SYDNEY AUSTRALIA SEPTEMBER 20, 2015 Sanjaya Rajaram Wheat in 2030 INTERNATIONAL WHEAT CONFERENCE RESOURCE SEEDS INTERNATIONAL TOLUCA,MXICO Current population: 7.3 billion 2030 population: 8.5 billion 2050 population: 9.7 billion World Population Prospects, UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, 2015 GLOBAL POPULATION HUNGER VULNERABILITY Based on the food availability gap, rate of poverty, and stunting IMPORT TRENDS (2015) SOURCE: CIMMYT EXPORT TRENDS (2015) SOURCE: CIMMYT WHEAT DEMAND BY 2030 230M ha wheat area (about the same distribution in developed and developing countries) 750M ton produced now per year 1 billion per year will be required Current productivity: av. 3.2t per ha New productivity that we need: av. 4.3t per ha 1.6% yield increase per year needed CHALLENGES Population growth, poverty, and food security Climate change Environmental degradation Loss of biodiversity How will we meet demand in the face of such challenges? DEPLETION OF ORGANIC CARBON OF CULTIVATED SOILS COMPARED WITH UNDISTURBED SOILS IN INDIA RegionSOC Content Cultivated /g (kg) Native ( g/kg )% Reduction 1.- North West Gangetic Plains Himalaya North East South East West Coast Deccan Plateau TECHNOLOGICAL INTERVENTIONS FOR INCREASED YIELDS & STABILITY 1.WIDESPREAD USE OF HYBRIDS IN GLOBAL SETTING. 2.APPLICATION OF GM TECHNOLOGY TO PROTECT AGAINST PESTS. 3.USE OF CONSERVATION AGRICULTURE TO MAINTAIN THE SOIL HEALTH. 4.A ROBUST SEED SYSTEM IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES. 5. MAINTAINING GENETIC BASE OF OUR FUTURE VARIETIES: DIVERSE,ROBUST AND FORTIFIED WITH MULTIPLE GENES FOR DISEASE RESISTANCE. 6. INVOLVEMENT OF THE PRIVATE SECTOR IN WHEAT R&D, INCLUDING DEVELOPING COUNTRIES. 7. STRENGTHENING OF INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH SYSTEMS ESPECIALLY THOSE OF CGIAR TO KEEP GERMPLASM FLOWING FREELY TO THOSE WHO WANT IT. NEW TECHNOLOGIES IN WHEAT Hybrid wheat GM wheat Replacing inefficient irrigation systems with more precise methods like subsurface drip irrigation Harvesting rain water at individual farms to increase efficiency in growing horticultural and fruit crops WATER USE Need better training because we need a different kind of scientists to meet the future challenges HUMAN RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT PUBLIC - PRIVATE PARTNERSHIPS Clearly defined policies that allow for meaningful PPP We talk about PPP but many countries do not have the needed mechanisms in place to make them actually work ROLE OF INTERNATIONAL CENTERS ANS NARS Much more synergy needed the National Agricultural Research Systems + MY CHALLENGE TO YOU: What will YOU do in your country? THANK YOU