sweden’s national emission projection system and the scac research program tfeip, milan, italy...

Sweden’s national emission projection systemand the SCAC research program

TFEIP, Milan, Italy

Tomas Gustafsson, Karin Kindbom

12 May 2015

Sweden’s national emission projection systemTFEIP, 12 May 2015

Overview

Introduction National system for GHG emission projections Air pollutant emission projections Swedish Clean Air and Climate (SCAC) research program Key areas for improvements


Introduction

Emission projections play an important role in Sweden’s development of national and international air quality and climate policies and measures

Present national system for emission projections mainly supports the needs for GHG emission projections, and to a lesser extent air pollutant emission projections

There is a need for one coordinated national system of GHG and air pollutant emission projections in Sweden


Introduction

Sweden reports projections of greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions to EU, UNFCCC and air pollutant emission projections to EU and CLRTAP

Up to 2014, data flows have mostly been non-regulated agreements

As of 2015, national ordinance to establish and secure data flows between national agencies in accordance with EU MMR (GHG only)


National system for GHG emission projections

Transport Administration,Transport Analysis,Transport Agency

MoEE

EPA EU, UNFCCC

Energy Agency

ConsultantsSMED

Industries, Trade associations,

National experts

Profu (MARKAL)

National Institute of Economic Research

Board of Agriculture

Regulated in Ordinance

Data

Meeting, expertise


National system for GHG emission projections

Consultants (consortium SMED) performs part of the emission projection calculations on behalf of Swedish EPA– IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute, – Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), – Statistics Sweden (SCB), – the Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU).


Air pollutant emission projections

Mainly based on the same AD projections/assumptions as for GHG emission projections

In most cases developed by SMED– Road traffic emission projections produced by the Swedish

Transport Administration

EF projections developed by SMED to ensure time-series consistency and competence

Not fully integrated with national GAINS projection estimation process.


Swedish Clean Air and Climate (SCAC) research program

Overall objective: To develop and improve the scientific basis for air pollution policies on national and international scales

WP2:3 - develop a ‘Conceptual emission projection and scenario model’ for both GHG and air pollutants– Systematic methods and processes– Present and future needs– Sensitivity analysis (e.g. as tool for improvements)

Stakeholder analyses with key experts at e.g. EPA, County boards, Transport Agency, Energy Agency, SMED, etc


Conceptual model Projections and scenarios for emissions of GHG and air pollutants

StakeholdersSwedish EPA

Swedish Energy AgencySwedish Transport Agency

SMEDetc

Documentation- Preconditions- Assumptions- Limitations- Data- Methods- Calculations/models- Uncertainties

ProjectionsNational Regional

-Energy

TransportIndustrial processesAgriculture

WasteLULUCF

-Activity

Activity dataTechnologies

Emission factorsEmissions

PreconditionsEU/UN requirements

National goalsNational PaMs

Uses/usersInternational Conventions

EUNational monitoring

Basis for national strategiesSupport negotiations

Regional use

Stakeholder analyses

Sensitivity analysis

Stakeholders/Models/Assumptions

Description of:Data and information flow

CooperationProcedures for:

-QA/QC-documentation

-validation/assessment/reviewAnalysis

of user needs


SCAC stakeholder analyses/Key areas for improvements

Coordination of workflow, assumptions and other information for GHG and air pollutants emission projections– Build on the present GHG system and create added value

for air pollutants

Collect and make use of experiences, to improve quality and build new projections based on analysis of previous

More accessible and usable emission projections by improved and “the right” documentation of data, assumptions and limitations



Better knowledge and integration of information on future technology development

More harmonized road transportation projections Avoid bottlenecks in the work process Better integration with GAINS model estimations to be

able to interpret the differences in results Development of emission projections/scenarios for other

purposes than international reporting (e.g. regional projections)



Improved QA/QC (at least: lift air pollutants to the same level as GHGs), – for credibility, robustness, etc.

Sensitivity analysis, as a tool– to identify important assumptions/variables for

improvement– to investigate if the process/modelling can be streamlined– for improved communication of results


SCAC…lessons learned

Very fruitful and enlightening (for all!) to have important stakeholders in one room for discussions– Promotes (necessary) mutual understanding – Some Aha! moments

– For example..– Energy agency, having a GHG-focus, realized the importance

of small scale biomass combustion activity data for air pollutants, while practically negligible for GHG emissions

– GHG projections people realized the importance of technologies and abatement measures for air pollutant emission EFs

Thank you for your attention!

Contacts:

Tomas Gustafsson: [email protected]

Karin Kindbom: [email protected]

Information about the SCAC research program:

www.scac.se (in English)

mailto:[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

http://www.scac.se/

sweden’s national emission projection system and the scac research program tfeip, milan, italy...

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