system view of climate change and water resources...

13th International Riversymposium NHR ISince 1935

System view of Climate Change and Water resources management in a small

i b iriver basin

WANG Xiaojun, ZHANG Jianyun, LIU Jiufu

Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute

October, 2010, Perth

NHR ISince 193513th International Riversymposium

Outlines

1. Water Resource challenges

2. System view for water management2. System view for water management

3. Case study: Tuwei River 3. Case study: Tuwei River

4. Conclusions and Discussion 4. Conclusions and Discussion

1. Water Resource challenges NHR ISince 1935

Basic Natural Resources and Economic Resources

Controlling Factor of Eco-Environment

K S t d S f d f S iKey Support and Safeguard of Socio-Economic Development

Food, Petroleum and Water constitute three major t t istrategic resources.

NHR ISince 19351. Water Resource challenges

Managing floods, solving water shortage and i i i limproving water environment are long-term challenges.

Water ShortageWater Shortage

Demand

Supply


0. 6

0. 4

Factors influence demand0. 4

0. 2

0

（IPCC，2001）

-0. 2

-0. 4

-0. 6 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Climate change

6.4

1

( IPCC AR4, 2007 )

.1


Water supply as a crucial factor for survival and economic de elopment so pro iding adeq ate atereconomic development, so providing adequate water supply is a serious problem for governments throughout the world .

Lesotho Highlands Water Project in SA National Water Carrier in Israel


Each of them seemed to have solved problem for a period of time WSM has been benefited lotsfor a period of time, WSM has been benefited lots of the areas around world tremendously during the 20th Century.

This supply driven approach seem more andThis supply driven approach seem more and more complex today.


Continuing to expand infrastructure and develop new water sources has become increasingly expensive;

Development projects (dams and diversions) destroy aquatic and land habitat;

WSM is ultimately unsustainable, both economically and environmentally .y

Great Man Made River in Libya Drought in Austria


Outlines

1. Water Resource challenges1. Water Resource challenges




PrecipitationEvaporation

ReservoirSurface water

Soil water

GroundwaterDomestic water demandDomestic water demand

Transpiration Water supplyWater supply

I d t t d dI d t t d d

Groundwater

Industry water demandIndustry water demand

water consumptionwater consumption

EvaporationSewageSewage

water consumptionwater consumptionwater consumptionwater consumption

Ecological Ecological water water d dd d

SewageSewageGroundwaterGroundwater

Groundwater abstractionGroundwater abstraction

Runoff demanddemandRainwater Rainwater harvestingharvesting

NHR ISince 1935

2. System view for water management

Overall conceptual diagrams for Water resources planning and management

NHR ISince 1935


Domestic Water DemandDomestic Water Demand+

+Production Water Demand

Total Water Demand+Economic Development+

+-

-

Water Price+

Ecology Water Demand+

Water Shortage RateWater Supply-

+

Causal Loop Diagram of the basic model for TuweiSD

NHR ISince 1935


Flow diagrams for t

UP

RP

UR

QU

UDWD

QUE

UEWD

<Time>

<Time>

TQU

TPCHP

CRP

TQUETUR

TE GTEGRTE

PE GPE<Time>MEPE

PMEPE

ET SHNQM

NQWNQR

KCM

KCW

KCR

QM

QCDWD

water resources management in Tuwei River

RDWD

DWD

RWSGRWS

GRRWS

CRMAMWD

BFPUWD

NR

QRTime

TQR

MACMA

GPE

GRPEWEPE

REPE

PREPE

PWEPEQW

QRI

WACWA WWD

RCCDWD

River

GWS

DWDDWS GDWS

GRDWS

CRRA

IRWDRWD

PWS GPWS

GRPWSSWS

EWD

IEWD

QVFWD

RACRA

<Time>

VFACVFA

TQVFWD

TQFOWD

CRWA

TDWD

QCIWD

CIWD

TWS GGWS

GRGWSCRVFA

VFWD

OWS GOWS

CRFOA

QFOWD

FOWDQGWDAWD

TWD

DW

<Time>FOA

CFOA

TQFOWD

TQGWD

GACGA

<Time>

TWTWT

TIIWD

CRBAA

BAWD

AHWD

GROWS

FAFWD

GWD

PWD

WSR

DFA

GDFA

GRDFA

OEWD

TW

QBAWD

TQSAWD

<Time>

TQGWDCRGA

BAACBAA

TQBAWDQSAWDSAA QDFWD

DFWD

<Time>

ENP

ERPREP

WP

S

CRSAA SAWD

GRFIPA

FIWDTQFIWD

IO

IWD

P

CDCMCP

IW

TQSAWDCSAA

QFIWDFIPA

GFIPA

GDP QTIWDTPIOPIO

TQDFWD

T

GRGDP

CO

T

TIOQIWD

TIWDCDCM

CWT

GR1GDP

GGDP <Time>

TQIWD

TPIT

PIT

PIO

GRWI WIGWI

<Time>

0t t

TL e v e ls R a te s d t= ∫

NHR ISince 1935


TuweiSD Includes 139 parameters

Three major subsystems

Strategic planning period ranges from 1980 to 2030Strategic planning period ranges from 1980 to 2030

Developed within Vensim Personal Learning

Edition (PLE)

Boundary is the total administrative area of Yulin

itcity.

NHR ISince 1935


UR QUE<Time>TUR

UP

UR

UEWD

<Time>

TPCHP

TQUE

TUR

1RP

QU

UDWDQR

<Time>

TQUCRP

TQR

1

RDWD

E t l E i t b t P l ti thExternal Environment subsystem –Population growth

NHR ISince 1935


IO

GDPGGDP

TPITTPIO

GWI

TIO QIWD

IWD

GR1GDP<Time>

PIO1

GRGDPTIWD

TQIWDQTIWD

PIT

WSR

External Environment subsystem –Economic development

NHR ISince 1935


REPE PREPESH NQR

KCRQRI

TEGTE

CRTE

PE GPEMEPE

PMEPE

ET

SH

NQM

NQR

QM<Time> <Time>

1

NR

CRTEGRPE

WEPEPWEPEKCM

KCW

QW

RCCDWD

QCIWD

CIWD

1

PUWD

NQWQW

QCDWD

CIWD

EWDBFPUWDTDWDEWD

E t l E i t b t Cli t hExternal Environment subsystem –Climate change

NHR ISince 1935


MWD RWD

QR

MACMA

QW QM QRI

RA

CRA CRRA

<Time>

UPRP

QUUDWD

RDWD

DWD

CRMA

IRWD

UEWD

<Time>TQVFWD

CRWA

WACWA

WWD

QCDWDCDWD

CRRA

CRVFAVFWD

QFOWD

DFAGDFA GRDFA

QUEOEWD

QVFWD

<Time>

VFACVFA

FOACFOA

TQFOWD

DFWD<Time>

TDWD

FAFWD

CRFOAFOWD

QGWDPWD

AWD EWD

TWD

IEWD

BF

PUWD

DWCFOA

TQGWD

GACGA

QDFWD TQDFWDTDWD

WP

1

CRBAA

BAWD

AHWD

GWD

TIO

IWD

TIWDWSR

TW

IWQBAWD<Time>

CRGA

BAACBAA

TQBAWD CIWD

TIIWD

CRSAA SAWD

FIWD

TQFIWDIO

QIWDIWD

TQSAWD

QSAWDSAACSAA

QFIWD

FIPAGFIPA

GRFIPA

Water Demand subsystem

NHR ISince 1935


DWS GDWS

GRDWS

RWSGRWS

TWS

GRRWS PWS GPWS

GRPWS

SWS

TWTGWS 1

GRPWS

OWS

<Time>

TWTWT

GRGWS

GGWS

OWS GOWS

GROWS

W S l b

REPWSR P ENP

Water Supply subsystem

NHR ISince 1935


TWD

TWS

REP

WP

ENPERP

REP

SP

TW

1

CO

T

CD

CM

CP

CWT<Time>

GRWI WIGWI

<GDP>

Water price subsystem


Outlines





NHR ISince 19353. Case study: Tuwei River3. Case study: Tuwei River

Latitude: 38Latitude: 38°°10′10′～～3939°°10′N10′NLatitude: 38Latitude: 38 10′10′～～3939 10′N 10′N

Longitude: 109Longitude: 109°°45′45′～～110110°°35′ E 35′ E

Sketch map of the Study areaDrainage area :3,294 kmDrainage area :3,294 km2


60000

50000

60000

30000

40000

20000

30000

0

10000

01950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Moving average curves of annual runoff at Gaojiachuan station


5000

4000

2000

3000

1000

2000

0

January March May July NovemberSeptemberJanuary y J y Sep e be

Runoff at Gaojiachuan station


Simulated values and actual value of the main variables

2000 2005

Simulated values and actual value of the main variables

Variables

2000 2005

Actual Simulated Relative Actual Simulated Relative

value value error value value error

Total P l ti 22.53 21.33 -5.33 23.13 23.12 -0.04Population 22.53 21.33 5.33 23.13 23.12 0.04

Urban Population 1.77 1.69 -4.52 2.21 2.22 0.45 p

Surface Water S l

2666 2476 -7.13 2706 2558 -5.47 Supply


12 0

12. 5

13. 0

11 0

11. 5

12. 0

B1 Scenario

10. 0

10. 5

11. 0 B1 Scenario

A2 Scenario

9. 0

9. 5

10. 0A1B Scenario

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

T t h i th f t f T i RiTemperature changes in the future of Tuwei River


600

500

600

300

400B1 Scenario

200

300A2 Scenario

A1B S i

0

100A1B Scenario

P i it ti h i th f t f T i Ri

01980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Precipitation changes in the future of Tuwei River


600000 0.9

400000

500000

nt( ￥

)

0 6

0.7

0.8

ate

GDP development

Water shortage rate

300000

400000

deve

lopm

en

0.4

0.5

0.6

r sho

rtage

ra

100000

200000

GD

P d

0.1

0.2

0.3

Wat

er

0

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030Year

0

0.1

Economic development and water shortage rate of the

Year

p gTuwei River under B1 scenario


1600018000

20000

4 m3 )

0.7

0.8

0.9

e

Total water supply

Water shortage rate

10000

1200014000

er su

pply

(104

0.4

0.5

0.6

shor

tage

rat

20004000

60008000

Tota

l wat

e

0 1

0.2

0.3

0.4

Wat

er s

0

2000

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030Year

0

0.1

W h d diff i

Year

Water shortage rate under different scenario


45000 Water demand management under B1 scenario

35000

40000

104 m

3 )

Water demand management under A1B scenario

Water demand management under A2 scenario

20000

25000

30000

ter d

eman

d( Water supply management under B1 scenario

Water supply management under A1B scenario

5000

10000

15000

Tota

l wat Water supply management under A2 scenario

0

5000

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

W d d d diff i

Year

Water demand under different management strategies


As to Tuwei River, the main objectives are: I h (2005 2010) h h iIn short-term(2005-2010), through necessary economic

measures to promote efficient use of water resources in order to achieve the maximization of economic benefits from minimize water resource;

In long-term(2010-2020), WDM programme will pay more attention to quality requirements, and quality become the main target, through optimization between economic and ecology, and will realize a balance between the competing needs and desires of human social and economic systems and the integrity of aquatic ecosystems, and finally achieve the human-water harmony in Tuwei River.


LegislationLegislation is the guarantee for WDM programme, and all

the policies, regulations should be consistent with legislation


Metering and leakages reductionW t t i i it f th f i i iWater metering, as a prerequisite for the use of pricing is essential for a successful WDM programme, and it aims at i i i i i d h bimproving existing structures in order to have a better control on water demand.


Wastewater reuseWastewater reuse contributes to WDM mainly in enhances the efficiency of a water supply system by supplying reused water to water users which otherwise would have use fresh water form the distribution system and lot of cases demonstrate thatform the distribution system, and lot of cases demonstrate that reuse and recycling of wastewater can make a significant contribution to WDM.


Water Allocation between SectorsAs the socio-economic system has self-adapting functions, water scarce regions will adjust their socio-economic structures to save water, this means re-allocation of water from sectors with lower added value to sectors with a higherfrom sectors with lower added value to sectors with a higher added value. Such re-allocation will obviously be advantageous to society as a whole.g y

IndustryInvestment forInvestment forInvestment for Investment for save irrigation save irrigation

water usewater use

IrrigationRe-allocation between

sectors


Economic methodsEconomic methods can be implemented for demand reduction,Economic methods can be implemented for demand reduction, economic methods include pricing mechanisms, incentives and penalties. Water price is a fundamental economic tool to influence water demand.

1400 3.00Wat er demand

800

1000

1200

nd（

m3 ）

2.00

2.50

e(￥

/m3 )Wat er pr i ce

400

600

800

Wat

er d

eman

0 50

1.00

1.50

Wat

er p

rice

0

200

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

W

0.00

0.50

Year

Water price and water demand in Yulin city


Public awarenessThrough television, radio, newspapers, internet and other

media to give up water is inexhaustible resources misconceptions d bli h i li i d h i ifiand establish water resources is limited, propagate the significance

of sustainable utilization of water resources.


Outlines




4. Conclusions and Discussion

4 Conclusions and discussion4 Conclusions and discussion NHR ISince 1935

Traditional way for water management ultimatelyunsustainable for both economic and environmentalunsustainable for both economic and environmentalreasons.

System Dynamics (SD) provides a feedback-oriented modelling framework for learning andg gcommunicating about the inherent complexity of water

I h b id l li d imanagement. It has been widely applied in manyenvironmental problems, including water management .p g g

4 Conclusions and discussion4 Conclusions and discussion NHR ISince 1935

Simulation results show that the current management regimeSimulation results show that the current management regime

cannot maintain the socio-economic and ecological sustainability

in the region. Although additional infrastructure can cover the

water deficit in the short period, it cannot cope with thep , p

increasing irrigation and domestic requirements. Instead, results

indicate that a portfolio of demand management instruments

and conservation measures is the most sustainable strategy forgy

maintaining the economic and ecological status of the region

under the changing climate.

Th k !Thank you!yDr WANG XiaojunDr WANG Xiaojun

Tel: 86-13645153003Tel: 86 13645153003

Fax: 86-025-85828555Fax: 86 025 85828555

E-mail: [email protected]@y

system view of climate change and water resources...

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