Iceberg Water

Policymaking:Is the Public Included?

August/September, 1979Price, $2.00

SYNTHETICFUELS

what we have and what~ we need

· Do you make these10common typewriter

mistaKes?

Most people maketheir fair share of typ-ing mistakes. But thebiggest mistake youcan make is buying thewrong typewriter in thefirst place. There are ten thingsyou should check out. They can helpyou avoid making these ten typewritermistakes.

Check out the correction system. Thereare several typewriter correction systems, but theydon't all work equally well.

This Smith-Corona" electric portable has a uniquecartridge ribbon and correction system that lets youchange ribbons in seconds without touching the rib-bon. It also lets you correct typing errors quickly,neatly and easily.

Test the feel. Are the slope and height of the key-board comfortable? The size and shape of the keys?

While you're about it, compare the feel of aSmith-Corona electric typewriter against others-wewelcome head-on comparison.

Try the touch. A responsive touch makes for eas-ier typing. You want a touch that is prompt, easy anddependable. For instance, note how smoothly theSmith-Corona performs functions such as carriagereturn and back -space.

Listen to the sound. Believe it or not, a type-writer has a sound of its own. If it sounds tinny,beware. It may indicate that the typewriter's con-struction is too light.

Note the look of the type. Lines and individualletters should be straight. The impression should becrisp, clean and even. The print quality should notvary over the page.

Consider the overalldesign. You want a type-

writer that looks contem-porary but not eccentric.

Smith-Corona, for instance,is an example of classic good

design you'll live happilywith for years.

Look at theC rtrid carrying case. Does

a l ge it have double walls forair-cushioned protection? Sturdy latches and hinges?The case for this typewriter does.

Compare prices. A typewriter that sells for a lotless than others might be a lot less typewriter. Whereprice difference is minimal, you probably should gofor the one that tests best.

Ask who makes it.Smith-Corona makes everytypewriter that bears its name-which is not true ofmost other brands.

So consider the maker's reputation. A companywith a solid reputation will still be around tomorrowand in the future to give your typewriter necessaryservice and maintenance.

Try the Smith-Corona carbon film ribbon.We offer a re-usable nylon fabric ribbon, good forordinary typing jobs. This is the only kind most port-ables offer. But we also offer carbon film ribbon in fivecolors. It's the same kind of ribbon that the mostexpensive office typewriters use, and it's perfect forjobs requiring a crisp professional look such as termpapers or a resume.

Once you've made these ten typewriter tests, wethink you'll know why more people prefer Smith-Corona electric portable typewriters than all otherbrands combined.

Edited at the MassachusettsInstitute of TechnologyVolume 81, Number 8August/September, 1979 Technology Review

FEATURES 24Synthetic Fuels at the CrossroadsBy Charles A. Stokes

A variety of high-energy-contentmaterials can be produced from coaland oil shale. Are we willing to acceptthe costs?

36Water for a Synthetic Fuels IndustryBy Ronald F. Probstein

The constraint may be far lesslimiting than generally supposed.

44Energy, Food, and the ConsumerBy Mary Rawitscher and Jean Mayer

Eat well, be healthy, and save energy.

54Public Participation in TechnologicalDecisions: Reality or GrandUlusion?By Dorothy Nelkin andMichael Pollak

Saving Energy on Foodpage 44Cover painting byJon Mcintosh

Who speaks for the people? And wholistens?

66 Antarctic ice may someday supplyThe Iceberg Cometh Australians with water. But gettingBy W. F. Weeks and Malcolm Mellor there is half the fun.

TREND OF AFFAIRS 79Health

83Last Line

76Energy

80War andTechnology

COLUMNS 8Society:Kenneth E. Boulding

We are comfortably secure in therealm of the familiar, but newproblems require "far out" solutions.

10Technology and Science:Robert C. Cowen

In asking about life elsewhere in theuniverse, we are asking profoundquestions about ourselves.

13Books and Comment

The War Against the Automobile.Reviewed by Charles A. Lave

16Special Report:Arcosanti: A New Dream Out Onthe DesertGregory Dennis

Persistent believers in a "New Age"technology are alive and well inArizona.

31News Analysis:The Current Politics of "Synfuels"Philip Shabecoff

Upcoming political decisions - byofficeholders and voters - willdetermine the future of synthetic fuelsdevelopment.

DEPARTMENTS 4Letters

85T ech-Crosric

86M.I. T. Reporter

3First Line

Alumni Travel Program, . 1979-1980

For 1979, an expanded program of itineraries isoffered, including New Guinea and a widerchoice of programs in East Africa and India.Additional itineraries are also in the planningstage, including the Galapagos, southern India,the People's Republic of China and other areas.

The travel program is a special one for alumni ofHarvard, Yale, Princeton, M.I.T., Cornell,Dartmouth, Univ, of Pennsylvania and certainother distinguished universities and for membersof their families. Designed for educated and in-telligent travelers, it is planned for persons whomight normally prefer to travel independently,visiting distant lands and regions where it is ad-

vantageous to travel as a group. The programsavoid the excessive regimentation normallyassociated with group travel, and are planned toinclude generous amounts of leisure time in thecourse of travel to allow for individual interests.

REALMS OF ANTIQUITY: Journeys intothe past to explore the history and civilization ofthe ancient world. One itinerary of 17 days-VALLEY OF THE NILE-offers a comprehensiveand authoritative survey of ancient Egypt. Start-ing with the British Museum and the RosettaStone, it visits the great monuments of ancientEgypt stretching along the Nile Valley fromMemphis and Cairo to Abu Simbel near theborder of the Sudan, including a cruise on the Nilefrom Luxor to Aswan. A seconditinerary-AEGEAN ADVENTURE-covers thearcheological treasures of classical antiquity in thelands of the Aegean in a journey of 23 days. It in-cludes not only the historic sites of ancient Greecebut also a rare view of ancient cities in AsiaMinor, including the ruins of Troy, and in addi-tion includes a cruise through the Aegean to Creteand other Aegean isles. A third itinerary-theMEDITERRANEAN ODYSSEY-is a 22-dayjourney which follows the spread of classicalantiquity into the western Mediterranean: thesplendid ruins of the classical Greek cities of Sicily,the historic ruins of Carthage, ancient Romancities in North Africa, and the fortress cities of

medieval Crusaders on the rocky isle of Malta.

2 Technology Review, August/September, 1979

EAST AFRICA: A distinctive program ofsafaris, ranging in length from 16 ton days, tothe great game-viewing areas of Kenya and Tan-zania and to the beautiful islands of theSeychelles. Led by experts on East Africanwildlife, the itineraries are carefully planned andcomprehensive, offering an unusually completeopportunity to see and photograph the wildlifeof Africa.

THE SOUTH PACIFIC and EXPEDI-TION TO NEW GUINEA: The island conti-nent of Australia and the islands of New Zealandare covered by theSOUTH PACIFIC, 28 days,unfolding a world of Maori villages, boilinggeysers, fiords and snow-capped mountains, skiplane flights over glacier snows, jet boat rides,sheep ranches, penguins, the Australian "Out-back," historic convict settlements and the GreatBarrier Reef. The primitive and beautiful worldlying slightly to the north is seen in the 24-dayEXPEDITION TO NEW GUINEA, a rare glimpseinto a vanishing world of Stone Age tribes andcustoms. Includes the famous Highlands of NewGuinea, with Sing Sings and tribal cultural per-formances, and the remote villages of the SepikRiver and the vast Sepik Plain, as well as theNorth Coast at Madang and Wewak and thebeautiful volcanic island of New Britain. Forboth tours, optional post-tour visits can be madeto other islands of the southern Pacific, such asFiji and Tahiti.

CENTRAL ASIA AND THE HlMA-LAYAS: A choice of 23 or 29-day itineraries ex-ploring the vast historic and cultural heritage ofIndia, the untamed Northwest Frontier region ofPakistan and the remote mountain kingdom ofNepal. Includes the famed Khyber Pass, impos-ing Moghul forts, sculptured temples, lavishpalaces, formal gardens, the teeming banks of theGanges, snow-capped peaks of the Himalayasalong the roof of the world, picturesque citiesand villages, the splendor of the Taj Mahal, andhotels which once were palaces of maharajas.

THE FAR EAST: Two itineraries which of-fer a fascinating insight into the lands and islandsof the East. THE ORIENT, 29 days, is a classictour of ancient and modern Japan, with specialemphasis on the cultural treasures of Kyoto, andincludes as well the important cities of SoutheastAsia, from Singapore and Hong Kong to thetemples and palaces of Bangkok and the island ofBali. A different and unusual perspective is of-fered in BEYOND THE JAVA SEA, 34 days, ajourney through the tropics of the Far East fromManila and the island fortress of Corregidor toheadhunter villages in the jungle of Borneo, theancient civilizations of Ceylon, Barak tribalvillages in Sumatra, the tropical island of Penang,and ancient temples in Java and Bali.

SOUTH AMERICA: An unusually com-prehensive 28-day journey through the vast con-tinent of South America, with dazzling pre-Columbian gold, ornate colonial churches andpalaces, the ruins of the ancient Inca civilization,snow-capped peaks of the Andes, famed IguassuFalls, the futuristic city of Brasilia, and othersights. Optional post-tour extensions areavailable to Manaus, in the heart of the jungle ofthe Amazon, and to Panama.

Prices rallgefrom $2,215 to $4,175 from U.S. pointsof departure. A ir travel is011 regularly scheduledflights of major airlines, utilizillg reducedfares whichsave as much as $600.00 and more over normal fares.Fully descriptive brochures are available,settino forththe itineraries ill detail and listing departure dares,hotels, tour rates, and other informatioll. For fulldetailsCOil tact:

ALUMNI FUGHTS ABROADDept. TRl

White Plains PlazaOne North Broadway

White Plains, New York 10601

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PublisherJames A. Hester,Jr.Editor-in-ChiefJohn I. Mattill

Managing EditorStevenJ. Marcus

Staff EditorsLeonard A. PhillipsSusanne FaircloughSandra KnightMarjorie LyonLawrenceJ. Appleman

Contributing EditorMichael Feirtag

Design DirectorNancyC. PokrossProduction and Design ManagerKathleen B. Sayre

Production and Editorial AssistantGunilJa Levenson

Business ManagerPeter D. Gellatly

Circulation and Marketing Ma/1agerEvelyn R. Milardo

Subscription Service ManagerDorothy R. Finnerty

Editorial SecretaryValerie Kiviar

Marketing SecretaryVirginia M. Leavis

Technology Review(ISSN 0040-1692), Reg. U.S. Patent Office,is published eight times each year (in June/July, August!September,October, November, December/January, February,March/April, and May) at the Massachusetts Institute ofTechnology; rwo special editions areprovided for graduate (pp.AI-A40) and undergraduate [pp. AI-A40 and Bl·B24) alumniof M.LT. Entire contents copyright 1979 by the AlumniAs-sociation of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.Technology Review is printed by The Lane Press, Inc., Bur-lington, Vr. Second class postagepaid at Boston, Mass., and atadditional mailing offices. Postmaster, send Form113579 toTechnology Review, M.LT. Room 10·140, Cambridge, Mass.02139.Inquiries regarding editorial contents, subscriptions, and ad-vertising should be addressed to: Technology Review, Room10-140, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge,Mass., 02139. Telephone area code (617) 253-8250. Unsol-icited manuscripts are: welcome, bur no responsibility for'sa fekeepingCan be assumed.Price: $2 per copy. Subscriptions: in the U.S., $15 one year, $24two years, $32 three years. Add $2 per year for Canadian sub-scripnons. Mexico andoverseas $23 one year, $38 two years,$50 three years. Please allow six weeks for changes of addressand give both old and new addresses in all requests. Claims formissing issues lost in transit must be dared within 60 days(domestic) and 90 days (foreign) of issue requested. Back issuesare $2.50 each for U.S.A. and Canada ($3.00 foreign). Reprintsof certain articles are: also available. Address all Back Issue andReprint correspondence to: Reader Service, Technology Re-view, M.LT. Room 10-140, Cambridge, Mass. 02139.Technology Review advertising is represented by The Leader-ship Network: Rebert Sennott, Suire 321,230 Park Ave., NewYork, N.Y. 10017 (212) 682-4500; Larry Benson, LaurenceF.Benson Company, 1411 Peterson Avenue, Park Ridge,Ill.60068 (312) 692-4695; JamesL. Latta, Jr., 1400 North Har-bor Blvd., Fullerton, Calif. 92635 (714) 879-8930. Also byWilliam T. Anderson, Littell-Murray-Barnhill, 1328 Broad-way, New York, N.Y. 10001 (212) 736-1119; and Richard F.Wright, Littell-Murray-Barnhill, 7 Rockwood Road, Natick,Mass., 01760, (617) 653-1568. Jfo'I\\Technology Review is a member of ~

A Substitutable Feast

An American family sits down to enjoy anappetizing and nutritious meal. There isplenty of food to go around, and the am-biance at the table is one of joy, content-ment and well-being. Very nice, but whatis such a scene doing on the cover ofTechnology Review?And why have wesubstituted a fish for a turkey, in whatotherwise looks like an excerpt fromNorman Rockwell's famous painting,"Freedom from Want"?

One reason is that it heralds the in-teresting and informative article("Energy,Food and the Consumer," by MaryRawitscher and Jean Mayer)on page 44.The authors show that significant energyconservation is possible through sensiblechoices in what we eat and how we pre-pare our food. Moreover, such choices donot imply sacrifices or radical changes inlifestyle, and they are even desirable forhealth reasons alone.

But the most important reason for thecover's selection is that it says somethingfundamental about theReview's very ownbeat: technology and its implications. Theultimate purpose of technology, after all,is to improve our lives and to provide theabundance, warmth, happiness and goodhealth - characteristic of America, welike to think - which Norman Rockwellbrought to such symbolic perfection. Sowhat better way to make the point of "nodeprivation, merely a substitution" thanto make such a substitution on our cover?And, as a starting point, what visual idiomcould ever improve upon a sincere rendi-tion of "Freedom from Want?"

We believe our treatment not only re-spects the artist and his work, but respon-sibly extends what it stood for. We hopeour readers will agree. -S.].M.

A Dolphin Story

Six days before our June/July issue wentto press, Robert H. Rines and Howard S.Curtis of the Academy of Applied Scienceannounced that two trained dolphinswould be used this summer in the searchfor the "monster" of rhe Loch Ness. Theirearlier report, which omitted this late de-velopment in their 1979 plans, was al-ready in type and more. But changes werequickly organized, and Charles W. Wyc-koff, the expedition's photographic ex-pert, hastened to us with his sketch of acamera/sonar-carrying dolphin; and sowent into print with "Loch Ness: The BigOne Got Away Again' (June/July, pages14-16).

Alas, we (and the Academy) should

have stood in place.As our June/July issue was being

printed, the dolphins arrived in Hull,Mass., for training and ro become accli-mated to the colder water that awaitedthem in Scotland. Their progress wasslower than had been hoped, and Mr.Wyckoff told Robert Cooke of theBostonGlobe that "we really don't know whenwe're going over there .... The chancesare very great we'll have to wait until nextyear."

Then one of the two dolphins "juststopped eating," and two days later the14-year-old mammal died. An autopsyfailed to reveal a cause of death, but theplans to use dolphins in the Loch Nesswere set aside indefinitely. -].M.

Technology Review, August/September, 1979 3

Letters

Nuclear Insurance Overdue

"Some Institutional Problems of the U.S.uclear Industry," by Montgomery and

Rose (March/April, p. 53), is very good,but it does not go far enough.

The government should insure nuclearinstallations against technological catas-trophe, just as it insures banks againstfinancial collapse, so hapless victims canbe duly compensated. Without such in-surance, it could become necessary tonationalize banks. With such insurance, itshould not become necessary to national-ize nuclear industry. uclear disaster in-surance is overdue already.

The energy problem is a dilemma.It isnecessary to choose the lesser evil whichis nuclear energy when compared to noenergy. You can have cheese withoutholes, but you cannot have technologywithout problems.Kenneth J. EpsteinChicago, Ill.

newenergy

resourcesWATER IN SYNTHETIC FUELPRODUCTION, by Ronald F. Probsteinand Harris Gold. $995. paper

THE WORLD ENERGY BOOK An A-Z.Atlas and Statistical Source Book.edited by David Crabbe and RichardMcBnde. $12.50. paper

THE STRUCTURE OF WORLDENERGY DEMAND, by Robert S.Pindyck. $20.00

ECONOMIC AND ENVIRONMENTALIMPACTS OF A U.S. NUCLEARMORATORIUM 1985-2010, Secondedition. by members of the Institute forEnergy Analysis. edited by Alvin M.Weinberg. $17.50

ELECTRIC POWER IN THE UNITEDSTATES Models and Policy Analysts.by Martin L. Baughman. Paul LJoskow. and Duip P Kamal. $29.95

The MIT PressMassachusetts Institute of TechnologyCambndge. Massachusetts 02142

4 Technology Review, August/September, 1979

Adding Solar to Hot Dry Rocks

The proposal to withdraw geothermalenergy from hot dry rocks ("MiningEarth's Heat: Hot Dry Rock GeothermalEnergy" by Ronald G. Cummings et al,February, pp.58-78) is in a sense incom-plete, since it does not include the use ofsolar energy as a natural supplement. Thiswould be accomplished by heating freshwater in concentrating solar collectorsduring periods of insolation, then pump-ing this water into a large subterranean re-servoir in a suitable formation of hot rock.The stored water would also be heated bysolar energy whenever possibleafterwithdrawal from the reservoir.

It is proposed that a storage volume ofperhaps 1 million gallons of superheatedwater at a temperature reaching, 3000 C.(nearly 6000 F.) be used as a thermal re-servoir for an electric power generatingplant. Because water may be heated underpressure to temperatures greater than3000 C. in concentrating collectors nowavailable from solar hardware manufac-turers, we propose to preheat the waterbefore it goes into hot-rock reservoirs andthen posthear the waterafter it comes outof the thermal storage, it should be possi-ble to maintain an average superheatedwater temperature of about 3000 C.forever in many terrestial locations.

What is suggested in this concept is afurther gain in thermal energy from ourmost useful natural heat source, the sun,using its heat efficiently concentrated sothat water in the hot dry rocks(HDR) con-tinues togain thermal energy rather thanexhausting theHDR heat source over along period of time.

If a heat exchanger is used in the sys-tem, a variety of nonaqueous workingfluids with large, low-temperature vapordensities could be used. A condenser nearthe ocean or other source of cold watermight use this cold water to return the hotgas (after it has driven multistage turbinesin parallel) to its liquid state. Then thiswarmed water could be pumped into solarponds, as shown in the accompanyingdrawing; or used for processing and heat-ing operations in a neighboring commu-nity.

There is no question that this proposedsolar/geothermal power generating plantwould have far greater efficiency thansuch systems as ocean platforms, wherethe useful temperature differential isminute compared to a system using thecombination of concentrated solar heatand HDR. Also, it appears as though theeconomics of this proposed solar/geothermal system are far more favorable

than those of huge, expensive power to-wers surrounded by costly heliosrats inlarge numbers.E. D. Lucas,Jr.Fountain Valley, Calif.

Puzzle Over New Zealand

I, for one, reject the so-called "reasonableexplanation" of the New Zealand lights- a rejection which apparently puzzlesRobert C. Cowen in his column, "Explo-rations of the First Kind"(March/April, p.10).

Though the "experts" claim the U.F.O.to be Venus, I was amazed at the detailshown in the photograph of the U.F.O.Venus? What kind of a camera could pos-sible showany detail of Venus when usedfrom Earth? So I asked an amateur as-tronomer whom I know and his answermade the "experts'" explanation evenmore difficult to accept. He said thatVenus at that particular time was in quar-ter phase; while to the naked eye it wouldstill look like a bright dot, with the use ofa telescope it would look like a half moonin shape. Any camera capable of pickingup detail of Venus should certainly showthis configuration.

Until more is positively known aboutthe source of these New Zealand lights, Imust still consider them as not identified,or more simply as a U.F.O.Erna C. FrenzelCentral Valley, N.Y.

Why Nuclear vs Coal?

I wish to compliment Mr. Montgomeryand Professor Rose on an excellent reviewof the severe intangible constraints con-fronting nuclear energy and energy de-velopment in general.

The objectivity of the assessment ismarred somewhat though by the nuclearversus coal debate. Coal bears a greatburden of false statements as well. It is be-coming starkly evident that the coal by-product sulfur dioxide is not a health is-sue, yet the idol makers force the nation topay tribute to their creation.

If we need nuclear and coal, why donuclear vested interests build the nuclearcase on the "bones" of the coal contribu-tion? We need to confront uncertaintywith information and teach the inevitabil-ity of rational risk for society or theAmerican future is grim indeed.William E. N. DoryPittsburgh, Penn.

(Cll1LllVllIEW§C1nVIEWS is distributed quarterlyto Citicorp investors. II containsviewpo.ints on timely ~ublic issues.We believe the following may beof interest 10 you ...

Pushing a StringA gardener trying to make the

grassgrow taller in the sparse patcheson his lawn by cutting it shortersomewhere else might fairly be toldthat he doesn't know much aboutgrass. Yet governments, in their per-sistent effort to control the distribu-tion of credit in American society,repeatedly employ precisely thesame method and with equally badresults. The danger of these exercisesis that while no lawn isever improvedin this way, its healthy portions maybe easily and severely damaged.

All governments, ancient andmodern, have at one time or anotherbeen seized by an urge to use someform of credit allocation to makecredit appear at a time or placewhere it would not otherwise go.

The problems with politicalcredit allocation are intrinsic tothe credit process itself. Creditexists because some people arewilling to pay for the use of otherpeople's money, and those othersare willing to lend their moneybecause they like to collect rent, inthe form of interest, on property forwhich they have no immediate use.In the market thus created, eachparticipant vigorously pursues his orher own self-interest; lenders, savers,and investors-consumers all try toachieve the highest possible returnon their money, after taking dueaccount of the risks, while borrowersstrive with equally strong desire tominimize their interest costs. Effortsto allocate credit by governmentfiat come into conflict with these

very human but relentless forces,and so governmental machinery forthe allocation of credit never works.

This history of failure has notdeterred the Government of theUnited States from trying repeatedlyover the past fifty years to controlthe flow of credit by specific effortsto favor some borrowers and lenderswhile penalizing others. By recentcount, these sporadic efforts haveleft us with some 150 laws andmajor regulations telling us what wemay and may not do with ourmoney. The restrictions most fre-quently encountered by the averagecitizen are those that limit the'interest he can collect on his savingsaccount, and that forbid him to bepaid anything at all for the moneyhe keeps in his checking account.Most regulations produce theireffects more subtly and lessdirectly,but the effects are pervasive and noone escapes their operation.

History is not lacking in exam-ples from the past. Ever sincemercantilism replaced feudalism thetemptation to regulate labor, landand money has been irresistible. OnMay 6, 1795, the justices of Berk-shire, England, met at Speenham-land. They set forth a scale of wagesubsidies tied to the price of bread,so that a minimum income would beassured to workingmen irrespectiveof their wages. It was a time ofgreat social distress in England, andthe Speenhamland scales wereintended as emergency measures. In

short order, the subsidies spreadthrough most of the country.

"No measure was ever moreuniversally popular:' according tothe late Dr. Karl Polanyi. "Parentswere free of the care of their children,and children no more dependentupon parents; employers wouldreduce wages at will and laborerswere safe from hunger whether theywere busy or slack; humanitariansapplauded the measure as an act ofmercy even though not of justiceand the selfish gladly consoledthemselves with the thought thatthough it was merciful at least itwas not liberal:'

In the long run the result was dis-astrous. Wage subsidies, paid frompublic funds, removed the floor fromwage levels, which sank steadilyuntil poor relief was preferable toworking. The Speenhamland lawwas repealed in 1834.

There are many parallels intoday's society to Speenhamland'sattempt to push a string, well inten-tioned and potentially disastrous toall concerned.

Most citizens are unaware of theprovisions of the Credit Control Actof 1969.This singular piece of legis-lation empowers the federal govern-ment to determine which citizens ofthe United States may borrowmoney, from whom, and how theyare allowed to spend it. Not gen-erally, but specifically and in detail.It arms the President with sweepingauthority to license all lenders,

register all loans, prohibit credit forpurposes deemed inappropriate,prescribe maximum amounts ofloans, establish maximum rates ofinterest, minimum down paymentson purchases, and conditions for therepayment of loans. The governmenthas never yet invoked these standbypowers. But they are there, andothers are now proposed.

The credit allocator's quandary isthat, in the final analysis, he cannothope to control anything unless hecontrols everything. If mortgagecredit is cheap enough, the homeowner can enlarge his mortgage andspend the money for anything hechooses, including the purchase ofscarce commodities. Or a personcan borrow on his or her life insur-ance at low interest rates set bylaw, thereby reducing the pool offunds that the insurance companyhas to invest in bonds and mort-gages.To the committed allocationistthe final solution is obvious: he mustnot only control the way our citizenslend or borrow money, but he mustalso control the way they spend it.And so on and on to price controlsand the disasters of Speenhamlandall over again.

There may be policy makerswho believe this to be in the nationalinterest, but it is doubtful that manycitizens will find it to be in theirs.

* * *A fuller discussion of this topic can be found

in Credit Allocation: An Exercise in the Futility ofControls. Copies of this Citibank study are availablefrom Citicorp, Public Affairs Department, 399 ParkAvenue, New York, N.Y.10043.

CITIBAN<OCITICORP399 Park Avenue

New York, New York 10043Cltibank. N.A. Member FDIC

Society Kenneth E. Boulding

In Extremis

Kenneth E. Boulding isDirector of the Institute ofBehavioral Science andProfessor of Economics atthe University of Col-orado at Boulder. He is aregular contributor toTechnology Review.

The accident at the nuclear power plant atThree Mile Island brought home veryclearly how ignorant we become whensystems move into an unfamiliar range. Ina very large part of the experience of ourdaily life we move, behave, communicate,react, and decide in systems that are famil-iar. We wake up in the morningin a famil-iar bed, we stagger down to breakfast in afamiliar house, take a familiar route, drivefamiliar vehicles. A great deal of our workis routine, "the daily round, the commontask," as the hymn says; and, at the end ofthe day, we drop again into our familiarbed. Throughout the day, though, we aredealing with systems of immense com-plexity. Somehow we manage ten billionneurons inside our head. We interact withother people of similar complexity. Wemay operate complex machines, be mak-ing complex plans, complex decisions. Aslong as these remain in the familiar range,their complexity does not bother us. Themore complex the system, however, themore likely it is to have a large penumbraof possible positions of low probabilitybeyond the central set of highly probablepositions which constitute the familiar.Away from this center, positions becomeless probable. But no matter how low theprobability of anything, if we wait longenough, it will eventually happen.

Provisions for Survival

All our familiar systems sometime orother move into an unfamiliar range. Wemay have a heart attack, the firm forwhich we work may go bankrupt, some-one near to us may die, war may be de-clared, a tornado may hit us, or a nuclearpower plant may develop a gas bubble.Inevitably, this takes us into regions of ig-norance. Survival, however, depends onthe ability to deal with movements of thesystem into extreme and unfamiliar po-sitions. Obviously, we know how to .sur-vive in the familiar or it would not befamiliar. As we move further and furtherinto the unfamiliar, a deepening cloud ofignorance enfolds us and we know less

8 Technology Review, August/September, 1979

and less about what will be the results ofour actions. It becomes easier to do thewrong thing, to take the fatal step at thepoint of no return, beyond which Iies sys-tem destruction.

Survival of an individual, a species, anorganization, or a society depends in thelong run on its ability to deal with the un-familiar, the capacity to know where weare in places we have never been, and toassess situations in which we have had noexperience. In the biological world, thisseems to be taken care of partly by redun-dancy. Think of the outrageous redun-dancy of seed and sperm, also of behavior,and the evolution of things as absurd assleep and play, which must have some-thing to do with the capacity of a speciesto survive extreme positions of its envi-ronment. The only alternative to redun-dancy seems to be awareness. Species thatbuild nests and have holes and dens, thathave mother love and sharp senses, can af-ford to be less redundant, have fewer off-spring, have narrower ranges of behavior.The balance between redundancy andawareness is a delicate one. In differentspecies we find strategies toward one orthe other end of the scale - from the vast

redundancy and tolerance of the dandel-ion or the herring to the precise adapta-.tion of some wasps or the robin.

The human race is the beneficiary ofboth worlds. There is fantastic redun-dance in the human brain.It is one of thegreat mysteries of evolution how naturalselection could possibly have produced soredundant an organ. Because of this re-dundant brain, we also have the potentialfor a transmittable learning process, re-sulting in an increasing awareness, as timegoes on, of the systems in which we liveand move. Awareness leads to projectionsof alternative futures and to decisionamong them. We can see this even in thedog chasing the rabbit. We experience itourselves when we jam on the brakes of acar and avoid an accident, or when oursociety comes to the brink of a catas-trophe (as we did in the Cuban missilecrisis) and draws back.

At Odds With the Improbable

Science has enormously increased ourawareness of the systems in which we live.This has enabled the human race to pene-trate into extreme systems where previ-