synoptic scale factors of significant tornadoes in the mid-south thomas salem, nws memphis, heather...
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Synoptic Scale Factors of Significant Tornadoes
in the Mid-South
Thomas Salem, NWS Memphis,
Heather Hyre, Miss. St. Univ.,
Janice Maldonado and Alina Nieves, Univ. of Puerto Rico Mayaguez
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From Rose et. al, 2004 WAF
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10 year Study of Tornadoes and Jets
• 97% of tornadoes associated with jets
• Dominate quadrant was left exit
Total Ent. Exit
Left 9% 37%
Right 20% 25%
Outbreaks Ent. Exit
Left 7% 44%
Right 16% 28%
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Mid-South Sig.Tornadoes (79-06)
250 mb
Winter Ent. Exit
Left 0 % 21 %
Right 8 % 71 %
Spring Ent. Exit
Left 2 % 28 %
Right 35 % 35 %
Fall Ent. Exit
Left 0 % 32 %
Right 37 % 32 %
EF2+ Ent. Exit
Left 1 % 27 %
Right 28 % 44 %
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Parameters Slight Moderate High
MSLP >1010 mb 1010-1005 mb <1005 mb
2m Dewpoint <55 °F 55-64 °F >65 °F
Dewpoint 850mb <8 °C 8-12 °C >12 °C
Isotachs 850mb ≤30 kts 30-40 kts >40 kts
Temp 700mb >11 °C 8-11 °C <8 °C
Isotachs 500mb ≤35 kts 36-49 kts >50 kts
Isotachs 250mb ≤65 kts 66-85 kts >85 kts
850-500 Wind Shear ≤25 kts 26-35 kts >35 kts
SBCAPE <1500 J/kg 1500-2500 J/kg >2500 J/kg
0-3 km Helicity <300 m²/s² 300-450 m²/s² >450 m²/s²
Lifted Index ≥-2 °C -3 to -5 °C <-6 °C
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Parameters High Moderate Slight
MSLP 48.51% 30.69% 20.80%
2m Dewpoint 28.71% 68.32% 2.97%
Dewpoint 850mb 18.81% 62.38% 18.81%
Isotachs 850mb 50.50% 31.68% 17.82%
Temp 700mb 98.02% 1.98% 0.00%
Isotachs 500mb 77.23% 15.84% 6.93%
Isotachs 250mb 41.58% 26.73% 31.68%850-500 Wind
Shear 3.96% 8.91% 87.13%
SBCAPE 15.84% 18.81% 65.35%
0-3 km Helicity 14.85% 24.75% 60.40%
Lifted Index 29.70% 28.71% 41.58%
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Parameters High Moderate Slight
MSLP 42.31% 38.46% 19.23%
2m Dewpoint 46.15% 53.85% 0.00%
Dewpoint 850mb 25.00% 71.15% 3.85%
Isotachs 850mb 30.77% 44.23% 25.00%
Temp 700mb 98.08% 1.92% 0.00%
Isotachs 500mb 71.15% 19.23% 9.62%
Isotachs 250mb 34.62% 32.69% 32.69%
850-500 Wind Shear 5.77% 11.54% 82.69%
SBCAPE 26.92% 26.92% 46.15%
0-3 km Helicity 13.46% 15.38% 71.15%
Lifted Index 50.00% 21.15% 28.85%
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Parameters High Moderate Slight
MSLP 68.42% 10.53% 21.05%
2m Dewpoint 15.79% 73.68% 10.53%
Dewpoint 850mb 15.79% 84.21% 0.00%
Isotachs 850mb 68.42% 21.05% 10.53%
Temp 700mb 100.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Isotachs 500mb 73.68% 26.32% 0.00%
Isotachs 250mb 42.12% 21.05% 36.84%
850-500 Wind Shear 0.00% 5.26% 94.74%
SBCAPE 5.26% 15.79% 78.95%
0-3 km Helicity 21.05% 31.58% 47.37%
Lifted Index 15.79% 31.58% 52.63%
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Parameters High Moderate Slight
MSLP 51.85% 33.33% 14.81%
2m Dewpoint 0.00% 96.30% 3.70%
Dewpoint 850mb 3.70% 33.33% 62.96%
Isotachs 850mb 81.48% 18.52% 0.00%
Temp 700mb 100.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Isotachs 500mb 100.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Isotachs 250mb 59.30% 22.22% 18.52%
850-500 Wind Shear 3.70% 7.41% 88.89%
SBCAPE 0.00% 3.70% 96.30%
0-3 km Helicity 14.81% 40.74% 44.44%
Lifted Index 0.00% 40.74% 59.26%
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Parameters High Moderate Slight
MSLP <1005 mb 1010-1005 mb >1010 mb
2m Dewpoint >65 °F 55-64 °F W,F <55 °F
Dewpoint 850mb >12 °C 8-12 °C F, Sp <8 °C
Isotachs 850mb >40 kts W 30-40 kts ≤30 kts
Temp 700mb <8 °C W,F, Sp 8-11 °C >11 °C
Isotachs 500mb >50 kts W,F, Sp 36-49 kts ≤35 kts
Isotachs 250mb >85 kts 66-85 kts ≤65 kts
850-500 Wind Shear >35 kts 26-35 kts ≤25 kts W,F,Sp
SBCAPE >2500 J/kg 1500-2500 J/kg <1500 J/kg W,F
0-3 km Helicity >450 m²/s² 300-450 m²/s² <300 m²/s² Sp
Lifted Index <-6 °C -3 to -5 °C ≥-2 °C
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