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Sustainable use of the seabed around the UK
Prof. Mike Cowling
Chief Scientist
Contents
• Role of the Marine Estate
• Activities in UK waters
• The Carbon economy
• Marine renewable energies
• Carbon capture & storage
• Sustainability
• Total economic value
• Conclusions
UK 12 nm Limit
UK Continental Shelf
88 million hectares of seabed22,000 km coastline
Role of the Marine Estate• The Crown Estate is a public body
• Owns and manages ~50% UK foreshore and almost all seabed out to 12nm
• Energy and mineral rights out to 200nm
• Operates under The Crown Estate Act 1961
• Duty to maintain and enhance the value of the estate and return from it
• Due regard for principles of good management
• Stewardship is a Core value
• The Crown Estate is not in any sense a Regulator for activities on its estate
Role of the Marine Estate• The Crown Estate is a public body
• Owns and manages ~50% UK foreshore and almost all seabed out to 12nm
• Energy and mineral rights out to 200nm
• Operates under The Crown Estate Act 1961
• Duty to maintain and enhance the value of the estate and return from it
• Due regard for principles of good management
• Stewardship is a Core value
• The Crown Estate is not in any sense a Regulator for activities on its estate
Role of the Marine Estate• The Crown Estate is a public body
• Owns and manages ~50% UK foreshore and almost all seabed out to 12nm
• Energy and mineral rights out to 200nm
• Operates under The Crown Estate Act 1961
• Duty to maintain and enhance the value of the estate and return from it
• Due regard for principles of good management
• Stewardship is a Core value
• The Crown Estate is not in any sense a Regulator for activities on its estate
Principal activities in UK waters
Oil & Gas
Shipping
Fisheries
Aquaculture
Water
Oil & Gas
Shipping
Renewables
CD & FP
Mining
Oil & Gas
Shipping
Renewables
CD & FP
Telecoms
Fisheries
Water
Shipping
Oil & Gas
CD & FP
Mining
Defence
Telecoms
Shipping
Defence
Fisheries
CD & FP
Oil & Gas
Fisheries
Aquaculture
Shipping
Telecoms
Telecoms
Fisheries
Shipping
Aquaculture
Fisheries
Annex 2. Key activities within each region and trends in since 2003 in economic value (purple) and environmental pressures (blue). Arrows indicate either an increase, no change or fluctuating (up and down). The width of the arrow reflects the relative degree of change (i.e. more or less than 50% change).
UKMMAS: Productive Seas Evidence Group – Feeder Report for ‘Charting Progress 2’ Draft
The Carbon economy
Transition from a Solar to a Carbon Economy (i)
©The National Gallery, London
‘The Fighting Temeraire’ JMW Turner 1838
From distinguished service at Trafalgar to breaker’s yard at Rotherhithe
Transition from a Solar to a Carbon Economy (ii)
Edinburgh University Press2001ISBN-10: 0748612831
• First real census 1841• UK population ~20m• 2008: 61.4m 2033: 71.6m• Plus carbon intensification of
everyday lifeSources:Julie Jeffrieshttp://www.statistics.gov.uk/downloads/theme_compendia/fom2005/01_FOPM_Population.pdfONShttp://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=1352
Adrian Gault – Chief Economist CCC, UKNEE/LSE Nov’09
Sustainability in the business
Adrian Gault – Chief Economist CCC, UKNEE/LSE Nov’09
The potential contribution of CCS
Source: http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Resource/Doc/270737/0080597.pdf
Adrian Gault, Chief Economist, Committee on Climate Change, see:http://www.eftec.co.uk/UKNEE/Seminars/2009_documents/Seminar3_2009_Gault_presentation.pdf
Marine renewable energy
UK 12 nm Limit
UK Continental Shelf
88 million hectares of seabed22,000 km coastline
UK 12 nm Limit
UK Continental Shelf
Bathymetry
Shallow
Deep
Round 1 Windfarm Lease
UK 12 nm Limit
UK Continental Shelf
Bathymetry
Shallow
Deep
Round 1 Windfarm Lease
Round 2 Windfarm Lease
UK 12 nm Limit
UK Continental Shelf
Bathymetry
Shallow
Deep
Round 1 Windfarm Lease
Round 2 Windfarm Lease
Round 3 Zone
UK 12 nm Limit
UK Continental Shelf
Bathymetry
Shallow
Deep
Round 1 Windfarm Lease
Round 2 Windfarm Lease
Round 3 Zone
Scottish Windfarm Exclusivity Agreement
UK 12 nm Limit
UK Continental Shelf
Bathymetry
Shallow
Deep
Round 1 Windfarm Lease
Round 2 Windfarm Lease
Round 3 Zone
Scottish Windfarm Exclusivity Agreement
Pentland Firth Area of Interest
UK 12 nm Limit
UK Continental Shelf
Bathymetry
Shallow
Deep
Round 1 Windfarm Lease
Round 2 Windfarm Lease
Round 3 Zone
Scottish Windfarm Exclusivity Agreement
Pentland Firth Area of Interest
Dredging Licence
UK 12 nm Limit
UK Continental Shelf
Bathymetry
Shallow
Deep
Round 1 Windfarm Lease
Round 2 Windfarm Lease
Round 3 Zone
Scottish Windfarm Exclusivity Agreement
Pentland Firth Area of Interest
Dredging Licence
UK 12 nm Limit
UK Continental Shelf
Bathymetry
Shallow
Deep
Pentland Firth Development Sites
The Scottish Government Saltire Prize - Consultation locations
Round 1 and 2 extensions to power 1.4 million homes (Press Release Tuesday 11th May 2010)
The Crown Estate has today announced an additional 2GW of capacity from the Round 1 and 2 project extensions, which would be enough electricity to meet the needs of up to 1.4 million homes in the UK. Three Round 1 and Round 2 offshore windfarm operators have been selected to extend five sites, creating an additional 1.7GW. In addition, a further 340MW has been offered to increase capacity within the current Round 1 and 2 site areas for two other projects. These awards will help to provide a stable flow of construction projects to the offshore wind supply chain in advance of Round 3.
Operator name Original project
name
Extension project
name
Capacity Area
SSE Renewables and RWE
Npower Renewables
Greater Gabbard Galloper Wind Farm 504 MW 174.9
km2
Vattenfall Wind Power Kentish Flats Kentish Flats 2 51 MW 8.3 km2
Vattenfall Wind Power Thanet Thanet 2 147 MW 17.2 km2
Dong Wind UK Burbo Bank Burbo Bank Extension 234 MW 39.7 km2
Dong Wind UK Walney Walney Extension 750MW 146.2
km2
Scottish Government SEA – Offshore wind (i)
• New consultation 19th May 2010• Existing 10 sites in STW can
proceed, with mitigation• Proposes further 25 sites for
2020-2030• Consultation closes 16th August
http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2010/05/14155353/0
Scottish Government SEA – Offshore wind (ii)
Short term developments Medium term proposals
Offshore Wind Supply Chain
http://www.thecrownestate.co.uk/newscontent/92-uk-supply-chain-events.htm
UK Offshore Wind Report 2010
http://www.thecrownestate.co.uk/uk_offshore_wind_report_2010.pdf
The Green Energy Decade
Information from Developers forward plans and projected capacity
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Round 3
Scottish Territorial
Waters
Potential Demo Sites
Round 1 and 2 (including extensions)
Cumulative Installed MW
Opportunity for generating capacity from all current leasing rounds
Year
Cu
mu
lati
ve(M
W)
An
nu
al (
MW
)
Phasing
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Cap
acit
y (M
W)
Round 3 programme delivery curves
MW of project approvals
MW of OFTO Tenders
MW of Planning Applications
MW of KPC granted
MW of Leases Signed
MW of Project Construction started
MW of Project Installations Complete
Year
Volume of Turbines
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Potential Number of turbines required annually (3.6MW vs 6MW)
Nu
mb
er
of
Turb
ine
s
Year
Installations vs. water depth
Foundation type will depend on water depth and will vary significantly, including : mono-piles; jackets; TLP’s; shallow moored floating
UK & European dimensions
http://www.thecrownestate.co.uk/round3_supply_chain_gap_analysis.pdf
UK Installations
http://www.thecrownestate.co.uk/round3_supply_chain_gap_analysis.pdf
Europe vs. UK Installation
http://www.thecrownestate.co.uk/round3_supply_chain_gap_analysis.pdf
Demand for Ports and Harbours
Illustration courtesy of BVG Associates
European Ports
http://www.thecrownestate.co.uk/round3_supply_chain_gap_analysis.pdf
Carbon Capture & Storage (CCS)
42
UK Emitters and Potential Clusters
Source: IEA Greenhouse Gas R&D Programme
Cluster Region CO2 volume
Humber 60Mt
Thames 28Mt
Scotland 18Mt
Teesside 11Mt
Liverpool Bay 10Mt
Scotland
Teesside
Humber
Thames
Liverpool Bay
Jim Ward – National Grid
CCS – Sources of information
http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Resource/Doc/270737/0080597.pdfhttp://www1.ipcc.ch/pdf/special-reports/srccs/srccs_wholereport.pdf
Capture Technologies• Current UK Demonstration is for post-combustion capture
• Separation of CO2 from flue gas
• Two leading technologies
• Both to be fully evaluated at European CO2 Technology Centre, Mongstad, Norway http://www.regjeringen.no/en/dep/oed/Subject/carbon-capture-
and-storage/mongstad-ccs-project.html?id=502210
• Scottish Power already
trialling one system at Longannet
Transportation of CO2
• UK has long-established offshore oil & gas industry which handles pressurised gas in large volumes on a daily basis
• Similar issues are addressed in the wider chemical processing industry
• Regulatory environment is strong
• Certification and inspection regime is well established
• Health & Safety record is good
• There are minor issues regarding purity of CO2
• New significant risks?
Injection of CO2
• Requires seabed oilfield well technology
• O&G industry has been injecting CO2 to produce oil, over a long period
• Regulatory environment is strong
• Certification and inspection regime is well established
• Health & Safety record is good
• New risks?
CCS in Action
http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Resource/Doc/270737/0080597.pdf
Storage of CO2 (i)
Storage of CO2 (ii)
http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Resource/Doc/270737/0080597.pdf
• Indicates oil & gas fields and aquifers
• Indicates potential issue of trans-boundary migration
CO2 Phases
http://www1.ipcc.ch/pdf/special-reports/srccs/srccs_annex1.pdf
• CO2 will be liquid when injected
• Viscosity similar to oil
Storage of CO2 (iii)• Storage is in pores between grains in sandstone formations
• No ‘lake’ of free liquid CO2
• Pressure is required to drive liquid through the porous rock & limits capacity
• Migration is slow
http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Resource/Doc/270737/0080597.pdf
Storage of CO2 (iv)
• 4 types of trapping
• Stability increases with time
• Ultimately formsCalcium carbonate
http://www1.ipcc.ch/pdf/special-reports/srccs/srccs_wholereport.pdf
Storage of CO2 (v)
Injection since 1996
12 years data
>10m tonnes
Dispersion speed now as 2006
No leakage to surface
Typical timescales associated with CCS
Years10 50 70
Injection
Consent & Development
Post closureClosure
Geological storage
10,000 yrs
1m years
10m yearsOil & gas
Natural CO2
CCS
Time (logarithmic scale)
Natural geological accumulations of CO2 occur widely throughout Europe and the world – some leakEU NASCENT project
Monitoring
CCS Risks• Storage typically ~2000m below seabed• EU Directive requires containment within a
geological formation (site)• Directive also requires the site to be within a
geologically-sound complex• Double barrier against leakage• Increased capacity to monitor• Extremely unlikely that CO2 will reach the seabed• Small amounts of CO2 at seabed unlikely to have
measurable effect
Costs
Stern Review, Ch9
http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/sternreview_index.htm
58
CCS Coal – Costs Comparable to Wind
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Large barrage
(Cardiff-
Weston,
8.6GW)
Small barrage
(Shoots 1.1GW)
Offshore wind Coal CCS Onshore wind Nuclear
p/k
Wh
Figure: Levelised cost at social discount rate for low-carbon technologies built in 2020
Source: CCC calculations based on DECC (2009) Partial impact assessment of Severn Tidal Power shortlisted schemes, IPCC (2005) Special report on CCS , DECC capital and operating cost assumptions.
Source: Committee on Climate Change Oct 09 Jim Ward – National Grid
CCS Summary (i)
• CO2 is stored as a pressurised liquid within pores in porous rocks
• Potential offshore UK capacity is very large
• Capacity limited by pressure in geological formation
• Public perception is very important
CCS Summary (ii)• Substantial and improving capability to monitor
• No indication of significant potential for a catastrophic event (c/w subsea volcanic eruption)
•EU Directive requires storage site within outer complex arrangement
• Regulator has to be satisfied that CO2 will be contained within the (inner) site
Eruption of West Mata volcano on seafloor near Fiji in 4,000 feet of water, May 2009(NOAA)
Marine Bio-energy
• Macro-algae = seaweeds• SAMS Report; Kelly et al• 27 recommendationshttp://copyright.thecrownestate.co.uk/CECopyright/Default.aspx?DocID=marine_biomass_anaerobic_biogas.pdf
• Marine bio-fuels: tertiary source of energy in Scottish Government renewables frameworkhttp://www.scotland.gov.uk/Resource/Doc/917/0066300.pdf
Macro-algae Bioenergy
• Large-scale use of natural stocks is unsustainable• Farming needs to be focused on an energy industry, rather than diversification of aquaculture• Various studies recommended large pilot trials• Focus needs to be on total value chain• Total potential for UK significant but distant• ~700 Petajoules pa?
• UK stakeholder workshop 8th June 2010
Sustainability: now and future direction
Guiding Principles of Sustainable Development
– agreed across UK governments (Defra, 2005)
Sustainability in The Crown Estate business –Aspiration (1)
• CR strategy – “ ... we therefore aim … to secure a sustainable future.”
• Subscribe to the UK ‘shared principles’ of SD
• Desire to understand the sustainability of operations to include as a decision tool
• Wish to assess sustainability alongside ‘suitability’ of a
site / activity
• Wish to understand sustainability of an activity / project when making case for investment
Sustainability in the business – Reality (2)
• Sustainability will be traded with financial return
• (Required by The Crown Estate Act to generate a return on the assets)
Sustainability in the business – Aspiration (3)The 2 Parameter approach
Acceptable values?
No–go zones?
Need to incorporate risk-based approach
Increasing sustainability
Sustainability in the business – Reality (4)
• Need to be able to compare disparate activities
• Eg. Compare Aquaculture to CCS to Offshore wind
Sustainability – now & future
Goals
To ensure ecosystem integrity over the long term.
To mitigate the impact of climate change.
To adapt sensitively and appropriately to the effects of climate change.
To promote and support a dynamic and sustainable maritime economy.
To respect the right of future generations to the use of present resources.
To enhance community wellbeing.
To enjoy the support, trust and enthusiasm of local communities.
Indicators
1. Effective monitoring and management of the marine environment
1. Impact on habitats and species
3. Greenhouse gases emitted and displaced
4. Adaptation-specific activities
5. Employment generated
6. Value added
7. Durability
8. Use of non-renewable resources
9. Security of energy supply
10. Education and understanding
11. Net social benefits
12. Public acceptability
Sustainability – now & future
• Indicators
2. Impacts on habitats and species
Measures
2.1 Effects of noise2.2 Incidence of pollution2.3 Physical damage to
features and biotopes2.4 Recovery of marine
and coastal habitats and communities
Sustainability – now & future• Measures
• 2.1 Effects of noise
• 2.3 Physical damage to features and biotopes
Metrics
• Behavioural and physiological effects on coastal and marine mammals, birds and fish associated with construction and operational noise
• Observed damage to the seabed, the coastline; consequences for benthic organisms and coastal communities
7 goals, 12 indicators, 22 measures, 35 metrics per activity
Sustainability: now and future directionSustainable development principles -agreed across UK govts
Living w
ithin
en
viron
me
ntal lim
its
Stron
g, health
y &
just so
ciety
Sustain
able
econ
om
yG
oo
d
govern
ance
Usin
g sou
nd
scien
ce
• Ecosystem integrity• Climate change mitigation• Climate change adaptation• Dynamic economy• Resources for future generations• Community well-being• Support of local communities
7 Goals 12 Indicators
-Effective monitoring- Impacts on habitats & Species
- Greenhouse gases
- Adaptations
- Jobs- Value added- Durability
- Use of resources - Energy security
- Education- Net social benefits
- Public acceptability
22 Measures----
35 Metrics per activity---------------
Future Goals – a Portfolio Approach
• Not easy for any complex business to be totally ‘green’
• Sustainability is an aggregation of criteria, hence there will be infinite combinations of measurements, good and less good
• Included in MaRShttp://www.thecrownestate.co.uk/mars
• Goal is to improve sustainability of the total portfolio with time
Sustainability
Financial Return0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
Strand AStrand B
Strand C
Current activities clustered in this
ellipse
Where the Marine Estate
would like activities to be
clustered in 2020
Sustainability: now and future direction
Sustainability: now and future direction• Current examples which show granularity of issues in the portfolio• Marine aggregate extraction:
- a good score for extent of environmental monitoring and biodiversity action plans
- a relatively poor score for CO2
- a poor score for use of natural resources• Aquaculture:
- a modest score for public acceptability- a low score for climate change adaptation and use of
resources- a high score for value added and durability
• Offshore wind (Round 1):- a poor score for UK jobs (thus far) - a modest score for environmental impact- a good score for use of resources
Total Economic Value• Ecosystem Goods & Services approach
Defra 2007
Flow of ecosystem processes to human welfare benefitsMarine ES Framework
CORE ECOSYSTEM
PROCESSES
Production
Decomposition
Nutrient cycling
Water cycling
Weathering/erosion
Ecological interactions
Evolutionary processes
Food Fisheries
Aquaculture
Fertiliser / Feed
Cooling water
Marine aggregates
Salt
Ornamental materials (shells)
Energy Biofuels
Oil and Gas
Renewable energy
Property
Maritime transport
Space for activities/structures
Medicines
Natural hazard protection
Avoidance of pollution
Avoidance of contamination
Tourism
Recreation / Sport
Spiritual/cultural wellbeing
Aesthetic benefits
Nature watching
Aquariums
Research
Education
Inspiration - art
Other unknown
Knowledge
Psychological/
Social wellbeing
BENEFITS
Space and
waterways
Physical wellbeing
Raw materials
BENEFICIAL ECOSYSTEM
PROCESSES
Biomass production: primary
Biomass production: secondary
Larval/Gamete supply
Biological control
Food web dynamics
Formation of species habitat
Species diversification
Genetic diversification
Waste assimilation
Erosion control
Formation of physical barriers
Formation of space & waterways
Formation of pleasant scenery
Climate regulation
Air quality regulation
Biogeochemical cycling
Water cycling (regulation)
Water purification (quality)
Other unknown
Marine Ecosystem Goods & Services
http://copyright.thecrownestate.co.uk/CECopyright/Default.aspx?DocID=valuing_marine_estate_uk_seas.pdf
Marine Ecosystem Goods & Services
http://copyright.thecrownestate.co.uk/CECopyright/Default.aspx?DocID=valuing_marine_estate_uk_seas.pdf
Conclusions• The seabed around the UK can make a significant contribution to decarbonising the UK economy • This contribution will comprise a number of components• Assessment of sustainability provides additional context for particular industries• Total economic valuations also inform the wider debate about development activities