.548 1.095 1.095

Type of Farming 2010 2030 2050 Subsistence cultivation 183 309 557 Commercial /Irrigated 20 84 269 Total 203 393 826

Water Demand 2010 2030 2050 Domestic 2,040 6,960 25,200

Livestock 4,240 3,000 3,000 Irrigation 10,548 133,424 207,397

Total M3/day 16,828 143,384 235,597 Value KSh (Millions/year) 6.1 52.3 86.0

19.16.2 Water Sources Waterconsumption forall formsofabstractionbeginstomake an appreciable impact on available river flowby 2030 (taking 0.8% in 2030 and 1.8% in 2050).However direct abstraction is far less significant thantherequirementwhichwouldexisttoprovidesufficientwatertomaintaingrasslandandrangelandinaconditioncapable of sustaining themassive increase in stockingdensity. This is assessed separately in the Tana RiverDelta SEA report (Odhengo et al,2014a).However, asdescribedundertheexistingsituationsectionmostofthewaterwhichflowsthroughtheIdsoweBridgeisrequiredtomaintainthenaturalvegetationandgrasslandsoftheTanaDeltaduring thedry seasonandanydecrease innatural river flows below a monthly average of sixtycubicmetresofwaterpersecond(60m3/sec)asaresultof development upstream would rapidly affect thecapacityof thesystemtomaintain the livelihoodsandbiodiversityoftheDelta.Thisfigureof60m3/secondisreferred to as the environmental reserve.

19.17 Nature ConservationThissectionconsidersboththeopportunitiescreatedforsustainabledevelopmentthroughmanagementandwiseuse of the natural assets of the Delta and the challenges thatwouldremainintermsofprotectingofbiodiversity.

19.17.1 Opportunities for Sustainable Development

19.17.1.1 Area and ExtentThis scenario focusesonopportunities for commercialdevelopment and while nature conservation, thearts, entertainment and recreation are often thoughtof as public services there are a growing number ofexamplesofconservationandculturalprojectsthatareself-financing and highly profitable for their sponsors(whether private sector or communally owned).Countries likeSouthAfricanandBotswanahavemanycommercial and profitable game reserves but Kenyaitself has been a trend setter in demonstrating the


opportunities for communitygroups to setup tourismandgamemanagementprojects,especiallyintheMaasaiMara.Othersignificantcommunitybasedprojectshaveincluded the work of the Northern Rangelands Trust,which is an amalgam of more than ten CommunityConservancies, including Ndera Conservancy in theUpperDelta.Seriousgamemanagementrequiresmajorinvestment, including extensive fencing of the reserveperimeter and the development of lodges and trails for 4x4vehicles.

In the Tana Delta there are major opportunities forexploiting the existing natural flora and fauna, withboat rides into the core of thewetlands andwalking/driving trails within the Primate Reserve but theseactivitiesappealtoquiteanarrowsectorofthewildlifetourismmarket and itwould be necessary to broadentheappealbydevelopingotherattractions,e.g.butterflycentres,canopy levelwalkways through riverine forestand cultural events within traditional village settings.Nature Kenya, as an ‘extraterritorial organisation’,has spearheaded development of livelihoods withinsixvillages in theDeltaover the last fouryearsand iscommitted to continuing its association in the yearsahead in order to strengthen the conservation of thisunique series of habitats and communities. Otherconservationinitiativessharethesameaims.

Theareaswhichformtheprincipalexistingattractionsaretheprimatereserve(17,000hectares)andthecoreareaoftheDelta(70,000hectares).

19.17.1.2 Water DemandTheprimary requirement tomeet nature conservationneedsissufficientwatertomaintaintheexistingmosaicof habitats comprising river channels, forests, riverine forests, palm savannah, open water, wet grassland,marshes andmangrove forests.No detailed study hasbeen undertaken to confirm the full requirements ofthese complex ecosystems, but the Tana River DeltaSEA has confirmed, contrary to previous assumptions,that theRiverTanahashistoricallymaintainedameanmonthlyflowofnot less than50m3/secbelowGarsen(IdsoweBridge) except in very dry periods lasting 3-4months in exceptional drought years (Odhengo et al, 2014a).TwiceyearlyfloodingisalsoacriticaleventformaintainingthedeltahabitatsandapreliminaryestimatehasbeenmadeinrelationtothefeasibilitystudyfortheHighGrandFallsDamthat0.8billionm3ofwatershouldbe released annually in two events of 400millionm3overtendaystosimulatetheeffectoftheannualfloodsthat will be disrupted by constructing the dam (EgisBceomInternational,2011).

19.17.1.3 Employment and LivelihoodsNatureconservation isa largeuntappedmarketwhichoffers major opportunities for enhanced and newlivelihoods inmanaging thenatural habitat,wardeningits precious wildlife reserves and harvesting naturalproduce.Ifeveryvillagecommunityweretonominate5peopletoworkfulltimeonconservationactivitiesthiswouldofferalabourforceofalmost500.Inpracticeitis likely that themajorityof residentswill commitpartoftheirtimetonatureconservationwhileundertakingothertraditionallivelihoodpractices.

19.17.1.4 Economic ValueInmanycountriesthenaturalenvironment, landscapesand natural resources (like beaches, rivers, waterfallsand mountains) form the main attraction for eco-tourism,sportsandrecreationaltourism.Kenyabenefitsmorethanmostfromitsfaunaandflora,linkedwiththesceneryandculturalassetsofitsnationalparks.Kenyaisalsoaleaderindevelopinginnovativewaysofexploitingnatural assets to generate livelihoods and income for its local communities. The Northern Rangeland Trust(NRT)isoneexampleofanumbrellaorganisationwhichpromotes tourismandeconomicactivitybasedon theconservationvaluesofitscommunityconservanciesandtheTanaDeltahasfollowedasimilarapproach,albeitona much smaller scale.

In the NRT individual community conservancies earnmoney from a variety of enterprises including guidedtourism, managing tourism camps, and handiworkmanufacture. The Sera Project in Samburu East, withapopulationof8,000,operateswithabudgetofUSD110,000 per annum (Laikipia Wildlfe Forum, 2012).In comparison, West Gate Community Conservancy,with 3,500 people to support, has a budget of USD75,000 per year (Laikipia Wildlife Forum, 2012). Thisconservancy has leased out its tourism potential to aprivate company (Tamimi Co Ltd) which promotes an18bedluxurytentedcampopenedin2007.Anumberof conservancymembers are directly employed and aproportion of revenue is allocated to the conservancy(LaikipiaWildlifeForum,2012). Incomeprojections foranequivalentprojectsponsoredbytheAfricanWildlifeFoundation on community ranches on the edge ofAmboseli National Park show annual returns of USD42,000onaranchownedbythe248adultmembersofeightfamilies,equatingtoanannualincomeofUSD165peradult(Kiyiapi,et al, 2005).

It is assumed that two or three conservancies couldbe established for the Tana Delta, covering the coast, lowerfloodplainandupperfloodplain,althoughdetailednegotiations would be required with the existing


community groups including the Lower Tana DeltaConservationTrust, to reach agreement on the areas,structureandorganisation.Usingthemodelsdescribedabove, the aim would be to encourage all villages tojoinanumbrellaTanaDeltaTrustwiththreeassociatedcommunityconservancies.

Over the Land Use Plan period, three tourism lodgesmight be built with 25 bed spaces each generating$40,000ayear.ThetargetforannualIncomeundertheTana Delta Trust would be USD 200,000 per annum,with USD 120,000 being generated by the tradingactivities of each of the three conservancies andthe balance of USD 80,000 being attracted throughInternational sponsorship. Other income-generatingactivities tobepursuedby theTanaDeltaTrustmightinclude establishment of a local security business, theTana Delta Scouts, which would safeguard communalinterests and provide support to KWS in patrolling and monitoring wildlife and preventing poaching. Afurtherareaofconservationactivitycouldbelinkedtosafeguarding existing forest resources under aCarbonCreditsinitiative.

19.17.2 ChallengesScenario CpresentsanoptimisticviewoffuturelandusechangeandmanagementwithintheTanaDeltaoverthenext fortyyearsand if all themeasures recommendedin the LandUsePlan andSEAareput into effect, theoverallhealthoftheDelta’secosystemscouldbebetterthanitistoday.However,itwouldbeeasytooverstatethe opportunities and ignore the very formidablechallengeswhichstandinthewayofachievingthisgoal.ThemainthreatstocontinuedgoodhealthoftheTanaDeltawetlandsare:

1. Population growth – unless the rate of inwardmigration and natural increase are brought undercontrolby2030 there isnoprospectofdeliveringtheobjectivesofScenario C.

2. Water Resource Management in the Upper TanaBasinwill have tobegreatly improved inorder toensurethattheminimumenvironmentalflowsreachtheTanaDelta. National level decisions that havebeentakeninrecentyearsonexpansionofirrigationanddevelopmentof hydro-powerdonot give anydegreeofconfidencethatasustainablebalancewillbeachievedby2030.

3. Resource Use Conflicts – are largely based oncompetition for land and water and will increaseunless the first two challenges are effectivelyaddressed.However,beyondtheimpactofexternaldecisions on the Delta, there is now the need todevelop detailed internal land-use plans to giveeffecttoapreferredstrategybasedonScenario C. Thequestionthathastobeansweredis:willtherebe a sufficiently strong consensus amongst thecommunities and the required level of leadershipfrom both County and National governments toovercomethetensionsthatstillexist?

Providingthechallengesoutlinedabovearedealtwitheffectively Scenario CoffersawayforwardthatshouldsafeguardtheintegrityandbiodiversityoftheTanaDeltaforthenextfortyyears.

19.18 SummaryTable 19.33 provides an overall summary of Scenario C,which can be comparedwith the data given in theexistingsituationanalysis.


Table 19.33 Summary of Scenario C

Component Measure/Unit 2010 2030 2050 Population Thousands 102 175 315 Workforce Thousands 52 87 158 Urban Area Km2 26.2 51.4 96.8 Industrial land Hectares 10 70 130 Open Grazing Area occupied 112,800 25000 25,000 Cattle -‐ Maximum number 735,000 600,000 600,000 Cattle -‐ Minimum number 220,000 50000 50,000 Cattle -‐ Average number 477.5 325,000 325,000 Value Minimum (KSh 12,000/head) KSh million 2,640 600 600 Ranches (Delta) Area occupied (Ha) 9200 40000 40,000 Cattle -‐ Maximum number 480 100,000 100,000 Cattle-‐ Minimum number 480 100,000 100,000 Cattle -‐ Average number 480 100,000 100,000 Average value (KSh Million) @ 17,500/ head 8.4 1,750 1,750 Farming Subsistence (Area Km2) 62 201 250 Subsistence (people supported ‘000s) 51 87 158 Value of subsistence crops (KSh million) 183 309 557 Irrigated land (Ha) 385 9100 9100 Labourers all communal/commercial farming 12.4 12250 12250 Communal farmland (Km2) 4.5 300 650 Rain fed agriculture (KSh million) 0 2092 4166 Fishing ’000Kgs/annum 613 750 1025 Value (KSh million) 53 65.3 89.2 Fish farming Tonnes/annum 0 1272 2544 Value (KSh million) 0 44.5 89 Bee keeping Number of hives 12,150 24,000 36,000 Honey (000 Kg) 82 240 360 Value (KSh million) 25 72 180 Natural Products Area for required for harvesting (Km2) 70 123 123 People engaged 4971 8365 8365 Income generated from NTFP (KSh million) 80 134 134 Value of traditional building (KSh million) 325 325 325 Charcoal / Firewood -‐ average (‘000 tonnes) 58.7 58.7 58.7 Value of Charcoal and Firewood (KSh million 194 194 194 New building Value with new materials (KSh million) 0 244 244 New technology Annual value of cooking stoves / solar 0 62 62 Tourism Turnover (Value ‘000USD) (KSh million) 26 (2.2) 178 (15) 440 (37) Trade & Finance Value million USD (KSh million) 0.6 (501) 3 (2547) 6.4(5367) Mining Area Involved 0.5 0.5 0.5 Salt only-‐ No Oil Turnover KSh million 257 257 257 Industry Capital investment million USD (KSh million) 0 0.5 (45.6) 0.5 (45.6) Road Construction Capital investment ‘000 USD (KSh million) 0 180 (51) 240 (20 Water Demand All uses except reserve M3/day 16828 143,384 235,597 Value KSh (Millions) 6.1 52.3 86.0 Biodiversity Plant uptake (m3/day) 10,548 27,397 54,795


APPENDIX


APPENDIX 1: REVIEW OF NATIONAL POLICIES AND INTERNATIONAL CONVENTIONSThe SEA and LUP principles are both formulatedaround international standards, national legislationand government policy. A review of Kenya policiesand legislation does show that there is an enablingpolicyand legislativeframeworktoguideparticipatorynaturalresourcesmanagementinKenya.AllthepoliciesincludingtheKenyaConstitution2010andtheNationalLandPolicy2009,containprovisionssufficienttoensuresustainable landproductionprinciples, andsustainableconservation of land ensuring quality, environmentalaudit and assessment, productivity targets andguidelines as contained in EMCA and involving local communitiesinthejointmanagementofforestrynaturalresources as contained in the Forests Act 2005. Thischapter summarises some of the key environmentalacts and policies in Kenya. In addition some relevantintergovernmental agreements have been highlighted.

Kenya Constitution, 2010The Constitutional dispensation of Kenya (2010)recognizes Environment as a critical and integral partinachievingsustainabledevelopment.Article60oftheKenya Constitution sets out the principles on whichland shall be held, used and managed in a manner that is equitable, efficient, productive and sustainable.Article66(1)empowersthestatetoregulatetheuseoflandintheinterestofdefence,publicsafety,publicorder,publicmorality,publichealth,orlanduseplanning.

Article 67(1)(h) provides for establishment of theNational Land Commissionwhichwill be in charge ofmonitoringandhaveoversightresponsibilitiesoverlanduse planning throughout the country.Article 69 givesthe state power to ensure sustainable exploitation,utilizationandmanagementofnaturalresources.

Article42ofthebillofrightprovidesthateverypersonhastherighttoacleanandhealthyenvironmentgivingprominence to the environment not as a state-givenresource but rather God-given. Article 70(1) furtherempowersanycitizenwhoallegesthatarighttoacleanand healthy environment recognized and protectedunderArticle 42 has been, is being or is likely to be,denied,violated, infringedor threatened to apply to acourtforredressinadditiontoanyotherlegalremediesthatareavailableinrespecttothesamematter.

Chapter 5 of the constitution details the two inter-connected issues of land and the environment; whilepart1ofthischaptertacklesland,thelatterdetailstheobligationsinrespecttotheenvironment,enforcementofenvironmentalrights(article70)aswellasagreements

relating tonatural resourcesand legislation relating totheenvironment inarticle71and72respectively.Thelaw therefore underscores the need for sustainableutilization,exploitation,managementandconservationof the environment and natural resources as well asensuringecologically sustainabledevelopmentand theprotectionof ecologically sensitive areas such asTanaDeltawetlands.

Acts of ParliamentLand use planning and management is elaboratelycoveredinanumberofActsofParliamentsuchastheLandActof2012,LandRegistrationAct(2012),NationalLandCommissionActof2012,CountyGovernmentActof2012,UrbanAreasandCitiesActof2011,PhysicalPlanning Act (2012), Environmental Managementand Coordination Act of 1999, Water Act of 2002,The Wildlife Conservation and Management Act,2013, Agriculture, Fisheries and Food Authority Act,2013, Forests Act of 2005, the County Governments(Amendment) Act, 2013, Intergovernmental RelationsActof2012,TransitiontoDevolvedGovernmentActof2012 among others.

The Land Act, 2012 is anActofParliament thatgiveseffect to Article 68 of the Constitution; to revise,consolidateandrationalizelandlaws;toprovideforthesustainableadministrationandmanagementoflandandlandbasedresources.Article4(1)oftheActoutlinestheguiding values and principles of land management and administration.

The National Land Commission Act, 2012 provides for establishmentof theNationalLandCommissionwhichshall have among other core functions, the role offacilitatingthelinkagebetweentheCommission,countygovernments and other institutions dealing with landand land related resources.TheAct is in tandemwithArticle67(1)(h) of theConstitutionwhichprovides fortheestablishmentoftheNationalLandCommission.

The County Governments (Amendment) Act, 2013 tasks the county governments to prepare countyplans. Article102(1) of the Act empowers the CountyGovernment to plan for the county and further statesthat no public funds shall be appropriated outside a planningframeworkdevelopedbytheCountyExecutiveCommitteeandapprovedbytheCountyAssembly.Thecounty planning framework shall integrate economic,physical,social,environmentalandspatialplanning.

The Physical Planning Act (2012) mandates the DirectorofPlanningtopreparevarioustypesofphysicaldevelopment plans (regional and local) which providethephysicaldevelopmentframeworkforaffectedareas.Section 29 of theAct empowers Local Authorities to


prohibit or control the use and development of land and buildings in the interest of proper and orderlydevelopment of an area. Section 36 stipulates therequirementforconductingofanEnvironmentalImpactAssessment foranydevelopment that is likely tohaveinjurious effects to the environment or is particularlylarge in scale.

The Urban Areas and Cities Act, No. 13 of 2011 provides for the classification, governance andmanagement ofurban areas or cities. Clauses 5.1 of theAct providesfortheclassificationandestablishmentofUrbanAreasand Cities. Clause 36 stipulates that, every city andmunicipality shall operate within the framework ofintegrated development planning which, among otherresponsibilities, shall be the basis for developmentcontrolandacountygovernmentshallinitiateanurbanplanningprocessforeverysettlementwithapopulationofat least two thousand residents.Thepreparationoftheintegratedurbanareaorcitydevelopmentplanforacityorurbanareashallprovideforlinkage,integrationand coordination of sector plans and developmentcontrol.

The Forests Act, 2005 provides for the preservationand sustainable use of forest resources. The KenyaForest Service is the overall institution responsiblefor conservation and protection of forests and localCommunity ForestAssociations assist inmanagement.The Forests Act (2005) objectives include: theestablishment, development and sustainable management, conservation and rational utilization ofnaturalresourcesforthesocio-economicdevelopmentofthecountryforpovertyreduction,employmentcreationand improvement of livelihoods within a frameworkwhereprivatesector,localcommunitiesandcivilsocietyinstitutions and other stakeholders have a role toconserve water catchment areas, create employment,reducepovertyandensurethesustainabilityofwildlifeandtheforestsector.TheForestsAct(2005),emphasizesparticipatory forest management mechanisms withSection46(1)allowingtheestablishmentofCommunityForestAssociations(CFAs)andSub-section(2)allowingestablished associations to apply to the Kenya ForestService Director for permission to participate in theconservationandmanagementofastateforestorlocalauthorityforest.

The Water Act, 2002 has provisions for sustainable water management. TheWater Act 2002, is ideal forcatchment protection and protection ofwetlands andwellsandspringsthatsupportscommunityinvolvementin management of these areas. Section 71(1) of theWaterAct,2002requireslicensedwateruserstoenterinto agreements for catchment protection, drainageof land, carrying out soil conservation measures or

control of vegetation or effectively preserving purityand quantity of water. The Act establishes severalinstitutions to conserve and manage water resourcesinKenyaandallowscommunityparticipationinsupplyand conservation of water resources. The institutionsinclude Water Resources Management Authority(WRMA),WaterResourceUsersAssociations(WRUAs)and Water services boards and companies. The Act further declares the pollution of awater source as anoffence.TheAct defineswater reserve as the amountofwater thatmust be retained in the environment toguarantee sustainability of water supply for properecologicalandbiophysicalfunctions.InviewofvariousirrigationprojectsproposedintheDeltaitisimportanttodeterminethewater reserve in theTanabasin.Thiswillhelp indetermining theamountofwateravailablefor irrigation, livestock, industrial and domestic uses.Thiswillassistinrationalizingwaterresourceuseinthebasin.

The Intergovernmental Relations Act, 2012 provides a frameworkforconsultationsbetweentheNationalandCounty governments, among county governments anda mechanism of resolving disputes. The Act provides a mechanism for transferring or delegating powers andfunctions to another level or other statutory bodies.ThisActwillbeuseful infinalizingthepreparationandimplementationofTanaDeltaintegratedlanduseplan.TheTanaRiverDelta fallswithinTanaRiverandLamuCounties.

The Transition to Devolved Government Act, 2012 createsaTransitionAuthoritythatwillwithinthreeyearsensuresmoothtransferfunctions,powersandresourcesto thecounties.Theresources includemanpower.Thecounty governments will be responsible for countyplanning and management of natural resources for sustainablesocio-economicdevelopment.TheAuthoritywill thereforebe instrumental inproper functioningofcounties.

National Land PolicyTheoverallvisionoftheNationalLandPolicyistoguidethecountrytowardsefficient,sustainableandequitableuse of land for prosperity and posterity. It dealswithissuesofaccesstoland,landtenure,landadministration,landusemanagementandlandinformationmanagement.Land is perceived to be the most important andcherishednaturalassetbytheTanaDeltacommunitiesandothercoastalcommunities.Thegovernmentunderthe National Land Policy has prioritized to addresscoastallandproblemsandinjustices.Inthiscase,underitem 193 (h), in order to address the Coastal land problems the Government shall “Protect and conserve the Tana and Sabaki Delta ecosystems in collaboration with contiguous communities”.


The Sessional Paper No. 3 of 2009 on National LandPolicy covers environmental management principlesand highlights a number of environmental problems confronting Kenya including the degradation ofnatural resources such as forests, wildlife, water,marine and coastal resources as well as soil erosionand the pollution of air, water and land. To conserveand manage the environment, section 29 states thatmeasuresonconservationandsustainablemanagement,ecosystemprotection,urbanenvironmentmanagement,environmental assessment and audits, shall be undertaken. Section 31 recognizes the vital need offormulatingparticipatoryenvironmentalactionplansbycommunitiesandindividualslivingnearenvironmentallysensitiveareasinordertotakeintoaccountculturalandsocio economic issues, involve local communities andindividualslivingcontiguoustotheparksandprotectedareasintheco-managementofsuchareas,ensurethatforests are protected for their ecosystem values andnotmerely to physically exclude human activities andcreateaneffectiveinstitutionalframeworkandcapacitytoimplementinternationalconventionsespeciallythosetouching on access to land based natural resources.

Section 133 of the National Land Policy recognizesKenya’s diverse ecosystems which include forests,wetlandsmarineandcoastalecosystems,nationalparks,aridandsemi-aridlands(ASALs),watersheds,lakesanddrainagebasins.Section33ofthePolicynotesthatthetrans-boundary nature of these resources presents aformidable management challenge because of factors such as: conflicting uses and varied governanceframeworks. These factors lead to unsustainableexploitation of resources. In addition the problem ofunsustainable exploitation of resources is exacerbatedby inadequate enforcement of natural resourcemanagement guidelines. To ensure the protection ofecosystemsandtheirsustainablemanagement,Section33 states the Government shall develop procedures for co-management and rehabilitation of forest resources,recognizingtraditionalmanagementsystemsandsharingofbenefitswithcontiguouscommunitiesandindividualsandestablishparticipatorymechanismsforsustainablemanagementof fragileecosystems inpartnershipwithpublic,privateandcommunitystakeholders;andsection138statesthattheGovernmentshallensurethatalllanduses andpractices conform to landuse plans and theprinciples of biodiversity protection, conservation andsustainable development.

Item 51 (d) stipulates that the Government shallestablish development control standards, processes and procedures that are efficient, transparent andaccountable. In addition, Item 102 provides that theGovernment shall put in place appropriate strategies for managingsustainablegrowthanddevelopmentofurban

andruralareas.ThispolicyisthereforerelevantforthedevelopmentoftheTanaDeltaLandUsePlanaimedatensuringeconomicproductivityofthelandresourcesintheDelta.Currently,LandinTanaDeltaisfragmented.This has occasioned several disputes due to tenure andownershipleadingtoseriousinter-ethnicconflicts.Communitiesdonotlegallyowntheirancestrallandandthere are clear historical injustices pertaining to landrights.Thishasledtoinequalitiesinlanddistributionastheconceptofsingleownershipconflictswithcollectivecommunity interest in land. There is serious human-wildlifeconflictoverlandareas.

The Forests Act, 2005 and Wildlife Act Cap 376 of 1976The Forests Act, 2005 and theWildlife Conservationand Management Act, 2013 objectives include:the establishment, development and sustainable management, conservation and rational utilization ofnaturalresourcesforthesocio-economicdevelopmentofthecountryforpovertyreduction,employmentcreationand improvement of livelihoods within a frameworkwhereprivatesector,localcommunitiesandcivilsocietyinstitutions and other stakeholders have a role toconserve water catchment areas, create employment,reducepovertyandensurethesustainabilityofwildlifeand the forest sector.

TheForestsAct,2005,emphasizesparticipatoryforestmanagement mechanismswith Section 46(1) allowingthe establishment of Community Forest Associations(CFAs).Sub-section(2)allowsestablishedassociationstoapplytotheKenyaForestServiceDirectorforpermissiontoparticipateintheconservationandmanagementofastateforestorlocalauthorityforest.

This Act is currently being reviewed to align it tothe Kenya Constitution 2010, taking cognizance ofthe devolved governance structures. It provides for sustainable management of forests and forest products inthecountry.Itestablishesandempowerscommunityforest associations (CFAs) to manage forests andsupport participatory forest management. Currently,only oneCFA exists in the entireTanaDelta, and hasnot been empowered adequately to manage theforestsecosystemsherein.TanaDeltahasmanyforestecosystemswhichsupportbiodiversityandlivelihoodsofthecommunities.They includemangroves,floodplains,dryland forests and riverine forests.There is currentlya failure to tap the benefits of indigenous knowledgeabouttheforestresourcesandtheirmanagementwithinTana Delta.

There is a need to increase the coverage of CFAsthroughouttheentireDeltaandtopickupthespecialcharacteristics of riverine forests (Tarasaa CFA coversan area of dryland forest). In Tana Delta, there are


different forests including riverine forests, drylandforests,floodplainandmangroves,whichareimportanthabitatsforwildlifeandasourceof livelihoodtomanycommunitiesintheDelta.Thereishoweverwidespreadallegations of neglect by the government agencymandated with forest protection, KFS, including lackof protection and recognition of indigenous forests.This has therefore rendered many forests ecosystemsdegraded and over-exploited through human inducedpressures.KFShaspaidspecialattentiontothemangroveforests, considered government forests. The riverine and thefloodplain forests patches are critical habitatsfor the rare and endangeredTana River primates.Themanagement of Tana Delta forests depends on the good will of communities and conservation agencies whooftenfindthemselvesatloggerheadswithforestusers.

The Environmental Management and Coordination Act, 1999The Environmental Management and Co-ordinationAct (EMCA) of 1999, in its Part 1, takes into accountintegration of several sectors that deal with naturalresources detailing multi-sectoral approaches tomanagement of environment and natural resources coordinatingallsectorsthathavearoleinenvironmentalmanagement. EMCA recognizes the principle ofsustainable environmental management embracing cultural and social principles traditionally applied bycommunities in Kenya for themanagement of naturalresources and addresses issues relating to protectionof forests (Section48), reforestation and afforestation(EMCA,Section46),energyconservationandplantingoftreesorwoodlots(EMCA,Section49)andconservationof biological diversity (EMCA, Section 50) in tandemwith the Kenya Constitution, 2010, and the NationalLandPolicy,SessionalPaperNo.3of2009.

Section 3(3) of EMCA opens the way for substantialpublicinvolvementinanymajordevelopmentdecisions,whichhaveanenvironmentalbearingwherethepublicshall have recourse to law. In the same section, thepublic shall be listened to in matters to dowith landuse change, which includes conversion of forestlandto other uses and Part IV, Section 58-67 of EMCA 21999,requiresEnvironmental ImpactAssessment (EIA)donebyanindependentbodybeforeanydevelopmentson land are undertaken.The EMCA (Section 125) hasalso made provisions for addressing the environmental offencesincludingtheestablishmentofatribunaltodealwithsuchoffences.

TheEMCAPartV(Section42-57)dealswithprotectionandmanagementofrivers,lakesandwetlands;hilltops,hill sides,mountain areas and forests; conservation ofenergy, biological diversity and biological resourcesamong other natural resources.

Section 4 of EMCA, 1999 recognizes NEMA as acoordinatorthroughtheNationalEnvironmentCouncilthatincludesMinistriesofAgriculture,EconomicPlanningandDevelopment,Energy,Environment,Finance;publicuniversities; specialized research institutions engagedin environmental matters; and NGOs. Within EMCAinstitutional coordination structures are provided for,including section 4(1) that establishes the NationalEnvironmentCouncil(NEC),section7(1)thatestablishesthe National Environment Management Authority(NEMA),NationalEnvironmentTrustFund(Section24(1),National EnvironmentRestorationFund (Section25(1)and a number of national statutory and decentralizedenvironment committees at the provincial and districtlevels thataredirectly linkedtoNEMAat thenationallevelasdetailedinSection29(1)ofEMCA1999.

Thesecoordinationstructuresatnational,provincialanddistrictlevelarecomposedofmulti-sectoralinstitutionsincluding representatives of civil society and localcommunities.Section9(2)(a)describesthecoordinationroleofNEMAonenvironmentalmanagementactivitiesundertaken by lead agencies. However, despite thisenabling coordination policy support forNEMA, thereishardlyanynationalcoordinationofinter-ministerialorinter-sectoralagenciesoutsidemanagementboards.

EMCA has established a number of regulations inorder to sustainably manage the country’s resources.Specific regulations of relevance to the developmentof the Tana Delta LUP/SEA include; EnvironmentalManagement and Co-ordination (Impact Assessmentand Audit Regulations, 2003), the EnvironmentalManagementandCo-ordination(wetlands,riverbanks,lake shores and sea shore management) Regulations,2009, Environmental Management and Co-ordination(Water quality Regulations, 2006) EnvironmentalManagement and Co-ordination (Waste ManagementRegulations,2006)EnvironmentalManagementandCo-ordination(BiodiversityandAccessandBenefitSharingRegulations,2006).

Kenya Vision 2030TheKenyaVision 2030 is the development blue printfor the country which was launched in 2008 to helpthecountrytotransformtoamiddleincomeandnewlyindustrialized country by the year 2030. The visionis anchored on 3 pillars namely political, economicand social pillars. Under the social pillar, the visionappreciates that Kenya’s journey towards prosperityinvolves the building of a just and cohesive society,enjoying equitable social development in a clean andsecureenvironment.TheVisionhasprovidedforflagshipprojectswithintheRiverTanacatchmentandtheTanaDeltasuchasIrrigationfarming,HighGrandFallsDamand Lamu Port. However, these projects may conflict


with sustainable development goals if appropriatemitigationmeasuresarenotprovidedforintheplanningand design particularly on the water infrastructure.Water is a key driver of all the social, economic andecologicalflows (needs) intheDelta, thusplanningforwater isapre-requisitetowardsachievementofVision2030goalsinthecontextoftheDelta.

Other Relevant Policies and Legislative FrameworksThe County Government Act, 2012 tasks the countygovernments topreparecountyplans.Article102(1)oftheActempowerstheCountyGovernmenttoplanforthecountyandfurtherstatesthatnopublicfundsshallbeappropriatedoutside aplanning frameworkdevelopedby theCounty ExecutiveCommittee and approved bytheCountyAssembly.Thecountyplanning frameworkshallintegrateeconomic,physical,social,environmentalandspatialplanning.

The Physical Planning Act mandates the Director of Planning to prepare various types of physicaldevelopment plans (regional and local) which providethephysicaldevelopmentframeworkforaffectedareas.Section 29 of theAct empowers Local Authorities toprohibit or control the use and development of land and buildings in the interest of proper and orderlydevelopment of an area. Section 36 stipulates therequirementforconductingofanEnvironmentalImpactAssessment foranydevelopment that is likely tohaveinjurious effects to the environment or is particularlylarge in scale.

The Agriculture Act, Cap 318, Section 48 promotes soil and water conservation and prevents the destructionof vegetation giving the Agriculture Minister powersto make rules for land preservation by prohibiting,regulatingorcontrollingclearingoflandforcultivation;grazing or watering of livestock; firing, clearing ordestructionofvegetation.

The Energy Policy Sessional Paper No. 4 of 2004 recognizes at both the vision and the mission of thepolicytheprovisionofenergyserviceswhileprotectingthe environment including correcting the supply-demandimbalanceonbiomassenergyresultingintheirunsustainableharvestinganddegradationofecosystemsand catchment areas.

Section 103 (2) of the Energy Act, 2006, empowersthe Minister to promote the development and use of renewableenergytoincludepromotionoftheuseoffastmaturingtreesforenergyproductionincludingbiofuelsandtheestablishmentofcommercialwoodlotsincludingperi-urbanplantations.

The National Museums and Heritage Act, 2006 sets asideaprotectedareawheretheMinisterinchargecanprohibit, restrict access to, or development of, or use foragricultureorlivestock,oranyotheractivitythatisliable to damage as monument or archaeological object. However,thisActdefinesaprotectedareaasasiteonwhich a buriedmonument or object of archaeologicalinterest exists, and the adjoining landwhich has beendeclared by the Minister to be protected area. Thisdefinition does not adequately cover managementof forest resources explainingwhymost of the Kayas(sacred forest patches at theKenya coast) establishedunderthislawhavebeenunderthreatfromcultivation,charcoal burning and mining.

The National Environment Policy, 2013, gives prominence to fragile ecosystems such as the TanaDelta and promotes the wise-use and sustainableutilizationoftheresources.Thepolicyhassetinmotionpractices towards sound environmental managementthrough public participation and benefit sharingapproaches. Environmental management is currentlyvestedondifferentinstitutionsposingthechallengeofcoordination and or/overlapping roles and mandateshenceconflicts.

NationalEnvironmentPolicy,2013,providesforsoundenvironmental and natural resource management in line with sustainable development. It highlights theinterlinkages between sustainable natural resourcesmanagement and human development and that improving humanwellbeingisvestedonsoundconservationandwise use of the country’s natural capital. Tana Deltahas vast and enormous natural resources including wetlands,marineandforeststhatmustbemanagedina sustainable manner for improved livelihoods of the dependent communities. The National Environmentpolicy(2013)anticipatesadoptionofEcosystemBasedManagement and holistic approaches recognizing theintimate and intrinsic connectivity between upstreamanddownstreamwetlandusers.

Institutional AspectsThereviewofinstitutionsresponsiblefordirectnaturalresources conservation and management showedthat the Ministry of Environment, Water and NaturalResources; Ministry of Sports, Culture and The Arts;MinistryofLands,HousingandUrbanDevelopmentandMinistryofMiningareresponsibleforthemanagementand conservation of natural resources in Kenya. TheMinistryofEnvironment,WaterandNaturalResourceshouses five government agencies: Kenya ForestService, Kenya Wildlife Service, the Kenya ForestryResearch Institute (KEFRI), the National EnvironmentManagementAuthority(NEMA)andtheDepartmentforResource Surveys and Remote Sensing (DRSRS)while


theMinistryofSports,CultureandTheArtshousestheNationalMuseumsofKenya.

AreviewoftwentynaturalresourcesconservationandmanagementfunctionsshowedthattheKenyaWildlifeService(KWS) isresponsibleforsixteen(16)mandateswhiletheKenyaForestService(KFS) isresponsibleforthirteen (13) and NEMA is responsible for nine. TheNationalMuseumsofKenya(NMK),KEFRIandDRSRSareresponsibleforseven,sixandfourrespectively.TheKWSandKFSare jointly responsible for:managementand protection of forests; formulation of policies forforest management; preparation and implementationof management plans; management of NationalReserves;managementoflocalandprivatesanctuaries;biodiversity research and monitoring; setting out ofenvironmental offences; provision of measures forenvironmental restoration; establishment of regionalconservationcommittees;collection,storage,archiving,analysis, update and dissemination of geo-spatial dataonnaturalresources;promotionofrationalwildlifeandforestry resources utilization; promotion of educationandenvironmentalawarenessandsettingupproceduresfor natural resources planning.

Inter-government Agency CollaborationTheForestsAct2005establishestheKFSandtheWildlifeConservationandManagementActof2013,establishesKWS.Section7(j)oftheForestsAct2005,mandatestheForest Board to developmodalities and guidelines forjointmanagementofforestsbetweentheService,localauthorities, forest communities, government agenciesandtheprivatesectorandsection36empowerstheKFSdirectortoenterintoanagreementwithanypersonstomanagetheforestsjointly.LiketheForestsActandtheWildlifeAct,thewaterpolicy,theWaterAct,2002,theAgriculture, Fisheries and Food Authority Act, 2013,theNationalMuseumsandHeritageAct,2006,andtheCounty Governments (amendment) Act, 2013 obligethe Water Resources Management Authority underMinistryofWater,theNationalMuseumsofKenyaandthelocalauthoritiestocollaborateinnaturalresourcesmanagementincludingfinance,localauthorities,forestsandwildlife,fisheries,regionaldevelopmentauthorities,andNGOsintheirmanagementboards.

TheNationalLandPolicy,2009providesforsettingupofthreekeylandmanagementinstitutions:theNationalLandCommission (NLC), theDistrict LandBoards andCommunity Land Boards whose composition includedemocratically elected community representatives andwillhavethemandateofpromotingequitableaccesstoland,conservationofculturalsites,protectingminorityland rights and redressing historical injustices. Thecommunity Land Boards are mandated to manage,document and regulate all transactions of community

lands—whichshouldincludeforests.TheseboardshavenotyetbeenestablishedmakingthegoodNationalLandPolicyserveasjustapaperpackandanacademicexercise.Section6oftheEnergyAct,2006,providesforpowersof the commission that include formulating, enforcingandreviewingenvironmental,health,safetyandqualitystandards for the energy sector, in coordination withother statutory authorities. The Act’s recognition ofothersectorsissuperficialrecognizingEMCA1999butwithminimumreferencetoforestsandtheirresources.

International and Regional Policy Context:

Multi-lateral Treaties and AgreementsArticle2sub-article6oftheKenyaConstitution2010states that ‘any treatyor convention ratifiedbyKenyashallformpartofthelawofKenyaundertheconstitution’implyingthatitisnowpossibleforanyaggrievedpartyto sue any violation or infringement of environmentalright based on an international treaty or conventionthatKenyaispartyto.Kenyaisasignatorytoanumberof international treaties and conventions touching onenvironment, socio-economic development, povertyalleviation,foodsecurity,amongothers.

Millennium Development GoalsThe Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) are eight international development goals that all 193 UnitedNationsmembercountriesandatleast23internationalorganizations ratified and agreed to achieve by 2015.Two goals are critical to land use planning: Goal 1-eradication of extreme hunger and poverty and Goal7-ensureenvironmentalsustainability.

Targets inthegoaloferadicatingextremepovertyandhungerareto:halvetheproportionofpopulationlivingonlessthanonedollaradayandthosewhosufferfromhunger, and achievement of decent employment forwomen,men,andyoungpeople.

The goal of ensuring environmentally sustainabletargets are to: integrate the principles of sustainable development in thecountry’spoliciesandprograms inorder to reverse loss of environmental resources and reduce biodiversity loss and halve the proportion ofpeoplewithoutaccesstosafedrinkingwaterandbasicsanitation.

Ramsar Convention 1971TheRamsarConvention(1971)istheintergovernmentaltreatthatspecificallyaddressessustainablemanagementof wetlands. Tana Delta is Kenya’s sixth Ramsarsite, having been designated in October 2012. The Ramsar conventioncalls for sustainableutilizationandmanagementof thedeltaicwetland resources throughthe wise-use principle which can be realized through


preparation of an integrated land use frameworks.This principle allows for careful use and sustainablemanagement of wetland resources for improvedcommunitylivelihoodsandbiodiversityconservation.

Theconventionlaysalotofemphasisonwetlandswise-useandpromotessustainablepracticesandmanagementofwetlands.KenyaratifiedthisConventionin1990andsince then enlisted six (6) wetlands as Ramsar sites-wetlands of international importance, mainly the riftvalley lakes.They includeLakeNakuru, L.Naivasha, L.Baringo,LBogoria,LElementaitaandthenewestinthelist is Tana Delta Wetland.

TheConventionprovidesabroaddefinitionofwetlandsas “Areas of marsh, fen, peat land or water, whethernaturalorartificial,permanentortemporary,withwaterthatisstaticorflowing,fresh,brackishorsalty,includingareas of marine water, the depth of which does notexceedsixmetres.Inadditionwetlandsmayincorporateriparian and coastal zones adjacent to wetlands, andislands or bodies of marine water deeper than sixmetres.”This poses a serious challenge to contractingparties thatdonothave for example certainwetlandsdescribedthereunto.Thustheconventionhasprovidedroom for localized and contextualized definition forcontracting parties. This is because decision-makingonwetlandsmanagement is strictly a national activitythatisaffectedbythenationalgoal-settingbutalsobyinternationalconventions.

Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD)Of strong relevance to the Ramsar Convention is theConvention on Biological Diversity (CBD), which actsverymuchasanoverarchingstructure, towhichotherconventions with their own more precise focus, canandmustrelateandcontribute.Theworldcommunity’sgrowing commitment to sustainable development hasinspired this convention. It represents a dramatic stepforward in the conservation of biological diversitymuch of which is derived and supported by wetlandecosystems including Tana Delta, the sustainable useof its components, and the fair and equitable sharing of benefitsarisingfromtheuseofgeneticresources.

The Convention on Biological Diversity requiresParties to use EIA effectively to avoid or minimizesignificantadverseimpactsonbiodiversity;itintroducesStrategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) to assess environmental implications of policies and programparticularlyforthosewithmajorimplicationsfornaturalresource use, for example, agriculture/ irrigation andotherlandusechanges.WetlandsbiodiversityisheavilyrecognizedbythisConvention.

TheConventionalsoledtoformationoftheCartagenaProtocol on Biosafety of 1999 namely “The Cartagena Protocol on Biosafety to the Convention on Biological Diversity”.This is an international treaty governing themovementsofLivingModifiedOrganismsresultingfrommodernbiotechnologyfromonecountrytoanother. Itwasadoptedon29thJanuary2000asasupplementaryagreement to the Convention on Biological Diversityand entered into force on 29th January 2000. Kenyasigned the protocol on 15thMay 2000; ratified it on24thJanuary2002andbecomeapartymemberon11th September 2003.

TanaDeltaisaKeyBiodiversityArea(KBA),anImportantBirdArea(IBA)andhometomanybiodiversityelementsincludingtheIUCNred-listedonessuchasthecriticallyendangered Tana Crested Mangabey, Cercocebus galeritus galeritus,which is endemic to theLowerTanaRiver forests and the endangered Basra Reed-Wabler(Acrocephalus griseldis) among others.

The Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species (CITES)Kenya signed the Convention on International Tradein Endangered Species (CITES) in 1999 and regulatestrade in endangered species of wild fauna and flora.Kenya isenormouslyrich inbiodiversity.However lossof biodiversity through destruction of habitats andpoachingandclimatechangeposearealthreatnotonlyto revenue and employment but also livelihoods andsourceoffoodforsomecommunities.TanaDeltaisnotimmunetolossofbiodiversity.Poachinganddestructionof habitats are prevalent in the delta.

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)The United Nations Framework Convention onClimate Change (UNFCCC), 1992 requires partiesto take climate change considerations into account,to the extent feasible. It emphasizes on the need ofincorporating the consideration in relevant social,economicandenvironmentalpolicies,plansandactions,andencouragetheemploymentofappropriatemethods,forexample impactassessments tobe formulatedanddeterminednationally,withaviewofminimizingadverseeffects on the economy, public health and the qualityof the environment. Deltaic wetlands play significantroles inmicro-climate enhancement and act as strongwaterstoragesystemsduringdry-season.Itisthereforeimperativetoaddressandinstitutemeasurestomitigateand/oradapttotheclimaticscenariosintheTanaDelta.ThisframeworkisthereforetriggeredastheimpactsofclimatechangeareevidencedwithinthedeltaandKenyaas a whole. The Government has developed National


Climate Change Response Strategy (NCCRS, 2010) aswellasanActionPlanaimedatreducingtheimpactsofclimate change and maximising opportunities broughtbyclimatechange.Deltaicenvironmentsandwetlandsin general constitute some of the most vulnerableecosystemstoclimatechangeandvariabilitymanifestedthroughextremedroughtsandflooding,sedimentationandlossofbiodiversity.

Nairobi Convention and the Africa-Eurasian Water Bird agreement (AEWA)At the regional scale, the African-Eurasian WaterBird Agreement (AEWA) developed in 1993 fromdeliberationsoftheBonnConvectionwhichhelditsfirstconsultativemeetingofrangestatesofAfrican-EurasianWaterbirdAgreement(AEWA)inNairobiinJune1994,is another agreement that offers a good opportunityfor the management and conservation of Tana Deltaand associated wetlands biodiversity resources. Thisagreementistriggeredbythefactthatthereareseveralmigratory water birds from Europe that use the TanaDelta as a wintering site. The Delta holds significant

proportionsofglobally threatenedmigrantwaterbirdsincludingMadagascarPratincoleGlareolaocularis.Thevast numbers of migratory and resident waterbirdsare particularly dependent on the seasonally floodedgrasslandsandBorassusPalmsavannahthatcoversome70,000haintheheartoftheTanaRiverDelta.

The Kenyan Government became a signatory to theNairobiConventionon30thMay1996.TheGovernmenthas adopted measures to implement the Conventionand its Emergency, Protected Areas and Land BasedSources of pollution Protocols. Currently, Kenya isactively involved in the development process for theIntegratedCoastalZoneManagement (ICZM)Protocolto the Nairobi Convention. In this case, with supportfrom the Government, Nairobi Convention Secretariatand partners, an integrated coastal zonemanagement(ICZM) framework together with an action Plan hasbeen developed for the Kenya coastal zone towhichTana ispartof.The ICZMprovides for thesustainablemanagementofmarineandcoastalresourceswithintheWestern Indian Ocean (WIO) region.


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