Sustainable Development Indicators relevant to Climate Change: India’s ExperienceProdipto Ghosh, Ph.DDistinguished FellowThe Energy & Resources InstituteUNDESA: Expert Group Meeting15-16 October 2008

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Outline of Presentation

The name of the game! Relevant normalizations of indicators Sustainability trajectories The real issue for developing countries:

adaptation

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The Name of the Game: Blame India, China, Brazil…

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HDI and Energy ConsumptionHDI and Energy Consumption

• Modern energy use is critical for developmentModern energy use is critical for development• Over 450 million people without access to electricity.Over 450 million people without access to electricity.• India needs GDP growth of 8%+ over the next 25 years to lift India needs GDP growth of 8%+ over the next 25 years to lift

the bottom 40% of her citizens to an acceptable level of the bottom 40% of her citizens to an acceptable level of economic and social well being. This is not possible without economic and social well being. This is not possible without increased energy use.increased energy use.

• We must be able to pursue accelerated social and economic We must be able to pursue accelerated social and economic development, and poverty eradication. GDP growth rate of development, and poverty eradication. GDP growth rate of 8%+ per annum over 20-30 years is essential to lift the 8%+ per annum over 20-30 years is essential to lift the bottom 40% of our population to an acceptable quality of bottom 40% of our population to an acceptable quality of life. Development and poverty eradication is also an life. Development and poverty eradication is also an imperative for adaptation to climate changeimperative for adaptation to climate change

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Energy is Critical For Development Energy is Critical For Development and Improving HDIand Improving HDI

0

1,500

3,000

4,500

6,000

7,500

9,000

Per

capita e

nerg

y c

onsum

ption (

kgoe)

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

HD

I

kgoe HDI Linear (HDI )

5

666

Present day per capita COPresent day per capita CO22 emissions emissions

- those at the top of the curve want the ones at the - those at the top of the curve want the ones at the bottom to take action to combat climate change!bottom to take action to combat climate change!

Cumulative per capita emissions from 1850 to 2004 for Cumulative per capita emissions from 1850 to 2004 for UK and USA is 1100 tons! For India it is 23 tons!UK and USA is 1100 tons! For India it is 23 tons!

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Relevant Normalizations of Sustainability Indicators:

8 8Source: TERI analysis (various data sources)

CO2 emission from food sector--from Field (production) to Table (processed food)-excluding cooking

0.1 0.1

1.7 1.8 1.9 2.02.2

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

2.25

2.50

India China UnitedKingdom

Germany Netherlands Australia United States

ton

CO

2/m

kca

l of

food

ene

rgy

Production related CO2 emission (tonne CO2/million kcal of food energy)

Processing related CO2 emissions (tonne CO2/million kcal of food energy)

Total CO2 emissions (tonne CO2/million kcal of food energy)

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Into the Trash It Goes The food an American family throws away each month. New York Times: May 18, 2008.

10 10

30

47.353

70

0

20

40

60

80

US Germany Japan India

48

10

23

0

5

10

15

20

25

USA UK Germany India

Average rate of recycling (%) (excl. re-use)

GHG emissions from waste (gm/’000$GDPppp)

Municipal solid waste

Source: TERI Analysis, based on National Communications of different countries

11 11

16

118

193

0

50

100

150

200

250

India EU (15 countries) USA

Estimated CO2 emissions from passenger transport

(gm/passenger-km)

Source: TERI Analysis, various data sources

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The Importance of Development Trajectories:

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Sustainable Development Trajectories: Kuznets curves: During a country’s development, several

development related indicators at first worsen, and then improve

Historically, with environmental Kuznets curves, present developed societies have shown turning points at c. $ 6000-8000 PPP per capita

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Income: PPP$ per capita

Ind

icat

or

c. PPP$ 7000

(Typical for current developed countries)

Schematic representation of the Environmental Kuznets curve

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Country Turning Point

PPP$ per capita

Sri Lanka 4,092

Bangladesh 1,377

India 501

Japan 22,675

Switzerland 26,122

Norway 10, 274

Turning Points: Energy Intensity Parameter: Kgoe per PPP$ GDP

Source: Econometric analysis by TERI, based on IEA data, 2008

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India’s turning point for energy intensity was reached in the 1980s

Energy intensity of GDP (kgoe/$ 2000 PPP) based on IEA data

0.15

0.17

0.19

0.21

0.23

0.25

0.27

0.29

0.311971

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

TPES

(kgo

e)/G

DP

($20

00 P

PP)

Source: Planning Commission

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0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

CO2 2004/GDP in 2000$ at PPP % of US GDP in 2000$ at PPP per Capita % of US

The fossil fuel CO2 intensity of the Indian economy in 2004 was the same as Japan; better than Germany!

Data: “Growth and CO2 Emissions – How do different countries fare?” : Roger Bacon and Soma Bhattacharya: World Bank, 2007:

1818

Source: BEE, 2007

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G Cal / tcs

9.3

9.08.9

8.88.7 8.7

8.48.3

8.18.0 7.9

7.77.6 7.5

7.3

7

7.5

8

8.5

9

9.5

10

199

0-9

1

199

1-9

2

199

2-9

3

199

3-9

4

199

4-9

5

199

5-9

6

199

6-9

7

199

7-9

8

199

8-9

9

199

9-0

0

20

00

-01

20

01-

02

20

02

-03

20

03

-04

20

04

-05

Specific Energy Consumption in Integrated Steel Plants

Source: Steel Authority of India Ltd.

22% reduction in SEC from 1990-91 to

2004-05

Actual impact higher as

share of D/R rising

2020

Source: BEE, 2007

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111 112 110

104 105102

97

91 8984 83 82

63 65

117120 122

60

80

100

120

91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05

Cement: Energy Consumption Profile(Dry Process - Wtd. Avg.)

650663

723

876857 846

816 815801

780 779 771 763 750742 734 729

600

650

700

750

800

850

900

91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05

TH

ER

MA

L

EN

ER

GY

KC

AL/K

G C

L.

ELEC

TR

ICA

LEN

ER

GY

KW

H/T

CEM

EN

T

BEST IN INDIA

BEST IN WORLD

Source: CMA

WET KILNS: INDIA 5% US 18%

SHARE OF BLENDED CEMENT OVER 60%

2222

Source: BEE, 2007

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India has the world’s most energy efficient oil refinery!

Source: Shell Global benchmarking study in ‘Energy & Loss’ performance

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Country SO2 SPM NOx Source

11 OECD

6,900 7,300 14,700 CRB

India 523 523 523 MK

Sources:CRB: Cole et.al., 1997; MK: Mukherjee and Kathuria, 2006

EKC Curves: Turning Points for Air Quality, PPP$ per capita

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Country BOD COD Study

32 Countries average

7,623 7,853 GK

India 548 1,668 TERI

EKC Curves: Water Quality: Turning Points for BOD and COD PPP$ per capita

Sources: GK: Grossman and Krueger, 1995; TERI: The Energy & Resources Institute, 2008

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The Real Climate Change Issue for Developing Countries: The Costs of Adaptation

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0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1997-98 1998-99 1999-2000

2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07

Years

Per

cen

t E

xpen

dit

ure

Expenditure on adaptation as % of total Govt. expenditure

Expenditure on adaptation as % of GDP

Reality check! India’s fiscal expenditures on programs directly related to adaptation to climate variability was 2.63% of GDP in 2006-07!

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Poverty alleviation and livelihood

preservation, 44.65%

Forest conservation, 0.49%

Health, 10.75%

Disaster management, 3.46%

Risk f inancing, 4.83%

Rural education and infrastructure,

26.85%

Crop improvement and research, 5.93%

Drought-proofing and f lood control, 3.04%

Where the money went…

Development is the best form of adaptation!

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India Doesn’t Need Lesson’s on Sustainability!

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