sustainable transport - will it ever really count?

Will it Ever Really Count?

Prof Greg MarsdenInstitute for Transport Studies

Sustainable Development and Sustainable Transportation


National

Economic System

Global Market

Urban System

Telecommunications

System

Energy/Power

System

Water and Sewage

System

Transportation

SystemLand Use

Institutional

Structure

Infrastructure

System

System Users/

Stakeholders

Transportation

Modes

Intermodal

Connections

Transit Network Highway NetworkNon-motorized

NetworkAirway Network

Source: Adapted from Meyer

and Miller (2001, p. 91).Collectors LocalArterials


Physical

Systems

Production

Consumption

Waste

Raw

MaterialsSolar

Energy HeatRecycled

Materials

ECOSYSTEM

Other …

Energy

Transportation

Communication

Industrial

Source: Adapted from Daly

(1991)


“There can be no sustainable development without sustainable transportation. It is an essential component not only because transportation is a prerequisite to development in general but also because transportation, especially our use of motorized vehicles, contributes substantially to a wide range of environmental problems, including energy waste, global warming, degradation of air and water, noise, ecosystem loss and fragmentation, and desecration of the landscape. Our nation’s environmental quality will be sustainable only if we pursue transportation in a sustainable way” (Benfield and Replogle 2002, p. 647).

Example ImpactsEconomic Environmental Social

• Costs of transport to customers/consumers•Time loss in traffic/ Congestion• Costs relating to accidents

•Transportation facility construction, maintenance and disposal costs

•Transportation-related health costs

•Depletion of non-renewable resources and energy supplies

• Air pollution• Noise pollution• Vibration • Light pollution• Visual intrusion • Water pollution• Consumption of land/urban sprawl• Release of toxic/hazardous substances• Solid waste• Disruption of ecosystems and habitats • Hydrologic impacts• Introduction of exotic species• Depletion of the ozone layer • Global climate change

• Mobility• Accessibility• Accidents• Obesity• Barriers for the disadvantaged•Inequalities associated with impacts

• Community livability

• Gender imbalances• Cohesion/integration• Opportunity • Anxiety/’Rootlessness’ • Migration

Source: Gudmundsson and Cornet


• a critical component of a broader economic system which supports business and social development;

• an open system, which requires natural and man-made inputs and produces outputs which impact on the environment;

• part of a social system that shapes and is shaped by that social system, including other policy areas;

• comprised of a series of physical sub-systems with a range of physical and operational components and which are organized through formal and informal conventions; and

• fragmented series of partly connected yet partly competing sub-systems with complex and varying governance arrangements.

Sustainable TransportationWhere to make it count?

POLICY LEVEL

ORGANIZATIONALLEVEL

PROJECT LEVEL

Source: Gudmundsson and Cornet

European Transport White PaperPolicy Level

• Overarching Aim

to build a competitive transport system that will increase mobility, remove major barriers in key areas and fuel growth and employment. At the same time, the proposals will dramatically reduce Europe's dependence on imported oil and cut carbon emissions in transport by 60% by 2050

Remembering Context

Economic Impacts AssessedImpact Areas Indicators

Economic Impacts

Transport Activity Passenger kilometers and tonne kilometers by all modes.

Modal Shift Share of passenger or tonne kilometers by mode.

Transport costs to users Unit cost per passenger or tonne transported (including capital costs, fixed operation

costs and variable fuel and non-fuel costs).

Economic growth Qualitative inference of policy impacts on GDP only.

Efficiency of the transport

system

Not defined but incorporates notions of smart pricing, efficient networks, fuel efficiency

and vehicle purchase costs.

Congestion Average speed and use of available road capacity.

Household costs The share of passenger transport costs within the household income of the average EU

household.

Transport related sectors Not defined but qualitative inference of the potential of the strategies to support the

European vehicle manufacturing industry.

Innovation and research Not defined but qualitative inference about the impact of the strategy on research spend

on green innovation.

Reduction of administrative

burden

Not defined but qualitative inference about overall levels of administration.

EU budget Not defined as will be assessed on a case by case basis.

International relations Not defined but qualitative inference about the potential synergies and conflicts with

international organizations.

Social Impacts AssessedImpact Areas Indicators

Social Impacts

Degree of mobility Refers to the % change in total transport activity for passengers with an

overall reduction being negative.

Choice Not defined but qualitative inferences about rail investments improving

choice.

Accessibility Potential accessibility is a generalized cost based measure. Larger areas are

more attractive and cost, time and distance are negative separation factors.

Distributional Impacts Not clearly defined although the analysis refers in part to the distribution of

household costs by income band.

Employment level and

conditions

Number of jobs in the transport sector. Skills and working conditions are not

defined clearly.

Safety External costs of accidents and total number of accidents.

Environmental Impacts Assessed

Impact Areas Indicators

Environmental Impacts

Climate Change Total CO2 emissions from transport. Both transport and well to wheel analyses are

presented.

Air pollution Emissions of NOx and PM10 and external costs of these pollutants.

Noise pollution External costs of noise pollution.

Energy use/energy

efficiency

Total energy demand from transport Millions of Tonnes of Oil Equivalent (reviewed in

detail below). Energy intensity is an efficiency indicator that uses total energy demand

and transport activity to create a ratio for passenger and freight.

Renewable energy

use

Total energy demand split by fossil fuels, biofuels and electricity.

Biodiversity Not defined but qualitatively refers to fragmentation, land-take, loss of biodiversity and

damage to eco-system services.

European Transport White Paper

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

CO2 intensity Energy intensity Activity level Total

Urban Interurban Intercontinental

-44%

-40%

-74%

Passenger transport

33%

31%

120%

-22%

-19%

51%

Mto

n C

O2

0%-11%-10%

Review of Do-Minimum Case

Factors Influencing CO2 emissions

European Transport White PaperPolicy Option 2 Policy Option 3 Policy Option 4

Economic Impacts

Transport Activity -- = -

Modal Shift ++ = +

Transport costs to users --- = --

Economic growth ++ + +++

Efficiency of the transport system ++ + +++

Congestion ++ = +

Household costs -- - --

Transport related sectors + +++ +++

Innovation and research + +++ ++

Reduction of administrative burden + = +

EU budget = = =

International relations -- - -

Social Impacts

Degree of mobility --- = -

Choice ++ = ++

Accessibility ++ = ++

Distributional Impacts = - +

Employment level and conditions ++ ++ +++

Safety ++ = +

Environmental Impacts

Climate Change +++ +++ +++

Air pollution +++ ++ ++

Noise pollution +++ ++ +


• Largest Scale attempt for Sustainable Transport Assessment

• Significant improvement in transparency

• Informs policy package choice (coherence with longer-term goals)

• Positive role as a signal


• Modelling systems not robust• Indicators are so aggregate as to lose meaning• Social context is flattened• Does not really reach out beyond transport• Implementation is largely national

– Is this joined up?

• Only limited signs that constraints are to play a part

• “Curbing Mobility is not an option” – Weak sustainability

High Speed Rail

• Decision taken in same way as other infrastructure projects

• Bespoke Sustainability Appraisal also commissioned

Phase 1 Phase 2 Rolling Stock Total Target Cost 17.16 n/a Estimated Cost 15.65 12.5 5.8 33.95 Contingency 5.75 8.7 1.7 16.15

Total 21.4 21.2 7.5 50.1

Source: Environmental Audit Committee

Towards documents about sustainable transportation (2007, 2008)

Indicators

Greenhouse Gas Emissions

CO2 emissions by end user (industry, transport, domestic, other)

Aviation and shipping emissions

Private Vehicles: CO2 emissions, car-km, and final household expenditure

Road Freight: CO2 emissions, tonne-km, tonnes, and GDP

Road Transport Emissions NOx, PM10, CO2 emissions, and GDP

Emissions of air pollutants

Air Quality and Health

Ecological impacts of air pollution

Mobility

Getting to school

Accessibility

What is HS2 for?

• Never been articulated as part of a sustainable transport strategy

• 2009 SoS Transport Geoff Hoon announced creation of HS2 Limited in a statement to Parliament about expansion of Heathrow

• 2 years previously, the Rail White Paper had said:• “Higher speed is not the only or best way of cutting journey times.

Nor is it without cost. Increasing the maximum speed of a train from 200 km/h to 350 km/h means a 90 per cent increase in energy consumption. In exchange, it cuts station-to-station journey time by less than 25 per cent and door-to-door journey-time by even less. … The argument that high-speed rail travel is a ‘green option’ does not stand up to close inspection on the basis of the present electricity generation mix.” (DfT, 2007b, p. 62).

What is HS2 for?

• The remit of HS2 Limited was subsequently clarified to focus, in order of priority on:

• Passenger capacity: “this is the driving consideration, including capacity released on classic lines”;

• Speed;• Land use and development objectives and the support

of new housing development; and• Developing the line to be capable of handling freight

for greater network resilience.• Modal shift from air to rail was “not expected to be a

key objective for HS2” (Rowlands, 2009).

Sustainability Appraisal

Source: Geisler et al. (2011)

Sustainability Appraisal

Key Sustainability Issue ObjectiveReducing greenhouse gas emissions and combating climate changeClimatic factors and adaptability

Improve resilience of the rail network against extreme weather events

Greenhouse Gases Contribute to the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by facilitating modal shift from road and air to rail

Reduce relative contribution made by rail to greenhouse gas emissions by promoting energy efficient technologies

Natural and cultural resource protection and environmental enhancement Landscape and townscape Maintain and enhance existing landscape character

Maintain and enhance existing townscape character

• 18 sustainability issues

• 33 objectives as shown in Table

• 33 objectives => 66 evaluation criteria

Sustainability AppraisalHS2 Objectives and Option identification process

Option Generation

Scheme Components London

Terminus

Line of

RouteEtc.

Sift 190+ long list options

Review of Operations, Cost

Demand and Engineering HS2 Board

Decision Point 1

Sift 250+ intermediate list options

Appraisal including simplified

Appraisal of Sustainability HS2 Board

Decision Point 2

Sift 3Shortlist of stations and whole routes

Appraisal including full

Appraisal of Sustainability HS2 Board

Decision Point 3

Finalising preferred scheme and main alternatives

Likely Impact of Proposed

HS2

Likely change between the

current baseline and

future baseline

Cumulative Impacts

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions and combating climate change

resilience of the rail network + 0 +

greenhouse gas emissions +/- + +

Natural and cultural resource protection and environmental enhancement

landscape character -- - --

townscape character 0 0 0

archeological assets - 0 -

historic buildings - - -

historic landscapes - - -

biodiversity - - -

surface water resources - 0 -

groundwater resources - - -

capacity of flood plains - - --

Creating sustainable communities

local air quality U + +

local noise environment -- - --

local vibration environment - 0 0

community integrity 0 - 0

pedestrian access 0 + +

access to public transport + + ++

public transport interchange + + ++

mental well-being 0 0 0

physical health 0 + +

health inequalities 0 0 0

road traffic accidents 0 0 0

crime and fear of crime 0 0 0

economic competitiveness ++ U ++

wider economic growth and

employment ++ U ++

employment ++ U ++

Support planned

development - ++ ++

Regeneration + ++ ++

Sustainable consumption and production

land resources - - -

brownfield sites + + +

waste protection - + +

primary material resources - - -

Reflections on HS2 Case

• Comprehensive coverage of indicators

• Influential in changing route and route design

• Transparency in categories that win and lose

• No clear policy framework

• No sense of fit to broader sustainability goals

• Not commissioned to ask if it was worth doing

Conclusions – It is counting

• Significant increase in evidence base

• Greater transparency in decision-making processes

• Pathways least consistent with direction of sustainable development avoided

• Possible to deploy to make specific projects meet more of goals (see also GreenLITES)

Conclusions – But not enough

• As yet no consistent policy position on green growth

• No evidence of limits being a strong influence on pathways

• Compromises are fudged in +++ -- overarching summaries

• Worrying lack of joining up across spatial scales (EU-National, National-Local)

• Modal siloes continue to exist and limit integration (absent in particular national strategy)

• Cross-sectoral decision-making even further removed