sustainable water futures: think.€¦ · sustainable water futures: integrated supply demand...
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Sustainable water futures: integrated supply demand planning
THINK. CHANGE. DO
INSTITUTE FOR SUSTAINABLE FUTURES
Stuart White & Andrea Turner Master Class – Global Trends in Water Efficiency Thursday 27 June 2014
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Introduction
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Presentation overview
> Integrated resource planning (supply demand planning)
> Example: Sydney, Australia > Examples: Alexandria, Egypt > Example: Salalah, Oman > The future of water infrastructure
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Urban water supply-demand planning
• Detailed demand forecast
• Long-term supply estimate
• Consideration of the full range of supply & demand options
o Large-scale source of supply o Demand management & decentralised supply (stormwater, reuse)
• Assessment of supply & demand options on an equal basis
• Develop a plan to balance supply & demand taking account of costs, uncertainties, sustainability impacts & other policy goals
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System yield
System demand
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Sydney water demand
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Germany water demand
Schleich and Hillenbrand, Fraunhofer Institute, 2007
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Stock models - toilets
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ow [M
L / a
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Time [Year]
Water flow associated with toilet flushing
Stock models - toilets
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Example supply curve - relative unit cost of options
Typical supply costs
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Typical costs - Perth
Source or option Yield (GL/year)
Capital cost ($m)
Operating cost ($m/a)
Unit cost (¢/kL)
Typical water efficiency options 30-50 80-100 2-5 15-40
Eglinton groundwater 17 47 3.2 37
Wellington Dam (no treatment) 15 25 3.8 36
Wellington Dam (with treatment) 15 55 6.2 66
Southern Perth Basin Stage 1 41 325 7.7 71
Gingin groundwater option 60 300 24 73
Kwinana Waterlink Reuse 5 20 2.5 100
Desalination 30 205 20 112
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Case study: Sydney
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Supply demand balance - Sydney
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Tota
l Sup
ply
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and
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a)
WELS/Appliance standards BASIX Recycling Pressure and Leakage Reduction Non-residential sector Outdoor Residential Indoor Residential
Base case demand
Available Supply Reduced available supply with potential Warragamba environmental flows
Drought restricted demand
Projected demand (demand lower than supply gives surplus)
http://www.urbanwaterirp.net.au/
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Relative contribution to supply and demand
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Real options analysis
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Case study: Alexandria
Integrated supply-demand planning for Alexandria, Egypt, 2011
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Alexandria, Egypt M
m3 /a
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Case study: Salalah
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Cumulative savings/ supply and cumulative cost
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Groundwater modelling results
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Groundwater modelling results
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Groundwater modelling results
Return to map
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Impact of large scale augmentation
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Sydney Sydney Perth Perth Adelaide Adelaide
Ener
gy In
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ity (k
Wh/
kL) Inter-basin
transfer - Shoalhaven
Desalination plant
Inter-basin transfer – Murray River
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1. Unmanaged
2. Centralised
3. Transitional (neo-centralised)
4. Emerging … (Efficient, decentralised), integrated, fit-for-purpose)
Four generations of water infrastructure
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The economics of generational change
Relative cost per household
First
Second
Third
Fourth
Generations
We are here
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ONE CENTRAL PARK
ONE CENTRAL PARK 623 apartments 5 level retail/lifestyle centre Cantilever and heliostat Ateliers Jean Nouvel/PTW Architects Lighting by Yann Kersale Living walls by Patrick Blanc
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HISTORICAL GLOBAL SOURCES OF P FERTILIZERS
Cordell et al, 2009
Most manure was recycled; Human waste
recycled in China; No such thing as
synthetic or processed fertilizer.
Repeated famines and soil degradation in Europe triggered
use of other sources of fertilizers (guano,
ground bone).
Rapid population growth, urbanisation, intensive
agriculture and the Green Revolution => increase in
fertilizer production. Recycling organic nutrients
dramatically decreases
Discovery of phosphate rock.
Nutrients - phosphorus
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Looking to the future…
Widespread application of Integrated Resource Planning ‘Fourth Generation’ distributed water infrastructure Best practice drought response strategies – ‘real options’ Recognition of water-energy nexus Smart metering, with Smart Feedback Nutrient recovery Community engagement in decision-making
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Institute for Sustainable Futures www.isf.uts.edu.au
www.urbanwaterirp.net.au www.phosphorusfutures.net