j.n. kagenyi senior meteorologist rs/gis imtr-nairobi swfdp nov.2012
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: J.N. Kagenyi Senior Meteorologist RS/GIS IMTR-NAIROBI SWFDP NOV.2012](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032721/56649cd85503460f949a065d/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Effective Use of Satellite Information in Severe Wx Fcasting:Use of blended data products:
J.N. Kagenyi Senior Meteorologist RS/GIS
IMTR-NAIROBISWFDP NOV.2012
![Page 2: J.N. Kagenyi Senior Meteorologist RS/GIS IMTR-NAIROBI SWFDP NOV.2012](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032721/56649cd85503460f949a065d/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
2
Data available
Synoptic (MDD) Satellite (MSG Channels, RGB products) MPEF, SAF
Products e.g. (Now casting SAF), MODIS products, jason etc
NWP models different spatial and temporal resolutions (UK Models
(3,to 0.5 deg), WAFs,ECMWF models, Local models (LAM, regional models) and many more
Diagnostic models (manual plots and analyses, development and forecast)
Radar data for nowcasting, Climatology (seasonal information to help with
shift from normal)
![Page 3: J.N. Kagenyi Senior Meteorologist RS/GIS IMTR-NAIROBI SWFDP NOV.2012](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032721/56649cd85503460f949a065d/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
3
Synergie System designed to: Integration of all data
Integrate all data in a workstation Equipping the weather person with
power of information Role for experienced Forecaster is to
obtain optimum information from ALL the available data to make Reliable Forecast
Capacity to handle all this data is the subject of your presence Here!
![Page 4: J.N. Kagenyi Senior Meteorologist RS/GIS IMTR-NAIROBI SWFDP NOV.2012](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032721/56649cd85503460f949a065d/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
4
Possible Steps in Severe WX Identification Using Synergie system
Assumptions all participants have access of Synergie system
back home. Availability of Near Real Time (NRT) data for this
exercise. Step 1. What season are we? Rainy season!
Hence certainty of S/WX case is more certain Step 2. display a VIS Image if daytime
otherwise ch4 (3.9) or RGB Convection(10-9,9-4,9-0) at night time, to identify location of any convection by water clouds
![Page 5: J.N. Kagenyi Senior Meteorologist RS/GIS IMTR-NAIROBI SWFDP NOV.2012](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032721/56649cd85503460f949a065d/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
5
Step 2: Display VIS (day)
Several convective cells at different stages of development
![Page 6: J.N. Kagenyi Senior Meteorologist RS/GIS IMTR-NAIROBI SWFDP NOV.2012](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032721/56649cd85503460f949a065d/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
6
Step3: Use WV5 and WV6
Use WV 6.2 and 7.3 microns to identify potential areas with enough moisture to support further development (Deep column)
White areas are moist and cold, dark or grey areas are low in WV and warmer.
Upper level moisture from WV5 (6.2) Medium Level moisture from WV6
(7.3)
![Page 7: J.N. Kagenyi Senior Meteorologist RS/GIS IMTR-NAIROBI SWFDP NOV.2012](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032721/56649cd85503460f949a065d/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
7
Display WV5 data for Moisture
1. Convective cells are within the high density water vapour.
2. They exist in convergence zone.region
3. Moisture supply is high
4. Time is 12:12 pm
5. Further development possible likely
![Page 8: J.N. Kagenyi Senior Meteorologist RS/GIS IMTR-NAIROBI SWFDP NOV.2012](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032721/56649cd85503460f949a065d/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
8
Display WV-6 for Mid Level Moisture
Sufficient moisture at mid levels
Question Is there enough Thermodynamic (Pressure Field) convergence at lower levels and Upper air diffluence (wind data or Animations) to generate deep convection?
![Page 9: J.N. Kagenyi Senior Meteorologist RS/GIS IMTR-NAIROBI SWFDP NOV.2012](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032721/56649cd85503460f949a065d/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
9
Step 4: Animate to Identify trend on convective areas
You may animate Vis or IR, RGB consecutive images for the last 15,30,45,60 minutes
This will answer the two questions: Is convection increasing or decaying? What direction are systems leading? How fast is the system developing?
Channel 3(1.6): good for daytime as reflectance reduces for developing severe storms and brighteness for decaying storms
At night use night time microphysics RGB (10-9,9-4,9-0) or 5-6,9-4,5i air-mass)
![Page 10: J.N. Kagenyi Senior Meteorologist RS/GIS IMTR-NAIROBI SWFDP NOV.2012](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032721/56649cd85503460f949a065d/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
10
Animation on Dev. convection Animate=2003 observation. It is evidence on this animation that
between 8-12:30 the region around southern lake Victorian
and land east of the lake developed from shallow convection, white reflectance on ch3 to deep convection of large ice crystals (low reflectance=grey) similarly over Kisumu and Western Nyanza of Kenya.
use Ch9 to confirms temp changes.
![Page 11: J.N. Kagenyi Senior Meteorologist RS/GIS IMTR-NAIROBI SWFDP NOV.2012](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032721/56649cd85503460f949a065d/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
11
Step 5: Confirm microphysics or stages of convection by RGB149,
Deep red indicates very cold large ice clouds.
The Yellow brown are areas with small ice and water clouds at stage of development see over lake Tanganyika.
• Cyan is cloud free and warm
• Deep Blue is warm water body
![Page 12: J.N. Kagenyi Senior Meteorologist RS/GIS IMTR-NAIROBI SWFDP NOV.2012](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032721/56649cd85503460f949a065d/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
12
Step 5:Confirm microphysics or stages of convection by RGB139
Deep dirty brown indicates very cold large ice clouds.
The yellow areas are clouds with small ice and water clouds at stage of development- Super-cooled (-33 deg) clouds, see over lake Tanganyika.
• Cyan is cloud free and warm
• Deep Blue is warm water body.
• Thin Cirrus clouds appear dark brown
![Page 13: J.N. Kagenyi Senior Meteorologist RS/GIS IMTR-NAIROBI SWFDP NOV.2012](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032721/56649cd85503460f949a065d/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
13
Step 6: Get synoptic data 3-6 hours
View reported synoptic data for synoptic hours.
Confirm from dry bulb and web bulb data for drying or increase in moisture from depression values or differences of ( Ta-Td)
You may use conditional plotting of Synergy tools. Area whose( Ta-Td) <=1 Moist or cloudy Areas whose Ta-Td =>8 dry air
conditions
![Page 14: J.N. Kagenyi Senior Meteorologist RS/GIS IMTR-NAIROBI SWFDP NOV.2012](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032721/56649cd85503460f949a065d/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
14
Full Synoptic chart at 15:00 utc
Scarce data stations requires to be complemented with Satellite data
![Page 15: J.N. Kagenyi Senior Meteorologist RS/GIS IMTR-NAIROBI SWFDP NOV.2012](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032721/56649cd85503460f949a065d/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
15
Overlay Display: Airmass rgb , Synoptic chart Surface obs on-22/11/11
1. Current Wind analysis suggests a convergence zone as shown
2. Position of deep convection is supported by convergence of the winds
3. Moist Easterly winds supply moisture
![Page 16: J.N. Kagenyi Senior Meteorologist RS/GIS IMTR-NAIROBI SWFDP NOV.2012](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032721/56649cd85503460f949a065d/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
16
2/2 Synoptic chart: with Overlay AirmassSA -22/11/11
1. Dry cold air-mass from Southern Tip of Africa.
2. This appears to be under St Hellena high pressure ridge cell (descending air). supports synoptic p/gradient
3. Moisture: dry bulb 30oC wet bulb -4oC. (Dry air)
![Page 17: J.N. Kagenyi Senior Meteorologist RS/GIS IMTR-NAIROBI SWFDP NOV.2012](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032721/56649cd85503460f949a065d/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
17
Step 7. Severe weather arises from deep convection
Deep convection goes beyond medium and upper tropopause hence
Any weather feature that causes WV5-WV6 >0 generates TS and Heavy Showers/ rain
Solar radiation & Mechanical lifting (wind field convergence zone or orographic lifting) contribute to development of severe weather.
![Page 18: J.N. Kagenyi Senior Meteorologist RS/GIS IMTR-NAIROBI SWFDP NOV.2012](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032721/56649cd85503460f949a065d/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
18
Step 7: analysis WV5-WV6 product
Dark is negative
White is positive or almost equal to zero
Analysis for Deep convection
![Page 19: J.N. Kagenyi Senior Meteorologist RS/GIS IMTR-NAIROBI SWFDP NOV.2012](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032721/56649cd85503460f949a065d/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
19
Step8: WV5 Merge with AIRMASS RGB
Synergie Under tool important for And comparison
WV5 under Airmass RGB
![Page 20: J.N. Kagenyi Senior Meteorologist RS/GIS IMTR-NAIROBI SWFDP NOV.2012](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032721/56649cd85503460f949a065d/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
20
Areas of deep convection RGb139
Areas of deep convection in Red
![Page 21: J.N. Kagenyi Senior Meteorologist RS/GIS IMTR-NAIROBI SWFDP NOV.2012](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032721/56649cd85503460f949a065d/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
21
Step 9: AIRMASS RGB (5-6,8-9,0-5)
To detect dry
and
moist air sources
![Page 22: J.N. Kagenyi Senior Meteorologist RS/GIS IMTR-NAIROBI SWFDP NOV.2012](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032721/56649cd85503460f949a065d/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
22
Step 10: WV5 and areas of Jetstreams
Positions of Jetstreams affectsWeather in their region of influence for instance creation of strong outflows at the tropopause level .
The Onset of a season could be associated with the intensity andthe position of JetstreamsE g. EAST Africa Low Level jet (July –September)
![Page 23: J.N. Kagenyi Senior Meteorologist RS/GIS IMTR-NAIROBI SWFDP NOV.2012](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032721/56649cd85503460f949a065d/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
23
Step 11: ECMF2.5 ITCZ and Areas of confluence on 850 hPa wind :ea
1. Satellite imagery confirms the identification of convergence zone by a belt of Cloud clusters.
2. Image analysis gives colours that depict the type of system and the stage of development
![Page 24: J.N. Kagenyi Senior Meteorologist RS/GIS IMTR-NAIROBI SWFDP NOV.2012](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032721/56649cd85503460f949a065d/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
24
Step12: NWP wind at 850 Hpa 22.11.11
Areas of low level convergence
Corresponds with areas of deep clouds
Causing High MPE values
![Page 25: J.N. Kagenyi Senior Meteorologist RS/GIS IMTR-NAIROBI SWFDP NOV.2012](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032721/56649cd85503460f949a065d/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
25
Data: Merging three layers
Streamlines on
200 hPa BLUE
850 hPa (RED) and IR 10.8 on background .24 hrs shift.
Notice the position of Outflow on 200
![Page 26: J.N. Kagenyi Senior Meteorologist RS/GIS IMTR-NAIROBI SWFDP NOV.2012](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032721/56649cd85503460f949a065d/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
26
Compare RGB and NWP Wind
![Page 27: J.N. Kagenyi Senior Meteorologist RS/GIS IMTR-NAIROBI SWFDP NOV.2012](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032721/56649cd85503460f949a065d/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
27
NWP AND SW FCASTING
NWP data and the Synoptic data report.1. Gives great harmony on data analysis to forecasters. and In particular when NWP replicates the weather as observed on Satellite The Belt of convergence on
NWP wind analysis on 850 hPa identifies areas of expected Severe Weather.
Meridional Arm of ITCZ is denoted red
The Identification of pressure features provides tools of decision making in Wx fcasting.
![Page 28: J.N. Kagenyi Senior Meteorologist RS/GIS IMTR-NAIROBI SWFDP NOV.2012](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032721/56649cd85503460f949a065d/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
28
22/11/11 MPE Rain estimate
Will your forecast give betterResults than this estimate
![Page 29: J.N. Kagenyi Senior Meteorologist RS/GIS IMTR-NAIROBI SWFDP NOV.2012](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032721/56649cd85503460f949a065d/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
29
MPE Overlay on day microphysics RGB
![Page 30: J.N. Kagenyi Senior Meteorologist RS/GIS IMTR-NAIROBI SWFDP NOV.2012](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032721/56649cd85503460f949a065d/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
30
WV6 mid level moisture: 22/11/11
Active ITCZ zone is clearly defined on this mid level signal map. DRC and neighboring countries, Botswana Zambia, are wet. Seasonally the Sothern African countries Except Namibia and SA are experiencing the Onset of rains.
![Page 31: J.N. Kagenyi Senior Meteorologist RS/GIS IMTR-NAIROBI SWFDP NOV.2012](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032721/56649cd85503460f949a065d/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
31
Upper Air data for Nowcasting
Ascent analysis: 1. Very Unstable at lower
levels.2. Generally moist
atmosphere but dry at 450 hpa
3. Easterly Wind pattern conducive for afternoon WX activities
Fcast: Showers and T/S over several places over Nairobi and Highlands East .
Lake basin: Heavy TS/Showers over most places.
Flooding Alert! In Lake region
![Page 32: J.N. Kagenyi Senior Meteorologist RS/GIS IMTR-NAIROBI SWFDP NOV.2012](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032721/56649cd85503460f949a065d/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
32
Presentation of Wx Fcast for your Area
Exercise: Create a forecast for Severe WX for your regions: 5 slides
Present to us.Use SynergieForm groups of 4Use 20 Minutes:
![Page 33: J.N. Kagenyi Senior Meteorologist RS/GIS IMTR-NAIROBI SWFDP NOV.2012](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032721/56649cd85503460f949a065d/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
33
Goodbye
Kwaheri na ASANTE