swfdp-eastern africa november 2011 noaa/ncep african desk product surfing presented by hamza kabelwa...
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SWFDP-Eastern Africa November 2011
NOAA/NCEP African Desk Product Surfing
Presented by
Hamza Kabelwa
Prepared by Richard H. Grumm
Contributions by Vadlamani Kumar NCEP
Version 2.0
SWFDP-Eastern Africa November 2011
Overview
• NCEP African Desk website– Key entry point:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/african_desk/cpc_intl/– Products for forecasters
• http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/african_desk/cpc_intl/africa/africa.shtml
• Surfs up tour of products and locations
SWFDP-Eastern Africa November 2011
NCEP African Desk Entry Pointhttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/african_desk/cpc_intl/
• Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
• Part of USAID/Famine Early Warning System (FEWS)
• African Desk Training/Cirriculum
• Forecast Products and outlooks
• Key contacts• Wassila Thiaw• Vadlamani Kumar
• Enter • Via the MAP• Our Africa under Special
Products
SWFDP-Eastern Africa November 2011
Test Drive Site for Products
• Try main entry point
• Examine text products bulletin
• Examine use of maps and data+-
• http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/african_desk/cpc_intl/
• http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/african_desk/cpc_intl/africa/africa.shtml
SWFDP-Eastern Africa November 2011
Main Forecaster Real-time datahttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/african_desk/cpc_intl/africa/africa.shtml
• Resources for forecaster
• Expert Assessments
• Regional NWP
• Africa Wide NWP• Observations
– Analysis– Precipitation
• Satellite Data– Real-time and precipitatoin
estimates
SWFDP-Eastern Africa November 2011
Links
• International Jump off point:– http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/africa
n_desk/cpc_intl/
• Main Forecast entry point– http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/africa
n_desk/cpc_intl/africa/africa.shtml
• East Africa tools:– http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/africa
n_desk/cpc_intl/eafrica/eafrica.shtml
SWFDP-Eastern Africa November 2011
Weakness and Strength
• IHigher resolution than the EFS
15 or 27 vs 75 km
Typically more skill than our EFS
Best at shorter forecast ranges
It is an ensemble member in and of itself
Has meteorological details
Put details often introduce errors!
SWFDP-Eastern Africa November 2011
Weakness and Strength
• I EFS and global models are too course for features which can really impact
the local and regional weather Smooth out terrain features Smooth out finer scale features
Flooding and severe weather events are typically meso-b and meso-g features
Finer resolution models and Local Area Models play a valuable role in filling the gaps
Diagnosis of stability can help in many cases
SWFDP-Eastern Africa November 2011
Review
• NCEP African Desk website– Main jump off/entry point:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/african_desk/cpc_intl/– Products for forecasters
• http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/african_desk/cpc_intl/africa/africa.shtml
• A brief tour of the site was conducted