sustaining aquaculture · pdf file · 2013-10-13sustaining aquaculture growth 02...

SUSTAINING AQUACULTURE GROWTH

CONSU LTAT ION DRA F T

How do we sustain the growth in aquaculture that is needed?

02

SUSTA INING AQUACULTURE GROWTH

02


CONTENT Page

02.01 CURRENT STATE 1

What is the current status of aquaculture and how does it differ geographically and by production type?

02.02 TRENdS ANd ExpECTAT iONS 4

What are the current trends in aquaculture production and what is the evidence for this? / How are current trends expected to evolve in the coming decade?

02.03 KEY UNCERTA iNT iES 5

What are the key uncertainties surrounding conclusions about the current state of aquaculture? / How do these uncertainties differ by geographic region or aquaculture sector? / What are the key uncertainties that will affect likely futures for the sector?

02.04 KEY iSSUES 6

What are the key issues that need to be addressed to improve aquaculture sector governance and production practices to sustain sector growth? / Do these issues differ for different parts of the aquaculture sector? / Why is this?

02.05 SUCCESSES 7

Are there any examples or promising approaches that illustrate the ways in which problems in this area have been successfully addressed?

02.06 REFERENCES ANd RELATEd REAdiNG 8

ABOUT TH iS dOCUMENT

This briefing paper is part of a series aimed at providing accessible summaries of key issues for the fish food system. Combining empirical data summaries with informed opinion and perspective we hope that these papers will both inform and stimulate debate and dialogue among stakeholders. Each brief was prepared by the Fishing for a Future secretariat, drawing on opinions and analysis provided by an expert in the topic area; this paper was prepared with support from Dr D. Little and Dr J. Bostock.

Comments and critique are welcome and should be sent to [email protected].

What is the current status of aquaculture and how does it differ geographically and by production type?

AqUACULTURE pROdUCES HALF THE wORLd’S F iSH FOR diRECT

CONSUMpT iON.

AqUACULTURE pROdUCT iON iS pREdOMiNANTLY iNLANd iN FRESHwATER.

CH iNA iS BY FAR THE MOST dOMiNANT, FOLLOwEd BY THE REST

OF ASiA .

AqUACULTURE pROdUCT iON

BY REG iON 2010

pROdUCT iON FOR d iRECT

HUMAN CONSUMpT iON*

iN M iLL iON TONNES

KEY POINTS

AqUACULTURE CApTURE

63.6

19.3

44.3

67.2

55.7

11.5

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

* 2011 figures calculated from Table 1 FAO (2012). (Assumes all aquaculture production is directly consumed)

Marine

Inland

1

CURRENT STATE 02.01Ref.

CONT iNENT pROdUCT iON 2010 (T )

China 36,734,215

Asia (Excl. China) 16,566,942

Europe 2,523,179

South America 1,883,134

Africa 1,288,320

North America 693,294

Oceania 183,516

61.4%22.7%

0.3%

2.2%

4.2%

3.1%

1.2%

Source: FAO (2012)

BR IEF ING PA PER 02 / SUSTA INING AqUACULT URE GROwT h

CONTRiBUT iON TO Gdp

pROdUCT iON iNTENSiTY

2

KiLOGRAMS pER

SqUARE K i LOMETER

pERCENT Gdp

SOME SMALLER COUNTRiES HAvE ESpEC iALLY iNTENSE pROdUCT iON

(BANGLAdESH, EGYpT, v iETNAM, ECUAdOR).

A RELAT ivELY SMALL CONTRiBUT iON TO MOST ECONOMiES, BUT

wiTH SOME ExCEpT iONS iN AGRiCULTURE dEpENdENT ECONOMiES

ExpERiENC iNG RApid GROwTH (E .G . BANGLAdESH ANd v iETNAM).

KEY POINTS

Source: Institute of Aquaculture using FAO and CIA data sources

Source: Institute of Aquaculture using FAO and CIA data sources

0 – 25

25 – 50

50 – 100

100 – 250

250 – 500

500 – 1,000

1,000 – 2,500

> 2,500

Zero or missing data

< 0.1

0.1 – 0.25

0.25 – 0.5

0.5 – 1

1 – 2.5

2.5 – 5

> 5

Zero or missing data

AqUACULTURE pROdUCT iON BY CULTURE ENviRONMENT

pROpORT iON OF pROdUCT iON

66%+of total production involves some feeding

3

dOMiNANT SpEC iES GROUpS

Salmon dominate diadromous fish production, followed by milkfish

Carps dominate freshwater fish production, followed by tilapias

Clams dominate mollusc production, followed by oysters

White leg shrimp dominate brackishwater production

1

2

3

4

THE pREdOMiNANT pROdUCT iON SYSTEMS ARE EARTHEN

pONdS (FRESH ANd BRACKiSHwATER), FOLLOwEd BY OFF BOTTOM

CULTURE SYSTEMS FOR MOLLUSCS.

AN iNCREASiNG pROpORT iON OF pROdUCT iON iS ACHiEvEd

wiTH FEEdS.

Calculated from data used in Hall et al. (2011) Source: FAO (2012)

FRESHwATER MA iNLY F iSH

BRACKiSHwATER MA iNLY SHR iMpS/pRAwNS

MARiNE MA iNLY MOLLUSCS

Freshwater fishes

Crustaceans

Diadromous fishes

Other species

Crustaceans

Freshwater fishes

Diadromous fishes

Marine fishes

Molluscs

Molluscs

Diadromous fishes

Marine fishes

Crustaceans

Miscellaneous animals

2010

1

3

4

2010

1

3

4

2010

1

2

3 4

BOTTOM CULTURE

CAGES & pENS

OFF-BOTTOM CULTURE

pONdS

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%6%

9%

48%

37%

02.02Ref.


TRENdS ANd ExPECTAT IONSWhat are the current trends in aquaculture production and what is the evidence for this? / How are current trends expected to evolve in the coming decade?

CURRENT TRENdS

> Aquaculture has been the fastest growing animal production sector for the last four decades, but growth is slowing. > The proportion of marine culture is falling relative to freshwater. Marine share of total aquaculture produc-tion fell from 34% to 30% between 2006 and 2011. > Prices are rising.

The total market for aquaculture products will rise and the sector is likely to grow to meet this demand.

Areas with lower growth rates may encourage the sector to seek economies of scale; areas with faster growth rates may see new entrants and greater commercial risk taking.

Key input costs (feed, fertilizer, power, fuel) are likely to rise, driving efforts to greater efficiency.

Shrimp, salmon, tilapia, pangasius, sea bass and bream are likely to consolidate their dominance, but there is room for many niche products to fit local cultures.

Small and medium enterprises will continue to dominate the sector.

LiKELY FUTURE TRENdS

AqUACULTURE pROdUCT iON GROwTH RATE

wORLd AqUACULTURE vALUE dEvELOpMENT(NOMiNAL T ERMS)

4

1981 –

1990

1991 –

2000

2001 –

2010

2011 –

2020dECAdE

10

8

6

4

2

0

GR (%)

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

2000 2010 2020

YEAR

3000

2000

1000

0

US$ TRiLL iON

pROdUCTiON (MiLL iON TONNES)

YEAR

assume no growth in fisheries

assume fisheries grow at 0.7% p.a.

Production forecast (Hall et al., 2011)

Global consumption rises to 22.5 kg/y

Total fish trade

Technological advances in aquaculture

Baseline scenario

Ecological collapse of fisheries

Global consumption remains at 1996 levels (15.6 kg/y)

Aquaculture

Capture

Production targets (national data)

Wijkstrom (2003)

FAO (2004)

IFPRI (2003)

Ye (1999)

Source: OECD-FAO (2011)

Source: Hall et al. (2011)

Circles denote projections of future aquaculture production based on various supply and demand assumptions.

Source: OECD-FAO (2011)

KEY UNCERTA INT IESWhat are the key uncertainties surrounding conclusions about the current state of aquaculture? / How do these uncertainties differ by geographic region or aquaculture sector? / What are the key uncertainties that will affect likely futures for the sector?

02.03Ref.

FEEd USE iN CH iNA

HOw SOON wiLL CH iNA ANd SE ASiA MOvE

AwAY FROM LOw TROpHiC SpEC iES

TOwARdS THOSE dEpENdENT ON FEEdS?

> Traditional carp species continue to make up the majority of aquaculture production, but the culture of other freshwater finfish species is growing rapidly.

CATASTROpHiC LOSS TO diSEASE

wHERE ANd wHEN wiLL THE NExT MAjOR

diSEASE CRiS iS OCCUR? / HOw qUiCKLY

CAN wE ExpECT TECHNOLOGiCAL BREAK-

THROUGHS iN diSEASE pREvENT iON

(vACC iNE dEvELOpMENT)?

> Chile: salmon production fell 50% between 2007 and 2010 due to infectious salmon anaemia (ISA). > Shrimp: in 1996 direct and indirect costs attributa-ble to shrimp viral diseases was US$3 billion annually ~40% of the total production capacity.> Significant losses can occur in most types of system although they may not be as noticeable in more exten-sive systems.

FEEd TECHNOLOGiES

HOw qUiCKLY CAN wE ExpECT TECHNO-

LOGiCAL BREAKTHROUGHS iN FEEdS

(REdUC iNG dEpENdENCY ON F iSH OiLS)?

> Availability and price of fish oil will continue to rise without suitable and economically viable substitutes (plants or microalgae). > In tandem with the need by the livestock sector as a whole, innovation here will have a major influence on future development – it could happen quickly.

> Closer integration of fish waste streams and by-product use is also occurring, which will further reduce dependency on other feed sources.

CERT iF iCAT iON ANd ACCOUNTABiL iT Y

MECHANiSMS

HOw FAST ANd HOw FAR wiLL

CERT iF iCAT iON dEvELOp?

> An increasing (but still small) level of certification, but the certification processes are under pressure from a range of stakeholders.> The limitations of farm-only certification are becoming clear (major environmental impacts in off-farm parts of the value chain, e.g. feed ingredients). > Several food scandals (e.g. “horse-meat” in Europe) have increased focus on supply chain management. > Issues of labour rights and ethics are becoming more prominent.

iNdUSTRY CONSOLidAT iON

HOw FAST ANd HOw FAR wiLL SECTOR

CONSOLidAT iON GO?

> With very few exceptions, aquaculture still lacks the scale that might support the significant costs of innovation (e.g. breeding programmes). > Consolidation into larger business models to develop and sustain such technology development can be expected, but how far this will go is unclear.

5


ENviRONMENTAL pERFORMANCE, SOC iAL pERFORMANCE ANd FOOd SAFETY

ENvIRONmENTAL PERfORmANCE> A process of improving traceability of all products is underway for almost all trade between the global South and North, and environmental certification is increasing.> A major issue is differentiating the value of products from very diverse systems:

> Small scale less intensive producers have potentially fewer environmental costs, but cannot afford to certify, are inherently more difficult to trace and often suffer from weak governance.> Intensive producers often have higher environmental costs, but are more likely to be traceable and certifiable under current norms.

SOC IAL PERfORmANCE> Recent ethical labour issues concerning shrimp processing using illegal migrant labour in Thailand is an example of the type of social issue that will need to be addressed by the sector.

fOOd SAfETY> Sourcing of feed ingredients may become a critical food safety issue in the future. For example, current oversight levels by European supermarkets disallow GMOs, and UK supermarkets refuse inclusion of feather meal, a common feed ingredient, in diets.

FEEdS

> A tightening of feed supplies globally, particularly in the light of expected climate change predictions

and growth in demand make innovation in this area crucial.> There is expected to be increasing pressure on pre-mium grade fishmeal and oils, making the search for compatible products to spare their use more urgent. > Closer integration of fisheries and aquaculture in terms of by-product use is a certainty; one major challenge is the retention and processing of geograph-ically dispersed ‘wastes’ for value addition. > Innovations in soy could be transformative. These include post-harvest processing (soy protein con-centrates) and genomics and plant breeding. Such developments, and similar progress on other plant sources, will reduce pressure on marine derived feed ingredients.

THE pOLiCY ENviRONMENT

> The state of property rights and risk aversion is probably a key reason for the relative lack of ‘external’ investment in aquaculture in developing countries. The most developed corporate models have only occurred where property rights are clear and/or have been negotiated to provide exclusive access. > Where private sector investment does occur, a key question is whether it will lead to intensive produc-tion for commodity markets that has negative con-sequences for the parallel development of the more diversified, extensive approaches that are currently persisting, and indeed expanding.> Appropriate policy and support services that will encourage and sustain small and medium enterprise aquaculture in developing countries will be key to ensuring sector investment and growth.

6

02.04Ref.KEYISSUESWhat are the key issues that need to be addressed to improve aquaculture sector governance and production practices to sustain sector growth? / Do these issues differ for different parts of the aquaculture sector? / Why is this?

ONE STOp SHOp MOdELS

The Sidai one-stop shop model is showing promise in supporting smallholder livestock farmers and herders in East Africa. The use of one-stop shops has been demonstrated for aquaculture in Asia but further development could be informed by assessment of this African-based innovation in social enterprise.

http://www.farmafrica.org/kenya/sidai

ExTENSiF iCAT iON

Extensification of aquaculture is a growing trend in a number of contexts, from integration with agricul-tural irrigation to the ranching of aquatic animals, and coastal seaweed and bivalve production. Risk aversion and health management concerns have also increased the use of polyculture for export orientated production.

vALUE CHAiNS L iNKiNG dEvEL-OpiNG COUNTRY pROdUCERS TO NEw MARKETS

Private sector investment has resulted in the building of a large and still growing market in the US (cur-rently tilapia is the 4th most popular seafood). The momentum, begun by companies such as Regal Springs in Indonesia and Honduras, has resulted in Latin America becoming a hub for supplying the North American market with fresh product, and a much larger market for frozen fillets is developing in Asia, principally China.

http://www.regalsprings.com/tag/indonesia

pUBLiC pRivATE iNvESTMENTS iN ETHiCAL vALUE CHAiNS

WAB trading, a German-based SME has developed internal control systems that now support traceable organic shrimp production with thousands of farmers in Bangladesh, allowing access to premium markets for high quality products.

7

02.05Ref.SUCCESSES

Are there any examples or promising approaches that illustrate the ways in which problems in this area have been successfully addressed?


8

REfERENCES ANd RELATEd REAdING

02.06Ref.

Anderson, J. L. 2007. Aquaculture and fisheries: complement or competition. Global trade conference on aquaculture No. 9:231-236.

Bostock, J. C., B. McAndrew, R. Richards, K. Jauncey, T. C. Telfer, K. Lorenzen, D. C. Little, L. G. Ross, N. Handisyde, I. Gatward, and R. Corner. 2010. Aquaculture: global status and trends. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B 365:2897-2912.

Brugère, C., and N. Ridler. 2004. Global aquaculture outlook in the next decades: an analysis of national aquaculture production forecast to 2030. FAO Fish-eries Circular No. 1001 47pp.

FAO. 2004. Future prospects for fish and fishery products: medium-term projections to the years 2010 and 2015. FAO Fisheries Circular FIDI/972-1.

FAO. 2012. The state of world fisheries and aquacul-ture (SOFIA) - 2012. 230pp.

Hall, S. J., A. Delaporte, M. J. Phillips, M. Beveridge, and M. O’Keefe. 2011. Blue Frontiers: Managing the Environmental Costs of Aquaculture. The WorldFish Center, Penang, Malaysia.

IFPRI. 2003. Fish to 2020. Supply and demand in changing global markets. IFPRI, Washington DC.

Muir, J., D. C. Little, J. A. Young, and J. C. Bostock. 2009. Growing the wealth of aquaculture: perspec-tives and potential. 46pp.

OECD. 2010. Globalization in fisheries and aquacul-ture: Opportunities and challenges. 157pp.

OECD/FAO. 2011. Agricultural Outlook 2011 - Fish. OECD Publishing, Wijkstróm, U. N. 2003. Short and long-term prospects for consumption of fish. Veteri-nary Research Communications 27:461-468.

Wijkstróm, U. N. 2003. Short and long-term prospects for consumption of fish. Veterinary Research Communications 27(suppl. 1):461-468.

Ye, Y. 1999. Historical consumption and future demand for fish and fishery products: Exploratory calculations for the years 2015/2030. FAO Fisheries Circular 946.

BRiEF iNG pApERS

01 SUSTA iN iNG F iSH STOCKS

What are the key levers for improving capture fisheries governance to sustain the resource base – how do these change for different types of fishery?

02 SUSTA iN iNG AqUACULTURE GROwTH


03 COpiNG wiTH CL iMATE CHANGE

How can we climate proof our fish production systems?

04 THE wEALTH TO wELFARE CONT iNUUM

What economic roles are wild capture fisheries best placed to play and under what circumstances?

05 THE FUTURE OF dEMANd

How will the demand for fish evolve and what are the implications of anticipated changes?

06 MEET iNG NEEdS

How can the fish food system best meet the needs of poor consumers to address food and nutrition security challenges?

ALL BR iEF iNG pApERS ARE AvA iLABLE FOR dOwNLOAd AT

www.F iSH iNGFUTURE .ORGPdf

pLEASE SENd ALL COMMENTS TO Bp.FEEdBACK@F iSH iNGFUTURE .ORG

www.F iSH iNGFUTURE .ORG

F iSHERiES ANd AqUACULTURE

iN THE 21ST CENTURY:

AN iN iT iAT ivE FOR GLOBAL ACT iON

iN iT iAT ivE SECRETARiAT:

Dr. Stephen J. HallWorldFish, Penang, MalaysiaEmail: [email protected]

Andreas SchafferThe Earth Observatory of Singapore, SingaporeEmail: [email protected]

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sustaining aquaculture · pdf file · 2013-10-13sustaining aquaculture growth 02...

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