sustainable energy development: the next decade€¦ · harsha wickramasinghe sri lanka sustainable...
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Sustainable Energy Development: the Next DecadeHarsha WickramasingheSri Lanka Sustainable Energy Authority
Outline
▪ What is happening in the energy sector
▪ Role of sustainable energy in the finite energy realm
▪ Energy efficiency: the first fuel
▪ Renewable energy: the last resort
Energy Demand Growth
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
4501
98
0
19
86
19
92
19
98
20
04
20
10
20
16
PJ
Household, Commercial & Others Transport Industry
Electricity Demand Profile
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,200
0:30
1:30
2:30
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MW
2014 2013 2012 2010 2007 2005 2003 2000
Energy Sector Outlook -2013
CountryPopulation
(Million)TPES PJ / year TPES GJ/capita
Sri Lanka 20 472 23 Malaysia 30 3,401 114
Japan 127 18,936 149 World 7,162 559,817 78
Note: TPES - Total Primary Energy Supply Source: International Energy Agency
▪ If Sri Lanka approaches the current world averagetotal annual energy requirement of 80GJ/capita in2030 …
▪ It will be a four fold increase of the present annualenergy requirement of 23 GJ/capita.
Energy Sector Outlook -2030
Demand Sector 2015 2030 BAU 2030 SES
Industry 95 379 189
Transport 107 430 143
Households / Commercial 171 683 228
Total Primary Energy Supply 373 1,491 560
Per capita energy GJ/year 23 83 31
Note: BAU – Business as Usual, SES – Sustainable Energy Scenario
The path to self-sufficiency
National Energy Policy & Strategies
1. Assuring Energy Security2. Providing Access to Energy Services3. Providing Energy Services at the Optimum Cost to the National Economy 4. Improving Energy Efficiency and Conservation5. Enhancing Self Reliance6. Caring for the Environment7. Enhancing the Share of Renewable Energy8. Strengthening the Governance in the Energy Sector9. Securing Future Energy Infrastructure10. Providing Opportunities for Innovation and Entrepreneurship
Sustainable Energy
▪ Energy Efficiency – the first fuel
– Changing the way we use energy
– Transforming many markets (painful changes)▪ Appliances
▪ Systems
▪ Renewable Energy may be the last resort
– Again a painful conversion▪ Yet, widely available to the human kind
What we have
▪ Renewable energy has become prominent
▪ We have four major renewable energy resources
– Biomass (2,400MW)
– Hydro (873MW)
– Solar (?)
– Wind (5,653MW)
Likely developments
▪ Solar ground mounted 30MW by 2017, 60MW by 2018, further 100MW by 2019
▪ Three Solar parks (100MW) in different locations by 2020
▪ 200MW of rooftop capacity by 2020, more within next five years
▪ Around 400MW of wind in four locations by 2020
▪ Around 200MW of hydropower by 2020 and no more
▪ Biomass, Waste..?
Solar potential
Sun Path Diagram of Colombo
Comparison of good / bad locations▪ Daily sum of GHI
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Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
kWh
/m2
Seetha Eliya Nadukuka
Rooftop Scheme▪ Net Metering (Old Scheme)
– Energy to energy cancellation, no payment involved
▪ Net Accounting– Slightly reduced bill due to own use of solar electricity,
excess exported and paid at LKR19.82/kWh LCoE(translated to LKR22.00/kWh in first seven years and LKR15.50/kWh for the next thirteen years)
▪ Net+Plus– No relationship to electricity connection, total solar
electricity exported and paid at LKR19.82/kWh LCoE
Net Metering
Net Accounting
Typical Home Use (No Solar)
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
00:00:00 03:11:57 06:23:54 09:35:51 12:47:48 15:59:46 19:11:43 22:23:40
WeekendWeekday
Typical Home Use (With Solar 1kW)
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
00:00:00 03:11:57 06:23:54 09:35:51 12:47:48 15:59:46 19:11:43 22:23:40
Weekend
Weekday
Micro Power Producer
Net Result of the Schemes
DescriptionNet-
meteringNet-
accountingNet+Plus
Electricity use kWh/month 119 119 119
Original bill value USD/month 13.71 13.71 13.71
Post project bill value USD/month 0.25 5.14 13.71
Bill reduction USD/month 13.45 8.57 -
Earnings from exports USD/month - 10.31 15.33
Total gain USD/month 13.45 18.87 15.33
Simple payback period years 7.4 5.0 6.5
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2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Capa
city
MW
Num
ber
of C
onne
ctio
ns
Connections Capacity MW
A Simple Intervention▪ Sooryabala Sangrama (Battle for Solar Power)
– 180MW on rooftops
– 250+ companies (mostly startups)
– 5,000 employed (3,500 direct + 1,500 indirect)
– 1 Panel manufacturing company
▪ 18,000+ installations with total capacity 180MW
– Estimated contribution 250GWh / year
– Approximately 1.7% of total generation required
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- 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Spec
ific
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st L
KR
M/k
W
Size of Installation kW
Thank you..!
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