H1N1: The Swine Flu

Tyler LewisSarah DelaneyRyan CliffordKevin GerhartFrank CastronovoPat Lynch

Introduction The new H1N1 (Swine Flu) strain is

based primarily on an unusual virus that has been circulating widely in pigs since the mid-1990s.

The H1N1 strain mixed with two other strains to create a triple strain virus thus creating the SWINE FLU.

When a Swine flu virus infects a cell, it breaks down into its eight component genes and invades the cell's nucleus. Once inside, those genes make hundreds of copies of themselves. Then they exit the nucleus and repackage themselves into new flu particles, which go on to infect additional cells.

Introduction Swine Flu has become one of the most feared and

widely known diseases in recent history Swine flu symptoms:

Fever, which is usually high, but unlike seasonal flu, is sometimes absent

Cough Runny nose or stuffy nose Sore throat Body aches Headache Chills Fatigue or tiredness, which can be extreme Diarrhea and vomiting, sometimes, but more commonly seen

than with seasonal flu

Swine Flu Damages in Mexico

3 month span 63,479 infected with swine flu 1-63 died from the flu Of those aged 70 and older who got sick,

10.3 percent died. Pregnant women made up 6% of the

deaths in Mexico. That rate is a bit lower than in the United States (8%) over the same time period.

Swine Flu Damages in U.S.

U.S. had 22 Million infected 4,000 Americans died ¾ of deaths have been from 18-64 540 teenagers, children and babies died 10% swine flu deaths were amongst

elderly 98% of H1N1 related hospitalizations Concerned- 59% Not concerned- 41%

Our Main Research Hypothesis Students in the surrounding Wilkes-

Barre area are not taking necessary precautions to prevent obtaining the swine flu.

We surveyed at: Wilkes Misericordia Kings

Predictions

We predicted that the majority of the people surveyed would know of the swine flu, but not the symptoms of it.

We also predicted that people would not take drastic measures to prevent contraction of the swine flu.

Data Sampling

Sample Size: 60 students from 3 colleges

(Wilkes, Kings, Misericordia)

Paper Surveys

Random sampling

Pie Chart 1 of Schools

32%

33%

35%

Schools

KingsMiserc.Wilkes

Questions Asked (Demographics)

What is your gender?

What is your age?

Where do you attend school? (If in college)

What is your major?

Questions Asked (Opinions)

1. Are you aware of the risk of Swine Flu? (circle all you are aware of)

a) Swine Flu, like other viruses, can be contracted by touching objects contaminated by viruses.

b) Respiratory failure and death

c) Fever, cough, sore throat, and fatigue

Confidence Interval Question 1 Are you aware of the risk of Swine

Flu?

We looked at the average (mean) number of people who were aware of at least 2/3 of the risks associated with swine flu

Confidence Interval

for the mean Risk of Swine Flu

point estimate 0.73

critical measure 1.96

standard error 0.03

upper limit 0.80

lower limit 0.67

Confidence Interval Question 2 Are you aware of the risk of Swine

Flu?

How many people surveyed were aware that the swine flu could result in respiratory failure and death?

Confidence Interval

for the proportion Respiratory Failure & Death

sample proportion 0.58

sample size 60

critical measure 1.96

standard error 0.06

upper limit 0.71

lower limit 0.46

Questions Asked (Opinions)

2. Are you aware of the precautions that you can take to prevent swine flu?(circle all you are aware of)

a) Always cover your mouth and nose when coughing or sneezing

b) Ideally use something disposable, like tissue, when coughing or sneezing

c) Wash your hands frequently with soap and waterd) If you start feeling ill with cold or flu-like

symptoms, do not got to work or schoole) Vaccination via shot/nasal spray

1 Sample Hypothesis Test Are you aware of the precautions

that you can take to prevent swine flu?

We considered at least three of the five options given, to be aware of the precautions

1 Sample Hypothesis Test Results

Are more than half of the people surveyed aware of the precautions you can take to prevent swine flu?

NULL: p =< Half Not more than half of the people surveyed are

aware of the precautions you can take to prevent swine flu.

ALTERNATIVE: p > Half More than half of the people surveyed are aware

of the precautions you can take to prevent swine flu.

1 Sample Hypothesis Test Results

test statistic (obs) 38.0 critical measure 0.829

obs > critical? TRUE p-value 0.0000 a-level 0.05

p-value < a-level? TRUE

Reject the null. More than half of the people surveyed are aware of the precautions you can take to prevent swine flu.

Questions Asked (Behavior)

3. How often do you wash your hands?

a) Never

b) Once a day

c) 2-3 times a day

d) 4-5 times a day

e) 6 or more times a day

2 Sample Hypothesis Test #1 How often do you wash your hands?

We based our 2 sample hypothesis test off of gender. In this instance we used 2-3 times a day as our testing point.

2 Sample Hypothesis Test Results Are females more likely than males to wash their

hands at least 2-3 times a day?

NULL: p2 > p1 Females wash their hands more than males

ALTERNATIVE: p2 <= p1 Females do not wash their hands more than

males

2 Sample Hypothesis Test Results

test statistic (obs) 2.340 critical measure 1.645

obs > critical? YES p-value 0.01 a-level 0.05

p-value < a-level YES

Reject the Null. Females do not wash their hands more than males 2-3 times a day.

Questions Asked (Behavior)

4. What do you do when you cough/sneeze?

a) Just let it out

b) Cover your mouth or nose with hand

c) Use a tissue

d) Use your arm/sleeve to cover

Column Graph 1 of Question 4

f m0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

What Do People Do When They Sneeze?

NeverCover Mouth or NoseUse a TissueUse Arm/Sleeve to Cover

Female or Male

Tota

l Am

ount

1 Sample Hypothesis Test #2 What do you do when you

cough/sneeze?

We based our test off of the people who “just let it out” and do not cover their mouths at all.

1 Sample Hypothesis Test #2 Are there people that do not cover their mouths

when sneezing?

NULL: m<= 60 People do not cover their mouths

ALTERNATIVE: m > 60 People do cover their mouths

1 Sample Hypothesis Results test statistic (obs) -392.8 critical measure 1.89

|obs| > critical? Yes p-value 0.00001 a-level 0.05

p-value < a-level? Yes

Reject the Null. There are more people that cover their mouths when sneezing.

Questions Asked (Behavior)

5. How often do you attend social events/settings (ex. The bar, parties, sporting events, etc.?)

a) Never

b) Once a month

c) Once a week

d) 1-3 times a week

e) Daily

2 Sample Hypothesis Test #2 How often do you attend social

events/settings (ex. The bar, parties, sporting events, etc.?)

We based our 2 sample hypothesis test according to Wilkes and Misericordia. In this instance we used 1-3 times a week as our testing point.

2 Sample Hypothesis Test #2 Are Wilkes students more at risk of the swine flu

by attending social events 1-3 times a week than Misericordia students?

NULL: p1 <= p2 Wilkes students are not at more of a risk

ALTERNATIVE: p1 > p2 Wilkes students are at more of a risk

2 Sample Hypothesis Test Results test statistic (obs) 3.449 critical measure 1.960

obs > critical? YES p-value 0.0006 a-level 0.05

p-value < a-level YES

Reject the Null. Wilkes students are at more of a risk of contracting the swine flu by attending social events more often.

Questions Asked (Behavior)

6. What measure would you take to prevent contraction of the Swine Flu? (circle all you are aware of)

a) Vaccination via shot/nasal spray

b) Wearing respiratory masks in public

c) Education in preventative measures

d) Washing hands regularly

e) None (I am not concerned about the swine flu)

Central Tendencies

What measure would you take to prevent contraction of the Swine Flu?

Mode 42 Washing hands regularly

Median 17 Education in preventative measure

Mean 20.6 Vaccination shot/nasal spray

Bar Graph: Measure of Center

Total

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

Measure of Center: Mode

Sum of 6aSum of 6bSum of 6cSum of 6dSum of 6e

People Surveyed

Answ

ers

2 Sample Hypothesis Test #3 What measure would you take to

prevent contraction of the Swine Flu?

Based on the vaccination via shot/nasal spray we based our hypothesis on the age and how willing people are to getting the vaccination

2 Sample Hypothesis Test #3

Does age affect the number of people willing to get a vaccination shot?

NULL: m1 = m2 age does not affect the willingness to get the

vaccination ALTERNATIVE: m1 < > m2

age does affect the willingness to get the vaccination

2 Sample Hypothesis Test Results test statistic (obs) 45.42 critical measure 1.96

obs| > critical?? Yes p-value 0.000 a-level 0.05

p-value < a-level?? Yes

Reject the Null. Age does affect people and their willingness on getting the vaccination shot.

Results/Conclusion

Hypothesis: Students in the surrounding Wilkes-Barre area are not taking necessary precautions to prevent obtaining the swine flu. All students are at more of a risk to

contract the swine flu by attending social events

Wilkes University students are at more of a risk than Misericordia students due to the fact of attending more social events

Results/Conclusion

We predicted that the majority of the people surveyed would know of the swine flu, but not the symptoms of it. More than half of the people surveyed are

aware of the precautions you can take to prevent swine flu.

73% of the people surveyed are aware of the risks of swine flu.

58% said they do know that the swine flu can cause respiratory failure and death.

Results/Conclusion

We predicted people would not take drastic measures to prevent contraction of the swine flu. Overall students would rather wash their

hands first before receiving education and vaccinations therefore; no they would not take drastic measures to prevent contraction of the swine flu.

However, people are still aware they have the option to get the vaccination shot